Author Topic: Coronavirus preparedness  (Read 120973 times)

LightTripper

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1050 on: August 09, 2021, 04:34:14 PM »
I'm the same.  In principle I'm ready to move on as soon as everyone in the UK has had a chance to get their second shot + 2 weeks (should be by early September for 18+s I think).  Logically I can see that there is no reason at that point to keep infinitely kicking the can of opening down the road, barring a new far worse variant (and the prospect of new vaccines for that), or risk of the health sector being overwhelmed for some other reason.

In practice I'm still very aware that my kids are likely to catch the damn thing this autumn/winter which means (a) at least 10 days of no childcare and somehow still trying to hit (court-mandated) work deadlines through that period and (b) I may well catch it (despite vaccine) and potentially even pass it on - and really I would prefer none of these things happen because from a work/life perspective it will be a PITA, and of course we still don't really understand what's going on with long covid (including for kids).

But then, you might fairly ask, when will things get sufficiently better that I will say it's OK for life to go back to "normal"?  And I really have no answer to that.  So I think from September I am going to have to accept that this is really my own problem and as a family we'll just have to manage as best we can.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1051 on: August 09, 2021, 05:33:06 PM »
Regarding the moving goalposts comment, we basically declared victory and moved on this spring/early summer. Then the Delta variant gained a foothold and rapidly became the dominant strain. Delta moved the goalposts, not the CDC or politicians.

I want this to be over, too. I’ve had it and have also been fully vaccinated.  However, when I am frustrated, I remind myself that this is a “novel” virus - we don’t know everything about it. We can be oblivious and reckless, or we can be cautious while our experts examine new variants and their impacts. I prefer the cautious approach.

Zamboni

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1052 on: August 09, 2021, 05:44:45 PM »
My friends researching the lambda variant (dominant in Peru right now) say the spike protein mutation will likely mean the existing vaccines being administered worldwide won't work as well. Estimates are that the antibodies you currently have it you are fully vaccinated will be about 50% effective in terms of an immune response. Still better than not having been vaccinated at all, of course, and they will keep working on booster vaccines tailored to elicit stronger immune response to the newer variants.

It's far from over, folks. Sorry to say.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1053 on: August 09, 2021, 05:57:28 PM »
There you go, moving the goalposts again…

The 585

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1054 on: August 09, 2021, 06:03:04 PM »
Right, understood with the variants and whatnot, but at this rate we'll just perpetually stay in this phase of vaccine whack-a-mole for approximately... the rest of our lives? It's not sustainable.

I'm all for common sense measures like masking in high transmission situations. But the pointless travel bans need to end -- especially when showing vaccination status / pre-travel COVID testing are easy precautions.

Zamboni

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1055 on: August 09, 2021, 06:05:58 PM »
I completely agree that many of the travel bans are pointless. My favs for pointlessness are the ones where you have to test negative to get back into the US. Lol, that's darkly hilarious.

Prairie Gal

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1056 on: August 09, 2021, 06:19:11 PM »
Here in Alberta we have been told that Covid isn't going away, so we need to learn to live with it. So, in their infinite wisdom, the government is doing away with testing, contract tracing and isolating for all but the most severe cases (hospitalized I reckon) at the end of this month. Yup, you read that right. Even if you have covid there is no legal requirement to isolate. Which is almost a moot point, because the will be no testing available, so if you have symptoms you won't know if you have covid. Asinine.

We are only at about 66% of those eligible (over 12) fully vaccinated. There are plenty of rural areas that are at about 30-40%.

All restrictions on masking, social gatherings, distancing, etc were lifted on July 1. Since then, our numbers have been steadily rising.

Batten down the hatches, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Shane

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1057 on: August 09, 2021, 07:23:49 PM »
Now that everyone in North America has had access to free covid vaccines for months, people choosing to not get vaccinated are totally on their own, afaic. For the past year and a half, my family and I have sacrificed to keep others safe, while our anti-vaxx neighbors continued living their lives as usual. Now, I'm supposed to keep social distancing and wearing masks in order to keep them safe? Fuck that bullshit! Ain't happening.

elaine amj

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1058 on: August 09, 2021, 09:11:22 PM »
Here in Alberta we have been told that Covid isn't going away, so we need to learn to live with it. So, in their infinite wisdom, the government is doing away with testing, contract tracing and isolating for all but the most severe cases (hospitalized I reckon) at the end of this month. Yup, you read that right. Even if you have covid there is no legal requirement to isolate. Which is almost a moot point, because the will be no testing available, so if you have symptoms you won't know if you have covid. Asinine.

We are only at about 66% of those eligible (over 12) fully vaccinated. There are plenty of rural areas that are at about 30-40%.

All restrictions on masking, social gatherings, distancing, etc were lifted on July 1. Since then, our numbers have been steadily rising.

Batten down the hatches, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
Ouch. No easy access to testing either? That's just crazy.

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The 585

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1059 on: August 09, 2021, 11:10:56 PM »
Here in Alberta we have been told that Covid isn't going away, so we need to learn to live with it. So, in their infinite wisdom, the government is doing away with testing, contract tracing and isolating for all but the most severe cases (hospitalized I reckon) at the end of this month. Yup, you read that right. Even if you have covid there is no legal requirement to isolate. Which is almost a moot point, because the will be no testing available, so if you have symptoms you won't know if you have covid. Asinine.

We are only at about 66% of those eligible (over 12) fully vaccinated. There are plenty of rural areas that are at about 30-40%.

All restrictions on masking, social gatherings, distancing, etc were lifted on July 1. Since then, our numbers have been steadily rising.

Batten down the hatches, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

We've all gotta get to that point eventually, what better time than when you're fully vaxxed and 99.99% protected against hospitalization and death?

If the 0.01% chance is still too risky, I'm sure you can hop across the border to British Columbia and have your lockdowns and restrictions back. :P

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1060 on: August 10, 2021, 01:55:00 AM »
I work under the assumption that I will get exposed at some time, but then hope the vaccination will do its magic. For all I know I already had it, albeit not extreme likely given the rather low infection numbers where I live - around 5-6% of pop confirmed so real maybe say 10% and I've not really socialized a lot and been working a lot form home. The kids will go back to school and people will start travelling more are there ain't much I can do about that.

Someone talked about kids wearing face masks in school here some month back but that idea was effectively shot down by pretty much everyone and it's not been on the table since. We currently have no mask mandate and usage has declined significantly. Think you still kind of supposed to wear one at crowded public transport but not sure as I have barely used public in 15 months and when I did it was pretty much empty.

Luckily the population appears tad saner so the vaxx rate will end up very high which should help everyone. I have no influence over what people in other places on the planet do or will be able to do on that front so what happens will happen.


Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1061 on: August 10, 2021, 02:52:59 AM »
It’s so different here. We had a few outbreaks in other cities, and one locally transmitted case here in Shanghai, and everyone freaked out. Temperature checks at all malls and restaurants, mandatory masks in public places, and our work is forbidding us from leaving the city for nonessential reasons.

On the other hand, all our restaurants are open, all our malls are open, and it’s pretty much business as usual except everyone’s wearing masks.

Our vaccination rate is decent, but uses old vaccine technology. We are being told it’s more effective for the delta variant than the mRNA vaccines. Who knows if it’s true, but for the most part, everyone tries to social distance and/or wear masks if social distancing is not achievable. Our new reality is to grab your wallet, your phone, your keys, and your mask before heading out the door. And to wash your hands as soon as you return home.

SunnyDays

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1062 on: August 10, 2021, 10:01:39 AM »
Now that everyone in North America has had access to free covid vaccines for months, people choosing to not get vaccinated are totally on their own, afaic. For the past year and a half, my family and I have sacrificed to keep others safe, while our anti-vaxx neighbors continued living their lives as usual. Now, I'm supposed to keep social distancing and wearing masks in order to keep them safe? Fuck that bullshit! Ain't happening.

I can't argue with that sentiment; I don't care about the willingly unvaxxed either.  But, I will still continue to wear a mask for my own benefit, because even if Covid won't kill or even hospitalize me, I have no desire to be sick from it to any degree.  It's a no big deal thing to me.

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1063 on: August 10, 2021, 11:35:36 AM »
Now that everyone in North America has had access to free covid vaccines for months, people choosing to not get vaccinated are totally on their own, afaic. For the past year and a half, my family and I have sacrificed to keep others safe, while our anti-vaxx neighbors continued living their lives as usual. Now, I'm supposed to keep social distancing and wearing masks in order to keep them safe? Fuck that bullshit! Ain't happening.

I can't argue with that sentiment; I don't care about the willingly unvaxxed either.  But, I will still continue to wear a mask for my own benefit, because even if Covid won't kill or even hospitalize me, I have no desire to be sick from it to any degree.  It's a no big deal thing to me.

I'll continue to mask religiously because young children are still vulnerable and vaxxed can easily catch and spread without symptoms

The 585

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1064 on: August 10, 2021, 12:40:55 PM »
Now that everyone in North America has had access to free covid vaccines for months, people choosing to not get vaccinated are totally on their own, afaic. For the past year and a half, my family and I have sacrificed to keep others safe, while our anti-vaxx neighbors continued living their lives as usual. Now, I'm supposed to keep social distancing and wearing masks in order to keep them safe? Fuck that bullshit! Ain't happening.

I can't argue with that sentiment; I don't care about the willingly unvaxxed either.  But, I will still continue to wear a mask for my own benefit, because even if Covid won't kill or even hospitalize me, I have no desire to be sick from it to any degree.  It's a no big deal thing to me.

I'll continue to mask religiously because young children are still vulnerable and vaxxed can easily catch and spread without symptoms

I certainly understand the sentiment of being cautious when possible, but according to the data we have COVID is fatal in only 0.00% to 0.03% of cases in children.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/08/10/1026375608/nearly-94-000-kids-got-covid-19-last-week-they-were-15-of-all-new-infections

Any death is terrible, but with a 0.00% to 0.03% fatality rate in children I think there's many riskier things out there.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1065 on: August 10, 2021, 12:44:54 PM »
Now that everyone in North America has had access to free covid vaccines for months, people choosing to not get vaccinated are totally on their own, afaic. For the past year and a half, my family and I have sacrificed to keep others safe, while our anti-vaxx neighbors continued living their lives as usual. Now, I'm supposed to keep social distancing and wearing masks in order to keep them safe? Fuck that bullshit! Ain't happening.

I can't argue with that sentiment; I don't care about the willingly unvaxxed either.  But, I will still continue to wear a mask for my own benefit, because even if Covid won't kill or even hospitalize me, I have no desire to be sick from it to any degree.  It's a no big deal thing to me.

I'll continue to mask religiously because young children are still vulnerable and vaxxed can easily catch and spread without symptoms

I certainly understand the sentiment of being cautious when possible, but according to the data we have COVID is fatal in only 0.00% to 0.03% of cases in children.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/08/10/1026375608/nearly-94-000-kids-got-covid-19-last-week-they-were-15-of-all-new-infections

Any death is terrible, but with a 0.00% to 0.03% rate in children I think there's many riskier things out there.

I'm with you on this.  But, I predict that there will be people wearing masks for a very long time.  Covid scared the shit out of a lot of folks, and no amount of data is ever going to convince some that it's "safe" again.  To each their own, but yeah... much more dangerous things to worry about for kids and vaccinated folks IMHO.

SunnyDays

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1066 on: August 10, 2021, 05:01:17 PM »
My province eliminated the mask mandate this past Saturday, and on my errands today, only about 1/4 - 1/3 of the people I saw were wearing one.  Case numbers are way down here, but I'm still wearing one until I see what happens with Delta locally.  We've been behind the rest of Canada in other waves, so I'm not letting my guard down just yet.

K_in_the_kitchen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1067 on: August 10, 2021, 05:31:41 PM »
I'm with you on this.  But, I predict that there will be people wearing masks for a very long time.  Covid scared the shit out of a lot of folks, and no amount of data is ever going to convince some that it's "safe" again.  To each their own, but yeah... much more dangerous things to worry about for kids and vaccinated folks IMHO.

I dislike mask wearing, but I will be wearing a mask indoors in public spaces for "a very long time."  Not because I don't understand the data, but because it's been wonderful to not get sick with a cold or the flu. During the pandemic I learned that staying away from crowded places (indoors), wearing a mask when I did go inside public spaces, and using hand sanitizer upon exit (versus waiting to wash my hands at home) eliminated catching colds or the flu, so I'll keep those behaviors going forward.  As a bonus, if I do get ill and have to go somewhere -- even the doctor's office -- I know keeping my distance, wearing a mask, and frequently cleaning my hands might help prevent someone else from catching it.  Since the data suggest there's no risk to not getting sick as an adult (in other words not getting sick now isn't going to weaken my immune system), I prefer not to, especially since even a simple cold can aggravate my asthma for a month or more.  That's the big takeaway for me: I didn't need to use my asthma inhaler this past fall/winter.  Even fully vaccinated, I'd rather not get C19 if I can help it.  And right now?  Right now I'm willing to do my part for all of the people who can't be vaccinated due to age or medical conditions, and for those who are immunocompromised and ended up not getting immunity from the vaccine.  Because I could catch C19, be asymptomatic, and pass on the virus to someone who can't be vaccinated.  I do agree at some point things are going to have to stabilize and the unvaccinated (plenty in my own extended family) are going to have to deal with the consequences of their choices, but I don't think that should be before we have an FDA approved vaccine for all ages.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1068 on: August 10, 2021, 05:41:30 PM »
I'm with you on this.  But, I predict that there will be people wearing masks for a very long time.  Covid scared the shit out of a lot of folks, and no amount of data is ever going to convince some that it's "safe" again.  To each their own, but yeah... much more dangerous things to worry about for kids and vaccinated folks IMHO.

I dislike mask wearing, but I will be wearing a mask indoors in public spaces for "a very long time."  Not because I don't understand the data, but because it's been wonderful to not get sick with a cold or the flu. During the pandemic I learned that staying away from crowded places (indoors), wearing a mask when I did go inside public spaces, and using hand sanitizer upon exit (versus waiting to wash my hands at home) eliminated catching colds or the flu, so I'll keep those behaviors going forward.  As a bonus, if I do get ill and have to go somewhere -- even the doctor's office -- I know keeping my distance, wearing a mask, and frequently cleaning my hands might help prevent someone else from catching it.  Since the data suggest there's no risk to not getting sick as an adult (in other words not getting sick now isn't going to weaken my immune system), I prefer not to, especially since even a simple cold can aggravate my asthma for a month or more.  That's the big takeaway for me: I didn't need to use my asthma inhaler this past fall/winter.  Even fully vaccinated, I'd rather not get C19 if I can help it.  And right now?  Right now I'm willing to do my part for all of the people who can't be vaccinated due to age or medical conditions, and for those who are immunocompromised and ended up not getting immunity from the vaccine.  Because I could catch C19, be asymptomatic, and pass on the virus to someone who can't be vaccinated.  I do agree at some point things are going to have to stabilize and the unvaccinated (plenty in my own extended family) are going to have to deal with the consequences of their choices, but I don't think that should be before we have an FDA approved vaccine for all ages.

That's fair, you do what you want for the future.  I'll say this though, those who are immunocompromised and cannot be vaccinated for whatever reason don't need you wearing a mask to protect them anymore.  They can now purchase a properly fitted N95 / P95 or even 100 mask and completely protect themselves regardless of what those around them decide to do.  Many people seem to have forgotten that cloth mask wearing, the type of masking that required all to participate for efficiency, is a relic of the early days of Covid when PPE was a protected commodity for those who really needed it.

Mr. Green

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1069 on: August 10, 2021, 06:38:37 PM »
Now that everyone in North America has had access to free covid vaccines for months, people choosing to not get vaccinated are totally on their own, afaic. For the past year and a half, my family and I have sacrificed to keep others safe, while our anti-vaxx neighbors continued living their lives as usual. Now, I'm supposed to keep social distancing and wearing masks in order to keep them safe? Fuck that bullshit! Ain't happening.

I can't argue with that sentiment; I don't care about the willingly unvaxxed either.  But, I will still continue to wear a mask for my own benefit, because even if Covid won't kill or even hospitalize me, I have no desire to be sick from it to any degree.  It's a no big deal thing to me.

I'll continue to mask religiously because young children are still vulnerable and vaxxed can easily catch and spread without symptoms

I certainly understand the sentiment of being cautious when possible, but according to the data we have COVID is fatal in only 0.00% to 0.03% of cases in children.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/08/10/1026375608/nearly-94-000-kids-got-covid-19-last-week-they-were-15-of-all-new-infections

Any death is terrible, but with a 0.00% to 0.03% fatality rate in children I think there's many riskier things out there.
This approach does leave plenty of room for a heavy dose of irony if a long-term health effect is realized as a result of even mild cases of covid. Do experts know that this isn't probable yet, being a novel virus? It seems the current concern is in those who experienced brain related symptoms and early onset dementia. That's about 25% of cases so far. I imagine that old time ad with the squeaky clean guy snapping and pointing his finger, with his one tooth sparkling, as he says, "well they didn't die from it so I'd call that a success." It's kinda weird that we write that off, like death or nothing.

K_in_the_kitchen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1070 on: August 10, 2021, 09:02:13 PM »


That's fair, you do what you want for the future.  I'll say this though, those who are immunocompromised and cannot be vaccinated for whatever reason don't need you wearing a mask to protect them anymore.  They can now purchase a properly fitted N95 / P95 or even 100 mask and completely protect themselves regardless of what those around them decide to do.  Many people seem to have forgotten that cloth mask wearing, the type of masking that required all to participate for efficiency, is a relic of the early days of Covid when PPE was a protected commodity for those who really needed it.

Sure, but a child under 3 can't wear that kind of mask.  Heck, a child under 7 is going to struggle with it and probably touch it often, move it around, and not wear it properly, if it even fits them at all.  And what if it's an economically disadvantaged family that can't afford to keep themselves in N95s?  What if it's an autistic child under 12 who can't wear a mask?  I have to think outside of the middle class, able bubble.

You do what you want for the future.  We are where we are as a society, and individualism rules the day, but it doesn't rule my values.  I hope there will come a time when the vast majority of us will go unmasked because more of the population has Covid antibodies via immunization or having contracted the disease.  I hope that happens sooner rather than later, so we can get ahead of variants.  But for now, I'll wear a mask.  I also stop at stop signs when there aren't any other cars at the intersection.  I'm not unhappy being me.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1071 on: August 10, 2021, 09:44:59 PM »
Delta cases are blowing up in our state and in our county.  Hospitals are full, and we've basically not started taking precautions yet.  Our governor just announced a new mask mandate which will be rolled out tomorrow.  This will help as the spread slows, but Covid cases have a sort of momentum, so the counts are likely to increase for several more weeks... if people actually follow the mask guidelines.  I can't wait to watch the sh*tshow reaction to it from some in our community.  Never mind that new cases are at their highest point in the whole pandemic and the biggest community festival of the year starts tomorrow.  I'm afraid we're going to see some sad stories coming soon.

In other news, I just found out a friend is one of the breakthrough cases.  Despite being vaccinated, they were down for a week with a "mild" case of Covid.  Of course with Covid-19, "mild" is relative to drowning in your own mucus alone on a ventilator...

Mr. Green

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1072 on: August 10, 2021, 10:40:46 PM »
Just came across this gem. A study of studies finds 80% of cases across ~48k people with COVID having at least one long-term symptom. Even if the data is off by a little bit as we plod through these early days of studies, that's quite something. Of course no one is quantifying long term yet. One month and six month suferrers are all lumped into the same group. I think I'll keep masking. Lol

https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2021/08/10/there_are_more_than_50_long-term_effects_of_covid-19_789293.html

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1073 on: August 11, 2021, 03:15:48 AM »
Just came across this gem. A study of studies finds 80% of cases across ~48k people with COVID having at least one long-term symptom. Even if the data is off by a little bit as we plod through these early days of studies, that's quite something. Of course no one is quantifying long term yet. One month and six month suferrers are all lumped into the same group. I think I'll keep masking. Lol

https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2021/08/10/there_are_more_than_50_long-term_effects_of_covid-19_789293.html

This is the part of covid-space Im most sceptical about. I have no idea how many actual have "long covid" (however you define that), but the alarm bells ring a bit when various studies show wildly different results. Some say very high, some have close to zero after 6 months or whatever. When the results vary this much, my inital thought is that the methodology is inconsistent across studies and they aren't really talking about the same thing. Some look at people with "just" an infection, some at pateiens who have been hospitalized. Some are quite closely followed up by the primary health service, others are based on self-reporting.

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1074 on: August 11, 2021, 04:00:07 AM »
Just came across this gem. A study of studies finds 80% of cases across ~48k people with COVID having at least one long-term symptom. Even if the data is off by a little bit as we plod through these early days of studies, that's quite something. Of course no one is quantifying long term yet. One month and six month suferrers are all lumped into the same group. I think I'll keep masking. Lol

https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2021/08/10/there_are_more_than_50_long-term_effects_of_covid-19_789293.html

This is the part of covid-space Im most sceptical about. I have no idea how many actual have "long covid" (however you define that), but the alarm bells ring a bit when various studies show wildly different results. Some say very high, some have close to zero after 6 months or whatever. When the results vary this much, my inital thought is that the methodology is inconsistent across studies and they aren't really talking about the same thing. Some look at people with "just" an infection, some at pateiens who have been hospitalized. Some are quite closely followed up by the primary health service, others are based on self-reporting.

Yes. That's a general problem with large, retrospective (i.e., analysis of previously collected data not subject to careful controls) clinical or epidemiological studies. It isn't limited to COVID studies. It is difficult to draw causal inferences from such studies, and difficult to make meaningful statistical comparisons between studies. However, it can be more difficult, expensive and, in some cases, unethical to conduct prospective studies.

For example, it would be unethical to willingly withhold a known effective treatment from a non-consenting ailing patient to see if their long-term symptoms resolve differently than those of someone who received the treatment. Instead, researchers would have to look back at the clinical data collected from all patients in a given time frame and compare long-term outcomes between those given or not given the treatment. Some relevant measures may not have been collected at all or from all patients. There also may be uncontrolled confounding factors (confounder bias). Researchers may have to compare data from untreated patients seen during the early phase of the pandemic with data from those who received the treatment after it was introduced in later phases, and the patient populations may differ in demographics, variant infection, or standard clinical treatment protocols.

jrhampt

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1075 on: August 11, 2021, 05:04:56 AM »
I went to the grocery store last night and 80-90% of people were masked again (including me).  It's quite a dramatic change from earlier this summer and it happened very quickly.  Our county is at the "substantial" spread level now but three of our counties are now "high".  No mask mandate statewide yet but some individual cities are starting to mandate.  Looks like New Haven has some bars and gyms asking for proof of vaccination or negative test before entry (I'm all for this approach).

Metalcat

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1076 on: August 11, 2021, 05:41:03 AM »
Just came across this gem. A study of studies finds 80% of cases across ~48k people with COVID having at least one long-term symptom. Even if the data is off by a little bit as we plod through these early days of studies, that's quite something. Of course no one is quantifying long term yet. One month and six month suferrers are all lumped into the same group. I think I'll keep masking. Lol

https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2021/08/10/there_are_more_than_50_long-term_effects_of_covid-19_789293.html

This is the part of covid-space Im most sceptical about. I have no idea how many actual have "long covid" (however you define that), but the alarm bells ring a bit when various studies show wildly different results. Some say very high, some have close to zero after 6 months or whatever. When the results vary this much, my inital thought is that the methodology is inconsistent across studies and they aren't really talking about the same thing. Some look at people with "just" an infection, some at pateiens who have been hospitalized. Some are quite closely followed up by the primary health service, others are based on self-reporting.

Yeah, like pp said, this isn't a covid thing, this is a science thing.

People have an illusion of science being a coordinated, cohesive thing, but it really isn't. It only looks that way when the global science community has been working on a subject matter for long enough to all converge on similar methods and metrics.

But even then, it's still a whole bunch of disparate noise.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1077 on: August 11, 2021, 06:19:56 AM »

Yeah, like pp said, this isn't a covid thing, this is a science thing.

People have an illusion of science being a coordinated, cohesive thing, but it really isn't. It only looks that way when the global science community has been working on a subject matter for long enough to all converge on similar methods and metrics.

But even then, it's still a whole bunch of disparate noise.

Yeah, aware of that - I have at least studied something sinency back in the day. When the pandemic hit in march last year one dude at a university hospital here predicted that in the coming months and years there will be an avalanche of studies out, a lot will be printed a lot earlier than they oterhwise would, many will not be peer-reviewed, some will be very good some will be crappy, some should never been published or even conducted in the first place. And lots of journalists will distort it furither as they haven't read the studies in the first place and probably wouldn't understand if they even bothered.

I pretty quickly stopped paying much attention to "a study says...." in this field as you can find some study supporing pretty much anything.

Metalcat

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1078 on: August 11, 2021, 06:25:36 AM »

Yeah, like pp said, this isn't a covid thing, this is a science thing.

People have an illusion of science being a coordinated, cohesive thing, but it really isn't. It only looks that way when the global science community has been working on a subject matter for long enough to all converge on similar methods and metrics.

But even then, it's still a whole bunch of disparate noise.

Yeah, aware of that - I have at least studied something sinency back in the day. When the pandemic hit in march last year one dude at a university hospital here predicted that in the coming months and years there will be an avalanche of studies out, a lot will be printed a lot earlier than they oterhwise would, many will not be peer-reviewed, some will be very good some will be crappy, some should never been published or even conducted in the first place. And lots of journalists will distort it furither as they haven't read the studies in the first place and probably wouldn't understand if they even bothered.

I pretty quickly stopped paying much attention to "a study says...." in this field as you can find some study supporing pretty much anything.

I'm a former scientist and I stopped paying attention to "a study says" nearly 20 years ago.

How you feel about covid science reporting is how I feel about ALL science reporting.

youngwildandfree

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1079 on: August 11, 2021, 06:56:33 AM »
This one made me laugh this morning:

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1080 on: August 28, 2021, 01:09:36 PM »
From a local news comment:

Australia was founded as a prison. Now it has returned to its roots.
...
A TV feature from an Australian broadcaster has been circulating on social media. A random 27-year-old is caugt in the act of taking the elevator without a face mask despite being corona-infected. Now he is wanted with the name and picture of the police and the health service.

- He is an example of the worst of the worst, says the Australian Minister of Health seriously.

Eagerly, the TV reporter further says that "there is no sympathy for those who break the corona rules". The photos show eight young people who have been partying at Sydney's river bed. Police searchlights revealed them. They are arrested, handcuffed and fined. A well-known rugby player has also been stopped by the police for taking a car trip from home without good reason. He has admitted that he only wanted to visit a friend.

References to George Orwell are a cliché. But if he had made TV from a dystopian future society, it would probably look something like this.

The country is one of those that has opted for a zero vision for the corona. Australia and New Zealand closed the borders almost hermetically. At times, they have had new internal freedom while Europeans went through shutdowns. Now it looks much darker. Because how do you get out of something like that?

State Secretary Gladys Berejiklian has announced that face masks, distance rules and vaccine passes will be required "as long as the deadly covid virus exists". That means years. Maybe forever.
...
The road to hell goes through intentions for the infection-free society.


We (Norway) now have the highest number of infections ever. But hardly anyone cares. "Noone" is wearing a face mask, the hospitals are mostly empty of covid patients. despite a resent increase in admitted patients (all of 60 now in the entire country). Our "CDC" pointed out that during flu season 2-300 are admitted to hospitals every week and noone cares at all. This is the new normal. Anyone over 18 who wants to have been eligible for 1st dose and almost everyone for 2nd. Now it's an ordinary disease and no reason to make any fuss about. Further south Denmark officiialy declared public health crisis over and they are gonna view it like an ordinary disease with no special measures required.

Pretty much every case is delta btw. alpha et al are considered gone for good.

If anyone still thinks Australia and NZ had a brilliant approach to this must have been smoking something I'd like some of. Melbourne is now on day 200-something of lockdown since it all started and they have completely screwed up the vaccination drive.



deborah

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1081 on: August 28, 2021, 03:04:52 PM »
There is some truth in what you’re saying about Australia.

Gladys berejiklian is the Premier of NSW, which is one of our states. Maybe the NSW State Governor might be an equivalent. She’s certainly not State Secretary!

Our federal government is responsible for the vaccine supply and quarantine. Both are problematic. We have a very limited supply of vaccines, and the quarantine facilities have mainly been hotels which have poor ventilation, so covid19 (particularly the delta strain) is finding it easy to infect others in these facilities.

We originally went for suppression, but somehow found ourselves at zero, after the very successful efforts of the state governments. I’m very glad that we did, given the problems we’ve had with the vaccine supply. It’s getting better, and we’re now vaccinating at a pretty fast rate, although we’re still hampered by the vaccine supply (where I live, appointments are already fully booked up until mid October). We have very good testing, and know where almost every positive case got it from.

One of our states, Victoria, has fully suppressed the delta strain twice after it escaped quarantine each time. However, about two months ago, NSW got it, and has not been successful in suppressing it, although they have managed to keep the R value at R1.3, rather than the R4 or more that it is. They had extremely good contact tracing, and expected that would enable them to have a softer lockdown.

Unfortunately they exported it to most other states, and New Zealand (which has had worse problems getting vaccine). Because we have all had low access to vaccines, our populations are very vulnerable, so just letting it rip wouldn’t work at all well. The NSW hospital system is very stretched at the moment. Unfortunately it’s got into western NSW (about two thirds of the state) which is a very remote area with very poor medical coverage - they have a flying doctor service (in a plane) that visits all the remote communities, maybe once a week, no hospitals with the facilities needed for covid19, and very low vaccination rates.

The other places which have been seeded by NSW (currently Victoria, ACT and NZ) may get it under control. The ACT is currently in a three week lockdown, the first we’ve had since the beginning, and we may finish in a week. Victoria is having problems, because there appear to have been multiple seeding events - they look like they’re almost on top of it, but they may not be. NZ have just announced another extension of their lockdown.

We’re going through the types of lockdowns that other nations went through last year. I don’t think that we’ve had more than a lot of other nations.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1082 on: August 28, 2021, 03:31:59 PM »
By aussie stndards ive had zero days of lockdown. Yes, kids had home schooling for almsost two
Months last year and I’ve been working a lot from home. But I’ve been free to travel within my own country and when I go out there is no risk of being harassed by police.

Some envied you (I never did) now the utter stupidity of “zero infections” are on full display. Civil liberties have its values if you don’t want to be a moron as reported from the US.

You are now the most dystopian society in the western world. The rest get along because they got their. Vaccine shit together and never had the idea that every infection is the end of the world. We have also had those voices but they have generally been viewed as bat-shit crazy.

Our mantra has been keep it under control, treat those who need it and get people vaccinated. Then what happens happens. By your current mindset there will never be an end to this. When our vaccination drive is over we will still have around 20 percent unvaccinated but they will be kids and it is assumed to be fine. Adults who didn’t want the vaccine are no reason to care about. It’s their own choice. They will get treated but will get zero sympathy and viewed as stupid.

deborah

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1083 on: August 28, 2021, 05:41:49 PM »
A lot of this is not true.

We have always wanted vaccines. Early on, Europe denied us vaccines we had already bought when they were about to arrive (and then A WEEK LATER Italy decided not to use that vaccine after all), as did the US. We ARE getting vaccinated quite quickly currently, but are still having supply problems, with vaccines that we ordered being delayed for a long time. Both Moderna and Novavax have yet to arrive at all. To see our current vaccination rates, see

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/08/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-28-august-2021.pdf

You will also note (from the charts) that we plan to open up when 80% or those who are eligible (over 16 year olds) are vaccinated, so your comments about that are also incorrect. This is expected to happen this year.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1084 on: August 29, 2021, 04:45:24 AM »
A lot of this is not true.

We have always wanted vaccines. Early on, Europe denied us vaccines we had already bought when they were about to arrive (and then A WEEK LATER Italy decided not to use that vaccine after all), as did the US. We ARE getting vaccinated quite quickly currently, but are still having supply problems, with vaccines that we ordered being delayed for a long time. Both Moderna and Novavax have yet to arrive at all.

You will also note (from the charts) that we plan to open up when 80% or those who are eligible (over 16 year olds) are vaccinated, so your comments about that are also incorrect. This is expected to happen this year.

I din't mean to imply that your government doesn't want vaccines or aren't trying hard to get hold of 'em and administer as soon as possible. Lack of does has been the main issue almost everywhere until very recently. We had a lot of whining about US/Israel/UK being far ahead, but surprisingly many seemed to not grasp that it was mathematically impossible for the EU to have the same progression as the US as that would mean the EU alone would need more doses that available in the EU and US combined.

The question is what will happen when vaccination rates reach a sufficient level and if one is mentally able to adjust. Based on local experience quite a lot of politicians and other decision-makers seem to have big problems with changing their mindset and adopt to the new situation. Now that our infection rates are - by local standards - high and rising fast you see this very clearly. Some places the authorities are quite relaxed about it, other places they freak out. And we have always accepted quite a few infection as long as it is kept under control and within the health system's capacity. That has, in hindsight, worked out pretty well while it wasn't a given from the onset it would.

Ironically for me, the Covid-risk has probably never been bigger than now when I've had my two Moderna shots, overall vacc rate is high and rising fast where I live. Earlier, the risk of me personally being exposed was virtually zero due to the nature of my everyday life and very low case rates nationally. Now the probability of being exposed is probably pretty close to 100 percent over some timeframe as noone thinks the virus will go away any time soon and when that happens I probably won't notice at all, I might get mild symptoms and there is a very low probability of me getting seriously ill and maybe even need hospitalization, but that is extremely unlikely and I risk Im happy to live with and so is the majority of our society.

Society will have to learn to live with this virus, maybe for a very long time. Gonna be exiting to see how that will play out where there has been a "zero covid" policy as it will not get to zero once things normalize again. Now its spreading fast among the younger cohorts as was expected when school holiday was over. Around 50% of cases are now 18s or younger and only about 3% aged 60+. It was just decided that 16-18 should be vaccinated here - not because our "CDC" think they really need to, but they reason it will be quite effective in limiting spread as this is an age group with a lot of mobility and lots of close contacts.

« Last Edit: August 29, 2021, 05:49:54 AM by habanero »

Cranky

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1085 on: August 29, 2021, 01:41:59 PM »
When the hospital is full of unvaccinated Covid patients, there’s no room for people who need care for other things, so you kinda have to go on caring about that.

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1086 on: August 29, 2021, 02:57:26 PM »
.
Society will have to learn to live with this virus, maybe for a very long time. Gonna be exiting to see how that will play out where there has been a "zero covid" policy as it will not get to zero once things normalize again. Now its spreading fast among the younger cohorts as was expected when school holiday was over. Around 50% of cases are now 18s or younger and only about 3% aged 60+. It was just decided that 16-18 should be vaccinated here - not because our "CDC" think they really need to, but they reason it will be quite effective in limiting spread as this is an age group with a lot of mobility and lots of close contacts.

Good luck. Children’s hospitals in the US are starting to fill up with COVID patients who are too young to be vaccinated or whose parents refused to authorize vaccination, and many US school districts haven’t even started the fall semester yet.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1087 on: August 29, 2021, 04:24:10 PM »
Good luck. Children’s hospitals in the US are starting to fill up with COVID patients who are too young to be vaccinated or whose parents refused to authorize vaccination, and many US school districts haven’t even started the fall semester yet.

Im pretty certain our health folks are aware of that and are monitoring our local situation. Currently, 7-8 patients in total (all age groups combined) are admitted to hospital due to covid-19 as the main reason on a daily basis in the entire country. Last 4 weeks 8 patients under 18 were admitted in total. This is in a population of 5.4 million and current infection rate is bit over 1000 / day (and rising) so I don't think they are overly worried for the time being. I don't think what happens in the US is very relevant for our situation, at least it hasn't been so far at least as there are just too many differences in culture and how people behave despite the virus and the disease being the same.

We have adults in the room watching this and if things should, against their assumptions, escalate there will be measures taken before stuff gets ugly because it has been done so far during the pandemic and I see no reason to expect otherwise in this wave. The main goal has been preventing strain on the healthcare system and that has been successfully achieved since the pandemic started and the powers that be are not very worried at the time being, but that might of course change should circumstances change. I assume they have sufficient local data to have an educated opinion on how things will evolve.

Our "CDC" maintains the view that kids are at very low risk for hospitalization and they haven't changed their view since the delta variant by far became the dominant, variant in circulation. So far I don't see any reason why they should be of any other opinion and I assume they know way more than me about this.

We do give vaccines down to 12 years where the kids due to some underlying condition are considered at-risk. As the population, in this regard, is a lot more enlightened than in the US its very hard to see many parents denying their kids the shot if they are considered at-risk. According to the news around 3000 kids aged 12-15 are in scope for this. Both Moderna and Pfizer shots are authorized down to 12 years (like in the US, I think) so there is also the option of doing mass vaccinations down to that age and afaik it's currently "under debate" but not a very high priority as there is no need for the time being. But as all things pandemic, that might of course change.


Cranky

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1088 on: August 29, 2021, 08:17:46 PM »
The trouble is that while any individual child is probably at low risk, if every single kid under 12 gets Covid there are going to be a lot of very, very sick kids. That seems to be where we’re heading with Delta.

As I said very early in this discussion - 1% of everybody is a lot of people.

stoaX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1089 on: August 30, 2021, 05:44:17 AM »
This one made me laugh this morning:

And now I'm laughing this morning!

Imma

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1090 on: August 30, 2021, 11:01:19 AM »
The trouble is that while any individual child is probably at low risk, if every single kid under 12 gets Covid there are going to be a lot of very, very sick kids. That seems to be where we’re heading with Delta.

As I said very early in this discussion - 1% of everybody is a lot of people.

That's true, but in a country where almost everyone over the age of 12 is vaccinated, like Norway, the Netherlands, and probably several more countries in Europe, the virus simply doesn't get the chance to spread as fast. And as @habanero said, we have adults watching this. Right now our healthcare systems can cope, if there's any risk of that not being the case, there'll be new measures, and people will follow them.

Over the past 1,5 years, a large group of kids has already come into contact with Covid and has built up natural antibodies (according to research, children under 10 build up the highest amount of antibodies after infection, more than adults) and the very youngest children get Covid antibodies through breastfeeding.

With 90% of those of 12 vaccinated + let's say half of non-vaccinated adults has natural antibodies = 95% of those over 12 vaccinated, and maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of children with natural antibodies, the group of children susceptible to Covid is not that big. Schools are opening without social distancing here for the autumn term, but the virus won't be able to spread like in Feb 2020 before social distancing. Does that mean it's risk free? Sadly, no. A handful of kids are unfortunately going to be very ill. But other childhood viruses also make a small group of children very ill and we think that's an acceptable risk of life.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1091 on: August 30, 2021, 01:32:58 PM »

That's true, but in a country where almost everyone over the age of 12 is vaccinated, like Norway, the Netherlands, and probably several more countries in Europe, the virus simply doesn't get the chance to spread as fast. And as @habanero said, we have adults watching this. Right now our healthcare systems can cope, if there's any risk of that not being the case, there'll be new measures, and people will follow them.



We (Norway) hasn't vaccinated down to 12 yet and not all adults have had their 2nd dose, the latter is 2-3 weeks into the future. The final decision on what to do with 12-15s is not even made but expected very shortly. Just started on 16-17s and a handful of at-risk kids down to 12 are offered vaccination. Cases among the youngest are rising fast but still not much in terms of hospitalizations but that might change and if so the approach will change and folks will comply. The admitted patients are (still) predominantly non-vaccinated adults. Around 10% of adult population, about 450k persons have for one reason or the other choosen not to get their 1st shot yet so there is still plently of folks who will get seriously ill in the event of massive community spread in all age cohorts. So far, symptomatic delta infections amongst the 60+ are quite rare and the vacc rate is over 90% in that group.

We have had schools open since may last year after an almost 2 months long closure (in hindsight recognized as a mistake and lasting too long) and it has worked out fine with the "original" virus, the alpha and so far with the delta variant. The decision to keep schools open is not very controversial and closing schools en masse is the very last thing our government wants to do. Not starting jabbing of 12-16s is somewhat more controversial. Masks have never been mandated in primary schools and I doubt they ever will. It was briefly suggested last year among our few "zero covidists" but was pretty quickly shot down and hasn't been mentioned since.

Our experience so far during the pandemic is a pretty low disease burden, the hospitals have never been under any serious stress (the main goal) and total deaths since the pandemic started is lower than during a regular flu season and we have had no excess mortality and we count every single covid death so no underreporting. What is done and isn't done now is obviously influenced by this experience while the powers that be fully admits that the delta strain spreads far quicker than earlier variants, they (currently) think the vacccination rate in the adult population is sufficient to prevent any big drama. If facts on the ground change, the assesment will change and the population will comply. We have the odd conspiracy theorists, but they are few, and deniers are very few and far between.

If you landed in our capital now you would be very hard pressed to see any clear signs there is a pandemic going on. Life goes on pretty much as normal bar very large gatherings such as big concerts and there is somewhat reduced capacity in bars/restaurants but apart from that, not much that's obvious. Mask wearing is approaching zero (there is no mandate).

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1092 on: October 12, 2021, 03:52:55 AM »
.
Society will have to learn to live with this virus, maybe for a very long time. Gonna be exiting to see how that will play out where there has been a "zero covid" policy as it will not get to zero once things normalize again. Now its spreading fast among the younger cohorts as was expected when school holiday was over. Around 50% of cases are now 18s or younger and only about 3% aged 60+. It was just decided that 16-18 should be vaccinated here - not because our "CDC" think they really need to, but they reason it will be quite effective in limiting spread as this is an age group with a lot of mobility and lots of close contacts.

Good luck. Children’s hospitals in the US are starting to fill up with COVID patients who are too young to be vaccinated or whose parents refused to authorize vaccination, and many US school districts haven’t even started the fall semester yet.

Schools have now been open for almost two months with zero mask wearing. Cases have continued downward and barly and children have been hospitalized. There were a few local outbreaks in the beginning, but they were dealth with on a per-class or per-school basis but that soon calmed down as well. About a month ago kids got self-test kits to test twice a week at home, that is being wound down this week afaik. Vaccinations started down to 12 years of age a few weeks ago, but the limited drama dropped before that got going.

So all in all the school reopening after the holidays went great with hardly any drama to speak of.

So far, since the start of the pandemic, 96 persons under 18 have been hospitalized due to covid (of which 15 during the last 4 weeks) and in total since March last year 15 under 18s have been admitted to the ICU. To my knowledge our "CDC" does not publish death numbers for under 18s, but for under 40s the total during the entire pandemic is 7.

So it's all good.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1093 on: October 12, 2021, 06:21:41 AM »
.
Society will have to learn to live with this virus, maybe for a very long time. Gonna be exiting to see how that will play out where there has been a "zero covid" policy as it will not get to zero once things normalize again. Now its spreading fast among the younger cohorts as was expected when school holiday was over. Around 50% of cases are now 18s or younger and only about 3% aged 60+. It was just decided that 16-18 should be vaccinated here - not because our "CDC" think they really need to, but they reason it will be quite effective in limiting spread as this is an age group with a lot of mobility and lots of close contacts.

Good luck. Children’s hospitals in the US are starting to fill up with COVID patients who are too young to be vaccinated or whose parents refused to authorize vaccination, and many US school districts haven’t even started the fall semester yet.

Schools have now been open for almost two months with zero mask wearing. Cases have continued downward and barly and children have been hospitalized. There were a few local outbreaks in the beginning, but they were dealth with on a per-class or per-school basis but that soon calmed down as well. About a month ago kids got self-test kits to test twice a week at home, that is being wound down this week afaik. Vaccinations started down to 12 years of age a few weeks ago, but the limited drama dropped before that got going.

So all in all the school reopening after the holidays went great with hardly any drama to speak of.

So far, since the start of the pandemic, 96 persons under 18 have been hospitalized due to covid (of which 15 during the last 4 weeks) and in total since March last year 15 under 18s have been admitted to the ICU. To my knowledge our "CDC" does not publish death numbers for under 18s, but for under 40s the total during the entire pandemic is 7.

So it's all good.

7 total deaths under 40 years old?  How could that be?  There are 3 alone in my county...

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1094 on: October 12, 2021, 06:25:52 AM »

7 total deaths under 40 years old?  How could that be?  There are 3 alone in my county...

I live in Norway, that might explain most of it;)

We're a small country (only 5.4 million inhabitants).


nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1095 on: October 12, 2021, 06:37:35 AM »

7 total deaths under 40 years old?  How could that be?  There are 3 alone in my county...

I live in Norway, that might explain most of it;)

We're a small country (only 5.4 million inhabitants).

Interesting how different the disease has impacted various regions and countries.

I live in a state with 1.3 million people, yet we've had 21 deaths of people under 40, or more than 12x as many as what you say Norway has experienced. Half of those deaths have occurred in the last three months alone.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1096 on: October 12, 2021, 06:56:00 AM »
Interesting how different the disease has impacted various regions and countries.

I live in a state with 1.3 million people, yet we've had 21 deaths of people under 40, or more than 12x as many as what you say Norway has experienced. Half of those deaths have occurred in the last three months alone.

It has been pointed out by various commentators that noone really understands why it went relatively well here with - compared to many other places - limited measures, slow start to vaccinations like the rest of Europe, close to zero mask wearing last spring but more this winter with the alpha end delta variants circulating, schools for the youngest (at lest up to grade 7) have stayed open the entire time bar few weeks last spring. Large parts of the country has had very, very limited case count and local outbreaks have been dealt with in a few days. I live in the most populous city, which as expected has been the main "hotspot" but even here its been pretty soft compared to cities of similar size.

Reasons that have been pointed to are among others high level of trust in government, generous welfare programs so you don't have to feel you must go to work if you're sick, very good digital infrastructure facilitating wfh for a lot of staff, very limitied politization of the government's response and despite any personal grunt with this or that part of the approach folks have in general complied to a very high degree. The immigrant population, of which a large part lives in Oslo, the capital, has been much harder hit so if you look at the rest of the population the already mild disease burden has been very low. I don't know the fine print on Finland and Denmark, but the ballpark numbers are in the same are while our neighbour Sweden got to some international fame and has had much higher numbers on all fronts, but they still rank bank in the middle of European countries despite being - rather unfair - viewed as having a laissez-faire approach to the whole pandemic.

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1097 on: October 12, 2021, 07:04:35 AM »
Interesting how different the disease has impacted various regions and countries.

I live in a state with 1.3 million people, yet we've had 21 deaths of people under 40, or more than 12x as many as what you say Norway has experienced. Half of those deaths have occurred in the last three months alone.

It has been pointed out by various commentators that noone really understands why it went relatively well here with - compared to many other places - limited measures, slow start to vaccinations like the rest of Europe, close to zero mask wearing last spring but more this winter with the alpha end delta variants circulating, schools for the youngest (at lest up to grade 7) have stayed open the entire time bar few weeks last spring. Large parts of the country has had very, very limited case count and local outbreaks have been dealt with in a few days. I live in the most populous city, which as expected has been the main "hotspot" but even here its been pretty soft compared to cities of similar size.

Reasons that have been pointed to are among others high level of trust in government, generous welfare programs so you don't have to feel you must go to work if you're sick, very good digital infrastructure facilitating wfh for a lot of staff, very limitied politization of the government's response and despite any personal grunt with this or that part of the approach folks have in general complied to a very high degree. The immigrant population, of which a large part lives in Oslo, the capital, has been much harder hit so if you look at the rest of the population the already mild disease burden has been very low. I don't know the fine print on Finland and Denmark, but the ballpark numbers are in the same are while our neighbour Sweden got to some international fame and has had much higher numbers on all fronts, but they still rank bank in the middle of European countries despite being - rather unfair - viewed as having a laissez-faire approach to the whole pandemic.

That, and Norwegians tend to live further apart from one another, and are far more outdoor people than elsewhere in the world. I remember reading that the distance between Norwegians is further apart than almost anywhere else in the world. Which fits with Oslo's numbers being worse.

I think the measures of social distancing and socializing outdoors only may have just more naturally easy for you folks than others.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1098 on: October 12, 2021, 07:19:06 AM »

That, and Norwegians tend to live further apart from one another, and are far more outdoor people than elsewhere in the world. I remember reading that the distance between Norwegians is further apart than almost anywhere else in the world. Which fits with Oslo's numbers being worse.

I think the measures of social distancing and socializing outdoors only may have just more naturally easy for you folks than others.

Indeed, most communities are - by North American - standards very small. The capital has like 700k and 1.2 mio if you count the greater urban area. The 2nd largest city has like 250k and lots of places have say 3k-10k inhabitants. But as with everything else pandemic it's pretty easy to find counterexamples like say North or South Dakota with much lower population density. So it's obviously an interplay between many factors contributing to the end results with maybe some luck (or lack thereof) thrown in as well.



Metalcat

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1099 on: October 12, 2021, 07:30:50 AM »

That, and Norwegians tend to live further apart from one another, and are far more outdoor people than elsewhere in the world. I remember reading that the distance between Norwegians is further apart than almost anywhere else in the world. Which fits with Oslo's numbers being worse.

I think the measures of social distancing and socializing outdoors only may have just more naturally easy for you folks than others.

Indeed, most communities are - by North American - standards very small. The capital has like 700k and 1.2 mio if you count the greater urban area. The 2nd largest city has like 250k and lots of places have say 3k-10k inhabitants. But as with everything else pandemic it's pretty easy to find counterexamples like say North or South Dakota with much lower population density. So it's obviously an interplay between many factors contributing to the end results with maybe some luck (or lack thereof) thrown in as well.

Oh for sure, I wouldn't assume population density alone was a deciding factor, I was adding it to your previous points. A lot of people reading might not know that Norway has certain distinctive characteristics, even compared to other Nordic countries, such as the natural inclination of Norwegians to spread out and have space between themselves, and to socialize outdoors.

Low population density doesn't mean much for disease spread if the people living far apart tend to congregate in large groups indoors.

 

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