Author Topic: Coronavirus preparedness  (Read 120985 times)

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #250 on: February 27, 2020, 08:14:14 AM »
I feel so secure with Mike Pence in charge of the national coronavirus response: Mike Pence's 'Pray on It' Plan to Combat Indiana HIV Outbreak Resurfaces after Trump Taps VP to Lead Coronavirus Response

Thoughts and prayers, folks. 'Cause it worked so well in Indiana, and continues to work so well in preventing mass shootings.

Hirondelle

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #251 on: February 27, 2020, 08:24:26 AM »
the cloth roll towel dispensers in the most busy train station in the country that you need to touch after washing your hands.

I have seen these once or twice in my travels but never ever touched them, because that is just the grossest thing (not just with coronavirus but always, ick!). If I were you, I would carry my own small cloth in my purse or backpack for drying my hands.

They used to be a lot more common here when I was a kid (1980s). I haven’t seen one in years. I agree that a personal cloth seems like a much more sanitary option.

I usually hate those too (same country as Imma).

If I'm in Asia I always carry toilet paper (because some places don't even have the bum gun) so that'd also be an alternative here. Cloth would be even better I guess.

fuzzy math

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #252 on: February 27, 2020, 09:52:02 AM »

*snip*


Great points.

Medicine supplies are a huge concern of mine. Unfortunately many medicines are only approved by insurance every X days and it can be difficult to get ahead.

Toilet paper is great to stock up on, but so is bleach, Lysol, wipes, paper towels, disposable gloves etc. Assume these items will go because people will be panicked about their family members getting sick while in quarantine.

Really re-think any travel or large gathering for the foreseeable (and beyond) future. Some business conference in Atlanta was cancelled and went remote the other day. I do not want to get on a plane at all. The only plans I have for it are in June - July. I will have to decide what to do if the outbreak is still prevalent then. Its going to take a number of months after things to calm down for me to initiate any other flight based travel, and even then there's the possibility that this becomes a seasonal thing and alters next winter.

SunnyDays

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #253 on: February 27, 2020, 10:54:21 AM »
the cloth roll towel dispensers in the most busy train station in the country that you need to touch after washing your hands.

I have seen these once or twice in my travels but never ever touched them, because that is just the grossest thing (not just with coronavirus but always, ick!). If I were you, I would carry my own small cloth in my purse or backpack for drying my hands.

When these are the only option, I just get toilet paper from a stall (without touching anything but the toilet paper).  Of the two, I figure it's the better option.

Cranky

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #254 on: February 27, 2020, 11:17:59 AM »
So, statistically, even for children the mortality rate is higher than for influenza?

Dee18

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #255 on: February 27, 2020, 11:57:56 AM »
I teach at a private university.  We are being required to take the first steps in preparation for online teaching in case classes are suspended.  This seems like a reasonable precaution. I am retiring at the end of the semester and I have to say that finishing with online teaching would be an odd way to go out after so many years in the classroom.

Hirondelle

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #256 on: February 27, 2020, 12:05:21 PM »
So, statistically, even for children the mortality rate is higher than for influenza?

Not sure what your age cut off for kids would be, but there have been no fatalities so far for kids <10yo. So if there's ever been a young child that died of influenza, the mortality rate for influenza is higher so far.

For the age bracket 10-19 it's 0.2%, not sure how that compared to influenza

Also, for influenza we should take into account the effects of flu shots (it's not the 'natural mortality rate' if vulnerable people get shots) and the differences between strains (some are more or less severe).

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #257 on: February 27, 2020, 12:15:35 PM »
For the age bracket 10-19 it's 0.2%, not sure how that compared to influenza

Its about 0.1% for the regular in total (varies a bit from year to year), also heavily skewed toawrds the older age brackets. So prob quite a bit higher for the coronavirus for the lower brackets.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #258 on: February 27, 2020, 12:26:07 PM »
So, statistically, even for children the mortality rate is higher than for influenza?

I would caution against drawing firm conclusions from preliminary data - and that's exactly what we have here.

In a *typical* year the mortality of influenza is ~0.1%.  However there are years when the strain is much more virulent, e.g. 2009's H1N1

Early indications are that COVID-19 has greater virulence than our typical flu, though at an individual level a greater percentage of people who will be mild or asymptomatic.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #259 on: February 27, 2020, 12:28:56 PM »
Yes, the data is sketchy at best. It's early and mostly from China. Our health folks say the mortality rate is likely to be overstated as many with only mild symptoms are never tested and never see a medical professional.

Imma

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #260 on: February 27, 2020, 12:35:00 PM »
the cloth roll towel dispensers in the most busy train station in the country that you need to touch after washing your hands.

I have seen these once or twice in my travels but never ever touched them, because that is just the grossest thing (not just with coronavirus but always, ick!). If I were you, I would carry my own small cloth in my purse or backpack for drying my hands.

They used to be a lot more common here when I was a kid (1980s). I haven’t seen one in years. I agree that a personal cloth seems like a much more sanitary option.

I usually hate those too (same country as Imma).

If I'm in Asia I always carry toilet paper (because some places don't even have the bum gun) so that'd also be an alternative here. Cloth would be even better I guess.

My impression is that they are actually making a comeback in recent years due to people moving away from single use stuff. Which I'm all for - when possible. I have to say this restroom (on Utrecht C - so it's a brand new) did have a hand dryer too but it was out of order which they often seem to be. We only have a cloth roll at work too but as there are only a few women on our floor you can pull on it and get a fresh part of the towel. But great idea to bring my own cloth towel - I have a few small ones that are meant to be used for the face - I'll throw one in my workbag. Always useful, not just for this situation. Don't know why I never thought about that before.

It seems the known statistics are all for the whole population, I assume it's a bit early for any data about vulnerable people? Especially as the data we have aren't from the most reliable sources. I am glad fatality rates are low for healthy young people but I think some people have a cavalier attitude about the vulnerable groups of people, like 'well, those are going to die anyway, with or without corona'.
That's not quite how it works for a lot of people with immune disorders, asthma or heart disease, or people who are undergoing treatment for cancer. Many of us can expect to live as long as anyone else, as long as we avoid freak illnesses like this or accidents.

As I said, I'm not in a big panic, but it's something that's on my radar and one big difference with the flu is that I get my shots for flu which means I'm at least partially protected.  I'm sure the chances of me dying are still extremely low but if I did get infected, hospitalisation is likely.

Luz

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #261 on: February 27, 2020, 12:51:04 PM »
I'm not doing anything out of the ordinary at this point... except for air travel from the Southwest USA to Pacific Northwest (layover in Seattle) in 2 days. I'm pregnant and will have a toddler in tow.

All the recommendations seem to include: "wash your hands and avoid those who are sick" I'm guessing that sitting in an enclosed space with a couple hundred other people (travelling from various parts of the world) is not the best method of avoidance. Also, toddlers are notorious for touching all.the.surfaces and then promptly picking their noses.

Plus, does anyone else feel like the recommendation of avoiding those who are sick provides people with a false sense of security when it comes to illnesses that have long incubation periods? I'm not sure at which point in the incubation period the coronavirus becomes contagious, but it's likely before symptoms appear. People are contagious after symptoms develop, for sure, and maybe that's the reasoning for the recommendation- it's better than nothing. But still.

So anyway, I'm not exactly immunocompromised, but pregnancy does involve heightened risk for complications related to viral respiratory infections. How would you proceed if you were in my shoes, and why?

honeybbq

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #262 on: February 27, 2020, 01:08:33 PM »
And yes of course I would be washing the masks in hot water, with detergent, in a washing machine and a hot dryer. Not some idiot who's going to rinse them and hang dry them.

I am a health care professional and our hospital just issued the following discard instructions for N95 masks:
Discard:                                                             
1. After aerosol generating procedures.
2. Contaminated with blood, respiratory or nasal secretions, or other bodily fluids from patients.
3. Following close contact with, or exit from, the care area of any patient co-infected with an infectious disease requiring contactor entericprecautions.
4. Any visibledamage/holes/crush.
5. Do not wash/altermasks.
6. Failed sealed check.

Please stop spreading false information.

wellactually

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #263 on: February 27, 2020, 01:26:15 PM »
I so don't want to be in this thread, but I can't help myself when people are talking past each other...

OP (Frugaldrummer) was talking about making fabric masks and believed that they could still be beneficial for personal use since OP believes the professional masks should be saved for healthcare workers.

Several people have mistakenly taken the OP's comments about washing those DIY masks in hot water the wrong way and thought OP meant they would be washing N95 masks.

No one is advocating washing professional or purchased masks.

I am doing nothing to prepare for the coronavirus. But I am due with a baby in just over 6 weeks, so I'll be stocking my freezer and pantry and home supplies over the next month to prepare for that.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #264 on: February 27, 2020, 01:34:54 PM »
I so don't want to be in this thread, but I can't help myself when people are talking past each other...

OP (Frugaldrummer) was talking about making fabric masks and believed that they could still be beneficial for personal use since OP believes the professional masks should be saved for healthcare workers.

Several people have mistakenly taken the OP's comments about washing those DIY masks in hot water the wrong way and thought OP meant they would be washing N95 masks.

No one is advocating washing professional or purchased masks.

I am doing nothing to prepare for the coronavirus. But I am due with a baby in just over 6 weeks, so I'll be stocking my freezer and pantry and home supplies over the next month to prepare for that.

We've discussed at length why one should not wear home-made fabric masks, and taken a dive into the scientific literature on the efficacy.
Homemade fabric masks cannot filter out virus particles, they create a warm, wet-enviornment to harbor microbes, and they aren't designed to be taken on/off without transferring anything on the mask to your nose and mouth.

They have limited use if you are already sick as they will limit airborne particles.  But they are worse than useless when worn by healthy individuals.  If you are then taking those homemade masks and wachine washing them you are making them even worse every washing.


wellactually

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #265 on: February 27, 2020, 01:43:50 PM »
@nereo yes, I realize that. OP replied to that at one point. *I'M* not advocating anything. Just pointing out that washing purchased masks was never brought up.


Sibley

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #266 on: February 27, 2020, 01:48:44 PM »
I'm not doing anything out of the ordinary at this point... except for air travel from the Southwest USA to Pacific Northwest (layover in Seattle) in 2 days. I'm pregnant and will have a toddler in tow.

All the recommendations seem to include: "wash your hands and avoid those who are sick" I'm guessing that sitting in an enclosed space with a couple hundred other people (travelling from various parts of the world) is not the best method of avoidance. Also, toddlers are notorious for touching all.the.surfaces and then promptly picking their noses.

Plus, does anyone else feel like the recommendation of avoiding those who are sick provides people with a false sense of security when it comes to illnesses that have long incubation periods? I'm not sure at which point in the incubation period the coronavirus becomes contagious, but it's likely before symptoms appear. People are contagious after symptoms develop, for sure, and maybe that's the reasoning for the recommendation- it's better than nothing. But still.

So anyway, I'm not exactly immunocompromised, but pregnancy does involve heightened risk for complications related to viral respiratory infections. How would you proceed if you were in my shoes, and why?

Luz, assuming you're not going to cancel or postpone the trip AND you're worried about infection, I would get the alcohol disinfectant wipes and go over everything at your seat, plus anywhere else you're hanging out at for a bit. Have hand sanitizer and use it frequently. When you can get to the bathroom, wash hands well. Try to sit away from people in the airport as best you can (I know, not realistic).

However, I don't know how real-world worried you need to be. Just because the US has had 1 or a few or whatever cases doesn't mean it's everywhere. You're more likely to be exposed to the flu or colds. From what I know, wiping down the tray in the plane is a very good idea all the time. Washing your hands or using sanitize is a good idea in general as well. For your peace of mind, take the reasonable precautions and try not to worry. You're going to have enough stress with a toddler and being pregnant, you don't need to panic about a virus you may or may not encounter as well.

hops

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #267 on: February 27, 2020, 02:24:13 PM »
Here's one take on pregnancy and travel. Your doctor might feel differently:

Quote
Although experts are hesitant to be alarmist about domestic and international travel in general, Dr. Michael Mina, M.D., Ph.D., an assistant professor of epidemiology and immunology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, recommended that pregnant women and others with compromised immune systems think twice about nonessential travel, especially if they’re planning a trip through a major airport in the United States or abroad.

"Now is the time where we actually do want to start thinking, 'Well, do I really need to take that trip to go on vacation?'" he said, referring to higher risk populations. "If it were me, I think I would probably try to decrease my risk as much as possible, and one way to do that is reducing travel."

https://parenting.nytimes.com/health/coronavirus-family-travel-advisory

RetiredAt63

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #268 on: February 27, 2020, 02:28:20 PM »
the cloth roll towel dispensers in the most busy train station in the country that you need to touch after washing your hands.

I have seen these once or twice in my travels but never ever touched them, because that is just the grossest thing (not just with coronavirus but always, ick!). If I were you, I would carry my own small cloth in my purse or backpack for drying my hands.

They used to be a lot more common here when I was a kid (1980s). I haven’t seen one in years. I agree that a personal cloth seems like a much more sanitary option.

I'm resurecting the old joke from that era.   

Be modern, drip (air) dry.

One thing I like about airport washrooms is that there are no doors to handle as you are leaving. And most have paper towels or air blowers or both.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #269 on: February 27, 2020, 02:38:29 PM »
the cloth roll towel dispensers in the most busy train station in the country that you need to touch after washing your hands.

I have seen these once or twice in my travels but never ever touched them, because that is just the grossest thing (not just with coronavirus but always, ick!). If I were you, I would carry my own small cloth in my purse or backpack for drying my hands.

They used to be a lot more common here when I was a kid (1980s). I haven’t seen one in years. I agree that a personal cloth seems like a much more sanitary option.

I'm resurecting the old joke from that era.   

Be modern, drip (air) dry.

One thing I like about airport washrooms is that there are no doors to handle as you are leaving. And most have paper towels or air blowers or both.

Then you'd love our bathroom right now - no door either. 

...course, that's because the 112 year old doorknob fell off and we can't find a replacement so we've had to special-order an entire new door... but you don't need to touch any doorknobs to go in or out!


RetiredAt63

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #270 on: February 27, 2020, 06:54:12 PM »
the cloth roll towel dispensers in the most busy train station in the country that you need to touch after washing your hands.

I have seen these once or twice in my travels but never ever touched them, because that is just the grossest thing (not just with coronavirus but always, ick!). If I were you, I would carry my own small cloth in my purse or backpack for drying my hands.

They used to be a lot more common here when I was a kid (1980s). I haven’t seen one in years. I agree that a personal cloth seems like a much more sanitary option.

I'm resurecting the old joke from that era.   

Be modern, drip (air) dry.

One thing I like about airport washrooms is that there are no doors to handle as you are leaving. And most have paper towels or air blowers or both.

Then you'd love our bathroom right now - no door either. 

...course, that's because the 112 year old doorknob fell off and we can't find a replacement so we've had to special-order an entire new door... but you don't need to touch any doorknobs to go in or out!

All your guests must really appreciate this feature.     ;-)

Capsu78

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #271 on: February 28, 2020, 01:22:20 PM »
To counter the political noise in some of the comments here and elsewhere, trying to link Trump/Pence competency to this issue is a bit dishonest. 
In my past life I worked in the business preparedness area, including supply chain risk analysis, workplace violence prevention and yes, pandemic planning.  Most large companies have something written down to help leadership follow a "table top" scenario(s) so that Senior management doesn't have to try to create a plan from scratch during a looming crisis.
Many smaller companies don't, which is an identifiable gap, certainly...
However, our experience was that Federal, State, County and local municipalities typically have researched and developed "City of XYZ Pandemic Mitigation Plan" somewhere in a binder sitting on someone's shelf.  The executive oversight will be in determining that consistent "triggers" are in place, that a clearly defined "someone" has the authority to activate the plan and follow through on the execution of the plan...across every level of government. 
The difference between US and China is that such "bad news" was not authorized to push up the command structures.  It's not like our national efforts which will be scrutinized by a suspect media for any stories of disarray to try an nationalize a screw up that will more than likely be caused by a local decision. IOW, I'm less worried about Pence and much more worried about the decision making skills of the folks in my region who make the calls about what's happening at the international airport 30 miles away, who is feeding in the numbers that determine plan activation and basically the entire public sector who in my book, have not exactly performed above (low) expectations through a number of administrations this millennium.       

Kris

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #272 on: February 28, 2020, 01:39:15 PM »
To counter the political noise in some of the comments here and elsewhere, trying to link Trump/Pence competency to this issue is a bit dishonest. 
In my past life I worked in the business preparedness area, including supply chain risk analysis, workplace violence prevention and yes, pandemic planning.  Most large companies have something written down to help leadership follow a "table top" scenario(s) so that Senior management doesn't have to try to create a plan from scratch during a looming crisis.
Many smaller companies don't, which is an identifiable gap, certainly...
However, our experience was that Federal, State, County and local municipalities typically have researched and developed "City of XYZ Pandemic Mitigation Plan" somewhere in a binder sitting on someone's shelf.  The executive oversight will be in determining that consistent "triggers" are in place, that a clearly defined "someone" has the authority to activate the plan and follow through on the execution of the plan...across every level of government. 
The difference between US and China is that such "bad news" was not authorized to push up the command structures.  It's not like our national efforts which will be scrutinized by a suspect media for any stories of disarray to try an nationalize a screw up that will more than likely be caused by a local decision. IOW, I'm less worried about Pence and much more worried about the decision making skills of the folks in my region who make the calls about what's happening at the international airport 30 miles away, who is feeding in the numbers that determine plan activation and basically the entire public sector who in my book, have not exactly performed above (low) expectations through a number of administrations this millennium.       

The rates of Coronavirus in the US up to now can't really be blamed on the Trump administration.

Going forward, however, there are definitely things that will likely affect (negatively) the response to it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/coronavirus-us-whistleblower.html

"Staff members from the Department of Health and Human Services’ Administration for Children and Families were sent to Travis Air Force Base and March Air Reserve Base in late January and early February and were ordered to enter quarantined areas, including a hangar where coronavirus evacuees were being received, the complaint said. They were not provided safety-protocol training until five days into their assignment, said the whistle-blower, who is described as a senior leader at the health agency.

Without proper training or equipment, some of the exposed staff members moved freely around and off the bases, with at least one person staying in a nearby hotel and leaving California on a commercial flight. Many were unaware of the need to test their temperatures three times a day."


In 2018 the Trump administration fired key officials connected to the U.S. pandemic response, and they were not replaced.


It's also worth noting that in 2018, the Trump administration cut by 80% the CDC’s program that worked in various countries to fight epidemics.

These things will likely have an impact going forward.

I won't comment specifically on the qualifications or track records of the people Trump has appointed to senior positions at agencies related to combating pandemics.


bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #273 on: February 28, 2020, 01:47:05 PM »
Which is exactly why we still have up to 60.000 US deaths a year from influenza.

Why is it you think a prediction of 200k to 400 k deaths is so off the mark when scientists working on the math have said 0.3-0.6% fatality rate and this is a new virus that nobody has immunity to? I think a 20% rate of infection is actually conservative, in line with past pandemics like 1917 influenza, and in line with the 600+ cases out of 3,000 people on the cruise ship (possibly more).   Sure , it could fizzle out, or it could mutate to spread faster or become more lethal. I'm just working with the numbers available now and what scientists in the field are publishing.

In the long run it will likely become endemic, recurring seasonally IF it is seasonal, and causing many deaths just like flu virus does. Unfortunately coronavirus immunity does not appear to last beyond a couple of years (at least to cold-type coronaviruses)


so it will be urgent to develop a vaccine.

surely there is a shed load of Chinese people at the epicenter of this outbreak that now have natural immunity....flu rarely goes beyond 2 weeks duration and you are relatively immune after (ignoring the occasional outlier) ...if fatality rate is even 2%....that means 98% of those that contract it are immune after

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #274 on: February 28, 2020, 02:24:22 PM »

It's also worth noting that in 2018, the Trump administration cut by 80% the CDC’s program that worked in various countries to fight epidemics.

These things will likely have an impact going forward.

Reminds me of Jim Mattis's comment about Trump's desire to cut Foreign Aid - "If we don't fully fund the State Department then I need to buy more ammo."

The whole point of the CDC having a large footprint all over the world is to get epidemics under control before they reach domestic soil.  Since we can't predict where the next contagen will strike, the CDC aims to be wherever there isn't already a robust presence.
George W. Bush learned this the hard way during SARRs, then (to his credit) started building up our epidemic response capabilities.  Obama got a similar scare with Ebola and the CDC was expanded dramatically - particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.

Trump came into office and seems to have operated under the driving principle that whatever Obama did must be undone, regardless of the reason(s) or future consequences.

Cassie

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #275 on: February 28, 2020, 02:46:36 PM »
Bthewalls, people are getting the virus more than once and some aren’t getting sick until 3-4 weeks after exposure. It’s been all over the news.

Reader

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #276 on: February 28, 2020, 03:46:51 PM »
surely there is a shed load of Chinese people at the epicenter of this outbreak that now have natural immunity....flu rarely goes beyond 2 weeks duration and you are relatively immune after (ignoring the occasional outlier) ...if fatality rate is even 2%....that means 98% of those that contract it are immune after

the fatality rate at the epicentre so far ranges from 0 - 14.8% by age group according to the Chinese CDC.


the chinese are also reporting patients testing positive again after release. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer-idUSKCN20M124

outside of china, singapore currently has 8 out of 96 cases in critical care in hospital. https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19
at least one case has been hospitalised since 3 Feb or almost a month to date.

if you extrapolate that, for every 100k infected, 8333 people will be in critical care. even if a small town were to get mass infected, the medical resources will be overwhelmed. hence prevention is key.


American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #277 on: February 28, 2020, 03:49:21 PM »
surely there is a shed load of Chinese people at the epicenter of this outbreak that now have natural immunity....flu rarely goes beyond 2 weeks duration and you are relatively immune after (ignoring the occasional outlier) ...if fatality rate is even 2%....that means 98% of those that contract it are immune after
It looks like there are multiple incidences of people being reinfected, although I'm not jumping to any conclusions at this point:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/coronavirus-what-are-you-doing-with-your-investments-401ks/msg2570750/#msg2570750

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #278 on: February 28, 2020, 03:58:26 PM »
the chinese are also reporting patients testing positive again after release. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer-idUSKCN20M124

outside of china, singapore currently has 8 out of 96 cases in critical care in hospital. https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19
at least one case has been hospitalised since 3 Feb or almost a month to date.

if you extrapolate that, for every 100k infected, 8333 people will be in critical care. even if a small town were to get mass infected, the medical resources will be overwhelmed. hence prevention is key.

This thing is looking even worse than the earlier figures indicated.

Someone posted this link in another thread with overall statistics, including by country:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died"

Reader

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #279 on: February 28, 2020, 04:15:20 PM »
"8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died"
you can't use the stats that way. in the early day of the crisis in china, a lot of people died while others are still in recovery so the death rate was almost 100%.

one thing the stats suggest is that the kids seldom get infected and if they do, recover very fast. it's the middle age and older folks who have to be more active in taking preventive measures.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #280 on: February 28, 2020, 04:20:40 PM »
"8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died"
you can't use the stats that way. in the early day of the crisis in china, a lot of people died while others are still in recovery so the death rate was almost 100%.

Check out the countries list.  It's not just China.  Iran is even worse in the ratio of deaths to recovered cases.

Deaths 34  Recovered 73

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #281 on: February 28, 2020, 04:48:42 PM »
What I understand about the infection and death rates of this virus is this:

About 20% of people will be infected
Of the people infected, about 20% of will get a severe case
For those people, the death rate is quite high, about double that of SARs
Your risk of getting a severe case increases with age
Your risk of getting a severe case is slightly increased if you are male

So if you get a severe case, and you're older, this is not a good situation. For the vast majority, however, you will not be infected or you will get regular cold symptoms.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #282 on: February 28, 2020, 05:02:17 PM »
I was talking with some friends who are emergency room docs last night. Their info was generally the same as the information we’ve been sharing in this post. I noted that one sneezed into his arm during the conversation and immediately left for the restroom to wash his hands.

With regard to the higher rate of males dying in China, one of the doctors noted that males smoke at higher rates than females in China, and that Covid-19 hits smokers and those with lung disease particularly hard. So, if males are more likely to be smokers in China, then they would likely be more impacted by coronavirus.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #283 on: February 28, 2020, 05:09:35 PM »

Yeah, the smoking aspect in China for men vs. women was noted earlier in one or two of these MMM threads.  You would certainly expect that to be a factor.

Also, if you already have an underlying health condition, you're more susceptible to a serious condition or worse.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #284 on: February 28, 2020, 05:46:53 PM »
With all the data I’ve seen, I’m not overly concerned for myself, DW, or our kids.  But we have a nephew with some underlying health issues, older (but healthy) parents except that FIL is a smoker, neighbor with congestive heart failure, elderly grandparent and family friend in their 90’s and 80’s... enough situations that the personal and family impacts could be very trying and sad. I am hopeful, but not optimistic, that our public health apparatus will get this contained or at least slowed down. 

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #285 on: February 28, 2020, 06:18:10 PM »
"8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died"
you can't use the stats that way. in the early day of the crisis in china, a lot of people died while others are still in recovery so the death rate was almost 100%.

Check out the countries list.  It's not just China.  Iran is even worse in the ratio of deaths to recovered cases.

Deaths 34  Recovered 73

If you added 4000 people who got cold symptoms and never knew they had corona virus to those numbers, would that change your outlook?

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #286 on: February 28, 2020, 06:33:03 PM »
"8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died"
you can't use the stats that way. in the early day of the crisis in china, a lot of people died while others are still in recovery so the death rate was almost 100%.

Check out the countries list.  It's not just China.  Iran is even worse in the ratio of deaths to recovered cases.

Deaths 34  Recovered 73

If you added 4000 people who got cold symptoms and never knew they had corona virus to those numbers, would that change your outlook?

^^^This. These are the people sick enough to visit medical facilities. The majority of people probably thought they had a cold or flu and stayed home until they recovered.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #287 on: February 28, 2020, 06:53:11 PM »
"8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died"
you can't use the stats that way. in the early day of the crisis in china, a lot of people died while others are still in recovery so the death rate was almost 100%.

Check out the countries list.  It's not just China.  Iran is even worse in the ratio of deaths to recovered cases.

Deaths 34  Recovered 73

If you added 4000 people who got cold symptoms and never knew they had corona virus to those numbers, would that change your outlook?

I'm going by the actual data in the document rather than adding in a made up number that someone posted on the MMM forum with no reference.

Really, my concern was how many recovered vs. how many died.

Here's another one:

Diamond Princess:  Total deaths 6  Total recovered 10

Many other cases are still active, so we don't know where they will fall yet.
 

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #288 on: February 28, 2020, 08:43:21 PM »
"8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died"
you can't use the stats that way. in the early day of the crisis in china, a lot of people died while others are still in recovery so the death rate was almost 100%.

Check out the countries list.  It's not just China.  Iran is even worse in the ratio of deaths to recovered cases.

Deaths 34  Recovered 73

If you added 4000 people who got cold symptoms and never knew they had corona virus to those numbers, would that change your outlook?

I'm going by the actual data in the document rather than adding in a made up number that someone posted on the MMM forum with no reference.

Really, my concern was how many recovered vs. how many died.

Here's another one:

Diamond Princess:  Total deaths 6  Total recovered 10

Many other cases are still active, so we don't know where they will fall yet.

The point is that you have limited data, and certainly not enough to draw any conclusions. You don't know how many have recovered, because you don't know how many didn't present to the authorities. Which is why most reputable agencies are declining to give more than an indicative best guess about rates of exposure/infection/reinfection and death.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #289 on: February 28, 2020, 08:48:53 PM »
With all the data I’ve seen, I’m not overly concerned for myself, DW, or our kids.  But we have a nephew with some underlying health issues, older (but healthy) parents except that FIL is a smoker, neighbor with congestive heart failure, elderly grandparent and family friend in their 90’s and 80’s... enough situations that the personal and family impacts could be very trying and sad. I am hopeful, but not optimistic, that our public health apparatus will get this contained or at least slowed down.

Pretty sure that nearly everyone agrees that it's too late for that. However, as one scientist in NZ has said "this is not the apocalypse!" but it does depend on how we all behave.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119915190/coronavirus-one-coronavirus-case-does-not-equal-the-apocalypse
« Last Edit: February 28, 2020, 08:53:50 PM by AnnaGrowsAMustache »

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #290 on: February 28, 2020, 09:01:59 PM »
Well, so much for my optimism. New “community-spread” case near us. Here we go...

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #291 on: February 28, 2020, 09:04:50 PM »
Well, so much for my optimism. New “community-spread” case near us. Here we go...

Washington County, OR?

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #292 on: February 28, 2020, 09:35:54 PM »
Well, so much for my optimism. New “community-spread” case near us. Here we go...

Also here, in Santa Clara County. I think we're up to three community spread cases so far in the US (2 California, 1 in Oregon)

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #293 on: February 28, 2020, 09:41:31 PM »
"8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died"
you can't use the stats that way. in the early day of the crisis in china, a lot of people died while others are still in recovery so the death rate was almost 100%.

Check out the countries list.  It's not just China.  Iran is even worse in the ratio of deaths to recovered cases.

Deaths 34  Recovered 73

If you added 4000 people who got cold symptoms and never knew they had corona virus to those numbers, would that change your outlook?

I'm going by the actual data in the document rather than adding in a made up number that someone posted on the MMM forum with no reference.

Really, my concern was how many recovered vs. how many died.

Here's another one:

Diamond Princess:  Total deaths 6  Total recovered 10

Many other cases are still active, so we don't know where they will fall yet.

The point is that you have limited data, and certainly not enough to draw any conclusions. You don't know how many have recovered, because you don't know how many didn't present to the authorities. Which is why most reputable agencies are declining to give more than an indicative best guess about rates of exposure/infection/reinfection and death.

I said "things are looking" in my earlier post, not that I have come to any final "conclusion".

Yes, limited data, which is why I didn't "conclude" anything, and that's why I also specifically stated, "Many other cases are still active, so we don't know where they will fall yet."

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #294 on: February 29, 2020, 03:06:36 AM »
"8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died"
you can't use the stats that way. in the early day of the crisis in china, a lot of people died while others are still in recovery so the death rate was almost 100%.

Check out the countries list.  It's not just China.  Iran is even worse in the ratio of deaths to recovered cases.

Deaths 34  Recovered 73

If you added 4000 people who got cold symptoms and never knew they had corona virus to those numbers, would that change your outlook?

I'm going by the actual data in the document rather than adding in a made up number that someone posted on the MMM forum with no reference.

Really, my concern was how many recovered vs. how many died.

Here's another one:

Diamond Princess:  Total deaths 6  Total recovered 10

Many other cases are still active, so we don't know where they will fall yet.

The point is that you have limited data, and certainly not enough to draw any conclusions. You don't know how many have recovered, because you don't know how many didn't present to the authorities. Which is why most reputable agencies are declining to give more than an indicative best guess about rates of exposure/infection/reinfection and death.

I said "things are looking" in my earlier post, not that I have come to any final "conclusion".

Yes, limited data, which is why I didn't "conclude" anything, and that's why I also specifically stated, "Many other cases are still active, so we don't know where they will fall yet."

But the way you're stating things is very misleading.

For example, Diamond Princess.

Diamond Princess:  Total deaths 6  Total recovered 10.

That sounds serious. But..... let's add in the fact (as reported by MULTIPLE agencies) that 705 were infected. Now it sounds not very serious. See how that works?

The information you supplied is actually completely irrelevant and pointless to mention without the information you haven't supplied.

neophyte

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #295 on: February 29, 2020, 08:07:55 AM »
With regard to the higher rate of males dying in China, one of the doctors noted that males smoke at higher rates than females in China, and that Covid-19 hits smokers and those with lung disease particularly hard. So, if males are more likely to be smokers in China, then they would likely be more impacted by coronavirus.

I think this is going to wind up being pretty important. I suspect we're going to see a lower fatality rate in the US compared to China partly because we have fewer smokers. Not to mention the air pollution in China; sometimes the smog is so thick you can barely see across the road. My roommate actually bought some respirators before the outbreak because he was thinking of taking a trip back to China and he was concerned about the pollution. 

Maybe if you are a smoker and you're concerned about Coronavirus you should use this as additional motivation to quit.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #296 on: February 29, 2020, 08:13:38 AM »
This thread is beyond parody at this point.

This virus thing is the latest in media bullshit hype to keep you addicted to the news.  SARS, H1N1, Ebola...it's all bullshit fear-mongering, and a complete abuse of statistics.  Others, most notably nereo, have covered why the statistics are almost meaningless at this point, and actually show that the virus isn't that big of a deal.

Our modern healthcare system, and the international coordination of governments, makes it next to impossible for this to become a pandemic akin to the influenza spread of 1918.

I'm going to continue about my daily life, wash my hands after I poop, and sit around and wait for baseball season.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #297 on: February 29, 2020, 09:32:51 AM »
"8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died"
you can't use the stats that way. in the early day of the crisis in china, a lot of people died while others are still in recovery so the death rate was almost 100%.

Check out the countries list.  It's not just China.  Iran is even worse in the ratio of deaths to recovered cases.

Deaths 34  Recovered 73

If you added 4000 people who got cold symptoms and never knew they had corona virus to those numbers, would that change your outlook?

I'm going by the actual data in the document rather than adding in a made up number that someone posted on the MMM forum with no reference.

Really, my concern was how many recovered vs. how many died.

Here's another one:

Diamond Princess:  Total deaths 6  Total recovered 10

Many other cases are still active, so we don't know where they will fall yet.

The point is that you have limited data, and certainly not enough to draw any conclusions. You don't know how many have recovered, because you don't know how many didn't present to the authorities. Which is why most reputable agencies are declining to give more than an indicative best guess about rates of exposure/infection/reinfection and death.

I said "things are looking" in my earlier post, not that I have come to any final "conclusion".

Yes, limited data, which is why I didn't "conclude" anything, and that's why I also specifically stated, "Many other cases are still active, so we don't know where they will fall yet."

But the way you're stating things is very misleading.

For example, Diamond Princess.

Diamond Princess:  Total deaths 6  Total recovered 10.

That sounds serious. But..... let's add in the fact (as reported by MULTIPLE agencies) that 705 were infected. Now it sounds not very serious. See how that works?

The information you supplied is actually completely irrelevant and pointless to mention without the information you haven't supplied.

I was very clear that I was stating how many recovered vs. how  many have died.  I've also stated twice, "Many other cases are still active, so we don't know where they will fall yet."   And also, I provided a link to the source of the data, so anyone can confirm this for themselves.  I certainly hope those people recover, but the odds are not looking good at all right now with 6 dying for every 10 recoveries.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #298 on: February 29, 2020, 09:39:40 AM »
This thread is beyond parody at this point.

This virus thing is the latest in media bullshit hype to keep you addicted to the news. 

Our modern healthcare system, and the international coordination of governments, makes it next to impossible for this to become a pandemic akin to the influenza spread of 1918.

The WHO and CDC disagree with you about this being bullshit and hype.  The market disagrees with you also.

There's debate on whether it's a pandemic. 

The World Health Organization has referred to the outbreak as an “epidemic” as opposed to a “pandemic.” But on Friday, it increased its assessment of the global risk of spread and the risk of impact of the coronavirus outbreak from “high” to “very high.”

red_pill

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #299 on: February 29, 2020, 09:43:24 AM »
This thread is beyond parody at this point.

This virus thing is the latest in media bullshit hype to keep you addicted to the news.  SARS, H1N1, Ebola...it's all bullshit fear-mongering, and a complete abuse of statistics.  Others, most notably nereo, have covered why the statistics are almost meaningless at this point, and actually show that the virus isn't that big of a deal.

Our modern healthcare system, and the international coordination of governments, makes it next to impossible for this to become a pandemic akin to the influenza spread of 1918.

I'm going to continue about my daily life, wash my hands after I poop, and sit around and wait for baseball season.

Possibly, but can we rely on the data from China or Iran enough to really know? Or do we have to wait a few weeks for the situation to mature in South Korea and Italy to get better data. At least that’s my suspicion. Maybe the WHO is able to get reliable info from China.

Also, is it just media pumping this up? Isn’t the WHO and CDC and various infectious disease folks also saying to prepare for significant disruption?  What interest would they have in advancing an overly alarmist message?

I actually see two risks. One is the risk of getting the disease. The case fatality rate isn’t insane like MERS, but it’s enough to make me not want to catch this cold. And if 20% of cases are severe that’s enough to overwhelm the medical system, with all sorts of cascading impacts.

The second risk I see is the impact of social panic by a largely unprepared population.  Panic buying etc. Even if this is “just a flu” and isn’t really real, the supply chain disruptions sure will be real if people treat it as such. Just think of the public reaction if the Pope dies of this...the hopes and prayers strategy will be completely undermined! ;)

Im not sure I would classify SARS as “bullshit fear mongering”.  If not for the purposeful intervention actions that would have really done a number on us.  It wouldn’t have gone away on its own.  And it seems this new virus is the same. 

Time will tell. And with now a string of untraceable community-transmitted cases in CA, OR and WA, that time will be coming soon.