Ok so I have new info to add to my case and will also add it in the original post - THANKS again to all who have commented... this is a great community of generous people (who are also savers)
I spent time with my HR folks today to learn what my pension would be if I left before full retirement. Turns out it's actually simpler than I thought, especially since I'm not former military. It's basically the average of my top three highest salaries (currently that number is $158,200) times the number of years of service as a percentage (if I leave next year that will be 21 years). So 158200 * .21 = $33,222 annually, or $2769 monthly. However, I can't start collecting this until I'm 62, this is called "deferred retirement". The not-so-good part is that I lose my health and life insurance benefits. If I complete 30 years with the government and retire at age 57, I get a bigger pension and health/life insurance for the rest of my life. That's a HUGE benefit obviously but I'm not sure I'm willing to suffer 12 more years in a chair in front of a computer for 10 hours a day to get health/life insurance for the rest of my life.
I also did the Social Security calculations on their website as recommended. According to them, if I retire and stop earning money next year my monthly payment will be $1507. That's assuming I totally stop work, which I probably won't like MMM. I can see me doing jobs outside or in the outdoor industry that I'm more connected to and that keep me feeling healthy. Or becoming a Park Ranger.
So, based on this (mostly good) news, after age 62 I can start collecting a pension and social security which will be approximately $4276 monthly (before taxes and in today's money). That's $51,000+ per year. I'm starting to feel more optimistic...
What say you mustachians with this new info on my future benefits? Thanks again in advance!
(re)joining the conversation
esskay1000. Based on what you've written, I have the following synopsis for you:
Age: 45, single
Annual expenses (current): up to $30,000 with travel factored in. Does not include supporting brother and mother (below)
Liquid Assets: $1.1MM
Pension (age 62): $33,222/yr
SS benefits (age 65): $1507/mo
Liabilities:
Mortgage $160k at 3.x%
Brother (age 47) with health problems (type I diab.), currently lives off of $26k/year.
Mother (age 86) who lives off SS, owns home valued at $100k
The breakdown: You are in an excellent position financially, with only the 'unknowns' of two family members complicating things. Your pension and SS benefits will more than cover your personal expenses later in life (starting in 17 years), and you have a great deal of savings to 'bridge-the-gap'. Let's see what we can say about supporting your family members.
To be perfectly frank, the life expectancy of an otherwise healthy 86 year old
is just under 7 years. We can optimistically and conservatively plan for her to be around for another 13 years (a probability of ~5%) - long before you have pension income*. She will continue to receive SS benefits and has her home which could be used to provide for some end-of-life care (either by selling or via a reverse mortgage).
Your brother currently lives off about $26k/year but has chronic medical costs. His day-to-day needs aren't great, but he will need healthcare coverage and medical expenses for the rest of his life, which you may be called upon to provide from time to time.
You will get an additional 'tail-wind' in ~20 years when your mortgage disappears.
Here's how you could provide for yourself and your family members.There is no question that you have enough assets to retire today if you were only providing for yourself.
Given your mother's age, its sensible to only plan for her expenses over the next 13 years.
With $1.1MM in investments and a 4% WR you could have $44,000/year indexed to inflation with very little chance it will run out. Even better, because you have both a pension and SS which will cover all your expenses later in life, you only need that money to last 17 years ("bridging the gap" between now and your pension). This means you could use a much higher WR. Looking at fireCALC, a WR of 5.45% over 17 years gives you a 95% success rate and would provide you with $60k/year. Clearly this is enough to fully support yourself plus provide a lot of financial support to both your brother and mother.
Looking at this another way, your investments could provide you with $30k/year in income, plus an additional 5 years where you had $80k/year to provide $50k in support for your family members and you would still have an almost bulletproof retirement (historical success rate of 100%). That's a quarter-million$ in support for your mom and brother without impacting your retirement at all.
If you are able to find a job (e.g. National Park Service) to cover your expenses then your entire investment portfolio could be used to support family members in need. That could be up to $60k/year for up to 17 consecutive years.
Finally, given your assets I would not base any future job on your pension. Sure, in an ideal world you could work for the NPS and continue reaping pension benefits, but you have already won the game here. You have the assets to cover your heath-care costs, and your pension and SS will already provide you with more than enough income starting at age 62. A job (any job) seems optional here.
Additional information you might want to research:Cost for your bother's medical insurance. What does it cost to insure your brother? Check out healthcare.gov to get some basic insurance quotes, and also consider any assistance from medicaid (which might be considerable given his low income). He can already live on a relatively-low $26k/year (his current salary), so you could offer him support almost in perpetuity.
End-of-life care for your mother. There's no way of knowing this for certain, but there are estimates available. Don't forget that the value of her home can provide for some of her end-of-life care, even if it's after the fact (by selling the home).
*I never enjoy talking about age-expectancies for loved ones, but there's no room for emotion when looking at finances. Being "free" from your current job may very well allow you to spend more time with your mother and brother.