Author Topic: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new  (Read 4486 times)

ChpBstrd

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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/some-used-vehicles-are-selling-for-more-now-than-when-they-were-new/?ftag=CNM-00-10aac3a#app

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When it was new, the window sticker price on a typical 2019 Toyota Tacoma SR double cab pickup was just under $29,000. Two years later, dealers are paying almost $1,000 more than that to buy the same vehicle, even though it's used. Then they're selling it to consumers for more than $33,000.

As soon as the chip shortage is resolved, these consumers are going to get toasted by depreciation.

If only there was some technology that could provide transportation and exercise at a cost near zero. Or if only there was some way to share rides. Maybe someday.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2021, 03:47:15 PM »
That's no joke.  In 2014, we paid about $10k for our 2006 Honda Odyssey with 90k miles.  Today, dealerships are selling vans from that generation (2005-2010) with 85-100k miles for about the same price.

We've been looking for a deal on a newer Odyssey for the last couple of months, and earlier this week decided to suspend our search.  We figured that we can wait it out another 8 months until the chip shortage eases, car dealerships have inventory again, and used car prices hopefully return to something resembling sanity.

JLee

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2021, 04:06:30 PM »
Yep.  A coworker just bought a used Model 3 for more than I paid for mine new last year.

chemistk

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2021, 05:31:46 AM »
That's no joke.  In 2014, we paid about $10k for our 2006 Honda Odyssey with 90k miles.  Today, dealerships are selling vans from that generation (2005-2010) with 85-100k miles for about the same price.

We've been looking for a deal on a newer Odyssey for the last couple of months, and earlier this week decided to suspend our search.  We figured that we can wait it out another 8 months until the chip shortage eases, car dealerships have inventory again, and used car prices hopefully return to something resembling sanity.

Holy crap - your note made me want to run comps on our '14 Ody. The average list price is, I kid you not $3k OVER what we paid for our van in 2019 with MORE miles. We paid $16900 for our van with 74k miles on it, and the average list price on Cargurus (nationwide, exact specs as our van) is $19,800 with an average of over 100k miles.

We'd never sell it but crazy to think that I could turn a huge profit on the thing after 2+ years and 25k miles.

norajean

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2021, 05:50:02 AM »
The 2010 Lexus GS350 I bought in 2018 for $10K is now worth $15k.  I love the car, otherwise I would sell it.

No telling how many years these shortages and inflationary times will last. Low interest rates, consumers with pent up cash, lingering flu in Asia all  could add up to 3-5 years of low supply and high demand.

mtnrider

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2021, 08:27:16 AM »
Sadly it's only some vehicles.  My wife's and I have the same model year cars.  Her's is a sporty european hatchback in very good condition, mine is a vanilla Prius with scratches.

I was surprised to find that carvana priced the Prius resale value at $12k, but hers was priced at $6k.  The sporty car is priced lower than 9 months ago (when we checked last).  The Prius went up by a few thousand dollars.

Too bad for us, we were hoping to get rid of the sporty car if the price had gone up.

But who would have thought that a 6+ year old Prius would go up in value? :)

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2021, 08:28:37 AM »
From what I've seen, the high prices in the car industry are being driven largely by the global computer chip shortage.  Car manufacturers actually have whole plants shut down because they can't get computers to build into the cars.  At the car dealership across the street from me, the lot is only 20% occupied, and many of those vehicles are used cars of other brands, whereas typically it has been 100% full of brand new cars.  That shortage is pushing buyers into the used market, pushing up prices.

Currently, the chip shortage is expected to ease in early 2022, and I fully expect used car prices to come crashing down at that point.

Cadman

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2021, 10:50:56 AM »
The interesting thing is it's not just cars, it's boats and RV's as well. The father of a friend of ours just sold his 10-year old pontoon boat for over $10k more than what they bought it for. He loved the boat, but as he said, he'd be stupid for not taking the money.

Meanwhile, we continue to receive circulars in the mail from local RV dealers looking to add to their used stock (we have a small travel trailer). A quick google search shows the average price of used rec vehicles is up $15k year over year. Yikes.

StartingEarly

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2021, 12:38:03 PM »
Well, first generation Insights go up when gas prices rise so it would make sense the Prius would as well. They're practically selling for scrap when gas is under $2 but they spike up pretty high when it goes over $3, go figure.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2021, 01:00:46 PM »
To all of you saying ďIíd sell but I like the carĒ I suggest looking at the amount of money invested, the amount of risk youíd have to take, and the amount of time required to obtain those thousands of dollars from your investment portfolio during typical times. Now is a better time than ever to sell something for 10k that youíll be able to buy back for $5k in 12 months. There are no halfway safe investments in the world that can touch that kind of ROI. If one could only solve their transportation requirements for the next 12 months without car ownership (I.e. Uber, carpool, bike, ebike, scooter, walk/jog, bus, movingÖ). These savings could compound beyond the next year once you figure out how to live with one less car.

Another way to think of it: Would you hold an investment that had just gone up in a bubble and was certainly about to plummet in value? Thatís our cars right now. We should be selling while others are buying.

PDXTabs

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2021, 01:07:59 PM »
That's not antimustachian. That's supply and demand.

As soon as the chip shortage is resolved, these consumers are going to get toasted by depreciation.

Maybe they need a car now and not in two years.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2021, 01:11:35 PM by PDXTabs »

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #11 on: June 25, 2021, 02:16:13 PM »
That's not antimustachian. That's supply and demand.

As soon as the chip shortage is resolved, these consumers are going to get toasted by depreciation.

Maybe they need a car now and not in two years.
Both can be true.  In our case, though, the benefit-per-dollar has degraded our car purchase from "need" to "want."

Paul der Krake

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #12 on: June 25, 2021, 02:24:23 PM »
Yeah, this is the wrong section.

Supply chains trouble and supply/demand imbalance lead to inflated prices. I'm all for mocking Americans' idiotic car indulgences, but this seems like a weird way to do it.

Bloop Bloop Reloaded

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2021, 08:29:21 PM »
Bought my car for $103,000 over four years ago. Currently on the classified's there's a 1-year-older model with 30,000 more kilometres selling for $97,000 and a one-year newer model (with 7,000 fewer kilometres) selling for $112,000. So essentially no depreciation over four years of ownership.

Bloop Bloop Reloaded

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2021, 08:31:18 PM »
By the way I do think that it's buyers' fault that used car values are so high. There is no reason to be buying a car at all - new or used - during this time. I accept that sometimes it's genuinely out of necessity (you need a car to access a job or medical care, and your old car has broken down during covid) but other than those outlier cases, it's entirely the buyer's fault for entering the market at a time when prices are inflated. It's not going to kill you to defer these hedonic, lifestyle purchases for 18 months (or even 5 years, or even 10 years) until covid inflation washes away. That's what I plan to do - I sure as heck am not buying a car anytime soon.

JLee

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #15 on: June 25, 2021, 11:06:38 PM »
By the way I do think that it's buyers' fault that used car values are so high. There is no reason to be buying a car at all - new or used - during this time. I accept that sometimes it's genuinely out of necessity (you need a car to access a job or medical care, and your old car has broken down during covid) but other than those outlier cases, it's entirely the buyer's fault for entering the market at a time when prices are inflated. It's not going to kill you to defer these hedonic, lifestyle purchases for 18 months (or even 5 years, or even 10 years) until covid inflation washes away. That's what I plan to do - I sure as heck am not buying a car anytime soon.

I think you and your $100k car are not representative of the normal used car buying population. ďJust donít buy a car for ten yearsĒ isnít a reasonable proposition for many people.

I donít know what the exact words are and Iím too tired to come up with them, but as I have family limping a work vehicle along (contractor) past the point it should be replaced and youíre talking about how your $100,000 car is still worth a lot, you donít really have the right or the perspective to be lecturing what normal people should or shouldnít need to do.

Bloop Bloop Reloaded

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #16 on: June 25, 2021, 11:17:52 PM »
I do have the right and perspective. Otherwise, if you are going to say that financially comfortable people shouldn't be criticising "normal people's" spending choices, then the whole sub-forum that we're in needs to be nuked.

As for the rest of your "tired" post, I've already made an exception for people who have good reason to need to replace their cars. Unless you are going to tell me that all these consumers buying $30,000 (average new car price) cars fall into this category, and that for some reason they all need a $30,000 car to boot, your argument is entirely specious. Perhaps get some rest and then reflect on it.


middo

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2021, 12:50:49 AM »
We had a car die about 10 months ago.  The engine in it went, and it wasn't economic to rebuild it.  We got it towed away and moved on.  It only cost us $3000 a few years earlier and was old.  It owed us nothing.  However, we started to look for replacements and decided we could live with one car and a motorbike for a while.  Winter is making that choice harder, but not hard enough to pay stupid $ for a car that will get used on cold wet rainy days only.

Model96

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2021, 01:15:08 AM »
Almost half a million expatriate citizens have returned to Australia since the Covid era started, effectively doubling or tripling the usual immigration rate. This good reason has pushed up the cost of all vehicles new and used in general. Any van, 4wd or AWD SUV has increased even more due to increased demand for local self drive holidays.
I was lucky to notice fairly early, and 'swapped out' our Subaru Forester for another that was 5 years younger with half the mileage for no cost to us.

JLee

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2021, 12:27:47 PM »
By the way I do think that it's buyers' fault that used car values are so high. There is no reason to be buying a car at all - new or used - during this time. I accept that sometimes it's genuinely out of necessity (you need a car to access a job or medical care, and your old car has broken down during covid) but other than those outlier cases, it's entirely the buyer's fault for entering the market at a time when prices are inflated. It's not going to kill you to defer these hedonic, lifestyle purchases for 18 months (or even 5 years, or even 10 years) until covid inflation washes away. That's what I plan to do - I sure as heck am not buying a car anytime soon.
I do have the right and perspective. Otherwise, if you are going to say that financially comfortable people shouldn't be criticising "normal people's" spending choices, then the whole sub-forum that we're in needs to be nuked.

As for the rest of your "tired" post, I've already made an exception for people who have good reason to need to replace their cars. Unless you are going to tell me that all these consumers buying $30,000 (average new car price) cars fall into this category, and that for some reason they all need a $30,000 car to boot, your argument is entirely specious. Perhaps get some rest and then reflect on it.

Used car prices are high across the board, not just late models.  There are many reasons to buy a car that are not "hedonic lifestyle purchases," but given you're rolling around in a $103,000 car I suspect you're detached from the reality that is many lower income people's lives. In any case, since you started this post out by contradicting yourself, there's really no point in trying to have a discussion about it.

Incidentally, the average new car price in the US is $40,472.  I don't know where you got $30k from, but it's wrong.

Model96

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #20 on: June 26, 2021, 05:17:20 PM »
By the way I do think that it's buyers' fault that used car values are so high. There is no reason to be buying a car at all - new or used - during this time. I accept that sometimes it's genuinely out of necessity (you need a car to access a job or medical care, and your old car has broken down during covid) but other than those outlier cases, it's entirely the buyer's fault for entering the market at a time when prices are inflated. It's not going to kill you to defer these hedonic, lifestyle purchases for 18 months (or even 5 years, or even 10 years) until covid inflation washes away. That's what I plan to do - I sure as heck am not buying a car anytime soon.
I do have the right and perspective. Otherwise, if you are going to say that financially comfortable people shouldn't be criticising "normal people's" spending choices, then the whole sub-forum that we're in needs to be nuked.

As for the rest of your "tired" post, I've already made an exception for people who have good reason to need to replace their cars. Unless you are going to tell me that all these consumers buying $30,000 (average new car price) cars fall into this category, and that for some reason they all need a $30,000 car to boot, your argument is entirely specious. Perhaps get some rest and then reflect on it.

Used car prices are high across the board, not just late models.  There are many reasons to buy a car that are not "hedonic lifestyle purchases," but given you're rolling around in a $103,000 car I suspect you're detached from the reality that is many lower income people's lives. In any case, since you started this post out by contradicting yourself, there's really no point in trying to have a discussion about it.

Incidentally, the average new car price in the US is $40,472.  I don't know where you got $30k from, but it's wrong.

JLee, you might not have realised that BloopBloopReloaded lives in Australia where the cost of cars looks like double price due to taxes and exchange rate, compared to the USA. A car costing AUD$103K in Oz can be bought for less than US$50K in the USA, which may bring that price closer to 'normal' in your mind.

ender

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #21 on: June 26, 2021, 05:26:54 PM »
We bought a brand new car in 2016 (Ford Escape) for $16,500 + tax/title/reg. It was listed around $20,500 at the dealer - we hit some great Ford incentives.

A month ago, I traded it in because I got an offer from Carvana for $16,280 with about 45k miles.

It's listed for sale for $19k right now at a dealer we traded it in at (who matched Carvana effectively).

Kinda nuts out there. I was happy to trade that car in for a Camry.


Bloop Bloop Reloaded

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #22 on: June 26, 2021, 08:02:11 PM »
By the way I do think that it's buyers' fault that used car values are so high. There is no reason to be buying a car at all - new or used - during this time. I accept that sometimes it's genuinely out of necessity (you need a car to access a job or medical care, and your old car has broken down during covid) but other than those outlier cases, it's entirely the buyer's fault for entering the market at a time when prices are inflated. It's not going to kill you to defer these hedonic, lifestyle purchases for 18 months (or even 5 years, or even 10 years) until covid inflation washes away. That's what I plan to do - I sure as heck am not buying a car anytime soon.
I do have the right and perspective. Otherwise, if you are going to say that financially comfortable people shouldn't be criticising "normal people's" spending choices, then the whole sub-forum that we're in needs to be nuked.

As for the rest of your "tired" post, I've already made an exception for people who have good reason to need to replace their cars. Unless you are going to tell me that all these consumers buying $30,000 (average new car price) cars fall into this category, and that for some reason they all need a $30,000 car to boot, your argument is entirely specious. Perhaps get some rest and then reflect on it.

Used car prices are high across the board, not just late models.  There are many reasons to buy a car that are not "hedonic lifestyle purchases," but given you're rolling around in a $103,000 car I suspect you're detached from the reality that is many lower income people's lives. In any case, since you started this post out by contradicting yourself, there's really no point in trying to have a discussion about it.

Incidentally, the average new car price in the US is $40,472.  I don't know where you got $30k from, but it's wrong.

Even if it's true that I'm not up to date with poor people's lives, etc, that doesn't mean that I'm wrong in what I'm saying. Particularly if the average new car price is $40k, which is a ridiculous amount of money (it translates to about $70k in Australian car prices due to our taxes here).

I have no sympathy for people who drop $40k or whatever on a car and then whinge about finances. It's ridiculous and it shows how stupid a lot of car buyers are.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2021, 08:04:29 PM by Bloop Bloop Reloaded »

PDXTabs

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #23 on: June 28, 2021, 02:55:01 PM »
I accept that sometimes it's genuinely out of necessity (you need a car to access a job or medical care, and your old car has broken down during covid) but other than those outlier cases, it's entirely the buyer's fault for entering the market at a time when prices are inflated.

Literally everyone I know car shopping right now is a person that lives in a rural area and needs it to get to work. I don't know a single person that is looking to buy a car right now just for fun.

PDXTabs

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #24 on: June 28, 2021, 02:58:37 PM »
Even if it's true that I'm not up to date with poor people's lives, etc, that doesn't mean that I'm wrong in what I'm saying. Particularly if the average new car price is $40k, which is a ridiculous amount of money (it translates to about $70k in Australian car prices due to our taxes here).

I have no sympathy for people who drop $40k or whatever on a car and then whinge about finances. It's ridiculous and it shows how stupid a lot of car buyers are.

People love to point out that buying a new car is dumb if you can't afford it, and that's true.

It's also true that these folks are the only reason that there are so many good used cars on the road.

Chris22

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #25 on: June 28, 2021, 04:11:27 PM »
I accept that sometimes it's genuinely out of necessity (you need a car to access a job or medical care, and your old car has broken down during covid) but other than those outlier cases, it's entirely the buyer's fault for entering the market at a time when prices are inflated.

Literally everyone I know car shopping right now is a person that lives in a rural area and needs it to get to work. I don't know a single person that is looking to buy a car right now just for fun.

Wife and I are both getting (maybe) new cars.

I ordered mine from the factory and was able to get a good deal (9% off MSRP) plus favorable lease terms since the manufacturer is pushing PHEVs.

My wife is getting the run around and Iím not quite sure why she needs one but I donít argue with her. She is likely going to pay sticker minus some token amount.

We are going to make out fantastic on her old car (every week I check Carvana and the offer goes up on her old one) so I guess there is that. Mine is a lease to replace my expiring lease so I do ďneedĒ a new vehicle.

Sugaree

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #26 on: September 08, 2021, 08:45:20 AM »
I absolutely believe it.  If I were to replace my Jeep today, the closest model to what I currently have (same year, same trim package, roughly same mileage, different color) is listed on Autotempest for $300 less than what I paid OTD 3.5 years and 50k miles ago.  Granted, that particular vehicle held its value fairly well even in the before times, and maybe I overpaid at Carmax, but that's crazy. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #27 on: September 09, 2021, 09:15:10 PM »
Some friends of ours decided to sell their 07 Toyota FJ Cruiser this summer after having it for over 10 years and well over 100k miles added, they got within $2k of what they paid for it over 10 years ago. 

Car Jack

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #28 on: September 10, 2021, 08:11:44 AM »
I've been given an offer from the local Subaru dealer for my 19 Crosstrek premium with no options.  Talking with them, they gave me a range of $22,950 to $25,950 depending on condition.  I paid $22k even for it new 2 years ago.

The shortages are more than just chips.  As explained on a work call (I work for one of those semi companies), our VP explained that other industries shifted gears.  Plastics houses needed business, so instead of making car door panels and buttons and center consoles, they quickly re-tooled and started producing blister packs and other retail packaging.  Now, the car companies are again trying to start up and the plastics houses are saying "why would we switch back?  We make better margin on these replacement business products".  Auto companies are famously good negotiators, demanding quarterly price reductions.  LOTS of industries are using this with the new business they have found and giving the car companies a big F U to their low margin, high stress business.

I know that Ford Broncos are stacked up for both chips and problems with removable roofs.  Porsches are waiting for a stupid dome light.  And yes, they hold up an entire car delivery over one part.  I'm sure you've all heard that options listed on the sale sheet are no longer available because, you know, when you need 114 microprocessors in a car and the cross traffic warning and lane keep need 4.....they can apply those 4 to get more cars out the door.

Also, Renesas had a fab fire.  Renesas is a Japanese IC producer.  The damage has been repaired but of course, they need to start from scratch on products, so expect this to affect Japanese cars largely.

As with the tsunami in Japan in 2011, where lots of car manufacturers were under water, car prices rose including used.  I'm particularly in tune with Subaru and owners started attaching much higher values to their cars, thinking that the car was somehow special.  It wasn't special, it became harder to come by because new car manufacturing stopped for months.  The effect lasted for a decade and still is in place.  I don't think you're going to all of a sudden see prices drop.  Say that chips and everything else comes into good supply.  Ok...some companies like Ford and Porsche have cars stacked up, but a lot of factories simply shut down.  When they start up, they are not going to have months of inventory waiting to bolt in the ECU and away they go.  I really think we've stepped up pricing and it's not going down....possibly ever.

So if you have an offer like I do (and I have an extra car I could use if I sold my Crosstrek), you need to think about the future.  Will you need to buy a replacement car in a couple years?   If you would, and you have a car in good repair, I'd keep it.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #29 on: September 10, 2021, 09:17:10 AM »
I've been given an offer from the local Subaru dealer for my 19 Crosstrek premium with no options.  Talking with them, they gave me a range of $22,950 to $25,950 depending on condition.  I paid $22k even for it new 2 years ago.

The shortages are more than just chips.  As explained on a work call (I work for one of those semi companies), our VP explained that other industries shifted gears.  Plastics houses needed business, so instead of making car door panels and buttons and center consoles, they quickly re-tooled and started producing blister packs and other retail packaging.  Now, the car companies are again trying to start up and the plastics houses are saying "why would we switch back?  We make better margin on these replacement business products".  Auto companies are famously good negotiators, demanding quarterly price reductions.  LOTS of industries are using this with the new business they have found and giving the car companies a big F U to their low margin, high stress business.

I know that Ford Broncos are stacked up for both chips and problems with removable roofs.  Porsches are waiting for a stupid dome light.  And yes, they hold up an entire car delivery over one part.  I'm sure you've all heard that options listed on the sale sheet are no longer available because, you know, when you need 114 microprocessors in a car and the cross traffic warning and lane keep need 4.....they can apply those 4 to get more cars out the door.

Also, Renesas had a fab fire.  Renesas is a Japanese IC producer.  The damage has been repaired but of course, they need to start from scratch on products, so expect this to affect Japanese cars largely.

As with the tsunami in Japan in 2011, where lots of car manufacturers were under water, car prices rose including used.  I'm particularly in tune with Subaru and owners started attaching much higher values to their cars, thinking that the car was somehow special.  It wasn't special, it became harder to come by because new car manufacturing stopped for months.  The effect lasted for a decade and still is in place.  I don't think you're going to all of a sudden see prices drop.  Say that chips and everything else comes into good supply.  Ok...some companies like Ford and Porsche have cars stacked up, but a lot of factories simply shut down.  When they start up, they are not going to have months of inventory waiting to bolt in the ECU and away they go.  I really think we've stepped up pricing and it's not going down....possibly ever.

So if you have an offer like I do (and I have an extra car I could use if I sold my Crosstrek), you need to think about the future.  Will you need to buy a replacement car in a couple years?   If you would, and you have a car in good repair, I'd keep it.
^This implies that a lot of TQM/Lean/6 Sigma quality programs that took years to develop have suddenly been disrupted, and vendors who are brand new at making car parts are now sitting on contracts to make car parts as fast as possible. If that's the case, we can expect a huge batch of quality issues for cars manufactured between 2020-2025. If the market has any logic, maybe the thought is that a 2018 model is worth more than a 2021 model because the 2018 model will be more reliable and durable?

In the bigger picture, maybe this is how the pandemic swings customer preferences toward electric cars, which have many fewer parts to fail and will probably get a reputation for exceeding the reliability of ICE vehicles.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #30 on: September 10, 2021, 03:22:14 PM »
I've been given an offer from the local Subaru dealer for my 19 Crosstrek premium with no options.  Talking with them, they gave me a range of $22,950 to $25,950 depending on condition.  I paid $22k even for it new 2 years ago.

The shortages are more than just chips.  As explained on a work call (I work for one of those semi companies), our VP explained that other industries shifted gears.  Plastics houses needed business, so instead of making car door panels and buttons and center consoles, they quickly re-tooled and started producing blister packs and other retail packaging.  Now, the car companies are again trying to start up and the plastics houses are saying "why would we switch back?  We make better margin on these replacement business products".  Auto companies are famously good negotiators, demanding quarterly price reductions.  LOTS of industries are using this with the new business they have found and giving the car companies a big F U to their low margin, high stress business.

I know that Ford Broncos are stacked up for both chips and problems with removable roofs.  Porsches are waiting for a stupid dome light.  And yes, they hold up an entire car delivery over one part.  I'm sure you've all heard that options listed on the sale sheet are no longer available because, you know, when you need 114 microprocessors in a car and the cross traffic warning and lane keep need 4.....they can apply those 4 to get more cars out the door.

Also, Renesas had a fab fire.  Renesas is a Japanese IC producer.  The damage has been repaired but of course, they need to start from scratch on products, so expect this to affect Japanese cars largely.

As with the tsunami in Japan in 2011, where lots of car manufacturers were under water, car prices rose including used.  I'm particularly in tune with Subaru and owners started attaching much higher values to their cars, thinking that the car was somehow special.  It wasn't special, it became harder to come by because new car manufacturing stopped for months.  The effect lasted for a decade and still is in place.  I don't think you're going to all of a sudden see prices drop.  Say that chips and everything else comes into good supply.  Ok...some companies like Ford and Porsche have cars stacked up, but a lot of factories simply shut down.  When they start up, they are not going to have months of inventory waiting to bolt in the ECU and away they go.  I really think we've stepped up pricing and it's not going down....possibly ever.

So if you have an offer like I do (and I have an extra car I could use if I sold my Crosstrek), you need to think about the future.  Will you need to buy a replacement car in a couple years?   If you would, and you have a car in good repair, I'd keep it.
^This implies that a lot of TQM/Lean/6 Sigma quality programs that took years to develop have suddenly been disrupted, and vendors who are brand new at making car parts are now sitting on contracts to make car parts as fast as possible. If that's the case, we can expect a huge batch of quality issues for cars manufactured between 2020-2025. If the market has any logic, maybe the thought is that a 2018 model is worth more than a 2021 model because the 2018 model will be more reliable and durable?

In the bigger picture, maybe this is how the pandemic swings customer preferences toward electric cars, which have many fewer parts to fail and will probably get a reputation for exceeding the reliability of ICE vehicles.

Not sure thatís going to be a driving force, electric cars have a lot fewer *moving* parts, not necessarily much less in terms of overall parts though

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #31 on: September 10, 2021, 08:06:56 PM »
Not sure thatís going to be a driving force, electric cars have a lot fewer *moving* parts, not necessarily much less in terms of overall parts though
It's all the moving parts, and the ones that are subjected to high stresses, high temperatures, large pressure and temperature swings, and vibration that go bad.  We have two cars with a combined ~450,000 miles, and we've driven the last 260,000 of those miles.  What have I replaced?  Exhaust, starter, ignition coil, distributor cap, rotor, spark plug wires, alternator, radiator, window motors, sliding door cables, door handles, motor mounts, various suspension components, brakes, various fluids, water pump, timing belt, windshield, various gaskets and seals, a drive axle or two, spark plugs, CV and tie rod boots, and the mechanical part of the CD player.

Most of that list goes away with an electric car, and that nothing on that list is solid state.

EDIT: Actually, I have had to replace *one* solid state thing--the resistor pack on the blower.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #32 on: September 10, 2021, 09:25:54 PM »
Not sure thatís going to be a driving force, electric cars have a lot fewer *moving* parts, not necessarily much less in terms of overall parts though
It's all the moving parts, and the ones that are subjected to high stresses, high temperatures, large pressure and temperature swings, and vibration that go bad.  We have two cars with a combined ~450,000 miles, and we've driven the last 260,000 of those miles.  What have I replaced?  Exhaust, starter, ignition coil, distributor cap, rotor, spark plug wires, alternator, radiator, window motors, sliding door cables, door handles, motor mounts, various suspension components, brakes, various fluids, water pump, timing belt, windshield, various gaskets and seals, a drive axle or two, spark plugs, CV and tie rod boots, and the mechanical part of the CD player.

Most of that list goes away with an electric car, and that nothing on that list is solid state.

EDIT: Actually, I have had to replace *one* solid state thing--the resistor pack on the blower.

This aligns with my experience too, except I'll add that a lot of electrical components fail too. For example, power windows tend to go kaput on GM cars after several years of ownership. Alternators often go bad at about 140k. Ford infotainment systems were notorious about a decade ago. And if you have a convertible with a power top, just don't keep it too long.

But the thing is, all these cars had all these electrical problems PLUS all the ICE-specific problems like water pumps, timing belts, head gaskets, starters, exhaust systems, various bearings and oil seals, etc. If electrical problems and mechanical problems were 50/50 in frequency, you could in theory create an all-electric car that is close to twice as reliable as an ICE car. In reality, I suspect non-electronic failures are far more frequent than electronic failures - maybe more like 75%. When your car breaks down, it usually has something to do with the ICE.

My connection that I didn't spell out very clearly was that if all cars suddenly became less reliable, the reduction in reliability would be worse for ICE cars than for the simpler battery cars because they by default have more ways to go wrong. There are simply more ways to screw up a gasoline engine than an electric motor plus battery pack.

dragoncar

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #33 on: September 11, 2021, 02:29:51 AM »
So when will be a good time to buy a car?  We ďneedĒ two new cars pretty soon*.  I can hold out a year or two but how can we know there wonít be ripple effects for a decade?  Is there any plausible indication of when to pull the trigger?

*two old cars that will soon need repairs that far exceed the value of the car.  Right now all my frugality is biting me in the ass because my shit is aging out and Iím needing to buy new cars/appliances at the absolute worst time.  Not that itís a priori the wrong choice to use up durable goods, just tha my Iíd be Better off if I replaced everything three years ago instead of trying to eke out every last bit of life
« Last Edit: September 11, 2021, 02:33:22 AM by dragoncar »

iluvzbeach

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #34 on: September 11, 2021, 11:20:13 AM »
@dragoncar We were in the same position you describe and two weeks ago decided to bite the bullet and buy a new car. Our previous vehicle (2005 Honda Pilot) had been ours since new and had been a terrific car. It had over 200K miles and we knew lots of high dollar maintenance on the horizon (another timing belt & water pump replacement, alignment, new tires, suspension, etc.), without any guarantee that there wouldnít be A/C, alternator, radiator or transmission issues that would pop up.

We donít feel that new car prices will go down; in fact, we think theyíll continue to climb. Inventory is low right now, without any signs of improving, and we didnít want to be in a position where something major came up with the Pilot and there was nothing of interest to choose from as far as replacement goes. So, we bought a 2021 Honda Passport and sold the Pilot to someone for far more than we ever expected. All in all, weíre happy with our decision.

skuzuker28

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #35 on: September 11, 2021, 04:42:45 PM »
So when will be a good time to buy a car?  We ďneedĒ two new cars pretty soon*.  I can hold out a year or two but how can we know there wonít be ripple effects for a decade?  Is there any plausible indication of when to pull the trigger?

*two old cars that will soon need repairs that far exceed the value of the car.  Right now all my frugality is biting me in the ass because my shit is aging out and Iím needing to buy new cars/appliances at the absolute worst time.  Not that itís a priori the wrong choice to use up durable goods, just tha my Iíd be Better off if I replaced everything three years ago instead of trying to eke out every last bit of life
Are you looking at "new" or "new to you"?  If new, I'd probably lean to sooner rather than later.  From what I've been hearing it will take until 2023-2024 for inventory to return to "normal" levels, plus everything is getting more expensive.  TSMC (a major semiconductor fabricator) is raising prices on mature nodes by up to 30%, which will raise the price of pretty much everything through the supply chain.

If you are looking for "new to you" I might be inclined to wait.  Hard to imagine used prices going much higher, and as the "new" supply increases that should decrease prices in the used market.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #36 on: September 11, 2021, 07:07:02 PM »
So when will be a good time to buy a car?  We ďneedĒ two new cars pretty soon*.  I can hold out a year or two but how can we know there wonít be ripple effects for a decade?  Is there any plausible indication of when to pull the trigger?

*two old cars that will soon need repairs that far exceed the value of the car.  Right now all my frugality is biting me in the ass because my shit is aging out and Iím needing to buy new cars/appliances at the absolute worst time.  Not that itís a priori the wrong choice to use up durable goods, just tha my Iíd be Better off if I replaced everything three years ago instead of trying to eke out every last bit of life
We're in the same boat--both of our cars are over 200,000 miles, and although I do 90% of our own car work, the combination of age and living in an area with salted roads means that I've had to do a whole lot of suspension work over the past year, and it's getting old. :)

NorCal

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #37 on: September 11, 2021, 09:17:48 PM »
Some people just need a car now. I have a neighbor whose car was totaled in an accident. She just flew to Omaha because thatís where she could find the used car that met her needs.

Donít forget that thousands of cars just got flooded in a hurricane too. Lots of people are looking for whatever cars they can find.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2021, 05:17:11 AM by NorCal »

dragoncar

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #38 on: September 11, 2021, 11:08:19 PM »
So when will be a good time to buy a car?  We ďneedĒ two new cars pretty soon*.  I can hold out a year or two but how can we know there wonít be ripple effects for a decade?  Is there any plausible indication of when to pull the trigger?

*two old cars that will soon need repairs that far exceed the value of the car.  Right now all my frugality is biting me in the ass because my shit is aging out and Iím needing to buy new cars/appliances at the absolute worst time.  Not that itís a priori the wrong choice to use up durable goods, just tha my Iíd be Better off if I replaced everything three years ago instead of trying to eke out every last bit of life
Are you looking at "new" or "new to you"?  If new, I'd probably lean to sooner rather than later.  From what I've been hearing it will take until 2023-2024 for inventory to return to "normal" levels, plus everything is getting more expensive.  TSMC (a major semiconductor fabricator) is raising prices on mature nodes by up to 30%, which will raise the price of pretty much everything through the supply chain.

If you are looking for "new to you" I might be inclined to wait.  Hard to imagine used prices going much higher, and as the "new" supply increases that should decrease prices in the used market.

Iím happy with either option as long as the value is right (brand new and keep it forever knowing itís always been well cared for, or used if I can get an appropriate discount to new)

What I really want is an electric or plug in hybrid minivan, which there is only one on the market right now.  Unfortunately I canít wait a few years for Toyota to make a sienna prime so I was thinking Iíd buy a used sienna or odyssey until EV comes to minivans.  But then I started hearing used prices are all elevated and I donít want to be the sucker paying transitory high prices.  I can still hold out but it means traveling with two cars which is not exactly mustachian either

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #39 on: September 12, 2021, 07:13:56 PM »
So when will be a good time to buy a car?  We ďneedĒ two new cars pretty soon*.  I can hold out a year or two but how can we know there wonít be ripple effects for a decade?  Is there any plausible indication of when to pull the trigger?

*two old cars that will soon need repairs that far exceed the value of the car.  Right now all my frugality is biting me in the ass because my shit is aging out and Iím needing to buy new cars/appliances at the absolute worst time.  Not that itís a priori the wrong choice to use up durable goods, just tha my Iíd be Better off if I replaced everything three years ago instead of trying to eke out every last bit of life
Are you looking at "new" or "new to you"?  If new, I'd probably lean to sooner rather than later.  From what I've been hearing it will take until 2023-2024 for inventory to return to "normal" levels, plus everything is getting more expensive.  TSMC (a major semiconductor fabricator) is raising prices on mature nodes by up to 30%, which will raise the price of pretty much everything through the supply chain.

If you are looking for "new to you" I might be inclined to wait.  Hard to imagine used prices going much higher, and as the "new" supply increases that should decrease prices in the used market.

Iím happy with either option as long as the value is right (brand new and keep it forever knowing itís always been well cared for, or used if I can get an appropriate discount to new)

What I really want is an electric or plug in hybrid minivan, which there is only one on the market right now.  Unfortunately I canít wait a few years for Toyota to make a sienna prime so I was thinking Iíd buy a used sienna or odyssey until EV comes to minivans.  But then I started hearing used prices are all elevated and I donít want to be the sucker paying transitory high prices.  I can still hold out but it means traveling with two cars which is not exactly mustachian either
The high prices on used minivans are no joke.  We bought our current minivan about 7 years ago. It was 8 years old, and had 90,000 miles on it.  We paid just under $10k for it.  Vans of the same model year and the same mileage are now going for...about the same price.

I was pretty excited about Toyota's new hybrid minivan, right up until the moment I drove it.  I hate to say it, but the interior is atrociously impractical.  It's like they let the art students design the interior, and never bothered to consult any soccer moms.  The 8th seat (/jump seat/plus one/middle+middle seat) has so little padding you can feel the frame digging into your backside.  The ma-hoo-ssive center console eliminates a huge amount (several cubic feet!) of prime storage space for long road trips.  The front seat arm rests can't be flipped up.  We couldn't find a way to turn off the giant screen (and the salesperson, who was admittedly new to the brand, didn't know how).  The 3rd row seat bottom is missing its corners, I'm guessing because of how the seats fold down into the cargo area, and so the rear seats aren't comfortable.  And the 2nd row seats can't be removed easily (they have sensors for the airbags), so it's a lot harder to haul plywood or other large items.

In other words, it has all the (im)practicality of an SUV, but with sliding doors.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #40 on: September 13, 2021, 06:24:41 AM »
So when will be a good time to buy a car?  We ďneedĒ two new cars pretty soon*.  I can hold out a year or two but how can we know there wonít be ripple effects for a decade?  Is there any plausible indication of when to pull the trigger?

*two old cars that will soon need repairs that far exceed the value of the car.  Right now all my frugality is biting me in the ass because my shit is aging out and Iím needing to buy new cars/appliances at the absolute worst time.  Not that itís a priori the wrong choice to use up durable goods, just tha my Iíd be Better off if I replaced everything three years ago instead of trying to eke out every last bit of life

Try to think more like a Cuban. That is the right answer.

spartana

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #41 on: September 13, 2021, 08:17:37 AM »
So when will be a good time to buy a car?  We “need” two new cars pretty soon*.  I can hold out a year or two but how can we know there won’t be ripple effects for a decade?  Is there any plausible indication of when to pull the trigger?

*two old cars that will soon need repairs that far exceed the value of the car.  Right now all my frugality is biting me in the ass because my shit is aging out and I’m needing to buy new cars/appliances at the absolute worst time.  Not that it’s a priori the wrong choice to use up durable goods, just tha my I’d be Better off if I replaced everything three years ago instead of trying to eke out every last bit of life
Are you looking at "new" or "new to you"?  If new, I'd probably lean to sooner rather than later.  From what I've been hearing it will take until 2023-2024 for inventory to return to "normal" levels, plus everything is getting more expensive.  TSMC (a major semiconductor fabricator) is raising prices on mature nodes by up to 30%, which will raise the price of pretty much everything through the supply chain.

If you are looking for "new to you" I might be inclined to wait.  Hard to imagine used prices going much higher, and as the "new" supply increases that should decrease prices in the used market.

I’m happy with either option as long as the value is right (brand new and keep it forever knowing it’s always been well cared for, or used if I can get an appropriate discount to new)

What I really want is an electric or plug in hybrid minivan, which there is only one on the market right now.  Unfortunately I can’t wait a few years for Toyota to make a sienna prime so I was thinking I’d buy a used sienna or odyssey until EV comes to minivans.  But then I started hearing used prices are all elevated and I don’t want to be the sucker paying transitory high prices.  I can still hold out but it means traveling with two cars which is not exactly mustachian either
The high prices on used minivans are no joke.  We bought our current minivan about 7 years ago. It was 8 years old, and had 90,000 miles on it.  We paid just under $10k for it.  Vans of the same model year and the same mileage are now going for...about the same price.

I was pretty excited about Toyota's new hybrid minivan, right up until the moment I drove it.  I hate to say it, but the interior is atrociously impractical.  It's like they let the art students design the interior, and never bothered to consult any soccer moms.  The 8th seat (/jump seat/plus one/middle+middle seat) has so little padding you can feel the frame digging into your backside.  The ma-hoo-ssive center console eliminates a huge amount (several cubic feet!) of prime storage space for long road trips.  The front seat arm rests can't be flipped up.  We couldn't find a way to turn off the giant screen (and the salesperson, who was admittedly new to the brand, didn't know how).  The 3rd row seat bottom is missing its corners, I'm guessing because of how the seats fold down into the cargo area, and so the rear seats aren't comfortable.  And the 2nd row seats can't be removed easily (they have sensors for the airbags), so it's a lot harder to haul plywood or other large items.

In other words, it has all the (im)practicality of an SUV, but with sliding doors.
Oh how I wish I could find a mini van with 90k miles on it for under $10k! So far what Im seeing is around $17k - $20k for older high mileage mini vans. Just saw one with 85k miles on it for over $21k! UGH.

I sold my car in Dec 2019 and have been carless ever since. Have been looking very hard for a low mileage van (small cargo) or mini van the last couple of months and have given up so will look start looking at Suvs and small pick ups (need a larger vehicle for long term camping travel). Don't think I will have any luck so looks like I will be carless. Mainly PTF for any ideas.

I know my old truck (2001 Ranger extra cab with a shell) would sell for more now then for what I paid for it in 2007 (used) and for whatever it cost new.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2021, 08:20:15 AM by spartana »

Rural

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #42 on: September 15, 2021, 04:24:53 PM »
Posting to follow as husband's old truck is developing a new and interesting problem on a weekly basis. So far we've been able to repair, but it's a '97 and the new fun issue is an electrical issue that means randomly there are no headlights or windshield wipers.

Darian

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #43 on: September 15, 2021, 05:37:10 PM »
It's costing us $2000 to ship our compact 5-seater across the country when it cost $1500 a year ago for a much larger minivan to and from the exact same locations. I think the auto shortage is the reason. A lot more people deciding it's worth it to ship their car when before they would have just gotten rid of it and bought a new one.

boarder42

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #44 on: September 15, 2021, 05:51:08 PM »
This is why I'm reserving the most popular EVs pre market.  Should get an f150 lightning in the first run off 15k. Bet I can sell one MSRP and pocket the tax credit. Same situation with the cyber truck I'll get one in oct 2023. Likely just pick which one I like better and sell the other if the Tesla drives itself at that point it will win bc I have fsd linked in at 7k and it will be o over 20k or only available at 250 a month at that point

Weisass

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #45 on: September 15, 2021, 08:29:13 PM »
It's costing us $2000 to ship our compact 5-seater across the country when it cost $1500 a year ago for a much larger minivan to and from the exact same locations. I think the auto shortage is the reason. A lot more people deciding it's worth it to ship their car when before they would have just gotten rid of it and bought a new one.

We were just quoted 1500 to ship a car from ca to paÖ.

caleb

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #46 on: September 16, 2021, 09:28:53 AM »

But who would have thought that a 6+ year old Prius would go up in value? :)

Are we now to a point where buying a used Toyota is facepunchable?

dragoncar

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #47 on: September 16, 2021, 04:19:37 PM »

But who would have thought that a 6+ year old Prius would go up in value? :)

Are we now to a point where buying a used Toyota is facepunchable?

You can get a used Toy yoda pretty cheap


shuffler

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #48 on: September 16, 2021, 05:02:43 PM »
You can get a used Toy yoda pretty cheap
Yeah, but it's selling for more than when it was new.

dragoncar

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Re: Some used vehicles are selling for more now than when they were new
« Reply #49 on: September 16, 2021, 05:10:07 PM »
You can get a used Toy yoda pretty cheap
Yeah, but it's selling for more than when it was new.

So is VTSAX