Author Topic: Coronavirus preparedness  (Read 120987 times)

Luz

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #650 on: March 17, 2020, 02:20:46 AM »
"Flatten the curve" is about saving lives and keeping the health sector from being completely overwhelmed, right? But is there a point where the risks involved in containment outweigh the benefits?

Perhaps, but it's way, way further down the line than where we are now.

When the health system is overwhelmed, the mortality rate goes to almost 10%. When controls are not put in place, the virus doubles its spread every couple of days. When these factors are combined, we end up with a situation that could kill as many as one in twelve people, leave quite a few others with lifelong medical complications, and (this is the icing on a particularly shitty cake) leaves us with a mountain of dead doctors and nurses and no way of quickly replacing them.

So if you think losing about 8% of the population in a few months, and facing the future with a medical profession that's lost huge numbers of practitioners, is an acceptable price...

Like a lot of people, this poster believes that age is the determining factor in the deaths. People are clinging to some very dodgy stats in that regard. They have absolutely no idea that they and their friends and their families and the guy in the corner store that gives him a free shot in his coffee are all at risk of a pretty nasty death RIGHT NOW. If you're heading off to the grocery store because you fancy a pepsi in the middle of a pandemic, you're dumb as dirt.

Hold on a second.  Where is your information that I, my friends, family, and elderly relatives are at risk of a pretty nasty death right now? Or that our current efforts of containment are effective? Or that economic depression (and all the ills that go with it) is not a serious concern? Or that I even like Pepsi?

runbikerun

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #651 on: March 17, 2020, 02:26:01 AM »
This really looks less like serious questioning and more like trolling.

But on the off chance that it's sincere:

1. Lombardy has had 13,272 coronavirus cases and 1,218 coronavirus deaths. This does not include deaths from other causes which were exacerbated by a lack of medical facilities.

2. The evidence from China is that social distancing and a heavy lockdown arrests the spread of the virus.

3. Seriously, this is on the front page of every newspaper website in the Western world. Asking for sources on this is like asking for a source on who won the Super Bowl.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #652 on: March 17, 2020, 02:28:10 AM »
"Flatten the curve" is about saving lives and keeping the health sector from being completely overwhelmed, right? But is there a point where the risks involved in containment outweigh the benefits?

Perhaps, but it's way, way further down the line than where we are now.

When the health system is overwhelmed, the mortality rate goes to almost 10%. When controls are not put in place, the virus doubles its spread every couple of days. When these factors are combined, we end up with a situation that could kill as many as one in twelve people, leave quite a few others with lifelong medical complications, and (this is the icing on a particularly shitty cake) leaves us with a mountain of dead doctors and nurses and no way of quickly replacing them.

So if you think losing about 8% of the population in a few months, and facing the future with a medical profession that's lost huge numbers of practitioners, is an acceptable price...

Like a lot of people, this poster believes that age is the determining factor in the deaths. People are clinging to some very dodgy stats in that regard. They have absolutely no idea that they and their friends and their families and the guy in the corner store that gives him a free shot in his coffee are all at risk of a pretty nasty death RIGHT NOW. If you're heading off to the grocery store because you fancy a pepsi in the middle of a pandemic, you're dumb as dirt.

Hold on a second.  Where is your information that I, my friends, family, and elderly relatives are at risk of a pretty nasty death right now? Or that our current efforts of containment are effective? Or that economic depression (and all the ills that go with it) is not a serious concern? Or that I even like Pepsi?

Do you read anything other than this forum? Coronavirus is pretty much all over the net right now, have you read any of it at all? Have you even tried to educate yourself on what is going on?

FYI, the UK decided to largely go with your approach. Then they ran some numbers, looked at some data and realised just how bad an idea that was. A bunch of scientists told them it was a stupid idea. Turns out they were right.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/new-data-new-policy-why-uks-coronavirus-strategy-has-changed

For the rest, I suggest you use a little know search engine called Google.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #653 on: March 17, 2020, 02:29:14 AM »
This really looks less like serious questioning and more like trolling.

But on the off chance that it's sincere:

1. Lombardy has had 13,272 coronavirus cases and 1,218 coronavirus deaths. This does not include deaths from other causes which were exacerbated by a lack of medical facilities.

2. The evidence from China is that social distancing and a heavy lockdown arrests the spread of the virus.

3. Seriously, this is on the front page of every newspaper website in the Western world. Asking for sources on this is like asking for a source on who won the Super Bowl.

Yeah. I need to stop feeding it because it's really starting to wind me up.

Luz

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #654 on: March 17, 2020, 02:33:43 AM »
No bitching or moaning was involved.
I was just asking if containment is effective when people are kept from working but they can still go to the grocery store.
Livelihoods are pretty important for survival. You need money to pay the rent, buy food, and pay for your medical care. What happens when millions of families lose their employer-sponsored health insurance due to job loss? That would put quite the burden on our health system. And how do we know that we're preventing that many deaths via our current efforts of containment? Like you said, we don't fully understand the situation. There's no harm in questioning whether the response to the pandemic has far-reaching effects and if it's even effective. Maybe there's a better way (one that doesn't cripple our economy meanwhile)?

This is suggested by people who have studied populations and viruses and survival rates and death rates all their lives. Maybe they know better than you what we're all facing. To me you don't seem to have a clue what's actually happening here. You seem to think that everyone is largely being inconvenienced to save a few lives. You don't seem to understand that there is no after this. There's no recovery here. There's no isolating for a few weeks and then everything goes back to normal. This is the start of a brand new way of managing society, and it's not going to be giant, unsustainable economic bubbles. How you think about livelihood now and how you think of it in two months time could well be world's apart.

By which people?  What exactly are they saying?  Do they talk about the conditions of quarantine and what makes it effective? What are economists saying? Are there talks among economists and public health specialists about the effects of both the pandemic and it's economic fallout and how the latter would affect the former? Truly just wanting to know.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #655 on: March 17, 2020, 02:36:49 AM »
No bitching or moaning was involved.
I was just asking if containment is effective when people are kept from working but they can still go to the grocery store.
Livelihoods are pretty important for survival. You need money to pay the rent, buy food, and pay for your medical care. What happens when millions of families lose their employer-sponsored health insurance due to job loss? That would put quite the burden on our health system. And how do we know that we're preventing that many deaths via our current efforts of containment? Like you said, we don't fully understand the situation. There's no harm in questioning whether the response to the pandemic has far-reaching effects and if it's even effective. Maybe there's a better way (one that doesn't cripple our economy meanwhile)?

This is suggested by people who have studied populations and viruses and survival rates and death rates all their lives. Maybe they know better than you what we're all facing. To me you don't seem to have a clue what's actually happening here. You seem to think that everyone is largely being inconvenienced to save a few lives. You don't seem to understand that there is no after this. There's no recovery here. There's no isolating for a few weeks and then everything goes back to normal. This is the start of a brand new way of managing society, and it's not going to be giant, unsustainable economic bubbles. How you think about livelihood now and how you think of it in two months time could well be world's apart.

By which people?  What exactly are they saying?  Do they talk about the conditions of quarantine and what makes it effective? What are economists saying? Are there talks among economists and public health specialists about the effects of both the pandemic and it's economic fallout and how the latter would affect the former? Truly just wanting to know.

Piss off, troll.

MoseyingAlong

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #656 on: March 17, 2020, 03:13:01 AM »
....
I understand that it is all in effort to "flatten the curve," but what good is it for people not to go to their jobs if they can still go to the grocery store and bank? How much is it reducing viral spread, and at what price? Containment to the extent that it affects people's livelihoods seems like a terrible idea, but I must be missing something. "Flatten the curve" is about saving lives and keeping the health sector from being completely overwhelmed, right? But is there a point where the risks involved in containment outweigh the benefits?

Luz, there are a lot of questions and pros/cons to consider. I do think a complete lock-down for an unknown period of time will have long-reaching effects. Not just for the economy but also psychologically. I can only imagine what this is doing to a lot of people's mental health and ability to deal with the world.

People are going to die of something and we can't wrap everyone in cotton wool. As has already been brought up, the flu and cars are involved in a lot of deaths every year and we don't go to these extreme measures to prevent those deaths. I expect that in a couple years, this coronavirus will just be another thing we deal with.

Luz

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #657 on: March 17, 2020, 03:35:35 AM »
This really looks less like serious questioning and more like trolling.

But on the off chance that it's sincere:

1. Lombardy has had 13,272 coronavirus cases and 1,218 coronavirus deaths. This does not include deaths from other causes which were exacerbated by a lack of medical facilities.

2. The evidence from China is that social distancing and a heavy lockdown arrests the spread of the virus.

3. Seriously, this is on the front page of every newspaper website in the Western world. Asking for sources on this is like asking for a source on who won the Super Bowl.

It's completely sincere. I'm trying to make sense of it in both economic and health terms. And to do that, there seems to be plenty of nuances to sort through. I did a little research just now, and it appears that the success in China in curbing the outbreak was not in lock down measures, but in testing and quarantine.  In an NPR interview, Bruce Aylward, assistant director general of WHO expounds on this:

"In short, it wasn't a lockdown everywhere. That's the wrong way to portray China's approach to the disease. And that's leading to some fundamental confusion and failure to do the right things."

Is Italy's decision to impose severe lockdown-like restrictions in vast swaths of its northern region the right approach?

Aylward says he's reluctant to comment specifically on Italy's decision because he's not familiar with the epidemiological data there. "One of the challenges with Italy right now is just the amount of data," he says. "They're just running so fast to catch up with the cases, it's difficult to understand what's driving the transmission. Because that's what you want to use to drive your strategy — what you cancel, what you suspend, etc. It should be driven by the way the virus is moving."

Still, Aylward says, there is indeed a threshold where it becomes necessary to impose major restrictions on movement. That happens when there is substantial "community-level transmission, where it's spreading in [so] many, many different environments, you can't even differentiate clusters." That's what occurred in Wuhan.

But even in those instances, says Aylward, it's crucial not to rely on restrictions of movement as the sole remedy. Public health authorities need to be prepared for a rebound in cases when movement restrictions are lifted and cases start to tick up again."

(https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/08/813401722/who-official-says-coronavirus-containment-remains-possible)

I'm not arguing a point. Simply had a question for the forum (is lockdown effective, especially considering the far-reaching implications?). And I'm glad I kept asking, because it appears that it may not be as effective as we would like to think and there's a huge price to pay when millions of families lose their income because of it. Worth it, IMO, if it's an effective measure. Terrible idea if it's not what will stem the tide.  I like what Aylward said: you have to drive your strategy by in-depth understanding. And for in-depth understanding, you have to ask questions that might bring ire or that people think are foolish, I'd add.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 03:47:36 AM by Luz »

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #658 on: March 17, 2020, 03:48:24 AM »
Why is there so little mention of the economy on this thread?

I just read that several Bay Area counties are under orders to "shelter at home" for 3 weeks (if not longer).
I was surprised to learn that, among other things, "shelter at home" means not going to work (for those without the option to work from home and in industries deemed non-essential). Workers facing inevitable job losses were encouraged to apply for unemployment or disability.

I understand that it is all in effort to "flatten the curve," but what good is it for people not to go to their jobs if they can still go to the grocery store and bank? How much is it reducing viral spread, and at what price? Containment to the extent that it affects people's livelihoods seems like a terrible idea, but I must be missing something. "Flatten the curve" is about saving lives and keeping the health sector from being completely overwhelmed, right? But is there a point where the risks involved in containment outweigh the benefits?

If you think that the only people getting seriously ill and dying are over 80 with heart disease ie not you, you are sadly mistaken. This is a viral pandemic and one that we don't fully understand. You're bitching and moaning about livelihoods when the measures are to save lives. Including yours.

+1000

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #659 on: March 17, 2020, 03:54:18 AM »
Nearly everything about both the coronavirus and the economic effects of various forms of shutdown is an unknown: all there is are best guesses based on limited information.

I agree that the economic effects of a prolonged shutdown are so far probably underestimated.  My suspicion is that this is not just a recession (2 quarters of negative growth) because that would need a return to economic growth from June 2020 onwards, which at present is looking pretty uncertain.

If the spread of the virus can't be stopped by the start of summer and/or an effective vaccine created and rolled out by that time then it looks as though we could be headed for an economic depression.  Google tells me there is no one accepted definition of an economic depression but that the main indicators would be -

* A fall in GDP of 10% or more
* A fall in GDP for over 3 years
*Very high unemployment over 20%
*Deflation
*Asset / credit contraction

That would be a completely new economic reality for all of us, upending everything we have taken for granted for decades.  But the thing to remember is that an economic depression can be survived, even if uncomfortable, and is preferable to a 10% death rate from coronavirus, which would be the textbook definition of "decimation".
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 05:40:51 AM by former player »

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #660 on: March 17, 2020, 04:16:33 AM »

On the vaccine,  despite the rapid progress, I've heard it won't be available to the public for a year to 18 months.

Dicey

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #661 on: March 17, 2020, 05:38:36 AM »
Today, (Well, yesterday now. Thanks, insomnia.) DH got a phone call from Kaiser (our giant HMO), advising him he was due for routine labs and not to forget to come in. WTF, Kaiser? You're dragging otherwise healthy people living in
"Shelter in place" counties in to the hospital's labs? So incredibly tone-deaf! 

Cranky

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #662 on: March 17, 2020, 06:45:57 AM »
My dentist office cancelled my routine cleaning for the end of the week "per new state guidelines." They are only seeing emergency patients. The state of Ohio wants them to hand over their supplies, too.

Meanwhile, I walked down to the IGA this morning. They were pretty well stocked at 7:30 AM and it was mostly old people (like me!) there. Lots of signs about covering your mouth if you cough or sneeze. They've taken out all the self serve stuff. A delivery guy came in and they made him Purell his hands before he unloaded anything.

I sprayed my shoes with lysol spray and left them out on the porch.

Zamboni

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #663 on: March 17, 2020, 06:48:21 AM »
President Trump has tweeted multiple times, including this morning, about what he likes to call and write as the "Chinese Virus." People tell him to please stop calling it that and he just doubles down.

My brother has adopted small children from China. He lives in a nearly entirely white area of Washington state, and earlier this week someone fired multiple gunshots at his house.

Words have consequences.

Please don't vote for this racist asshole.

Edited to add that, since this incident, my brother now has two shiny new pump action shotguns . . . and he taught his oldest to shoot. So that is his COVID-19 preparedness.

« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 06:58:51 AM by Zamboni »

Zamboni

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #664 on: March 17, 2020, 06:56:49 AM »
Today, (Well, yesterday now. Thanks, insomnia.) DH got a phone call from Kaiser (our giant HMO), advising him he was due for routine labs and not to forget to come in. WTF, Kaiser? You're dragging otherwise healthy people living in
"Shelter in place" counties in to the hospital's labs? So incredibly tone-deaf!

Yeah, I tried to talk my step mom out of going into Kaiser for a routine appointment later this week. They were also talking about going to get more groceries, although I am positive they do not need anything from that store at this time. My dad has so many co-morbidities that there is probably no way he can survive getting this particular virus, but people are just oblivious I guess.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #665 on: March 17, 2020, 07:22:39 AM »
It is very obvious that the number of cases i the US and some other places are vastly underreported. They might be so more places, but its les obvious. As of now the US has 81 deaths and 4744 confirmed cases. Norway has 3 deaths so far, but 1420 confirmed cases. Norway with a population just over 5 million has conducted more tests than the US with a population of over 300 million. Norway has now switched to tested only key personel (mostly health care workers and other essential staff) and people with serious symptoms. Country has been in some sort of shut-down since Thursday last week. Most of the service industry is shut down, a ton of people work from home, schools are closed countrywide, the borders are pretty much closed and no gatherings take place.

If the US numbers don't explode in the coming two weeks (provided the US actually manages to test the population) I'm very surpised. The number of infections in the US can get pretty nasty. There is also some chatter about a meaningful amount of the population not believing in anything that comes from the government so controlling the population is expected to be harder than in countries where trust in the public sector is much higher and you can't pay yourself ahead in the queue and everyone is covered by the health system. So the aim is basically to manage the spread within the availability of intensive care beds and assumed need.

Our health folks feel the situation is starting to get under control here - we are number 2 or 3 in confirmed cases per capita, but also in the top 3 in part of the population tested. The next couple of weeks will be crucial - they will provide a lot of intel on how effective the shutdown has been. Some promising signs are starting to emerge from Italy, but it's still early to call.

BTW the UK is starting to abandon its strategy and implement social distancing.

It might have been posted here earlier - this is a very good article with some very illustrative graphs:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

The coronavirus is coming to you.
Its coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
Its a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 07:27:28 AM by habaneroNorway »

Sibley

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #666 on: March 17, 2020, 07:28:26 AM »
Today, (Well, yesterday now. Thanks, insomnia.) DH got a phone call from Kaiser (our giant HMO), advising him he was due for routine labs and not to forget to come in. WTF, Kaiser? You're dragging otherwise healthy people living in
"Shelter in place" counties in to the hospital's labs? So incredibly tone-deaf!

Yeah, I tried to talk my step mom out of going into Kaiser for a routine appointment later this week. They were also talking about going to get more groceries, although I am positive they do not need anything from that store at this time. My dad has so many co-morbidities that there is probably no way he can survive getting this particular virus, but people are just oblivious I guess.

Was able to talk my mom out of the dentist, but not the eye doctor. Given the eye doctor is more of a critical thing (glaucoma treatment) and the dentist was a cleaning, am on the fence. But really, she's only semi-onboard with shelter in place.

TomTX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #667 on: March 17, 2020, 07:28:44 AM »
My dentist office cancelled my routine cleaning for the end of the week "per new state guidelines." They are only seeing emergency patients. The state of Ohio wants them to hand over their supplies, too.

Just as an FYI, there was a recent dental conference with 15,000 attendees and numerous confirmed cases of COVID-19.

TomTX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #668 on: March 17, 2020, 07:31:06 AM »
If the US numbers don't explode in the coming two weeks (provided the US actually manages to test the population) I'm very surpised. The number of infections in the US can get pretty nasty. There is also some chatter about a meaningful amount of the population not believing in anything that comes from the government so controlling the population is expected to be harder than in countries where trust in the public sector is much higher and you can't pay yourself ahead in the queue and everyone is covered by the health system. So the aim is basically to manage the spread within the availability of intensive care beds and assumed need.

I've come at the calculation from multiple approaches, and didn't even use pessimistic numbers (ie, I used a 3.5 day doubling time rather than the 2 days many countries are seeing) - middle of the road estimate is 500,000 current infections in the USA, the majority of which are recently infected and show no symptoms.

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #669 on: March 17, 2020, 07:31:40 AM »
My employer has moved to emergency measures, only employees critical to business continuity are to go on-site, everyone else is to work from home until Mar 27.  This may be extended depending how things go in our area.  We manufacture a lot of cold and flu medications, so people are going to be needing our products, or I suspect they'd be shutting down the plant as well.  I'm a little concerned that they may stop paying hourly employees once the work we can do remotely dries up, but if so, we have enough buffer to weather it without having to sell investments.

DH is still required to go in to work, which we are not happy about because he takes public transit.  Fortunately yesterday he said he was the only person on the bus, so hopefully the risk is low.  Washing hands and sanitizing frequently.  He is going to continue asking to work from home regardless, hopefully in the next few days this is accepted.

We had just done a regular stock up at BJ's and the bulk goods store before this became big, so we have plenty of food, TP, tissues, etc.  If this goes on more than 2 weeks, our diet will get very boring though.  There's definitely a shortage of fresh food - DH tried to stop after work yesterday for a few things, and the store was out of eggs and milk, and very limited on fruits and veggies.

We already take off our shoes in the house, with a small area around the door to keep shoes.

I was going to pick up my new glasses and contacts, but the store closed before I could.  Fortunately I have an extra pair of contacts, so I should be ok until they open again.  Unfortunately my old glasses are broken, so I don't have the option to stop using contacts for the duration.

gaja

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #670 on: March 17, 2020, 09:28:21 AM »
President Trump has tweeted multiple times, including this morning, about what he likes to call and write as the "Chinese Virus." People tell him to please stop calling it that and he just doubles down.

My brother has adopted small children from China. He lives in a nearly entirely white area of Washington state, and earlier this week someone fired multiple gunshots at his house.

Words have consequences.

Please don't vote for this racist asshole.

Edited to add that, since this incident, my brother now has two shiny new pump action shotguns . . . and he taught his oldest to shoot. So that is his COVID-19 preparedness.

That sounds terrible. Poor kids!

Linea_Norway

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #671 on: March 17, 2020, 10:35:19 AM »
It is very obvious that the number of cases i the US and some other places are vastly underreported. They might be so more places, but its les obvious. As of now the US has 81 deaths and 4744 confirmed cases. Norway has 3 deaths so far, but 1420 confirmed cases. Norway with a population just over 5 million has conducted more tests than the US with a population of over 300 million. Norway has now switched to tested only key personel (mostly health care workers and other essential staff) and people with serious symptoms. Country has been in some sort of shut-down since Thursday last week. Most of the service industry is shut down, a ton of people work from home, schools are closed countrywide, the borders are pretty much closed and no gatherings take place.

If the US numbers don't explode in the coming two weeks (provided the US actually manages to test the population) I'm very surpised. The number of infections in the US can get pretty nasty. There is also some chatter about a meaningful amount of the population not believing in anything that comes from the government so controlling the population is expected to be harder than in countries where trust in the public sector is much higher and you can't pay yourself ahead in the queue and everyone is covered by the health system. So the aim is basically to manage the spread within the availability of intensive care beds and assumed need.

Our health folks feel the situation is starting to get under control here - we are number 2 or 3 in confirmed cases per capita, but also in the top 3 in part of the population tested. The next couple of weeks will be crucial - they will provide a lot of intel on how effective the shutdown has been. Some promising signs are starting to emerge from Italy, but it's still early to call.

BTW the UK is starting to abandon its strategy and implement social distancing.

It might have been posted here earlier - this is a very good article with some very illustrative graphs:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

The coronavirus is coming to you.
Its coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
Its a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.


I think Norway might have ten times as many infected as the official confirmed numbers. As per 8nstructions, if you feel sick, you are not supposed to report it anywhere, unless you really need a doctor. But as most of the population now keeps themselves at home, it might get under control.

I have been running some numbers. Population of Noway ca 5 mil. If everyone would get infected, 15-20% get sick, and 5% need a respirator, then 250 000 will need a respirator. We have only 4000 in total.
I hope the number that needs a respirator is a lot lower than 5% of the infected.

Omy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #672 on: March 17, 2020, 11:14:18 AM »
Hopefully new treatment protocols reduce the severe cases very very soon, and vaccines are developed asap (which will be longer to get out).

I think this has to be the focus to get it under control. Countries are going to need to work together to see what works and what doesn't in severe cases. I'm hoping a cocktail of meds we already have available will be employed to control the most severe cases.

Linea_Norway

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #673 on: March 17, 2020, 02:00:48 PM »
Assuming people need a respirator (same as what we call a ventilator?) for 4 weeks, and no one is using them now (!), does this work out to you need to only have 1000 cases per month needing a ventilator?  Which means we have to extend the curve of infection up to 2 years. 

Modelling by a Canadian researcher shown on CBC last night showed over 600 days til the outbreak and attendant social distancing swings were done and we were 'finished' with the virus infecting people (my layperson words, not theirs).  (That would assume people become immune and no serious mutations in the virus I think.)

Yikes either way...this is not a quick return to 'normal' if that's even possible.  Hopefully new treatment protocols reduce the severe cases very very soon, and vaccines are developed asap (which will be longer to get out).

I wouldn't want to stay at home for 600 days, especially since we have to move out in a few months. But even then. They can't keep the schools closed forever, either, I would think.
A vaccine would take approximate 18 months to develop. That is shorter than 600 days, I hope.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #674 on: March 17, 2020, 02:09:38 PM »
My grimmer viewpoint is that at some point in time the population will just have to accept the fact that a lot of people will die from this - you cannot shut down a country for a year or more. China did it for one region, and much more shutdown than is doable in the west.

But I ran some numbers today - if we take worst case - everyone in the country gets infected, the probability of statistical me (male, 40-45y old) is pretty much the same as dying from something else any given year (about 0.3%). If there is one thing that has become clear to me the last weeks is how vastly people underestimate the danger of life itself.

Metalcat

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #675 on: March 17, 2020, 02:35:18 PM »
My grimmer viewpoint is that at some point in time the population will just have to accept the fact that a lot of people will die from this - you cannot shut down a country for a year or more. China did it for one region, and much more shutdown than is doable in the west.

But I ran some numbers today - if we take worst case - everyone in the country gets infected, the probability of statistical me (male, 40-45y old) is pretty much the same as dying from something else any given year (about 0.3%). If there is one thing that has become clear to me the last weeks is how vastly people underestimate the danger of life itself.

I don't think anyone is expecting to prevent the majority of deaths, they're attempting to slow the roll of the inevitable spread through the population so that the medical resources can have a chance to keep up.

Flattening the curve isn't so much about preventing infection, it's about slowing the rate of infection. It's about preventing as much chaos as possible while people die.

Don't worry, the people generating these models already know that many people will die.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #676 on: March 17, 2020, 02:41:52 PM »

Flattening the curve isn't so much about preventing infection, it's about slowing the rate of infection. It's about preventing as much chaos as possible while people die.

Don't worry, the people generating these models already know that many people will die.

Yeah, agree. But it is strongly undercommunicated that a lot of people will die from this regardless. Albeit a lot fewer if the curve can be flattened so health care can keep up.


Metalcat

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #677 on: March 17, 2020, 02:58:53 PM »

Flattening the curve isn't so much about preventing infection, it's about slowing the rate of infection. It's about preventing as much chaos as possible while people die.

Don't worry, the people generating these models already know that many people will die.

Yeah, agree. But it is strongly undercommunicated that a lot of people will die from this regardless. Albeit a lot fewer if the curve can be flattened so health care can keep up.

Is it though?

The models are pretty clear. There are thousands of "flatten the curve" memes out there that make it pretty clear that the current efforts don't aim to prevent spread or death, just slow it down and prevent *preventable deaths* by providing medical interventions when needed.

It seems pretty transparent to me.

Omy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #678 on: March 17, 2020, 03:11:46 PM »
There are still a lot of people who spout flu stats vs covid-19 stats and respond that this is not nearly as bad as the flu. I keep wanting to shake them and tell them to read and look at the math...and this has barely started! What happened to the ability to think critically??!!

erutio

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #679 on: March 17, 2020, 03:14:16 PM »
S just HTF in Chicago and Illinois. 

the_fixer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #680 on: March 17, 2020, 03:18:26 PM »
S just HTF in Chicago and Illinois.
Care to Elaborate?


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Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #681 on: March 17, 2020, 03:31:44 PM »
Why is there so little mention of the economy on this thread?

I just read that several Bay Area counties are under orders to "shelter at home" for 3 weeks (if not longer).
I was surprised to learn that, among other things, "shelter at home" means not going to work (for those without the option to work from home and in industries deemed non-essential). Workers facing inevitable job losses were encouraged to apply for unemployment or disability.

I understand that it is all in effort to "flatten the curve," but what good is it for people not to go to their jobs if they can still go to the grocery store and bank? How much is it reducing viral spread, and at what price? Containment to the extent that it affects people's livelihoods seems like a terrible idea, but I must be missing something. "Flatten the curve" is about saving lives and keeping the health sector from being completely overwhelmed, right? But is there a point where the risks involved in containment outweigh the benefits?

You know what else decimates an economy?  A lot of dead workers, including the people supposed to keep the survivors alive and well.  If you don't think that it will affect livelihoods when the owner of that restaurant dies, so the restaurant closes, and his dry-cleaner no longer gets his business, and he doesn't pick up his morning coffee anymore, he doesn't buy groceries (I hear the dead don't have much of an appetite), and he no longer gasses up his car for his drive to work.

Some of that will be made up by the increased business to funeral homes and coffin-makers, who may end up buying more coffees, but certainly it won't be a direct offset. 

ixtap

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #682 on: March 17, 2020, 03:33:29 PM »
Evidently, extreme testing and isolation of the infected is quite effective if implemented immediately. Too bad we turned down that opportunity while it was available.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #683 on: March 17, 2020, 03:56:22 PM »
Hoarding, US-style. The MMM term "Costco run" is never gonna mean the same to me again.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1240008101677457411?

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #684 on: March 17, 2020, 04:03:56 PM »
Both the US and China are starting medication trials, and China has just approved a treatment drug.

US: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/us/coronavirus-us-american-treatment-trial/index.html

China: https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/china-approves-favilavir-covid-19/

Luz

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #685 on: March 17, 2020, 04:05:32 PM »
Evidently, extreme testing and isolation of the infected is quite effective if implemented immediately. Too bad we turned down that opportunity while it was available.

That's what I've been wondering. Lock downs seem pretty ineffective without testing and quarantine of the sick. The last numbers I saw showed that South Korea tested at a rate of 20,000 people per day while the US had run 11,000 tests in total.
It also appears that lock downs in places like Italy don't require people to stay home from work (if they can't work remotely).
I have no doubt that containment makes sense. But we (in the US) seem to be going about it quite poorly.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #686 on: March 17, 2020, 04:13:59 PM »
S just HTF in Chicago and Illinois.
Care to Elaborate?

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Illinois just had its first COVID-19 death, plus 55 new confirmed cases of COVID-19.  I assume that's it.

erutio

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #687 on: March 17, 2020, 05:39:36 PM »
S just HTF in Chicago and Illinois.
Care to Elaborate?

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Illinois just had its first COVID-19 death, plus 55 new confirmed cases of COVID-19.  I assume that's it.

22 cases in one nursing home confirmed today.  So IL is going the WA path.

Sibley

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #688 on: March 17, 2020, 06:08:51 PM »
S just HTF in Chicago and Illinois.
Care to Elaborate?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Illinois just had its first COVID-19 death, plus 55 new confirmed cases of COVID-19.  I assume that's it.

22 cases in one nursing home confirmed today.  So IL is going the WA path.

The sad thing is, I don't need to even look. I know which nursing home. I've driven by it many times. I know that most of the people there will be dead in a month.

SunnyDays

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #689 on: March 18, 2020, 10:00:47 AM »
Hoarding, US-style. The MMM term "Costco run" is never gonna mean the same to me again.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1240008101677457411?

That is quite something!  It's amazing that they have that many carts.  The people at the end of the line should just give up, because there will be nothing left by the time they get in.  Bet they're still waiting .......

StashingAway

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #690 on: March 18, 2020, 10:08:05 AM »
Hoarding, US-style. The MMM term "Costco run" is never gonna mean the same to me again.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1240008101677457411?

lol, they're probably all waiting on a group of 3 carts blocking the aisle by sampling some smoked sausage.

lutorm

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #691 on: March 18, 2020, 11:43:19 PM »
For those who think that it's only a problem for elderly:
Quote
American adults of all ages not just those in their 70s, 80s and 90s are being seriously sickened by the coronavirus, according to a report on nearly 2,500 cases in the United States.

The report, issued Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found that as in other countries the oldest patients were at greatest risk of becoming seriously ill or dying. But of the 508 coronavirus patients known to have been hospitalized in the United States, 38 percent were notably younger between 20 and 54. And nearly half of the 121 sickest patients studied those who were admitted to intensive care units were adults under 65.
Here's the report.

Would be interesting to know if this is because the virus hits differently here or if it's just because there are larger numbers of younger people infected because the older ones are isolating themselves more.

Imma

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #692 on: March 19, 2020, 01:21:32 AM »
 People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Hirondelle

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #693 on: March 19, 2020, 02:58:33 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

Linea_Norway

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #694 on: March 19, 2020, 04:35:58 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

In Norway, we have 6 deaths, average age 89. Some of them lived in an elderly home amd weren't taken to a hospital. I guess, because their chances for survival were to be neglected. The elderly home decided not to take them there.

Imma

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #695 on: March 19, 2020, 05:11:20 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

In Norway, we have 6 deaths, average age 89. Some of them lived in an elderly home amd weren't taken to a hospital. I guess, because their chances for survival were to be neglected. The elderly home decided not to take them there.

Good point, I don't know if this is universal or not. I know in our country we have open discussions on end of life treatment but in other countries this may be taboo.

My family member is not in ICU but they are late 80s and completely healthy and living independently until 2 weeks ago. Nevertheless we have discussed end of life care as a family for 15 years so we all know what their wishes are. The family member is still conscious and able to make decisions and so far they haven't changed their mind, so if it family would have to make a decision at some point we can be confident we act in their best interest.

This is also a topic that's discussed when someone enters a nursing home. Another relative decided she wanted to die in her own bed and not in hospital, so when she had a massive stroke the nursing home didn't call an ambulance but the family and the priest and she died without regaining consciousness in her own bed a few days later. She was very old, partially paralyzed and blind before her stroke. In other countries maybe people find it very strange to not to anything that's medically possible, but in our country people often prefer quality of life over quantity.

ender

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #696 on: March 19, 2020, 07:27:34 AM »
In Norway, we have 6 deaths, average age 89. Some of them lived in an elderly home amd weren't taken to a hospital. I guess, because their chances for survival were to be neglected. The elderly home decided not to take them there.

Italy's average age of death is also very high.

I'm wondering if the age of death on average will be considerably lower in the United States as nursing homes/assisted living places have had a lot more warning/prep than they did in Italy.

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #697 on: March 19, 2020, 07:41:32 AM »
I feel woefully unprepared for this. We are starting to run out of things it didn't occur to me to stock up on. Nothing too vital - of course - that is why I didn't think to stock up.

I wonder how the super-extreme prepper communities are doing? I bet they are gloating gloaters!!

Sibley

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #698 on: March 19, 2020, 07:53:06 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

In Norway, we have 6 deaths, average age 89. Some of them lived in an elderly home amd weren't taken to a hospital. I guess, because their chances for survival were to be neglected. The elderly home decided not to take them there.

Good point, I don't know if this is universal or not. I know in our country we have open discussions on end of life treatment but in other countries this may be taboo.

My family member is not in ICU but they are late 80s and completely healthy and living independently until 2 weeks ago. Nevertheless we have discussed end of life care as a family for 15 years so we all know what their wishes are. The family member is still conscious and able to make decisions and so far they haven't changed their mind, so if it family would have to make a decision at some point we can be confident we act in their best interest.

This is also a topic that's discussed when someone enters a nursing home. Another relative decided she wanted to die in her own bed and not in hospital, so when she had a massive stroke the nursing home didn't call an ambulance but the family and the priest and she died without regaining consciousness in her own bed a few days later. She was very old, partially paralyzed and blind before her stroke. In other countries maybe people find it very strange to not to anything that's medically possible, but in our country people often prefer quality of life over quantity.

In the US, my impression is overall we want to live forever so we deny, deny, deny. And when we DO die, its more often in a very nasty way. Why the heck is a 85 year old person getting aggressive chemo/radiation for cancer? I do not know, but it happens.

The nursing home NOT calling the ambulance would be considered neglect/abuse here. Even if it would be kinder.

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #699 on: March 19, 2020, 07:56:07 AM »
It should definitely be choice of the patient to pursue extreme measures if they so choose.

I do not believe coronavirus is an easy death? So I'd at least like to be knocked out on something if I couldn't breath.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!