Buy euros now, or still wait?

[Grammymissy]

We are buying a home in Portugal approximately April 1.  Should we transfer US dollars now or wait to see if euro continues to drop against US dollar?     Thanks!

[4444]

in the end of the day you are speculating on the timing, this is tough.

i just exchanged USD to CAD at 1.16 after the sale of a US house (my debt was in USD), it's now 1.195 two weeks later - this hurts, but that's life.

my opinion (and it is only that), is that there is a little more movement on the USD/EUR front with QE potentially announced next Thursday, having said that QE in Europe is going to be partially priced in already.

If i were in your shoes, depending on the amount, i'd exchange it over a small number of exchanges, say 4 exchanges over the next 3 months.

in the end of the day, no one knows what will happen tomorrow that will affect the FX markets.

[goodlife]

I'm in the same dilemma. Your guess is as good as mine. I work in finance, seems most houses don't think the Euro would go below 1.15...but who knows really. Not sure yet what I will do.

[Villanelle]

I'd probably do a dollar cost averaging, though April 1 isn't that far away.  That's about 10 weeks, so I'd divide the amount I had into 10 and do 1/10 each week, assuming you don't pay a fee per exchange.

That said, make sure you research where to do the exchange.  Getting a good rate is going to be critical, and IME, US banks are terrible.  When I had yen I wanted to exchange for Euros, I was better off at the airport exchange booths, which are terrible themselves, than going to Chase.  Even even for USD to EUR, I do better at an ATM than I do at a US bank.  I'm sure the amounts you are looking at are far beyond what you can get from an ATM in a short time, but the point about rates stands.

[MustachianAccountant]

We are buying a home in Portugal approximately April 1.  Should we transfer US dollars now or wait to see if euro continues to drop against US dollar?     Thanks!

Are you happy with the exchange rate today? If so, then go for it. No sense in guessing, and if it continues to fall, shrug. No one can tell the future, so you shouldn't beat yourself up over it.

[James]

Dollar cost averaging is the way to go, but of course that depends on the cost of each transfer.

Like Villanelle said, the cost of the exchange is another big factor, so definitely worth figuring out in advance no matter when you exchange the money.

I think exchanging early is definitely better. Waiting until the last minute puts you in a bad place if something comes up to make a drastic change in rates. I would be risk averse given the short time frame and just move it over either now or averaged over weekly/monthly transfers, finishing at least a couple weeks before the time you need it.

[forummm]

There are tens of thousands of people who trade currencies all day long who probably know a lot more about the direction of the currencies than you do, and their trades move the market towards an equilibrium. I don't know how you expect to be able to figure it out better than they do. The other posters have good ideas about how to manage your risk.

[Grammymissy]

Thank you for all the responses, guess I just needed to see what I have been thinking.  I had been thinking, 3 money moves, husband likes 1 move.  Just have to do it and call any future possible losses, cost of the international move.  Thanks again!

[Capsu78]

If you follow the "Capsu78 index" ,  every time I head to the EU, it coincides with the worst conversion rate US to EU.
I am planning another trip to Italy in June.   Hope this helps!

[Grammymissy]

Good to know Capsu78