Author Topic: I am glad they were wrong!  (Read 8210 times)

minimalistgamer

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I am glad they were wrong!
« on: July 11, 2019, 04:17:41 AM »
I have been keenly following the stock market since August 16, 2016. I was reading a lot of negative press about the fate of the United States, if the election were to go a certain a way that the media did not approve of - to put it mildly. I questioned whether or not I should even stay in this country at one point because I believed them. Suffice to say, it has been a very interesting journey.

On Aug 1, 2016, the S&P 500 closed at 2,170.95, and on Sep 1, 2016, it closed at 2,157.69.

On July 10, 2019 9:51AM ET, Fidelity's graph showed the S&P 500 crossing the 3000 threshold, and the market closed at 2,993.07.

https://imgur.com/NY5RMEL

This is surreal to me. Especially because I believed this to be true -

https://imgur.com/cTED4t6

I am so glad they were completely wrong. Of course, they are going to predict the end of the world every day, and one day they are going to be right, but until then, I will just enjoy the roller coaster ride!

Here is how my net worth has changed over the years -

https://imgur.com/2rQvxu9

This country is the beacon of hope for lawful immigrants who work hard and play by the rules.

As the saying goes, wealth amplifies who you already are. I believe myself to be a net positive asset to my community, and I intend to use my wealth to serve them as best as I can!

God bless!

2Cent

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2019, 05:10:41 AM »
Though he did start a trade war and soured relations with the rest of the world, I believe Trumps biggest accomplishment is that so far he managed not to get into any war and reducing the involvement in the current wars. The cost and damage from wars is just unbelievable.
Of course there is still time and war with Iran would sink everything.

js82

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2019, 05:35:40 AM »
Conventional wisdom was that markets like certainty(to an extent, they do), and that an unpredictable president would have a negative impact on markets.  However, certain things override that.  Principally, cutting corporate taxes.

For example, if you cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, that means a company moves from keeping 65% to 79% of their earnings - an increase of 21.5% more cash after taxes.  Since the value of corporate stock is a function of the expected money the return to shareholders, one could reasonably expect the value of stocks to go up by a similar amount - both before the bill is passed in anticipation of its passage, and fully after it becomes law.  Obviously this is a simplification, but it isn't far off in practice.

November 8, 2016(Election Day):2139.56
Jan 20, 2017(Inauguration day): 2263.69 (open at start of inauguration day)
July 11, 2019: 2993.07

Annualized returns:
Election Day -> Now: 13.5%
Inauguration day -> Now: 12%
Returns not attributable to the corporate tax cut(hypothetical 21.5% effect):
Election Day -> Now: 5.5%
Inauguration Day -> Now: 3.5%


Basic conclusion: If you cut corporate taxes, stocks will go up, barring economic implosion.

At least until you have to pay the tax cut back with interest, because in reality it's deficit spending - the government essentially took out a loan to cut corporate(and personal) taxes.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2019, 05:37:11 AM »
At least until you have to pay the tax cut back with interest, because in reality it's deficit spending - the government essentially took out a loan to cut corporate(and personal) taxes.

Lets hope they cut spending!

Plugra

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2019, 07:06:48 AM »

[snip]

I am so glad they were completely wrong. Of course, they are going to predict the end of the world every day, and one day they are going to be right, but until then, I will just enjoy the roller coaster ride!

Here is how my net worth has changed over the years -

https://imgur.com/2rQvxu9

This country is the beacon of hope for lawful immigrants who work hard and play by the rules.

As the saying goes, wealth amplifies who you already are. I believe myself to be a net positive asset to my community, and I intend to use my wealth to serve them as best as I can!

God bless!

Shorter version:  Other people may have problems. But as long as I'm ahead financially, everything's right with the world.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2019, 07:28:59 AM »

[snip]

As the saying goes, wealth amplifies who you already are. I believe myself to be a net positive asset to my community, and I intend to use my wealth to serve them as best as I can!

God bless!

Shorter version:  Other people may have problems. But as long as I'm ahead financially, everything's right with the world.

I literally said, I do my absolute best to help my community, and that's still not good enough for you. I am just one guy trying my best to do the right thing, and you have to drag me down. Well...whatever.

PDXTabs

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2019, 07:53:37 AM »
This is surreal to me. Especially because I believed this to be true -

https://imgur.com/cTED4t6

Me too, but tax cuts help, at least in the short term.

But also remember: Trump still has time to kill the market either with trade wars, the deterioration of the rule of law, massive debt in either the public or private sector, or continual assaults on the independence of the Federal Reserve.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2019, 07:54:45 AM »
This is surreal to me. Especially because I believed this to be true -

https://imgur.com/cTED4t6

Me too, but tax cuts help, at least in the short term.

But also remember: Trump still has time to kill the market either with the deterioration of the rule of law, massive debt in either the public or private sector, or continual assaults on the independence of the Federal Reserve.

I agree with you 100%

Anything can happen. Lets hope nothing bad happens though. I will continue to track the numbers.

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2019, 10:01:50 AM »
This is surreal to me. Especially because I believed this to be true -

https://imgur.com/cTED4t6

Me too, but tax cuts help, at least in the short term.

But also remember: Trump still has time to kill the market either with the deterioration of the rule of law, massive debt in either the public or private sector, or continual assaults on the independence of the Federal Reserve.

I agree with you 100%

Anything can happen. Lets hope nothing bad happens though. I will continue to track the numbers.

  Yes, anything can happen, so let's all hate on Trump because, ya know, anything can happen.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2019, 10:43:45 AM »

  Yes, anything can happen, so let's all hate on Trump because, ya know, anything can happen.

Lets not worry about the president. Lets focus on the good, and lets make sure we are good to each other, and help each other. It is really the only thing we can do :)

CindyBS

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2019, 03:37:59 PM »

  Yes, anything can happen, so let's all hate on Trump because, ya know, anything can happen.

Lets not worry about the president. Lets focus on the good, and lets make sure we are good to each other, and help each other. It is really the only thing we can do :)

Wow, let me guess, you don't have a pre-existing condition or serious health bills.  It is awfully easy, and frankly, quite a privilege to not have to worry about the president because you are not personally affected by him.

My son has cancer.  The protections of the elimination of lifetime caps and prohibiting discrimination based on pre-existing conditions in the ACA are the only thing that are keeping him insurable.  He's had more than $2.5Million of medical expenses in the last 3 years, something even a wealthy family like mine can't pay.   We would be facing financial ruin without health insurance.

The Trump administration is currently suing to have the ACA overturned and all those protections taken away with no plan in place if they are gone.

This affects every aspect of our lives - when we can retire, whether or not we can stay near aging parents and stay in America, etc., etc. 

My son had a bone marrow transplant ($1M procedure) 2 years ago.  It was heart wrenching to know that one of the factors in the decision on whether or not to do this life threatening procedure had to be whether or not Republicans were going to take away his ability to get insurance in the future if we waited.  If we waited and the ACA was overturned, there was a good chance he would be uninsurable and then what? 

I know so many families in the same situation as us.  Oh yea, and we are doing with no paid parental leave (thanks Republicans).  But at least we got a couple extra bucks in our tax return, amirite? 


That is what you are supporting when you support Trump.  But please tell me again how you are helping people like me and others in your community.   

Cassie

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2019, 04:32:21 PM »
Cindy, I know people in your position and it’s terrifying.  People frequently vote against their own best interests. I really don’t understand it.

Plugra

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2019, 05:59:46 PM »

That is what you are supporting when you support Trump.  But please tell me again how you are helping people like me and others in your community.

Exactly.  Numerous people on this forum have benefited from recent gains in the stock market.  But to claim that because the stock market is rising, there is nothing wrong with America that a few private charitable acts can't fix -- and so all we need from our government is a few more tax and spending cuts -- is just ridiculous.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2019, 08:25:24 PM »
The DOW Jones Industrial Average went above 27000!!

The S&P 500 closed at 2,999.91! Will we see it close above 3000 tomorrow? I hope so!

2Cent

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2019, 01:01:39 AM »
@CindyBS The real question is why do medical procedures cost that much in the first place. If you go to India you can get the same procedure in a world class hospital for less than 60k. Now ofcourse labour is cheaper, but my goodness, how much do you pay to doctors to warrant 50 times more cost.

There is so much fighting about who pays that no one is looking at the other side of the equation.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2019, 05:01:35 AM »
The futures indicate that today maybe the day the market will close above 3000! :D If so, I am going to treat myself to a nice meal. I will post a picture!

zolotiyeruki

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2019, 06:41:10 AM »
At least until you have to pay the tax cut back with interest, because in reality it's deficit spending - the government essentially took out a loan to cut corporate(and personal) taxes.
FWIW, overall tax receipts are up, and so are corporate taxes despite the dramatically lower tax rates Sorry, I was looking at the wrong charts.  Some of this is probably due to repatriation of profits held overseas (because of the formerly-high corporate tax rates), so we'll see if that same trend continues.

« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 06:41:16 AM by zolotiyeruki »

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2019, 07:43:07 AM »
At least until you have to pay the tax cut back with interest, because in reality it's deficit spending - the government essentially took out a loan to cut corporate(and personal) taxes.
FWIW, overall tax receipts are up, and so are corporate taxes despite the dramatically lower tax rates.  Some of this is probably due to repatriation of profits held overseas (because of the formerly-high corporate tax rates), so we'll see if that same trend continues.

Completely unrelated, but I like your TF2 avatar! Engineer was my favorite class as well!

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #18 on: July 12, 2019, 05:08:52 PM »
CONGRATULATIONS AMERICA! :)

S&P 500 closed at 3013.77!!



The greatest country the world has ever known!

RetiredAt63

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #19 on: July 12, 2019, 05:49:45 PM »
Why is this thread in the Animustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy?

js82

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #20 on: July 12, 2019, 08:22:30 PM »
At least until you have to pay the tax cut back with interest, because in reality it's deficit spending - the government essentially took out a loan to cut corporate(and personal) taxes.
FWIW, overall tax receipts are up, and so are corporate taxes despite the dramatically lower tax rates.  Some of this is probably due to repatriation of profits held overseas (because of the formerly-high corporate tax rates), so we'll see if that same trend continues.

No, tax receipts did not go up immediately following the tax bill.  Your link isn't comparing the right time periods if you want to consider the impact of the tax bill.  For instance, my withholding changed at the beginning of 2018, so comparing 2018 vs. 2019 isn't appropriate, as you're comparing two periods where the tax cut was already in effect (with the exception of the first 3 months of each period, since Fiscal years run Oct-Sep).

More appropriate is this - compare 2017 to 2018, starting in January or February until September.:  https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0918.pdf  Revenue over the first three quarters of the year declined, despite year-over-year GDP growth.  Corporate income tax receipts were down around 30% from one fiscal year to the next(see: page 5 in my link).

Yes, tax cuts boosted stock prices.  No, revenues did not go up in the period following the tax bill when compared with the same months from the prior year.  Corporate tax revenues were way, way down as a result of the tax bill.  The available data makes this quite clear.

Why is this thread in the Animustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy?

In fairness, deficit spending to pump stock prices with a corporate tax cut, while leaving the burden of repayment to younger generations, is pretty damn Antimustachian.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 08:36:39 PM by js82 »

RetiredAt63

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2019, 05:58:55 AM »
Why is this thread in the Animustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy?

In fairness, deficit spending to pump stock prices with a corporate tax cut, while leaving the burden of repayment to younger generations, is pretty damn Antimustachian.

So true, but is this why the OP posted here?

zolotiyeruki

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2019, 06:37:40 AM »
At least until you have to pay the tax cut back with interest, because in reality it's deficit spending - the government essentially took out a loan to cut corporate(and personal) taxes.
FWIW, overall tax receipts are up, and so are corporate taxes despite the dramatically lower tax rates.  Some of this is probably due to repatriation of profits held overseas (because of the formerly-high corporate tax rates), so we'll see if that same trend continues.

No, tax receipts did not go up immediately following the tax bill.  Your link isn't comparing the right time periods if you want to consider the impact of the tax bill.  For instance, my withholding changed at the beginning of 2018, so comparing 2018 vs. 2019 isn't appropriate, as you're comparing two periods where the tax cut was already in effect (with the exception of the first 3 months of each period, since Fiscal years run Oct-Sep).

More appropriate is this - compare 2017 to 2018, starting in January or February until September.:  https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0918.pdf  Revenue over the first three quarters of the year declined, despite year-over-year GDP growth.  Corporate income tax receipts were down around 30% from one fiscal year to the next(see: page 5 in my link).
You know what?  You're right.  That said, 2019 saw those numbers already start to rebound.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 06:45:20 AM by zolotiyeruki »

Plugra

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2019, 08:39:05 AM »
From today's NY Times:

Quote
The federal government has already run a $747 billion budget deficit for the 2019 fiscal year, which ends in September — a 23 percent increase from the year before. That is an unusually large increase given the strength of economic growth.

Total personal and corporate income tax levels are down slightly from the previous year, Treasury Department statistics show. Federal spending has risen — particularly for national defense and health care programs — and so have the interest costs on the growing national debt. Those trends reflect Washington’s free-spending ways and the rising costs of an aging population as the baby boom generation draws Social Security and Medicare benefits.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2019, 10:21:45 AM »
I went out with my friends to celebrate this wonderful American achievement! What a close to a great week.

We must learn to enjoy life while we can. This won't last!

ender

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #25 on: July 13, 2019, 12:59:07 PM »
So true, but is this why the OP posted here?

This is basically a wanna be "top" thread...

innkeeper77

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #26 on: July 13, 2019, 01:39:44 PM »
... This won't last!

Well that rings true in many ways. The stock market is up! Lets celebrate while we can before we destroy the country and world through inequality and climate change.......

OP's signature might explain some of this rather contrarian and tone deaf rhetoric as well.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #27 on: July 13, 2019, 01:41:25 PM »
... This won't last!

Well that rings true in many ways. The stock market is up! Lets celebrate while we can before we destroy the country and world through inequality and climate change.......

OP's signature might explain some of this rather contrarian and tone deaf rhetoric as well.

Did I do something wrong? What rhetoric are you talking about? I checked the post I made, I basically described how I paid off my mortgage? Is that a bad thing? Should I remove it? If I broke the rules, please let me know and I will gladly fix it.

Also, climate change? I am just talking about the stock market...I am thoroughly confused.

So true, but is this why the OP posted here?

This is basically a wanna be "top" thread...

I thought this was the right place to showcase the failings of American mainstream media. They basically lied for months leading up to the election, and they are proven wrong in the best way possible. I considered their inaccurate reporting shameful.

I did not mean to offend anyone...

I am not a citizen, I can't vote...so I don't know if that makes a difference or not. I am just getting a feeling that I said something...I might have committed a social faux pas it appears. Please enlighten me. Thanks!
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 01:54:40 PM by minimalistgamer »

RetiredAt63

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #28 on: July 13, 2019, 07:38:45 PM »

I thought this was the right place to showcase the failings of American mainstream media. They basically lied for months leading up to the election, and they are proven wrong in the best way possible. I considered their inaccurate reporting shameful.

I did not mean to offend anyone...

I am not a citizen, I can't vote...so I don't know if that makes a difference or not. I am just getting a feeling that I said something...I might have committed a social faux pas it appears. Please enlighten me. Thanks!

I was the one who asked "Why here" on the Wall of shame and comedy.  It wasn't clear (at least to me) in the first post that your goal was to "showcase the failings of American mainstream media."  Now you posting that here makes more sense.

Alfred J Quack

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #29 on: July 14, 2019, 03:14:37 AM »
CONGRATULATIONS AMERICA! :)

S&P 500 closed at 3013.77!!



The greatest country the world has ever known!
I'm confused, why are you congratulating a country based on the achievements of a collection of top-performing companies who (mostly) do business world-wide?


2Cent

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #30 on: July 15, 2019, 02:21:26 AM »
I get the feeling OP is just trolling for reactions. Not seriously looking to discuss anything.

LilyFleur

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #31 on: July 18, 2019, 08:14:02 PM »

  Yes, anything can happen, so let's all hate on Trump because, ya know, anything can happen.

Lets not worry about the president. Lets focus on the good, and lets make sure we are good to each other, and help each other. It is really the only thing we can do :)

Wow, let me guess, you don't have a pre-existing condition or serious health bills.  It is awfully easy, and frankly, quite a privilege to not have to worry about the president because you are not personally affected by him.

My son has cancer.  The protections of the elimination of lifetime caps and prohibiting discrimination based on pre-existing conditions in the ACA are the only thing that are keeping him insurable.  He's had more than $2.5Million of medical expenses in the last 3 years, something even a wealthy family like mine can't pay.   We would be facing financial ruin without health insurance.

The Trump administration is currently suing to have the ACA overturned and all those protections taken away with no plan in place if they are gone.

This affects every aspect of our lives - when we can retire, whether or not we can stay near aging parents and stay in America, etc., etc. 

My son had a bone marrow transplant ($1M procedure) 2 years ago.  It was heart wrenching to know that one of the factors in the decision on whether or not to do this life threatening procedure had to be whether or not Republicans were going to take away his ability to get insurance in the future if we waited.  If we waited and the ACA was overturned, there was a good chance he would be uninsurable and then what? 

I know so many families in the same situation as us.  Oh yea, and we are doing with no paid parental leave (thanks Republicans).  But at least we got a couple extra bucks in our tax return, amirite? 


That is what you are supporting when you support Trump.  But please tell me again how you are helping people like me and others in your community.
How many diabetics is the OP buying insulin for?  Because undoubtedly there are diabetics in his community that will be dying because they cannot afford a drug that has increased in price 500% in the past decade. But, yay, the stock market. Trump is the best, and the Republicans keep trying to deny health coverage to folks with pre-existing conditions.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #32 on: July 18, 2019, 08:26:43 PM »
How many diabetics is the OP buying insulin for?  Because undoubtedly there are diabetics in his community that will be dying because they cannot afford a drug that has increased in price 500% in the past decade. But, yay, the stock market. Trump is the best, and the Republicans keep trying to deny health coverage to folks with pre-existing conditions.

What an incredibly ignorant thing to say. When I said community, I meant my community IRL, not this community of strangers, the fact that you never once asked me for clarification is very telling.

Also, notice that I never once mentioned the President. Why I should I care when I am not a citizen and I cannot vote? It is true what they say, you hate him more than you love this country.

I refuse to participate in your insanity. He is living in your head rent free. Seek help and quit making assumptions about strangers that you know nothing about. God bless.

I get the feeling OP is just trolling for reactions. Not seriously looking to discuss anything.


Looking for what reactions? I am not a citizen...I don't know what to tell you. I clearly explained why I posted this. It appears to me that some of you that hate the president cannot come to terms with last election, but you have to understand that there are those of us who are not as obsessed with politics as you are.

If Clinton had won, and Fox News (or Faux News if you prefer) posted something like this, rest assured I will be here lampooning them too. I have no loyalty to these "news" organizations. The fact that I have to say that is so sad.

I have a life, and prefer not to live in a state of perpetual outrage.

For the last time, I am sorry I insulted your media. I meant no offense. I am not a republican, I am not a democrat, most importantly, I am not a citizen. Please forgive for any mistakes.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2019, 09:59:09 PM by minimalistgamer »

LilyFleur

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #33 on: July 18, 2019, 09:40:37 PM »
I get the feeling OP is just trolling for reactions. Not seriously looking to discuss anything.

Too bad this forum isn't moderated better. I like the forums where folks aren't allowed to call other folks haters just for being concerned about our citizens with pre-existing health conditions.

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #34 on: July 18, 2019, 10:02:34 PM »
I get the feeling OP is just trolling for reactions. Not seriously looking to discuss anything.

Too bad this forum isn't moderated better. I like the forums where folks aren't allowed to call other folks haters just for being concerned about our citizens with pre-existing health conditions.
Dear lord... I apologized... What more can I do?

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BDWW

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #35 on: July 19, 2019, 02:47:31 AM »
I get the feeling OP is just trolling for reactions. Not seriously looking to discuss anything.

Too bad this forum isn't moderated better. I like the forums where folks aren't allowed to call other folks haters just for being concerned about our citizens with pre-existing health conditions.
Dear lord... I apologized... What more can I do?

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Declare your absolute hatred for Trump, call Republicans racists and nazis, and donning a pink knit hat should do it.

2Cent

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #36 on: July 19, 2019, 02:56:07 AM »
...
I get the feeling OP is just trolling for reactions. Not seriously looking to discuss anything.


Looking for what reactions? I am not a citizen...I don't know what to tell you. I clearly explained why I posted this. It appears to me that some of you that hate the president cannot come to terms with last election, but you have to understand that there are those of us who are not as obsessed with politics as you are.

If Clinton had won, and Fox News (or Faux News if you prefer) posted something like this, rest assured I will be here lampooning them too. I have no loyalty to these "news" organizations. The fact that I have to say that is so sad.

I have a life, and prefer not to live in a state of perpetual outrage.

For the last time, I am sorry I insulted your media. I meant no offense. I am not a republican, I am not a democrat, most importantly, I am not a citizen. Please forgive for any mistakes.
For profit news companies like to make things more sensational, so they can sell more adds. Nothing new there. But predictions that don't turn out are not lies invented by the media. Few people, including experts, had expected him to get elected in the first place. It is worrisome to me that news organisations are unashamedly trying to influence public opinion along partisan lines, not even pretending to give accurate news and focusing on stirring emotions rather than reporting facts for people to consider. Fox news started this, and as it turned out to be lucrative, now they all do it. My advice is to watch the BBC. No one is fully neutral, but they are a lot more measured in their reporting.

Your posts read like, "In your face liberals with your fake news". That's what I meant by trolling, or lampooning as you call it. While I have quite a low opinion of Trump I don't hate the man nor am I in a state of perpetual outrage. I think you can safely assume the same for the rest of us. But as other have pointed out, while the stock market is doing well, the costs of Trumps policies are costing in other ways.


Just Joe

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #37 on: July 19, 2019, 07:41:27 AM »
Maybe you aren't visiting the same news outlets as other people. The man is a disaster every time he opens his mouth.

I know I've watched enough FoxNews to know they never report on his faux pas.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #38 on: July 19, 2019, 09:23:14 AM »
Maybe you aren't visiting the same news outlets as other people. The man is a disaster every time he opens his mouth.

I know I've watched enough FoxNews to know they never report on his faux pas.
You may be right.  I'm a conservative, and I find myself shaking my head frequently.  "He said what?"  Yeah, he's got a big mouth, breaks tradition, shows poor etiquette, etc.  But he's also very not-PC, and not afraid of calling things out (e.g. Europe for riding the US's coattails when it comes to defense), rather than appeasing everyone.

That said, I am far more interested in the day-to-day impact of his policies.  Unemployment is way down, tax revenues are mostly up even while tax rates are lower, and regulations are being removed.

desert_phoenix

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #39 on: July 19, 2019, 07:43:14 PM »
Maybe you aren't visiting the same news outlets as other people. The man is a disaster every time he opens his mouth.

I know I've watched enough FoxNews to know they never report on his faux pas.
You may be right.  I'm a conservative, and I find myself shaking my head frequently.  "He said what?"  Yeah, he's got a big mouth, breaks tradition, shows poor etiquette, etc.  But he's also very not-PC, and not afraid of calling things out (e.g. Europe for riding the US's coattails when it comes to defense), rather than appeasing everyone.

That said, I am far more interested in the day-to-day impact of his policies.  Unemployment is way down, tax revenues are mostly up even while tax rates are lower, and regulations are being removed.
With regard to Europe riding coattails on defense, the NATO agreement to spend 2% of GDP on defense was an agreement by 2024.  Or do you mean the general stationing of American troops throughout western Europe?

On tax revenues being up, that is a bit simplistic.  Revenues from non-tariff sources are down 3% and it is only the tariffs (ie, a tax on American companies/consumers) are the only reason tax revenue seems higher.  It remains to be seen what the long-term implications of the trade war with China are.

Why are regulations being removed listed as a positive as if it does not depend on the specific regulation?  Surely even the most dyed-in-the-wool conservative would question the inherent value in removing at least some of these regulations, no? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks.html

LilyFleur

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #40 on: July 19, 2019, 08:14:07 PM »
...
I get the feeling OP is just trolling for reactions. Not seriously looking to discuss anything.


Looking for what reactions? I am not a citizen...I don't know what to tell you. I clearly explained why I posted this. It appears to me that some of you that hate the president cannot come to terms with last election, but you have to understand that there are those of us who are not as obsessed with politics as you are.

If Clinton had won, and Fox News (or Faux News if you prefer) posted something like this, rest assured I will be here lampooning them too. I have no loyalty to these "news" organizations. The fact that I have to say that is so sad.

I have a life, and prefer not to live in a state of perpetual outrage.

For the last time, I am sorry I insulted your media. I meant no offense. I am not a republican, I am not a democrat, most importantly, I am not a citizen. Please forgive for any mistakes.
For profit news companies like to make things more sensational, so they can sell more adds. Nothing new there. But predictions that don't turn out are not lies invented by the media. Few people, including experts, had expected him to get elected in the first place. It is worrisome to me that news organisations are unashamedly trying to influence public opinion along partisan lines, not even pretending to give accurate news and focusing on stirring emotions rather than reporting facts for people to consider. Fox news started this, and as it turned out to be lucrative, now they all do it. My advice is to watch the BBC. No one is fully neutral, but they are a lot more measured in their reporting.

Your posts read like, "In your face liberals with your fake news". That's what I meant by trolling, or lampooning as you call it. While I have quite a low opinion of Trump I don't hate the man nor am I in a state of perpetual outrage. I think you can safely assume the same for the rest of us. But as other have pointed out, while the stock market is doing well, the costs of Trumps policies are costing in other ways.
I agree.  Part of the reason for the outrage--on the part of both liberals and conservatives--is the demise of the FCC's Fairness Doctrine.
From Wiki:
Two corollary rules of the doctrine, the personal attack rule and the "political editorial" rule, remained in practice until 2000. The "personal attack" rule applied whenever a person (or small group) was subject to a personal attack during a broadcast. Stations had to notify such persons (or groups) within a week of the attack, send them transcripts of what was said and offer the opportunity to respond on-the-air. The "political editorial" rule applied when a station broadcast editorials endorsing or opposing candidates for public office, and stipulated that the unendorsed candidates be notified and allowed a reasonable opportunity to respond.
Most of today's tweets and Facebook posts and heated cable TV political commentary would be illegal if we still had the Fairness Doctrine. The rise of polarization and outrage has followed the exit of the Fairness Doctrine. Americans got along better before it went away.

Sometimes it takes a few decades for the results of regulatory change to make themselves clear. That is my concern with many of the EPA regulations that Trump is eliminating. In three decades, we will probably discover a host of new illnesses that were caused by these decisions. Undoubtedly, the more densely populated states will suffer the most.

iris lily

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #41 on: July 20, 2019, 10:36:10 AM »
CONGRATULATIONS AMERICA! :)

S&P 500 closed at 3013.77!!



The greatest country the world has ever known!
Sweetie, good news that in any way could be interpreted to reflect positively on Donald Trump just is not something most here “hear.”

If you can explain the strong markets in terms that are anti-Trump, there’s your ticket.

I too celebrate the strong stock market.

Alfred J Quack

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #42 on: July 20, 2019, 10:54:22 AM »
CONGRATULATIONS AMERICA! :)

S&P 500 closed at 3013.77!!



The greatest country the world has ever known!
Sweetie, good news that in any way could be interpreted to reflect positively on Donald Trump just is not something most here “hear.”

If you can explain the strong markets in terms that are anti-Trump, there’s your ticket.

I too celebrate the strong stock market.

To quote the Wolf of Wall Street:
Quote
Number one rule of Wall Street. Nobody... and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or if you're Jimmy Buffet. Nobody knows if a stock is gonna go up, down, sideways or in fucking circles. Least of all, stockbrokers, right?[/]

Although the tariffs will probably directly affect thearket, most other things are the market responding to its own Influences where the US president is basically a small player. In my opinion.

The stock market has basically been growing for the last 10 years with a few distinct dips. One of those dips coincides with Trump's presidency, does that mean it's his fault?

minimalistgamer

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #43 on: July 20, 2019, 11:06:03 AM »
Ladies and gentlemen, I have to quit this thread. It wasn't meant to be a reflection on the current President. Where I come from, our politics do not revolve around the Prime minister. We just don't care about it as much. I obviously misunderstood this community. It seems a lot of you dislike the president (which is fine, I don't care).

And I have to agree with those that say I can't really post anything that might be construed as a positive reflection of the President because it gets people riled up.

I thought a finance community would be celebrating our economic achievements. I understand this is not truly the case. Again, sorry if I offended anyone. Please understand that I come from a different culture, and I do not quite share the same values (clearly), but I am not here to try and disrupt the established order. Henceforth, I will keep in mind that conservatives should watch their step (although I am not a conservative by any means).

Davnasty

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #44 on: July 22, 2019, 10:19:48 AM »
Ladies and gentlemen, I have to quit this thread. It wasn't meant to be a reflection on the current President. Where I come from, our politics do not revolve around the Prime minister. We just don't care about it as much. I obviously misunderstood this community. It seems a lot of you dislike the president (which is fine, I don't care).

And I have to agree with those that say I can't really post anything that might be construed as a positive reflection of the President because it gets people riled up.

I thought a finance community would be celebrating our economic achievements. I understand this is not truly the case. Again, sorry if I offended anyone. Please understand that I come from a different culture, and I do not quite share the same values (clearly), but I am not here to try and disrupt the established order. Henceforth, I will keep in mind that conservatives should watch their step (although I am not a conservative by any means).

Just as an fyi, I think this comment may have caused some to make assumptions about your intent.

This country is the beacon of hope for lawful immigrants who work hard and play by the rules.

At face value, there's nothing wrong with this and you seem sincere. However, this is a common refrain for conservatives, some of whom aren't familiar with how complex following the rules can be and some of whom are knowingly using it as a political dog whistle.

For many, particularly those south of the border, following the rules means immigrating to the US could take an extremely long time and meanwhile they are often given the runaround when rules are applied inconsistently and arbitrarily by understaffed immigration courts. I realize you are an immigrant, but not everyone's path coming into the US is the same.

As a recent example, the Trump administration is currently attempting to create law through executive order which would require asylum seekers to apply for asylum in any country they pass through on the way to the US. Sounds reasonable in theory, but then you look at a map and realize that this means everyone south of Mexico must pass through Mexico. Everyone south of Guatemala must pass through Guatemala. And still, if both of these countries had capable asylum programs, that might be ok, but the reality is that they would not be able to process anywhere near the volume of the number of people this would affect.

Quote
Since 2015, Guatemala has received only about 92 cases a year for asylum processing.

...

roughly 50,000 Hondurans and Salvadorans applied for asylum in the United States in 2018

https://www.humanrightsfirst.org/resource/guatemala-safe-refugees-and-asylum-seekers

This rule would have sent all 50,000 of those people to the Guatemalan asylum system which has never experienced more than a few hundred applications in a year. As such, it is a de facto ban on applying for Asylum in the US for most everyone from Honduras, El Salvdor, and other South American countries.

I realize you aren't interested in getting into this discussion, just wanted to give some insight into why this topic can get people worked up and giving responses that seem uncalled for.

TL;DR - The history and discourse around political issues has created phrases which carry more meaning than the words themselves.

Please don't worry about disrupting "established order". We can't learn if we just keep saying the same things over and over.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #45 on: July 22, 2019, 10:59:52 AM »
As a recent example, the Trump administration is currently attempting to create law through executive order which would require asylum seekers to apply for asylum in any country they pass through on the way to the US. Sounds reasonable in theory, but then you look at a map and realize that this means everyone south of Mexico must pass through Mexico. Everyone south of Guatemala must pass through Guatemala. And still, if both of these countries had capable asylum programs, that might be ok, but the reality is that they would not be able to process anywhere near the volume of the number of people this would affect.
I agree that the immigration/naturalization process is stupidly and unnecessarily bureaucratic.

As I understand it, we're talking about two different things here (and please correct me if/when I say something that isn't so!).  There's regular old immigration, and there's seeking asylum.  Asylum is intended for people who are being actively persecuted in their home country, due to religion, politics, race, etc, but "my country is poor" doesn't qualify (as I understand it).  It makes sense from a humanitarian perspective to allow asylum-seekers into the country immediately (to avoid the persecution), and sort out the details later.  The problem is that people have realized that claiming asylum is a fast-track into the country, and so there is a large (majority) of claims that are bogus (and denied), and it's clogging up the system, despite the numbers of additional judges assigned to it.

You're right that Guatemala and Mexico probably don't have the capability of handling the huge number of asylum cases.  But it's a supply-and-demand thing.  If you reduce the incentive (i.e. being allowed into the US by default), people will be less motivated to file spurious claims in the hope that they'll slip through the cracks.

partgypsy

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #46 on: July 22, 2019, 11:05:27 AM »
I'm not going to celebrate per se that the stock market is up. The current administration policies (tax cuts for the rich and corporations) was designed to stimulate the stock market as well as benefit those owning companies. Keeping interest rates low when both the stock market and the economy are doing well, is not the best plan given that there will be no room for the Fed to "move" when the economy falters. The admin is also rolling back environmental protections that protect US citizens but, hey not paying for air pollution remediation will put more $ in the pockets of those companies. Same thing for allowing private companies to pay discount rates on US public lands, from everything from water to wood to oil and other ores.
Yes, all of those things will and do stimulate the economy. But they are short-sighted and ultimately non sustainable ways to build an economy. It's like burning all your tinder versus using it to build a fire. In the same way Trump is trying to reduce ALL immigration (well except for certain european countries), cutting the number of green cards and work and education visa for countries on his list. Doesn't matter if they are law abiding, highly educated, or contribute to this country, he is making it difficult for those people to renew visas. This will also end up undermining our economy.

So what I'm saying is, yes these things artificially boost the economy. The economy IS doing well right now. How long that will last, I don't know, and when it does happen we will meet it with already low interest rates, higher deficit and there will be very little room to move to minimize the impact.   

Wilson Hall

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #47 on: July 22, 2019, 11:27:56 AM »
Ladies and gentlemen, I have to quit this thread. It wasn't meant to be a reflection on the current President. Where I come from, our politics do not revolve around the Prime minister. We just don't care about it as much. I obviously misunderstood this community. It seems a lot of you dislike the president (which is fine, I don't care).

And I have to agree with those that say I can't really post anything that might be construed as a positive reflection of the President because it gets people riled up.

I thought a finance community would be celebrating our economic achievements. I understand this is not truly the case. Again, sorry if I offended anyone. Please understand that I come from a different culture, and I do not quite share the same values (clearly), but I am not here to try and disrupt the established order. Henceforth, I will keep in mind that conservatives should watch their step (although I am not a conservative by any means).



I don't think an apology is necessary, MG. You may count me among those who despise the current president, yet I don't think the sorry state of his administration means that none of us are allowed to celebrate, ever, for any reason. A lot of people apparently believe they must constantly express outrage to demonstrate what virtuous people they are, and I, for one, am tired of it.

Peace.

Davnasty

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #48 on: July 22, 2019, 12:35:53 PM »
As a recent example, the Trump administration is currently attempting to create law through executive order which would require asylum seekers to apply for asylum in any country they pass through on the way to the US. Sounds reasonable in theory, but then you look at a map and realize that this means everyone south of Mexico must pass through Mexico. Everyone south of Guatemala must pass through Guatemala. And still, if both of these countries had capable asylum programs, that might be ok, but the reality is that they would not be able to process anywhere near the volume of the number of people this would affect.
I agree that the immigration/naturalization process is stupidly and unnecessarily bureaucratic.

As I understand it, we're talking about two different things here (and please correct me if/when I say something that isn't so!).  There's regular old immigration, and there's seeking asylum.  Asylum is intended for people who are being actively persecuted in their home country, due to religion, politics, race, etc, but "my country is poor" doesn't qualify (as I understand it).  It makes sense from a humanitarian perspective to allow asylum-seekers into the country immediately (to avoid the persecution), and sort out the details later.  The problem is that people have realized that claiming asylum is a fast-track into the country, and so there is a large (majority) of claims that are bogus (and denied), and it's clogging up the system, despite the numbers of additional judges assigned to it.

You're right that Guatemala and Mexico probably don't have the capability of handling the huge number of asylum cases.  But it's a supply-and-demand thing.  If you reduce the incentive (i.e. being allowed into the US by default), people will be less motivated to file spurious claims in the hope that they'll slip through the cracks.

Yes, they are two different things. My example probably wasn't the best one given the context, but it does tie into the original idea of "I'm fine with immigrants as long as they follow the rules" because the rules are often bogus. This example was the first to come to mind because it's going on right now.

And if we don't want immigrants who are not in danger applying for asylum, I think the only way to change that is to incentivize them. Give them a legitimate path to citizenship with a visible beginning and end, and more people will take it. Violating International (and US) law to stop all asylum seekers, even those with legitimate claims, is not an acceptable solution.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: I am glad they were wrong!
« Reply #49 on: July 22, 2019, 12:56:21 PM »
As I understand it, we're talking about two different things here (and please correct me if/when I say something that isn't so!).  There's regular old immigration, and there's seeking asylum.  Asylum is intended for people who are being actively persecuted in their home country, due to religion, politics, race, etc, but "my country is poor" doesn't qualify (as I understand it).  It makes sense from a humanitarian perspective to allow asylum-seekers into the country immediately (to avoid the persecution), and sort out the details later.  The problem is that people have realized that claiming asylum is a fast-track into the country, and so there is a large (majority) of claims that are bogus (and denied), and it's clogging up the system, despite the numbers of additional judges assigned to it.

You're right that Guatemala and Mexico probably don't have the capability of handling the huge number of asylum cases.  But it's a supply-and-demand thing.  If you reduce the incentive (i.e. being allowed into the US by default), people will be less motivated to file spurious claims in the hope that they'll slip through the cracks.

Yes, they are two different things. My example probably wasn't the best one given the context, but it does tie into the original idea of "I'm fine with immigrants as long as they follow the rules" because the rules are often bogus. This example was the first to come to mind because it's going on right now.

And if we don't want immigrants who are not in danger applying for asylum, I think the only way to change that is to incentivize them. Give them a legitimate path to citizenship with a visible beginning and end, and more people will take it. Violating International (and US) law to stop all asylum seekers, even those with legitimate claims, is not an acceptable solution.
Hey, I'm with you all the way on the need for reforming the immigration system.

IANAL, and I don't know all the ins and outs of what POTUS can legally do WRT asylum claims.  What I *do* understand, however, is that the current asylum system is poorly designed and thus is being exploited and abused, and POTUS appears to be trying to enforce the intent of that law.  Open borders advocates have little incentive to advocate for fixing the asylum system, because it's working (or not working) the way they'd like, and and will naturally oppose any attempt to enforce the spirit of the law.

What mystifies me is why the immigration process is so byzantine.  I can understand administering citizenship tests, and I can understand limiting the number of immigrants, or discriminating (per the dictionary definition, not the politically-charged meaning) based on qualifications, but the amount of time it takes, and all the red tape required, is ridiculous.