Author Topic: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"  (Read 239033 times)

Captain FIRE

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #850 on: January 28, 2022, 11:48:55 AM »
Depending on the age of Missourah's child, their frustration could also be because their daycare is not following current quarantine guidance, which is quarantine for 5 days after last exposure and wear a mask in public for 5 days after that (at least in CO):

https://covid19.colorado.gov/isolation-and-quarantine

So the CDC guidance of 5 days relies on a "well-fitting" mask.  The issue is that many kids can't strictly mask. They also likely remove them for lunch, nap, outdoor play.  Also, when we pick up and drop off kids, we often see someone (or more than one) with the mast below the nose.  That's why my daycare emailed out to all of us to let us know that they were sticking with the 10 days.  That's why my work has kept most if not all people in isolation for 10 days rather than 5, because people with dementia cannot be relied upon to mask strictly anytime someone is near them.

You may not like the rule, but that doesn't mean they aren't following the guidance.  (Also - the guidance sets a minimum not a maximum.  So it's not really right to say they aren't following the guidance, hmm?  You might object they are more strict but it has a whole different connotation to say they aren't following guidance, which is problematic.  I know I'm showing my health care lawyer side here, but it is an important distinction.)

This was largely their argument. They don't want kids wearing masks, they say it's a liability during nap time. I guess my frustration was more along the lines of we would be better off if he had tested positive. His quarantine would have started 5 days sooner. I kind of wish we had known the actual policy. It's possible perhaps even probable he had it, because we all did, just likely asymptomatic, outside of my daughter having an upset stomach for about 6 hours and my wife having a slight headache, congestion, and a light cough we were all asymptomatic. If I had known this was the policy I would have tested the entire family at the same exact time. Just figured we'd test my daughter because she had not been feeling well for a period of time and because she tested positive we'd keep both of them out until she could go back even though he wasn't showing any symptoms.

Yep.  When my friends have had daycare exposure, I've now advised them to pay the money to get them tested immediately, even if that means that they have to test them again at the 5 day mark after exposure.  Yes, it's time from work and a $30 copay for us, but if you are positive the countdown starts sooner.  I sort of figure not everyone is vigilant and testing, so it's easy to get in a classroom and the first report is NOT the first one who had it.  In my son's classroom, 7 people total tested positive in the daycare outbreak (other affected classrooms were much less).  25 total that I know of - kids, teachers, parents.

And yeah, wearing mask at naptime could be a huge liability if something happened.  For the same reason ours won't allow our 21-month old to wear one, even if we want her to, until the day she turns 2.  But then she has to wear it all day, every day.  That's going to be a fun transition, even with us having her practice at home/outings.

Captain FIRE

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #851 on: January 28, 2022, 12:01:14 PM »
Now that we've all gotten or are getting COVID during this current wave, I'm seeing something very interesting. I'm not going to mention specific names, but it seems generally the posters who were heavily pro-restrictions and lockdowns from the beginning are basically saying "We're dying! COVID is really bad! I'm worried we'll be permanently damaged!" while those of us who wanted less restrictions and more normal life are saying "We had the sniffles for a couple days, and barely realized we were sick".

Not to disregard anybody's illness and I'm sure there are other factors involved, but I'm curious if our pre-existing biases sometimes lead us to either exaggerate or downplay the personal effects of this virus.

Eh.  Hard separate it out - anecdotal I'd say.  My oldest had a very light case.  My youngest seemed much worse, but had RSV instead.  (Tested before he was positive, during and after him w/o being positive, so we know she didn't give it to him first.)  I'm still worried about long-covid, and the fact that society reopened and began engaging in much riskier behavior before the kids could be vaccinated.

What I'm getting at is that living in an anxious state as a society is likely causing this type of thing to a lot of people. It doesn't take much of a mental trigger for a bit of brain fog sending you into a spiral of very real health side effects. This isn't to say that long covid isn't real - there are definite cases of permanent damage, but I am curious about how much mental health plays a role in things like this. Especially depending on the information you read. If you are constantly aware of how many hospital beds are available in your area, or that aunt that was put on a ventilator... or the new variant that may or may not respond to vaccines... or that side effects can show up in even asymptomatic cases... or that half of society seems to not care... you are in a state of "fight or flight" which strains the immune system. Some people can take that information in and just brush it off- some people, like me, have to make deliberate decisions to cut the information feed as it does more harm than good.

So...I think yes, some people are deliberately playing ostrich so of course they don't worry about things they don't know about.  And yes, you can get into a tailspin focusing on overly negative things that impairs mental health, impacting physical health.  But...there's also a middle ground where you look, consider the situation and think "this is not good".

I work in a LTC facility, so I can't NOT know how many people at work are testing positive with Omnicron, that the COVID waste water measures skyrocketed, or the latest guidance changes on masking, isolation etc.  Given this, I like to believe I'm in the middle ground.  :)

elaine amj

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Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #852 on: January 28, 2022, 12:16:10 PM »
You could have been making literally the same argument the entire pandemic though.  You got it and it was just the sniffles, no need for any kind of restrictions at all because it's just ruining the economy and destroying lives and it's not even dangerous as evidence of you only getting the sniffles.  No big deal. Except we are still over 900k official deaths in the USA, so it's not just the sniffles for everyone. 

Even the original OG covid was like 50% asymptomatic, so a very good chance you aren't even aware that you're infected - I believe this was the main reason we adopted masks in the first place, because potentially everyone was a vector without even being aware.  The vast majority of the population would say any of the strains of covid that it was no big deal. That's been my experience with most of the people I know that got infected.  Many didn't know, and only knew because they were in close contact with someone.  Many more had extremely mild symptoms.  Some had more severe symptoms, but ultimately no big deal, not even as bad as the flu.  But some of them ended up in ICU, and some of them died.

I'm not saying I'm in favor of extreme restrictions or anything, but I just don't find the personal anecdotes of "we caught it and it was no big deal" very convincing.
+1

It’s very true. For the vast majority of people it is a mild illness. However for significant minority, it is much worse.

The flu also has risks and you’re right, we don’t lock down for the flu. Unless we are in the middle of a worldwide conspiracy where practically every government is spending a ton of money to battle a “plandemic”, then the sheer number of dead people alone tells a story. And not just in the US (since apparently most people who “died of Covid” died due to other reasons since hospital records are faked and doctors are incentivized to pronounce Covid instead of the real cause). I simply don’t understand why people think that it’s possible this scenario is played out in countries all around the world.

Anyway, I really don’t know what the answer is at this stage. I try to take calculated risks since I don’t believe it is a good idea to completely lock down for years on end. In my case, we are FIREd and generally content to live quietly at home. We have high risk factors so we mostly stay at home. We see some people cautiously and occasionally. Currently the surge of cases is high so we are more cautious. We live in Canada and where I live, the majority just mask up although a minority complain and wear them under their noses.


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« Last Edit: January 28, 2022, 12:28:21 PM by elaine amj »

Cranky

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #853 on: January 28, 2022, 12:16:53 PM »
I actually have *not* gotten Covid. Indeed, I may be the only person left in America who hasn’t had a single Covid test.

My position is that yes, for many people it will be a mild illness, but for 800,000 Americans, not so much.

I think that the restrictions we’ve had in the US have been extremely light, and anybody who wants to live a “normal” life can do so, they they may be required to wear a mask, but plenty of places don’t require that. Go on vacation! Go to crowded indoor events! Eat in a restaurant! Nobody is stopping you.

What I’ve learned in the last two years is that I always said I was a homebody, and I was right!

seattlecyclone

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #854 on: January 28, 2022, 12:49:26 PM »
If you want to exceed these guidelines in a way that costs me time and money, you had better have a good reason other than "just being cautious." Maybe the daycare has a number of kids who live with unvaccinated grandparents or something of that nature, in which case it would make sense to go a little bit above the level of precaution that makes sense for the general population. But if that is the case, there should be a daycare option that just goes with the standard guidance that you can switch to. If they're all going above and beyond without any specific reason for doing so, I think that's a problem.

Ok.  You don't like the reason I offered, but it's still a "specific reason".  The inability of children in daycare to consistently wear a well-fitting mask is a specific reason.  (Yes, it would be great if CDC put out specific daycare guidance, but they don't.)

Here's exactly what my daycare wrote: "We are aware the CDC changed its guidelines for isolating and quarantining. However, because a large part of the recommendations involves stringent mask wearing we will not be adopting these changes. Children under two are not wearing masks and those two and over take them off masks at meal and rest times."

I guess the way I see it, one of two things must be true. Option 1: the CDC has declined to issue specific daycare guidelines because they have collected and studied the evidence, determined that daycares don't really have an especially different risk profile to anywhere else that people congregate, and the daycares with stricter-than-recommended quarantine requirements are probably overreacting. Option 2: the CDC has incompetently ignored the evidence that daycares are especially risky, and different quarantine requirements are actually the right way to go. I'm not sure which of these options is true in practice. Again, I sure would like to believe that the CDC knows a thing or two about controlling and preventing disease and that we should be able to trust their recommendations.

Captain FIRE

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #855 on: January 28, 2022, 12:52:51 PM »
I think that the restrictions we’ve had in the US have been extremely light, and anybody who wants to live a “normal” life can do so, they they may be required to wear a mask, but plenty of places don’t require that. Go on vacation! Go to crowded indoor events! Eat in a restaurant! Nobody is stopping you.

This is what gets me.  People can make their own choices.  For example, an employer can choose whether or not to hire only vaccinated people.  A daycare can set it's own policies on attendance/sick etc.  So ultimately the actual government restrictions we are talking about are:
- Mask indoors in some places

That's it!  (That I can think of.  I could be wrong and I'll edit according if so.  And I acknowledge there are ***very rare*** places officials are imposing vaccination requirements but most are imposed by private individuals but that's negligible.)

So when you say you "want to get back to normal" I start to wonder if what you really mean is "I want you to change what you personally are doing".  I'm not stopping you from getting on the plane or going to the restaurant - but neither can you make me if I don't want to, for whatever reason, COVID or otherwise.  (And consider, do you really want more traffic on the road, more crowded restaurants and Disney World?)  If you don't like the daycare or employer policy, you are free to find a different daycare or employer.  But they get to run their business in a way they think works best for them - whether if that's to avoid liability, limit shutdowns, etc.

Captain FIRE

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #856 on: January 28, 2022, 12:58:30 PM »
If you want to exceed these guidelines in a way that costs me time and money, you had better have a good reason other than "just being cautious." Maybe the daycare has a number of kids who live with unvaccinated grandparents or something of that nature, in which case it would make sense to go a little bit above the level of precaution that makes sense for the general population. But if that is the case, there should be a daycare option that just goes with the standard guidance that you can switch to. If they're all going above and beyond without any specific reason for doing so, I think that's a problem.

Ok.  You don't like the reason I offered, but it's still a "specific reason".  The inability of children in daycare to consistently wear a well-fitting mask is a specific reason.  (Yes, it would be great if CDC put out specific daycare guidance, but they don't.)

Here's exactly what my daycare wrote: "We are aware the CDC changed its guidelines for isolating and quarantining. However, because a large part of the recommendations involves stringent mask wearing we will not be adopting these changes. Children under two are not wearing masks and those two and over take them off masks at meal and rest times."

I guess the way I see it, one of two things must be true. Option 1: the CDC has declined to issue specific daycare guidelines because they have collected and studied the evidence, determined that daycares don't really have an especially different risk profile to anywhere else that people congregate, and the daycares with stricter-than-recommended quarantine requirements are probably overreacting. Option 2: the CDC has incompetently ignored the evidence that daycares are especially risky, and different quarantine requirements are actually the right way to go. I'm not sure which of these options is true in practice. Again, I sure would like to believe that the CDC knows a thing or two about controlling and preventing disease and that we should be able to trust their recommendations.

What about Option 3: They feel the requirement to wear a "well-fitting mask" covers a variety of situations and *is* sufficient advice?

Just again - if you can't wear a well-fitting mask, CDC already advises what to do in that situation (10 days not 5).  People with dementia and other challenges at my work have to stay on isolation for 10 days due to that guidance.  Why do they need to specifically call out daycares?

Yes, daycare could make a rule that say "We think 5 years old can mask properly and might also be vaccinated but 0-4 can't, so they can do 5 days" but administering it for the two different populations I imagine would be a bear and result in more angry parent calls.  And it's hard to know where to draw the line...5?  4?  (Frankly I see teachers with masks under their noses so maybe age is a bad criterion...)

The 585

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #857 on: January 28, 2022, 01:08:39 PM »
I think that the restrictions we’ve had in the US have been extremely light, and anybody who wants to live a “normal” life can do so, they they may be required to wear a mask, but plenty of places don’t require that. Go on vacation! Go to crowded indoor events! Eat in a restaurant! Nobody is stopping you.

Yes, I agree. I lived in Italy for most of the pandemic, so I kinda chuckle when I hear people in the US complain about a "lockdown". Maybe that's why I've grown so bitter about rules and restrictions. Because I had to spend months at a time forced to stay isolated alone in my apartment, with police patrolling the streets giving hefty fines to those found walking the streets "without essential" reason. But anywho, that just reflects the differing approach between the US and EU. And I'll take the US approach anyday.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #858 on: January 28, 2022, 01:16:49 PM »
(Frankly I see teachers with masks under their noses so maybe age is a bad criterion...)

Exactly, adults are often bad at mask-wearing too! To be honest when I spent last year helping out in a 3-5 year old preschool class the kids were uniformly quite good at mask wearing. It was just a normal part of their routine.

The CDC should of course be aware that mask compliance is never perfect and make guidelines that take this into account. It seems entirely plausible to me that worse mask-wearing among the three-year-old population is cancelled out (and then some) by the fact that they have less personal risk of bad outcomes from the disease, have less risk of spreading the disease because lower lung capacity means the droplets don't travel as far, and they tend to live with people who are also young enough to not be at super high risk.

I would like to believe the CDC is aware of all these factors, weighs them in a reasonable manner, and we can just trust their recommendations. Instead we have daycares saying they're not comfortable with the guidelines because of one factor that might make them riskier than average, but they're not equipped to do a real analysis of whether the mitigating factors I mentioned might outweigh that and make supplemental restrictions unnecessary. That's what the CDC is for. Can we trust them or not?

Villanelle

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #859 on: January 28, 2022, 01:33:12 PM »
Now that we've all gotten or are getting COVID during this current wave, I'm seeing something very interesting. I'm not going to mention specific names, but it seems generally the posters who were heavily pro-restrictions and lockdowns from the beginning are basically saying "We're dying! COVID is really bad! I'm worried we'll be permanently damaged!" while those of us who wanted less restrictions and more normal life are saying "We had the sniffles for a couple days, and barely realized we were sick".

Not to disregard anybody's illness and I'm sure there are other factors involved, but I'm curious if our pre-existing biases sometimes lead us to either exaggerate or downplay the personal effects of this virus.

This is not at all what I've seeing and I'm wondering if it isn't actually a pre-exisiting bias that causes some people to see this as a pre-existing bias.  lol

The person I know who has been hit hardest by Covid--got it in summer of 2020, so fairly early on, and is still in very bad physical shape because of it, not able to reliably work, etc.--was the biggest Covid denier I know.  In many ways, he still is.  His dad is in his 80s and having some significant dimension, flat-affect, and other symptoms.  The person attributes those things in large part to "stress caused by being forced to stay home, wear a mask, etc.".  He thinks the Covid stats are outright lies.  And yet even after having Covid, being hospitalized repeatedly and intubated for quite a while, and still have a body that is nowhere near 100%, his is still downplaying the virus.  Even with his own body as evidence, he can't step away from his biases at all.  (He's a hard core Trumper, conspiracy guy.)  The cognitive dissonance is incredible. 

For more evidence that "don't think it is a big deal or that we need all the restrictions" doesn't generally lead to reports of mild cases, look no further than the many vocal Covid deniers or restriction protestors who have died.  I think someone posted a link in this thread to may examples. 

And I know many people who were (and are) in favor of restrictions who had extremely mild or even asymptomatic cases.

So in my orbit, there seems to be no relationship at al between severity of disease (and the reports of severity of the disease) and support or non-support of restrictions or the level of worry about the disease. 

I'm not sure where I fall.  I supported lockdowns and restrictions, but not because I was ever personally all that afraid of getting Covid.  I was afraid for the medical system and for vulnerable people, and in favor of everyone doing as much as they could (especially initially when it seems we still might be able to stuff the cat back into the bag for good).  When I had my presumptive case, it wasn't fun, but it was like a bad cold any other year--an unpleasant annoyance, I suppose.  I didn't bother to test because I was never alarmingly sick and it didn't seem to matter whether this was a cold, or Covid.  And now, I have this ongoing weird symptom, 2 months later, which I'm told could go away at any time, or last for months more.   

Fish Sweet

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #860 on: January 28, 2022, 02:15:47 PM »
Now that we've all gotten or are getting COVID during this current wave, I'm seeing something very interesting. I'm not going to mention specific names, but it seems generally the posters who were heavily pro-restrictions and lockdowns from the beginning are basically saying "We're dying! COVID is really bad! I'm worried we'll be permanently damaged!" while those of us who wanted less restrictions and more normal life are saying "We had the sniffles for a couple days, and barely realized we were sick".

Not to disregard anybody's illness and I'm sure there are other factors involved, but I'm curious if our pre-existing biases sometimes lead us to either exaggerate or downplay the personal effects of this virus.
...I mean. If a person who wanted less restrictions and a more normal life were to uh, die of covid, then they wouldn't exactly be here posting about how they had the sniffles for a couple of days.

And if I'm going off the general attitude of people I know who were determined to think of covid as nothing more than a mild cold to full blown made up government lies (I do want to clarify I'm not addressing anyone on the forum in this instance, rather people IRL I have known), then even if they ended up intubated for a week in the hospital while their spouse and sibling died of covid in the beds next to them... they'd be back at it again the next month telling people that it wasn't really that bad.  That their lack of smell and chronic fatigue is just stress unrelated to the pandemic.  That their spouse and sibling had XYZ preexisting symptoms and the doctors just misdiagnosed them as dying of covid, because it makes the hospital more money.  And on and on. Pre-existing biases and all that.

For the cautious, pro-restriction folks I know, it's just been the same mixed bag of 'absolutely nothing, not a single symptom' to 'mild cold' to 'bad flu' to 'lasting racking cough and exhaustion' to full blown long covid (one of my acquaintances has barely been able to taste a thing since April 2020, when she caught it as a frontline healthcare worker.) No deaths, thankfully.

As another one of the "last people in America" who has never caught covid, I've no wish to stick my hand into that grab-bag and see what I get. I'm hoping to avoid it til the end!

The 585

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #861 on: January 28, 2022, 03:37:02 PM »
Now that we've all gotten or are getting COVID during this current wave, I'm seeing something very interesting. I'm not going to mention specific names, but it seems generally the posters who were heavily pro-restrictions and lockdowns from the beginning are basically saying "We're dying! COVID is really bad! I'm worried we'll be permanently damaged!" while those of us who wanted less restrictions and more normal life are saying "We had the sniffles for a couple days, and barely realized we were sick".

Not to disregard anybody's illness and I'm sure there are other factors involved, but I'm curious if our pre-existing biases sometimes lead us to either exaggerate or downplay the personal effects of this virus.

Nah, there's a whole subreddit that laughs at people who wanted no restrictions and refused to get vaccinated only to die from covid.

https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward/

in case you're curious

I was talking specific to these forums, not in general. Sorry.. I should have specified.

Missy B

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #862 on: January 28, 2022, 04:37:08 PM »
Now that we've all gotten or are getting COVID during this current wave, I'm seeing something very interesting. I'm not going to mention specific names, but it seems generally the posters who were heavily pro-restrictions and lockdowns from the beginning are basically saying "We're dying! COVID is really bad! I'm worried we'll be permanently damaged!" while those of us who wanted less restrictions and more normal life are saying "We had the sniffles for a couple days, and barely realized we were sick".

Not to disregard anybody's illness and I'm sure there are other factors involved, but I'm curious if our pre-existing biases sometimes lead us to either exaggerate or downplay the personal effects of this virus.

This is not at all what I've seeing and I'm wondering if it isn't actually a pre-exisiting bias that causes some people to see this as a pre-existing bias.  lol

The person I know who has been hit hardest by Covid--got it in summer of 2020, so fairly early on, and is still in very bad physical shape because of it, not able to reliably work, etc.--was the biggest Covid denier I know.  In many ways, he still is.  His dad is in his 80s and having some significant dimension, flat-affect, and other symptoms.  The person attributes those things in large part to "stress caused by being forced to stay home, wear a mask, etc.".  He thinks the Covid stats are outright lies.  And yet even after having Covid, being hospitalized repeatedly and intubated for quite a while, and still have a body that is nowhere near 100%, his is still downplaying the virus.  Even with his own body as evidence, he can't step away from his biases at all.  (He's a hard core Trumper, conspiracy guy.)  The cognitive dissonance is incredible. 

I've come to think of this sort of attitude and denial as an expression of mental illness -- very possibly a kind of mental illness that hasn't been seen as such, and didn't have really recognisable signs and symptoms before the last few years. Normally we consider people in that kind of denial to be mentally ill, rather than agreeing that they just have a different opinion about what reality is.

I started wondering about this after realizing that a lot of the egregiously bad behaviours and attitudes I was seeing -- arrogantly defended by the doers as absolutely justified -- were of the kind I normally expect from someone with a personality disorder. It made me question whether we actually have a lot of people going around with a subclinical mental illness of some kind. And about how we define mental illness.

clifp

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #863 on: January 28, 2022, 08:21:56 PM »
Imparting lasting psychological damage on children, all in the name of keeping adults "safe". Its unbelievably selfish.

Meanwhile, knowing that your own grandma is dead, Mrs.Jones from the cafeteria is dead, and Mr.Phillips the janitor is dead also, does not impart lasting psychological damage on children.

Shouldn't all of these people be safe if they are vaccinated? That's what all the data seems to be saying. I'd argue if Mrs. Jones doesn't want to get vaccinated she probably shouldn't be working in a school cafeteria during a pandemic. Same for Mr. Phillips.

You are much safer if you are vaccinated but I wouldn't use the word that safe.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm?s_cid=mm7104e2_w

During April 4–December 25, 2021, a total of 6,812,040 COVID-19 cases among unvaccinated persons and 2,866,517 cases among fully vaccinated persons were reported among persons aged ≥18 years in 25 U.S. jurisdictions; 94,640 and 22,567 COVID-19–associated deaths among unvaccinated and fully vaccinated persons, respectively, were reported by December 4 (Table 1). Average weekly, age-standardized rates of cases and deaths (events per 100,000 population) were higher during periods of Delta predominance and Omicron emergence than during pre-Delta and Delta emergence periods and were consistently higher in all periods among unvaccinated persons (range = 64.0–725.6 [cases] and 1.5–11.4 [deaths]) than among fully vaccinated persons (range = 7.4–230.9 and 0.1–0.

So a total of 22,567 deaths among fully vaccinated, now obviously compared to the 94,640 folks who died who are unvaccinated, this is a big difference, especially when we factor we have almost twice as many vaccinate folks as unvaccinated. Vaccinated deaths represent 19% of all Covid deaths during this period. When you figure that survey covered a bit more than 1/2 the population and less than 9 months. It seems that roughly 60,000 vaccinate folks died of Covid last year. That is roughly equivalent to traffic accident deaths in 2020 + homicides in 2020.  So if you never are concerned about being murdered or killed in a traffic accident, than I guess you are safe.

Abe

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #864 on: January 28, 2022, 08:39:07 PM »
Cases are coming down nationally, and hospitalizations will also (with the expected lag time). Going forward I anticipate a low incidence of severe COVID amongst the vaccinated, whereas the the unvaccinated will have intermittent spikes of infection and death. I guess we're two societies now, one that just gets vaccinated another that accepts a mid-1800s mindset of "God came for ____, nothing we could do!" and moves on as friends / family die.

There is a sub-group of people who are immunocompromised & vaccinated, and thus have a 20-30% increased risk of dying from COVID compared to none-immunocompromised & vaccinated people.

I anticipate quarantine & isolation recommendations will continue, but larger-scale mitigation will end. Some will chose to continue to die on this hill, others won't and yet others don't get a choice. In a society with such a high fraction of callous people, there is not really much chance of mitigating these future spikes. Thus begins the era of assessing one's own risk and living with the consequences. There is no reason at this point to suspect that covid will disappear, and most likely it will be endemic. We have unfortunately reached the point of "well, x number of people die from y every year, so why not throw another stick in the fire?" I just find it interesting how many people are willing to throw themselves onto said fire.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #865 on: January 28, 2022, 10:50:19 PM »
Not posting for debate, but just to comment back to OP based on my current outlook from European perspective. It may turn out to be misguided, eventually, as I have been in the camp of being highly cautious with SARS-Cov-2, so far, but feeling optimistic now.

Now, I am in the camp "endgame". We are moving out of Omicron phase over the next few weeks. So, give and take a few weeks, I expect the pandemic in our part of the woods being "over" within the next 6 weeks (my personal estimates based on the figures of ONS and UKHSA plus looking at neighbouring European countries).


Which activities have you resumed doing and which ones are you not ready for yet, if ever?  If you are still holding back from a pre-pandemic activity, do you have some type of metric that will make it okay for you again?
We will keep up masking and social distance until about April, I reckon, just to avoid the end-tail of current Omicron wave. We plan to travel again this year (within Europe - assuming no full-fledge war with Russia). Other than that: keeping up the hygiene and avoidance of crowds (never liked crowds anyway). We've lost interest in eating out or shopping already years ago, so this will not change much. Probably increase social distancing again next autumn to see how SARS-Cov-2 evolves. Then take it from there.

So, personally speaking, feeling pretty much done with it.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #866 on: January 29, 2022, 05:11:59 AM »
In my sphere covid has been a catastrophe in a strange way. It feels like everyone previously had real social lives and kept connections and at least felt obligated to put effort into them. Covid seems to have been a bad influence and allowed them to indulge in isolation and poor mental and physical habits. I thought this would relent when we got vaccinated but it now seems to be a permanent change.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #867 on: January 29, 2022, 06:35:45 AM »
Now, I am in the camp "endgame". We are moving out of Omicron phase over the next few weeks. So, give and take a few weeks, I expect the pandemic in our part of the woods being "over" within the next 6 weeks (my personal estimates based on the figures of ONS and UKHSA plus looking at neighbouring European countries).

Thanks for the Europe perspective and outlook. I hope you're right, I'm hoping to move back to Europe in the next few months! My two years there were sort of ruined by the pandemic.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #868 on: January 29, 2022, 06:36:47 AM »
In my sphere covid has been a catastrophe in a strange way. It feels like everyone previously had real social lives and kept connections and at least felt obligated to put effort into them. Covid seems to have been a bad influence and allowed them to indulge in isolation and poor mental and physical habits. I thought this would relent when we got vaccinated but it now seems to be a permanent change.

Agreed.. it's further fueled by a lot of jobs moving permanently remote. I think there's a big benefit of being physically in the office and I actually prefer it.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #869 on: January 29, 2022, 08:03:10 AM »
In my sphere covid has been a catastrophe in a strange way. It feels like everyone previously had real social lives and kept connections and at least felt obligated to put effort into them. Covid seems to have been a bad influence and allowed them to indulge in isolation and poor mental and physical habits. I thought this would relent when we got vaccinated but it now seems to be a permanent change.

People handle things differently.  While certainly is for some, isolation isn't a poor mental habit for everyone - in some cases it's a significant mental improvement over the enforced extroversion that we've had to endure for much of our lives.

I'd personally prefer slightly more human contact that we've had for the past couple years.  But only slightly.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #870 on: January 29, 2022, 08:16:22 AM »
Our school system announced yesterday afternoon that they are dropping mask wearing (again) and also contact tracing (because it is too hard to stay on top of it in a timely fashion), and also any quarantining now. But they reserve the right to institute masks again if they have to close the schools down for absences.

They will now follow the same procedures for any other illness, which is please don't send your child to school when they have a fever.

We were surprised, but then we heard from a friend last night that they are facing another lawsuit and the rumor mill says this one has big money behind it. Rumor mill said the school board (which narrowly survived November's election) decided they can't waste funds fighting this.


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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #871 on: January 29, 2022, 08:22:36 AM »
In my sphere covid has been a catastrophe in a strange way. It feels like everyone previously had real social lives and kept connections and at least felt obligated to put effort into them. Covid seems to have been a bad influence and allowed them to indulge in isolation and poor mental and physical habits. I thought this would relent when we got vaccinated but it now seems to be a permanent change.

People handle things differently.  While certainly is for some, isolation isn't a poor mental habit for everyone - in some cases it's a significant mental improvement over the enforced extroversion that we've had to endure for much of our lives.

I'd personally prefer slightly more human contact that we've had for the past couple years.  But only slightly.

What I've noticed is that it has changed the dynamics overall, to some it's been a benefit, to others they have struggled. Many who have enjoyed the change seem to be those that felt their voices were not being heard in large office settings. It seems harder for big, boisterous personalities to dominate when more of the work has shifted online.

There's also the social dynamic.  For some the loss of close contact with coworkers has been a net loss, while for others the increased time spent with family (or the decrease in a more toxic work environment) has been a net positive.

It's hard to make broad sweeping generalizations, and I expect sociologists to spend the next few decades teasing out the human impacts of "the covid period'.


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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #872 on: January 29, 2022, 08:48:01 AM »
Our school system announced yesterday afternoon that they are dropping mask wearing (again) and also contact tracing (because it is too hard to stay on top of it in a timely fashion), and also any quarantining now. But they reserve the right to institute masks again if they have to close the schools down for absences.

They will now follow the same procedures for any other illness, which is please don't send your child to school when they have a fever.

We were surprised, but then we heard from a friend last night that they are facing another lawsuit and the rumor mill says this one has big money behind it. Rumor mill said the school board (which narrowly survived November's election) decided they can't waste funds fighting this.

United States?  Which state?

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #873 on: January 29, 2022, 09:40:59 AM »
Our school system announced yesterday afternoon that they are dropping mask wearing (again) and also contact tracing (because it is too hard to stay on top of it in a timely fashion), and also any quarantining now. But they reserve the right to institute masks again if they have to close the schools down for absences.

They will now follow the same procedures for any other illness, which is please don't send your child to school when they have a fever.

We were surprised, but then we heard from a friend last night that they are facing another lawsuit and the rumor mill says this one has big money behind it. Rumor mill said the school board (which narrowly survived November's election) decided they can't waste funds fighting this.

United States?  Which state?

Yep, US - Ohio.

I did a little googling and it does look like there are some lawsuits in the news for nearby schools (in both the Akron and Toledo areas), but nothing published for my school district yet.

I would assume a positive covid test also counts for staying home - but wonder if people will bother to test if their child doesn't have a fever or more obvious symptoms. But the email just said "we strongly recommend you follow CDC guidelines for reporting and quarantine."   

The state health director did give guidance this week that apparently said: “the quick spread of the Omicron variant and its rapid clinical course have made universal contact tracing, case investigation and exposure notification impractical.” So the district is 100% in the clear to do this. And fwiw - he's probably right? But it also feels like throwing in the towel.

This is also the fourth director our state has had since the start of the pandemic. Our first two quit because of death threats and harassment. Each subsequent director has loosened restrictions further. (I am not saying this is right or wrong - just something we've noticed.)
« Last Edit: January 29, 2022, 09:49:50 AM by StarBright »

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #874 on: January 29, 2022, 09:52:02 AM »
Our school system announced yesterday afternoon that they are dropping mask wearing (again) and also contact tracing (because it is too hard to stay on top of it in a timely fashion), and also any quarantining now. But they reserve the right to institute masks again if they have to close the schools down for absences.

They will now follow the same procedures for any other illness, which is please don't send your child to school when they have a fever.


Our small private school dropped masks in September, and now the state has told them they don't have to contact trace so the school will no longer be doing that.
This will likely be the end of quarantine and kids testing positive for COVID (in my area) because without the required testing that comes with contact tracing most parents won't test. They'll just keep their kids home until any symptoms resolve and not even try to find out what if it's COVID or a cold.
I'm fine with this, but it would be really difficult if I had anyone immune compromised or elderly in my immediate family. Those folks are just going to have to assume everyone they see has COVID for awhile.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #875 on: January 29, 2022, 10:59:50 AM »
Our school system announced yesterday afternoon that they are dropping mask wearing (again) and also contact tracing (because it is too hard to stay on top of it in a timely fashion), and also any quarantining now. But they reserve the right to institute masks again if they have to close the schools down for absences.

They will now follow the same procedures for any other illness, which is please don't send your child to school when they have a fever.

We were surprised, but then we heard from a friend last night that they are facing another lawsuit and the rumor mill says this one has big money behind it. Rumor mill said the school board (which narrowly survived November's election) decided they can't waste funds fighting this.

United States?  Which state?

Yep, US - Ohio.

I did a little googling and it does look like there are some lawsuits in the news for nearby schools (in both the Akron and Toledo areas), but nothing published for my school district yet.

I would assume a positive covid test also counts for staying home - but wonder if people will bother to test if their child doesn't have a fever or more obvious symptoms. But the email just said "we strongly recommend you follow CDC guidelines for reporting and quarantine."   

The state health director did give guidance this week that apparently said: “the quick spread of the Omicron variant and its rapid clinical course have made universal contact tracing, case investigation and exposure notification impractical.” So the district is 100% in the clear to do this. And fwiw - he's probably right? But it also feels like throwing in the towel.

This is also the fourth director our state has had since the start of the pandemic. Our first two quit because of death threats and harassment. Each subsequent director has loosened restrictions further. (I am not saying this is right or wrong - just something we've noticed.)

Yes. In Michigan, we've lost our Chief Medical Officer and Director of Health and Human Services. We've also had death threats against various health officials and threats against school board members across the state.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #876 on: January 29, 2022, 06:11:53 PM »
Our school system announced yesterday afternoon that they are dropping mask wearing (again) and also contact tracing (because it is too hard to stay on top of it in a timely fashion), and also any quarantining now. But they reserve the right to institute masks again if they have to close the schools down for absences.

They will now follow the same procedures for any other illness, which is please don't send your child to school when they have a fever.

We were surprised, but then we heard from a friend last night that they are facing another lawsuit and the rumor mill says this one has big money behind it. Rumor mill said the school board (which narrowly survived November's election) decided they can't waste funds fighting this.

United States?  Which state?

Yep, US - Ohio.

I did a little googling and it does look like there are some lawsuits in the news for nearby schools (in both the Akron and Toledo areas), but nothing published for my school district yet.

I would assume a positive covid test also counts for staying home - but wonder if people will bother to test if their child doesn't have a fever or more obvious symptoms. But the email just said "we strongly recommend you follow CDC guidelines for reporting and quarantine."   

The state health director did give guidance this week that apparently said: “the quick spread of the Omicron variant and its rapid clinical course have made universal contact tracing, case investigation and exposure notification impractical.” So the district is 100% in the clear to do this. And fwiw - he's probably right? But it also feels like throwing in the towel.

This is also the fourth director our state has had since the start of the pandemic. Our first two quit because of death threats and harassment. Each subsequent director has loosened restrictions further. (I am not saying this is right or wrong - just something we've noticed.)

I am hoping this becomes a trend

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #877 on: January 29, 2022, 07:45:19 PM »
Our school system announced yesterday afternoon that they are dropping mask wearing (again) and also contact tracing (because it is too hard to stay on top of it in a timely fashion), and also any quarantining now. But they reserve the right to institute masks again if they have to close the schools down for absences.

They will now follow the same procedures for any other illness, which is please don't send your child to school when they have a fever.

We were surprised, but then we heard from a friend last night that they are facing another lawsuit and the rumor mill says this one has big money behind it. Rumor mill said the school board (which narrowly survived November's election) decided they can't waste funds fighting this.

United States?  Which state?

Yep, US - Ohio.

I did a little googling and it does look like there are some lawsuits in the news for nearby schools (in both the Akron and Toledo areas), but nothing published for my school district yet.

I would assume a positive covid test also counts for staying home - but wonder if people will bother to test if their child doesn't have a fever or more obvious symptoms. But the email just said "we strongly recommend you follow CDC guidelines for reporting and quarantine."   

The state health director did give guidance this week that apparently said: “the quick spread of the Omicron variant and its rapid clinical course have made universal contact tracing, case investigation and exposure notification impractical.” So the district is 100% in the clear to do this. And fwiw - he's probably right? But it also feels like throwing in the towel.

This is also the fourth director our state has had since the start of the pandemic. Our first two quit because of death threats and harassment. Each subsequent director has loosened restrictions further. (I am not saying this is right or wrong - just something we've noticed.)

I am hoping this becomes a trend

The death threats or the loosened restrictions? (I’m kidding).

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #878 on: January 30, 2022, 07:53:37 AM »
Lol, from the reddit linked above: Patton Oswalt tweeted "When the polio vaccine dropped in 1955 people lined up to get it, & we were 2 years away from artificial satellites. Now in 2021 we carry external world-brains in our pockets and there's robots on Mars and idiots think the COVID vaccine is full of wizard poison."

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #879 on: January 30, 2022, 08:16:13 AM »
Lol, from the reddit linked above: Patton Oswalt tweeted "When the polio vaccine dropped in 1955 people lined up to get it, & we were 2 years away from artificial satellites. Now in 2021 we carry external world-brains in our pockets and there's robots on Mars and idiots think the COVID vaccine is full of wizard poison."

So people let those external world-brains do their thinking and use their own brains   to only process lizard-brain emotions?  Seems about right.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #880 on: January 30, 2022, 09:24:38 AM »
It would be interesting to see what % of people 18+ have received no vaccine and also have not gotten Covid at this point (I.e. true Sars-cov-2 virgins). I feel like people are creating a fictional "unvaccinated" enemy at this point.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #881 on: January 30, 2022, 09:46:06 AM »
^Oh, there are still plenty, but at the rate of infections in the US this past month, there won't be for long here. Other countries that had more zealous lockdowns likely have the majority fo the population uninfected (although, to be fair, most of the people in those countries are now vaccinated.)

Meanwhile, 2300 people died from COVID in the US yesterday. Maybe it's just me, but that seems like a lot of people dying in a single day.


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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #882 on: January 30, 2022, 09:50:13 AM »
It would be interesting to see what % of people 18+ have received no vaccine and also have not gotten Covid at this point (I.e. true Sars-cov-2 virgins). I feel like people are creating a fictional "unvaccinated" enemy at this point.

Why must they be both unvaccinated and have never gotten Covid before?  At this point I have very limited patience for people in the US who have refused to get vaccinated*.


*excluding the very small percentage of people for whom a vaccine is not recommended.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #883 on: January 30, 2022, 09:50:30 AM »
It would be interesting to see what % of people 18+ have received no vaccine and also have not gotten Covid at this point (I.e. true Sars-cov-2 virgins). I feel like people are creating a fictional "unvaccinated" enemy at this point.

Over the past month the typical unvaccinated person in my county is 12x more likely to be hospitalized for COVID and 17x more likely to die than the typical vaccinated person of the same age. Whatever protection they may or may not be getting from prior infection is still leaving them an order of magnitude more likely to require hospital care.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #884 on: January 30, 2022, 09:51:59 AM »
^Oh, there are still plenty, but at the rate of infections in the US this past month, there won't be for long here. Other countries that had more zealous lockdowns likely have the majority fo the population uninfected (although, to be fair, most of the people in those countries are now vaccinated.)

Meanwhile, 2300 people died from COVID in the US yesterday. Maybe it's just me, but that seems like a lot of people dying in a single day.

In my "red" state the Mayo Clinic data has us at close to 90% of those 30+ having had at least one dose. If we assume even a small fraction of those 10% have come into contact with the virus (at this point I think I only know like 10 people who haven't gotten covid). We are looking at a fraction of that 10% and I live in Arkansas, lol probably one of the worst states when it comes to vaccination rates. My point is that the people with almost no protection against the virus at this point in the US are likely a tiny minority, but people like Patton Oswalt are tweeting like it's basically half of the US.

jrhampt

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #885 on: January 30, 2022, 09:56:41 AM »
The U.S.  has only 63% of the total population fully vaccinated (1 or 2 dose series, not including booster).  There is a small portion of the population 5 and under who can’t get a vaccine.  Still, that’s over a third of us who haven’t gotten vaccinated, most of them for no good reason.  That’s absurdly high.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #886 on: January 30, 2022, 10:14:46 AM »
^Oh, there are still plenty, but at the rate of infections in the US this past month, there won't be for long here. Other countries that had more zealous lockdowns likely have the majority fo the population uninfected (although, to be fair, most of the people in those countries are now vaccinated.)

Meanwhile, 2300 people died from COVID in the US yesterday. Maybe it's just me, but that seems like a lot of people dying in a single day.

In my "red" state the Mayo Clinic data has us at close to 90% of those 30+ having had at least one dose. If we assume even a small fraction of those 10% have come into contact with the virus (at this point I think I only know like 10 people who haven't gotten covid). We are looking at a fraction of that 10% and I live in Arkansas, lol probably one of the worst states when it comes to vaccination rates. My point is that the people with almost no protection against the virus at this point in the US are likely a tiny minority, but people like Patton Oswalt are tweeting like it's basically half of the US.

Only 65% of Michiganders have received at least one dose of vaccine. I live in Wayne County, the most populous in the state at 1.7 million people (including the city of Detroit), where only 56% of the population has received at least one dose of vaccine. The second-most populous county, Kent (including the city of Grand Rapids), has a one-dose vaccination rate of 60.6%. As with everything else about this pandemic, one area's experiences cannot be extrapolated to other areas, as the circumstances are likely quite different.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #887 on: January 30, 2022, 10:19:03 AM »
The U.S.  has only 63% of the total population fully vaccinated (1 or 2 dose series, not including booster).  There is a small portion of the population 5 and under who can’t get a vaccine.  Still, that’s over a third of us who haven’t gotten vaccinated, most of them for no good reason.  That’s absurdly high.

According to the mayo clinic 75.9% of the US has had at least one dose. Maybe their data is wrong.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

If you break it down by age it goes as following:

18-24: 74.8%
25-39: 77.4%
40-49: 84.6%
50-64: 91.3%
65+: 99.9%

if you were to take a weighted average of that you'd probably be looking at ~85% of those 18+ that have had at least one dose and of those likely to be severely negatively impacted from the virus you are looking at ~93%+. Obviously there are still people that haven't gotten vaccinated, but my main point was that it's an extreme minority yet people keep talking about it on the news and social media like it's half our population.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #888 on: January 30, 2022, 10:27:14 AM »
Fully vaccinated means 1 dose J&J or 2 dose mRNA.  I’m sure more have been partially vaccinated, like my uncle who received a first dose back when he became eligible, but then fell prey to misinformation and refused to get his second dose, also convincing my parents and another sibling to not get vaccinated.  I do wonder how many of those with one dose will never get fully vaccinated.  Partial vaccination means very little against omicron.  And yes, I think a third of Americans not fully vaccinated is still ridiculously high.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #889 on: January 30, 2022, 10:30:53 AM »
Fully vaccinated means 1 dose J&J or 2 dose mRNA.  I’m sure more have been partially vaccinated, like my uncle who received a first dose back when he became eligible, but then fell prey to misinformation and refused to get his second dose, also convincing my parents and another sibling to not get vaccinated.  I do wonder how many of those with one dose will never get fully vaccinated.  Partial vaccination means very little against omicron.  And yes, I think a third of Americans not fully vaccinated is still ridiculously high.

Technically I'm a one dose person. I got one dose in Oklahoma and one in Arkansas. Thus in both states I'm considered partially vaccinated. My kids will likely never get vaccinated, but they already had and recovered from Omicron. The data suggests that even getting one dose provides robust protection against severe disease. It may not provide as much protection against contracting the virus (although that doesn't seem to matter with Omicron), but most of the benefit against severe sickness is simply having your immune system primed for the virus and one dose does that.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #890 on: January 30, 2022, 12:31:46 PM »

Technically I'm a one dose person. I got one dose in Oklahoma and one in Arkansas. Thus in both states I'm considered partially vaccinated. My kids will likely never get vaccinated, but they already had and recovered from Omicron. The data suggests that even getting one dose provides robust protection against severe disease. It may not provide as much protection against contracting the virus (although that doesn't seem to matter with Omicron), but most of the benefit against severe sickness is simply having your immune system primed for the virus and one dose does that.

Curious why you would decide to not vaccinate your kids. Even if contracting Covid once does provide some protection, our understanding is that getting vaccinated improves resistance in the future.  Are you worried about side effects from the vaccine?

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #891 on: January 30, 2022, 01:19:34 PM »
^Oh, there are still plenty, but at the rate of infections in the US this past month, there won't be for long here. Other countries that had more zealous lockdowns likely have the majority fo the population uninfected (although, to be fair, most of the people in those countries are now vaccinated.)

Meanwhile, 2300 people died from COVID in the US yesterday. Maybe it's just me, but that seems like a lot of people dying in a single day.

2300 does seem like a lot, until you realize that about 8000 people/day died in 2019, before the pandemic started. Apparently, total deaths for 2020 and 2021 were up by about 1200/day, overall.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #892 on: January 30, 2022, 01:21:44 PM »


Meanwhile, 2300 people died from COVID in the US yesterday. Maybe it's just me, but that seems like a lot of people dying in a single day.

If 19% or so are vaccinated that's 400 vaccinated folks, or 4x the number of people die in an auto accident every day.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #893 on: January 30, 2022, 01:57:18 PM »
^Oh, there are still plenty, but at the rate of infections in the US this past month, there won't be for long here. Other countries that had more zealous lockdowns likely have the majority fo the population uninfected (although, to be fair, most of the people in those countries are now vaccinated.)

Meanwhile, 2300 people died from COVID in the US yesterday. Maybe it's just me, but that seems like a lot of people dying in a single day.

2300 does seem like a lot, until you realize that about 8000 people/day died in 2019, before the pandemic started. Apparently, total deaths for 2020 and 2021 were up by about 1200/day, overall.

Holy cow.  If that’s even remotely accurate that’s a 15% increase in death for two straight years.

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #894 on: January 30, 2022, 04:12:35 PM »
Johns Hopkins University has been gathering the reported stats and tracking on their global map since the pandemic began. You can just google "Johns Hopkins COVID map" and pull it up. Here's a short video they made this week:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLhNIzLLpJI

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #895 on: January 31, 2022, 02:12:18 AM »


Holy cow.  If that’s even remotely accurate that’s a 15% increase in death for two straight years.

Well Covid-19 deaths in 2021 were about 440,000 that's 1,205 per day right there. What's remarkable is how death rates spike in so many other things,
Suicide, murders, and drug overdose were all up 10-25% in the last couple of years. I guess it is understandable people react to stress.  But what's crazy is things that you'd think would go down, in some cases went up. Take traffic fatalities they have been on a long slow decline for decades, despite more cars, and more miles. In 2019 there was about 34,000 deads, in 2021 they topped 42,000. This doesn't make sense, lots of people still worked from home, travel, tourism while increased from 2020, were still sharply below 2019 levels.  Perhaps more door dash delivery or something resulted in more death,or more road rage??

startingsmall

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #896 on: January 31, 2022, 06:04:39 AM »
Just read this interesting fact this morning:

"Thanks to immunity, treatment, and an intrinsically less severe Omicron, the case fatality rate (CFR) continues to decline in the Untied States and across the globe. We’re seeing a similar pattern in infection fatality rate (IFR— which takes into account asymptomatic and non-reporting) in the U.K. But, as seen in the second graph below, IFR is still about two times higher than the flu."  The author (an epidemiologist) goes on to say that the IFR is likely twice as high in the U.S., because we have less immunity... but that still means that COVID is only 4x as lethal as the flu in the U.S.

From https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affairs-jan-31?fbclid=IwAR1LAQEECV1Uq2KtY4sYPQ3AF9HSaCWkxJ66fUWQjXcSiibVTQeNnzYFw6E

I found that interesting/surprising.

mizzourah2006

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #897 on: January 31, 2022, 06:36:05 AM »

Technically I'm a one dose person. I got one dose in Oklahoma and one in Arkansas. Thus in both states I'm considered partially vaccinated. My kids will likely never get vaccinated, but they already had and recovered from Omicron. The data suggests that even getting one dose provides robust protection against severe disease. It may not provide as much protection against contracting the virus (although that doesn't seem to matter with Omicron), but most of the benefit against severe sickness is simply having your immune system primed for the virus and one dose does that.

Curious why you would decide to not vaccinate your kids. Even if contracting Covid once does provide some protection, our understanding is that getting vaccinated improves resistance in the future.  Are you worried about side effects from the vaccine?

Most of the studies I've seen say that there isn't much of a difference between natural and vaccinated for healthy younger people. For older adults and vulnerable populations of course everything helps, which is why they are offering boosters and older people should take them. If they come out with data suggesting that the vaccine somehow helps healthy 6 year olds with t-cell and b-cell immunity I reserve the right to change my mind. Perhaps we'll get to new strains of the virus where being vaccinated prevents infection and then I'll consider it. I'm not completely against them getting vaccinated, I just don't see any benefit. So sure I could just go get it for them, but then that's like forcing your kid to get sick for 24 hours for no real benefit. Would you give your kid a 24 hour bug just because? Also, if I do decide to get them the vaccine I'd follow the European standards of one dose only.


It would be interesting to see what % of people 18+ have received no vaccine and also have not gotten Covid at this point (I.e. true Sars-cov-2 virgins). I feel like people are creating a fictional "unvaccinated" enemy at this point.

Read the thread - I've posted hospital statistics multiple times throughout.

75% of hospitalized people are unvaccinated. I suppose it's possible that those people have all lied about their vaccination status, but that seems unlikely.

I have no idea whether or not those people have had covid before, as the hospital systems I keep up with don't post that information.

I'm not denying that the unvaccinated are a major part of the hospitalization, my main point is they are a tiny fraction of the US population. We're talking about less than 15% of the population of those over 30. So really when we are whining about all the unvaccinated people we're whining about kids 20 and younger the group that has been largely untouched by this pandemic from a severe disease and death perspective.

I do find it interesting that the unvaccinated still make up 75% of all hospitalizations (including with and from covid) at this point though. If you think about it's kind of a crazy anomaly. Even if you look at the data for fully vaccinated 40+ you're likely looking at ~80% fully vaccinated. So, 80% of people 40+ in the US are fully vaccinated and ~75% of people 25+ are fully vaccinated and yet those ~25% still account for 75% of all hospitalizations? That's actually pretty impressive. Or am I reading that wrong and the 75% figure you're quoting is specifically for Covid related treatments? That would make way more sense, but I was under the impression they weren't really distinguishing between hospitalized from and with covid in almost all cases.

jrhampt

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #898 on: January 31, 2022, 07:13:10 AM »
It would be interesting to see what % of people 18+ have received no vaccine and also have not gotten Covid at this point (I.e. true Sars-cov-2 virgins). I feel like people are creating a fictional "unvaccinated" enemy at this point.

Read the thread - I've posted hospital statistics multiple times throughout.

75% of hospitalized people are unvaccinated. I suppose it's possible that those people have all lied about their vaccination status, but that seems unlikely.

I have no idea whether or not those people have had covid before, as the hospital systems I keep up with don't post that information.

I'm not denying that the unvaccinated are a major part of the hospitalization, my main point is they are a tiny fraction of the US population. We're talking about less than 15% of the population of those over 30. So really when we are whining about all the unvaccinated people we're whining about kids 20 and younger the group that has been largely untouched by this pandemic from a severe disease and death perspective.

I do find it interesting that the unvaccinated still make up 75% of all hospitalizations (including with and from covid) at this point though. If you think about it's kind of a crazy anomaly. Even if you look at the data for fully vaccinated 40+ you're likely looking at ~80% fully vaccinated. So, 80% of people 40+ in the US are fully vaccinated and ~75% of people 25+ are fully vaccinated and yet those ~25% still account for 75% of all hospitalizations? That's actually pretty impressive. Or am I reading that wrong and the 75% figure you're quoting is specifically for Covid related treatments? That would make way more sense, but I was under the impression they weren't really distinguishing between hospitalized from and with covid in almost all cases.

This is exactly why people get so irritated with the unvaccinated.  They are a minority of the population yet they are absolutely wrecking our medical system out of sheer stupidity/stubbornness at this point.  The vaccines are very effective at keeping people out of the hospital.  These statistics above illustrate that point.  This is why medical professionals have been blue in the face begging people to get vaccinated.

GuitarStv

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Re: Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"
« Reply #899 on: January 31, 2022, 07:24:19 AM »


Holy cow.  If that’s even remotely accurate that’s a 15% increase in death for two straight years.

Well Covid-19 deaths in 2021 were about 440,000 that's 1,205 per day right there. What's remarkable is how death rates spike in so many other things,
Suicide, murders, and drug overdose were all up 10-25% in the last couple of years. I guess it is understandable people react to stress.  But what's crazy is things that you'd think would go down, in some cases went up. Take traffic fatalities they have been on a long slow decline for decades, despite more cars, and more miles. In 2019 there was about 34,000 deads, in 2021 they topped 42,000. This doesn't make sense, lots of people still worked from home, travel, tourism while increased from 2020, were still sharply below 2019 levels.  Perhaps more door dash delivery or something resulted in more death,or more road rage??

A great many people I knew (particularly retirees) drove a ton more than usual during the pandemic - particularly during our 'lockdowns'.  At one point I pretty much stopped going for bike rides during the week because there was so much more traffic than usual along the quiet country roads that I take.  It seemed like people were looking for something to do, and driving around in a car counts as something I guess.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!