Author Topic: crypto is the new MLM  (Read 21548 times)

BlueMR2

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #50 on: December 15, 2021, 03:11:48 PM »
Has anybody else experienced this as a particular trend with conservative or libertarian friends?

Opposite here.  The conservatives and libertarian friends don't trust it.  It's my liberal friends that are heavy into crypto.

Loren Ver

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #51 on: December 19, 2021, 05:52:28 PM »
Has anybody else experienced this as a particular trend with conservative or libertarian friends?

Interesting mix we are seeing.  I'll add mine.

I have friends and former colleagues from across ages, political lines, education, and geography and none of the people that talked about it were willing to trust it.  This is conservatives and liberals in California, Indiana, Florida, and Georgia.  Educations ranging from associates degree to multiple PhDs including military service, ages early 20s to mid 70s. 

Most of these people leaned towards educated in the sciences, though not all, but certainly a biased sample. 

No one has ever tried to convince me to buy crypto, mostly they just ask me what's up with it or if I invest in it (the few times it has happened).  I tell them I don't invest in currencies, and one shouldn't invest in something they don't understand (and I don't understand it very well). 

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LonerMatt

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #52 on: December 19, 2021, 10:15:27 PM »
All the folks I know are either people who don't think financially hoping to see big investment pay offs from little input (and who experience FOMO), random ERE blokes who got in early, or artists who are hopeful they can finally see some serious middle class income from sales of NFTs.

That is the whackiest spectrum.

ChpBstrd

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #53 on: December 20, 2021, 07:04:50 AM »
How strange is it that we've found something to unite people across the political divide. Enjoy it now; I predict it won't last long. The question is, when crypto either crashes or fades away, will the narrative be:

1) Evil capitalists and banksters must have attacked this perfectly legit "currency", locking us all into their monopolistic currency systems that benefit the rich.
2) Evil government / minorities must have attacked this perfectly legit "currency", locking us all into serfdom-level taxation because they couldn't control crypto.

The other question is who will still be on board by that time? It wouldn't surprise me to see Trump start a cryptocurrency to gather billions of dollars of his supporters' funds, and perhaps promise a new post-dollar economy after he is re-elected. It would be the new confederate money. Such a move might sour the entire concept of cryptocurrency for liberals, who would see it as a blatant scam. Someone, somewhere will start a rival liberal cryptocurrency, but will it take off?

Metalcat

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #54 on: December 20, 2021, 07:57:25 AM »
How strange is it that we've found something to unite people across the political divide. Enjoy it now; I predict it won't last long. The question is, when crypto either crashes or fades away, will the narrative be:

1) Evil capitalists and banksters must have attacked this perfectly legit "currency", locking us all into their monopolistic currency systems that benefit the rich.
2) Evil government / minorities must have attacked this perfectly legit "currency", locking us all into serfdom-level taxation because they couldn't control crypto.

The other question is who will still be on board by that time? It wouldn't surprise me to see Trump start a cryptocurrency to gather billions of dollars of his supporters' funds, and perhaps promise a new post-dollar economy after he is re-elected. It would be the new confederate money. Such a move might sour the entire concept of cryptocurrency for liberals, who would see it as a blatant scam. Someone, somewhere will start a rival liberal cryptocurrency, but will it take off?

I think people trying to make money always crosses the political divide.

I'm sure there's a huge range of political beliefs among rental property owners, index fund investors, people who invest through financial advisors, people who buy gold, people who buy individual stocks, people who buy insurance products, etc, etc.

I worked for a finance company, and the political spectrum was very broad for basically everything.

ChpBstrd

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #55 on: December 20, 2021, 08:39:43 AM »
How strange is it that we've found something to unite people across the political divide. Enjoy it now; I predict it won't last long. The question is, when crypto either crashes or fades away, will the narrative be:

1) Evil capitalists and banksters must have attacked this perfectly legit "currency", locking us all into their monopolistic currency systems that benefit the rich.
2) Evil government / minorities must have attacked this perfectly legit "currency", locking us all into serfdom-level taxation because they couldn't control crypto.

The other question is who will still be on board by that time? It wouldn't surprise me to see Trump start a cryptocurrency to gather billions of dollars of his supporters' funds, and perhaps promise a new post-dollar economy after he is re-elected. It would be the new confederate money. Such a move might sour the entire concept of cryptocurrency for liberals, who would see it as a blatant scam. Someone, somewhere will start a rival liberal cryptocurrency, but will it take off?

I think people trying to make money always crosses the political divide.

I'm sure there's a huge range of political beliefs among rental property owners, index fund investors, people who invest through financial advisors, people who buy gold, people who buy individual stocks, people who buy insurance products, etc, etc.

I worked for a finance company, and the political spectrum was very broad for basically everything.

That's interesting. How can people with such divergent views on the nature of reality itself come to similar conclusions about investments, of all things?

Such anecdotes suggest that we all see the same reality and reason in similar ways, but "believe" certain things in the political realm for reasons of tribal identity and status signaling. Members of party X might bloviate about economic doom if party Y wins the election, but they're not actually shorting the market when party Y wins, are they?

Metalcat

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #56 on: December 20, 2021, 09:45:28 AM »
How strange is it that we've found something to unite people across the political divide. Enjoy it now; I predict it won't last long. The question is, when crypto either crashes or fades away, will the narrative be:

1) Evil capitalists and banksters must have attacked this perfectly legit "currency", locking us all into their monopolistic currency systems that benefit the rich.
2) Evil government / minorities must have attacked this perfectly legit "currency", locking us all into serfdom-level taxation because they couldn't control crypto.

The other question is who will still be on board by that time? It wouldn't surprise me to see Trump start a cryptocurrency to gather billions of dollars of his supporters' funds, and perhaps promise a new post-dollar economy after he is re-elected. It would be the new confederate money. Such a move might sour the entire concept of cryptocurrency for liberals, who would see it as a blatant scam. Someone, somewhere will start a rival liberal cryptocurrency, but will it take off?

I think people trying to make money always crosses the political divide.

I'm sure there's a huge range of political beliefs among rental property owners, index fund investors, people who invest through financial advisors, people who buy gold, people who buy individual stocks, people who buy insurance products, etc, etc.

I worked for a finance company, and the political spectrum was very broad for basically everything.

That's interesting. How can people with such divergent views on the nature of reality itself come to similar conclusions about investments, of all things?

Such anecdotes suggest that we all see the same reality and reason in similar ways, but "believe" certain things in the political realm for reasons of tribal identity and status signaling. Members of party X might bloviate about economic doom if party Y wins the election, but they're not actually shorting the market when party Y wins, are they?

It's all just identity and framing. You're also making the logical error that most people make rational financial decisions, they don't. the vast majority of people base their entire personal finance approach on shit their parents said when they were young.

Werthless

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #57 on: December 21, 2021, 07:51:42 AM »
I think crypto should be 3-5% of every portfolio. For portfolios of significant size, it's a good hedge against some of the worst outcomes in the global or US economy.

This thread is interesting for many reasons, primarily because some of the strongest opinions are exhibited by people who profess to know the least about the space.

It's like if someone distills equity investments down to penny stocks. Sure, penny stocks are essentially gambling, but that's not the main market. Stay away from penny stocks, and stay away from cryptos whose popularity is based on tweets and funny names.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2021, 07:58:48 AM by Werthless »

YttriumNitrate

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #58 on: December 21, 2021, 09:55:43 AM »
I think crypto should be 3-5% of every portfolio. For portfolios of significant size, it's a good hedge against some of the worst outcomes in the global or US economy.
Didn't Bitcoin fall 50% Mid-February 2020 to Mid-March 2020 while the SP500 fell 30% at that same time?

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #59 on: December 21, 2021, 10:49:21 AM »
I think long-term, it's completely likely that certain crypto-currencies will rise to a point of semi-stability and become legitimate "currencies," rather than merely speculative assets, because there are just so damn many people who have 0 faith current institutions. The "decentralized finance" people are behaving rationally within their questionable fundamental assumptions about the world.

The smaller currencies are absolutely comparable to MLMs, except instead of SAHMs being preyed upon, it's a bunch of dude-bros on either end of these massive pump-and-dump schemes. It's just what we saw with GME with a bunch of psychopaths exploiting all these "HODL" and "diamond hands" memes to prey upon the easily-duped. As long as the people in-the-know sell before the idiots who fall prey to the memes, they can turn a little profit on every new meme coin and keep dreaming of becoming crypto-millionaires and never working another day in their life.

But I do think that the major currencies (BTC, ETH) will continue to go up (just with occasional temporary crashes whenever they face regulatory setbacks from major countries). Eventually, the "real" currencies will stabilize as anyone who has any interest in adopting them will have finally entered the market. Then BTC and ETH (and who's to say what else might enter that tier, if anything) will function basically as gold does. Something that is functionally worthless, but contains value in a way that's decoupled from inflation or the fate of any particular nation's currency, just because a bunch of doomsday preppers all agree it's valuable, and some more fearful investors hop on board simply as a way of diversifying their portfolios. The difference is that gold doesn't consume the same amount of electricity as the entire state of Washington on an annual basis.

I do believe that in the medium term, the trustworthy/mainstream cryptocurrencies are a "good" investment if your fundamental value of what's "good" is what will appreciate in value the most. The market is not yet saturated with all the people who will eventually be interested, because like I said, trust in institutions is horrifyingly low and the "DeFi" angle of crypto has a lot of allure to large segments of the population. But the monetary gain to be had doesn't balance out the moral implications of the carbon emissions associated with crypto mining.

Arguably investing in index funds might also not be particularly "moral" in that a large proportion of the index is going to companies like Amazon and Facebook (these two are even in "socially conscious" indexes, because they aren't actively profiting off anything as egregious as oil or bombs, just consumerism and misinformation...) that have horrible effects on society and the climate, and are incredibly exploitative of their workers. So maybe it's just holier-than-thou bullshit to object to Crypto on moral grounds while investing in these corporations. There's perhaps some argument to be made that at least these companies are "adding value" and not just sitting there doing nothing, but then there's just as much of an argument that these companies are doing more harm than good, and personally profiting off their success just incentivizes rationalizing away ones' complicity in that harm.

I guess here's where I awkwardly trail off as I realize maybe my thoughts are not fully formed. Maybe if I'm fine with index investing in horrible companies that I think do great harm to society, then I should be fine with the harm associated with crypto, in which case it would be perfectly rational to buy some BTC and/or ETH alongside ones' index investing. I guess I don't really have any skin in the game yet because I need to pay off my student loans before I worry about what assets to purchase, and by the time I get there, the major crypto-currencies might be much closer to stabilizing and no longer be as attractive of investments.

But yes, the the behavior around memecoins is basically MLMs. These crypto-bros are just trying to get more people "under" them to buy in, and then they can jump out with their profits once they've conned enough people into pumping up the price.

Kimera757

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #60 on: December 21, 2021, 11:09:44 AM »
How strange is it that we've found something to unite people across the political divide. Enjoy it now; I predict it won't last long. The question is, when crypto either crashes or fades away, will the narrative be:

1) Evil capitalists and banksters must have attacked this perfectly legit "currency", locking us all into their monopolistic currency systems that benefit the rich.
2) Evil government / minorities must have attacked this perfectly legit "currency", locking us all into serfdom-level taxation because they couldn't control crypto.

The other question is who will still be on board by that time? It wouldn't surprise me to see Trump start a cryptocurrency to gather billions of dollars of his supporters' funds, and perhaps promise a new post-dollar economy after he is re-elected. It would be the new confederate money. Such a move might sour the entire concept of cryptocurrency for liberals, who would see it as a blatant scam. Someone, somewhere will start a rival liberal cryptocurrency, but will it take off?

Melania Trump is selling NFTs. Not quite the same thing, but...

But yes, the the behavior around memecoins is basically MLMs. These crypto-bros are just trying to get more people "under" them to buy in, and then they can jump out with their profits once they've conned enough people into pumping up the price.

The thing that's aggravating to me is people keep falling for it, sometimes multiple times. The Squid Game cryptocurrency was an example of this. The only thing different between it and other memecoins was Squid Game's popularity (spoiler: they got ripped off). I wonder if there will be one based on the new Spider-Man movie, and how much money it will steal from fans of the movie.

boarder42

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #61 on: December 22, 2021, 08:55:40 AM »
I think crypto should be 3-5% of every portfolio. For portfolios of significant size, it's a good hedge against some of the worst outcomes in the global or US economy.
Didn't Bitcoin fall 50% Mid-February 2020 to Mid-March 2020 while the SP500 fell 30% at that same time?

Haha this guy over here bringing logic to a conversation. You just don't understand crypto. It's just like the us dollar in 1929 completely unbacked by anything and could collapse at any moment leaving everyone with any left holding a bag of nothing. The FDIC and centralized govt backed currency is worthless. 

Werthless

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #62 on: December 22, 2021, 01:01:42 PM »
I think crypto should be 3-5% of every portfolio. For portfolios of significant size, it's a good hedge against some of the worst outcomes in the global or US economy.
Didn't Bitcoin fall 50% Mid-February 2020 to Mid-March 2020 while the SP500 fell 30% at that same time?

Haha this guy over here bringing logic to a conversation. You just don't understand crypto. It's just like the us dollar in 1929 completely unbacked by anything and could collapse at any moment leaving everyone with any left holding a bag of nothing. The FDIC and centralized govt backed currency is worthless.
Sarcasm is not an argument, and logic is not the same as data. Regarding 1929 macroeconomic factors: the suspension of gold's convertibility, the collapse of the commercial banking sector, and the high economic trauma of the ensuing decade... they are not a very compelling argument for having all of one's investments denominated in a single currency. I'm not sure if you're familiar with the gold standard and the discussions around the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, but it's a great case study in how challenging it can be to manage to multiple government objectives.

Ok, so data... The correlation in the major equity markets and crypto markets has been positive in the last handful of years, as one would expect, as both have largely seen positive growth.

Correlation with DJIA: 0.75
Russell 200: 0.83
Gold futures: 0.65
Oil futures: 0.12
CPI: 0.40

Obviously, backwards looking data on the crypto markets is limited. But pulling from a paper where the above was found Academic source

Quote
Therefore, it is a direct influence of the Russell 2000 Index dynamics on Bitcoin prices and an inverse relationship with the prices of Gol Futures. The corresponding elasticity coefficients show that a 1% increase in the Russell 2000 index is associated with a 2.71% increase in the Bitcoin U.S. dollar price. On the other hand, a 1% increase in Gold Futures price occurs with a simultaneous decrease in the Bitcoin U.S. dollar price by 1.64%. This is very impotent to prove hypothesis H1 and it can be used to optimize an investment portfolio.

It remains to be seen whether holding significant crypto currencies is a successful long-term strategy in a period of prolonged, moderate inflation (which, to be fair, not everyone agrees the US is entering). There is not enough data to suggest whether it is better to hold 1% or 10%, or some other value. It probably depends on whether the usage of crypto as a currency (versus a nebulous store of value) continues to grow. For citizens currently living within countries seeing high inflation (Argentina, Turkey, etc), crypto has been an essential lifeline, and it's probably a good risk-adjusted position to hold significantly more than 10% of your liquid worth in crypto.

Lastly, regarding bitcoin. I have relatively little. I am more interested in cryptos that use Proof of stake (instead of proof of work) because of the costs of managing a POW blockchain. I think those are more likely to be the long-term winners because the environmental argument will ultimately win.

boarder42

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #63 on: December 22, 2021, 01:27:06 PM »
I think crypto should be 3-5% of every portfolio. For portfolios of significant size, it's a good hedge against some of the worst outcomes in the global or US economy.
Didn't Bitcoin fall 50% Mid-February 2020 to Mid-March 2020 while the SP500 fell 30% at that same time?

Haha this guy over here bringing logic to a conversation. You just don't understand crypto. It's just like the us dollar in 1929 completely unbacked by anything and could collapse at any moment leaving everyone with any left holding a bag of nothing. The FDIC and centralized govt backed currency is worthless.
Sarcasm is not an argument, and logic is not the same as data. Regarding 1929 macroeconomic factors: the suspension of gold's convertibility, the collapse of the commercial banking sector, and the high economic trauma of the ensuing decade... they are not a very compelling argument for having all of one's investments denominated in a single currency. I'm not sure if you're familiar with the gold standard and the discussions around the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, but it's a great case study in how challenging it can be to manage to multiple government objectives.

Ok, so data... The correlation in the major equity markets and crypto markets has been positive in the last handful of years, as one would expect, as both have largely seen positive growth.

Correlation with DJIA: 0.75
Russell 200: 0.83
Gold futures: 0.65
Oil futures: 0.12
CPI: 0.40

Obviously, backwards looking data on the crypto markets is limited. But pulling from a paper where the above was found Academic source

Quote
Therefore, it is a direct influence of the Russell 2000 Index dynamics on Bitcoin prices and an inverse relationship with the prices of Gol Futures. The corresponding elasticity coefficients show that a 1% increase in the Russell 2000 index is associated with a 2.71% increase in the Bitcoin U.S. dollar price. On the other hand, a 1% increase in Gold Futures price occurs with a simultaneous decrease in the Bitcoin U.S. dollar price by 1.64%. This is very impotent to prove hypothesis H1 and it can be used to optimize an investment portfolio.

It remains to be seen whether holding significant crypto currencies is a successful long-term strategy in a period of prolonged, moderate inflation (which, to be fair, not everyone agrees the US is entering). There is not enough data to suggest whether it is better to hold 1% or 10%, or some other value. It probably depends on whether the usage of crypto as a currency (versus a nebulous store of value) continues to grow. For citizens currently living within countries seeing high inflation (Argentina, Turkey, etc), crypto has been an essential lifeline, and it's probably a good risk-adjusted position to hold significantly more than 10% of your liquid worth in crypto.

Lastly, regarding bitcoin. I have relatively little. I am more interested in cryptos that use Proof of stake (instead of proof of work) because of the costs of managing a POW blockchain. I think those are more likely to be the long-term winners because the environmental argument will ultimately win.

If your goals align with your username you're making very compelling arguments.

MOD NOTE: Please address arguments instead of insulting people, or ignore their posts. Cheers!
« Last Edit: January 11, 2022, 09:08:27 PM by arebelspy »

Werthless

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #64 on: December 22, 2021, 03:37:35 PM »
 I'm not trying to win any arguments or anything. For some people like myself who come to sites like to learn about topics where we're not already experts, I thought the correlation stats were a nice addition. My post is clearly not for you, and I can understand that you might feel attacked by a post on a topic that you're insecure about. Good luck to you!
« Last Edit: December 22, 2021, 03:41:32 PM by Werthless »

six-car-habit

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #65 on: December 22, 2021, 07:12:47 PM »
 A fellow at my work has been buying small monetary amounts of little-known coins.

  He mentioned he had one type where he held 1,300,000 coins.  They are worth something like .000033 each.
   So, he has about $ 43 dollars invested in that type.   He mentioned the creators 'minted' - 200 billion coins - upon startup.

  blockchain recordings of transactions for all these units was not discussed.

 

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #66 on: December 22, 2021, 08:00:46 PM »
The CME doesn't offer an opinion as to whether BitCoin is a scam or not.   They're offering futures contracts for BitCoin.   This seems natural since the CME makes its money by brokering financial derivatives...

Ok this explains the website claiming to be CME in the crypto investment scam I was looking at today.  (The scammers combine a romance scam with an investment scam).  The platform coinbead was easy to figure out.

I’ve had to explain to the victim, they don’t have a boyfriend (they haven’t physically met yet) wanting to help them learn to invest.  They have a criminal who wants to steal their money.

ChpBstrd

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #67 on: December 22, 2021, 08:10:27 PM »
I think long-term, it's completely likely that certain crypto-currencies will rise to a point of semi-stability and become legitimate "currencies," rather than merely speculative assets, because there are just so damn many people who have 0 faith current institutions. The "decentralized finance" people are behaving rationally within their questionable fundamental assumptions about the world.

You know, it's funny how so much of what I read / watch on the internet is encouraging me to lose faith in "current institutions" such as the US form of government, capitalism, the financial system, the US dollar, media companies, social organizations, schools or colleges and the facts they teach, etc. Literally every news story some days fits into one of those categories, and that's the mainstream low/non-biased news organizations. If you let YouTube autoplay for 5 or 10 videos you're into conspiracy theories about "truths they don't want you to know!!!".

Clickbait is always conspiracy theory oriented, and of course the people spending the most time creating content on social media are the people spending the least time in the real world interacting with institutions. Their social media overuse, lack of skill interacting with institutions, and resentment about a lack of personal success are a vicious cycle. 

After about 10 years of this indoctrination, one is bound to pick up a few negative attitudes toward the structures that make society run. Once that happens, a person is ripe for scams that promise a way around those corrupt or sinister groupings of people. Scammers can target people based on their browsing and social media history, which indicate which institutions they distrust the most. If you browse some articles critical of the banking industry, watch the ads... crypto trading platforms and "alternative assets" whose validity is nothing more than a rented URL eh?

Maybe this is how hundreds of millions of people got so "skeptical" they fell for the dumbest shit on the internet. They think they're skeptical, but in reality they're just reacting the way the internet conditioned them to react.

Metalcat

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #68 on: December 22, 2021, 08:14:13 PM »
I think long-term, it's completely likely that certain crypto-currencies will rise to a point of semi-stability and become legitimate "currencies," rather than merely speculative assets, because there are just so damn many people who have 0 faith current institutions. The "decentralized finance" people are behaving rationally within their questionable fundamental assumptions about the world.

You know, it's funny how so much of what I read / watch on the internet is encouraging me to lose faith in "current institutions" such as the US form of government, capitalism, the financial system, the US dollar, media companies, social organizations, schools or colleges and the facts they teach, etc. Literally every news story some days fits into one of those categories, and that's the mainstream low/non-biased news organizations. If you let YouTube autoplay for 5 or 10 videos you're into conspiracy theories about "truths they don't want you to know!!!".

Clickbait is always conspiracy theory oriented, and of course the people spending the most time creating content on social media are the people spending the least time in the real world interacting with institutions. Their social media overuse, lack of skill interacting with institutions, and resentment about a lack of personal success are a vicious cycle. 

After about 10 years of this indoctrination, one is bound to pick up a few negative attitudes toward the structures that make society run. Once that happens, a person is ripe for scams that promise a way around those corrupt or sinister groupings of people. Scammers can target people based on their browsing and social media history, which indicate which institutions they distrust the most. If you browse some articles critical of the banking industry, watch the ads... crypto trading platforms and "alternative assets" whose validity is nothing more than a rented URL eh?

Maybe this is how hundreds of millions of people got so "skeptical" they fell for the dumbest shit on the internet. They think they're skeptical, but in reality they're just reacting the way the internet conditioned them to react.

Pretty much. But it *feels* oh so intelligent, and tastes like "independent thinking" even though it really isn't.

Reynold

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #69 on: January 03, 2022, 04:00:01 PM »
I saw an article that referred to cryptocurrencies as the first "distributed Ponzi schemes", which I thought was an interesting way to look at them.  That doesn't refer to the cryptocurrencies which are intentionally created as scams, of course, which are more like classic Ponzi schemes where an intentional criminal act is performed by a person or small group.

I have an even harder time figuring out why they would have any long term value than precious metals, though, which at least have some industrial and jewelry related uses. 

 

Kris

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #70 on: January 03, 2022, 04:41:22 PM »
So I only skimmed through the thread, but didn’t see this. The co-creator of Dogecoin himself says crypto is bullshit.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/dogecoin-co-creator-jackson-palmer-criticizes-the-crypto-industry.html

Hall11235

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #71 on: January 04, 2022, 12:09:45 PM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Also, echoing other sentiments here, I just get spooked when people with actual ZERO financial acumen at work are showing each other their coinbase portfolios talking about what they will do with all their thousands once EtherGhostDogEZ Coin goes to .0002 cents per coin.

Among my social circles, there is this sort of despondency about future prospects. That getting rich quickly via gambling on crypto-currency is the -ONLY- way to ever like, buy a home, or whatever. That trying to build wealth the traditional way is for fools and suckers since 'late-stage capitalism' or whatever the new boogey-man is will conspire to keep them down.

jinga nation

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #72 on: January 04, 2022, 01:08:36 PM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Co-worker was pushing me today to get into crypto/NFT.
I said I'm all in on IndexCoin and ETFs which are more stable with significantly lower risk.

That shut him up for a bit. Let's see he does some Google-fu at home and comes back tomorrow with comments/questions.

dandarc

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #73 on: January 04, 2022, 01:12:51 PM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Co-worker was pushing me today to get into crypto/NFT.
I said I'm all in on IndexCoin and ETFs which are more stable with significantly lower risk.

That shut him up for a bit. Let's see he does some Google-fu at home and comes back tomorrow with comments/questions.
Surely you mean Index funds - there actually is an index coin out there I think.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #74 on: January 04, 2022, 02:32:13 PM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Co-worker was pushing me today to get into crypto/NFT.
I said I'm all in on IndexCoin and ETFs which are more stable with significantly lower risk.

That shut him up for a bit. Let's see he does some Google-fu at home and comes back tomorrow with comments/questions.

You're a braver human than I. I tried the "Have you heard the good word about not consuming shit like its on sale?" exactly one time, got laughed out of the break room, and called it a day.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #75 on: January 04, 2022, 03:49:12 PM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Also, echoing other sentiments here, I just get spooked when people with actual ZERO financial acumen at work are showing each other their coinbase portfolios talking about what they will do with all their thousands once EtherGhostDogEZ Coin goes to .0002 cents per coin.

Among my social circles, there is this sort of despondency about future prospects. That getting rich quickly via gambling on crypto-currency is the -ONLY- way to ever like, buy a home, or whatever. That trying to build wealth the traditional way is for fools and suckers since 'late-stage capitalism' or whatever the new boogey-man is will conspire to keep them down.

This is a really interesting comment. And I think you are spot on. It’s depressing that the crypto-fever is in some sense just the latest way for opportunists to take advantage of the faults of the current system.

Which, of course, is kinda the point of the title of this thread.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #76 on: January 04, 2022, 05:47:43 PM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Also, echoing other sentiments here, I just get spooked when people with actual ZERO financial acumen at work are showing each other their coinbase portfolios talking about what they will do with all their thousands once EtherGhostDogEZ Coin goes to .0002 cents per coin.

Among my social circles, there is this sort of despondency about future prospects. That getting rich quickly via gambling on crypto-currency is the -ONLY- way to ever like, buy a home, or whatever. That trying to build wealth the traditional way is for fools and suckers since 'late-stage capitalism' or whatever the new boogey-man is will conspire to keep them down.

This is a really interesting comment. And I think you are spot on. It’s depressing that the crypto-fever is in some sense just the latest way for opportunists to take advantage of the faults of the current system.

Which, of course, is kinda the point of the title of this thread.
I've seen a similar despondency in some millenials and younger. Those that didn't go to Harvard or end up in lucrative tech jobs seem to recognize that the path to buying a house, etc is harder than it was for prior generations. "OK BOOMER" comes out of this and I think there is some merit to older generations having a blind spot here. It isn't impossible and the tools that worked well for GenXers like me still work, but the massive increases in inequality are tangibly making it harder for a lot of people to have a clear path to financial security. Crypto reminds me a lot of the exuberance for all things tech/internet in the 90s. Ultimately, there were a lot of tech companies that became big players with real value, but the empty loss-leader companies dropped away. At some point, crypto will find it's foothold and currencies and vendors that are positioned correctly will be lucrative in the future and underpinned by an actual value proposition, and there will be some ugly attrition, just like the collapse of MLM. Right now we have this neato new tool (much like the early internet) that has a lot of neato applications, but no solid direction and financial basis yet. Crypto is the new 90s day trading.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #77 on: January 04, 2022, 07:01:50 PM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Co-worker was pushing me today to get into crypto/NFT.
I said I'm all in on IndexCoin and ETFs which are more stable with significantly lower risk.

That shut him up for a bit. Let's see he does some Google-fu at home and comes back tomorrow with comments/questions.

You're a braver human than I. I tried the "Have you heard the good word about not consuming shit like its on sale?" exactly one time, got laughed out of the break room, and called it a day.

I know the guy's personality; better to use humor and deflect instead of trying to engage - which is futile. My dad was in sales; he taught me to gauge someone first.

@dandarc I didn't know there's an Index Coin (that's how much I "follow" crypto). I was being sarcastic. In my head, IndexCoin is my stock-indexed little green army.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #78 on: January 05, 2022, 07:17:33 AM »

ddoren

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #79 on: January 05, 2022, 08:24:34 AM »
A wee bit dramatic, but this article is generally on trend with this conversation:

https://inthesetimes.com/article/the-ticking-bomb-of-crypto-fascism

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #80 on: January 05, 2022, 11:00:28 AM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Also, echoing other sentiments here, I just get spooked when people with actual ZERO financial acumen at work are showing each other their coinbase portfolios talking about what they will do with all their thousands once EtherGhostDogEZ Coin goes to .0002 cents per coin.

Among my social circles, there is this sort of despondency about future prospects. That getting rich quickly via gambling on crypto-currency is the -ONLY- way to ever like, buy a home, or whatever. That trying to build wealth the traditional way is for fools and suckers since 'late-stage capitalism' or whatever the new boogey-man is will conspire to keep them down.

This is a really interesting comment. And I think you are spot on. It’s depressing that the crypto-fever is in some sense just the latest way for opportunists to take advantage of the faults of the current system.

Which, of course, is kinda the point of the title of this thread.

It is very interesting that the most privileged set of people in our society, with the most opportunity and leverage to improve their lives, are the ones who are repeating this mantra of helplessness.

There are many "faults of the current system" including mortgage subsidies and zoning laws that push up house prices to benefit politically powerful boomer homeowners, bloated universities that no longer offer cost-competitive education, professional associations that function to prevent entry into many fields, and bankruptcy laws that prevent the discharge of student loan debt.

Yet these obstacles to well-being pale in comparison to what people faced only a couple of generations ago: rampant discrimination, dead-end union jobs, unregulated exposure to toxins such as lead and asbestos, mortgage interest rates over 7%, polio, smallpox, tobacco smoke everywhere, military drafts, low wages, bank failures where you simply lose all your money, and extreme difficulty finding information about anything - from job opportunities to how to pay taxes. Life is always hard is some way.

The aspect of "the system" keeping these guys down is the culture of cynicism and pessimism that is a generational trait of Gen-Xers like myself. It's also the prevalence of internet information bubbles where status is conferred by repeating the things everybody else is saying. Just try marching into any of these self-pity bitch-and-moan groups on Facebook or Reddit and telling people they don't have to buy half-million-dollar homes, make car payments, commute an hour to work, or buy a $1300 iPhone every two years. They'll refuse to listen because it contradicts the groupthink.

In reality, no one has ever had it easier. All you have to do to succeed today is the opposite of what the social media loser crowd is doing.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #81 on: January 05, 2022, 12:34:53 PM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Also, echoing other sentiments here, I just get spooked when people with actual ZERO financial acumen at work are showing each other their coinbase portfolios talking about what they will do with all their thousands once EtherGhostDogEZ Coin goes to .0002 cents per coin.

Among my social circles, there is this sort of despondency about future prospects. That getting rich quickly via gambling on crypto-currency is the -ONLY- way to ever like, buy a home, or whatever. That trying to build wealth the traditional way is for fools and suckers since 'late-stage capitalism' or whatever the new boogey-man is will conspire to keep them down.

This is a really interesting comment. And I think you are spot on. It’s depressing that the crypto-fever is in some sense just the latest way for opportunists to take advantage of the faults of the current system.

Which, of course, is kinda the point of the title of this thread.

It is very interesting that the most privileged set of people in our society, with the most opportunity and leverage to improve their lives, are the ones who are repeating this mantra of helplessness.

There are many "faults of the current system" including mortgage subsidies and zoning laws that push up house prices to benefit politically powerful boomer homeowners, bloated universities that no longer offer cost-competitive education, professional associations that function to prevent entry into many fields, and bankruptcy laws that prevent the discharge of student loan debt.

Yet these obstacles to well-being pale in comparison to what people faced only a couple of generations ago: rampant discrimination, dead-end union jobs, unregulated exposure to toxins such as lead and asbestos, mortgage interest rates over 7%, polio, smallpox, tobacco smoke everywhere, military drafts, low wages, bank failures where you simply lose all your money, and extreme difficulty finding information about anything - from job opportunities to how to pay taxes. Life is always hard is some way.

The aspect of "the system" keeping these guys down is the culture of cynicism and pessimism that is a generational trait of Gen-Xers like myself. It's also the prevalence of internet information bubbles where status is conferred by repeating the things everybody else is saying. Just try marching into any of these self-pity bitch-and-moan groups on Facebook or Reddit and telling people they don't have to buy half-million-dollar homes, make car payments, commute an hour to work, or buy a $1300 iPhone every two years. They'll refuse to listen because it contradicts the groupthink.

In reality, no one has ever had it easier. All you have to do to succeed today is the opposite of what the social media loser crowd is doing.

I think you've gone just as far on the opposite end of the spectrum....

The truth certainly lies somewhere in between. I firmly believe that it's possible to be successful no matter where you start from but luck and privilege still play a huge role in how "easy" or "hard" it is even if you're not the typical consumerist type.

To get back to the main topic of the post; I only know a handful of people who are heavily interested in crypto and they're all lower-income, white males, who lean very firmly right. I admittedly know very little about them or the technology and am slowly trying to educate myself but won't be an investor any time soon/at all. I do think a handful of them are more legitimate (BTC and ETH) and will stick around but most won't.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #82 on: January 05, 2022, 03:17:40 PM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Also, echoing other sentiments here, I just get spooked when people with actual ZERO financial acumen at work are showing each other their coinbase portfolios talking about what they will do with all their thousands once EtherGhostDogEZ Coin goes to .0002 cents per coin.

Among my social circles, there is this sort of despondency about future prospects. That getting rich quickly via gambling on crypto-currency is the -ONLY- way to ever like, buy a home, or whatever. That trying to build wealth the traditional way is for fools and suckers since 'late-stage capitalism' or whatever the new boogey-man is will conspire to keep them down.

This is a really interesting comment. And I think you are spot on. It’s depressing that the crypto-fever is in some sense just the latest way for opportunists to take advantage of the faults of the current system.

Which, of course, is kinda the point of the title of this thread.
I've seen a similar despondency in some millenials and younger. Those that didn't go to Harvard or end up in lucrative tech jobs seem to recognize that the path to buying a house, etc is harder than it was for prior generations. "OK BOOMER" comes out of this and I think there is some merit to older generations having a blind spot here. It isn't impossible and the tools that worked well for GenXers like me still work, but the massive increases in inequality are tangibly making it harder for a lot of people to have a clear path to financial security. Crypto reminds me a lot of the exuberance for all things tech/internet in the 90s. Ultimately, there were a lot of tech companies that became big players with real value, but the empty loss-leader companies dropped away. At some point, crypto will find it's foothold and currencies and vendors that are positioned correctly will be lucrative in the future and underpinned by an actual value proposition, and there will be some ugly attrition, just like the collapse of MLM. Right now we have this neato new tool (much like the early internet) that has a lot of neato applications, but no solid direction and financial basis yet. Crypto is the new 90s day trading.

You wanna see despondency, just imagine what happens if mortgage rates get back to the old normal range of 6-8%.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #83 on: January 05, 2022, 03:43:59 PM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Also, echoing other sentiments here, I just get spooked when people with actual ZERO financial acumen at work are showing each other their coinbase portfolios talking about what they will do with all their thousands once EtherGhostDogEZ Coin goes to .0002 cents per coin.

Among my social circles, there is this sort of despondency about future prospects. That getting rich quickly via gambling on crypto-currency is the -ONLY- way to ever like, buy a home, or whatever. That trying to build wealth the traditional way is for fools and suckers since 'late-stage capitalism' or whatever the new boogey-man is will conspire to keep them down.

This is a really interesting comment. And I think you are spot on. It’s depressing that the crypto-fever is in some sense just the latest way for opportunists to take advantage of the faults of the current system.

Which, of course, is kinda the point of the title of this thread.
I've seen a similar despondency in some millenials and younger. Those that didn't go to Harvard or end up in lucrative tech jobs seem to recognize that the path to buying a house, etc is harder than it was for prior generations. "OK BOOMER" comes out of this and I think there is some merit to older generations having a blind spot here. It isn't impossible and the tools that worked well for GenXers like me still work, but the massive increases in inequality are tangibly making it harder for a lot of people to have a clear path to financial security. Crypto reminds me a lot of the exuberance for all things tech/internet in the 90s. Ultimately, there were a lot of tech companies that became big players with real value, but the empty loss-leader companies dropped away. At some point, crypto will find it's foothold and currencies and vendors that are positioned correctly will be lucrative in the future and underpinned by an actual value proposition, and there will be some ugly attrition, just like the collapse of MLM. Right now we have this neato new tool (much like the early internet) that has a lot of neato applications, but no solid direction and financial basis yet. Crypto is the new 90s day trading.

You wanna see despondency, just imagine what happens if mortgage rates get back to the old normal range of 6-8%.

You think that's coming?  I've been waiting my whole adult life for that to occur.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #84 on: January 05, 2022, 04:47:33 PM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Also, echoing other sentiments here, I just get spooked when people with actual ZERO financial acumen at work are showing each other their coinbase portfolios talking about what they will do with all their thousands once EtherGhostDogEZ Coin goes to .0002 cents per coin.

Among my social circles, there is this sort of despondency about future prospects. That getting rich quickly via gambling on crypto-currency is the -ONLY- way to ever like, buy a home, or whatever. That trying to build wealth the traditional way is for fools and suckers since 'late-stage capitalism' or whatever the new boogey-man is will conspire to keep them down.

This is a really interesting comment. And I think you are spot on. It’s depressing that the crypto-fever is in some sense just the latest way for opportunists to take advantage of the faults of the current system.

Which, of course, is kinda the point of the title of this thread.
I've seen a similar despondency in some millenials and younger. Those that didn't go to Harvard or end up in lucrative tech jobs seem to recognize that the path to buying a house, etc is harder than it was for prior generations. "OK BOOMER" comes out of this and I think there is some merit to older generations having a blind spot here. It isn't impossible and the tools that worked well for GenXers like me still work, but the massive increases in inequality are tangibly making it harder for a lot of people to have a clear path to financial security. Crypto reminds me a lot of the exuberance for all things tech/internet in the 90s. Ultimately, there were a lot of tech companies that became big players with real value, but the empty loss-leader companies dropped away. At some point, crypto will find it's foothold and currencies and vendors that are positioned correctly will be lucrative in the future and underpinned by an actual value proposition, and there will be some ugly attrition, just like the collapse of MLM. Right now we have this neato new tool (much like the early internet) that has a lot of neato applications, but no solid direction and financial basis yet. Crypto is the new 90s day trading.

You wanna see despondency, just imagine what happens if mortgage rates get back to the old normal range of 6-8%.
At least Ethereum would still be growing at greater than 6-8%, so it's all good, right? Fiat currency machinations be damned!

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #85 on: January 05, 2022, 07:08:25 PM »
Just my 2 cents... but as a privileged white male in my late twenties, I am getting really sick of being told to buy cryptocurrency by other privileged white males in their late twenties. Give it a rest, guys. (the above is said somewhat facetiously, but, I do feel like I am the prime demographic for all the get-rich-quick shit).

Also, echoing other sentiments here, I just get spooked when people with actual ZERO financial acumen at work are showing each other their coinbase portfolios talking about what they will do with all their thousands once EtherGhostDogEZ Coin goes to .0002 cents per coin.

Among my social circles, there is this sort of despondency about future prospects. That getting rich quickly via gambling on crypto-currency is the -ONLY- way to ever like, buy a home, or whatever. That trying to build wealth the traditional way is for fools and suckers since 'late-stage capitalism' or whatever the new boogey-man is will conspire to keep them down.

This is a really interesting comment. And I think you are spot on. It’s depressing that the crypto-fever is in some sense just the latest way for opportunists to take advantage of the faults of the current system.

Which, of course, is kinda the point of the title of this thread.
I've seen a similar despondency in some millenials and younger. Those that didn't go to Harvard or end up in lucrative tech jobs seem to recognize that the path to buying a house, etc is harder than it was for prior generations. "OK BOOMER" comes out of this and I think there is some merit to older generations having a blind spot here. It isn't impossible and the tools that worked well for GenXers like me still work, but the massive increases in inequality are tangibly making it harder for a lot of people to have a clear path to financial security. Crypto reminds me a lot of the exuberance for all things tech/internet in the 90s. Ultimately, there were a lot of tech companies that became big players with real value, but the empty loss-leader companies dropped away. At some point, crypto will find it's foothold and currencies and vendors that are positioned correctly will be lucrative in the future and underpinned by an actual value proposition, and there will be some ugly attrition, just like the collapse of MLM. Right now we have this neato new tool (much like the early internet) that has a lot of neato applications, but no solid direction and financial basis yet. Crypto is the new 90s day trading.

You wanna see despondency, just imagine what happens if mortgage rates get back to the old normal range of 6-8%.

You think that's coming?  I've been waiting my whole adult life for that to occur.

Damn, I'm older than I realized.   

RetiredAt63

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #86 on: January 05, 2022, 08:16:01 PM »
Oh hell, I remember being glad for my 9% mortgage rate when a friend had to renew at 18%.  Those rates didn't last long, but they did happen.

Access to information is amazing now.  When we bought our first house you could only find out what your payments would be when you discussed your mortgage at the bank .  Or found an interest rate table.  Personal finance books don't bother to print them now, but my 1985 copy of Brian Costello's Your Money And How To Keep it has blended monthly mortgage tables from 8% to 19 7/8%.  Yes I still have it.   ;-)   

I can post the table of contents if anyone cares to see the advice boomers and early Gen Xs were getting.  Pete's advice is nothing new. 

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #87 on: January 06, 2022, 07:39:27 AM »
I remember my parents contemplating some financial decision in the 1990's, and my dad sitting there with a Casio calculator using the geometric series (not preprogrammed, he was doing it himself) to calculate the monthly payments of different options.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #88 on: January 06, 2022, 01:43:41 PM »
Oh yeah, for sure. Everyone here is 100% correct. The "Woe is me" behavior of my peers is cringe-worthy in the extreme.

It is all just learned behavior, combined with this strange sense of fatalism/nihilism summed up by the Zoomer phrase, "It do be like that." Gambling on different coins is just a byproduct of this. Being raised by parents and a society who oversold us (the "standard" millennial) a bill of goods, namely, college.

Its just so easy (and, honestly, cathartic) to say "Ok, Boomer" to people who are older than us who can't or don't try to understand that SOME things are more expensive, like houses and college.

scottish

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #89 on: January 06, 2022, 04:55:42 PM »
I'm not so sure.    When I graduated from university, starting salaries were about 30K.   Houses were about 150K.   And interest rates were 11%.   With 20% down, you'd be paying 14K per year in interest, that's almost 50% of a new grad's salary in engineering just to cover the interest payment.

Now starting salaries are around 80K (in Ottawa, not the west coast of the US), houses are about 600k and mortgage rates are 2%.   With 20% down, you'd be paying 9600 per year in interest, which is not only 12% of a new grad's salary, it's less than you would have been paying 30 odd years ago.


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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #90 on: January 06, 2022, 06:12:52 PM »
I'm not so sure.    When I graduated from university, starting salaries were about 30K.   Houses were about 150K.   And interest rates were 11%.   With 20% down, you'd be paying 14K per year in interest, that's almost 50% of a new grad's salary in engineering just to cover the interest payment.

Now starting salaries are around 80K (in Ottawa, not the west coast of the US), houses are about 600k and mortgage rates are 2%.   With 20% down, you'd be paying 9600 per year in interest, which is not only 12% of a new grad's salary, it's less than you would have been paying 30 odd years ago.

$150k seems maybe a bit expensive for a house type that is $600k now. Was that grabbed from the air or was there a data point? Just thinking of the house I grew up in at $55k 38 years ago.

Other than that, I like how you broke that down.

talltexan

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #91 on: January 07, 2022, 06:26:57 AM »
My parents still live in the 3 bedroom, 1400 ft^2 house they bought in 1987 (CPI = 112). Their initial mortgage payment was (in current dollars) $780.

I live in an opulent, 3,600 ft^2 house that I bought in 2019 (CPI = 255). My current payment is $2010. So in real terms, our payments were only 12% different from each other, but my lifestyle (as measured in amount of house) is considerably greater.


elaine amj

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #92 on: January 07, 2022, 08:11:47 AM »
I'm not so sure.    When I graduated from university, starting salaries were about 30K.   Houses were about 150K.   And interest rates were 11%.   With 20% down, you'd be paying 14K per year in interest, that's almost 50% of a new grad's salary in engineering just to cover the interest payment.

Now starting salaries are around 80K (in Ottawa, not the west coast of the US), houses are about 600k and mortgage rates are 2%.   With 20% down, you'd be paying 9600 per year in interest, which is not only 12% of a new grad's salary, it's less than you would have been paying 30 odd years ago.
That’s a REALLY good comparison that I haven’t heard of yet.

One thing to note - in scenario 1, you’d have to scrape $30k (1 year’s salary) together for your 20% down payment.

In scenario 2, our new grad needs $120k (1.5 year’s salary) for a down payment.


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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #93 on: January 07, 2022, 08:26:57 AM »
I'm not so sure.    When I graduated from university, starting salaries were about 30K.   Houses were about 150K.   And interest rates were 11%.   With 20% down, you'd be paying 14K per year in interest, that's almost 50% of a new grad's salary in engineering just to cover the interest payment.

Now starting salaries are around 80K (in Ottawa, not the west coast of the US), houses are about 600k and mortgage rates are 2%.   With 20% down, you'd be paying 9600 per year in interest, which is not only 12% of a new grad's salary, it's less than you would have been paying 30 odd years ago.

$150k seems maybe a bit expensive for a house type that is $600k now. Was that grabbed from the air or was there a data point? Just thinking of the house I grew up in at $55k 38 years ago.

Other than that, I like how you broke that down.

In January 1990 the median house price was $97,024.78 ($207,756.31 inflation adjusted) and average rates were just above 10%.

In January 2021 the median house price was $303,034.68 and average rates are around 3%.

January 1990:
Down payment - $19,405 ($42,336 inflation adjusted)
Mortgage amount - $77,620 @ 10%
Payment - $681 ($1,485 inflation adjusted)

January 2021:
Down payment - $60,607
Mortgage amount - $242,428 @ 3%
Payment - $1,022

Source - https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/

zolotiyeruki

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #94 on: January 07, 2022, 10:05:36 AM »
The impact of interest rates on home prices, not just monthly payments is one of those things that often gets overlooked, because of the need for a down payment.

Out of curiosity, I ran the numbers for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage.  For a given monthly payment, you can buy a house for twice as much if your interest rate is 3%, compared to if your interest rate is 9.5%.  When mortgage rates dropped from about 4% to 3% in 2020, the same monthly payment could suddenly buy 13% more house.  So, yay for more people able to afford monthly payments?

The problem is that the higher home prices which result from low interest rates mean that buyers need to come up with more money for their down payment.  I imagine that's tough when you're already paying rent.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #95 on: January 07, 2022, 01:46:43 PM »
January 1990:
Down payment - $19,405 ($42,336 inflation adjusted)
Mortgage amount - $77,620 @ 10%
Payment - $681 ($1,485 inflation adjusted)

January 2021:
Down payment - $60,607
Mortgage amount - $242,428 @ 3%
Payment - $1,022

Obviously it's easy to do with hindsight, but in the 90s there was the hope that you could grind on for a couple years and then refi into cheaper loan when rates returned to what they were like in the 60s and some of the 70s. When my parents bought their house in 1981, rates were at 14% and they knew things were going to be tight for a while until they could refinance to a better loan. When rates are already at 3%, there's not much hope of things improving.

RetiredAt63

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #96 on: January 07, 2022, 01:50:16 PM »
January 1990:
Down payment - $19,405 ($42,336 inflation adjusted)
Mortgage amount - $77,620 @ 10%
Payment - $681 ($1,485 inflation adjusted)

January 2021:
Down payment - $60,607
Mortgage amount - $242,428 @ 3%
Payment - $1,022

Obviously it's easy to do with hindsight, but in the 90s there was the hope that you could grind on for a couple years and then refi into cheaper loan when rates returned to what they were like in the 60s and some of the 70s. When my parents bought their house in 1981, rates were at 14% and they knew things were going to be tight for a while until they could refinance to a better loan. When rates are already at 3%, there's not much hope of things improving.


I figure at 3% they qualify as already improved.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #97 on: January 07, 2022, 05:22:52 PM »
I'm not so sure.    When I graduated from university, starting salaries were about 30K.   Houses were about 150K.   And interest rates were 11%.   With 20% down, you'd be paying 14K per year in interest, that's almost 50% of a new grad's salary in engineering just to cover the interest payment.

Now starting salaries are around 80K (in Ottawa, not the west coast of the US), houses are about 600k and mortgage rates are 2%.   With 20% down, you'd be paying 9600 per year in interest, which is not only 12% of a new grad's salary, it's less than you would have been paying 30 odd years ago.

$150k seems maybe a bit expensive for a house type that is $600k now. Was that grabbed from the air or was there a data point? Just thinking of the house I grew up in at $55k 38 years ago.

Other than that, I like how you broke that down.

It was my parent's neighbourhood, then and now. 

boarder42

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #98 on: January 07, 2022, 05:42:25 PM »
The impact of interest rates on home prices, not just monthly payments is one of those things that often gets overlooked, because of the need for a down payment.

Out of curiosity, I ran the numbers for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage.  For a given monthly payment, you can buy a house for twice as much if your interest rate is 3%, compared to if your interest rate is 9.5%.  When mortgage rates dropped from about 4% to 3% in 2020, the same monthly payment could suddenly buy 13% more house.  So, yay for more people able to afford monthly payments?

The problem is that the higher home prices which result from low interest rates mean that buyers need to come up with more money for their down payment.  I imagine that's tough when you're already paying rent.

This isn't true in reality it's very easy to get an 8th added to your rate and have PMI erased while putting 3-5% down today. So you're likely looking at less down and a lower monthly payment with the current environment.

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Re: crypto is the new MLM
« Reply #99 on: February 05, 2022, 12:23:29 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g

"Self-organizing high control" groups like Amway. I've memorized that description.

Warning: video is over 2 hours long!