Trade your bike for an SUV...

[The Guru]

....because Trump will make it so!

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/how-president-trump-will-change-what-you-drive/ar-BBzFFdr?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp

[LalsConstant]

I want to find the author of that piece and beat him her with a copy of Thomas Sowell's Basic Economics until it sinks in.

[jinga nation]

DFP is a shill for GM, Ford, and Chrysler. And Big Oil.
China and India are reducing coal usage and moving to Solar.
Methinks conspiracy between BigOil and BigAuto to collude and reduce the gasoline usage loss and create demand.
My next car, if and when, my 11 yr old Honda breaks down, will be all electric. Or worst case a plug-in hybrid.
Japan's car ownership rate is reducing. USA maybe next if millennials decide to emulate that.
BigAuto and BigOil are having trouble keeping up with the changing trends. Plus upstarts like Tesla kicking their ass.

[slugline]

I guess this is a good time if you're in the market to buy a car on the Mustachian end of the spectrum.

[Just Joe]

I'm very much interested in the ways our town would change if oil was $6 a gallon. I think in the long term it would be for the better.

[sw1tch]

I'm very much interested in the ways our town would change if oil was $6 a gallon. I think in the long term it would be for the better.

Maybe I'll finally have a dedicated bike lane...

[jinga nation]

DFP is a shill for GM, Ford, and Chrysler. And Big Oil.
China and India are reducing coal usage and moving to Solar.
Methinks conspiracy between BigOil and BigAuto to collude and reduce the gasoline usage loss and create demand.
My next car, if and when, my 11 yr old Honda breaks down, will be all electric. Or worst case a plug-in hybrid.
Japan's car ownership rate is reducing. USA maybe next if millennials decide to emulate that.
BigAuto and BigOil are having trouble keeping up with the changing trends. Plus upstarts like Tesla kicking their ass.

Tesla delivered 76,230 cars in 2016.  Toyota reported sales for 2016 were 2,449,630 . So although I like Tesla, to say they are kicking anyone's ass is rather false.

I see one Tesla for every 10000ish every other car around me. I have seen about 8 Tesla's on the road in Cleveland. I would imagine that's different in the west coast.

Tesla
http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=1006161

Toyota http://corporatenews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota-lexus-december-2016-sales.htm

Sorry for the kicking ass hyperbole. Plus Wall Street evaluations hyperbole on Tesla doesn't help my case.

I'm waiting to see the effect of Model 3 on the luxury domestic/foreign cars.
Maybe Tesla is the elephant in the room and sucking up the O2. Toyota has sold over 50000 hybrids/plugins YTD, Ford over 24000, and Tesla over 13000. See the chart at http://www.autoblog.com/2017/04/10/march-the-still-charged-up-edition/

I see a lot of Teslas and Leafs and Volts in the Tampa area, tons of Prius and Camry hybrids, and the occasional Fisker karma. Maybe it is because I live in a middle class area, commute via downtown into another area of upper-middle to high net-worth. Anecdotal data at best.

[Just Joe]

I keep expecting the cheap gasoline we are experiencing to put the hurt on the high-tech gas-sippers... I also don't expect the cheap gas to last.

[AlanStache]

"If the standards threaten auto jobs, then common-sense changes could have — and should have — been made."

Does government policy by "common-sense" piss anyone else off?  Like why look at data or consult with experts or conduct an experiment when we can rely on some guys preconceived idea based on a news headline he read three years ago.  Or why look at secondary effects of a policy? 

I have read a few of the automakers actual press releases dealing with the "big new investments in production facilities in Merica" we have been hearing about.  The ones I have read were talking about largely automated factories, employing roboticists, engineers and IT folk, not blue collar guys with wrenches.

When gas prices spike we will see lots of people yelling about the sky falling and how could they ever have known this  could happen. 

[Just Joe]

Common sense and government is not always possible. Would I listen to a scientist from NASA or one of the national laboratories? Absolutely.

Would I listen to some of the more recent politicians who may or may need mental health treatment? Absolutely not.

I prefer that we listen to the science experts. No listening to the lobbyists or the politicians who often have their own "alternative facts" aka "make somebody rich schemes".

[TheGrimSqueaker]

Common sense and government is not always possible. Would I listen to a scientist from NASA or one of the national laboratories? Absolutely.

Would I listen to some of the more recent politicians who may or may need mental health treatment? Absolutely not.

I prefer that we listen to the science experts. No listening to the lobbyists or the politicians who often have their own "alternative facts" aka "make somebody rich schemes".

Science experts give good advice on science related topics that they have actually studied. They aren't necessarily expert negotiators or well informed about things like nutrition or special education. Some of the most idiotic and misinformed things I've heard in my life have been said by scientists and engineers.

[Fomerly known as something]

Big Auto isn't as anti change as many think.  Many in the companies themselves like designing more fuel efficient cars and using them.  But they also are for profit industries and the market still wants gas mammoths.  And frankly Tesla is allowed to lose money Ford is not. 


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[AlanStache]

...

Science experts give good advice on science related topics that they have actually studied. They aren't necessarily expert negotiators or well informed about things like nutrition or special education. Some of the most idiotic and misinformed things I've heard in my life have been said by scientists and engineers.

Well yes it goes without saying that one would consult an expert in the relevant field.  I would not expect Chris Hadfield to be an expert in agricultural fertilizer runoff into wetlands.  Nutrition and Special Ed are not a science?

[Chris22]

Big Auto isn't as anti change as many think.  Many in the companies themselves like designing more fuel efficient cars and using them.  But they also are for profit industries and the market still wants gas mammoths.  And frankly Tesla is allowed to lose money Ford is not. 


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One thing to consider is that car makers are in business to make money, and small cars are generally not very profitable to sell.  The margins are low, the competition is fierce, and prices are low meaning a high cost base (i.e., northern-US UAW labor rates) is a profit killer.  Large SUVs are popular with domestic carmakers because A) they are generally built on platforms that are shared with high-volume pickups so development costs are low, B) they are popular with consumers at a pricepoint that is not very price sensitive, C) few foreign carmakers are players in the segment, D) prices are high so margins can be higher, etc etc etc.  Literally it's a choice between selling a Tahoe for $75k where you make $15k of margin or a Malibu for $20k where you might make $1500 of margin.  Or a Spark for $12k where you might make $500 or lose money.  And Tahoes are considered popular and you're leading that market, and Malibus and Sparks are kind of the dumb kids in the segment that have to be sold at a discount to move them because that's where the Japanese are so good.

[jinga nation]

To add to Chris22's response, small cars are built for CAFE reasons.

Article from 1999: http://wardsauto.com/news-analysis/small-stature-big-market-why-automakers-maintain-their-small-car-focus

Small cars help automakers meet corporate average fuel economy standards (CAFE), thus allowing them to sell more highly profitable, but less fuel efficient large cars.

[Just Joe]

Aren't small cars mostly to carry the company through recessions and gas price spikes? Also to offset the gas guzzlers in the company CAFE averages?

[MgoSam]

It'll be interesting to see if self-driving cars will diminish demand for personal use cars.

[Just Joe]

I figure for the first year or two some people are going to be sending their cars out alone to do pointless errands.

Okay Chevy 4x4 truck - drive across town and fetch me a pizza!

Pizza place is expecting a Chevy truck to appear alone, the pizza is paid for over the phone, and they simply put the pizza on the seat and lock the door back.

The next new feature from On-Star - on demand long distance unlock via smart phone. (They already have emergency unlock but it requires calling an operator).

[mwulff]

What is really holding back electric car adoption is the lack of models and the high price.

Currently if you want/need a pickup truck you can't buy one, no matter how much money you have.

Teslas next step is the Model 3 sedan and shortly thereafter they will follow up with a Model Y crossover. At that point the whole thing will explode. Also remember that Tesla currently is one of the auto-manufacturers with access to their own battery-factory.

GM, Ford and almost all the other big ones are limited by the fact that the current worldwide capacity for Li-ion battery production will not cover their needs. Also they would be dependent on LG Chem, Sony, BYD and Samsung for their batteries and it would basically reduce them to makers of wheel-shells. So it's no wonder that they don't want to go down that path.

The german auto industry has been caught completely flat-footed and has no battery manufacturing capacity to speak of, this potentially could be the end of them.

So Tesla is well placed in the market that will arrive in the next 4-5 years. This is why investors are flocking to their stock. The big automakers missed the change, missed the target and are too slow to turn.

BYD, Tesla and a few others will eventually have them for lunch.

[Just Joe]

My first electric car has pedals. What a thrill to ride. Makes a bike into a tool even in hill country.

[HairyUpperLip]

The german auto industry has been caught completely flat-footed and has no battery manufacturing capacity to speak of, this potentially could be the end of them.

German cars + their electrical reputations makes me really wonder if they can even try to keep up with the changes...

[Just Joe]

My last foray into modern German cars was the 1990s. Hasn't it gotten better since then? Making functional wiring harnesses is sort of a basic car thing that most other brands have sorted out.

[Footsore Rambler]

My first electric car has pedals. What a thrill to ride. Makes a bike into a tool even in hill country.

I've got a bike with an e-motor on it, and I couldn't agree harder.  I've dubbed her Hildegard the Mountain Slayer. 

[Just Joe]

I call mine "the Magic Bike". These aren't common here. Witnessed a driver do a double take when I silently glided up a slight inclined intersection without pedaling. I think they "got it" but it sure was funny.