Author Topic: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...  (Read 24290 times)

nereo

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #50 on: January 06, 2016, 10:16:12 AM »
I lived in a shitty school district and my parents were poor so I went to a shitty public school.  Because of that I was barely able to learn anything, barely able to attend college nearly free based on merit, and barely able to get a job as an engineer.  Now I am barely be able to live a happy and successful life and won't be able to retire until about 40, or maybe even 45.  Thanks mom and dad for ruining my life by not sending me to an over priced and elite private school.
have you considered suing them?  I honestly don't know how you can put up with that level of oppression. 

charis

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #51 on: January 06, 2016, 10:17:36 AM »
I have two children to retire I need all three of following

1. 1000k house freehold close town
2. 1000k in savings (buys 40k income forever)
3. 1000k private school and university two kids


So 3mio net savings across lifetime. Take away 3. I need 2mio.


Holy cow - you estimate that you need 1,000,000 ($1.46MM) for the education of two kids?  That blows me away - even the US Ivy-league schools list for $50k/year if you don't get a cent of aid.  Your two kids could both go to Harvard and you're still budgeting $1MM for their private schools?  I'm sure you can spend that much on just tuition, but... wow...

And for what? What are you hoping to achieve (or that your children will achieve) for an almost 1.4 million-dollar education?  I am truly curious.

frugalnacho

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #52 on: January 06, 2016, 10:19:27 AM »
I lived in a shitty school district and my parents were poor so I went to a shitty public school.  Because of that I was barely able to learn anything, barely able to attend college nearly free based on merit, and barely able to get a job as an engineer.  Now I am barely be able to live a happy and successful life and won't be able to retire until about 40, or maybe even 45.  Thanks mom and dad for ruining my life by not sending me to an over priced and elite private school.
have you considered suing them?  I honestly don't know how you can put up with that level of oppression.

I'm not networked with any lawyers unfortunately. Strike 2 mom and dad.   

nereo

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #53 on: January 06, 2016, 11:09:29 AM »
I lived in a shitty school district and my parents were poor so I went to a shitty public school.  Because of that I was barely able to learn anything, barely able to attend college nearly free based on merit, and barely able to get a job as an engineer.  Now I am barely be able to live a happy and successful life and won't be able to retire until about 40, or maybe even 45.  Thanks mom and dad for ruining my life by not sending me to an over priced and elite private school.
have you considered suing them?  I honestly don't know how you can put up with that level of oppression.

I'm not networked with any lawyers unfortunately. Strike 2 mom and dad.   
seems like a case the ACLU should take up, pro-bono.

MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #54 on: January 06, 2016, 11:55:00 AM »
I have two children to retire I need all three of following

1. 1000k house freehold close town
2. 1000k in savings (buys 40k income forever)
3. 1000k private school and university two kids


So 3mio net savings across lifetime. Take away 3. I need 2mio.


Holy cow - you estimate that you need 1,000,000 ($1.46MM) for the education of two kids?  That blows me away - even the US Ivy-league schools list for $50k/year if you don't get a cent of aid.  Your two kids could both go to Harvard and you're still budgeting $1MM for their private schools?  I'm sure you can spend that much on just tuition, but... wow...

And for what? What are you hoping to achieve (or that your children will achieve) for an almost 1.4 million-dollar education?  I am truly curious.
That is how much it costs over here if you go private and pay for university for two kids 500k each.

School fees around 15k pa each grows at 5% inflation if you discount it back in today's at money at 3% equivalent of 500k or 1mio for two.

 

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frugalnacho

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #55 on: January 06, 2016, 12:01:33 PM »
I have two children to retire I need all three of following

1. 1000k house freehold close town
2. 1000k in savings (buys 40k income forever)
3. 1000k private school and university two kids


So 3mio net savings across lifetime. Take away 3. I need 2mio.


Holy cow - you estimate that you need 1,000,000 ($1.46MM) for the education of two kids?  That blows me away - even the US Ivy-league schools list for $50k/year if you don't get a cent of aid.  Your two kids could both go to Harvard and you're still budgeting $1MM for their private schools?  I'm sure you can spend that much on just tuition, but... wow...

And for what? What are you hoping to achieve (or that your children will achieve) for an almost 1.4 million-dollar education?  I am truly curious.
That is how much it costs over here if you go private and pay for university for two kids 500k each.

School fees around 15k pa each grows at 5% inflation if you discount it back in today's at money at 3% equivalent of 500k or 1mio for two.

 

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Why don't you move to a less ridiculous place then?

nereo

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #56 on: January 06, 2016, 12:11:24 PM »
I have two children to retire I need all three of following

1. 1000k house freehold close town
2. 1000k in savings (buys 40k income forever)
3. 1000k private school and university two kids


So 3mio net savings across lifetime. Take away 3. I need 2mio.


Holy cow - you estimate that you need 1,000,000 ($1.46MM) for the education of two kids?  That blows me away - even the US Ivy-league schools list for $50k/year if you don't get a cent of aid.  Your two kids could both go to Harvard and you're still budgeting $1MM for their private schools?  I'm sure you can spend that much on just tuition, but... wow...

And for what? What are you hoping to achieve (or that your children will achieve) for an almost 1.4 million-dollar education?  I am truly curious.
That is how much it costs over here if you go private and pay for university for two kids 500k each.

School fees around 15k pa each grows at 5% inflation if you discount it back in today's at money at 3% equivalent of 500k or 1mio for two.

Where, exactly, is "here"?  I'm assuming the UK since you are using pounds sterling ().  I cannot find a single university that charges 250k per child, even including rent.  Oxford and Cambridge are both estimated to cost 50k (tuition, rent and fees included) total.  Spoken two two recent UK graduates who both think your estimates are bunk.

Similarly, 15k/yr x 2 adds is 30k/year.  You could sustain that for all 12 years of their education for 360k.  No idea why you'd calculate 5% inflation, only to discount it back 3%.  Either your discussing today's or at a future date; either way it's irrelevant.  Most prefer to talk about it in real-adjusted terms to avoid this kind of mathematical gymnastics.

Good news!  It looks like education is going to cost a scant fraction of what you think it will! 

MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #57 on: January 06, 2016, 12:15:37 PM »
I have two children to retire I need all three of following

1. 1000k house freehold close town
2. 1000k in savings (buys 40k income forever)
3. 1000k private school and university two kids


So 3mio net savings across lifetime. Take away 3. I need 2mio.


Holy cow - you estimate that you need 1,000,000 ($1.46MM) for the education of two kids?  That blows me away - even the US Ivy-league schools list for $50k/year if you don't get a cent of aid.  Your two kids could both go to Harvard and you're still budgeting $1MM for their private schools?  I'm sure you can spend that much on just tuition, but... wow...

And for what? What are you hoping to achieve (or that your children will achieve) for an almost 1.4 million-dollar education?  I am truly curious.
That is how much it costs over here if you go private and pay for university for two kids 500k each.

School fees around 15k pa each grows at 5% inflation if you discount it back in today's at money at 3% equivalent of 500k or 1mio for two.

Where, exactly, is "here"?  I'm assuming the UK since you are using pounds sterling ().  I cannot find a single university that charges 250k per child, even including rent.  Oxford and Cambridge are both estimated to cost 50k (tuition, rent and fees included) total.  Spoken two two recent UK graduates who both think your estimates are bunk.

Similarly, 15k/yr x 2 adds is 30k/year.  You could sustain that for all 12 years of their education for 360k.  No idea why you'd calculate 5% inflation, only to discount it back 3%.  Either your discussing today's or at a future date; either way it's irrelevant.  Most prefer to talk about it in real-adjusted terms to avoid this kind of mathematical gymnastics.

Good news!  It looks like education is going to cost a scant fraction of what you think it will!
AgeChild One
415,000
515,750
616,538
717,364
818,233
919,144
1020,101
1121,107
1222,162
1323,270
1424,433
1525,655
1626,938
1728,285
1829,699
University 62,368
University 65,486
University 68,761
University 72,199
University 75,809

That is without school trips uniforms food etc

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MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #58 on: January 06, 2016, 12:22:47 PM »
I have two children to retire I need all three of following

1. 1000k house freehold close town
2. 1000k in savings (buys 40k income forever)
3. 1000k private school and university two kids


So 3mio net savings across lifetime. Take away 3. I need 2mio.


Holy cow - you estimate that you need 1,000,000 ($1.46MM) for the education of two kids?  That blows me away - even the US Ivy-league schools list for $50k/year if you don't get a cent of aid.  Your two kids could both go to Harvard and you're still budgeting $1MM for their private schools?  I'm sure you can spend that much on just tuition, but... wow...

And for what? What are you hoping to achieve (or that your children will achieve) for an almost 1.4 million-dollar education?  I am truly curious.
That is how much it costs over here if you go private and pay for university for two kids 500k each.

School fees around 15k pa each grows at 5% inflation if you discount it back in today's at money at 3% equivalent of 500k or 1mio for two.

Where, exactly, is "here"?  I'm assuming the UK since you are using pounds sterling ().  I cannot find a single university that charges 250k per child, even including rent.  Oxford and Cambridge are both estimated to cost 50k (tuition, rent and fees included) total.  Spoken two two recent UK graduates who both think your estimates are bunk.

Similarly, 15k/yr x 2 adds is 30k/year.  You could sustain that for all 12 years of their education for 360k.  No idea why you'd calculate 5% inflation, only to discount it back 3%.  Either your discussing today's or at a future date; either way it's irrelevant.  Most prefer to talk about it in real-adjusted terms to avoid this kind of mathematical gymnastics.

Good news!  It looks like education is going to cost a scant fraction of what you think it will!
AgeChild One
415,000
515,750
616,538
717,364
818,233
919,144
1020,101
1121,107
1222,162
1323,270
1424,433
1525,655
1626,938
1728,285
1829,699
University 62,368
University 65,486
University 68,761
University 72,199
University 75,809

That is without school trips uniforms food etc

Sent from my SM-N910C using Tapatalk
Education inflation has compounded at 5% minimum I have comprehensive  figures on this.

I can get around 1.5% on a ten year gilt.

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charis

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #59 on: January 06, 2016, 12:24:34 PM »
So your answer to my question is that is what private school costs where you live?  So there is only one private elementary school, one private secondary school, one private university, and no public schools in your area? 

I didn't realize that was possible, things in the UK are more dire than I would have ever expected.

nereo

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #60 on: January 06, 2016, 12:25:15 PM »

AgeChild One
415,000
515,750
616,538
717,364
818,233
919,144
1020,101
1121,107
1222,162
1323,270
1424,433
1525,655
1626,938
1728,285
1829,699
University 62,368
University 65,486
University 68,761
University 72,199
University 75,809

That is without school trips uniforms food etc

Sent from my SM-N910C using Tapatalk

Ok - first mistake, you are including inflation (and a rather large amount of inflation) in your estimate.  When I say I'd like to have a 'stach of $800k for retirement plus a paid off home it's understood that the $800k is in 2016 dollars.  by 2046 that same account may have $1.9MM, but it's the exact same amount of money.  If you're trying to state that education is outpacing inflation by 5% (that is, educational costs - inflation = 5%) - that's not true.  the headline news stories all post the non-inflation adjusted increases. 

Second - you're including 5 years of university for each child - why? When will they stand on their own?

Third - your estimates for each year of college aren't that far off IF you're assuming 5% inflation - but that gets back to point #1... you're compounding inflation throughout your calculation.  If you treat it as real dollars I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by the results.

MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #61 on: January 06, 2016, 12:25:44 PM »
I have two children to retire I need all three of following

1. 1000k house freehold close town
2. 1000k in savings (buys 40k income forever)
3. 1000k private school and university two kids


So 3mio net savings across lifetime. Take away 3. I need 2mio.


Holy cow - you estimate that you need 1,000,000 ($1.46MM) for the education of two kids?  That blows me away - even the US Ivy-league schools list for $50k/year if you don't get a cent of aid.  Your two kids could both go to Harvard and you're still budgeting $1MM for their private schools?  I'm sure you can spend that much on just tuition, but... wow...

And for what? What are you hoping to achieve (or that your children will achieve) for an almost 1.4 million-dollar education?  I am truly curious.
That is how much it costs over here if you go private and pay for university for two kids 500k each.

School fees around 15k pa each grows at 5% inflation if you discount it back in today's at money at 3% equivalent of 500k or 1mio for two.

Where, exactly, is "here"?  I'm assuming the UK since you are using pounds sterling ().  I cannot find a single university that charges 250k per child, even including rent.  Oxford and Cambridge are both estimated to cost 50k (tuition, rent and fees included) total.  Spoken two two recent UK graduates who both think your estimates are bunk.

Similarly, 15k/yr x 2 adds is 30k/year.  You could sustain that for all 12 years of their education for 360k.  No idea why you'd calculate 5% inflation, only to discount it back 3%.  Either your discussing today's or at a future date; either way it's irrelevant.  Most prefer to talk about it in real-adjusted terms to avoid this kind of mathematical gymnastics.

Good news!  It looks like education is going to cost a scant fraction of what you think it will!
They'll be at university in 14 years trust me it won't be 50k.

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MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #62 on: January 06, 2016, 12:29:47 PM »

AgeChild One
415,000
515,750
616,538
717,364
818,233
919,144
1020,101
1121,107
1222,162
1323,270
1424,433
1525,655
1626,938
1728,285
1829,699
University 62,368
University 65,486
University 68,761
University 72,199
University 75,809

That is without school trips uniforms food etc

Sent from my SM-N910C using Tapatalk

Ok - first mistake, you are including inflation (and a rather large amount of inflation) in your estimate.  When I say I'd like to have a 'stach of $800k for retirement plus a paid off home it's understood that the $800k is in 2016 dollars.  by 2046 that same account may have $1.9MM, but it's the exact same amount of money.  If you're trying to state that education is outpacing inflation by 5% (that is, educational costs - inflation = 5%) - that's not true.  the headline news stories all post the non-inflation adjusted increases. 

Second - you're including 5 years of university for each child - why? When will they stand on their own?

Third - your estimates for each year of college aren't that far off IF you're assuming 5% inflation - but that gets back to point #1... you're compounding inflation throughout your calculation.  If you treat it as real dollars I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by the results.
I'm a trained actuary these are in today's  do the maths.

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nereo

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #63 on: January 06, 2016, 12:32:52 PM »

They'll be at university in 14 years trust me it won't be 50k.

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But that's just it -  I don't trust [your numbers]. 
Quote
I'm a trained actuary these are in today's  do the maths.
Millions of Brits go to university every year and manage to spend a fraction of the 250k you are quoting.  If you are saying that inflation will mean that the price will be more in 2030 than it is in 2016 than I absolutely agree with you....but if you are claiming that the cost of education will increase 5%/year after inflation for the next 14 years I think that's crazy.  The percentage of people who could afford to attend a university at those rates would be miniscule - if that's what UK universities ultimately cost there are dozens of alternatives all over the globe.


arebelspy

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #64 on: January 06, 2016, 12:33:34 PM »
They'll be at university in 14 years trust me it won't be 50k.

I'm a trained actuary these are in today's  do the maths.

These two statements are contradictory.  If they're in today's dollars, then your first statement makes no sense (because who cares that it won't be 50k in 14 years, we're talking today's dollars), and if you're saying it won't be 50k in 14 years (because future dollars), than your second statement isn't true.

Are the numbers you posted, specifically these:
Quote
University 62,368
University 65,486
University 68,761
University 72,199
University 75,809

In 2015 dollars or 2029-2033 (or 2025-2029, not sure if your 14 years will be the end of their college career or beginning) dollars?
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about us, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out our Now page to see what we're up to currently.

arebelspy

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #65 on: January 06, 2016, 12:34:30 PM »
Actually, at this point it's probably not worth it.

Multiple people have tried to convince MacBury that it won't cost that much, and (s)he's convinced it will. 

Okay.

Good luck to you!  :)
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about us, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out our Now page to see what we're up to currently.

MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #66 on: January 06, 2016, 12:38:08 PM »

They'll be at university in 14 years trust me it won't be 50k.

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But that's just it -  I don't trust [your numbers]. 
Quote
I'm a trained actuary these are in today's  do the maths.
Millions of Brits go to university every year and manage to spend a fraction of the 250k you are quoting.  If you are saying that inflation will mean that the price will be more in 2030 than it is in 2016 than I absolutely agree with you....but if you are claiming that the cost of education will increase 5%/year after inflation for the next 14 years I think that's crazy.  The percentage of people who could afford to attend a university at those rates would be miniscule - if that's what UK universities ultimately cost there are dozens of alternatives all over the globe.
Well of I have several spreadsheets of private school fees actual paid fees for last 30 years through top private schools in London and I can 100% assure you they have compounded annually at minimum of 5%.

It is entirely prudent when making large financial commitments to assume this will be maintained in the future.

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MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #67 on: January 06, 2016, 12:39:21 PM »
They'll be at university in 14 years trust me it won't be 50k.

I'm a trained actuary these are in today's  do the maths.

These two statements are contradictory.  If they're in today's dollars, then your first statement makes no sense (because who cares that it won't be 50k in 14 years, we're talking today's dollars), and if you're saying it won't be 50k in 14 years (because future dollars), than your second statement isn't true.

Are the numbers you posted, specifically these:
Quote
University 62,368
University 65,486
University 68,761
University 72,199
University 75,809

In 2015 dollars or 2029-2033 (or 2025-2029, not sure if your 14 years will be the end of their college career or beginning) dollars?
This are in future  yes but my 500k is a discounted present value of the liability.

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frugalnacho

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #68 on: January 06, 2016, 12:42:08 PM »
Well of I have several spreadsheets of private school fees actual paid fees for last 30 years through top private schools in London and I can 100% assure you they have compounded annually at minimum of 5%.

It is entirely prudent when making large financial commitments to assume this will be maintained in the future.

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charis

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #69 on: January 06, 2016, 12:44:29 PM »
Well of I have several spreadsheets of private school fees actual paid fees for last 30 years through top private schools in London and I can 100% assure you they have compounded annually at minimum of 5%.

It is entirely prudent when making large financial commitments to assume this will be maintained in the future.

I don't care about the math.  I'd like an answer to my previous question.  Is what are you expecting (your children) to achieve with 1.5 million dollar education?

nereo

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #70 on: January 06, 2016, 12:46:24 PM »
This are in future  yes but my 500k is a discounted present value of the liability.

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Then you aren't talking about needing 1MM for the education of your two children, but something far less.

Meh, I'm with arebelspy on this one - you are free to believe what you would like to believe.  I was merely trying to show you that your needs may be a fraction of what you anticipate.  I say this as an encouragement, and as someone with family in the UK.

I would be interested in seeing 30 years of data showing real-adjusted annual increases of 5%/yr over 30 years. 

frugalnacho

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #71 on: January 06, 2016, 12:48:43 PM »
Doesn't that seem unsustainable too?  I mean by those projections your kids will literally not be able to afford to send your grand kids to school because they won't earn enough in their lifetime to pay for an education because education costs outpace everything including incomes.  Except maybe healthcare, but that seems unsustainable too.

EDIT: I've seen the rise in education costs and experienced it first hand, and the only thing I could think about while experiencing it was that it was unsustainable and that some point you will no longer be able to recover the cost of the education.  I mean if an education was seriously $1M why would you even bother?
« Last Edit: January 06, 2016, 12:50:45 PM by frugalnacho »

MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #72 on: January 06, 2016, 01:06:30 PM »
Well of I have several spreadsheets of private school fees actual paid fees for last 30 years through top private schools in London and I can 100% assure you they have compounded annually at minimum of 5%.

It is entirely prudent when making large financial commitments to assume this will be maintained in the future.

I don't care about the math.  I'd like an answer to my previous question.  Is what are you expecting (your children) to achieve with 1.5 million dollar education?
This a retirement blog and you don't care about the math?

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MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #73 on: January 06, 2016, 01:07:38 PM »
Actually, at this point it's probably not worth it.

Multiple people have tried to convince MacBury that it won't cost that much, and (s)he's convinced it will. 

Okay.

Good luck to you!  :)
These are the discounted cashflows in today's

-15,000
-15,441.18
-15,895.33
-16,362.84
-16,844.10
-17,339.51
-17,849.50
-18,374.48
-18,914.91
-19,471.23
-20,043.91
-20,633.44
-21,240.31
-21,865.02
-22,508.11
-46,340.23
-47,703.18
-49,106.21
-50,550.51
-52,037.29

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MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #74 on: January 06, 2016, 01:11:51 PM »
This are in future  yes but my 500k is a discounted present value of the liability.

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Then you aren't talking about needing 1MM for the education of your two children, but something far less.

Meh, I'm with arebelspy on this one - you are free to believe what you would like to believe.  I was merely trying to show you that your needs may be a fraction of what you anticipate.  I say this as an encouragement, and as someone with family in the UK.

I would be interested in seeing 30 years of data showing real-adjusted annual increases of 5%/yr over 30 years.
I'm working off actual PAID fees the implied compound rate is actually greater than 5% for top schools like Kings, St Pauls and Westminster. These fees having been going up faster than CPI inflation owing to demand from foreign students etc.

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MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #75 on: January 06, 2016, 01:13:41 PM »
This are in future  yes but my 500k is a discounted present value of the liability.

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Then you aren't talking about needing 1MM for the education of your two children, but something far less.

Meh, I'm with arebelspy on this one - you are free to believe what you would like to believe.  I was merely trying to show you that your needs may be a fraction of what you anticipate.  I say this as an encouragement, and as someone with family in the UK.

I would be interested in seeing 30 years of data showing real-adjusted annual increases of 5%/yr over 30 years.
I'm working off actual PAID fees the implied compound rate is actually greater than 5% for top schools like Kings, St Pauls and Westminster. These fees having been going up faster than CPI inflation owing to demand from foreign students etc.

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5% is a nominal number. Inflation averaged closer to 3% recently so real inflation of 2%++

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MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #76 on: January 06, 2016, 01:19:13 PM »
This are in future  yes but my 500k is a discounted present value of the liability.

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Then you aren't talking about needing 1MM for the education of your two children, but something far less.

Meh, I'm with arebelspy on this one - you are free to believe what you would like to believe.  I was merely trying to show you that your needs may be a fraction of what you anticipate.  I say this as an encouragement, and as someone with family in the UK.

I would be interested in seeing 30 years of data showing real-adjusted annual increases of 5%/yr over 30 years.
To be clear the 500k is in today's money.

If you would like a Google doc spreadsheet anyone I can share the calculations with you. Put your own numbers you'll see.

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MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #77 on: January 06, 2016, 01:27:13 PM »
Doesn't that seem unsustainable too?  I mean by those projections your kids will literally not be able to afford to send your grand kids to school because they won't earn enough in their lifetime to pay for an education because education costs outpace everything including incomes.  Except maybe healthcare, but that seems unsustainable too.

EDIT: I've seen the rise in education costs and experienced it first hand, and the only thing I could think about while experiencing it was that it was unsustainable and that some point you will no longer be able to recover the cost of the education.  I mean if an education was seriously $1M why would you even bother?
Yes you are right but 1mio is cost for two children.

What you have to remember is the real incomes of the top 1% have far outstripped inflation this is another big factor driving private school fees.

I think lot of people sign up to private education because they had it but it was much cheaper in real terms back then and tax deductible!

Now they put their retirements at risk to fund it.

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arebelspy

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #78 on: January 06, 2016, 01:28:15 PM »
Well of I have several spreadsheets of private school fees actual paid fees for last 30 years through top private schools in London and I can 100% assure you they have compounded annually at minimum of 5%.

It is entirely prudent when making large financial commitments to assume this will be maintained in the future.

I don't care about the math.  I'd like an answer to my previous question.  Is what are you expecting (your children) to achieve with 1.5 million dollar education?
This a retirement blog and you don't care about the math?

This blog is about way more than money.

Also, just forum etiquette notes: Tapatalk sigs are annoying. You can turn them off in settings.  And replying to yourself 6 times in a row is unnecessary.  Sometimes you forget something, and make a second post, but that's probably about the limit of typical, otherwise just edit your previous post to include the 6 things you forgot.  :)
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cerat0n1a

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #79 on: January 06, 2016, 01:29:16 PM »
You're talking about a handful of the most expensive schools in the world,  Macbury. Come and live in Cambridge; I know several kids at my local state school whose parents are multi-millionaires.

If you really believe that private school fees are going to compound at that rate for the next 20+ years, I'd be looking into opening one, particularly as they're charities and hence tax exempt (they can pay what they like to their owner^H^H^H trustees and headmaster...)

Student loans in the UK aren't a bad deal; you're much better off saving to pay the deposit on your kids' first house over paying their way though uni.

MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #80 on: January 06, 2016, 01:41:28 PM »
You're talking about a handful of the most expensive schools in the world,  Macbury. Come and live in Cambridge; I know several kids at my local state school whose parents are multi-millionaires.

If you really believe that private school fees are going to compound at that rate for the next 20+ years, I'd be looking into opening one, particularly as they're charities and hence tax exempt (they can pay what they like to their owner^H^H^H trustees and headmaster...)

Student loans in the UK aren't a bad deal; you're much better off saving to pay the deposit on your kids' first house over paying their way though uni.
Look some confusion here I send my children to local state school. Not for financial reasons but more on theory based on Malcolm Gladwell's studies.

Lot of people don't understand the size of liability they are signing up to in their 20s and 30s and this can have a HUGE impact on their retirement.

The top schools are closer to 20k in today's money and boarding  35++ of after tax compounding at 5%. With rock bottom interest rates this is a brutal proposition.

This out of reach for the old middle class professionals I would suggest without huge sacrifice.

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nereo

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #81 on: January 06, 2016, 02:23:18 PM »
[
Lot of people don't understand the size of liability they are signing up to in their 20s and 30s and this can have a HUGE impact on their retirement.

The top schools are closer to 20k in today's money and boarding  35++ of after tax compounding at 5%. With rock bottom interest rates this is a brutal proposition.

This out of reach for the old middle class professionals I would suggest without huge sacrifice.


I would argue that some vastly overestimate how much it costs to actually raise children.  1MM (equivalent to $1.46MM USD currently) is enough to generate 40,000 ($58.5k) annually using a 4% WR.  This number would increase with inflation. That exceeds the median family income for both the US and the UK.  It's also enough to currently pay for two children to attend almost any top-tier private school.  Since you are planning on spending the entire sum over a 20 year period on education, a much higher WR could be used - even at 6% (60k/year indexed to inflation) the historical odds of success are over 76%.

This is a blog where we spend a lot on optimizing expenses and aligning our spending with our values.  To that end you are going to be met with a lot of incredulous speculation when you start giving these very high numbers of education.  As has been pointed out, there are much, much cheaper options if the goal is to give your children a high-quality private school education.  It's akin to picking a luxury car and basing all of your calculations on the cost of transportation based solely on this vehicle.  You certainly can spend that much, but you don't have to

Education for our children can often be presented as a sacred cow, with the assumption that the amount we spend equates to the level of education we receive and ultimately the success and happiness of our children.  To be sure some costly private schools can be demonstratively better than some public education systems.  But just like you don't have to spend 100k on a luxury vehicle to have something safe and reliable, you don't need to spend these astronomical sums to give your children a great future.

StetsTerhune

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #82 on: January 06, 2016, 05:10:06 PM »
Education for our children can often be presented as a sacred cow, with the assumption that the amount we spend equates to the level of education we receive and ultimately the success and happiness of our children.  To be sure some costly private schools can be demonstratively better than some public education systems.  But just like you don't have to spend 100k on a luxury vehicle to have something safe and reliable, you don't need to spend these astronomical sums to give your children a great future.

Perfectly said, Nereo. Thank you for that.

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MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #83 on: January 07, 2016, 04:13:43 AM »
Education for our children can often be presented as a sacred cow, with the assumption that the amount we spend equates to the level of education we receive and ultimately the success and happiness of our children.  To be sure some costly private schools can be demonstratively better than some public education systems.  But just like you don't have to spend 100k on a luxury vehicle to have something safe and reliable, you don't need to spend these astronomical sums to give your children a great future.

Perfectly said, Nereo. Thank you for that.

I'm a trained actuary ...
If I may quote The Princess Bride: "I could offer you my word as a Spaniard?" "No good, I've known too many Spaniards"
Strange you don't apply the same rigour to a simple school fee calculation that you do to your 'long term retirement pot'?

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StetsTerhune

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #84 on: January 07, 2016, 07:29:56 AM »
I'm a trained actuary ...
If I may quote The Princess Bride: "I could offer you my word as a Spaniard?" "No good, I've known too many Spaniards"
Strange you don't apply the same rigour to a simple school fee calculation that you do to your 'long term retirement pot'?

First off I don't what your response is in response to...

I guess the joke could be made that an actuary is someone who mistakes rigor for relevance.

I don't doubt the rigor of your calculations. Having looked read through the whole thread, it seems like you were setting up a straw man of how expensive schools are by choosing the most expensive schools in the UK currently, and then choosing the largest cost growth assumption you could justify (and I'm imagining you chose as low a discount rate as you could justify as well, but I didn't see what it was, apologies if I missed it). I'm sure your calculations were fine.

But I guess to expand on Rebel's "forum etiquette" advice -- If you're going to do a calculation purely to create a straw man to talk about how expensive private schools are... you should probably mention that's what you're doing. Otherwise threads get weird real fast. Which sure seems to have happened here.

MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #85 on: January 07, 2016, 08:48:18 AM »
Thanks -- Thought Police glad to see you are watching attentively over these posts. We wouldn't to set too many strawmen without your consent of course.

Again the figures are very conservative and they are FEES only excluding school trips uniforms food etc based off ACTUAL paid fees simply projected forward. I simply fail to see how this is not a reasonable assumption.



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MacBury

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #86 on: January 07, 2016, 09:00:30 AM »
Education for our children can often be presented as a sacred cow, with the assumption that the amount we spend equates to the level of education we receive and ultimately the success and happiness of our children.  To be sure some costly private schools can be demonstratively better than some public education systems.  But just like you don't have to spend 100k on a luxury vehicle to have something safe and reliable, you don't need to spend these astronomical sums to give your children a great future.

Perfectly said, Nereo. Thank you for that.

I'm a trained actuary ...
If I may quote The Princess Bride: "I could offer you my word as a Spaniard?" "No good, I've known too many Spaniards"
Show me your alternate calculations?

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frugalnacho

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #87 on: January 07, 2016, 09:06:40 AM »
Education for our children can often be presented as a sacred cow, with the assumption that the amount we spend equates to the level of education we receive and ultimately the success and happiness of our children.  To be sure some costly private schools can be demonstratively better than some public education systems.  But just like you don't have to spend 100k on a luxury vehicle to have something safe and reliable, you don't need to spend these astronomical sums to give your children a great future.

Perfectly said, Nereo. Thank you for that.

I'm a trained actuary ...
If I may quote The Princess Bride: "I could offer you my word as a Spaniard?" "No good, I've known too many Spaniards"
Show me your alternate calculations?

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I don't think people are questioning your calculations, they are questioning the values you use for inputs.  Your calculations may or may not be correct, but are still irrelevant when you are using an invalid inputs.

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #88 on: January 07, 2016, 10:04:24 AM »
Again the figures are very conservative and they are FEES only excluding school trips uniforms food etc based off ACTUAL paid fees simply projected forward. I simply fail to see how this is not a reasonable assumption.
Just for my education, can you give an example of the schools? Eton, Harrow, Haberdasher Aske's?

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #89 on: January 07, 2016, 10:05:04 AM »

Again the figures are very conservative and they are FEES only excluding school trips uniforms food etc based off ACTUAL paid fees simply projected forward. I simply fail to see how this is not a reasonable assumption.


Quote
Show me your alternate calculations?

As frugalnacho said, this isn't a matter of questioning your calculations, but of your inputs.  It's the inputs that I (and others) are having a hard time understanding.  People here are just trying to help and understand.

Here's the inputs that I either don't agree with, or cannot wrap my head around.
1) you have included 5 years of university per child, and private school from age 4 to age 23.
2) Your estimate for University, which you say is real-adjusted, goes up to 75k ($112k USD) for a single year.  You stated you are using a conservative estimate of a 5% annual increase over inflation.  Back-calculating, this indicates in input of 28,500 per year for (all?) expenses per year of university.  Then you calculations assume this will increase almost 3x in real-adjusted terms over hte next two decades.
3) the only option you are considering is keeping your children in a 15k (today's money) private school (includes all expenses) from age 4 through age 18. 

Here are the concerns I have with your inputs:
1a) why are you assuming 5 years of university, and why are you incurring all costs? UK universities typically offer undergraduate degrees in 3 years, and most masters programs are a single year.  Are you budgeting for undergraduate and two masters degrees?
2a) I believe your current estimate of what one year of university cost is way too high.  Currently, one year at many of the UK's top universities - including rent, books, tuition etc comes out to about 15k. Your inputs are assuming costs today are almost twice that.
2b) I think your assumption that costs will show a real-increase of 5%/year for the next decade are absurd.  At that level of increase the overwhelming majority of Brits could not afford to attend.
3a) there are many other options besides sending your child to the most expensive private schools available for 15 consecutive years. 

 

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #90 on: January 07, 2016, 10:39:52 AM »
EDIT: I've seen the rise in education costs and experienced it first hand, and the only thing I could think about while experiencing it was that it was unsustainable and that some point you will no longer be able to recover the cost of the education.  I mean if an education was seriously $1M why would you even bother?

I'm late to the dance, but this. 

At some point around $250-300k+ (in today's dollars) for an undergrad degree, I think a college education loses it's worth (from a financial perspective) for many careers.  Better to let the kid find a trade or entry level job out of HS and work their way up, plus supplement career development with online learning and courses as needed. 

$300k for college plus $100k of foregone earnings for 4 years of school = $400k difference in net worth at 4 years after HS graduation.  $400k is almost enough to retire on!  If prices ever reach $300k I'll sit my kids down and make them a proposition they can't refuse ("here's the cash; do what you will").


tobitonic

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #91 on: January 10, 2016, 09:40:20 PM »
I think the Common Core was terrible, and I think there's far too much testing, curriculum narrowing, and generally developmentally-inappropriate gobbledygook in our public schools.

We're likely going to homeschool our kids for the early childhood years and are strongly considering private (Montessori) for elementary, although that might change.

And yup, I'm a teacher. I strive to provide the most dev. appropriate education I can every day in my classroom. But my kids aren't going to be in my classroom.

Making Cookies

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #92 on: January 11, 2016, 11:02:41 AM »
EDIT: I've seen the rise in education costs and experienced it first hand, and the only thing I could think about while experiencing it was that it was unsustainable and that some point you will no longer be able to recover the cost of the education.  I mean if an education was seriously $1M why would you even bother?

I'm late to the dance, but this. 

At some point around $250-300k+ (in today's dollars) for an undergrad degree, I think a college education loses it's worth (from a financial perspective) for many careers.  Better to let the kid find a trade or entry level job out of HS and work their way up, plus supplement career development with online learning and courses as needed. 

$300k for college plus $100k of foregone earnings for 4 years of school = $400k difference in net worth at 4 years after HS graduation.  $400k is almost enough to retire on!  If prices ever reach $300k I'll sit my kids down and make them a proposition they can't refuse ("here's the cash; do what you will").

I agree. I know a family that invested in expensive, quality education and their eldest child (now middle aged) went on to work minimum wgae jobs b/c that made him happy. The pressure to succeed academically may have driven a wedge between the parents and child. I don't know.

shelivesthedream

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #93 on: January 13, 2016, 09:34:35 AM »
A someone who went to a top UK private school from age 5 to age 18 and then to a top university...

COST OF PRIVATE SCHOOL IN THE UK
Yes, it is actually expensive to go to Eton. Shock horror. However, there are dozens of excellent private schools that are not Eton. If you look at the GCSE and A Level results and find 80-90% are A or A*, you're onto a winner. After that it's just a matter of seeing if you agree with the school's ethos (which will play a minimal part in your child's everyday life, no matter how fancy the wording in the brochure), subjects offered/compulsory, and extra-curricular priorities. My school was huge on sport and music and meh about art, dance and drama. You don't have to pay for any 'extras' (e.g. School trips) if you don't want to but there will be a big expectation and you may disappoint your child so set a clear policy early.

If your child can't pass the entrance exams for a top school (based on GCSE and A Level), don't send them to a lesser school just because it's "private". Send them to a state school and get a tutor. Don't tutor your child for the 11+. It's pathetic. Looking over some past papers together and explaining how to do exams should be enough. If you need intensive tutoring to pass you'll need it just to keep up.

IS PRIVATE SCHOOL THE BEST CHOICE?
I would argue against private primary school. I think it's a waste of money. At that age it is up to YOU, the PARENT to teach your child the habits and character traits that will form a good adult. Do some research into predictors of future academic success. Very very few even mention school. But reading to/with your child every night... Wow! That can work wonders. At primary age it's not so much about learning academics as it is about practicing the three Rs, motor skills, being able to sit still and concentrate, and being interested in things.

When they get to secondary, have a look at your local state schools. Living near school and your school friends is a huge boon to a child. I "commuted" over an hour each way and my best friend lived over an hour in the opposite direction.

If you decide to go private, do not expect this to be a panacea. Anyone who can pay can get their child into a private school (fees and tutoring) so your child won't necessarily be surrounded by obedient geniuses. Lots of them will have enough disposable income to drink and smoke and pressure your child into all sorts of things. Some are disruptive. Private school is no guarantee of anything.

Finally, as someone said above, what do you want at the end of it all? I am currently earning c. minimum wage in a creative job, which would have been easier for me to get if I spent less time on the school coach/doing homework. Your children's goals are not yours. You may not get any "return" on your "investment".

MY RECOMMENDATION
Budget for private school from 11-18. That's when it really worth developing specific academic interests and getting good exam results. State primary and let them get loans for university. (UK student loans are a great deal and all universities cost the same!)

Magilla

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #94 on: January 13, 2016, 11:13:59 AM »
Whenever the topic of "bestest schools for my super-duper awesome children" comes up I can't help but be amused.

Just a little anecdote:  I emigrated to the US (from a former Iron Curtain country right after the fall of said curtain) when I was 12 and entered 7th grade half-way through, barely being able to speak a word of English.  I went to school and I was  amazed and enthralled with it.  There were FREE books everywhere, there was a science lab fully equipped with everything you needed, ALL the professors were so helpful and the school looked so shiny and new to me.  I went into an ESL class with other immigrants, some who had been in ESL for a few years already.  Because my mother insisted we speak English as home as much as possible and I was a prolific reader, I was out of ESL and into regular class in less than 6 months.  I also participated in science fair, dissected a frog, played my first instrument, cooked stuff in HomeEc, built stuff in shop and generally was by far the best year of school I had had up to that point.

Years later I was talking to someone about what school I went to when I first came to US and when I told them the town they got this HORRIFIED look on their face and told me how horrible that school district was and I was lucky not to have been stabbed.  I guess perspective is everything.  I don't ever remember seeing anything this person envisioned for this school.

That's when I learned what a crock most school rankings and perceptions are.  Since that first US schools I've been through a "good" public school district, top 5 ranked private highschool (scholarship) and ivy league school and I can tell you with 100% confidence they all had very smart successful people and very dumb unsuccessful people.  Usually the difference between the two groups was not the amount of money they had but how much time and effort their parents spent with them and how much drive they had internally.  You can send you kids to the best schools in the world, if you don't instill in them curiosity, love of learning, work ethic and drive it's all for naught.

cerat0n1a

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #95 on: January 13, 2016, 11:54:23 AM »
Living near school and your school friends is a huge boon to a child. I "commuted" over an hour each way and my best friend lived over an hour in the opposite direction.


Strongly agree on this. Far too many parents seem to view childhood as merely preparation for adult life, rather than as a huge chunk of life, to be enjoyed. Why would you send your children off to a boarding school (unless you're in the army/on a oil rig or similar) Why make them get on the bus before 7am every day when they could be walking to school with their friends?

I worked out earlier that I'm probably quite a long way past the halfway mark in terms of how much time I'll spend with my children over the course of my life (unless we somehow end up in a multi-generational living type arrangement.)

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #96 on: January 13, 2016, 12:20:02 PM »
...it's all for naught.

And you can tell that Magilla got a quality education and is successful because he or she used the correct idiom instead of "all for not", which I see everywhere.

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #97 on: January 13, 2016, 01:03:36 PM »
Quote
And you can tell that Magilla got a quality education and is successful because he or she used the correct idiom instead of "all for not", which I see everywhere.

LOL, I hope I don't always get judged on my grammar and vocabulary.  I'm a techie who hasn't thought about these things since first year of college :)  Who knows what horrible things I have done to the English language in the many documents I've written since that time.

shelivesthedream

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Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #98 on: January 14, 2016, 12:09:20 AM »
Living near school and your school friends is a huge boon to a child. I "commuted" over an hour each way and my best friend lived over an hour in the opposite direction.


Strongly agree on this. Far too many parents seem to view childhood as merely preparation for adult life, rather than as a huge chunk of life, to be enjoyed. Why would you send your children off to a boarding school (unless you're in the army/on a oil rig or similar) Why make them get on the bus before 7am every day when they could be walking to school with their friends?

I worked out earlier that I'm probably quite a long way past the halfway mark in terms of how much time I'll spend with my children over the course of my life (unless we somehow end up in a multi-generational living type arrangement.)

My husband lived five minutes walk away from his school. He washing by 4.05pm every day, could walk home for lunch, could pop home in his free periods... If I was deathly ill I had to choose between waiting for hours until the end of the school day so I could get the coach home (arrive home maybe 5.30pm - NEVER in time to watch Blue Peter!) or get the school nurse to ring my mum and have her finish what she was doing, leave work, drive to pick me up and take me home... By which time it was basically half five anyway.

And my gosh, the morning routine as a teenager... Up at half six, leave the house by quarter past seven EVERY DAY from the age of five. Constant yelling to hurry up from my parents because if I missed the school bus that was it, there was no public transport option. I'm still catching up on lost sleep now!

CindyBS

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  • Posts: 451
Re: Guardian article on even the rich living paycheck to paycheck...
« Reply #99 on: January 23, 2016, 02:47:45 PM »
One thing I never heard discussed in the public/private school issue is how the kids who go to private school are (generally) robbed of valuable experiences to socialize with people from different backgrounds.  I realize this varies from school to school and parts of the country, but where we live - private schools are 1) white  2) upper middle-class to rich (with a few scholarship kids mixed in)  3) all native English speakers 4) all 1 religion - usually Catholic or Jewish  5) Completely devoid of kids with disabilities.

My husband works in IT engineering and says at least 1/4 of the people he works with are somewhere on the Autism Spectrum - diagnosed or not.   Then there aren all the visas for IT workers, most of whom are a different religion, different culture and speak English - but a different form of it (heavy Indian accent, British vocabulary, etc.)

If STEM careers are  the HOT field(s) of the future - how are kids supposed to interact if they have virtually NO experience with people from other groups.  Autism is now as just about as common for boys as having red hair - something like 1 in 40 something boys have it.  People with high functioning Autism do very well in sciences and engineering and are typically drawn to those fields for careers.  I don't see the visa situation changing anytime soon.  Add to that the fact that whites are becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of the population.   

Ability to interact with the "other" (insert race, religion, language, disability, etc.) will be a mandatory skill in the future workplace.