Author Topic: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale  (Read 5832 times)

clarkfan1979

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Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« on: March 19, 2023, 07:19:17 AM »
My dad bought a retirement house in Florida in January 2007 (age 57) for about 556K and sold it for about 431K in January 2016. My dad was planning on retiring in September 2011 (age 62) but they bought 4 years earlier due to FOMO. Because of the run-up in prices (2003-2006), they felt like they wouldn't be able to afford a retirement house in Florida if they wanted until 2011. In reality, if they waited until 2011, they could have got the same house for 350K.

New house was purchased in June 2014 for about 288K. It was a foreclosure that was on the market for a long time because it's a very low elevation lot near a river and canal with required flood insurance. The FEMA flood insurance program was constantly on the news around that time because the federal government said that they are going to start to pull back on funding for flood insurance. FEMA told everyone that flood insurance is going to increase a little each year for the next 10 years. From my dad's perspective he was getting a deal because the house was in bad shape. From my perspective, he was ignoring the cost of flood insurance, which is a big reason why the purchase price was lower than comps in the area.     

I explained to my father he should probably consider the cost of flood/home insurance into his calculations if this is going to be his forever home when he bought it in 2014, two months before his 65th birthday. He scoffed and said based on the lower price point of 287K that insurance doesn't matter. I explained to him that a mortgage can be paid off, but the cost of insurance will be forever and flood insurance is pretty much guaranteed to increase based on what the government is saying in 2014.

In 2020, I started to hear some unprovoked grumblings regarding the increased cost of the flood insurance. However, those grumblings were eventually evaporated by the hot real estate market. The neighbors next door sold their house for 630K in February 2022, so they immediately claimed their house is worth 800K because their house and property is larger. However, their neighbors house had much better upgrades. They gutted the house and re-did it. Their house was also 2-3 ft. higher and does not require flood insurance. In reality, at the peak, my parents house was worth 600K to 650K, in my opinion.

Post hurricane, their new combined flood insurance/home insurance is $950/month, so total PITI is around $2425/month.

My dad told me 3 days ago that they can't afford their new payment due to the higher insurance cost and will be putting the house on the market when it's complete.

Median house price for the area is 400K. Because they don't have enough equity to buy something in cash they are now going to be subject to the higher interest rates and getting a new 30-year mortgage at the age of 74 years old. I'm interested to see what happens with their next purchase. Will they buy something reasonable in their budget or stretch themselves to the max? Time will tell.

Total income for them is around 90K/year, so they are not going to starve.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2023, 07:25:14 AM by clarkfan1979 »

Dicey

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2023, 07:57:51 AM »
Sigh.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2023, 08:56:24 AM »
Frustrating.

And I know I've mentioned this before, but 55+ senior housing can be a great option.  Worth checking out.  And your dad could make easy cash doing always-needed handyman services in that community.

scantee

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2023, 09:34:45 AM »
Blows my mind that they can’t afford  ~$2500 in PITI even though they are bringing in $7500 a month. What in the world are they spending the other $5000+ on?
« Last Edit: March 19, 2023, 09:41:42 AM by scantee »

uniwelder

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2023, 07:01:49 AM »
What happened to their original Florida retirement house?  They one they bought in 2007 and then sold in 2016?  I guess they found a house they liked better in 2014, kept the original as a rental for a couple of years, then sold at a loss anyway?  Was the new retirement house that much better?

I'm also scratching my head as what they spend all their money on, that with 90-100k income, they can't afford the house or pay someone to do their taxes. 

Something I would caution @clarkfan1979 about is writing so much detail about your extended family's finances.  Writing about your own is entirely your choice, but I doubt your parents would like all this personal information revealed.  And meanwhile, here I am asking for even more info.  Maybe its because I'm asking about their reasoning, rather than financial details, but you can definitely choose not to answer.

clarkfan1979

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2023, 07:09:41 AM »
What happened to their original Florida retirement house?  They one they bought in 2007 and then sold in 2016?  I guess they found a house they liked better in 2014, kept the original as a rental for a couple of years, then sold at a loss anyway?  Was the new retirement house that much better?

I'm also scratching my head as what they spend all their money on, that with 90-100k income, they can't afford the house or pay someone to do their taxes. 

Something I would caution @clarkfan1979 about is writing so much detail about your extended family's finances.  Writing about your own is entirely your choice, but I doubt your parents would like all this personal information revealed.  And meanwhile, here I am asking for even more info.  Maybe its because I'm asking about their reasoning, rather than financial details, but you can definitely choose not to answer.

I will take your advice and refrain from getting more specific in the future regarding my parents numbers. The sales of the houses are public information. However, their insurance refund is privileged information and I'm guessing I may have crossed the line with that one. Because I have been doing their taxes for the past few years, it would be easy for me to make additional future mistakes and provide too much sensitive information. Thank you for the help.

Metalcat

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2023, 07:21:07 AM »
I also don't understand why they can't afford their home on their income.

It also sounds like they refinanced the house on top of selling stocks to cover their spending. What on earth are they spending on??

Their housing issues are tiny compared to their spending issues, which is the real cautionary tale here.

six-car-habit

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2023, 11:22:32 AM »
 If they sell the house, both scenarios will both be correct ---

  Dad will have gained roughly $100K on the sale of the flood-prone home [minus sales commissions, and the cost of improvements they've already sunk into it ] - and much less $$ than they had predicted. Hopefully he will not be bitter about " potential windfall lost ".
   Your thoughts that they'll get driven out by flood insurance costs is also correct, which makes it all the worse since you saw it coming, and tried to warn them away.

 To paraphrase another poster on here { sorry i can't remember who} - " Last time Dad, i gave you my best advice and you didn't want to follow it.  If you want my advice this time - should i offer my 2nd best advice instead ?. "

GilesMM

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2023, 12:44:13 PM »
Unless people are really keen for your financial advice, it is best not to offer it.  This goes double for family.

TheGrimSqueaker

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2023, 02:15:28 PM »
Unless people are really keen for your financial advice, it is best not to offer it.  This goes double for family.

When people want my advice, they ask for it. If they really want my advice, they offer to pay for it. If they aren't asking or offering to pay for my opinion, I take it as evidence that I ought to keep it to myself.

The_Big_H

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2023, 08:28:53 PM »
Alot of people really should just rent.

yeah its "throwing money away" but so is taking a $100k+ bath and paying thousands a year in flood insurance.


I'm also very suspicious of the term "forever home".  You cannot know where life will take you in advanced age (or really any age) or what will be ideal for you 5/10/15/20 years from now.  MOBILITY as a senior is actually quite important.  To quote an older friend of mine "your forever home is your coffin"

clarkfan1979

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2023, 05:12:04 AM »
The original intent of the post was supposed to be some info regarding Florida real estate and insurance concerns. However, there ended up being a rant regarding my parents and their money problems. I guess I'm a little frustrated. There is a little more to the story, but it was suggested to not get too specific with details and I think that is good advice.

Interestingly, I spoke to my brother on the phone yesterday. He actually called me, which doesn't happen often. He knew that I was hanging out with our parents for a few days and he called to ask how I thought they were doing. Unprovoked by me, he then explained that he had concerns about our parents being a little irresponsible with their spending. I think it's been slightly emotionally difficult for the both of us seeing them struggle at their older age. It then becomes frustrating when you see them do it to themselves. However, we both agreed to back off and let them figure it out.

I also wanted to say that I am thankful for this community, that I joined in 2014. From 1979 (birth) to 2011 (age 32), my biggest influencers regarding money and personal finance was probably from my parents. I appreciate their efforts. The problem is that their money advice is really bad advice. They have strengths in other areas, but money is not one of them. They are still very good people. I didn't really start to question their money advice until 2012-2013. My concerns were then validated in 2014 when I joined MMM. I am very thankful for the advice from this community and the positive impact it has had on my life. It's a little scary to think what my life would be like if I still took the money advice from my parents. 

 

Metalcat

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2023, 06:13:58 AM »
This place is literally filled with similar stories about people's financially irresponsible parents, mine included, so you are in very good company with many who have the same, or far, far worse stories than yours.

Vent away, IME, dealing with financially ridiculous parents is one of the most frustrating experiences like has to offer.

merula

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2023, 07:23:10 AM »
I work in property/casualty insurance. $950/month including flood is going to look crazy cheap in 10 years, so getting out now is for the best. The entire Florida insurance market is in a death spiral and these new regulations aren't going to fix the core problem of climate change.

jinga nation

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #14 on: March 22, 2023, 09:47:42 AM »
@clarkfan1979 I have a few rentals in the Tampa Bay area. Insurance increases are 20-30% annually, that's inland, not in flood zones. Plus property tax increases that are absurd. I'm contemplating selling as prices are 3-4x from when I purchased.

clarkfan1979

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2023, 01:19:08 PM »
@clarkfan1979 I have a few rentals in the Tampa Bay area. Insurance increases are 20-30% annually, that's inland, not in flood zones. Plus property tax increases that are absurd. I'm contemplating selling as prices are 3-4x from when I purchased.

@jinga nation I have one rental in Fort Myers that is not in a flood zone and about 3 miles inland from the gulf. My insurance went from $950 in 2020 to $1450 in 2021 and $2150 in 2022. This is all pre-hurricane Ian. My current policy expires August 7, 2023. I will get pricing for my new policy around June/July. The original policy provider (United Casualty) already left the state of Florida. They sold my policy to another company (Slide Insurance) about 6 weeks ago. Due to the hurricane there is a housing shortage and I'm expecting continued rent increases every year, so I"m keeping my rental at the moment.   

merula

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #16 on: March 23, 2023, 08:06:08 AM »
Y'all may get a short term reprieve in rate hikes with the new insurance legislation that was passed, but unfortunately even things that are "inland" in Florida are still showing up in the long-term wind models as being subject to potential total destruction within 30 years.

Basically the insurance companies are trying to collect the total replacement cost of your property over 30 years, plus non-wind perils, plus expenses and profit. 

Chris Pascale

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2023, 09:17:32 AM »
Sorry for your dad. I bought a home in NC in 2007 after balking in 2004. I balked because I didn't know the area very well and about to go to Iraq, so it wasn't an all-round terrible decision to wait.

The home I bought for $113,000 in 2007 was sold in Jan., 2020 for $131,000, bringing me a 1.1% return...........if you don't count any other costs.

Currently worth $207k, per Redfin.


lifeisshort123

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2023, 02:07:49 PM »
Real estate is hardly the guaranteed investment people claim that it is.  It’s why I refuse to get a HELOC despite how “smart it is” according to everyone I know.  I love knowing I have all this equity in my home, and can walk away from it if and when I choose to!

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2023, 03:44:37 PM »
I don’t know exact numbers, but was well aware of FL insurance due to my sister.  Lucky for them, their “starter” home bought in 2001, has worked well for them for 20+ years and is now paid off (they switched from a 30 to a 15 year loan when rates dropped).  I believe their insurance (normal and hurricane), is $4,500 a year.  My sis talks about how she credit card hacks her insurance bill.  Lots of other things can get you in FL insurance got ya’s.  They did some retrofitting a few years ago when replacing their roof that cut their bill by 25% to get to that high number.  This is a normal 80s 1700sqft 3/2 house.

LiveLean

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #20 on: March 30, 2023, 11:16:37 AM »
Our Florida homeowners insurance has gone from $1,200 a year to $6,500 a year since 2004 (same house) and I'm cringing with our renewal coming up in three months. We live on relatively high ground by FL standards and weren't required to have flood insurance when we had a mortgage, which we no longer do. We also pay $6,000 a year for auto insurance for our family of four that includes sons 17 and 20, even though one is in college 1000 miles away with no car. Shopping for insurance and dealing with it is a part-time job. It's hands down the worst part of living in the Sunshine State. When I moved here 25 years ago, I thought I was getting a 5 percent raise with no state-income tax, but that's more than negated by insurance costs now.


blue_green_sparks

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #21 on: April 02, 2023, 07:13:52 AM »
Insurance costs are not the big issue. The more important issues are to punish Disney, stop drag queen shows and to purify history and biology books used in schools. Our insurance costs have doubled, and we also have a rental. I have never filed a claim.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2023, 07:15:46 AM by blue_green_sparks »

Heckler

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #22 on: April 03, 2023, 07:45:05 PM »
I'm not so sure that flood insurance would be my biggest concern about Florida real estate.

https://conspiracyofcartographers.com/petrofuture-gallery/

PS - My house is literally waterfront in this 66 meter petrofuture.   However, I have no way to leave, and zero resources for sustenance.


« Last Edit: April 03, 2023, 07:49:20 PM by Heckler »

GilesMM

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #23 on: April 03, 2023, 08:27:58 PM »
Those new islands in central Florida are kinda cool!

LaineyAZ

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #24 on: April 04, 2023, 10:11:34 AM »
Neat website, Heckler, thanks for posting.

dcheesi

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #25 on: April 04, 2023, 10:46:53 AM »
I'm not so sure that flood insurance would be my biggest concern about Florida real estate.

https://conspiracyofcartographers.com/petrofuture-gallery/

PS - My house is literally waterfront in this 66 meter petrofuture.   However, I have no way to leave, and zero resources for sustenance.



According to this map, my dad's hometown (middle o' nowhere, GA) will also be beachfront! My relatives will be rich! Woohoo!
[EDIT: "/s" ]

Sibley

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #26 on: April 04, 2023, 10:51:49 AM »
That took me way too long to figure out. It's really interesting to see the different gradients too. What happens at 1 meter, 5 meters, etc. But it's not just absolute sea level, it's also tides, storm surges, etc. I'm already seeing articles about houses falling into the ocean. Some of them are funny in that they try to move back from the ocean 100 ft or a mile or whatever, when it's just a bandaid.

achvfi

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #27 on: April 04, 2023, 01:49:51 PM »
$1000 a month in home insurance cost is just bonkers. That is my entire mortgage payment.


sonofsven

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #28 on: April 11, 2023, 08:51:01 PM »
Those new islands in central Florida are kinda cool!

It's Key North, get in in the ground floor, units selling fast!

Dicey

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #29 on: April 11, 2023, 11:43:54 PM »
Neat website, Heckler, thanks for posting.
Thanks @Heckler! I think I'll be dead before my house becomes lakefront, per these maps. Looks like my rentals will be fine for even longer. Nice to have back-up plans.

farmecologist

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #30 on: April 12, 2023, 03:52:33 PM »
These insurance rates are an eye opener...and absolutely outrageous. 

However, I think it is indicative of a much, much larger problem.  The fact of the matter is that MANY places in Florida ( and other coastal areas ) should never have been built up in the first place.   It is a sad story of developer greed and governmental corruption.  And of course, homeowners end up paying for it...

« Last Edit: April 12, 2023, 03:54:46 PM by farmecologist »

Dicey

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #31 on: April 12, 2023, 06:01:47 PM »
These insurance rates are an eye opener...and absolutely outrageous. 

However, I think it is indicative of a much, much larger problem.  The fact of the matter is that MANY places in Florida ( and other coastal areas ) should never have been built up in the first place.   It is a sad story of developer greed and governmental corruption.  And of course, homeowners end up paying for it...
That's the usual trope, but there's another aspect to consider beyond that: people need places to live. The government is not in the business of building houses, that is where developers come in. Florida was developed because people wanted to live there.

GilesMM

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #32 on: April 12, 2023, 08:08:31 PM »
These insurance rates are an eye opener...and absolutely outrageous. 

However, I think it is indicative of a much, much larger problem.  The fact of the matter is that MANY places in Florida ( and other coastal areas ) should never have been built up in the first place.   It is a sad story of developer greed and governmental corruption.  And of course, homeowners end up paying for it...
That's the usual trope, but there's another aspect to consider beyond that: people need places to live. The government is not in the business of building houses, that is where developers come in. Florida was developed because people wanted to live there.


People need safe places to live, not coastal swamplands and wetlands that are under water with the first gust of wind and wave thanks to greedy developers and corrupt politicians.

Dicey

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #33 on: April 13, 2023, 06:41:00 AM »
These insurance rates are an eye opener...and absolutely outrageous. 

However, I think it is indicative of a much, much larger problem.  The fact of the matter is that MANY places in Florida ( and other coastal areas ) should never have been built up in the first place.   It is a sad story of developer greed and governmental corruption.  And of course, homeowners end up paying for it...
That's the usual trope, but there's another aspect to consider beyond that: people need places to live. The government is not in the business of building houses, that is where developers come in. Florida was developed because people wanted to live there.


People need safe places to live, not coastal swamplands and wetlands that are under water with the first gust of wind and wave thanks to greedy developers and corrupt politicians.
Sure, but people live where they want to live. If there were no buyers, the developers would quickly go bust.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #34 on: April 13, 2023, 07:00:54 AM »
These insurance rates are an eye opener...and absolutely outrageous. 

However, I think it is indicative of a much, much larger problem.  The fact of the matter is that MANY places in Florida ( and other coastal areas ) should never have been built up in the first place.   It is a sad story of developer greed and governmental corruption.  And of course, homeowners end up paying for it...
That's the usual trope, but there's another aspect to consider beyond that: people need places to live. The government is not in the business of building houses, that is where developers come in. Florida was developed because people wanted to live there.


People need safe places to live, not coastal swamplands and wetlands that are under water with the first gust of wind and wave thanks to greedy developers and corrupt politicians.
Sure, but people live where they want to live. If there were no buyers, the developers would quickly go bust.

I guess the response of all the taxpayers in the blue states would then be, You chose this location, you choose the consequences. 
That's harsh, but is it fair for these property owners in these climate-risky areas to expect to be rescued?   Would home buyers continue to buy if the federal gov't denied them this continual financial bailout?
I don't see this as a wise choice of government resources.

Dicey

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #35 on: April 13, 2023, 07:14:22 AM »
These insurance rates are an eye opener...and absolutely outrageous. 

However, I think it is indicative of a much, much larger problem.  The fact of the matter is that MANY places in Florida ( and other coastal areas ) should never have been built up in the first place.   It is a sad story of developer greed and governmental corruption.  And of course, homeowners end up paying for it...
That's the usual trope, but there's another aspect to consider beyond that: people need places to live. The government is not in the business of building houses, that is where developers come in. Florida was developed because people wanted to live there.

People need safe places to live, not coastal swamplands and wetlands that are under water with the first gust of wind and wave thanks to greedy developers and corrupt politicians.
Sure, but people live where they want to live. If there were no buyers, the developers would quickly go bust.

I guess the response of all the taxpayers in the blue states would then be, You chose this location, you choose the consequences. 
That's harsh, but is it fair for these property owners in these climate-risky areas to expect to be rescued?   Would home buyers continue to buy if the federal gov't denied them this continual financial bailout?
I don't see this as a wise choice of government resources.
As an admitted HGTV junkie, I cringe at series like "Beachfront Bargain Hunt". Stop promoting that shit already! But HGTV is all about providing content that viewers want. Apparently there are still enough people for whom "waterfront" equates to "success". It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

We 'Muricans love our freedoms, so this is definitely a complicated issue. Blaming greedy developers and corrupt governments is simplistic.

GilesMM

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #36 on: April 13, 2023, 08:03:56 AM »
These insurance rates are an eye opener...and absolutely outrageous. 

However, I think it is indicative of a much, much larger problem.  The fact of the matter is that MANY places in Florida ( and other coastal areas ) should never have been built up in the first place.   It is a sad story of developer greed and governmental corruption.  And of course, homeowners end up paying for it...
That's the usual trope, but there's another aspect to consider beyond that: people need places to live. The government is not in the business of building houses, that is where developers come in. Florida was developed because people wanted to live there.


People need safe places to live, not coastal swamplands and wetlands that are under water with the first gust of wind and wave thanks to greedy developers and corrupt politicians.
Sure, but people live where they want to live. If there were no buyers, the developers would quickly go bust.


Sure, but if there was reasonable governance the developers would not be allowed to build in unsuitable areas and the buyers would live elsewhere.

farmecologist

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #37 on: April 13, 2023, 08:44:54 AM »
These insurance rates are an eye opener...and absolutely outrageous. 

However, I think it is indicative of a much, much larger problem.  The fact of the matter is that MANY places in Florida ( and other coastal areas ) should never have been built up in the first place.   It is a sad story of developer greed and governmental corruption.  And of course, homeowners end up paying for it...
That's the usual trope, but there's another aspect to consider beyond that: people need places to live. The government is not in the business of building houses, that is where developers come in. Florida was developed because people wanted to live there.


People need safe places to live, not coastal swamplands and wetlands that are under water with the first gust of wind and wave thanks to greedy developers and corrupt politicians.
Sure, but people live where they want to live. If there were no buyers, the developers would quickly go bust.


Sure, but if there was reasonable governance the developers would not be allowed to build in unsuitable areas and the buyers would live elsewhere.

The usual trope?  Lol...Something tells me Dicey owns real estate in Florida.

People need places to live....sure.   However, I'd expand on that statement by saying "people need safe places to live".   And many, many places in FL are not safe at all.  This
was readily apparent far before these areas were built up.  Anyone with even a bit of common sense could see that.  Frankly, I put the blame squarely on corrupt developers and city planners. The "need places to live" argument just doesn't hold up here.  If that is your hill to die on, though...so be it.


Sibley

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #38 on: April 13, 2023, 09:03:37 AM »
Look, people are stupid. I recently joined an allergy group and the number of people asking if they can eat or do x even though they've got an allergy to y, and y is part of x is way higher than it should be. Sure, if you're allergic to tomatoes you can eat pizza with traditional tomato based sauce, but you're going to suffer the consequences.

Real estate is the same. People want to live on the beach, or in warm weather, or whatever. They aren't smart enough or have enough self control to think ahead and say, um, nope, not worth the future pain. Because that is future person's problem, not current person's problem.

GuitarStv

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #39 on: April 13, 2023, 09:14:03 AM »
Look, people are stupid. I recently joined an allergy group and the number of people asking if they can eat or do x even though they've got an allergy to y, and y is part of x is way higher than it should be. Sure, if you're allergic to tomatoes you can eat pizza with traditional tomato based sauce, but you're going to suffer the consequences.

Real estate is the same. People want to live on the beach, or in warm weather, or whatever. They aren't smart enough or have enough self control to think ahead and say, um, nope, not worth the future pain. Because that is future person's problem, not current person's problem.

Allergies are very wishy-washy.  Technically I'm allergic to shrimp.  If I eat 50 of them, my throat will swell up and I can't breathe.  But if I only eat a couple of them I just get some tingling in the back of my throat.  NBD.

TheGrimSqueaker

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #40 on: April 13, 2023, 09:26:56 AM »
The human stupidity issue arises partly from people's intense desire to believe that it's "ok", or safe for them, to embark on a risky course of action, having been informed of the risks. People want to have it both ways. They want the rewards of doing a risky thing-- the up-side, as it were-- but they want to dodge the down-side and be insulated from harm or loss when things go wrong.

It's a reasonable thing to want or desire. I want and desire a lot of things that aren't good for me, that I'm not going to get. This is why we have fantasies. But when it gets to the point where people want to act them out, eventually logical fallacies and sloppy thinking tend to dominate.

"It must be OK to do X, because these people did it and lived. The risk must be imaginary, or fake news, or the person telling me about the risk must have some financial incentive to discourage me." Repeat this long enough, and you get people who genuinely believe it's legal to drive five miles per hour over the posted speed limit, and that the cop who pulls them over is being evil and unreasonable.

Real estate developers aren't environmental scientists. Unless there's a regulatory authority dictating what environmental studies must be done after development, they don't assess the impact of the new development on the existing ecology. To cut down "just a few" trees from the windbreak seems like no big deal, although there's a cumulative effect when hundreds or even thousands of similar people are also dipping their beaks. A thousand beak dippers at the birdbath, each taking just a tiny amount, can have a big enough cumulative effect to permanently change the weather in the area. No individual raindrop believes it's responsible for the flood.

There was a time I fantasized about living in the St. Augustine area of Florida. After mature consideration I've decided not to retire there. Yes, the weather is a factor. As much as I like citrus and beaches, I don't think I'd enjoy hurricanes, floods, or large numbers of people who are out to get me because I don't bibble-babble to their imaginary sky buddy or do the specific things with my genitalia that they believe would suit their interests.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #41 on: April 13, 2023, 10:00:26 AM »
The Water Will Come: Rising Seas, Sinking Cities, and the Remaking of the Civilized World (Jeff Goodell) has an interesting chapter on land development in Florida.  Very recommended reading.

achvfi

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #42 on: April 13, 2023, 10:57:05 AM »
From yesterday Possible 20+ inches of rain in Ft Lauderdale.

https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/12k7zrs/possible_20_inches_of_rain_in_ft_lauderdale/

No wonder insurance companies are running for cover.

Is someone here from this area confirm if this is real?

TheGrimSqueaker

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #43 on: April 13, 2023, 01:43:16 PM »
From yesterday Possible 20+ inches of rain in Ft Lauderdale.

https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/12k7zrs/possible_20_inches_of_rain_in_ft_lauderdale/

No wonder insurance companies are running for cover.

Is someone here from this area confirm if this is real?

If it is, expect everyone's insurance rates to be hiked for years as a result. After 9/11, insurance rates skyrocketed for hotels and motels, because the two-story Econo-motel in West Armpit, Upstate NY was considered to be in the same risk category as the Twin Towers. Those costs were passed along to the consumer, resulting in price increases of 30% or more every time I traveled to upstate NY.

Every time the insurance industry is bitten in the rear by a black swan that is actually the result of stupid risk taking by irresponsible or short-sighted people, the industry response is to raise the rates for people who were behaving responsibly the whole time.

uniwelder

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #44 on: April 13, 2023, 01:43:44 PM »
From yesterday Possible 20+ inches of rain in Ft Lauderdale.

https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/12k7zrs/possible_20_inches_of_rain_in_ft_lauderdale/

No wonder insurance companies are running for cover.

Is someone here from this area confirm if this is real?

Yes it happened. https://www.npr.org/2023/04/13/1169646967/fort-lauderdale-rain-airport-closed-schools

Edited to add— it’s being reported the total was 26” over a 24 hour period with more to come. I think anyone living in the area is probably a bit occupied to reply directly here. You might just have to trust the news.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2023, 02:22:07 PM by uniwelder »

Dicey

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #45 on: April 13, 2023, 08:09:52 PM »

The usual trope?  Lol...Something tells me Dicey owns real estate in Florida.

People need places to live....sure.   However, I'd expand on that statement by saying "people need safe places to live".   And many, many places in FL are not safe at all.  This was readily apparent far before these areas were built up.  Anyone with even a bit of common sense could see that.  Frankly, I put the blame squarely on corrupt developers and city planners. The "need places to live" argument just doesn't hold up here. If that is your hill to die on, though...so be it.
You must have missed my other posts. Reading them might change what you wrote, especially the bolded.

prudent_one

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #46 on: April 14, 2023, 05:49:55 AM »
I can easily understand why someone today isn't too worried about how their home could be underwater many decades down the road from ice cap melt, even if they accept it as fact.  The insurance costs, though - that's a "right now" problem.  Livelean's example above shows an average of 9%+ annually for the last 19 years!  At that rate the insurance would be over $15K/year in just 10 more years. Yikes.

merula

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Re: Florida Real Estate: A cautionary tale
« Reply #47 on: April 17, 2023, 07:09:26 AM »
If it is, expect everyone's insurance rates to be hiked for years as a result. After 9/11, insurance rates skyrocketed for hotels and motels, because the two-story Econo-motel in West Armpit, Upstate NY was considered to be in the same risk category as the Twin Towers. Those costs were passed along to the consumer, resulting in price increases of 30% or more every time I traveled to upstate NY.

Every time the insurance industry is bitten in the rear by a black swan that is actually the result of stupid risk taking by irresponsible or short-sighted people, the industry response is to raise the rates for people who were behaving responsibly the whole time.

Yup. The industry is incentivized to overreact because insurance companies who underreact tend to go out of business (or need government bailout). And if all the companies overreact, what are you going to do?

(The hotel example specifically is partially because of state-by-state regulation, though. Insurance companies are required to be very specific with their rate filings to state Departments of Insurance, so if they want to charge for terrorism risk at hotels, they either have to charge at all hotels in the state or somehow differentiate in a way the state approves of. The former is much easier, especially because very few state DOIs (and definitely not NY or FL) will tell you what they'll accept ahead of time.)

It'll be interesting to see the confluence of market forces in Florida specifically. I can't see any carrier lowering prices to account for the new laws, even though it's a near certainty those laws will result in lower claim payments. It could be "well we have to wait and see how that impacts losses" and then "well, it's been awhile and we can't separate that benefit from further adversity in losses".

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!