Author Topic: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably  (Read 11168 times)


radram

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2016, 08:58:40 AM »
Interesting article, but when all is said and done it is just a number.  My plan and forecasts are for slower growth moving forward(under 6%).  If it is higher, I would just have more money.  No big deal.  If it is half of what I planned long term, I will see it coming for decades and will make small changes to adjust (go back to work PT, cut spending, etc.).  Again, no big deal.

It is amazing what can be done when you have decades to plan for a shortcoming.  I wonder if anyone in government will ever figure this out.  Maybe someone should tell them.


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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2016, 09:05:49 AM »
Sure, if the indexes don't double a few times in the next 50 years that means we'll have experienced historically low rates of growth for an unprecedented amount of time. All our assumptions will be wrong and we'll have a bad time. It's basic math.

Is there something else you wanted to point out in that article?

forummm

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2016, 01:27:32 PM »
It's not important that it gets to 150,000 by the time you die. It's the sequence and timing of returns that matters. If you retired with Dow 20,000 and it jumped up to 80,000 the next year and then stayed flat for the rest of your life (still spitting out dividends) you'd probably be just dandy with the 4% rule. But if it went to 10,000 for 30 years and then up to 150,000, you'd be broke or still working.

Metric Mouse

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2016, 07:28:25 PM »
Wait, what? For a 50 year old investor? Typical scare-mongering clickbait article. title.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2016, 09:04:56 PM by Metric Mouse »

arebelspy

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2016, 08:38:09 PM »
Wait, what? For a 50 year old investor? Typical scare-mongering article.

The article wasn't fear-mongering, just the title.

The article logically laid out why it will get there, just due to simple compound growth.
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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2016, 07:28:56 AM »
Because one can always sustain exponential growth on a finite planet. Sounds great!

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2016, 07:53:33 AM »
I'm skeptical.  I have always been skeptical that we can predict the future growth of the economy in the 21st century by looking at the economy of the 19th and 20th centuries.  This is why I am not sold on investment in the US stock market as the ticket to early retirement.  I'd rather diversify somewhat in other investments that are currently not as lucrative. 

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2016, 10:58:09 AM »
^^  I don't consider the last century or so of stock market gains made on increasing fossil fuel use as a given into the indefinite future.

My plan involves a blend of being able to provide for my own needs as possible, and keeping some in the markets.  If I'm wrong, I have more money in retirement.  If I'm right, I still have an ability to provide a basic existence for myself and my family.

Jrr85

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2016, 02:17:49 PM »
I'm skeptical.  I have always been skeptical that we can predict the future growth of the economy in the 21st century by looking at the economy of the 19th and 20th centuries.  This is why I am not sold on investment in the US stock market as the ticket to early retirement.  I'd rather diversify somewhat in other investments that are currently not as lucrative.

I've never thought the growth of the past century as the justification for investing in the U.S. stock market.  My thought is that the multinationals on the U.S. stock market (and new companies that get listed there) are highly likely to capture a lot of future world growth, so investing in the U.S. stock market gives you a decent chance to capture whatever growth there is in the world with a very simple and cheap investment.   

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2016, 02:48:26 PM »
About the market going up, it all comes down to the bottom line.  Companies are earning profit, and some of the profits are retained and reinvested.  If those investments pay off, earnings go up. If earnings go up, the market goes up (eventually).

Don't underestimate millions of the world's most brilliant people working with the reinvested money.  People laughed at the idea of a computer in each household, but now you probably have one in your pocket.  That came from reinvestment of retained earnings by companies like Apple and Motorola.  And growing businesses can actually be good for sustainability.  Some of those reinvestments are going to solar cell research, reuse of waste, biodegradable packaging, energy efficiency, etc., etc.

If we were to hit the ceiling of reinvestment and innovation, investors would eventually demand all profits go to dividends.  Then you might get to see the Dow stuck in one place, but you'd have plenty of dividend dollars to wipe your tears.

I personally think it's unlikely this expensive market will be very spectacular over the semi-near term, but that would be normal in history.  There's nothing to suggest the future will look much different from the past. That would be a roller-coaster with gravity reversed.  This one pays you to ride, too. 

arebelspy

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #11 on: July 18, 2016, 04:58:13 PM »
About the market going up, it all comes down to the bottom line.  Companies are earning profit, and some of the profits are retained and reinvested.  If those investments pay off, earnings go up. If earnings go up, the market goes up (eventually).

Don't underestimate millions of the world's most brilliant people working with the reinvested money.  People laughed at the idea of a computer in each household, but now you probably have one in your pocket.  That came from reinvestment of retained earnings by companies like Apple and Motorola.  And growing businesses can actually be good for sustainability.  Some of those reinvestments are going to solar cell research, reuse of waste, biodegradable packaging, energy efficiency, etc., etc.

If we were to hit the ceiling of reinvestment and innovation, investors would eventually demand all profits go to dividends.  Then you might get to see the Dow stuck in one place, but you'd have plenty of dividend dollars to wipe your tears.

I personally think it's unlikely this expensive market will be very spectacular over the semi-near term, but that would be normal in history.  There's nothing to suggest the future will look much different from the past. That would be a roller-coaster with gravity reversed.  This one pays you to ride, too.

Well said!
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forummm

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #12 on: July 18, 2016, 07:29:30 PM »
About the market going up, it all comes down to the bottom line.  Companies are earning profit, and some of the profits are retained and reinvested.  If those investments pay off, earnings go up. If earnings go up, the market goes up (eventually).

Don't underestimate millions of the world's most brilliant people working with the reinvested money.  People laughed at the idea of a computer in each household, but now you probably have one in your pocket.  That came from reinvestment of retained earnings by companies like Apple and Motorola.  And growing businesses can actually be good for sustainability.  Some of those reinvestments are going to solar cell research, reuse of waste, biodegradable packaging, energy efficiency, etc., etc.

If we were to hit the ceiling of reinvestment and innovation, investors would eventually demand all profits go to dividends.  Then you might get to see the Dow stuck in one place, but you'd have plenty of dividend dollars to wipe your tears.

I personally think it's unlikely this expensive market will be very spectacular over the semi-near term, but that would be normal in history.  There's nothing to suggest the future will look much different from the past. That would be a roller-coaster with gravity reversed.  This one pays you to ride, too.

Well said!

Also--inflation. Inflation causes prices to go up so revenues and earnings for the firms go up too.

Bateaux

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2016, 04:49:11 AM »
I was investing at DOW 5000 so some of my savings have more than tripled.  Wish I could have afforded more to invest then.  The next double would be 36000 or so.   Seems huge.

dougules

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #14 on: July 19, 2016, 07:14:23 AM »
About the market going up, it all comes down to the bottom line.  Companies are earning profit, and some of the profits are retained and reinvested.  If those investments pay off, earnings go up. If earnings go up, the market goes up (eventually).

Don't underestimate millions of the world's most brilliant people working with the reinvested money.  People laughed at the idea of a computer in each household, but now you probably have one in your pocket.  That came from reinvestment of retained earnings by companies like Apple and Motorola.  And growing businesses can actually be good for sustainability.  Some of those reinvestments are going to solar cell research, reuse of waste, biodegradable packaging, energy efficiency, etc., etc.

If we were to hit the ceiling of reinvestment and innovation, investors would eventually demand all profits go to dividends.  Then you might get to see the Dow stuck in one place, but you'd have plenty of dividend dollars to wipe your tears.

I personally think it's unlikely this expensive market will be very spectacular over the semi-near term, but that would be normal in history.  There's nothing to suggest the future will look much different from the past. That would be a roller-coaster with gravity reversed.  This one pays you to ride, too.

Well said!

Also--inflation. Inflation causes prices to go up so revenues and earnings for the firms go up too.

True.  I was just trying to keep it simple. 

Guses

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #15 on: July 20, 2016, 03:42:14 PM »
Because one can always sustain exponential growth on a finite planet. Sounds great!

Why so gloom?

Even if there was no growth at all, you can still make money by owning profitable companies. You just need more capital to sustain yourself.

In that scenario, as we approach peak resources I presume that sustainable/renewable industries will yield the best growth opportunities.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #16 on: July 20, 2016, 04:03:02 PM »
If the market typically returns 5-7%, the rule of 72 would say I would double my money every 10-12 years.  Who cares what the dow is at or needs to be at?  If I can double my money every 10-12 years i'll be more than fine.

arebelspy

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #17 on: July 20, 2016, 04:57:11 PM »
If the market typically returns 5-7%, the rule of 72 would say I would double my money every 10-12 years.  Who cares what the dow is at or needs to be at?  If I can double my money every 10-12 years i'll be more than fine.

Right, the article is just saying that in the meantime, when it doubles every 10-12 years, by 2040 (iirc, read it a few days ago) the dow will be at 150k.

It's a large sounding number, but it's rational if that's what the market returns just because of compounding.  That's all the article is saying.

As you say, if you get 7% and double every 10 years for the next few decades, you will be fine, and, as the article says, the dow will be at 150k.  Both of those go hand in hand.
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forummm

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #18 on: July 23, 2016, 10:23:47 AM »
Because one can always sustain exponential growth on a finite planet. Sounds great!

Why so gloom?

Even if there was no growth at all, you can still make money by owning profitable companies. You just need more capital to sustain yourself.

In that scenario, as we approach peak resources I presume that sustainable/renewable industries will yield the best growth opportunities.

We can still grow with constrained resources. We've been getting less and less resource intensive for decades (centuries?). We learn more efficient ways of using things. And of recycling. As essentially all energy production becomes renewable (which it is and will get to within a few decades), that's a huge source saved resources. We can always just reuse and recycle the other resources we use. And growth is happening more and more in electronic and intellectual improvements. Look at the most valuable companies in the world--Google, Apple, and Microsoft. That trend will continue.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2016, 04:02:55 PM »
You bet on that, I'll keep hedging in case that doesn't work as advertised.

arebelspy

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #20 on: July 23, 2016, 05:01:26 PM »
You bet on that, I'll keep hedging in case that doesn't work as advertised.

That's fine, just as long as you realize what you're hedging with: years of your life.

:)
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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #21 on: July 23, 2016, 06:03:11 PM »
*shrug* Another year or two of work I enjoy, in exchange for much more long term robustness.  I'm fine with that.

I'm already working part time (32h/wk), living where I want to live (rural farm country near family), spending plenty of time with family, spending my free time working outside on the property.  No complaints right now!

forummm

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #22 on: July 24, 2016, 03:20:25 PM »
*shrug* Another year or two of work I enjoy, in exchange for much more long term robustness.  I'm fine with that.

I'm already working part time (32h/wk), living where I want to live (rural farm country near family), spending plenty of time with family, spending my free time working outside on the property.  No complaints right now!

Glad you enjoy your work. That's a real blessing to have. Others of us are not so fortunate.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #23 on: July 24, 2016, 04:01:43 PM »
Even if I didn't, significantly added robustness means I'm less likely to have to go back to work if things change in the future.

Metric Mouse

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #24 on: July 25, 2016, 05:53:12 AM »
We can still grow with constrained resources. We've been getting less and less resource intensive for decades (centuries?). We learn more efficient ways of using things. And of recycling. As essentially all energy production becomes renewable (which it is and will get to within a few decades), that's a huge source saved resources. We can always just reuse and recycle the other resources we use. And growth is happening more and more in electronic and intellectual improvements. Look at the most valuable companies in the world--Google, Apple, and Microsoft. That trend will continue.

I'm not as optimistic that the world will be fully-renewable (energy) by 2040. Coal and oil are just too plentiful, effective and cheap. Certainly we'll be closer than we are today, though!  Most research seems to point that it'll be far too late by then, can't hurt to try.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #25 on: July 25, 2016, 08:42:49 AM »
We can still grow with constrained resources. We've been getting less and less resource intensive for decades (centuries?). We learn more efficient ways of using things. And of recycling. As essentially all energy production becomes renewable (which it is and will get to within a few decades), that's a huge source saved resources. We can always just reuse and recycle the other resources we use. And growth is happening more and more in electronic and intellectual improvements. Look at the most valuable companies in the world--Google, Apple, and Microsoft. That trend will continue.

I'm not as optimistic that the world will be fully-renewable (energy) by 2040. Coal and oil are just too plentiful, effective and cheap. Certainly we'll be closer than we are today, though!  Most research seems to point that it'll be far too late by then, can't hurt to try.

Personality wise I am more biased to pessimism/realism....and for me advancement would fall under realism.  Advancement comes from improving existing technology or creating new technology that never existed. 

An example of improving technology and improving efficient resources is Container Farm .  Funny that it the cost has come down because of the high demand from marijuana farming, which was very profitable and could afford to buy and cause to improve the technology such that it is becoming more and more affordable.  While it is still expensive and not fully practical for sustenance farming for a population who's to say it won't be soon.

Regarding renewables - the thing is that the world may be finite with resources but they don't leave the planet. The world is full of renewable resources...the elements are still there and just need to be reworked.  Sure oil may get depleted but at some point but technology is developing that can create artificial/synthetic oil. Or there may be other ways to create energy that currently not known or applied.  I am sure this will continue.

Regarding new technology - Advancement is so hard to conceptualize for people because they are trying to think about development of things that don't exist or any concept of the idea exists.  Most of the population is unable to think this way, but there are few special people that do think this way and make something of it - their minds work differently IMO.

forummm

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #26 on: July 26, 2016, 12:07:49 PM »
We can still grow with constrained resources. We've been getting less and less resource intensive for decades (centuries?). We learn more efficient ways of using things. And of recycling. As essentially all energy production becomes renewable (which it is and will get to within a few decades), that's a huge source saved resources. We can always just reuse and recycle the other resources we use. And growth is happening more and more in electronic and intellectual improvements. Look at the most valuable companies in the world--Google, Apple, and Microsoft. That trend will continue.

I'm not as optimistic that the world will be fully-renewable (energy) by 2040. Coal and oil are just too plentiful, effective and cheap. Certainly we'll be closer than we are today, though!  Most research seems to point that it'll be far too late by then, can't hurt to try.

We won't be 100% by 2040. But I would guess 50% or more of transportation will be electric by then (and nearly all new vehicles will be electric). And probably 50% or more of electric generation will be wind/solar. Add in some hydro and nuclear (currently 30%) and the rest will be gas. Coal is on the way out. No one will build more plants in the US.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #27 on: July 26, 2016, 12:50:20 PM »
Personality wise I am more biased to pessimism/realism....and for me advancement would fall under realism.  Advancement comes from improving existing technology or creating new technology that never existed. 

An example of improving technology and improving efficient resources is Container Farm .  Funny that it the cost has come down because of the high demand from marijuana farming, which was very profitable and could afford to buy and cause to improve the technology such that it is becoming more and more affordable.  While it is still expensive and not fully practical for sustenance farming for a population who's to say it won't be soon.

Regarding renewables - the thing is that the world may be finite with resources but they don't leave the planet. The world is full of renewable resources...the elements are still there and just need to be reworked.  Sure oil may get depleted but at some point but technology is developing that can create artificial/synthetic oil. Or there may be other ways to create energy that currently not known or applied.  I am sure this will continue.

Regarding new technology - Advancement is so hard to conceptualize for people because they are trying to think about development of things that don't exist or any concept of the idea exists.  Most of the population is unable to think this way, but there are few special people that do think this way and make something of it - their minds work differently IMO.

Never heard of a container farm. That is awesome.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #28 on: July 26, 2016, 01:12:53 PM »
I can't imagine how container farming is sustainable. It's simple thermodynamics. We get energy from the sun. If you capture that energy using solar panels you only convert part of it to energy. Then more transmission and conversion losses to power the lights. So for the same amount of sunlight, you can only grow a fraction the amount of crops in the container farm than you could in a field outside.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #29 on: July 26, 2016, 02:13:48 PM »
Container farming sounds good to people who have never been around an actual farm...

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #30 on: July 26, 2016, 03:54:11 PM »
Container farming sounds good to people who have never been around an actual farm...

Right?

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #31 on: July 27, 2016, 08:24:44 AM »
I can't imagine how container farming is sustainable. It's simple thermodynamics. We get energy from the sun. If you capture that energy using solar panels you only convert part of it to energy. Then more transmission and conversion losses to power the lights. So for the same amount of sunlight, you can only grow a fraction the amount of crops in the container farm than you could in a field outside.

That may be true but if the energy can be harnessed from the sun, stored, and utilized in highly efficient lighting for containers that are now in small square foot area but possibly stacked very high....then you can concentrate a food development source in a low footprint way.  Furthermore, it can allow for year round controlled production (similar to greenhouses but all the time) without the downsides of drought, diseases, pesticides, and whatnot.  Also, maybe the tech will advance to the point where it can produce more than a traditional field...who knows but that's the point of not limiting ones imagination to what CAN be possible vs. what is NOW possible.

Container farming sounds good to people who have never been around an actual farm...

Right?

Shit...container farming should sound good to people who HAVE been around an actual farm.  People who haven't have no idea. 

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #32 on: July 27, 2016, 08:56:28 AM »
Because synthetic nutrients are totally a substitute for soil...

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #33 on: July 27, 2016, 10:53:25 AM »
Because synthetic nutrients are totally a substitute for soil...

Maybe not now, but who's to say they couldn't be developed? Soil contains certain things that are needed for plant growth, but there's certainly something in there that isn't required. On the flip side, other things in soil that are necessary would allow for better plant growth if they were present in a higher concentration (isn't that what fertilizer is for?). Figure out what the plants actually need, synthesize them in the optimal quantity, and leave the rest out.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #34 on: July 27, 2016, 11:00:35 AM »
I'm aware you can grow things decently enough hydroponically.  I still prefer the messy method of growing things in dirt, focused on soil fertility and growth.  I also prefer my eggs from free range chickens, since they're a whole lot tastier than factory-farmed chicken eggs.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #35 on: July 27, 2016, 11:02:39 AM »
I'm aware you can grow things decently enough hydroponically.  I still prefer the messy method of growing things in dirt, focused on soil fertility and growth.  I also prefer my eggs from free range chickens, since they're a whole lot tastier than factory-farmed chicken eggs.

That's nice. Let's not pretend as though most people actually care whether their tomato came from real, actual soil. If it tastes just as good (or close enough) and costs less, it will be a winner in the marketplace.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #36 on: July 27, 2016, 11:08:51 AM »
Container farming?  It never ceases to amaze me what random tangents threads can go off on. 

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #37 on: July 27, 2016, 11:14:58 AM »
That's nice. Let's not pretend as though most people actually care whether their tomato came from real, actual soil. If it tastes just as good (or close enough) and costs less, it will be a winner in the marketplace.

I entirely agree, though modern tomatoes are grown for weight and ability to be transported, so they're utterly devoid of taste compared to older varieties.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #38 on: July 27, 2016, 12:03:30 PM »
Because synthetic nutrients are totally a substitute for soil...

Maybe not now, but who's to say they couldn't be developed? Soil contains certain things that are needed for plant growth, but there's certainly something in there that isn't required. On the flip side, other things in soil that are necessary would allow for better plant growth if they were present in a higher concentration (isn't that what fertilizer is for?). Figure out what the plants actually need, synthesize them in the optimal quantity, and leave the rest out.

Why given a lack of acres of soil does it automatically mean they are synthetic nutrients....the soil is just a medium that holds the nutrients that the crop needs....that's why fields need to be rotated, rested, and/or planted with alternative crops to impart/replace nutrients that were used.

Besides, the point was not about taste or desire, it was about advancement. 

That's nice. Let's not pretend as though most people actually care whether their tomato came from real, actual soil. If it tastes just as good (or close enough) and costs less, it will be a winner in the marketplace.

I entirely agree, though modern tomatoes are grown for weight and ability to be transported, so they're utterly devoid of taste compared to older varieties.

That's true, but it is also true that for distribution and transportation they (along with other fruits and vegetables) are harvested well before ripeness and then continue to ripen through transport - this is the part that hinders flavor the most.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #39 on: July 27, 2016, 12:17:00 PM »
Why given a lack of acres of soil does it automatically mean they are synthetic nutrients....the soil is just a medium that holds the nutrients that the crop needs....that's why fields need to be rotated, rested, and/or planted with alternative crops to impart/replace nutrients that were used.

I fundamentally disagree with you on the bolded point.  That one can grow plants in a sterile medium with some stuff pumped in (sadly, industrial agriculture tends this way as well) does not mean it's the best way to grow plants, or the way to get the healthiest plants, or the best produce for humans.  Focusing on the soil first (which is far, far more than just structure - soil is alive, dirt is dead) is a much better way to grow things.

Quote
Besides, the point was not about taste or desire, it was about advancement. 

You'll excuse me if I don't consider "large, perfect-looking, mostly taste-free tomatoes" to be an "advance" over tomatoes with actual taste, even if they are smaller or "uglier."

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #40 on: July 27, 2016, 12:21:02 PM »
I'm not sure 'advancement' should really be held up as a standard, in and of itself. Driving an automobile is much more advanced than riding a bicycle, but in many situations a bicycle would be preferable, more efficient and better for the environment.  Sure container farming has some advantages over traditional farming, but using land to grow crops that would otherwise be utilized sub-optimally has worked for the planet for many thousand years. I hardly see container gardening changing that drastically, especially since the system has many of the same drawbacks of traditional farming, plus several downsides unique to it.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #41 on: July 27, 2016, 12:50:23 PM »

Quote
Besides, the point was not about taste or desire, it was about advancement. 

You'll excuse me if I don't consider "large, perfect-looking, mostly taste-free tomatoes" to be an "advance" over tomatoes with actual taste, even if they are smaller or "uglier."

I'm not sure 'advancement' should really be held up as a standard, in and of itself. Driving an automobile is much more advanced than riding a bicycle, but in many situations a bicycle would be preferable, more efficient and better for the environment.  Sure container farming has some advantages over traditional farming, but using land to grow crops that would otherwise be utilized sub-optimally has worked for the planet for many thousand years. I hardly see container gardening changing that drastically, especially since the system has many of the same drawbacks of traditional farming, plus several downsides unique to it.

Syonyk/Mouse

The discussion is about things that can cause stock markets/economies to continue to grow and the container farm was noted as an example ot that as it was something that wasn't possible many years ago and has become more economically viable and productive exponentially in the last few years.  Does that mean it is perfect - no.  Does that mean it will get better from here - no.  Does it mean everyone will like it - definitely no given the two of you.  But there are still people who don't like computers or use email or have flip phones....but those individual views does not mean there is not progress/efficiency gains/advancement/productivity gains or whatever else the f*&k you want to call it. 

The fact is the container farm is an example of what COULD be but not what IS today.  Wouldn't it be nice if a major drought, disease or pestilence hit the crops of the US and there was an alternative (but possibly less tasteful one) to feed the masses.

And your view on soil as the only way to get the best flavor lacks vision or at best is filled with stubbornness cause how do you know.  Have you have done a blind taste test between these - not talking about the mass farmed/early picked variety that sit on ships and trucks for weeks before their end destination. 

Soil is alive and dirt isn't - ok semantics, take away the dirt then what is left.....oh the stuff that would go into the container farm....tons of dirt need not apply.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #42 on: July 27, 2016, 12:55:49 PM »
Fine.  Growing food in containers, with solar panels and LEDs, is apparently some sort of magical "advance" that will... dunno.  Something.  Waste a lot of resources, really.  Solar panels don't grow on trees, LEDs don't grow on trees, steel doesn't grow on trees, and don't ask too many questions about the mining of the phosphorous and such needed to grow stuff hydroponically.

Apparently, that you can find an absurd, inefficient way to grow food means it's an Advance, and Advances are Good, so... something?

I'll work with nature, you try to replace nature, and we'll see how that ends up.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #43 on: July 27, 2016, 01:08:39 PM »
Fine.  Growing food in containers, with solar panels and LEDs, is apparently some sort of magical "advance" that will... dunno.  Something.  Waste a lot of resources, really.  Solar panels don't grow on trees, LEDs don't grow on trees, steel doesn't grow on trees, and don't ask too many questions about the mining of the phosphorous and such needed to grow stuff hydroponically.

I guess you must live in a bamboo yurt on your organic farm then, because clearly anything that is manufactured is wasteful....oh wait are you using telepathy to magically type up this message, I know you can't possibly be using computer made wasted resources! 

Apparently, that you can find an absurd, inefficient way to grow food means it's an Advance, and Advances are Good, so... something?

You are injecting bias into the argument because you are incapable of acknowledging that something is possibly an advancement (again in a broader sense, not the specific doesn't taste good to you sense).  I neither said that it was good or bad, it just was, is, and may or may not continue to be.  No different then any other "advancement" that we have seen in history.


I'll work with nature, you try to replace nature, and we'll see how that ends up.

Its actually working quite well as food has never been more abundant, which is also why the cost of food has not grown in line with inflation of time....oh yeah we are also living longer because the medical advancements to fight nature...I hate it when nature loses I wish the tides would turn and go back to the good ole days when we died at 20, 40, 60.....really I can't believe we take advantage of nature that way, we suck as a species.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #44 on: July 27, 2016, 01:23:58 PM »
I guess you must live in a bamboo yurt on your organic farm then, because clearly anything that is manufactured is wasteful....oh wait are you using telepathy to magically type up this message, I know you can't possibly be using computer made wasted resources!

From my office, I can see literally tens of thousands of acres of fields growing things.

I have nothing against manufactured goods.

I do think that using solar panels and LEDs to replace "putting plants out in the sun" is, at best, of questionable usefulness.  Cute at a small scale, useless at a large scale.

The US alone has ~900 million acres of farmland.  You can do the math on the solar panel production required to make even a tiny dent in food production.

Quote
Its actually working quite well as food has never been more abundant, which is also why the cost of food has not grown in line with inflation of time....oh yeah we are also living longer because the medical advancements to fight nature...I hate it when nature loses I wish the tides would turn and go back to the good ole days when we died at 20, 40, 60.....really I can't believe we take advantage of nature that way, we suck as a species.

Have you paid attention to the growing antibiotic resistance of modern infections?  We're likely to get back to that day at some point (probably in my lifetime) when nature wins big against the temporary gains of antibiotics.  That we put them in damned near everything for the hell of it is not going to be viewed as one of the better decisions of our era.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #45 on: July 27, 2016, 02:06:00 PM »
From my office, I can see literally tens of thousands of acres of fields growing things.

I have nothing against manufactured goods.

I do think that using solar panels and LEDs to replace "putting plants out in the sun" is, at best, of questionable usefulness.  Cute at a small scale, useless at a large scale.

The US alone has ~900 million acres of farmland.  You can do the math on the solar panel production required to make even a tiny dent in food production.

You are conflating your OPINION based on CURRENT information/views (likely assumed but still reasonable IMO) with VISION....based on the current environment I am inclined to agree with you, but help me understand why you can't possibly envision this being possible and maybe even probable.   

Quote
Its actually working quite well as food has never been more abundant, which is also why the cost of food has not grown in line with inflation of time....oh yeah we are also living longer because the medical advancements to fight nature...I hate it when nature loses I wish the tides would turn and go back to the good ole days when we died at 20, 40, 60.....really I can't believe we take advantage of nature that way, we suck as a species.

Have you paid attention to the growing antibiotic resistance of modern infections?  We're likely to get back to that day at some point (probably in my lifetime) when nature wins big against the temporary gains of antibiotics.  That we put them in damned near everything for the hell of it is not going to be viewed as one of the better decisions of our era.

Again, your OPINION of one advancement that may prove to be bad but HASN'T YET on a meaningful level, but maybe one day COULD....although its funny how you have vision for the negative but not the positive areas of advancement.   No Columbus, don't do it, the world is flat and you will fall off....

I agree with you that use of antibiotics are over-used and irresponsibly so, but I don't agree that it is a foregone conclusion that the antibiotics were, are, or will prove to be bad.  Antibiotics, as used as an example of an historical advancement, has and continues to save countless lives. And while resistance is growing, we don't know if it will flatten out, decline, grow, or whether or not other treatments will be developed that will counteract it.  We also don't know if resistance will get out of control and result in the next disastrous epidemic that kills millions and millions...that COULD happen too.  We also don't know that this couldn't have happened regardless of over-prescription/use of them, but certainly it contributed to it and may be the only reason.

The difference between you and I is that you are using your OPINION to make biased statements not based on fact, and I am merely providing ideas/advancements that have potential without a view on whether or not they are positive/negative/neutral because they could be any or all of those but the point is that they COULD be.


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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #46 on: July 27, 2016, 03:07:07 PM »
Oh.  Well, I guess if we're using BOLD to make points now...

One can even use LARGER FONTS for more EMPHASIS

Anyway.  Enjoy.  I don't think growing taste-free food in shipping containers qualifies as a useful advance.  You apparently do.  Invest accordingly.  I'm investing based on my views.

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #47 on: July 27, 2016, 03:58:21 PM »
MOD NOTE:  It may behoove everyone to review the "pyramid" image in this thread:
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Metric Mouse

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #48 on: July 28, 2016, 10:40:07 AM »

Quote
Besides, the point was not about taste or desire, it was about advancement. 

You'll excuse me if I don't consider "large, perfect-looking, mostly taste-free tomatoes" to be an "advance" over tomatoes with actual taste, even if they are smaller or "uglier."

I'm not sure 'advancement' should really be held up as a standard, in and of itself. Driving an automobile is much more advanced than riding a bicycle, but in many situations a bicycle would be preferable, more efficient and better for the environment.  Sure container farming has some advantages over traditional farming, but using land to grow crops that would otherwise be utilized sub-optimally has worked for the planet for many thousand years. I hardly see container gardening changing that drastically, especially since the system has many of the same drawbacks of traditional farming, plus several downsides unique to it.

Syonyk/Mouse

The discussion is about things that can cause stock markets/economies to continue to grow and the container farm was noted as an example ot that as it was something that wasn't possible many years ago and has become more economically viable and productive exponentially in the last few years.  Does that mean it is perfect - no.  Does that mean it will get better from here - no.  Does it mean everyone will like it - definitely no given the two of you.  But there are still people who don't like computers or use email or have flip phones....but those individual views does not mean there is not progress/efficiency gains/advancement/productivity gains or whatever else the f*&k you want to call it. 

The fact is the container farm is an example of what COULD be but not what IS today.  Wouldn't it be nice if a major drought, disease or pestilence hit the crops of the US and there was an alternative (but possibly less tasteful one) to feed the masses.

And your view on soil as the only way to get the best flavor lacks vision or at best is filled with stubbornness cause how do you know.  Have you have done a blind taste test between these - not talking about the mass farmed/early picked variety that sit on ships and trucks for weeks before their end destination. 

Soil is alive and dirt isn't - ok semantics, take away the dirt then what is left.....oh the stuff that would go into the container farm....tons of dirt need not apply.

Thank you for explaing your position in more detail. I now understand what you are arguing. You may have chosen a more accurate example of something that was not possible many years ago but is now, and is also practical, like airplanes or i.c.e. automobiles. it would have helped your argument.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2016, 11:49:52 AM by Metric Mouse »

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Re: Why you値l need Dow 150,000 to retire comfortably
« Reply #49 on: July 28, 2016, 11:47:58 AM »
The Second Rule of Wall Street: If you make a price prediction, never put time with it. If you make a time predictions, never put price with it.