Author Topic: Coronavirus preparedness  (Read 120962 times)

Capsu78

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #300 on: February 29, 2020, 10:26:06 AM »
With regard to the higher rate of males dying in China, one of the doctors noted that males smoke at higher rates than females in China, and that Covid-19 hits smokers and those with lung disease particularly hard. So, if males are more likely to be smokers in China, then they would likely be more impacted by coronavirus.

I think this is going to wind up being pretty important. I suspect we're going to see a lower fatality rate in the US compared to China partly because we have fewer smokers. Not to mention the air pollution in China; sometimes the smog is so thick you can barely see across the road. My roommate actually bought some respirators before the outbreak because he was thinking of taking a trip back to China and he was concerned about the pollution. 

Maybe if you are a smoker and you're concerned about Coronavirus you should use this as additional motivation to quit.

Yes, air quality in China makes most everybody a "smoker".  In my visit, during a period of decent air quality, after 3 days in "Peking" I woke up on day 4 coughing and hacking so bad, I felt like I had smoked 3 cigars the night before... (Haven't had a cigar since the early 2000's)
« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 10:27:55 AM by Capsu78 »

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #301 on: February 29, 2020, 10:46:19 AM »
Apparently the reason the WHO has not declared a pandemic yet has to do with certain bonds that will be triggered once certain criteria have been met. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/covid-19-outbreak-meets-another-catastrophe-bond-trigger-condition

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #302 on: February 29, 2020, 11:20:07 AM »
Your math is totally wrong.  You're picking and choosing.

When 80% of the cases have mild to no symptoms, you immediately have a "survival" rate of 80%.  The remaining 20% - let's say 20 people to make the math easy - break into two groups .  15 of them are sick and need some treatment but are not critical.  They may not be "recovered" yet, but there are also no indications that they are going to die.  That leaves 5 who are critical.  These cases take weeks or a month or more to play out.  In the process, maybe 1 or two of them die, and 3 or 4 of the cases are resolved with the patients surviving.

You're taking a snapshot in time of the 5 critical patients and declaring a 60% morbidity rate.  That's just bad math.  Do the math on all the cases and then react based on that data. 

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #303 on: February 29, 2020, 12:01:42 PM »
Just a few comments about fatality rates:

Simple division doesn’t work in a rapidly expanding epidemic; today’s deaths would need to be divided by case numbers from 1-2 weeks prior.

There are two different kinds of fatality rates. What you hear quoted are mostly case fatality rates - deaths divided by identified sick people who got tested positive for the virus. Very few mild or asymptomatic cases even get tested so those aren’t included in the denominator, making the death rate look worse than it is. Using some sophisticated math to try to account for this problem, this study came up with an overall fatality rate estimate ( including all infected people) of O.3 - 0.6%. This is probably a more realistic estimate than 2%.

https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/419

Note: fatalities out of Italy look higher than expected, likely the infection is just much more widespread than they know, or maybe the infected patients skewed particularly old? I haven’t seen data on that.


American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #304 on: February 29, 2020, 12:24:05 PM »
Simple division doesn’t work in a rapidly expanding epidemic; today’s deaths would need to be divided by case numbers from 1-2 weeks prior.

Or better yet, wait long enough to see how the cases fall out, such as I mentioned in an earlier post.  You never know how active cases will turn out, whether they are critical or not.  The following website shows a running total and death rate on closed cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And you can also break it down by country here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

It also allows you break it down by age.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #305 on: February 29, 2020, 12:51:07 PM »
Yes but that doesn’t account for the probably 90% of cases that are mild or asymptomatic - the true rate is probably 1/10th of that

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #306 on: February 29, 2020, 12:59:14 PM »
And given the numbers you posted, one tenth of that would be an overall fatality rate of 0.7% which is right in line with that study I posted.

ender

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #307 on: February 29, 2020, 01:02:20 PM »

And you can also break it down by country here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

It also allows you break it down by age.

Are you even reading your references?

The above site you are using to prove how dangerous this is explicitly says after clicking on "more details" under the 2% fatality rate:

Quote
At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #308 on: February 29, 2020, 02:09:11 PM »

And you can also break it down by country here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

It also allows you break it down by age.

Are you even reading your references?


Of course.  I specifically stated in multiple posts above that I was referring to total deaths vs. total recovered and also specifically mentioned "closed cases".  I even specifically stated "excluding active cases" earlier.   I never said that this rate would apply to everyone exposed to the virus.  But I think the data is alarming, none-the-less.

CrustyBadger

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #309 on: February 29, 2020, 03:14:12 PM »
Fatality rate really isn't that meaningful.  The bigger problem is the need for hospitalization in 10-20 percent of the infected population and the need for intensive care for many of those people (including needing intubation and ventilators)

Here's what's going on in Italy right now in the affected communities.  Remember as of last Wednesday, there were just 3 confirmed cases in Italy.   Now:

(machine translated news reports)

Quote
Meanwhile, hospitals are starting to go under stress in the areas most affected by the coronavirus. In particular in Cremona, the second most affected province in Lombardy on whose hospital (one of those in front of which the tent triage was mounted to lighten the emergency room, and on which, the Regional Welfare Councilor Giulio Gallera recalled, " somehow the whole area of ​​Lodigiano is burdened "), yesterday they were managing 81 infected, including about forty with pneumonia. During the night several patients got worse at the Cremona hospital and it was necessary to organize transfers to the intensive care of other hospitals. Four have been transferred to Niguarda.


https://www.ilgiorno.it/milano/cronaca/coronavirus-medico-san-paolo-contagiato-1.5048720

Quote
Hence the choice to ask the Government to continue , for example, with the stop to the activities of schools and universities. The goal, explained the experts, is to reduce the ability of an infected person to infect "from 2 / 2.5 people to less than one". Because already so, with the epidemic concentrated in four areas populated by 4% of the Lombards, the intensive care system - 900 bed ports, of which 105 have already been converted into "wards" by 15 hospitals - "is suffering", they say the experts. After the alarm on Wednesday night in Cremona, Thursday he touched the hospital in Lodi, with "51 serious hospitalizations of which 17 in intensive care to the Major", explained the governor.

The management of the hospital yesterday assured that the situation (after the transfer of 15 patients to the subintensive therapy to the Niguarda) has returned "absolutely under control". Meanwhile in Bergamo the 19 intensive care places are "saturated" by the nearby outbreak of Alzano Lombardo, says Marco Rizzi, head of the infectious diseases unit of Pope John XXIII -. We have allocated 100 places in the wards for less severe coronavirus cases, but they are no longer enough ». At the Asst in Cremona, explains the infectious disease specialist Angelo Pan, "we reorganized the hospital and in just a few days we went from 12 places dedicated to infectious diseases to 3-4 wards for patients with new coronavirus"

https://www.ilgiorno.it/cronaca/coronavirus-lombardia-1.5050626

They are running out of places to put the patients needing intensive care and have to transfer to other hospitals.   They are even running out of places to put the less severe cases.  They are reorganizing (which is what needs to happen and pandemic plans should be in place to anticipate that of course) but more patients means more PPE is needed which will also soon be in short supply....

And this is just the start of the epidemic outbreak in Lombady.  There are places to send the overflow intensive care patients.  But if in 2 more weeks there are 8 more hotspots just like here, there soon won't be any more place to send the severe or critcal cases each hospital can't handle.

The article talks about the discussion of reopening schools soon, but doing so will surely only make more cases show up.  Since people who are hospitalized need hospitalization (and ventilators even) for a couple of weeks... where are they going to put the new patients?

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #310 on: February 29, 2020, 04:17:03 PM »
Fatality rate really isn't that meaningful.  The bigger problem is the need for hospitalization in 10-20 percent of the infected population and the need for intensive care for many of those people (including needing intubation and ventilators)

Indeed, dying isn't the only concern.  Things sure went to hell quickly, there.  I don't see how we can expect much better here in the U.S.  It's a frightening thought.

As Bill Gates said, the coronavirus may be the 'once-in-a-century pathogen we've been worried about.'

former player

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #311 on: February 29, 2020, 04:26:10 PM »
Fatality rate really isn't that meaningful.  The bigger problem is the need for hospitalization in 10-20 percent of the infected population and the need for intensive care for many of those people (including needing intubation and ventilators)

Indeed, dying isn't the only concern.  Things sure went to hell quickly, there.  I don't see how we can expect much better here in the U.S.  It's a frightening thought.

As Bill Gates said, the coronavirus may be the 'once-in-a-century pathogen we've been worried about.'

It's potentially in a care facility which has 108 residents, 27 of whom already have symptoms and all of whom can be expected to be at high risk.  Finding facilities for just the patients from that one facility will be a problem.


https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/485302-officials-announce-possible-coronavirus-outbreak-in-washington-nursing

Glenstache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #312 on: February 29, 2020, 04:29:28 PM »
This thread is beyond parody at this point.

This virus thing is the latest in media bullshit hype to keep you addicted to the news.  SARS, H1N1, Ebola...it's all bullshit fear-mongering, and a complete abuse of statistics.  Others, most notably nereo, have covered why the statistics are almost meaningless at this point, and actually show that the virus isn't that big of a deal.

Our modern healthcare system, and the international coordination of governments, makes it next to impossible for this to become a pandemic akin to the influenza spread of 1918.

I'm going to continue about my daily life, wash my hands after I poop, and sit around and wait for baseball season.

Thank you for washing your hands. The rest of your post is, quite frankly, buying in to a different version of spin. I know people who are world-class epidemiologists and will be working in facilities receiving people with the illness. There are a lot of first order things about how the virus behaves that are not yet understood, but it is pretty clear that the illness has pretty strong adverse effects and is, in fact, a pandemic in the making. Our tools ARE much better than in 1918. However, this is still going to be bad, a lot of people will be affected and a lot of people are going to die. It should be taken seriously. It is not a hoax.

CrustyBadger

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #313 on: February 29, 2020, 04:33:36 PM »
I feel I should clarify my initial sentence there -- of course the fatality rate is incredibly meaningful  in and of itself.  But it's the larger number of severe hospitalizations that will cripple health care, first, before a difference of 1% versus 3% fatality rate will make itself even known.

And people are (here, and elsewhere) arguing about whether 20% of people will be infected or 60%....again, it hardly matters in terms of immediate surge capacity.  Anything over 10% is too much to handle without massive preparation and reorganization.

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #314 on: February 29, 2020, 05:39:39 PM »
These media based figure are heavily biased...it’s just a flu....

I suggest taken the nominal 8 percent suggested rate...subtracting 3 and divide by 2. Sprinkle on some caster sugar, bake for 25 and apply some chill out

LWYRUP

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #315 on: February 29, 2020, 05:41:12 PM »
This thread is beyond parody at this point.

This virus thing is the latest in media bullshit hype to keep you addicted to the news.  SARS, H1N1, Ebola...it's all bullshit fear-mongering, and a complete abuse of statistics.  Others, most notably nereo, have covered why the statistics are almost meaningless at this point, and actually show that the virus isn't that big of a deal.

Our modern healthcare system, and the international coordination of governments, makes it next to impossible for this to become a pandemic akin to the influenza spread of 1918.

I'm going to continue about my daily life, wash my hands after I poop, and sit around and wait for baseball season.

Thank you for washing your hands. The rest of your post is, quite frankly, buying in to a different version of spin. I know people who are world-class epidemiologists and will be working in facilities receiving people with the illness. There are a lot of first order things about how the virus behaves that are not yet understood, but it is pretty clear that the illness has pretty strong adverse effects and is, in fact, a pandemic in the making. Our tools ARE much better than in 1918. However, this is still going to be bad, a lot of people will be affected and a lot of people are going to die. It should be taken seriously. It is not a hoax.

I'm replying to confirm my agreement for posterity.  My dad is an expert in infectious diseases and this thing is no joke.  (You could also ask any of the 2 billion people from the Pacific Rim if you want further verification.). 

There's endless information about this disease and it's potential ramifications on Reddit if you care to learn more, but for starters think about what happens if 10% of your city gets this at once (it's highly contagious) and 10% of those need a ventilator.  Only one percent!  Not too bad.  So like 80k people who need ventilators in NYC, right.  You think NYC has 80k ventilators and accompanying healthcare staff and hospital beds for all those people?  And help will not be coming from elsewhere because they will all be dealing with their own outbreaks. 

If your attitude is "well then just a bunch of old people get culled from the herd, I'm young and I'll be fine..."  Well maybe that will be true or maybe not.  But that's a very callous approach to what's extremely likely to be an impending and global humanitarian crisis.

Sibley

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #316 on: February 29, 2020, 06:55:12 PM »
Reminds me of a historical truth: there are 3 ways for large numbers of people to die: war, disease, and famine. We may end up relearning about the 2nd of those. Let's hope that if that happens, the other two don't occur.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #317 on: February 29, 2020, 07:05:29 PM »
Famine is about to happen in Africa as they are having a terrible outbreak of locusts in parts of Africa

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #318 on: February 29, 2020, 08:50:56 PM »
Three new cases of covid-19 within 100 km of my house today.  People wearing face masks in the grocery store.  Getting public health recommendations to keep at least two weeks of food/medical supplies in your home in case of quarantine.

This is beginning to feel much less like a goofy SARS-style crazy unfounded fear thing and more like something I should pay attention to.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #319 on: February 29, 2020, 11:17:14 PM »
Fatality rate really isn't that meaningful.  The bigger problem is the need for hospitalization in 10-20 percent of the infected population and the need for intensive care for many of those people (including needing intubation and ventilators)

Indeed, dying isn't the only concern.  Things sure went to hell quickly, there.  I don't see how we can expect much better here in the U.S.  It's a frightening thought.

As Bill Gates said, the coronavirus may be the 'once-in-a-century pathogen we've been worried about.'

It's potentially in a care facility which has 108 residents, 27 of whom already have symptoms and all of whom can be expected to be at high risk.  Finding facilities for just the patients from that one facility will be a problem.


https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/485302-officials-announce-possible-coronavirus-outbreak-in-washington-nursing

...approximately 10 miles from my house. Great. I'm not too worried about myself as I'm in the age range where life-threatening symptoms are extremely unlikely, but it just seems like the responsible thing to stay home as much as possible until this blows over. The more people who are out and about, the more quickly this thing will spread to people who really do need to worry about getting it.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #320 on: March 01, 2020, 04:51:24 AM »
Three new cases of covid-19 within 100 km of my house today.  People wearing face masks in the grocery store.  Getting public health recommendations to keep at least two weeks of food/medical supplies in your home in case of quarantine.

This is beginning to feel much less like a goofy SARS-style crazy unfounded fear thing and more like something I should pay attention to.

Horrible situation to be in. Far better to be safe than sorry.
I work in the medical industry. One of our surgeons was working in Hong Kong during the SARs outbreak. Seventy of his colleagues and friends were horribly sick and/or died, apparently. He makes the entire floor wear masks, gloves and eye protection during any outbreak. We did it for H1N1, H5N1, and we're doing it for this. We're in NZ. Taking NO chances around here. We're already getting panic buying runs on supermarkets and things. Sort out your stock before it becomes a last minute thing, if you're going to.

CrustyBadger

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #321 on: March 01, 2020, 06:10:01 AM »
Fatality rate really isn't that meaningful.  The bigger problem is the need for hospitalization in 10-20 percent of the infected population and the need for intensive care for many of those people (including needing intubation and ventilators)

Indeed, dying isn't the only concern.  Things sure went to hell quickly, there.  I don't see how we can expect much better here in the U.S.  It's a frightening thought.

As Bill Gates said, the coronavirus may be the 'once-in-a-century pathogen we've been worried about.'

Interview with a doctor in Italy (chief of infectious diseases at Sacco hospital):

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_01/galli-il-coronavirus-italia-settimane-tsunami-il-sistema-sanitario-a153160c-5b3d-11ea-8b1a-b76251361796.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

ROME - As we speak on the phone to analyze the surge in Covid-19 cases , Professor Massimo Galli - primary infectious disease specialist at the «Sacco» hospital in Milan - is in the ward, forced to interrupt the conversation three times to answer his colleagues at other structures that ask to be able to send serious patients to him: «What you are listening to in real time is worth more than my answers. We are in full emergency . Yes, I am worried ».

How do you explain this surge of contagions?
“What many of us feared and hoped didn't happen happened. We find ourselves dealing with a large number of patients with important clinical pictures. Something serious is happening, not only in Italy but also in Germany and France, which could soon find themselves in our same conditions and I do not wish them. We are dealing with a rising tide of demanding patients. "

What is the cause of this explosion?
«Many serious clinical pictures and all together suggest that the infection has started to spread in the so-called red zone for quite some time. Perhaps it arrived even before the direct flights from Wuhan were suspended. It is likely that the patients in the last few days became infected two to four weeks ago and then progressively developed the respiratory symptoms on the basis of which many needed to resort to intensive procedures ".


There are those who have compared this disease to the flu. Careless approach?
«Those who tried to instill tranquility, and I understand their good intentions, had no clear knowledge of what a disease like this can cause. In forty-two years of profession I have never seen an influence capable of upsetting the activity of the infectious disease wards and of the reanimations of an entire region among the best organized and prepared for the emergencies of Italy. No advanced health system can be set up to hospitalize many critically ill patients all together and, moreover, in isolation. Friday in Lombardy there were 85 reanimation beds occupied by intubated patients diagnosed with Covid-19, a very important slice of those available. It should be remembered that the other reasons why a person may need a resuscitation bed don't just disappear because the coronavirus has arrived.

Did the measures prepared by the Italian government work?
«Everything that was possible from the point of view of the implemented restrictions was done, without reaching drastic Wuhan-like measures. In Lombardy, I believe that we can only continue with the restrictions adopted. Unfortunately, the virus has probably circulated enough to ensure that the cases in the red zone have not yet all emerged. We must go to the bottom ».

Does this mean that this disease develops slowly starting from the infection?
«The more I read the anamnesis of hospitalized cases, the more it seems to me that it resembles SARS, even in the course of the course, with the most demanding manifestations that in many cases appear 7-10 or more days from the first symptoms. It should be remembered that for each patient involved there are probably three others in which the disease runs much milder but which contribute to spreading the infection ».

Italy seems divided into two for now. In the North the emergency, in the Center-South an apparent calm. Why?
“It could have happened anywhere and there would have been no difference. Someone, perhaps one person, arrived in the area we now call red and spread the infection without our realizing it. A random phenomenon. But now throughout Italy the health system is alerted to the possibility that a patient who presents himself in hospital with an important respiratory picture may have the disease. It is therefore unlikely that a case with these characteristics will not be handled with due caution and the test will not be performed. Unfortunately, an infected patient came to the emergency room in Codogno last week and was not recognized as infected because it did not meet the criteria for classifying suspects dictated by the World Health Organization then in force. A school case that has overturned those criteria.

What do you expect?
«Most of the patients recover without permanent damage even among those with the worst cadres. But in Lombardy there are many and it is absolutely necessary to avoid that they become too many. The red zone did not extend to metropolitan areas and I hope that the restrictions imposed and maintained will help keep things that way. "

TomTX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #322 on: March 01, 2020, 07:26:12 AM »
Apparently the reason the WHO has not declared a pandemic yet has to do with certain bonds that will be triggered once certain criteria have been met. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/covid-19-outbreak-meets-another-catastrophe-bond-trigger-condition

WHO hasn't decared a pandemic as it's not their protocol to use the word "pandemic".

WHO has declared the risk "very high" - which is as high as their current terminology goes.

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #323 on: March 01, 2020, 09:00:32 AM »
I never said it is spreading in the US at this point. I am saying it most likely WILL be soon.  And that official statement pointedly says nothing about the future.

And for the umpteenth time - I'm not concerned about the virus - even though it may be bad-ish - but about the consequences of quarantine and other ill-advised containment issues.
That’s the whole problem. If doesn’t particularly matter whether you care or not. The problem is your sensationalizing if it - that others might.
I don't understand why people are saying that frugaldrummer is sensationalising.  All I'm seeing, after their first post, is a large number of replies to others putting forward a range of potential figures which appear to be within the realms of possibility.  Is there any evidence that anyone reading this thread has been panicking as a result?

I'm just catching up with this thread - but I agree. I don't understand the panic-inducing, fear-mongering accusations at all. All I've seen is dispassionate citing of stats and one person's extrapolation of those.

Hopefully - as I read further there will be some recommendations on preparedness? lol!

No one is forcing anyone to prepare! But I think some of us would like to....extra food and TP, medications, etc. I'd like to see a comprehensive list. I am neither afraid nor panicked. I'd just like to do my due diligence for the family situation and then move on with my day.

As others' mentioned - it's not stuff you wouldn't buy in the next couple of months anyway. I have seen building a bunker, hiding out in dessert, or hermetically sealing your home discussed.

Looking forward to the rest of the thread though! No very informative list-wise/preparedness yet - but entertaining nonetheless!

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #324 on: March 01, 2020, 09:18:30 AM »
@mistymoney , I don't know that a comprehensive list is really possible. We all have different needs. I don't use prescription meds so I don't need to worry about that, but we have three pets and want to make sure we  have enough food and litter for them. People with infants/toddlers will want to have diapers and other things. Those with special diets (including me, with celiac disease) would be wise to stock up on safe frozen/fridge-stable/shelf-stable foods to last a few weeks (my current grocery list includes beans, quinoa, rice, peanut butter, canned tomatoes, eggs, coffee beans, hard squash, root veggies, and meat that can be frozen). Toiletries/household supplies you might need for a few weeks are another consideration.

DragonSlayer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #325 on: March 01, 2020, 09:28:49 AM »

 I have seen building a bunker, hiding out in dessert, or hermetically sealing your home discussed.

Looking forward to the rest of the thread though! No very informative list-wise/preparedness yet - but entertaining nonetheless!

If we're hiding out in desserts, I call the cherry pie! (Sorry if I offend anyone. I'm really not the grammar police, I just saw a chance to inject a little levity.) :)

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #326 on: March 01, 2020, 11:01:19 AM »
This thread is beyond parody at this point.

This virus thing is the latest in media bullshit hype to keep you addicted to the news.  SARS, H1N1, Ebola...it's all bullshit fear-mongering, and a complete abuse of statistics.  Others, most notably nereo, have covered why the statistics are almost meaningless at this point, and actually show that the virus isn't that big of a deal.

Our modern healthcare system, and the international coordination of governments, makes it next to impossible for this to become a pandemic akin to the influenza spread of 1918.

I'm going to continue about my daily life, wash my hands after I poop, and sit around and wait for baseball season.

people everywhere respectfully request your wash your hands after peeing too.

and picking your nose.

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #327 on: March 01, 2020, 11:10:54 AM »

 I have seen building a bunker, hiding out in dessert, or hermetically sealing your home discussed.

Looking forward to the rest of the thread though! No very informative list-wise/preparedness yet - but entertaining nonetheless!

If we're hiding out in desserts, I call the cherry pie! (Sorry if I offend anyone. I'm really not the grammar police, I just saw a chance to inject a little levity.) :)

LOL! I meant to say I haven't seen anyone saying that!!

;)

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #328 on: March 01, 2020, 11:12:17 AM »
This thread is beyond parody at this point.

This virus thing is the latest in media bullshit hype to keep you addicted to the news.  SARS, H1N1, Ebola...it's all bullshit fear-mongering, and a complete abuse of statistics.  Others, most notably nereo, have covered why the statistics are almost meaningless at this point, and actually show that the virus isn't that big of a deal.

Our modern healthcare system, and the international coordination of governments, makes it next to impossible for this to become a pandemic akin to the influenza spread of 1918.

I'm going to continue about my daily life, wash my hands after I poop, and sit around and wait for baseball season.

people everywhere respectfully request your wash your hands after peeing too.

and picking your nose.

Soap ruins the flavour.

itchyfeet

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #329 on: March 01, 2020, 11:13:50 AM »
PTF

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #330 on: March 01, 2020, 11:15:18 AM »
@mistymoney , I don't know that a comprehensive list is really possible. We all have different needs. I don't use prescription meds so I don't need to worry about that, but we have three pets and want to make sure we  have enough food and litter for them. People with infants/toddlers will want to have diapers and other things. Those with special diets (including me, with celiac disease) would be wise to stock up on safe frozen/fridge-stable/shelf-stable foods to last a few weeks (my current grocery list includes beans, quinoa, rice, peanut butter, canned tomatoes, eggs, coffee beans, hard squash, root veggies, and meat that can be frozen). Toiletries/household supplies you might need for a few weeks are another consideration.

Well - my thought is there is a comprehensive list - but then everyone reads through and only selects what applies to them.

I did make myself a list while reading the thread. Although a lot of posts weren't list-centered, comments here and there made me think- maybe I'd need .....

For context - I never have any stores on hand for anything. I shop on lunch time and bring home small quantities - just buying enough for 1-2 meals at a time. Rarely ever do a big stock up, always running out of paper products, etc. So - a very different situation from people who are well stocked at all times.

Big thing for me is to stock up on cat litter :O

Always running out - hard to carry in purse from work....
« Last Edit: March 01, 2020, 11:16:59 AM by mistymoney »

Kris

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #331 on: March 01, 2020, 01:27:23 PM »
I never said it is spreading in the US at this point. I am saying it most likely WILL be soon.  And that official statement pointedly says nothing about the future.

And for the umpteenth time - I'm not concerned about the virus - even though it may be bad-ish - but about the consequences of quarantine and other ill-advised containment issues.
That’s the whole problem. If doesn’t particularly matter whether you care or not. The problem is your sensationalizing if it - that others might.
I don't understand why people are saying that frugaldrummer is sensationalising.  All I'm seeing, after their first post, is a large number of replies to others putting forward a range of potential figures which appear to be within the realms of possibility.  Is there any evidence that anyone reading this thread has been panicking as a result?

I'm just catching up with this thread - but I agree. I don't understand the panic-inducing, fear-mongering accusations at all. All I've seen is dispassionate citing of stats and one person's extrapolation of those.

Hopefully - as I read further there will be some recommendations on preparedness? lol!

No one is forcing anyone to prepare! But I think some of us would like to....extra food and TP, medications, etc. I'd like to see a comprehensive list. I am neither afraid nor panicked. I'd just like to do my due diligence for the family situation and then move on with my day.

As others' mentioned - it's not stuff you wouldn't buy in the next couple of months anyway. I have seen building a bunker, hiding out in dessert, or hermetically sealing your home discussed.

Looking forward to the rest of the thread though! No very informative list-wise/preparedness yet - but entertaining nonetheless!

I came across this article from NPR today that looks like a good list to me.

https://trib.al/8UHmKPE

RetiredAt63

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #332 on: March 01, 2020, 01:28:53 PM »
Three new cases of covid-19 within 100 km of my house today.  People wearing face masks in the grocery store.  Getting public health recommendations to keep at least two weeks of food/medical supplies in your home in case of quarantine.

This is beginning to feel much less like a goofy SARS-style crazy unfounded fear thing and more like something I should pay attention to.

Horrible situation to be in. Far better to be safe than sorry.
I work in the medical industry. One of our surgeons was working in Hong Kong during the SARs outbreak. Seventy of his colleagues and friends were horribly sick and/or died, apparently. He makes the entire floor wear masks, gloves and eye protection during any outbreak. We did it for H1N1, H5N1, and we're doing it for this. We're in NZ. Taking NO chances around here. We're already getting panic buying runs on supermarkets and things. Sort out your stock before it becomes a last minute thing, if you're going to.

I'm in NZ for 16 more days - if I get really sick, can I come to your hospital?  I really like your surgeon's attitude.

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #333 on: March 01, 2020, 02:36:29 PM »
I never said it is spreading in the US at this point. I am saying it most likely WILL be soon.  And that official statement pointedly says nothing about the future.

And for the umpteenth time - I'm not concerned about the virus - even though it may be bad-ish - but about the consequences of quarantine and other ill-advised containment issues.
That’s the whole problem. If doesn’t particularly matter whether you care or not. The problem is your sensationalizing if it - that others might.
I don't understand why people are saying that frugaldrummer is sensationalising.  All I'm seeing, after their first post, is a large number of replies to others putting forward a range of potential figures which appear to be within the realms of possibility.  Is there any evidence that anyone reading this thread has been panicking as a result?

I'm just catching up with this thread - but I agree. I don't understand the panic-inducing, fear-mongering accusations at all. All I've seen is dispassionate citing of stats and one person's extrapolation of those.

Hopefully - as I read further there will be some recommendations on preparedness? lol!

No one is forcing anyone to prepare! But I think some of us would like to....extra food and TP, medications, etc. I'd like to see a comprehensive list. I am neither afraid nor panicked. I'd just like to do my due diligence for the family situation and then move on with my day.

As others' mentioned - it's not stuff you wouldn't buy in the next couple of months anyway. I have seen building a bunker, hiding out in dessert, or hermetically sealing your home discussed.

Looking forward to the rest of the thread though! No very informative list-wise/preparedness yet - but entertaining nonetheless!

I came across this article from NPR today that looks like a good list to me.

https://trib.al/8UHmKPE

Thanks - I was just going to post about their first point. Just got back from the store and trying to think about avoiding infection  there is mind boggling.

There's the wipes for the cart - but all the food packaging - have things stocked from dairy - meat - egg - dry goods - produce - all those people!

Then - did other customers touch and reject any of my purchases?

Then ringer, bagger, etc.

wow - just carried in 'germs' from at least a dozen people.....

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #334 on: March 01, 2020, 02:39:51 PM »
oh - and unsure if this is related - but I've never seen such a low stock of rice and beans at this store before!

Didn't notice any other shelves looking light. No limes however. Not for ready money.

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #335 on: March 01, 2020, 03:14:40 PM »
I recently came home from a trip to an affected area and then came down with symptoms (cough/head-aches). It is really something to find yourself in the position where YOU are the potential spreader that can make this feel real.
I immediately self-quarantined as I most certainly did not want to pose any risk to anyone else and then contacted a nurse call-line to assess my risk.

Testing showed it was Influenza-A and this is after an inordinate amount of hand-washing (but also flying/travelling/jetlag..it's hard to limit exposure and keep immunity high).

I have ordered a few extra groceries to be delivered (because it's influenza, I am still self-quarantining)..but nothing extreme. I saw that the Canadian gov't has recommended around two weeks of supplies. We have reasonable amounts of pantry items and dried goods already so adding some canned tomatoes and more rice seemed prudent.

I'm also ordering seeds for the garden because that is an uplifting task :)

Queen Frugal

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #336 on: March 01, 2020, 03:37:10 PM »
Today I started stocking up. Honestly I felt a little ridiculous walking around the grocery store with my cart. I only stocked up on things I normally eat and I added an extra of a lot of things I normally keep on hand. For example, I needed to buy toilet paper as I am almost out. So I bought 2 big packages of TP instead of my normal 1 big package. I bought an extra thing of laundry soap. I eat a lot of rice so I have been buying rice by the 20# bag. My bag is half empty, so I picked up one of the last 20# bags of rice.

I may have just been self conscious, but people were staring! No shortages of TP here, the shelves were as full as usual, but I felt like there were several people who looked at me, with my 2 big packages of TP and great big 20# bag of rice piled in my cart, thinking - "she's proof! It's coming! Let's get TP too! Where do I get that big bag of rice?", or "that girl is nuts!"... or both.

I will eventually eat it all regardless.


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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #337 on: March 01, 2020, 04:06:44 PM »
The crowd at the local Aldi seemed pretty normal today, and the shelves seemed better stocked than they did before the last snowstorm. I hope the same is true at Costco on Tuesday.

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #338 on: March 01, 2020, 04:18:37 PM »
Three new cases of covid-19 within 100 km of my house today.  People wearing face masks in the grocery store.  Getting public health recommendations to keep at least two weeks of food/medical supplies in your home in case of quarantine.

This is beginning to feel much less like a goofy SARS-style crazy unfounded fear thing and more like something I should pay attention to.

Horrible situation to be in. Far better to be safe than sorry.
I work in the medical industry. One of our surgeons was working in Hong Kong during the SARs outbreak. Seventy of his colleagues and friends were horribly sick and/or died, apparently. He makes the entire floor wear masks, gloves and eye protection during any outbreak. We did it for H1N1, H5N1, and we're doing it for this. We're in NZ. Taking NO chances around here. We're already getting panic buying runs on supermarkets and things. Sort out your stock before it becomes a last minute thing, if you're going to.

I'm in NZ for 16 more days - if I get really sick, can I come to your hospital?  I really like your surgeon's attitude.

I think you'll find that all front line staff in every clinic and hospital in the country are doing hand sanitiser and masks at least!
Whereabouts in the country are you?

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #339 on: March 01, 2020, 04:33:15 PM »
Regarding stocking up, can I strongly suggest that those of you who want to do this do it very soon?

I've lived through a disaster, and I've seen what happens at supermarkets when your town is cut off for even a very short period. After the quakes in Chch, NZ, there was a week or so where it was incredibly difficult to get around the city. The grocery stock was in the warehouses but there were major delays on distribution. There also wasn't good communication in all areas because a lot of Chch had no power. As a result, people were out to take care of their families. There was no violence or anything like that, but there was rationing at supermarkets. You were not allowed in and would have to buy from a table out front. What you could buy and in what quantities was very limited - milk, bread, baby products, toilet paper etc. The supermarkets that didn't have rationing got bare shelves very quickly.

Stock up on canned and dry goods that will make meals and that you will use up anyway. Water, toilet paper, pet food. Also tea/coffee. That can make or break your day. Also keep your car full of gas. You don't want to be queuing for hours for gas.

Cassie

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #340 on: March 01, 2020, 04:38:30 PM »
We always grocery shop for a months worth of food because it’s easiest and I just ordered 3 months of dog food and medications.  This is my normal routine. 

RetiredAt63

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #341 on: March 01, 2020, 04:40:19 PM »
Three new cases of covid-19 within 100 km of my house today.  People wearing face masks in the grocery store.  Getting public health recommendations to keep at least two weeks of food/medical supplies in your home in case of quarantine.

This is beginning to feel much less like a goofy SARS-style crazy unfounded fear thing and more like something I should pay attention to.

Horrible situation to be in. Far better to be safe than sorry.
I work in the medical industry. One of our surgeons was working in Hong Kong during the SARs outbreak. Seventy of his colleagues and friends were horribly sick and/or died, apparently. He makes the entire floor wear masks, gloves and eye protection during any outbreak. We did it for H1N1, H5N1, and we're doing it for this. We're in NZ. Taking NO chances around here. We're already getting panic buying runs on supermarkets and things. Sort out your stock before it becomes a last minute thing, if you're going to.

I'm in NZ for 16 more days - if I get really sick, can I come to your hospital?  I really like your surgeon's attitude.

I think you'll find that all front line staff in every clinic and hospital in the country are doing hand sanitiser and masks at least!
Whereabouts in the country are you?

I'm in an Auckland suburb.  I grocery shopped yesterday in Green Bay and everything was pretty normal.  Heading to Hobbiton/Rotorura and then Papamoa for the weekend.  My weekend craft camp has already advised us of all the ministry guidelines. 

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #342 on: March 01, 2020, 04:42:56 PM »
I never said it is spreading in the US at this point. I am saying it most likely WILL be soon.  And that official statement pointedly says nothing about the future.

And for the umpteenth time - I'm not concerned about the virus - even though it may be bad-ish - but about the consequences of quarantine and other ill-advised containment issues.
That’s the whole problem. If doesn’t particularly matter whether you care or not. The problem is your sensationalizing if it - that others might.
I don't understand why people are saying that frugaldrummer is sensationalising.  All I'm seeing, after their first post, is a large number of replies to others putting forward a range of potential figures which appear to be within the realms of possibility.  Is there any evidence that anyone reading this thread has been panicking as a result?

I'm just catching up with this thread - but I agree. I don't understand the panic-inducing, fear-mongering accusations at all. All I've seen is dispassionate citing of stats and one person's extrapolation of those.

Hopefully - as I read further there will be some recommendations on preparedness? lol!

No one is forcing anyone to prepare! But I think some of us would like to....extra food and TP, medications, etc. I'd like to see a comprehensive list. I am neither afraid nor panicked. I'd just like to do my due diligence for the family situation and then move on with my day.

As others' mentioned - it's not stuff you wouldn't buy in the next couple of months anyway. I have seen building a bunker, hiding out in dessert, or hermetically sealing your home discussed.

Looking forward to the rest of the thread though! No very informative list-wise/preparedness yet - but entertaining nonetheless!

I came across this article from NPR today that looks like a good list to me.

https://trib.al/8UHmKPE

Thanks - I was just going to post about their first point. Just got back from the store and trying to think about avoiding infection  there is mind boggling.

There's the wipes for the cart - but all the food packaging - have things stocked from dairy - meat - egg - dry goods - produce - all those people!

Then - did other customers touch and reject any of my purchases?

Then ringer, bagger, etc.

wow - just carried in 'germs' from at least a dozen people.....

Food for thought, no? And most of us (me included) don’t think about it when it’s cold/flu/norovirus season.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #343 on: March 01, 2020, 06:05:30 PM »
Stock up on canned and dry goods that will make meals and that you will use up anyway.

That's pretty much what we did this weekend.  Regular groceries plus some extra pasta, rice, beans, canned soup . . . all stuff that we'll use anyway, but enough to tide us over comfortably for a couple weeks.

Jacinle

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #344 on: March 01, 2020, 06:27:16 PM »

Thanks - I was just going to post about their first point. Just got back from the store and trying to think about avoiding infection  there is mind boggling.

There's the wipes for the cart - but all the food packaging - have things stocked from dairy - meat - egg - dry goods - produce - all those people!

Then - did other customers touch and reject any of my purchases?

Then ringer, bagger, etc.

wow - just carried in 'germs' from at least a dozen people.....

Food for thought, no? And most of us (me included) don’t think about it when it’s cold/flu/norovirus season.
[/quote]

From the NPR post, -->Washing your hands frequently, as well as avoiding touching your face, eyes and nose

will help from getting germs from indirect contact

Jacinle

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #345 on: March 01, 2020, 06:30:08 PM »
Stock up on canned and dry goods that will make meals and that you will use up anyway.

That's pretty much what we did this weekend.  Regular groceries plus some extra pasta, rice, beans, canned soup . . . all stuff that we'll use anyway, but enough to tide us over comfortably for a couple weeks.

Yes, and try to buy a little extra to avoid a run !

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #346 on: March 01, 2020, 07:07:54 PM »
I got the flu shot I never managed in the fall.  (I called around and it was out of stock, and eventually I just forgot about it.) 

Won't help with Covid, but I'm one fewer potential flu-spreader, and one fewer person who might need medical care when the system is already taxed. 

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #347 on: March 01, 2020, 07:40:46 PM »
Don’t forget to stock up on fever/flu medication just in case you do get sick!

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #348 on: March 01, 2020, 08:07:37 PM »
Thanks - I was just going to post about their first point. Just got back from the store and trying to think about avoiding infection  there is mind boggling.

There's the wipes for the cart - but all the food packaging - have things stocked from dairy - meat - egg - dry goods - produce - all those people!

Then - did other customers touch and reject any of my purchases?

Then ringer, bagger, etc.

wow - just carried in 'germs' from at least a dozen people.....

Ha, I was thinking the exact same thing.  I'm bringing in a bunch of food/containers that's been touched, coughed on, sneezed on, etc. before I ever got it home, and I'm bringing all those germs into my house.  I've read that these viruses can live on some surfaces for days at room temperature.  And after I touched these items, I touched my keys, credit card, cell phone, car door, steering wheel, gear shift, door knob, refrigerator handle, etc., spreading those germs everywhere.  I'm hoping it's earlier enough that it's not out in my local community, yet.

The good news is that despite reported community spread in my state, nothing seemed unusual at the grocery store or Super Walmart.  They had plenty of hand sanitizer, meds, soup, TP, etc.  They were down to 1 bottle of the 70% alcohol, although they had many 91% bottles left.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2020, 08:09:59 PM by American GenX »

SunnyDays

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #349 on: March 01, 2020, 10:14:14 PM »
On the news tonight, there were pictures of line ups out the door at a Vancouver Canada Costco because the virus was in a nursing home in a Seattle suburb 3 hours away.  Toilet paper was a popular item.  I plan to do my own run this week.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!