Thanks so much for your nice words.
I don't know, I am very bothered by all this.
First, there is a kind of a cultural pressure that well paid expats should be putting their kids in private schools. Most people think we're slightly weird for even doing this pre-school year. To make the matter worse, several of our friends who are also slightly on the hippie side (i.e. often vocal against private schools) ended up chickening out in the last minute and putting their kids in one.
They essentially cite the same reasons I mentioned as cons - the linguistic situation is challenging and you become locked into a relatively small area (this is a tiny country and a tiny capital city).
Second, I really do feel incredibly burdened by the prospect of having to live in this place forever. My kids are small now but once peer pressure kicks in how am I going to justify it to the kids and to myself that we are not upgrading our housing (and at some point we're really gonna have to, I'm not gonna squish 3 kids into one bedroom while building a fortune in the bank, that sounds too "uncle Scrooge" for me).
While we are not really planning to FIRE, not truly early at least (maybe in our fifties), we like the rationality and freedom that comes with living well below our means. On the other hand maybe I am underestimating how affordable this crap actually is, there is no property tax here and mortgage interest is 1,5%, our monthly payment on a mansion would be around 4000€, that sounds insane but our monthly disposable income is 11000, financially we can keep up with the neighborhood.. it's just that we don't want to.
We really ended up living here my accident, it was where we got our first temporary airbnb but then started to really enjoy the area and stayed by pure inertia. We would probably never have actively chosen this area for the long term if all things were equal so obviously I have resistance to locking myself into it by settling the boys into the school.
Bolded #1: Yep, the pressure to keep up with the Joneses sucks, don't it? This is a very real emotional issue for you to deal with, but it is not an actual reason to choose private school.
The remaining bolded: I think you are construing my advice too narrowly: I recommend that you make the decision that you think will work for you
now, and leave all of tomorrow's "what ifs" to tomorrow. One of those "what ifs" is whether the school works for your kid -- but another one is whether you have another kid and ultimately need to move out of the neighborhood.
You are basically doing what I do: looking at a future possibility and converting it into the worst possible outcome -- "awfulizing" it. That makes everything binary -- either we make the perfect decision now, OR we'll be stuck here and I'll be claustrophobic and even thinking about that makes me miserable here today! But if you think about it rationally, look at all of the off-ramps on the road to "awful":
1. We want another kid. OK, cool. But maybe you end up not having one.
2. When we have another kid, we will want to buy a house. OK, again cool. But maybe you won't. Or maybe, poof, you'll find the magical long-term rental. Or maybe you will have some financial issue and can't actually afford the house you want.
3. There are very few houses in this neighborhood. OK, that sucks. But maybe you'll find one!
4. If we can only find a house outside of this district, our kid will need to change schools. Again: OK. Most people would prefer to have their kids in one school for the whole time. But a ton of kids change schools and do just fine. The odds are almost overwhelming that your kid will be one of them.
5. What if we change schools and it's horrible and my kids are wrecked? You change again. Even in this absolute worst-case scenario, you have the resources to choose another school, to get your kid therapy, and do whatever else you need to for the good of your kid.
IOW, this decision feels so fraught because you are tunnel-visioning the worst possible outcomes -- I must do this right, or all these horribles will happen and I/we/they will be miserable! But to go back to my original point, the biggest favor you can do yourself is to pull apart your own thinking and recognize that your family's future happiness does
not rest on your making the perfect decision now. You, and your kids, are stronger and more flexible than you think.