Author Topic: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?  (Read 8291 times)

freebeer

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Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« on: September 23, 2015, 02:26:06 PM »
I've never been a big diesel fan (breathed too many fumes in developing world cities) and that goes triple if emissions end up stuck at a higher level than advertised. But since part of Mustachianism is to take advantage of deals on things that are out of fashion, I wonder if some models of VWs may become, at least temporarily, sensible buys. Is the market for used VWs already crashing? Perhaps not yet but since there are presumably already 2015 models on lots maybe if VW has to fire sale to move them then that should dampen used prices too? Is it expected to be limited to diesels or is there likely spillover to gas models?

I should probably consolidate into one vehicle, with the teen driver off to college it makes even less sense to have two (although I love both my '08 Prius and '97 Aerostar XLT AWD, the latter is a beast and at $1300 with less than 100K miles it was a sound purchase - it's not depreciating and probably saved me money just from putting less miles on the Prius). I was thinking about going to just a Subaru or CRV (I do snow and dirt-road driving, and need to be able to tow a utility trailer) but maybe a Jetta Sportwagen could be a Mustachian choice at the right price... (?)

bobechs

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2015, 03:15:25 PM »
No.

At the risk of being obstinately misunderstood by the literalists hereabouts, the good thing is they aren't Jeeps.

The bad thing is they are VeeDubs.

'Nuff sed.

coffeehound

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2015, 03:15:38 PM »
It's too early to tell...........

1. Is the market for used VWs already crashing? VW has suspended sales of all used and new TDI models until the company develops a fix, so it's unlikely you will be able to purchase one through a dealer any time soon. I'd hesitate to buy one from a private owner at this juncture, since the new owner would then face needing to deal with installing whatever fix VW develops, and the potential for decreased performance/fuel efficiency/cargo capacity due to the fix.


2.   Is it expected to be limited to diesels or is there likely spillover to gas models? It's currently limited to diesel engines, specifically 4-cyclinder, 2 liter engines produced in model years 2009-2015. However, you can bet VW is going to face scrutiny regarding emissions estimates in gasoline models.

3. Again, I'd hold off on visions of a cheap Sportwagon at this time - also, VW diesels are not necessarily a mustachian choice anyway, due to the expenses associated with maintenance. Also, if you're looking for a tow vehicle, you'll want to hold off to see how the 'fix' affects performance.

Eric

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2015, 06:10:21 PM »
I've started scouting for 2009 or 2010 wagons.  Everything coffeehound mentioned above is probably on point, but I'm a fan of the VW and certainly the company will be on the hook for fixing the issues.  I'd bet a potential dip in performance or gas mileage (diesel mileage?) will be more than made up for if you can get a good deal.

Paul der Krake

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2015, 06:20:54 PM »
I'd hesitate to buy one from a private owner at this juncture, since the new owner would then face needing to deal with installing whatever fix VW develops, and the potential for decreased performance/fuel efficiency/cargo capacity due to the fix.
Eh, how bad could it be? The loss of power should be of no concern to a Mustachian, since even the least-powered cars available in North America are powerful enough to safely merge on the freeway. Recalls are paid for by the carmaker.

JLee

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2015, 08:16:17 PM »
I'd hesitate to buy one from a private owner at this juncture, since the new owner would then face needing to deal with installing whatever fix VW develops, and the potential for decreased performance/fuel efficiency/cargo capacity due to the fix.
Eh, how bad could it be? The loss of power should be of no concern to a Mustachian, since even the least-powered cars available in North America are powerful enough to safely merge on the freeway. Recalls are paid for by the carmaker.

I'm unable to find a source to confirm, but I read someone on another forum claim a 43% mpg loss.

protostache

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2015, 08:21:21 PM »
I don't understand how this could present a milage loss. It's just deactivating an expensive exhaust filter, right?

Edit: Here's an article from an engineering perspective that explains possible ways they could be accomplishing the defeat: https://www.carthrottle.com/post/engineering-explained-whats-all-the-hype-about-vw-and-emissions-cheating/
« Last Edit: September 23, 2015, 08:30:35 PM by protostache »

terran

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2015, 08:32:33 PM »
I don't understand how this could present a milage loss. It's just deactivating an expensive exhaust filter, right?

As I understand it emissions controls often involve recycling exhaust back through the system to burn it up more, but the exhaust isn't helpful in creating the explosion that drives the pistons, so it reduces power and efficiency. It does reduce the harmful emissions though. What VW did was make it so that when the car was being tested for emissions it would recycle the exhaust back through as it was supposed to, but when not being tested it would disable these required emissions controls thus improving power and gas/diesel mileage, but putting a lot more gross stuff back into the air.

tmitchell

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2015, 08:43:01 PM »
at the risk of sounding moralistic, why--no matter how cheap something is--would anyone here want to get behind a car that's been made by a corp who lied to the world, pretending to be eco-friendly etc in the name of profit? MMM tweeted about cheap Leafs. why not go that route??

some things are more valuable than money IMHO.


Syonyk

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2015, 09:08:41 PM »
I don't understand how this could present a milage loss. It's just deactivating an expensive exhaust filter, right?

No... those are pretty well fixed in the exhaust stream.

It's about your EGR values, ignition timing, etc.  You can make a low NOx emissions engine by running EGR at max, and delaying fuel injection to reduce peak combustion temperatures (which drive NOx formation).  This does ugly things to volumetric efficiency and fuel economy, but it does nice things to emissions.

Jack

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2015, 09:20:20 PM »
Yes, it's an excellent opportunity.

But then again, I live somewhere that doesn't do emissions tests on Diesels, and would have no objection to having a tuner undo the recall's modifications (or better yet, re-tune the car for more power and/or MPG than stock!).

freebeer

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2015, 10:41:45 PM »
at the risk of sounding moralistic, why--no matter how cheap something is--would anyone here want to get behind a car that's been made by a corp who lied to the world, pretending to be eco-friendly etc in the name of profit? MMM tweeted about cheap Leafs. why not go that route??

some things are more valuable than money IMHO.

Call me a cynic but I'm thinking there's a good chance this is the tip of the iceberg and we'll soon hear that several other major automakers are cheating in a similar manner. In any case many of them did in the not so distant past: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-23/carmaker-cheating-on-emissions-almost-as-old-as-pollution-tests . Basically I assume that all corporations will be happy to lie and pretend to be eco-friendly in the name of profit, if sufficient incentive is dangled in front of them. I certainly don't want to reward VW but neither am I shocked, shocked, shocked. And part of the essence of Mustachianism - to me anyway - includes not letting yourself be identified by your car (or your house or any other possessions): so in buying a car you are not "getting behind" a brand, you are obtaining needed transportation services, hopefully at a favorable price.

Re: cheap Leafs, not really an option to be my sole car which needs to get me to mountain trailheads and handle other road trips, and tow utility trailer. But yes this VW post was in part inspired by that tweet.



Hamster

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2015, 11:43:30 PM »
Off topic, but honestly, why are the corporate execs that allow this sort of thing to happen not thrown in jail? Fining a corporation and demanding recalls is one thing, but making the decision makers pay the price for their lying, cheating, and harm seems much more appropriate.

Syonyk

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2015, 12:44:50 AM »
Campaign Contributions. And such.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2015, 02:34:13 AM »
Nah, they're still expensive because people are prepared to pay a premium for the badge here.

Besides, what kind of self-respecting Mustachian buys something as excessive as a car that's only six years old? :)

ShoulderThingThatGoesUp

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2015, 06:11:49 AM »
I expect that VW has been shortchanging their customers in other ways. Once you start cheating you don't stop.

tmitchell

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2015, 10:13:24 PM »
no question corporations will do anything for profit (as that's their purview), but we here are generally trying to get away from the corporate drag generally, no?

i'm just asking a larger question: is it kosher to buy/support a company that is in open, direct violaion of both law and environmental values? sure they all cheat, but is it ok for us to knowingly/willingly support that just to get a deal?

where's the line?

Paul der Krake

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2015, 04:44:19 AM »
i'm just asking a larger question: is it kosher to buy/support a company that is in open, direct violaion of both law and environmental values? sure they all cheat, but is it ok for us to knowingly/willingly support that just to get a deal?
Good point, but buying a lightly used car from a private individual doesn't do much for VW's bottom line. Sure, it props up the resale value of the vehicle, and you might order some parts from VW in the future, but that's rather negligeable.

Which is worse, driving a cheating car that is still cleaner than old beaters that many here drive around (with kudos from everybody!), or letting it go to the landfill to be replaced by a spanking new vehicle?

Reduce, reuse, recycle. The order is important.

Rural

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2015, 05:41:28 AM »
i'm just asking a larger question: is it kosher to buy/support a company that is in open, direct violaion of both law and environmental values? sure they all cheat, but is it ok for us to knowingly/willingly support that just to get a deal?
Good point, but buying a lightly used car from a private individual doesn't do much for VW's bottom line. Sure, it props up the resale value of the vehicle, and you might order some parts from VW in the future, but that's rather negligeable.

Which is worse, driving a cheating car that is still cleaner than old beaters that many here drive around (with kudos from everybody!), or letting it go to the landfill to be replaced by a spanking new vehicle?

Reduce, reuse, recycle. The order is important.


Also it costs something in environmental terms to produce and deliver diesel fuel, including the extra fuel required by emissions scrubbers that lower fuel efficiency. It's likely this cost approaches the environmental cost of emissions that are not as clean. Doesn't excuse the company, but does mean it's not an environmentally harmful move to keep an already-manufactured vehicle on the road, even to keep it with the emissions cheater intact. No emissions testing at all here, and we're looking into the wagons (and the cost of parts) since we were shopping for a wagon now anyway.

Threshkin

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2015, 11:42:58 AM »
I have a 2015 Golf TDI.  Needless to say I am following this issue with some interest!

One one hand I am disappointed, but not surprised, that VW cheated.  Cheating, bypassing, or just ignoring rules is the norm worldwide.  Developing countries get beat up for ignoring rules and graft but IMO, the same thing is happening in developed countries, it is just better hidden.

On the other hand, I am very happy with my car otherwise.  The we average over 40 mpg on 90% short, in town trips.  The fit and finish is excellent.  The vehicle is a perfect balance between small size and carrying capacity for our needs.  I have no intention of selling the car for at least 10, if not 20 years so I really don't care about the resale value now or in the future, it is a sunk cost with minimal ongoing expenses.

jba302

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2015, 10:40:45 AM »
at the risk of sounding moralistic, why--no matter how cheap something is--would anyone here want to get behind a car that's been made by a corp who lied to the world, pretending to be eco-friendly etc in the name of profit? MMM tweeted about cheap Leafs. why not go that route??

some things are more valuable than money IMHO.

Call me a cynic but I'm thinking there's a good chance this is the tip of the iceberg and we'll soon hear that several other major automakers are cheating in a similar manner. In any case many of them did in the not so distant past: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-23/carmaker-cheating-on-emissions-almost-as-old-as-pollution-tests . Basically I assume that all corporations will be happy to lie and pretend to be eco-friendly in the name of profit, if sufficient incentive is dangled in front of them. I certainly don't want to reward VW but neither am I shocked, shocked, shocked. And part of the essence of Mustachianism - to me anyway - includes not letting yourself be identified by your car (or your house or any other possessions): so in buying a car you are not "getting behind" a brand, you are obtaining needed transportation services, hopefully at a favorable price.

Re: cheap Leafs, not really an option to be my sole car which needs to get me to mountain trailheads and handle other road trips, and tow utility trailer. But yes this VW post was in part inspired by that tweet.

Kind of a point that goes along with this - Recently we purchased a gas leafblower. It quit working REALLY fast, like 2 days. 2 cycles are pretty straight forward so this was confusing with fresh fuel. Doing some research, I learned that Husqvarna uses something specific for their fuel (non-oxy and something else... I'm drawing a blank) and tunes the carb in such a way to force it within emissions standards, but it needs to be back for regular fuel which is then no longer within emissions standard. Kind of obnoxious really.

Left

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2015, 10:45:36 AM »
Mustache cars would be ones like Honda or Toyota, easy access to parts... vw parts harder to come by in some areas and more expensive

Even without current problems, I wouldn't call a vw a good buy, fun buy sure but not a good dyi car

humbleMouse

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #22 on: October 09, 2015, 11:03:36 AM »
If anything the price of these used vw diesels are going to go up.  The car isn't being sold right now and won't ever be sold exactly the same ever again, so scarcity will drive prices up. 

Furthermore, most people don't actually care about the environment.

facts:
tdi's get great gas mileage
tdi's are super fast and fun to drive
tdi's are going to be rarer now.
most people don't care about the environment and they just want a fast car that gets good gas mileage


Based on the facts I think the price of these cars will go up.  Morals about the environment are not going to to effect prices!!!! The market doesn't care about morals. 
 

GuitarStv

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #23 on: October 09, 2015, 11:34:51 AM »
Off topic, but honestly, why are the corporate execs that allow this sort of thing to happen not thrown in jail? Fining a corporation and demanding recalls is one thing, but making the decision makers pay the price for their lying, cheating, and harm seems much more appropriate.

The law isn't based on providing punishment in relation to the scope and damage of the crime committed.  An awful lot of it is based on emotion.  Seeing a guy break a window and grab a TV is an obviously bad and scary thing . . . it's easier to sell harder punishments for that dude (who's probably one of the icky poor too, yuck) than the guy in a nice suit with a hundred dollar haircut who's sending out questionable memos.

Then we get into the fact that people with lots of money have completely different experiences with law enforcement and the legal system than people without. . .

brainfart

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #24 on: October 09, 2015, 11:54:48 AM »
Quote
why--no matter how cheap something is--would anyone here want to get behind a car that's been made by a corp who lied to the world, pretending to be eco-friendly etc in the name of profit?

Because VW was the unfortunate first to be exposed. All others are just as bad... ignition key problems, SUVs rolling over, non-functioning airbags etc.

VW cheated in an artificial, absolutely unrealistic test. Make the tests better, and recheck independently.

Quote
Off topic, but honestly, why are the corporate execs that allow this sort of thing to happen not thrown in jail? Fining a corporation and demanding recalls is one thing, but making the decision makers pay the price for their lying, cheating, and harm seems much more appropriate.

Sounds like a good principle for politics, too.
Lie to start a war ---> capital punishment?

Hamster

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #25 on: October 09, 2015, 01:49:14 PM »
Based on the facts I think the price of these cars will go up.  Morals about the environment are not going to to effect prices!!!! The market doesn't care about morals.
"The market" doesn't care about anything.

But buyers make choices, their choices impact prices, and perceived environmental impact or enviro-street-cred does effect buyers' choices.

JLee

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #26 on: October 09, 2015, 01:58:11 PM »
If anything the price of these used vw diesels are going to go up.  The car isn't being sold right now and won't ever be sold exactly the same ever again, so scarcity will drive prices up. 

Furthermore, most people don't actually care about the environment.

facts:
tdi's get great gas mileage
tdi's are super fast and fun to drive
tdi's are going to be rarer now.
most people don't care about the environment and they just want a fast car that gets good gas mileage


Based on the facts I think the price of these cars will go up.  Morals about the environment are not going to to effect prices!!!! The market doesn't care about morals.

lmao our definitions must differ. I drove an early 2000's Jetta TDI and it was painfully slow.

Anyway, Consumer Reports did some testing:
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/testing-volkswagen-diesel-fuel-economy-and-performance-in-cheat-mode

humbleMouse

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #27 on: October 09, 2015, 02:23:09 PM »
If anything the price of these used vw diesels are going to go up.  The car isn't being sold right now and won't ever be sold exactly the same ever again, so scarcity will drive prices up. 

Furthermore, most people don't actually care about the environment.

facts:
tdi's get great gas mileage
tdi's are super fast and fun to drive
tdi's are going to be rarer now.
most people don't care about the environment and they just want a fast car that gets good gas mileage


Based on the facts I think the price of these cars will go up.  Morals about the environment are not going to to effect prices!!!! The market doesn't care about morals.

lmao our definitions must differ. I drove an early 2000's Jetta TDI and it was painfully slow.

Anyway, Consumer Reports did some testing:
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/testing-volkswagen-diesel-fuel-economy-and-performance-in-cheat-mode

When I say "fast"  I mean fast compared to any other consumer car that is somewhat affordable for the laypaerson and gets 30+mpg

brainfart

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #28 on: October 09, 2015, 11:45:38 PM »
Diesel domino: Mercedes-Benz, Honda, Mazda,  Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, Citroen, Fiat, Volvo and Mitsubishi.

Four more carmakers join diesel emissions row
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/09/mercedes-honda-mazda-mitsubishi-diesel-emissions-row

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/30/wide-range-of-cars-emit-more-pollution-in-real-driving-conditions-tests-show

Jack

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #29 on: October 10, 2015, 06:31:51 AM »
If anything the price of these used vw diesels are going to go up.  The car isn't being sold right now and won't ever be sold exactly the same ever again, so scarcity will drive prices up. 

Furthermore, most people don't actually care about the environment.

facts:
tdi's get great gas mileage
tdi's are super fast and fun to drive
tdi's are going to be rarer now.
most people don't care about the environment and they just want a fast car that gets good gas mileage


Based on the facts I think the price of these cars will go up.  Morals about the environment are not going to to effect prices!!!! The market doesn't care about morals.

lmao our definitions must differ. I drove an early 2000's Jetta TDI and it was painfully slow.

Anyway, Consumer Reports did some testing:
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/testing-volkswagen-diesel-fuel-economy-and-performance-in-cheat-mode

When I say "fast"  I mean fast compared to any other consumer car that is somewhat affordable for the laypaerson and gets 30+mpg

With a couple hundred dollars in mods, early 2000s TDIs can easily be actually-fast (equal to or better than GTIs). 'Course, then their emissions are even (a little bit) worse, LOL.

lbmustache

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #30 on: October 10, 2015, 08:46:45 AM »
Just as a heads up, I know buying new is not the mustachian way but:

- VW is offering $2000 "owner loyalty" incentive for anyone who currently owns a VW or has a relative who owns a VW (just have to show proof of ownership/relationship)
- 0% financing
- Deal lasts till Nov 2

The cheaper models they're trying tp push out (2015 Jettas, etc.) may not be a bad buy for someone who was looking to buy new. They are going to discount them heavily towards the end of the month because I bet sales are gonna tank before the holiday rush. If I recall correctly the 2.0 engine on the base model is rock-solid reliable. There aren't many electronics to malfunction ;) 1.8 engine on higher trims is reliable too.

VW cannot sell TDI's right now, but Carmax or other dealers may be trying to offload them for cheap.

Jack

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Re: Are/will VWs become good deals for Mustachians?
« Reply #31 on: October 10, 2015, 08:54:16 AM »
Just as a heads up, I know buying new is not the mustachian way but:

- VW is offering $2000 "owner loyalty" incentive for anyone who currently owns a VW or has a relative who owns a VW (just have to show proof of ownership/relationship)
- 0% financing
- Deal lasts till Nov 2

The cheaper models they're trying tp push out (2015 Jettas, etc.) may not be a bad buy for someone who was looking to buy new. They are going to discount them heavily towards the end of the month because I bet sales are gonna tank before the holiday rush. If I recall correctly the 2.0 engine on the base model is rock-solid reliable. There aren't many electronics to malfunction ;) 1.8 engine on higher trims is reliable too.

Unfortunately for that plan, the TDI engine was the only good reason to buy a VW.