Author Topic: I am glad they were wrong!  (Read 2822 times)

minimalistgamer

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I am glad they were wrong!
« on: July 11, 2019, 04:17:41 AM »
I have been keenly following the stock market since August 16, 2016. I was reading a lot of negative press about the fate of the United States, if the election were to go a certain a way that the media did not approve of - to put it mildly. I questioned whether or not I should even stay in this country at one point because I believed them. Suffice to say, it has been a very interesting journey.

On Aug 1, 2016, the S&P 500 closed at 2,170.95, and on Sep 1, 2016, it closed at 2,157.69.

On July 10, 2019 9:51AM ET, Fidelity's graph showed the S&P 500 crossing the 3000 threshold, and the market closed at 2,993.07.

https://imgur.com/NY5RMEL

This is surreal to me. Especially because I believed this to be true -

https://imgur.com/cTED4t6

I am so glad they were completely wrong. Of course, they are going to predict the end of the world every day, and one day they are going to be right, but until then, I will just enjoy the roller coaster ride!

Here is how my net worth has changed over the years -

https://imgur.com/2rQvxu9

This country is the beacon of hope for lawful immigrants who work hard and play by the rules.

As the saying goes, wealth amplifies who you already are. I believe myself to be a net positive asset to my community, and I intend to use my wealth to serve them as best as I can!

God bless!

2Cent

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2019, 05:10:41 AM »
Though he did start a trade war and soured relations with the rest of the world, I believe Trumps biggest accomplishment is that so far he managed not to get into any war and reducing the involvement in the current wars. The cost and damage from wars is just unbelievable.
Of course there is still time and war with Iran would sink everything.

js82

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2019, 05:35:40 AM »
Conventional wisdom was that markets like certainty(to an extent, they do), and that an unpredictable president would have a negative impact on markets.  However, certain things override that.  Principally, cutting corporate taxes.

For example, if you cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, that means a company moves from keeping 65% to 79% of their earnings - an increase of 21.5% more cash after taxes.  Since the value of corporate stock is a function of the expected money the return to shareholders, one could reasonably expect the value of stocks to go up by a similar amount - both before the bill is passed in anticipation of its passage, and fully after it becomes law.  Obviously this is a simplification, but it isn't far off in practice.

November 8, 2016(Election Day):2139.56
Jan 20, 2017(Inauguration day): 2263.69 (open at start of inauguration day)
July 11, 2019: 2993.07

Annualized returns:
Election Day -> Now: 13.5%
Inauguration day -> Now: 12%
Returns not attributable to the corporate tax cut(hypothetical 21.5% effect):
Election Day -> Now: 5.5%
Inauguration Day -> Now: 3.5%


Basic conclusion: If you cut corporate taxes, stocks will go up, barring economic implosion.

At least until you have to pay the tax cut back with interest, because in reality it's deficit spending - the government essentially took out a loan to cut corporate(and personal) taxes.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2019, 05:37:11 AM »
At least until you have to pay the tax cut back with interest, because in reality it's deficit spending - the government essentially took out a loan to cut corporate(and personal) taxes.

Lets hope they cut spending!

Plugra

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2019, 07:06:48 AM »

[snip]

I am so glad they were completely wrong. Of course, they are going to predict the end of the world every day, and one day they are going to be right, but until then, I will just enjoy the roller coaster ride!

Here is how my net worth has changed over the years -

https://imgur.com/2rQvxu9

This country is the beacon of hope for lawful immigrants who work hard and play by the rules.

As the saying goes, wealth amplifies who you already are. I believe myself to be a net positive asset to my community, and I intend to use my wealth to serve them as best as I can!

God bless!

Shorter version:  Other people may have problems. But as long as I'm ahead financially, everything's right with the world.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2019, 07:28:59 AM »

[snip]

As the saying goes, wealth amplifies who you already are. I believe myself to be a net positive asset to my community, and I intend to use my wealth to serve them as best as I can!

God bless!

Shorter version:  Other people may have problems. But as long as I'm ahead financially, everything's right with the world.

I literally said, I do my absolute best to help my community, and that's still not good enough for you. I am just one guy trying my best to do the right thing, and you have to drag me down. Well...whatever.

PDXTabs

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2019, 07:53:37 AM »
This is surreal to me. Especially because I believed this to be true -

https://imgur.com/cTED4t6

Me too, but tax cuts help, at least in the short term.

But also remember: Trump still has time to kill the market either with trade wars, the deterioration of the rule of law, massive debt in either the public or private sector, or continual assaults on the independence of the Federal Reserve.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2019, 07:54:45 AM »
This is surreal to me. Especially because I believed this to be true -

https://imgur.com/cTED4t6

Me too, but tax cuts help, at least in the short term.

But also remember: Trump still has time to kill the market either with the deterioration of the rule of law, massive debt in either the public or private sector, or continual assaults on the independence of the Federal Reserve.

I agree with you 100%

Anything can happen. Lets hope nothing bad happens though. I will continue to track the numbers.

BTDretire

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2019, 10:01:50 AM »
This is surreal to me. Especially because I believed this to be true -

https://imgur.com/cTED4t6

Me too, but tax cuts help, at least in the short term.

But also remember: Trump still has time to kill the market either with the deterioration of the rule of law, massive debt in either the public or private sector, or continual assaults on the independence of the Federal Reserve.

I agree with you 100%

Anything can happen. Lets hope nothing bad happens though. I will continue to track the numbers.

  Yes, anything can happen, so let's all hate on Trump because, ya know, anything can happen.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2019, 10:43:45 AM »

  Yes, anything can happen, so let's all hate on Trump because, ya know, anything can happen.

Lets not worry about the president. Lets focus on the good, and lets make sure we are good to each other, and help each other. It is really the only thing we can do :)

CindyBS

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2019, 03:37:59 PM »

  Yes, anything can happen, so let's all hate on Trump because, ya know, anything can happen.

Lets not worry about the president. Lets focus on the good, and lets make sure we are good to each other, and help each other. It is really the only thing we can do :)

Wow, let me guess, you don't have a pre-existing condition or serious health bills.  It is awfully easy, and frankly, quite a privilege to not have to worry about the president because you are not personally affected by him.

My son has cancer.  The protections of the elimination of lifetime caps and prohibiting discrimination based on pre-existing conditions in the ACA are the only thing that are keeping him insurable.  He's had more than $2.5Million of medical expenses in the last 3 years, something even a wealthy family like mine can't pay.   We would be facing financial ruin without health insurance.

The Trump administration is currently suing to have the ACA overturned and all those protections taken away with no plan in place if they are gone.

This affects every aspect of our lives - when we can retire, whether or not we can stay near aging parents and stay in America, etc., etc. 

My son had a bone marrow transplant ($1M procedure) 2 years ago.  It was heart wrenching to know that one of the factors in the decision on whether or not to do this life threatening procedure had to be whether or not Republicans were going to take away his ability to get insurance in the future if we waited.  If we waited and the ACA was overturned, there was a good chance he would be uninsurable and then what? 

I know so many families in the same situation as us.  Oh yea, and we are doing with no paid parental leave (thanks Republicans).  But at least we got a couple extra bucks in our tax return, amirite? 


That is what you are supporting when you support Trump.  But please tell me again how you are helping people like me and others in your community.   

Cassie

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2019, 04:32:21 PM »
Cindy, I know people in your position and it’s terrifying.  People frequently vote against their own best interests. I really don’t understand it.

Plugra

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2019, 05:59:46 PM »

That is what you are supporting when you support Trump.  But please tell me again how you are helping people like me and others in your community.

Exactly.  Numerous people on this forum have benefited from recent gains in the stock market.  But to claim that because the stock market is rising, there is nothing wrong with America that a few private charitable acts can't fix -- and so all we need from our government is a few more tax and spending cuts -- is just ridiculous.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2019, 08:25:24 PM »
The DOW Jones Industrial Average went above 27000!!

The S&P 500 closed at 2,999.91! Will we see it close above 3000 tomorrow? I hope so!

2Cent

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2019, 01:01:39 AM »
@CindyBS The real question is why do medical procedures cost that much in the first place. If you go to India you can get the same procedure in a world class hospital for less than 60k. Now ofcourse labour is cheaper, but my goodness, how much do you pay to doctors to warrant 50 times more cost.

There is so much fighting about who pays that no one is looking at the other side of the equation.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2019, 05:01:35 AM »
The futures indicate that today maybe the day the market will close above 3000! :D If so, I am going to treat myself to a nice meal. I will post a picture!

zolotiyeruki

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2019, 06:41:10 AM »
At least until you have to pay the tax cut back with interest, because in reality it's deficit spending - the government essentially took out a loan to cut corporate(and personal) taxes.
FWIW, overall tax receipts are up, and so are corporate taxes despite the dramatically lower tax rates Sorry, I was looking at the wrong charts.  Some of this is probably due to repatriation of profits held overseas (because of the formerly-high corporate tax rates), so we'll see if that same trend continues.

« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 06:41:16 AM by zolotiyeruki »

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2019, 07:43:07 AM »
At least until you have to pay the tax cut back with interest, because in reality it's deficit spending - the government essentially took out a loan to cut corporate(and personal) taxes.
FWIW, overall tax receipts are up, and so are corporate taxes despite the dramatically lower tax rates.  Some of this is probably due to repatriation of profits held overseas (because of the formerly-high corporate tax rates), so we'll see if that same trend continues.

Completely unrelated, but I like your TF2 avatar! Engineer was my favorite class as well!

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #18 on: July 12, 2019, 05:08:52 PM »
CONGRATULATIONS AMERICA! :)

S&P 500 closed at 3013.77!!



The greatest country the world has ever known!

RetiredAt63

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #19 on: July 12, 2019, 05:49:45 PM »
Why is this thread in the Animustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy?

js82

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #20 on: July 12, 2019, 08:22:30 PM »
At least until you have to pay the tax cut back with interest, because in reality it's deficit spending - the government essentially took out a loan to cut corporate(and personal) taxes.
FWIW, overall tax receipts are up, and so are corporate taxes despite the dramatically lower tax rates.  Some of this is probably due to repatriation of profits held overseas (because of the formerly-high corporate tax rates), so we'll see if that same trend continues.

No, tax receipts did not go up immediately following the tax bill.  Your link isn't comparing the right time periods if you want to consider the impact of the tax bill.  For instance, my withholding changed at the beginning of 2018, so comparing 2018 vs. 2019 isn't appropriate, as you're comparing two periods where the tax cut was already in effect (with the exception of the first 3 months of each period, since Fiscal years run Oct-Sep).

More appropriate is this - compare 2017 to 2018, starting in January or February until September.:  https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0918.pdf  Revenue over the first three quarters of the year declined, despite year-over-year GDP growth.  Corporate income tax receipts were down around 30% from one fiscal year to the next(see: page 5 in my link).

Yes, tax cuts boosted stock prices.  No, revenues did not go up in the period following the tax bill when compared with the same months from the prior year.  Corporate tax revenues were way, way down as a result of the tax bill.  The available data makes this quite clear.

Why is this thread in the Animustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy?

In fairness, deficit spending to pump stock prices with a corporate tax cut, while leaving the burden of repayment to younger generations, is pretty damn Antimustachian.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 08:36:39 PM by js82 »

RetiredAt63

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2019, 05:58:55 AM »
Why is this thread in the Animustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy?

In fairness, deficit spending to pump stock prices with a corporate tax cut, while leaving the burden of repayment to younger generations, is pretty damn Antimustachian.

So true, but is this why the OP posted here?

zolotiyeruki

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2019, 06:37:40 AM »
At least until you have to pay the tax cut back with interest, because in reality it's deficit spending - the government essentially took out a loan to cut corporate(and personal) taxes.
FWIW, overall tax receipts are up, and so are corporate taxes despite the dramatically lower tax rates.  Some of this is probably due to repatriation of profits held overseas (because of the formerly-high corporate tax rates), so we'll see if that same trend continues.

No, tax receipts did not go up immediately following the tax bill.  Your link isn't comparing the right time periods if you want to consider the impact of the tax bill.  For instance, my withholding changed at the beginning of 2018, so comparing 2018 vs. 2019 isn't appropriate, as you're comparing two periods where the tax cut was already in effect (with the exception of the first 3 months of each period, since Fiscal years run Oct-Sep).

More appropriate is this - compare 2017 to 2018, starting in January or February until September.:  https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0918.pdf  Revenue over the first three quarters of the year declined, despite year-over-year GDP growth.  Corporate income tax receipts were down around 30% from one fiscal year to the next(see: page 5 in my link).
You know what?  You're right.  That said, 2019 saw those numbers already start to rebound.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 06:45:20 AM by zolotiyeruki »

Plugra

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2019, 08:39:05 AM »
From today's NY Times:

Quote
The federal government has already run a $747 billion budget deficit for the 2019 fiscal year, which ends in September — a 23 percent increase from the year before. That is an unusually large increase given the strength of economic growth.

Total personal and corporate income tax levels are down slightly from the previous year, Treasury Department statistics show. Federal spending has risen — particularly for national defense and health care programs — and so have the interest costs on the growing national debt. Those trends reflect Washington’s free-spending ways and the rising costs of an aging population as the baby boom generation draws Social Security and Medicare benefits.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2019, 10:21:45 AM »
I went out with my friends to celebrate this wonderful American achievement! What a close to a great week.

We must learn to enjoy life while we can. This won't last!

ender

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #25 on: July 13, 2019, 12:59:07 PM »
So true, but is this why the OP posted here?

This is basically a wanna be "top" thread...

innkeeper77

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #26 on: July 13, 2019, 01:39:44 PM »
... This won't last!

Well that rings true in many ways. The stock market is up! Lets celebrate while we can before we destroy the country and world through inequality and climate change.......

OP's signature might explain some of this rather contrarian and tone deaf rhetoric as well.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #27 on: July 13, 2019, 01:41:25 PM »
... This won't last!

Well that rings true in many ways. The stock market is up! Lets celebrate while we can before we destroy the country and world through inequality and climate change.......

OP's signature might explain some of this rather contrarian and tone deaf rhetoric as well.

Did I do something wrong? What rhetoric are you talking about? I checked the post I made, I basically described how I paid off my mortgage? Is that a bad thing? Should I remove it? If I broke the rules, please let me know and I will gladly fix it.

Also, climate change? I am just talking about the stock market...I am thoroughly confused.

So true, but is this why the OP posted here?

This is basically a wanna be "top" thread...

I thought this was the right place to showcase the failings of American mainstream media. They basically lied for months leading up to the election, and they are proven wrong in the best way possible. I considered their inaccurate reporting shameful.

I did not mean to offend anyone...

I am not a citizen, I can't vote...so I don't know if that makes a difference or not. I am just getting a feeling that I said something...I might have committed a social faux pas it appears. Please enlighten me. Thanks!
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 01:54:40 PM by minimalistgamer »

RetiredAt63

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #28 on: July 13, 2019, 07:38:45 PM »

I thought this was the right place to showcase the failings of American mainstream media. They basically lied for months leading up to the election, and they are proven wrong in the best way possible. I considered their inaccurate reporting shameful.

I did not mean to offend anyone...

I am not a citizen, I can't vote...so I don't know if that makes a difference or not. I am just getting a feeling that I said something...I might have committed a social faux pas it appears. Please enlighten me. Thanks!

I was the one who asked "Why here" on the Wall of shame and comedy.  It wasn't clear (at least to me) in the first post that your goal was to "showcase the failings of American mainstream media."  Now you posting that here makes more sense.

Alfred J Quack

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #29 on: July 14, 2019, 03:14:37 AM »
CONGRATULATIONS AMERICA! :)

S&P 500 closed at 3013.77!!



The greatest country the world has ever known!
I'm confused, why are you congratulating a country based on the achievements of a collection of top-performing companies who (mostly) do business world-wide?


2Cent

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #30 on: July 15, 2019, 02:21:26 AM »
I get the feeling OP is just trolling for reactions. Not seriously looking to discuss anything.