I've been running the numbers and cfiresim seems to think my plan is solid, but I wanted to get some other opinions.
Current situation:
I make approximately 38K before taxes. My savings rate is a little over 50%, and my net worth (ignoring pension) is around 150K. It's almost all invested in index funds, with a checking account buffer. In 5 years I should be able to grow this to about 350K. I work for a university system with a pension that I will vest in next year. If I stay 5 more years (9 years total), I will qualify for around $800/month starting at age 65. According to the Social Security calculator, I will get around $700/month starting at age 62 - if SS benefits don't change significantly. My current expenses are $1050/month + travel and irregular costs equaling around 17K per year. I anticipate this staying around the same at retirement, some things going down or disappearing, and some things going up. Under current ACA guidelines, I'd qualify for a subsidized plan and only pay around $70 a month. Of course this could change, which is one of my hesitations.
It's my understanding that if the withdrawal window is shorter or longer than standard 30 years, then the 4% rule shifts. In this case, the common consensus seems to be 5-5% SWR for 20 years (ages 43-65ish). The absolute worst case scenario would be that I'd be at $0 at that point, but my pension and SS would kick in. Using a 350K nest egg, I could withdraw around $17,500 using a 5%SWR.
What do you think?
