The hardest part of this conversation is how fundamentally a guaranteed minimum restructures society. If you toss in a few other libertarian notions like a VAT or flat tax and a decriminalization of drug possession of not outright legalization you get some really big changes that significantly alter the fabric of our government and society. The analysis if impact of such programs easily strays into utopian thinking that has a rosy picture at the far end of time, but makes no account for the details of how to get there or how to deal with unforeseen winners and losers. I think the idea of a basic minimum is enticing, but I need to see more serious thought about the consequences.
If the Basic Minimum is enacted and all the now obsolete agencies shut down, how do you avoid alterations that can harm the basic program such as extra funds for one group or the other, qualifying hurdles that necessitate bureaucracy or political poison pills designed to reduce program effectiveness and make it unpopular. These are all common tactics of opposition to or exploitation of a law. Are we really going to assume Congress will be on its best behavior?
What is the economic impact of the above scenario? If someone loses their 50k a year state job overseeing a Federal grant and gets it replaced with 18k a year in guaranteed income, what does that do to a person's purchasing habits? Extend the personal impact out across several thousand local, state and federal employees affected and how does the economy and job market absorb this level of shock. All prior experiments happened inside a vacuum, while services were replaced for sample populations with the basic income, the offices that serve all those outside the sample group remained open so there are no data points addressing the systemic change inherent to a Basic Minimum. Where will tens of thousands of unemployed, skilled white collar workers go?
How is it really being paid for in the long run? Best estimates of cost are always in the short term and rely on a number of broad assumptions. Building off of above, if my income drops by 30k a year for even a short time I'm not paying nearly as much in income, payroll or social security taxes anymore. Even in the case of a VAT, if my income drops by 30k, I'm not buying nearly as much. I'm just doing the minimum to get by until I can find work in a suddenly very difficult market.
I need answers that don't wander into utopian pipe dreams of, "Everyone will rediscover their creative potential and do things that currently have no market demand and cannot be specified at all, but will be super important and everyone will be happy."
