Author Topic: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"  (Read 7458 times)

Kaspian

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Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« on: March 08, 2016, 12:53:41 PM »
Ok, they actually said that yesterday as an intro on TV.  "Wall Street has been back up, is it time for investors to jump back into the market?"

First of all, what Average Joe investor "jumps" in and out of the market? 

Second, the entire story (Global TV) centered around a given premise that investors had sold last month when values went down and trying to decide whether now is the time to buy back.  ...Of course they did!  It's the smart thing to do!  :(   

It's no wonder most people don't trust investing when the very advice they receive from financial segment experts encourages them to sell low and buy high. 

Maybe not "comedy" so much as "tragedy"... 

One Noisy Cat

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2016, 01:16:16 PM »
   All those doom and gloom Armageddon is here websites that in November and January were talking imminent and drastic crash are silent...or peddling some other hysteria.

Rules for the vast majority of people
1) save as much as you can
2) put a huge majority in a low fee Wilshire 5000 index fund
3) invest regularly
4) no changes until you are real close to retirement

But the "One Noisy Cat Financial News Channel" would flop if it was put on the air. No hysteria, no panic modes, no advertising from high expense funds\

last I checked the DJIA was down a mere 2.4% since January 1, 2016. Much Ado About Nothing

MgoSam

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2016, 02:43:21 PM »
 
last I checked the DJIA was down a mere 2.4% since January 1, 2016. Much Ado About Nothing

2.4%!!!!! Time to go buy a ton of actual gold bricks for when the financial collapse happens, I'll be able to look at my neighbors and call them suckers!!!!

/s

Sadly, I know quite a few people like this. They post articles on FB about how the Fed is doing this and that, and how the stock market is stupid and how they hold their savings in gold and guns. A few of them have stocked up a bug out bag for the end-of-times.

Vertical Mode

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2016, 02:49:04 PM »
Clearly, it IS time to jump into the market. Look at all those hot stocks! Better get 'em before they cool off, or before Joe down the street beats you to the punch...

Yikes.

dycker1978

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2016, 03:26:22 PM »
Clearly, it IS time to jump into the market. Look at all those hot stocks! Better get 'em before they cool off, or before Joe down the street beats you to the punch...

Yikes.
I say that time I get paid as I invest the amount I always invest....

gimp

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2016, 01:46:23 AM »
I think people always forget how heavy gold bricks are. I mean, a standard brick is 12.4 kg, almost 30 pounds. How many gold bricks can you carry? If you're one of those doomsday preppers that can't even make it up the stairs without needing to catch your breath, you're not getting the gold bricks out of the house without a plan. Now, if you're Alan Rickman's brother, and you're stealing gold from the federal reserve, and you brought multiple forklifts and a whole convoy of dump trucks, you're gonna do a lot better. Heavy machinery is key!

Vertical Mode

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2016, 08:09:59 AM »
I think people always forget how heavy gold bricks are. I mean, a standard brick is 12.4 kg, almost 30 pounds. How many gold bricks can you carry? If you're one of those doomsday preppers that can't even make it up the stairs without needing to catch your breath, you're not getting the gold bricks out of the house without a plan. Now, if you're Alan Rickman's brother, and you're stealing gold from the federal reserve, and you brought multiple forklifts and a whole convoy of dump trucks, you're gonna do a lot better. Heavy machinery is key!

Heavy machinery is a depreciating asset you'd have to acquire, which might eat into your haul ;-)

gimp

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2016, 01:05:31 PM »
That's why you should have enough gold that other people pay you to store their gold too, which is money you use on the heavy machinery.

Of course, you probably have to be a large and trustworthy agency, perhaps a central banking reserve of a superpower first world country.

Wait, shit. There I go Die Hard 3-ing again.

Scandium

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2016, 02:17:02 PM »
I think people always forget how heavy gold bricks are. I mean, a standard brick is 12.4 kg, almost 30 pounds. How many gold bricks can you carry? If you're one of those doomsday preppers that can't even make it up the stairs without needing to catch your breath, you're not getting the gold bricks out of the house without a plan. Now, if you're Alan Rickman's brother, and you're stealing gold from the federal reserve, and you brought multiple forklifts and a whole convoy of dump trucks, you're gonna do a lot better. Heavy machinery is key!
Yeah, but gold also cost $1250 per Oz. So that one brick is worth $547,318!

thd7t

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2016, 02:22:34 PM »
   All those doom and gloom Armageddon is here websites that in November and January were talking imminent and drastic crash are silent...or peddling some other hysteria.

Rules for the vast majority of people
1) save as much as you can
2) put a huge majority in a low fee Wilshire 5000 index fund
3) invest regularly
4) no changes until you are real close to retirement

But the "One Noisy Cat Financial News Channel" would flop if it was put on the air. No hysteria, no panic modes, no advertising from high expense funds\

last I checked the DJIA was down a mere 2.4% since January 1, 2016. Much Ado About Nothing
You just need a bunch of talking heads to argue about which index to join and what constitutes a low ER.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2016, 03:25:01 PM »
But the "One Noisy Cat Financial News Channel" would flop if it was put on the air. No hysteria, no panic modes, no advertising from high expense funds\

You've got a great name there now just change your core beliefs you can cash in and sell out!

First of all, what Average Joe investor "jumps" in and out of the market? 
Probably a few more than any of us here want to think about...

WildJager

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2016, 09:37:51 PM »
Second, the entire story (Global TV) centered around a given premise that investors had sold last month when values went down and trying to decide whether now is the time to buy back.  ...Of course they did!  It's the smart thing to do!  :(   

Well, I mean, given the supply/demand nature of the market investors did sell last month.

Did I say investors?  I meant speculators. 

The speculators sold last month.  Investors laughed themselves to the bank.

zephyr911

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2016, 05:57:38 AM »
I think people always forget how heavy gold bricks are. I mean, a standard brick is 12.4 kg, almost 30 pounds. How many gold bricks can you carry? If you're one of those doomsday preppers that can't even make it up the stairs without needing to catch your breath, you're not getting the gold bricks out of the house without a plan. Now, if you're Alan Rickman's brother, and you're stealing gold from the federal reserve, and you brought multiple forklifts and a whole convoy of dump trucks, you're gonna do a lot better. Heavy machinery is key!
Hey now, this guy could still be useful, if only for defending a heavily fortified position from an unarmed mass attack.


whodidntante

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2016, 12:27:34 AM »

First of all, what Average Joe investor "jumps" in and out of the market? 

I've never met Average Joe, but a handful of people I personally know have told me about grand entrances to and exits from the market.  I think it's common. 

Tigerpine

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2016, 06:34:21 AM »
I agree with whodidntante, most people think about the market solely in terms of the current price of stocks/bonds/etc.  They don't think about dividends/interest coupons/etc.  They also don't understand the concept of "realized events".

It's a lot of ignorance (in the neutral sense of the word).  If more people did just a little research and learned how markets work beyond what they're told by TV, we'd have a lot more rational choices made in my opinion.

nobodyspecial

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2016, 10:56:57 AM »
Now, if you're Alan Rickman's brother, and you're stealing gold from the federal reserve, and you brought multiple forklifts and a whole convoy of dump trucks, you're gonna do a lot better. Heavy machinery is key!

Heavy machinery is a depreciating asset you'd have to acquire, which might eat into your haul ;-)
The first thing you earn at evil supervilian school is to lease depreciating assets like dump trucks and henchmen.
This is especially important for volcano lairs. They are quite likely to be damaged when the good guys attack and so it's much better to rent.

MgoSam

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #16 on: March 19, 2016, 03:35:19 PM »
Now, if you're Alan Rickman's brother, and you're stealing gold from the federal reserve, and you brought multiple forklifts and a whole convoy of dump trucks, you're gonna do a lot better. Heavy machinery is key!

Heavy machinery is a depreciating asset you'd have to acquire, which might eat into your haul ;-)
The first thing you earn at evil supervilian school is to lease depreciating assets like dump trucks and henchmen.
This is especially important for volcano lairs. They are quite likely to be damaged when the good guys attack and so it's much better to rent.

Also need to add the following

1. If you have a beautiful henchwomen, please don't send her to take down the hero. It never ends well.
2. IF you happen to capture the hero, don't tell him/her your super-secret plans and then put them in a position to escape. Second though, just kill them.
3. Discretion s the better part of valor, it's better if you work underground so that you aren't too visible.
4. Invest in good firing ranges for your goons/Stormtroopers, they don't serve a purpose if they can't shoot worth shit.

SMCx3

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #17 on: March 19, 2016, 03:46:41 PM »
Jump, move fast, do not hesitate.

How many times do you hear this crap in the financial world.  It is hard with all of this noise to remain slow and steady, but this place helps keep me grounded.

JPatch

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #18 on: March 21, 2016, 06:47:24 AM »
There's a fellow in my office I've worked with on some projects.  He sold most of his stock from his 401K back in August/September when the market dipped.  He "jumped" back in the stock market in December, then quickly jumped back out January when the market dipped again.  He confidently told me he's about ready to go back "all in" stocks if things keep going up.

Unbelievable.  He knows I think it's silly, but he swears there's a a long-term plan to wealth and riches that he's following.  It's all part of the plan...

Tabaxus

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #19 on: March 21, 2016, 08:09:55 AM »
There's a fellow in my office I've worked with on some projects.  He sold most of his stock from his 401K back in August/September when the market dipped.  He "jumped" back in the stock market in December, then quickly jumped back out January when the market dipped again.  He confidently told me he's about ready to go back "all in" stocks if things keep going up.

Unbelievable.  He knows I think it's silly, but he swears there's a a long-term plan to wealth and riches that he's following.  It's all part of the plan...

Yikes.  If he really timed things that badly, he may have basically locked in a ~12% loss during a time when the market overall has only gone down 1-2%.  Oh, the things poor market timing will do to you...

TheGrimSqueaker

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #20 on: March 21, 2016, 08:17:17 AM »
There's a fellow in my office I've worked with on some projects.  He sold most of his stock from his 401K back in August/September when the market dipped.  He "jumped" back in the stock market in December, then quickly jumped back out January when the market dipped again.  He confidently told me he's about ready to go back "all in" stocks if things keep going up.

Unbelievable.  He knows I think it's silly, but he swears there's a a long-term plan to wealth and riches that he's following.  It's all part of the plan...

Yikes.  If he really timed things that badly, he may have basically locked in a ~12% loss during a time when the market overall has only gone down 1-2%.  Oh, the things poor market timing will do to you...

I've gotten lucky with market timing before, and made some good guesses about bubbles, but ultimately it does come down to luck. I don't recommend it as a strategy, and there's a reason I work full-time instead of doing day training.

Indexer

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #21 on: March 21, 2016, 05:36:10 PM »
Some investors and clearly some media journalists think the stock market is like the ocean. Sometimes it is calm and you should go boating and have fun. Sometimes it is like a hurricane and you need to go home. They expect financial advisors to be like weather men.

To the rest of us this seems insane. We look at buying stocks like buying things that go up and down in value but trend up in value over time. We see them go down in value and think 'YEAH! They are on sale!"

BTDretire

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #22 on: March 22, 2016, 06:51:55 AM »
FWIW.
I get a market newsletter, the guru sent out a special alert on 2-10-16.
The alert said if you have new money to invest, the market is right to put it in.
He was one day early, The S&P, DOW, NASDAQ and my VTSAX are all up sense that call.
 So far it has been a great call.

Gondolin

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #23 on: March 22, 2016, 07:27:28 AM »
Qmavam - you do realize that you and half if the marketer's email list got a buy call and the other half got a sell call, right? With a reasonably large starting pool, it's easy to just make both calls to half the group. Then, split the winning group and repeat. Over the course of a few months or quarters you go from 40000 people who have a neutral opinion to 750 people who are convinced that you're a financial wizard because you've "gotten it right" 5 times in a row! Now, with such persuasive proof of your acumen, you can sell those people whatever you want.

Your source is a marketing guru because he's figured out the above, not because he has some secret sauce.

ohyonghao

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Re: Media: "Is it time to jump back into the market?"
« Reply #24 on: March 22, 2016, 11:59:01 AM »
I have family in Taiwan, and their broker has been encouraging them this year to purchase US currency because it's the latest hot thing.  In 2014 the exchange rate was 1USD:29TWD, 2 years later it had edged towards 1USD:34TWD, and looks today to have dropped back below 1USD:33TWD.  2014 would have been the time to exchange your TWD to USD, not right now as it's hitting historical highs.  Of course the broker only gets paid while making trades, so why wouldn't their advice be buy, sell, buy, sell?