The Money Mustache Community
Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Ask a Mustachian => Topic started by: dabears847 on March 08, 2016, 04:42:35 PM
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Anxiety is kicking in...
Please take a look at the short excel sheet attached. Sheet One/Plan one is for 1/1/17 projected savings etc. and sheet two is for 1/1/18 target fund balance.
Question: How close is plan one to success in your eyes? 299 Days
2. What would you enhance to ensure success.
3. How could I best defend a down market 40% drop
Age 35,36
Ceiling Floor
Spending $38,500.00 $30,000.00
Rentals: Cash Out Value 1/1/2017 $53,000.00
Wait to sell for market to increase 1/1/2019 $125,000.00
Sell once Renters payoff properties 1/1/2028 $300,000.00
Family would like to relocate South for warmer weather but wont happen with the rentals and work needed to be done
The longer we hold onto the properties the better off we are, they cash flow and have 12 years remaining each on their mortgages.
Investments 1/1/2017 $860,000.00
Planned Value on 1/1/17
401k Rollover 3/4 and 1/4 Vanguard Joint Account Total Stock Market Fund
Planned to do Roth Conversion of $40,000 Yearly or 72t
80% Stocks 20% Bonds….. With a year of operating cash in checking
Kids College In State 2028 $40,000.00
2030 $40,000.00
Loan
Kids College Loans, Grants, Scholarships $4,000.00 20years 2028
We want to provide College support with time and money
Might cost less or more, but Income will be low allowing for College Grants and Scholarships.
Social Security 2042 $18,000.00
Social Security 2041 $18,000.00
Calculated future income via SS website based on current credits
House Paid Off 4-1-2016 Value $300,000.00
Downsize cash out 2041 Downsize $150,000.00 2035-2041
Home Equity for Emergency currently at zero
Would consider getting new heloc with 80% loan to value for those down markets as needed
Strategies
Variable spending range shown above
Social Security projections
Kids College Plan with Loans vs Lump sum increases cfiresim success rate
Kids College Could potential cost significantly less with Grants, Local College, and Scholarships
Potential for spending reduction later in life
Part Time work is an option but not preferred part of the plan,
Jon - I hold a Real Estate License as a backup plan
4% Rule $860,000.00 25 $34,400.00
Actual Spending 4.5% Withdrawal Rate $860,000.00 $38,500.00 4.477%
Floor $30,000.00 25 $750,000.00
Wait another year see plan 2: 1.2MM Savings
Note: My Wife probably wouldn't be too happy to start off in the first five years spending the floor.
Down Market???? What to do?
Market Drop
Annual Rebalance Automatic
Dip 10% Do Nothing, keep spending, don't watch
20% Start cutting spending, to floor or 4% withdrawal
40% Floor spending $30,000
50% Floor spending, Side Income Search target $10,000 Income
60% Floor spending, Side Income Search target $10,000 Income
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Just curious if the members online think I'm close to Fire or what else you would do? The rental and college thing has us concerned mostly.
Thanks!
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I saw your post a few days ago but didn't understand your formatting. For example, the kids college with years listed by it - is that annual spending for those years, or a lump sum, or ???
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I had to stop at the top to ask this burning question: what is leading you to believe that your rental is going to more than double in value by 2019? That's 2.5 years away...
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I had to stop at the top to ask this burning question: what is leading you to believe that your rental is going to more than double in value by 2019? That's 2.5 years away...
Rentals net distribution from a sale will increase due to the amortization schedule on the properties and with a goal of 6% property value increase over that period of time. 6% is very real and probably conservative knowing how far below the top of the market they once were.