do the actual math both ways. but i'd include a 3rd option which will 100% beat the 10% penalty.
you likely could do Roth conversions to avoid the 10% penalty after the first 5 years. so you'd only need a 5 year bridge not the full 15 years worth of payments. my guess is this will come out far ahead. at 50k you can convert alot of money over to roth and pay just 15% or less tax on it. with no penalty.
This.
Also, how old are you? If you are close to 59.5, then you could consider SEPP distributions(this means you start drawing a monthly income from your 401K penalty free. If you are really far from 59.5, then the Roth conversion is probably better, for two reasons. First, you have 6 years to prepare, so the roth conversion ladders 5 year wait period is no problem. Second, you can turn the spigot off on the conversion ladder. Once you start SEPP distributions, you can't stop, which is why I think they are meh for people who are really young.
So yeah, probably just do the conversion ladder like Boarder said, good luck!