Do you believe a market crash/correction is coming and what percentage of stocks is your portfolio?

Yes. 100%
Yes. 90% - 100%
Yes. 80% - 90%
Yes. 70% - 80%
Yes. 50% - 70%
Yes. < 50%
I do not believe the market will crash/correct in the near future
I do not care if a market crash is imminent

Author Topic: Those of you who think the market is bound to correct, do you still hold stocks?  (Read 2997 times)


  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5576
I frequently see people here make comments along the lines of, "market crash imminent, stocks are dangerous!"

I am curious how many people who believe this still have high percentage stock portfolios. It seems to be a common piece of advice here when people ask about investment planning. I am curious if this belief translates to people actually moving considerable portions of their portfolios to bonds or less risky investments. I know if I was convinced that the market was going to crash in the next year, I would move it to less risky investments. The "crash/correction incoming!" attitude is common enough advice to others that I am interested in understanding a bit better.

If you believe that the market is going to crash/correct soon, how does that influence your portfolio allocation? Do you folks who believe this have more conservative portfolios?


  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6147
Market timing generally results in making less (or losing) money. My allocation stays the same.


  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 458
  • Age: 44
  • Location: Up North
    • Physician On FIRE
I know for a fact a correction is coming. Several of them, actually.

I have no idea when they will occur.

I maintain my asset allocation and IPS, and will stick through it during the numerous corrections I expect to see in my remaining years on this earth.


  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2512
  • Age: 48
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
The market will crash and it will recover.   That's just the mechanics of the market.  If people can't accept that fact then they really shouldn't be in the market.


  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5472
  • Age: 36
  • Location: Seattle, WA
    • My blog
Certain statistics about the market are higher than their historical averages, which is a sign that the market may be overvalued. It seems reasonable to believe that prices will revert to the mean; that could mean a small correction, or it could mean a few years of slower-than-typical price growth. I'm sticking with my existing asset allocation. I have no way of knowing when or if a crash will come. If it does, I'll rebalance to buy more stocks when they go down.


  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7389
  • Senior Mustachian
I quibble with your poll. I am 100% sure that the market will have a correction. But I have no idea when that will be. There will be many in the future. However, I remain in stocks because in the long run the market will go up even if it's overvalued now. My $1 will be worth many dollars in future decades, even if it goes below $1 at some point.


  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 465
  • Age: 34
  • Location: Québec City, Canada
No doubt there will be many crashes/sales on stocks. I care very little as I'm not retired, don't depend on my investments, and have years and years to wait it out afterwards. I'll continue trudging along as I always have, and will invest on a consistent basis no matter what happens.

That being said, about 1/3 of my portfolio is in bonds for the simple reason that I used to have very unstable income (photographer), which is why at the time, my investments were all in bonds in case of emergency. I have kept those over the years (ladder system, first one will "expire" in 2019), and they provide a certain amount of albeit not-necessary security.


  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 134
I'm new to the forums and when I read the headline I thought 'oh man, this should be entertaining'.  But nope, just a bunch of level-headed and rational responses.  This might be the smartest internet forum I've ever been on, well done.


  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1687
1.  Trying to time the market is a losing proposition.
2.  You have to be right twice to time the market:  When to get out, then when to get back in.

I just ride it.