Author Topic: Overheard at Work  (Read 13253398 times)

RyanAtTanagra

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1316
  • Location: Sierra Mountains
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14900 on: September 16, 2016, 11:29:21 AM »
Regarding a 100 year flood zone and a 30 year mortgage, the odds of the house flooding while being owned by the bank is 30%. I know it's obvious when it's spelled out, but most people don't put two and two together. They only are unhappy when the lender requires them to purchase flood insurance.

It doesn't quite work out like that.  If you own a house for 100 years you don't have 100% chance of it flooding.  Just like if you roll a die once, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, but two rolls doesn't equal 2/6 odds, or else 6 rolls would be 6/6 (100%) chance of rolling a 6.

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9918
  • Registered member
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14901 on: September 16, 2016, 11:33:57 AM »
We've had two 1/500 year floods here in the past 40 years, and about 3 1/100 year floods.
Indeed.  I've heard similar things often. 

And I'd question the accuracy not only due to data limitations, as mentioned above, but (even if those were all accurate and 100% known) due to the ability to project forward based on them, mostly due to the climate changing.

Quote
The new (proposed) 100 year flood zone would have put 1/4 of the city (including the national mall, any fed buildings and almost all of the SW quadrant underwater once every 100 years.

I think you all (and a lot of officials) fall for a common misconception here.
A 100 Year flood does not mean you get a flood every 100 years. It means the HIGHEST flood in 100 years is this amount.
There is nothing in this statistic saying you cant have 3 100-year floods (3 times the water gets that high) in one year. Or 50 times a 99year-high flood in 100 years.

My 2 cents: If you want a realistic danger, go for the 10 or at most 20 year flood. 20 year is what german drainage in cities is build for btw. And about once a month a city is flooded because the drainage cant keep up. Because there is more then 1 city.

GOOD point.  Bottom line is you can't really predict this stuff ... You can look at historical records but it's really hard to make odds on black swans.  Insurance companies try, but I'm not convinced they do a great job

o2bfree

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 271
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14902 on: September 16, 2016, 03:00:11 PM »
I have a van, and I am starting to see more and more that trucks serve no really useful purpose- that is, intrinsic to trucks and exempt from all other types of vehicles...

A van, YES! We love our 1996 Savana. It's daily transportation, it can haul things, and it's awesome for road/camping/sports trips. It's got a full-sized bed in the back with storage underneath, and room to prepare food and make coffee roadside or on rainy evenings in the campground or rest stop. And, full-sized vans hold their value pretty well.

Those goofy, jacked-up trucks with their comically pompous tires make us laugh.

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14903 on: September 16, 2016, 03:23:45 PM »
Regarding a 100 year flood zone and a 30 year mortgage, the odds of the house flooding while being owned by the bank is 30%. I know it's obvious when it's spelled out, but most people don't put two and two together. They only are unhappy when the lender requires them to purchase flood insurance.

It doesn't quite work out like that.  If you own a house for 100 years you don't have 100% chance of it flooding.  Just like if you roll a die once, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, but two rolls doesn't equal 2/6 odds, or else 6 rolls would be 6/6 (100%) chance of rolling a 6.

Mustache Math!  :D It pervades this forum...

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9918
  • Registered member
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14904 on: September 16, 2016, 09:49:39 PM »
Regarding a 100 year flood zone and a 30 year mortgage, the odds of the house flooding while being owned by the bank is 30%. I know it's obvious when it's spelled out, but most people don't put two and two together. They only are unhappy when the lender requires them to purchase flood insurance.

It doesn't quite work out like that.  If you own a house for 100 years you don't have 100% chance of it flooding.  Just like if you roll a die once, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, but two rolls doesn't equal 2/6 odds, or else 6 rolls would be 6/6 (100%) chance of rolling a 6.

Mustache Math!  :D It pervades this forum...

That's not how it works, apparently, but if you have a 1/100 chance every year, then over 30 years you have a 26% chance, which is not that different from 30%.  So you can quibble about the calculations, but either way the bank is taking a big risk.

LennStar

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3672
  • Location: Germany
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14905 on: September 17, 2016, 12:30:42 PM »
We've had two 1/500 year floods here in the past 40 years, and about 3 1/100 year floods.
Indeed.  I've heard similar things often. 

And I'd question the accuracy not only due to data limitations, as mentioned above, but (even if those were all accurate and 100% known) due to the ability to project forward based on them, mostly due to the climate changing.

Quote
The new (proposed) 100 year flood zone would have put 1/4 of the city (including the national mall, any fed buildings and almost all of the SW quadrant underwater once every 100 years.

I think you all (and a lot of officials) fall for a common misconception here.
A 100 Year flood does not mean you get a flood every 100 years. It means the HIGHEST flood in 100 years is this amount.
There is nothing in this statistic saying you cant have 3 100-year floods (3 times the water gets that high) in one year. Or 50 times a 99year-high flood in 100 years.

My 2 cents: If you want a realistic danger, go for the 10 or at most 20 year flood. 20 year is what german drainage in cities is build for btw. And about once a month a city is flooded because the drainage cant keep up. Because there is more then 1 city.

GOOD point.  Bottom line is you can't really predict this stuff ... You can look at historical records but it's really hard to make odds on black swans.  Insurance companies try, but I'm not convinced they do a great job

Insurance compynies are really freaked out about climate change. (Yes, including those in the US, because its their money :D ) They calculate that at the end of the century they will have to pay a multiple because of natural desasters then today. Which they dont like, because they have to increase premium and that means that 1) less profit because the one who goes up first loses customers and 2) less profit because there will be people who cancel all those insurances.

btw here is a picture from my town, that often baffles people when they first see it
http://britische-huetehunde.de/picture_library/Landesgruppentreffen/2008/WanderungJanuar08/wand0801087.JPG
Its a bridge on the green, centuries old. Most years it just stands there and children play (on the other side is a playground)
But if there is a flood the water flows not only in the real river bed but also in the old one, around the old lower city, just at the line of the old city wall (which doubles as flood wall in those times, the parts that are still standing) and under that grass bridge. Like here:
http://www.mz-web.de/image/7751256/2x1/940/470/e59ab8ddc18d19bc12016c7f4d76eee0/Py/am-waldauer-anger--1294645914575-.jpg
This bridge is then the only way you can take if you dont want to drive 40-50km more.

Just a few years ago there was a really huge flood, the highest ever I think, where the water was so high that even the ends of that bridge were flooded - and parts of the lower city.   


merula

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1609
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14906 on: September 18, 2016, 04:55:29 PM »
Insurance compynies are really freaked out about climate change. (Yes, including those in the US, because its their money :D ) They calculate that at the end of the century they will have to pay a multiple because of natural desasters then today. Which they dont like, because they have to increase premium and that means that 1) less profit because the one who goes up first loses customers and 2) less profit because there will be people who cancel all those insurances.

This is absolutely true. I work in insurance.

Y'know the old Upton Sinclair quote "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it"? Well, there are more industries who depend on maintaining the illusion that climate change NOT happening (oil, automotive, plastics manufacturing, construction, real estate, etc. etc.) than industries that benefit if climate change is recognized and addressed (insurance, clean energy/technology).

Which is kinda weird, when you think about it, because there's not much else those two industries have in common, and frankly the general culture of insurance hasn't done well at addressing climate change, but we're doing better than most, precisely because we need to be able to predict the future in order to make money. We set the rates we charge for flood and wind insurance based on predictions from past events, but we recognize that the past events can't fully predict the future anymore.

TL;DR: Climate change is happening; you can tell because people who stand to lose money if we ignore it are saying so.


RetiredAt63

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *
  • Posts: 20712
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14907 on: September 18, 2016, 06:32:53 PM »

TL;DR: Climate change is happening; you can tell because people who stand to lose money if we ignore it are saying so.

I used to find more climate change information in the business section of the paper than the (almost non-existent) science section.  When a forestry company chooses which trees to use in its re-forestry projects it is making decisions based on projected climate change.

mustachepungoeshere

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2404
  • Location: Sydney, Oz
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14908 on: September 18, 2016, 09:05:18 PM »
Husband's (all-male) team got onto the subject of WAGs and spending last week*.

One of the guys complained that his live-in girlfriend (previously mentioned in this thread) buys at least one new lipstick each month. At a cost of $180 each.

More than $2k a year on lipstick.

When they first met, she gave him a tour of her shoes. "These were $1500, these were $500..." It was only after they moved in together that she 'fessed up to $30k in CC debt.

nnls

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1132
  • Location: Perth, AU
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14909 on: September 18, 2016, 09:08:22 PM »
Husband's (all-male) team got onto the subject of WAGs and spending last week*.

One of the guys complained that his live-in girlfriend (previously mentioned in this thread) buys at least one new lipstick each month. At a cost of $180 each.

More than $2k a year on lipstick.

When they first met, she gave him a tour of her shoes. "These were $1500, these were $500..." It was only after they moved in together that she 'fessed up to $30k in CC debt.

I dont think all my shoes combined would cost $500

nobodyspecial

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1464
  • Location: Land above the land of the free
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14910 on: September 18, 2016, 09:12:56 PM »
I dont think all my shoes combined would cost $500
Well that would be an awful lot of thongs !
 

Playing with Fire UK

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3449
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14911 on: September 18, 2016, 09:31:55 PM »
Regarding a 100 year flood zone and a 30 year mortgage, the odds of the house flooding while being owned by the bank is 30%. I know it's obvious when it's spelled out, but most people don't put two and two together. They only are unhappy when the lender requires them to purchase flood insurance.

It doesn't quite work out like that.  If you own a house for 100 years you don't have 100% chance of it flooding.  Just like if you roll a die once, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, but two rolls doesn't equal 2/6 odds, or else 6 rolls would be 6/6 (100%) chance of rolling a 6.

Mustache Math!  :D It pervades this forum...

That's not how it works, apparently, but if you have a 1/100 chance every year, then over 30 years you have a 26% chance, which is not that different from 30%.  So you can quibble about the calculations, but either way the bank is taking a big risk.

The other thing to remember is that when you draw the 100 year flood zone, the likelihood is only 1/100 years at the far extent of the zone, any closer to the river/low point and you're in a higher risk zone. So you could say that the river bank was 'in the 100 year flood zone' and it could flood every time it rains. Most places in a 100 year flood zone have a higher than 1/100 risk of flooding every year.

MrMoogle

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1136
  • Age: 38
  • Location: Huntsville, AL
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14912 on: September 19, 2016, 09:52:22 AM »
Regarding a 100 year flood zone and a 30 year mortgage, the odds of the house flooding while being owned by the bank is 30%. I know it's obvious when it's spelled out, but most people don't put two and two together. They only are unhappy when the lender requires them to purchase flood insurance.

It doesn't quite work out like that.  If you own a house for 100 years you don't have 100% chance of it flooding.  Just like if you roll a die once, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, but two rolls doesn't equal 2/6 odds, or else 6 rolls would be 6/6 (100%) chance of rolling a 6.

Mustache Math!  :D It pervades this forum...

That's not how it works, apparently, but if you have a 1/100 chance every year, then over 30 years you have a 26% chance, which is not that different from 30%.  So you can quibble about the calculations, but either way the bank is taking a big risk.

The other thing to remember is that when you draw the 100 year flood zone, the likelihood is only 1/100 years at the far extent of the zone, any closer to the river/low point and you're in a higher risk zone. So you could say that the river bank was 'in the 100 year flood zone' and it could flood every time it rains. Most places in a 100 year flood zone have a higher than 1/100 risk of flooding every year.
The 26% number is calculated 1-e^(-p*t), this is the probability that it happens, not the probability it happens exactly once.  The expected value is still 0.3 (p*t).  In that 26%, there's a chance for it to have happened 100 times in those 30 years. 

Like in the dice rolling, the expected value when rolling 6 times is 1, but 0 is possible and up to 6 is possible.  In that case, there's a 67% chance that any given number happens.

Digital Dogma

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 423
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14913 on: September 19, 2016, 01:32:48 PM »
We've had two 1/500 year floods here in the past 40 years, and about 3 1/100 year floods.
Indeed.  I've heard similar things often. 

And I'd question the accuracy not only due to data limitations, as mentioned above, but (even if those were all accurate and 100% known) due to the ability to project forward based on them, mostly due to the climate changing.

Keep in mind depending on the geographic area the "500 year flood" covers, it's not really unexpected that they wouldn't happen.

If for example you split the USA up into 500 pieces, you'd get a "500 year flood" about every year, give or take, and it wouldn't be overly surprising statistically.
The frequency of these floods based on historical trends does little to account for the fact that we've been taking land that has traditionally retained or absorbed storm water, and we're paving it over so its impermeable. As a result, we end up collecting all that storm water in catch basins and dumping it into the nearest body of water (polluting our rivers every time it rains). Thats only going to make things worse during a flood. I like what they're trying to do in Milwaukee by tearing up old stormwater trenches made of concrete, and adding grasses and plants to a permeable trench system so they tend to drain and retain water during the beginning of any rain event, and channel water out of the city to the treatment facility during long/heavy rain events.

Debts_of_Despair

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 544
  • Location: NY
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14914 on: September 19, 2016, 04:49:09 PM »
Feel free to start a new thread about flood insurance. :)

ender

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7402
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14915 on: September 19, 2016, 06:04:19 PM »
A new thread?

pffft there are multiple mini-threads in this one already :P

esq

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 294
  • Location: Humble, TX: World's Biggest Oxymoron
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14916 on: September 19, 2016, 07:21:56 PM »
This happened over the course of the past few weeks with a coworker.  Guy probably makes $100K.

Him:  I'm glad fall is almost here, I'm tired of being broke all the time.
Me:  Say huh?
Him: Yeah, I'm spending like $150 a weekend in fuel for my boat.  The slip (boat parking spot) is like another $200 a month. 
Me:  Wow, I had no idea it cost that much.
Him:  Yeah, I think next week I'll pay to have it winterized and put it into storage.
Me:  Oh, how much does that cost?
Him:  I think the winterizing cost $200, then it's only $80/month for indoor storage.
Me:  Oh.  OK.

About a week later...

Me:  Done boating for the year?
Him:  Yeah, but I think I'm going to sell my boat.
Me:  Tired of spending money on it?
Him:  Kinda.  I think I'm going to sell it and get a newer one with an aluminum trailer so I don't have to buy a F250.  I don't like towing mine with my F150.
Me:  How much does that thing weigh?
Him:  About 10K loaded.  I only get about 8 MPG pulling it.
Me:  I wouldn't want to do that either.
Him:  I figure I can probably sell my boat for $15K, but I hate to do it because I have some equity in it, and a new one will be about $35K.  Can't buy a F250 for $20K, amiright!
Me:  Well, good luck.

Ugh.  That was painful to read.  Imagine it's even worse in person.

LeRainDrop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1834
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14917 on: September 19, 2016, 08:55:45 PM »
Feel free to start a new thread about flood insurance. :)

What does the black box say?  How about the orange box?   These floods are foamy!

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9918
  • Registered member
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14918 on: September 19, 2016, 10:02:20 PM »
Feel free to start a new thread about flood insurance. :)

feel free to start a new thread about new threads

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 28444
  • Age: -997
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14919 on: September 20, 2016, 01:38:02 AM »
Feel free to start a new thread about flood insurance. :)

feel free to start a new thread about new threads

Feel free to just put anything and everything into the Overheard at Work thread.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

ender

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7402
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14920 on: September 20, 2016, 06:12:11 AM »
We have a "personal finance" presentation today at work, probably will provide good content for this thread..

jinga nation

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2694
  • Age: 247
  • Location: 'Murica's Dong
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14921 on: September 20, 2016, 06:25:45 AM »
Not overheard but a corporate HR email regarding 2017 benefits has a bullet on the offer to cash out upto 40 hours of leave time. I'd love to see the 2017 metrics in 2018 to know how many of my co-workers cashed out. And why, and what did they spend the money on... but I can easily predict that based on past performance, with p>0.5.
Who am I kidding? Fuck that saving shit, it'll be p>0.7.

Playing with Fire UK

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3449
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14922 on: September 20, 2016, 07:01:42 AM »
Regarding a 100 year flood zone and a 30 year mortgage, the odds of the house flooding while being owned by the bank is 30%. I know it's obvious when it's spelled out, but most people don't put two and two together. They only are unhappy when the lender requires them to purchase flood insurance.

It doesn't quite work out like that.  If you own a house for 100 years you don't have 100% chance of it flooding.  Just like if you roll a die once, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, but two rolls doesn't equal 2/6 odds, or else 6 rolls would be 6/6 (100%) chance of rolling a 6.

Mustache Math!  :D It pervades this forum...

That's not how it works, apparently, but if you have a 1/100 chance every year, then over 30 years you have a 26% chance, which is not that different from 30%.  So you can quibble about the calculations, but either way the bank is taking a big risk.

The other thing to remember is that when you draw the 100 year flood zone, the likelihood is only 1/100 years at the far extent of the zone, any closer to the river/low point and you're in a higher risk zone. So you could say that the river bank was 'in the 100 year flood zone' and it could flood every time it rains. Most places in a 100 year flood zone have a higher than 1/100 risk of flooding every year.
The 26% number is calculated 1-e^(-p*t), this is the probability that it happens, not the probability it happens exactly once.  The expected value is still 0.3 (p*t).  In that 26%, there's a chance for it to have happened 100 times in those 30 years. 

Like in the dice rolling, the expected value when rolling 6 times is 1, but 0 is possible and up to 6 is possible.  In that case, there's a 67% chance that any given number happens.

The point I'm making is that most places within the 500 year flood zone are also in the 450 year flood zone, many will be in the 300 year flood zone etc. If you are in the 500 year flood zone then your absolute best case scenario is that you expect an average of one flood in 500 years. You might be doing your maths based on a 1 in 500 year event, but not realising that you should be doing it based on a 1 in 300 year event.

The river bank doesn't flood every month because of random chance, it floods every month because it has a really high likelihood of flooding.

It is like rolling a die and looking for 'a three or more', not like rolling a die looking for a six.

Kitsunegari

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 477
  • Location: Quebec, CA
  • Penny wise, pound foolish
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14923 on: September 20, 2016, 08:01:58 AM »
We have a "personal finance" presentation today at work, probably will provide good content for this thread..

Looking forward to hear about this!

RWD

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6499
  • Location: Arizona
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14924 on: September 20, 2016, 08:08:13 AM »
Not overheard but a corporate HR email regarding 2017 benefits has a bullet on the offer to cash out upto 40 hours of leave time. I'd love to see the 2017 metrics in 2018 to know how many of my co-workers cashed out. And why, and what did they spend the money on... but I can easily predict that based on past performance, with p>0.5.
Who am I kidding? Fuck that saving shit, it'll be p>0.7.

My company allows you to sell back sick time at the end of the year, also up to 40 hours. I sell mine back pretty much every year because I haven't been using it.

mtn

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1343
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14925 on: September 20, 2016, 08:45:04 AM »
Not overheard but a corporate HR email regarding 2017 benefits has a bullet on the offer to cash out upto 40 hours of leave time. I'd love to see the 2017 metrics in 2018 to know how many of my co-workers cashed out. And why, and what did they spend the money on... but I can easily predict that based on past performance, with p>0.5.
Who am I kidding? Fuck that saving shit, it'll be p>0.7.

My company allows you to sell back sick time at the end of the year, also up to 40 hours. I sell mine back pretty much every year because I haven't been using it.

Wish we had that, but at least we have a very generous vacation policy here. At my old job, where we had a horrible vacation policy (it has improved since I left), I'd often use sick days as a mental health day. Kinda needed it too.

paddedhat

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2228
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14926 on: September 20, 2016, 01:33:39 PM »
[Tangentially related to my biggest pet peeve about most modern construction. Cheap, shoddy construction hidden beneath a shiny veneer.

I'll second that. Anecdotes I know.

Watched a roofing crew put new shingles on an old house a few years back. No roofing felt under the shingles.

Replaced a door+frame on my house recently. Discovered builders did not wrap the house. Did not attach door frame to the studs. Did not put anything under the door threshold to shed water or seal out water.

Basically build it as quickly as possible and sell it. Our house is okay and problems are getting corrected as we do maintenance like replace HVAC, doors, floors, etc. Well I mean we are doing them to a higher standard than the builders originally did.

Nothing wrong with skipping the felt, IF you don't have shingles blowing off, due to high wind.  Unlike house wrap, felt is there as a nothing but a pre-installed tarp, for a damaged roof. Personally, I never roof without 30LB felt, and ice and water shield under shingles, but I know that 99.9% of the felt I installed will never do a thing for the building it's nailed to.  The whole failure to protect the subfloor under the door thing, just amazes me. I have been using rubber flashing under doors for decades, and every new framer I hire asks, "what's that for?" Given that a lot of new pre-hung exterior doors with adjustable sills, leak right from the factory, I can't believe that it's rare to see anybody actually install them correctly.  Finally, believe it or not, with the wet garbage that passes for framing lumber lately,  shimming and nailing the door frame to the jack studs is often a bad idea. If you install the unit by face nailing the brickmold with galvanized #12 finish nails, you have a much better shot of correcting a non-functional door, as the house dries out and "settles".  You can usually bring a door frame back into alignment with carefully concealed, long screws, IF you haven't shimmed it and nailed it tight to the jacks. Generally I agree with your thoughts. I built new places for three decades, am closing on the sale of my three year old, personal home in a few days, and wouldn't mind ending up in a nice mid-century fixer-upper that has real hardwood floors and a full brick/stone exterior. I'm soooo tired of chipboard and vinyl siding that I could puke.

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9332
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14927 on: September 20, 2016, 02:04:09 PM »
Not overheard but a corporate HR email regarding 2017 benefits has a bullet on the offer to cash out upto 40 hours of leave time. I'd love to see the 2017 metrics in 2018 to know how many of my co-workers cashed out. And why, and what did they spend the money on... but I can easily predict that based on past performance, with p>0.5.
Who am I kidding? Fuck that saving shit, it'll be p>0.7.

My company allows you to sell back sick time at the end of the year, also up to 40 hours. I sell mine back pretty much every year because I haven't been using it.
We can cash out 16 vacation hours in December and I do it every year. I'd cash out a heck of a lot more if it were allowed. However we accrue 4 hours sick/6 hours vacation a pay period. I will have 194/vacation and 98.5/sick at year's end, even with planned deductions for the cashout and holiday travels.

i spend every PTO hour i get and then some by flexing time.  thats my time i make enough and my company ESOP is really my driving force to reach FIRE so i'm taking all the time off i can get.  may drop to 4-8s when we have kids in a couple years.  i'd do it now but i need some socially acceptable reason.

TheGrimSqueaker

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2604
  • Location: A desert wasteland, where none but the weird survive
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14928 on: September 20, 2016, 02:19:16 PM »
We've had two 1/500 year floods here in the past 40 years, and about 3 1/100 year floods.
Indeed.  I've heard similar things often. 

And I'd question the accuracy not only due to data limitations, as mentioned above, but (even if those were all accurate and 100% known) due to the ability to project forward based on them, mostly due to the climate changing.

Quote
The new (proposed) 100 year flood zone would have put 1/4 of the city (including the national mall, any fed buildings and almost all of the SW quadrant underwater once every 100 years.

I think you all (and a lot of officials) fall for a common misconception here.
A 100 Year flood does not mean you get a flood every 100 years. It means the HIGHEST flood in 100 years is this amount.
There is nothing in this statistic saying you cant have 3 100-year floods (3 times the water gets that high) in one year. Or 50 times a 99year-high flood in 100 years.

My 2 cents: If you want a realistic danger, go for the 10 or at most 20 year flood. 20 year is what german drainage in cities is build for btw. And about once a month a city is flooded because the drainage cant keep up. Because there is more then 1 city.

GOOD point.  Bottom line is you can't really predict this stuff ... You can look at historical records but it's really hard to make odds on black swans.  Insurance companies try, but I'm not convinced they do a great job

Also, fault tends to be bursty, and it cascades.

Bursty fault: some weird weather patterns occur in a region and cause unusually wet weather, resulting in a 10-year, 20-year, and 100-year flood within a 5-year span. Then the weather pattern adjusts and just after people panic and build a massive flood control wall, the climate gets suddenly dry and stays that way for a decade.

Cascading fault: a 100-year flood takes out a levee that would have protected a city against the normal seasonal flooding, but the storm sewer system is only designed to handle normal seasonal water levels with the assumption that the levee is in place. With the levee no longer providing protection, ordinary weather patterns now overwhelm the storm sewer system, resulting in 10-year, 5-year, and 20-year flood levels in a region that was formerly protected. The statistical model should change in response to loss of a flood control mechanism.

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14929 on: September 20, 2016, 03:33:26 PM »
A Bayesian would say that if you had a flood once, you're gonna have a flood again.   ...   Ok, she might not say that, but that's the essence.

financialfreedomsloth

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 198
  • Location: Belgium
    • financial freedom sloth
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14930 on: September 21, 2016, 06:16:35 AM »
Husband's (all-male) team got onto the subject of WAGs and spending last week*.

One of the guys complained that his live-in girlfriend (previously mentioned in this thread) buys at least one new lipstick each month. At a cost of $180 each.

More than $2k a year on lipstick.

When they first met, she gave him a tour of her shoes. "These were $1500, these were $500..." It was only after they moved in together that she 'fessed up to $30k in CC debt.
The tour of her shoes should have been a clear warning sign to him and the perfect timing to make a run for it. Losts of shoes, purses = high maintenance. When I was still dating I had a ‘no shoes or purses women’ rule I lived by. Seems to have worked out okay as I ended up with a more or less frugal partner

Kitsune

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1853
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14931 on: September 21, 2016, 09:19:36 AM »
Husband's (all-male) team got onto the subject of WAGs and spending last week*.

One of the guys complained that his live-in girlfriend (previously mentioned in this thread) buys at least one new lipstick each month. At a cost of $180 each.

More than $2k a year on lipstick.

When they first met, she gave him a tour of her shoes. "These were $1500, these were $500..." It was only after they moved in together that she 'fessed up to $30k in CC debt.
The tour of her shoes should have been a clear warning sign to him and the perfect timing to make a run for it. Losts of shoes, purses = high maintenance. When I was still dating I had a ‘no shoes or purses women’ rule I lived by. Seems to have worked out okay as I ended up with a more or less frugal partner

*shrugs* I have 2 pairs of boots and a pair of shoes that cost 300$+ each. Granted, I bought them 8 years ago, and am still wearing them and wouldn't buy more (also known as: 1 pair of expensive heels, maintained, rather than 3 cheap pairs a year, costs less in the long run, and my feet never hurt).

 Shoes aren't necessarily Evil. But lord, I wouldn't give someone a walk-through of my closet and give price listings; that's just vulgar. And I wouldn't date someone who does that, either.

MgoSam

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3684
  • Location: Minnesota
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14932 on: September 21, 2016, 12:16:13 PM »
Husband's (all-male) team got onto the subject of WAGs and spending last week*.

One of the guys complained that his live-in girlfriend (previously mentioned in this thread) buys at least one new lipstick each month. At a cost of $180 each.

More than $2k a year on lipstick.

When they first met, she gave him a tour of her shoes. "These were $1500, these were $500..." It was only after they moved in together that she 'fessed up to $30k in CC debt.
The tour of her shoes should have been a clear warning sign to him and the perfect timing to make a run for it. Losts of shoes, purses = high maintenance. When I was still dating I had a ‘no shoes or purses women’ rule I lived by. Seems to have worked out okay as I ended up with a more or less frugal partner

I agree, that would be a red flag.

nobodyspecial

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1464
  • Location: Land above the land of the free
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14933 on: September 21, 2016, 12:28:03 PM »
Husband's (all-male) team got onto the subject of WAGs and spending last week*.

One of the guys complained that his live-in girlfriend (previously mentioned in this thread) buys at least one new lipstick each month. At a cost of $180 each.

More than $2k a year on lipstick.

When they first met, she gave him a tour of her shoes. "These were $1500, these were $500..." It was only after they moved in together that she 'fessed up to $30k in CC debt.
The tour of her shoes should have been a clear warning sign to him and the perfect timing to make a run for it. Losts of shoes, purses = high maintenance. When I was still dating I had a ‘no shoes or purses women’ rule I lived by. Seems to have worked out okay as I ended up with a more or less frugal partner

Do any women have a similar; number of bikes/computers rule for men ?

4alpacas

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1825
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14934 on: September 21, 2016, 12:32:21 PM »
Husband's (all-male) team got onto the subject of WAGs and spending last week*.

One of the guys complained that his live-in girlfriend (previously mentioned in this thread) buys at least one new lipstick each month. At a cost of $180 each.

More than $2k a year on lipstick.

When they first met, she gave him a tour of her shoes. "These were $1500, these were $500..." It was only after they moved in together that she 'fessed up to $30k in CC debt.
The tour of her shoes should have been a clear warning sign to him and the perfect timing to make a run for it. Losts of shoes, purses = high maintenance. When I was still dating I had a ‘no shoes or purses women’ rule I lived by. Seems to have worked out okay as I ended up with a more or less frugal partner

Do any women have a similar; number of bikes/computers rule for men ?
If I did, then I couldn't date myself.  At any given time, I usually have 2 bikes (sometimes three).  I also have a lot of computers, but most are for work! 

nobodyspecial

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1464
  • Location: Land above the land of the free
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14935 on: September 21, 2016, 12:42:55 PM »
Do any women have a similar; number of bikes/computers rule for men ?
If I did, then I couldn't date myself.  At any given time, I usually have 2 bikes (sometimes three).  I also have a lot of computers, but most are for work!
2 bikes is hardcore mustachian, you really need 5 or 6 with a couple of wheels/frames around for that fixie/recumbant project you haven't got time for.

Just realised I have 5 working laptops scattered around the house - and a cupboard full of cables for things that were obsolete last century

4alpacas

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1825
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14936 on: September 21, 2016, 12:56:28 PM »
Do any women have a similar; number of bikes/computers rule for men ?
If I did, then I couldn't date myself.  At any given time, I usually have 2 bikes (sometimes three).  I also have a lot of computers, but most are for work!
2 bikes is hardcore mustachian, you really need 5 or 6 with a couple of wheels/frames around for that fixie/recumbant project you haven't got time for.
I just have a road bike and a commuter bike.  There have been other bikes (mountain bike, tri bike), but I downsized to fit into a smaller place.
Quote
Just realised I have 5 working laptops scattered around the house - and a cupboard full of cables for things that were obsolete last century
I'm not going to to count...

BTDretire

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3074
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14937 on: September 21, 2016, 01:04:44 PM »
Husband's (all-male) team got onto the subject of WAGs and spending last week*.

One of the guys complained that his live-in girlfriend (previously mentioned in this thread) buys at least one new lipstick each month. At a cost of $180 each.

More than $2k a year on lipstick.

When they first met, she gave him a tour of her shoes. "These were $1500, these were $500..." It was only after they moved in together that she 'fessed up to $30k in CC debt.
The tour of her shoes should have been a clear warning sign to him and the perfect timing to make a run for it. Losts of shoes, purses = high maintenance. When I was still dating I had a ‘no shoes or purses women’ rule I lived by. Seems to have worked out okay as I ended up with a more or less frugal partner

Do any women have a similar; number of bikes/computers rule for men ?

 What, wait, that's different. :-)

lemanfan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1271
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14938 on: September 21, 2016, 01:11:12 PM »
Do any women have a similar; number of bikes/computers rule for men ?

As long as they don't count guitars.  Oh wait!  Maybe they do and that's why I'm still single?  ;)

firelight

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1070
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14939 on: September 21, 2016, 01:32:54 PM »
Do any women have a similar; number of bikes/computers rule for men ?

As long as they don't count guitars.  Oh wait!  Maybe they do and that's why I'm still single?  ;)
Some of my friends have the rule of not dating men that have more than one (or two if it's needed for work) cars. The more cars, the more spendypants someone is, especially if those are flashy cars.

21runner

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 99
  • Age: 33
  • Location: Nashville
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14940 on: September 21, 2016, 01:52:56 PM »
Do any women have a similar; number of bikes/computers rule for men ?

As long as they don't count guitars.  Oh wait!  Maybe they do and that's why I'm still single?  ;)

+1!!!

lemanfan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1271
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14941 on: September 21, 2016, 02:08:18 PM »
Do any women have a similar; number of bikes/computers rule for men ?

As long as they don't count guitars.  Oh wait!  Maybe they do and that's why I'm still single?  ;)

+1!!!

That figures.. someone from Nashville pitching in when we're talking instruments... ;)

DagobertDuck

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 278
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14942 on: September 21, 2016, 02:38:35 PM »
Do any women have a similar; number of bikes/computers rule for men ?

Finally I know why I'm single!

BeFree

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 22
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Hadensville, VA
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14943 on: September 21, 2016, 02:54:42 PM »
Do any women have a similar; number of bikes/computers rule for men ?

I find it a big turnoff if the guy has the latest greatest expensive phablet. =P And usually it's through Verizon...

ender

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7402
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14944 on: September 22, 2016, 06:18:46 AM »
It's amusing to me how many folks here are so proud of their judging other folks based on their external appearances.

It reminds me of the "why can't I find any frugal person to date?" thread elsewhere. Maybe everyone has written off all the Mustachians as consumeristic because they have lots of computers/bikes :P


Half-Borg

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 271
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14945 on: September 22, 2016, 06:29:16 AM »
Now that I sold my car, I can get rid of my oldest laptop.
It had a diagnostic software installed, which licencse was linked to the hardware.

I'm finally gonna get a girl now!

On a related note, someone suggested that I need a dryer, because what should the girl I bring home think of me, if there were clothes hanged up? That I'm poor? (None of my friends own a dryer, and they are far from frugal)

FIREdancer

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 138
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14946 on: September 22, 2016, 08:20:58 AM »
I kind of want to facepunch my coworker, but as I don't like to lecture other people for their choices and I'm not a violent person, I'll share with you all instead:

This particular coworker is in debt (mortgage, car, credit card, and student loans) and regularly talks about being in debt.  We are paid bi-weekly and every other week she says something to the effect of "Wohoo! It's payday! I can go get lunch/coffee/craft supplies/etc"

She's also in her late 40s and regularly talks about how she won't ever be able to retire because she doesn't have any money to save for retirement.

Anyway, she just bought a dog for $5,000.  I was like "What?!?!? Seriously?"  She says they saved up for it...and I'm thinking, ummmm can you really call it "saving" when you are in debt?  And now that $5,000 dog will continue to cost you more money for years to come.  Plus they already have several other pets.

A few weeks ago they also bought one of those mini pigs for like $500, but they ended up giving it back a few weeks later for some reason...so they were just out $500 for that.

Chris22

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3770
  • Location: Chicago NW Suburbs
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14947 on: September 22, 2016, 08:24:14 AM »
What's with you guys and dryers?  My latest gas bill came the other day, was for $22. I have a gas dryer and a gas water heater, since we take way more showers than use the dryer, I figure the dryer is, what, 25% of that expense at the most?  $5.50/mo?  Why is this such an obsession for you people?

SweetTPi

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 150
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Greater Philly
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14948 on: September 22, 2016, 08:25:08 AM »
Do any women have a similar; number of bikes/computers rule for men ?

At least 2 bikes are preferable, with one for road fun and one for commuting, but I am okay with 1 serving duel purpose as that's my current setup.  Be prepared for (lighthearted) flack when you go to the group ride with a rack, bike lock, and platform pedals, though.

Oh, you mean as an upper limit?  Can there truly be such a thing beyond space constraints?

MgoSam

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3684
  • Location: Minnesota
Re: Overheard at Work
« Reply #14949 on: September 22, 2016, 08:26:32 AM »


On a related note, someone suggested that I need a dryer, because what should the girl I bring home think of me, if there were clothes hanged up? That I'm poor? (None of my friends own a dryer, and they are far from frugal)

I would like to think that someone you brought home would appreciate the energy efficient way in which your clothes are dried, not to mention that they will last longer and look better.