What do you think of this calculator?

[EconDiva]

https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/retirement/retirement-calculator.aspx

On one hand, upon discovering this calculator, I really liked it because I needed one that blatantly displayed what I need to have saved in "future dollars" for retirement which this does.

However, my question is, am I missing where they mention what the withdrawal rate is in retirement? If I understand correctly, going by the Trinity study, most would use a "starting" 4% SWR. In plugging in different scenarios (but all with a 30 year retirement span) using this calculator, I don't seem to be seeing a 4% "starting" SWR (it seems to start with between 5 to almost 7% in the scenarios I have been using unless I am missing something)...

[dandarc]

If you can get that return like clockwork you can indeed draw more. Also takes you down to zero at the end of the retirement term, which may or may not be what you want.

So, not really that useful - doesn't account for sequence of return risk at all. Nothing left over for longevity risk either.

[EconDiva]

If you can get that return like clockwork you can indeed draw more. Also takes you down to zero at the end of the retirement term, which may or may not be what you want.

So, not really that useful - doesn't account for sequence of return risk at all. Nothing left over for longevity risk either.

What's the consensus these days on a best calculator to use for predicting savings needed in retirement considering current savings/expenses and anticipated inflation/yield?

[dandarc]

I have my own spreadsheet. All it does now is this:

Add up what I have in retirement investments today.

Displays monthly withdraw that total will support at 3%, 4%, and 5%.

Does our monthly spend fall in that range? No. Could it? Yes - relatively easily at 5%, would be a big change, but just this side of do-able at 3%. So I feel like we are "lean FI" right now, and building towards a much fatter FI.

Doesn't really answer your question though. I do still keep the attached calculator on my spreadsheet (came up with this way back in 2008 or something - note my terminology). After actually reading people who have thought this out better than me, I go with the above approach.

[mathlete]

I also do my own calculations, but this one seems to work reasonably well.

The withdraw isn't a fixed rate in the calculator. It's whatever you put as your annual income required * (1+inflation rate)^(years til retirement).

Then, once the calculator has this number, it figures out how much money you need at retirement to withdraw that amount for X years, where X is the (Number of years required after retirement) input.

[Monkey Uncle]

If you can get that return like clockwork you can indeed draw more. Also takes you down to zero at the end of the retirement term, which may or may not be what you want.

So, not really that useful - doesn't account for sequence of return risk at all. Nothing left over for longevity risk either.

What's the consensus these days on a best calculator to use for predicting savings needed in retirement considering current savings/expenses and anticipated inflation/yield?

Not sure if a consensus exists, but I prefer cFiresim (www.cfiresim.com).  It's detailed enough to account for various inputs beyond your invested assets (SS, pension, extra spending, etc.), but it's also simple enough to run pretty quickly.  Most importantly, it uses actual historical financial market data to account for sequence of return risk.  In my opinion, any calculator that doesn't account for SORR is worthless.

[tipster350]

This was created by an MMM member (sorry, I do not recall who), and it is my favorite for my needs

https://engaging-data.com/fire-calculator/

[robartsd]

https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/retirement/retirement-calculator.aspx

On one hand, upon discovering this calculator, I really liked it because I needed one that blatantly displayed what I need to have saved in "future dollars" for retirement which this does.

However, my question is, am I missing where they mention what the withdrawal rate is in retirement? If I understand correctly, going by the Trinity study, most would use a "starting" 4% SWR. In plugging in different scenarios (but all with a 30 year retirement span) using this calculator, I don't seem to be seeing a 4% "starting" SWR (it seems to start with between 5 to almost 7% in the scenarios I have been using unless I am missing something)...

It's not that hard to do the math to adjust current dollars to future dollars: future dollars = current dollars * (1 + inflation rate) ^ number of years. Suppose you plan to spend 40,000 in current dollars, assume 2% annual inflation, and expect to retire in 10 years: 40,000 * 1.02 ^ 10 = 48,760 spending rate in future dollars. Using a 4% SWR with this spending: 48,760 / .04 = 1,219,000 portfolio needed in future dollars. You could also work it as: 40,000 / .04 = 1,000,000 portfolio needed in current dollars; 1,0000,000 * 1.02 ^ 10 = 1,219,000 portfolio needed in future dollars.

[TomTX]

My absolute favorite is "Rich, broke or dead" - because it really highlights the true risk of OMY syndrome.

https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

You won't run out of money if you're dead.

A few items:

I drop the investment expenses to 0.1% and crank up the stock portion, as this is more applicable for me.

Some features are not intuitive - for multiple income streams, you separate by a semicolon. Discussion/development thread here:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/rich-broke-or-dead-visualizing-probabilities-of-outcomes-in-early-retirement/

[itchyfeet]

I do like that calculator but the thought that 10% of my friends who are my age will be dead within 10 years..... the 1 in 10 could be me.... sobering...

[TomTX]

I do like that calculator but the thought that 10% of my friends who are my age will be dead within 10 years..... the 1 in 10 could be me.... sobering...

Risk of OMY syndrome.