EDIT: now that you've posted your detailed budget & income, it looks like the below is not accurate. I'll respond again in a new post.What assumptions are you putting into your calculators that give you less than 100% success rates in your calculators?? If you have shareable links please share them!
You said you ran the numbers for you walking away in 2030 and your husband presumably working for a long time, and you got an 88% success rate. Meanwhile, if I assume the high end of your expense range, $120k/yr, and have
you quit your job
today, by the 4% rule
I find that he could join you in retirement, in only (median estimate) 13 years. (confidence interval: in 10% of cases, 9 years or less, in 90% of cases, 20 years or less). I assumed during the years your husband is working, he earns $220k gross and you pay $40k in taxes leaving $180k in takehome pay, and that these taxes are not reflected in your expenses. If I'm wrong the picture is even rosier for you.
That's
before we take into account the $20k in Social Security + $20k pension you would take in annually starting at age 70. If we
very conservatively say your husband will also have $20k in SS that brings your total to $60k/yr starting at 70. Again, if you trust the 4% rule this is money you will never need if your husband works until you hit 25x expenses and you never earn another cent starting today.
If you don't trust the 4% rule, I have even better news: if we do take this extra $60k/yr into account, it would take a worse market than the US has ever seen to derail your joint retirement, even if you quit today. I
ran the numbers in cFIREsim assuming that your household has no earners once you hit a target number of $3,360,000 ($120k * 25 * an extra factor of 1.12 to cover taxes in retirement—yes I'm pulling all these tax numbers out of my butt), and assuming that once you hit age 70 you have an extra $60k/yr. (In the linked simulations I assumed you are currently 38 because you said you've worked 16 years and I assume you started at 22. But luckily your current age has very little effect on the numbers.) This gives no failures at all.
Again, these estimates are very conservative. You will eventually pay off your house which will mean you need less money than indicated here. If you spend less than $120k/yr you need less money. If you get more than $60k/yr at age 70 you need less money. If you tax rates are lower than I indicated you need less money. If you have even the tiniest risk tolerance you need less money.
So to recap:
- Quit your job today. Or as soon as you like.
- Enjoy watching the money stack up as your husband's earnings cover your expenses with at least $60k/yr left over in savings
- Once in a while use a calculator to ask "will we have enough money to maintain our spending indefinitely if husband quits and we get $XXk per year in Social Security + pension starting at age 70?". Currently there is a lot of uncertainty because age 70 is far in the future. As it draws a bit closer and your 'stache gets bigger the uncertainty will be reduced.
- Once the answer is yes, husband can quit
- Probably he won't quit, and you'll have to decide what to do with all this money that keeps stacking up.
It's hard to overstate the position of financial strength that you are in. Now go figure out whether and why you want to keep working, because "for the money" is no longer a valid reason. :-D Congratulations! You won the game!