Author Topic: Coronavirus preparedness  (Read 120960 times)

former player

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #100 on: February 24, 2020, 06:55:37 PM »
I never said it is spreading in the US at this point. I am saying it most likely WILL be soon.  And that official statement pointedly says nothing about the future.

And for the umpteenth time - I'm not concerned about the virus - even though it may be bad-ish - but about the consequences of quarantine and other ill-advised containment issues.
Thatís the whole problem. If doesnít particularly matter whether you care or not. The problem is your sensationalizing if it - that others might.
I don't understand why people are saying that frugaldrummer is sensationalising.  All I'm seeing, after their first post, is a large number of replies to others putting forward a range of potential figures which appear to be within the realms of possibility.  Is there any evidence that anyone reading this thread has been panicking as a result?


LWYRUP

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #101 on: February 24, 2020, 06:55:52 PM »
I don't think it's helpful to accuse people of "inciting panic" for making reasoned predictions that are more pessimistic than your reasoned predictions.

Part of the issue with this whole situation is it was downplayed for a long while and so now many people don't know what to believe.  That strategy is risky.  I'd prefer to know the possible (but reasonable) worst case so I won't be caught totally unprepared if there's an issue.

Sibley

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #102 on: February 24, 2020, 07:03:17 PM »
Quote
Ok. Frugaldrummer, here's an article that does a pretty good job of communicating that this virus is going to spread, there's a pretty good chance that lots of people will get it, but we don't really need to panic. No, it's not a scientific article. Are the numbers exactly right? I'm sure they're not. But I do know that it's an example of decent communication about something that is scaring people silly right now. You might take some lessons from it, before you face IRL consequences for inciting panic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

Sibley - I don't see how you think that article was more calming that what I said. The article says 40-70% of the world population could get this (!) - a much higher number than the 20 to possibly worst case 30% numbers I was using. The article says, as I have said, that quarantine and containment efforts are likely to do more harm at this point and that the virus is not likely to be contained. I've already said 90% of cases will probably be mild or asymptomatic (the article gives no estimate).  And I've used an excellent scientific report with all kinds of wonky sophisticated math which estimated the 0.3-0.6% fatality rate which I have been using (with an awareness that if higher than 20% infection rate occurs, or if the actual infection fatality rate is higher, the number of deaths could be higher).

Just because there's more fluffy writing in between those facts doesn't mean that article isn't actually MORE terrifying than what I've been saying. In fact, that article is rather reckless in using that 40-70% infection rate quote from Lipsitch as I haven't seen that kind of high estimate anywhere else and no numbers to back that up.

I give up. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink. And before you write anything intended for a larger audience than a semi-obscure forum, please figure out how to write without making it seem like the world is going to end.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #103 on: February 24, 2020, 07:21:56 PM »
Well let's see if the CDC put it in nicer terms 3 days ago:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/cdc-warns-community-covid-19-spread-could-take-place-us

"Today officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned that although the agency is taking historic measures to slow the introduction of COVID-19 into the United States, the country should prepare for the possibility of community spread, as seen in China and neighboring Asian countries.

"The day may come when we may need to implement such measures as seen in Asia," Nancy Messonnier, MD, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a press conference, referencing the closing of businesses, schools, and churches in multiple countries where transmission is now occurring within the community."

Pretty much what I've been saying, that we need to prepare for the possibility of quarantine. Don't see how giving numbers and statistics based on science to back it up makes what I've been saying any scarier than this CDC statement.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #104 on: February 24, 2020, 07:25:15 PM »
Quote
The fatality rate mentioned above is much lower than what I had read elsewhere.

We are talking about two different rates. The two percent number is the fatality rate among people hospitalized with the disease. That number has been holding somewhat steady.  That number however doesn't take into account all the people who are mild cases (or asymptomatic) and never get admitted to the hospital.  The 0.3 - 0.6% number is an estimate of what percentage of total people infected would die.

I checked the study, and it specifically refers to mild cases and asymptomatic (yet testing positive) as being part of the study in calculating the 2.3% fatality rate.

CrustyBadger

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #105 on: February 24, 2020, 07:38:31 PM »

An important point which you seem to keep overlooking is how far out in front we are of this compared to other, previous and more deadly epidemics. People are commenting about how testing kits are in short supply in some areas - five weeks ago the world was just learning aboutt try its spread - three weeks ago we sequenced it, and less than two weeks ago we developed the real time detection assay. We have never had a response this quickly before for any virus.

What I object to is the CDC specifically saying that there is no community spread in the US, when what they should be saying is "We have not done testing on it, so we don't have any idea whether there is community spread or not."

The only reason Italy, Iran and South Korea know that they have community spread is that they are doing thousands of tests a day.  Italy I know said they did 2000 tests in one day. 

Somehow they are able to test 2000 people in one day, but we are only capable of testing an average of 6?  Maybe the CDC has some strategy they aren't sharing with the public.  But I think a lot of people here in the US believe that the CDC has been screening and testing, and that so far the virus "isn't here yet".  I believe that is very unlikely to be true.  In fact it defies logic.

Scotland2016

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #106 on: February 24, 2020, 07:47:04 PM »
If one is practical but reasonable, how many weeks of food would be prudent to have on hand?

Fru-Gal

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #107 on: February 24, 2020, 08:14:17 PM »
2-4 weeks of non-perishable staples
plus, anything that you typically *must* live with but is a drag to buy when it runs out, you might want to have extra
I've never been a prepper but as my budgeting and home cooking has increased, am starting to buy more bulk ingredients -- my humans will eat through any bulk processed food immediately as a personal challenge*, which is why I can't shop at Costco

*one child survived the sodium overload of eating a 12 pack of ramen in a day, so I learned never to buy that again (anyway ramen isn't food)

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #108 on: February 24, 2020, 08:29:35 PM »
Lol on the ramen story

Quote
I checked the study, and it specifically refers to mild cases and asymptomatic (yet testing positive) as being part of the study in calculating the 2.3% fatality rate.

AmericanGenX:  this was in China where only people sick enough to be seen at the hospital and looking high risk were being tested. Most mild cases stayed home.

If the fatality rate were really 2% of all infected people we should see more deaths in infected evacuees.

However, the worrisome numbers in this report have to do with the medical staff, which I discussed in a previous post. 5 out of 1716 infected healthcare workers died. This number is not maxed out because it can take 2-4 weeks or more from diagnosis to death, so presumably more deaths will occur in the most recently diagnosed. 5/1716 is 0.3% fatality rate. Another 5 or 10 might conceivably die before that cohort is all a month out from diagnosis, which would give a fatality rate more like 0.6 or 0.9% as I commented previously. This group is much more likely to have been tested for even mild disease. And they are likely a healthier cohort to begin with (younger, capable of working hard). So this data would suggest the possibility of a fatality rate per infected person of greater than 0.3% - possibly up to as much as  1%.

Merlion

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #109 on: February 24, 2020, 08:31:45 PM »
I never said it is spreading in the US at this point. I am saying it most likely WILL be soon.  And that official statement pointedly says nothing about the future.

And for the umpteenth time - I'm not concerned about the virus - even though it may be bad-ish - but about the consequences of quarantine and other ill-advised containment issues.
Thatís the whole problem. If doesnít particularly matter whether you care or not. The problem is your sensationalizing if it - that others might.
I don't understand why people are saying that frugaldrummer is sensationalising.  All I'm seeing, after their first post, is a large number of replies to others putting forward a range of potential figures which appear to be within the realms of possibility.  Is there any evidence that anyone reading this thread has been panicking as a result?

Agreed, but maybe because it has seemed pretty in line with what I've been reading over the last month paying attention to a number of virologists and epidemiologists. My in-laws have been sitting in their apartment in a random city in China for the last month, occasionally venturing out for groceries but not really anything else. If they were in Wuhan they wouldn't even be doing that.

No, it is not the end of the world (which is great!). Can you imagine what would be happening if this disease had a fatality rate of 30-50% like MERS? It's not likely to impact you too badly if you're in your 40s or younger and are in decently good health. However, if you are older or have some sort of medical condition, or if you have loved ones who fit into those categories, you should be paying very close attention and maybe making some preparations in case things worsen. Stock up on some prescription medications if you have any, stock up on some bulk groceries.

Prepare, don't panic.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #110 on: February 24, 2020, 08:39:34 PM »
Exactly!

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #111 on: February 25, 2020, 04:10:20 AM »
Disasters happen quickly and completely. By the time any warning filters through to the masses, it's too late. That applies to economic collapse, pandemic, natural disasters, civil unrest, anything. You can see already that some medical supplies like masks haven't been available to the public for some time. You need to be prepared for these possibilities before hand. Of course, it's a matter of how far you want to take that preparedness, and how much anxiety you want to indulge in. I know what it's like to queue for hours for petrol while blokes in uniforms keep order, and what it's like to buy rationed supplies at a supermarket. I would rather be the person with supplies on hand than not.

(Full disclosure: 9 years ago my city was destroyed in a quake, and we're still rebuilding. Consequently, I might be a tad hyper vigilant when is comes to disaster risk.)

cowpuncher10

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #112 on: February 25, 2020, 05:49:44 AM »
People are thinking about the Coronavirus all wrong. People shouldn't be worried about contracting it and dying a month from now. People should be worried that it becomes as pervasive as the common cold or the flu. That is the REAL risk. We have no idea whether or not it will become more prevalent during certain seasons such as the common cold or flu either....Fingers crossed it can be stamped out but at this point in time it spreading globally seems like more of a when as opposed to an if.

red_pill

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #113 on: February 25, 2020, 07:39:19 AM »
People are extraordinarily bad at predicting future outcomes, particularly when that future is substantially different from the present.  Our psyches are heavily biased towards the status quo it seems. So one must assume that if the coronavirus will end up being significant, we will be unlikely to actually see it coming.  It is psychologically very difficult to ask ďgiven what we see today, what is the likely outcome two years from now?Ē if that outcome is substantially different than today.

One way to bypass this cognitive bias is to do a thought experiment that starts with the outcome and then work backwards to present day.  So, ďCoronavirus became a global pandemic and killed 30M people worldwide. What would it have looked like in the early days?Ē The answer to that, in my view, is it would look like exactly what we are seeing.  Iím not saying 30M is the guaranteed outcome, but it certainly is within the set of possible outcomes. The probability of that is definitely non zero.   (Btw, 30M is just world population 7.7B x 20% infection rate x 2% mortality rate.)

Of course I would expect most people to not be able to wrap their heads around a potential outcome such as that.  It would be a total black swan event and completely divorced from anything in recent memory.  Come on, we all know most people canít even plan for their retirement, which they KNOW is going to happen...so I put very little weight on the ďconsensusĒ that this will all just go away. It might not.

So, yeah, I could totally see this as being a really big deal. And if there are some preparations I can make then why not?  I think people dead set against reasonable preparation are really just looking to reinforce their denial of a possible negative outcome. And all I have to do is be just a smidge ahead of the curve of most people and my chances of surviving and thriving go up substantially!

Iím with you, @frugaldrummer.


« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 08:26:40 AM by red_pill »

Cranky

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #114 on: February 25, 2020, 08:08:03 AM »
I don't feel any *panic* about this, but I know that a really bad flu season can be disruptive, and I find having some plans in place to be reassuring on just about any occasion.

If I had young kids, I'd want to have some ideas about what I'd do if the schools close for a couple of weeks, for instance.

One winter, we had a series of ice storms and didn't leave the house for a full two weeks, and we were fine, so that's the level of planning that I do for winter.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #115 on: February 25, 2020, 08:13:36 AM »
I sure hope this won't be as bad as Y2K was.

Boofinator

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #116 on: February 25, 2020, 08:25:05 AM »
Enjoying this thread. I really don't understand for the life of me those denigrating frugaldrummer for inciting panic, when instead all I see are reasonable facts. (And yes, most laypeople know of it as the Spanish Flu, and in fact that's the title of the Wikipedia article (the arbiter of truth; J/K), so I don't think it's entirely out of line for a historical (no longer propagating) disease.)

As far as preparedness: As a healthy person, I don't see much that I might have to prepare for. Natural disasters result in supply chain failures, but I don't think this disease would result in that for necessary staples like food and running water (because the symptoms of a supply chain failure are much worse than those of the disease itself, and the only resources which would be affected is a rather low percentage of human labor).

Anyway, enough prognosticating. Keep up the flaming!!

Kris

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #117 on: February 25, 2020, 08:31:25 AM »
So, Iím not particularly concerned about coronavirus yet, though I could be wrong. But.... those of you who lean away from providing health insurance for all, think about the implications of large numbers of our population not being financially able to seek health care when they have a communicable disease.

Be selfish if you must. But recognize your selfishness might come back to bite you.

beltim

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #118 on: February 25, 2020, 08:39:54 AM »
I sure hope this won't be as bad as Y2K was.

How many people did Y2K kill?

StarBright

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #119 on: February 25, 2020, 08:44:10 AM »
I don't feel any *panic* about this, but I know that a really bad flu season can be disruptive, and I find having some plans in place to be reassuring on just about any occasion.

If I had young kids, I'd want to have some ideas about what I'd do if the schools close for a couple of weeks, for instance.

One winter, we had a series of ice storms and didn't leave the house for a full two weeks, and we were fine, so that's the level of planning that I do for winter.

^ I went through a similar ice storm issue almost a decade ago and didn't have food in my house. We were borrowing food and water from neighbors. So now I evaluate our stock every now and then and when it is quite low and there is flu or weather potential (or toxic algae in the summer), I buy a little extra.

Imma

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #120 on: February 25, 2020, 08:51:11 AM »
Enjoying this thread. I really don't understand for the life of me those denigrating frugaldrummer for inciting panic, when instead all I see are reasonable facts. (And yes, most laypeople know of it as the Spanish Flu, and in fact that's the title of the Wikipedia article (the arbiter of truth; J/K), so I don't think it's entirely out of line for a historical (no longer propagating) disease.)

As far as preparedness: As a healthy person, I don't see much that I might have to prepare for. Natural disasters result in supply chain failures, but I don't think this disease would result in that for necessary staples like food and running water (because the symptoms of a supply chain failure are much worse than those of the disease itself, and the only resources which would be affected is a rather low percentage of human labor).

Anyway, enough prognosticating. Keep up the flaming!!

I would absolutely consider supply chain issues for food a realistic possibly in case there would be a pandemic. The shops are empty whenever we get a few inches of snow or there's a 1 day strike. I'm sure that if 20% of truck drivers called in sick on a given day, there would be empty shelves in the supermarkets the next day. Now imagine a conservative 10% illness rate over a longer period of time. I'm not saying it will happen but it could, in case of a pandemic. I don't expect major disruption of water and electricity though. That's indeed more common for natural disasters.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #121 on: February 25, 2020, 08:53:32 AM »
I agree with Kris, our fatality rate might suffer from people without insurance or with large copays hesitating to come to the hospital when sick.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 09:03:08 AM by frugaldrummer »

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #122 on: February 25, 2020, 08:57:37 AM »
I sure hope this won't be as bad as Y2K was.

How many people did Y2K kill?

Directly?  None.  There were a few suicides related to the whole Y2K reporting frenzy though.

hops

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #123 on: February 25, 2020, 09:01:13 AM »
So, Iím not particularly concerned about coronavirus yet, though I could be wrong. But.... those of you who lean away from providing health insurance for all, think about the implications of large numbers of our population not being financially able to seek health care when they have a communicable disease.

Be selfish if you must. But recognize your selfishness might come back to bite you.

Related reading:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html

cowpuncher10

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #124 on: February 25, 2020, 09:12:44 AM »
So, Iím not particularly concerned about coronavirus yet, though I could be wrong. But.... those of you who lean away from providing health insurance for all, think about the implications of large numbers of our population not being financially able to seek health care when they have a communicable disease.

Be selfish if you must. But recognize your selfishness might come back to bite you.

This is ridiculous. They walk into an emergency room at a public hospital and will receive care regardless fo whether or not they have health insurance. People need to stop spreading this lie.

slappy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #125 on: February 25, 2020, 09:26:05 AM »
So, Iím not particularly concerned about coronavirus yet, though I could be wrong. But.... those of you who lean away from providing health insurance for all, think about the implications of large numbers of our population not being financially able to seek health care when they have a communicable disease.

Be selfish if you must. But recognize your selfishness might come back to bite you.

This is ridiculous. They walk into an emergency room at a public hospital and will receive care regardless fo whether or not they have health insurance. People need to stop spreading this lie.


Yeah I kind of agree here. In my experience, people without health insurance are not going without care. They go the ER and get care, they just don't pay for it. It's kind of a vicious cycle from what I understand. They don't pay for care, which raises the prices for everyone else. Now I'm not sure how many CAN'T pay compared to how many just DON'T pay. I have personally seen people say they go the ER for whatever illness they have, and they have no intention of paying. Which of course, puts a bunch of people in the ER with communicable diseases, but that don't actually need to be there. So that further spreads those diseases. Clearly, there's a lot more to examine than just, "people won't get care because they can't afford it".

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #126 on: February 25, 2020, 09:31:19 AM »
So, Iím not particularly concerned about coronavirus yet, though I could be wrong. But.... those of you who lean away from providing health insurance for all, think about the implications of large numbers of our population not being financially able to seek health care when they have a communicable disease.

Be selfish if you must. But recognize your selfishness might come back to bite you.

This is ridiculous. They walk into an emergency room at a public hospital and will receive care regardless fo whether or not they have health insurance. People need to stop spreading this lie.


Yeah I kind of agree here. In my experience, people without health insurance are not going without care. They go the ER and get care, they just don't pay for it. It's kind of a vicious cycle from what I understand. They don't pay for care, which raises the prices for everyone else. Now I'm not sure how many CAN'T pay compared to how many just DON'T pay. I have personally seen people say they go the ER for whatever illness they have, and they have no intention of paying. Which of course, puts a bunch of people in the ER with communicable diseases, but that don't actually need to be there. So that further spreads those diseases. Clearly, there's a lot more to examine than just, "people won't get care because they can't afford it".

Since we're interested in not spreading misinformation: they will receive stabilizing care. The ER is under no obligation to provide life-saving care to a patient who can't pay. Additionally, many ERs are staffed by contractors, and those private agencies may sue for payment: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/19/798894062/its-not-just-hospitals-that-are-quick-to-sue-patients-who-cant-pay

So no, it isn't that simple. The system is broken. No one truly benefits except those who profit at medical centers and insurance companies.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #127 on: February 25, 2020, 09:46:51 AM »
So, Iím not particularly concerned about coronavirus yet, though I could be wrong. But.... those of you who lean away from providing health insurance for all, think about the implications of large numbers of our population not being financially able to seek health care when they have a communicable disease.

Be selfish if you must. But recognize your selfishness might come back to bite you.

This is ridiculous. They walk into an emergency room at a public hospital and will receive care regardless fo whether or not they have health insurance. People need to stop spreading this lie.


Yeah I kind of agree here. In my experience, people without health insurance are not going without care. They go the ER and get care, they just don't pay for it. It's kind of a vicious cycle from what I understand. They don't pay for care, which raises the prices for everyone else. Now I'm not sure how many CAN'T pay compared to how many just DON'T pay. I have personally seen people say they go the ER for whatever illness they have, and they have no intention of paying. Which of course, puts a bunch of people in the ER with communicable diseases, but that don't actually need to be there. So that further spreads those diseases. Clearly, there's a lot more to examine than just, "people won't get care because they can't afford it".

I don't buy this argument.  If this is as rosy a picture as you're painting, then why would anyone in their right mind pay for medical care that they could get for free?

StarBright

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #128 on: February 25, 2020, 10:02:25 AM »
So, Iím not particularly concerned about coronavirus yet, though I could be wrong. But.... those of you who lean away from providing health insurance for all, think about the implications of large numbers of our population not being financially able to seek health care when they have a communicable disease.

Be selfish if you must. But recognize your selfishness might come back to bite you.

This is ridiculous. They walk into an emergency room at a public hospital and will receive care regardless fo whether or not they have health insurance. People need to stop spreading this lie.


Yeah I kind of agree here. In my experience, people without health insurance are not going without care. They go the ER and get care, they just don't pay for it. It's kind of a vicious cycle from what I understand. They don't pay for care, which raises the prices for everyone else. Now I'm not sure how many CAN'T pay compared to how many just DON'T pay. I have personally seen people say they go the ER for whatever illness they have, and they have no intention of paying. Which of course, puts a bunch of people in the ER with communicable diseases, but that don't actually need to be there. So that further spreads those diseases. Clearly, there's a lot more to examine than just, "people won't get care because they can't afford it".

I suspect the other people avoiding emergency rooms the most are actually people who have high deductible insurance. We are those people. We've had a couple of situations where a trip to a walk in clinic have ended up with them sending us to the emergency room for something that ultimately was not a real emergency. Each trip cost us thousands of dollars.

We have definitely taken a "wait and see" approach on a couple of things lately  (heart burn or heart attack?) because you feel like a sucker paying 4k for what is ultimately a headache. And we've found around here that any walk in clinic or nurses line is just going to send you to the ER over anything that isn't clear cut and obvious so we have tended to start avoiding those too.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 02:55:52 PM by StarBright »

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #129 on: February 25, 2020, 10:03:22 AM »
So, Iím not particularly concerned about coronavirus yet, though I could be wrong. But.... those of you who lean away from providing health insurance for all, think about the implications of large numbers of our population not being financially able to seek health care when they have a communicable disease.

Be selfish if you must. But recognize your selfishness might come back to bite you.

This is ridiculous. They walk into an emergency room at a public hospital and will receive care regardless fo whether or not they have health insurance. People need to stop spreading this lie.


Yeah I kind of agree here. In my experience, people without health insurance are not going without care. They go the ER and get care, they just don't pay for it. It's kind of a vicious cycle from what I understand. They don't pay for care, which raises the prices for everyone else. Now I'm not sure how many CAN'T pay compared to how many just DON'T pay. I have personally seen people say they go the ER for whatever illness they have, and they have no intention of paying. Which of course, puts a bunch of people in the ER with communicable diseases, but that don't actually need to be there. So that further spreads those diseases. Clearly, there's a lot more to examine than just, "people won't get care because they can't afford it".

I don't buy this argument.  If this is as rosy a picture as you're painting, then why would anyone in their right mind pay for medical care that they could get for free?

I mean, you technically don't have to pay for anything... you could always just try to steal or you could also put it on a credit card and then never pay for it, right?  People pay for their medical care because there financial are consequences if they don't.

slappy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #130 on: February 25, 2020, 10:03:55 AM »
So, Iím not particularly concerned about coronavirus yet, though I could be wrong. But.... those of you who lean away from providing health insurance for all, think about the implications of large numbers of our population not being financially able to seek health care when they have a communicable disease.

Be selfish if you must. But recognize your selfishness might come back to bite you.


This is ridiculous. They walk into an emergency room at a public hospital and will receive care regardless fo whether or not they have health insurance. People need to stop spreading this lie.


Yeah I kind of agree here. In my experience, people without health insurance are not going without care. They go the ER and get care, they just don't pay for it. It's kind of a vicious cycle from what I understand. They don't pay for care, which raises the prices for everyone else. Now I'm not sure how many CAN'T pay compared to how many just DON'T pay. I have personally seen people say they go the ER for whatever illness they have, and they have no intention of paying. Which of course, puts a bunch of people in the ER with communicable diseases, but that don't actually need to be there. So that further spreads those diseases. Clearly, there's a lot more to examine than just, "people won't get care because they can't afford it".

I don't buy this argument.  If this is as rosy a picture as you're painting, then why would anyone in their right mind pay for medical care that they could get for free?

Right, it's not that simple. I'm certainly not trying to paint a rosy picture. I have personally heard people say that they will go to the ER for any little thing with no intention of paying the bill. I'm not saying that all uninsured people do this. There will always be a small portion of the population who do things like this. Unfortunately, due to my line of work, I came into contact with a lot of them. So my experience is skewed that direction.

With regard to why people would pay for care that they could get for free. I guess i figure most of the care I get wouldn't really be free, and if it was, it might not be the quality I want. For example, preventative care would not be administered in an ER (that I am aware of). Ongoing care for a chronic illness. Those kinds of things are things that uninsured people don't have access too, and in my opinion (as uneducated as it may be) that's the real suffering of those folks. Preventative care and early detection of diseases makes a huge difference.

Merlion

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #131 on: February 25, 2020, 10:15:35 AM »
So, Iím not particularly concerned about coronavirus yet, though I could be wrong. But.... those of you who lean away from providing health insurance for all, think about the implications of large numbers of our population not being financially able to seek health care when they have a communicable disease.

Be selfish if you must. But recognize your selfishness might come back to bite you.

This is ridiculous. They walk into an emergency room at a public hospital and will receive care regardless fo whether or not they have health insurance. People need to stop spreading this lie.

Huh? This is a bit tangential to the topic at hand, but the large number of people without health insurance or with very high deductible health insurance absolutely matters in an outbreak. They will wait to seek care longer until symptoms worsen significantly, spreading infection to more people. Maybe next to you on the subway, in line at the pharmacy or grocery store, or delivering your amazon packages.

Also, emergency rooms have to provide stabilizing care, but no more.

Peony

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #132 on: February 25, 2020, 10:29:38 AM »
Count me as one who has deliberately avoided the emergency room because I've been fearful of the huge bill. I have scars on my face from an injury that should have probably received stitches, but my anxiety about an ER bill kept me from getting that care.

cowpuncher10

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #133 on: February 25, 2020, 11:03:39 AM »
Jesus Christ. The whole point about the insurance comment was that people without insurance CAN'T get care. That is flat out false. Having health insurance and not seeking care to save for costs is something else entirely.

dougules

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #134 on: February 25, 2020, 11:13:14 AM »
How will emergency rooms keep themselves from being places where people just share the disease?  I had to take DH into the emergency room for some complications from surgery one time, and I came away from it with a bad cold. 

StashingAway

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #135 on: February 25, 2020, 11:15:59 AM »
One way to bypass this cognitive bias is to do a thought experiment that starts with the outcome and then work backwards to present day.  So, ďCoronavirus became a global pandemic and killed 30M people worldwide. What would it have looked like in the early days?Ē The answer to that, in my view, is it would look like exactly what we are seeing.  Iím not saying 30M is the guaranteed outcome, but it certainly is within the set of possible outcomes. The probability of that is definitely non zero.   (Btw, 30M is just world population 7.7B x 20% infection rate x 2% mortality rate.)


So now do that thought experiment on if it peters out to nothing? What would it look like? Exactly as it does today, with global instant communication and preventative measures causing conspiracy theorists to run wild with doomsday predictions only to be proven wrong by time. You wrote a paragraph about humans being bad at long term predictions, then proceed to make a long term prediction!

Cranky

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #136 on: February 25, 2020, 11:42:38 AM »
How will emergency rooms keep themselves from being places where people just share the disease?  I had to take DH into the emergency room for some complications from surgery one time, and I came away from it with a bad cold.

Heck, I went to my PCP's office last week, and really felt like I should have just backed out. It was packed.

red_pill

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #137 on: February 25, 2020, 11:58:20 AM »
One way to bypass this cognitive bias is to do a thought experiment that starts with the outcome and then work backwards to present day.  So, ďCoronavirus became a global pandemic and killed 30M people worldwide. What would it have looked like in the early days?Ē The answer to that, in my view, is it would look like exactly what we are seeing.  Iím not saying 30M is the guaranteed outcome, but it certainly is within the set of possible outcomes. The probability of that is definitely non zero.   (Btw, 30M is just world population 7.7B x 20% infection rate x 2% mortality rate.)


So now do that thought experiment on if it peters out to nothing? What would it look like? Exactly as it does today, with global instant communication and preventative measures causing conspiracy theorists to run wild with doomsday predictions only to be proven wrong by time. You wrote a paragraph about humans being bad at long term predictions, then proceed to make a long term prediction!

The challenge is making a prediction that goes against the status quo.   But at some point one has to attempt to make a prediction with the best available information and act.   There is always a risk of error, but the choice is if you want to make a type I or type II error in this case.

We have a disease that is 40x more deadly than the flu, has an incubation period of two to three weeks, and can spread when people are asymptotic.  That it only has a 2 or 3% mortality rate makes it way more dangerous than if it were higher...that means more mild cases that go around spreading it.  We have it starting in a totalitarian state that actively suppresses information (well, now two states if you count Iran. Maybe three depending on what is happening in North Korea). Indonesia says they donít have it because of the ďpower of prayerĒ (I think that was from their health minister).  Iíd say that is a pretty good recipe for this to start getting really weird.

Panic on a societal level is not a good strategy. But individually it can be a very good strategy. If I hoard food and no one else does, I win.  If everyone tries to, then everyone loses.  Thatís why the govt goes so far to quell panic. But it doesnít always pay to listen to it.

Like you said, time will probably prove me wrong. In which case I eat my stored food and use up my Lysol wipes.  No biggie.  Itís not like Iím in the backyard digging up a bunker.  And then I use my cash reserves to buy into a dipped stock market. :)

I really hope Iím wrong. But Iíd give it pretty good odds that Iím not.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #138 on: February 25, 2020, 12:10:40 PM »
Quote
And then I use my cash reserves to buy into a dipped stock market. :)

Yes. I posted about this a couple of weeks ago on another thread.

As for supplies - I'm not buying anything that won't get used up. Actually saving money in the long run by buying more bulk items than usual.

As for the health care question - it is absolutely true that so many people today have high deductible plans such that many people put off going to the doctor or especially hospital when they should go. Especially if your pay has been cut because hours have been reduced during a slowdown, many people are going to try to stick it out at home who maybe need to be hospitalized. This may increase our fatality rate over countries where that's not a consideration.  Uninsured people without primary care doctors will also likely clog emergency rooms (not as much of an issue in states that have expanded medicaid, btw, which helped somewhat with this).  And if we are in the middle of epidemic spread in a community, hospital waiting rooms will become possible places of spread, so good handwashing and a mask are great ideas if you're waiting in the ER waiting room for any reason.  A good relationship with your primary care provider may help you avoid unnecessary trips to the ER for some things.

beltim

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #139 on: February 25, 2020, 12:25:04 PM »
I sure hope this won't be as bad as Y2K was.

How many people did Y2K kill?

Directly?  None.  There were a few suicides related to the whole Y2K reporting frenzy though.

So maybe donít be so insensitive to the few thousand people who have already died from this, and the tens of thousands grieving for them?

Or, you know, make snarky comments. Itís up to you how you want people to perceive you.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #140 on: February 25, 2020, 12:30:01 PM »
I sure hope this won't be as bad as Y2K was.

How many people did Y2K kill?

Directly?  None.  There were a few suicides related to the whole Y2K reporting frenzy though.

So maybe donít be so insensitive to the few thousand people who have already died from this, and the tens of thousands grieving for them?

Or, you know, make snarky comments. Itís up to you how you want people to perceive you.

Hopefully it's not as bad as SARS?

beltim

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #141 on: February 25, 2020, 12:35:49 PM »
I sure hope this won't be as bad as Y2K was.

How many people did Y2K kill?

Directly?  None.  There were a few suicides related to the whole Y2K reporting frenzy though.

So maybe donít be so insensitive to the few thousand people who have already died from this, and the tens of thousands grieving for them?

Or, you know, make snarky comments. Itís up to you how you want people to perceive you.

Hopefully it's not as bad as SARS?

That ship sailed two weeks ago.

SotI

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #142 on: February 25, 2020, 01:49:42 PM »
Personally speaking, I am not overly concerned about the virus as such. However, I do have elderly relatives who may suffer if the virus starts spreading widely. Not much that can be done, thiugh, other than standard hygiene.

Still, my main risk mitigation is addressing potential shortages due to disruption of the supply chain. I am well stocked on groceries, meds and household stuff, in case local authorities will implement quarantine zones like in Northern Italy (which is a day's travel from here).

I am not losing anything by preparing what I can, incl avoiding exposure to crowds and minimizing travel. I have no particular trust in the ability of my country's crisis management, so I will use common sense, mostly. As for the rest ... que sera, sera

Jtrey17

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #143 on: February 25, 2020, 01:55:19 PM »
Jesus Christ. The whole point about the insurance comment was that people without insurance CAN'T get care. That is flat out false. Having health insurance and not seeking care to save for costs is something else entirely.
+1 billion

Kris

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #144 on: February 25, 2020, 02:12:54 PM »
So, Iím not particularly concerned about coronavirus yet, though I could be wrong. But.... those of you who lean away from providing health insurance for all, think about the implications of large numbers of our population not being financially able to seek health care when they have a communicable disease.

Be selfish if you must. But recognize your selfishness might come back to bite you.

This is ridiculous. They walk into an emergency room at a public hospital and will receive care regardless fo whether or not they have health insurance. People need to stop spreading this lie.

Sure. People who suspect they *might* be sick, but who don't have insurance, are gonna immediately go to the emergency room, wait 6 hours to be tested to make sure they are quarantined if necessary before they get *too* sick -- because they're gonna be completely confident they'll never have to pay a resulting exorbitant emergency bill that will dog them for years.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 02:14:29 PM by Kris »

spartana

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #145 on: February 25, 2020, 02:47:09 PM »
I'm not doing anything special - nothing I haven't already done to prepare for the Zombie Apocylypse or riding out a big financial downturn.  However I am not doing anything that involves large crowds or using public transit or overseas travel or going anywhere that I will likely face a quarantine situation outside my home. Although I still do car travel in the US but camp.

Imma

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #146 on: February 25, 2020, 03:03:38 PM »
I'm not doing anything special - nothing I haven't already done to prepare for the Zombie Apocylypse or riding out a big financial downturn.  However I am not doing anything that involves large crowds or using public transit or overseas travel or going anywhere that I will likely face a quarantine situation outside my home. Although I still do car travel in the US but camp.

I wouldn't be so worried either if I were FI - camping and car travel doesn't sound like a major risk especially if you are driving away from civilization instead of towards it. And you have the freedom to stay around the house for a while.

What worries me is that through my job I am in public transit every day and I travel to and from some of the most major train stations in the country, where international trains arrive, close to airports. Now the virus has spread to the ski towns in Austria and Italy, I am becoming concerned about all those people skiing there this week during the school holidays who could sit next to me in the train next week.

I have a weak immune system. I know corona would be very dangerous to me (as is the flu, that's why I get flu shots). I can work from home if the situation gets any worse but I'm buying some extra groceries every time I go shopping now, so I wouldn't have to leave the house that often. Nothing insane (Ä8 this week) and nothing we don't use. That's all I can do.

Re: disruption of the supply chain, several large sellers of consumer goods in my country announced today they are expecting shortages soon. One has raised prices and cancelled marketing campaigns to make sure stock lasts. One company mostly sells plastic made in China stuff that shouldn't even exist, the other two sell stuff like kitchen/household appliances and washing machines.

cowpuncher10

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #147 on: February 25, 2020, 03:13:35 PM »
So, Iím not particularly concerned about coronavirus yet, though I could be wrong. But.... those of you who lean away from providing health insurance for all, think about the implications of large numbers of our population not being financially able to seek health care when they have a communicable disease.

Be selfish if you must. But recognize your selfishness might come back to bite you.

This is ridiculous. They walk into an emergency room at a public hospital and will receive care regardless fo whether or not they have health insurance. People need to stop spreading this lie.

Sure. People who suspect they *might* be sick, but who don't have insurance, are gonna immediately go to the emergency room, wait 6 hours to be tested to make sure they are quarantined if necessary before they get *too* sick -- because they're gonna be completely confident they'll never have to pay a resulting exorbitant emergency bill that will dog them for years.

THOSE PEOPLE ALREADY DO THIS!!! Holy guacamole

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #148 on: February 25, 2020, 03:22:24 PM »
Quote
Hopefully it's not as bad as SARS?

Both better and worse than SARS. Better because SARS had a 10% fatality rate; CoVID 19 has a case fatality rate (rate among identified sick people) of about 2 % and an overall fatality rate (among everyone who gets it, even mild cases) more likely in the 0.3-0.6% range.

HOWEVER, precisely because there are many mild or asymptomatic cases that are still infectious, CoVID 19 will kill many many more people than SARS and it will be pretty much impossible to stop the spread of CoVID 19.


CrustyBadger

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #149 on: February 25, 2020, 03:25:14 PM »
I think the bigger concern in accessing hospital care during the peak of a pandemic isn't how people will be able to afford it.

It's having any access at all.  Hospitals do not have a large surge capacity.  There are only a certain number of ventilators, and a certain number of people trained to use them. 

This is a known problem.  It's the reason people in public health talk about "non pharmaceutical interventions" and community mitigation strategies, to slow down the spread of the illness so all cases don't come at the same time.  It is called "flattening the curve of the outbreak.

The CDC talked a little bit about these NPIs today - things like closing schools, telework, avoiding crowds.  Even though COVID19 isn't supposed to be terribly severe among children, shutting schools down is a great way to slow spread in a community which is why it will be considered.  It's why schools are shut down now in China and other countries experiencing an outbreak.



« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 04:19:40 PM by CrustyBadger »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!