Author Topic: What comes after the ACA?  (Read 349842 times)

lbmustache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 747
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3550 on: September 26, 2017, 10:43:00 AM »
Maybe the sick feeling I have right now goes back to the election when everybody and his dog was predicting a Hilary win.. If the giant Orangutan can get elected then passing this POS so called healthcare reform should be a cake walk by comparison.. How many people do they have to bribe after all?

I agree but this has already failed multiple times. McCain and Collins are a no - I can't imagine they'd flip after putting statements out. I don't trust Paul, Cruz (or Lee). Not sure where MurKowski stands at the moment. They just need one more to sink this. 

OurTown

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 450
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3551 on: September 26, 2017, 12:32:32 PM »
Looks like McConnell just pulled it.  It's dead, Jim.

tyort1

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1624
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3552 on: September 26, 2017, 12:37:38 PM »
I have a great idea!  Maybe people should vote in accordance with their own economic interests.

Who do you mean by "people" here? The GOP senators are voting (or would be) according to their economic interests. Senators and representatives live and die by their donors in these tempestuous post-Citizens United days. Their donors want ACA repealed and are threatening to withhold funds if they don't get it.

Very true!  If you are wondering how they can focus on Obamacare repeal when less than 20% of the voters want that, and even the insurance industry and the medical community are against it, here's your answer: 

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16339336/graham-cassidy-republican-donors
Frugalite in training.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3553 on: September 26, 2017, 12:42:15 PM »
In another bit of irony, DJT is calling out "so-called republicans" like John McCain for the bill's failure.
This coming from the guy who was a registered democrat as recently as 2009 , and who has eschewed GOP orthodoxy.
How the hell can he claim to be 'more republican' than individuals who have spent two decades+ under the GOP tent?
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

dividendman

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 997
  • Age: 35
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3554 on: September 26, 2017, 01:07:39 PM »
In another bit of irony, DJT is calling out "so-called republicans" like John McCain for the bill's failure.
This coming from the guy who was a registered democrat as recently as 2009 , and who has eschewed GOP orthodoxy.
How the hell can he claim to be 'more republican' than individuals who have spent two decades+ under the GOP tent?

You obviously haven't gotten over the fact that Donald Trump doesn't need any logic or facts for any statements he makes.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3555 on: September 26, 2017, 02:30:45 PM »
Interesting development which could influence future ACA repeal/replace bills:
Bob Corker (R-TN) is retiring and will not seek re-election.

Corker's seat was considered a highly safe for the GOP.  Now, suddenly, it's far less safe as the GOP loses the power of the incumbency.
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5413
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3556 on: September 26, 2017, 02:39:06 PM »
Interesting development which could influence future ACA repeal/replace bills:
Bob Corker (R-TN) is retiring and will not seek re-election.

Corker's seat was considered a highly safe for the GOP.  Now, suddenly, it's far less safe as the GOP loses the power of the incumbency.

Corker's seat, like the one in Alabama, will either go to another party loyal republican, or to a right wing extremist ala Ted Cruz.  There is essentially no chance of this retirement swinging the balance of power in the Senate, other than to maybe undermine the GOP voting block with another tea partier.

But that's just my opinion, and I've been wrong before.  Including several times in this very thread.

maizeman

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1391
  • Location: The World of Tomorrow
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3557 on: September 26, 2017, 03:02:14 PM »
It think it would probably take the GOP nominating someone the equivalent of Christine "I am NOT a witch" O'Donnell to put the Tennessee seat in play. To me the bigger impact of republicans in safe seats announcing their retirement is that it makes them immune to the threat of primary challenges from the right, so they're more likely to vote the interests of their constituents from now until they bow out instead of focusing on the small slide of the electorate that votes in primaries.

It's going to be essentially impossible for the Dems to take back the senate before 2020. They need +3 to to take control since Pence is the tie breaker. In the 2018 election they look like they have a reasonable shot at one seat in NV. If Jeff Flake loses his primary to someone to the right they might have some kind of a shot at a second seat in AZ. But to get the third seat they'd need to win a senate election in Utah, Nebraska, Wyoming, Texas, Mississippi or Tennessee. Basically all the winnable senate seats for the Dems in this set of races were already won in 2012 when Obama got reelected. The 2020 map (last up for election in a midterm year in 2014 with low democratic turnout) and 2022 map (Hillary Clinton dragged down a lot of democratic senate nominees in winnable states) both have a lot more potentially winnable races.
"It’s a selective retirement," Richard explained, "a retirement from boring s**t."

My source code & my journal

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3558 on: September 26, 2017, 03:50:13 PM »
Interesting development which could influence future ACA repeal/replace bills:
Bob Corker (R-TN) is retiring and will not seek re-election.

Corker's seat was considered a highly safe for the GOP.  Now, suddenly, it's far less safe as the GOP loses the power of the incumbency.

Corker's seat, like the one in Alabama, will either go to another party loyal republican, or to a right wing extremist ala Ted Cruz.  There is essentially no chance of this retirement swinging the balance of power in the Senate, other than to maybe undermine the GOP voting block with another tea partier.

But that's just my opinion, and I've been wrong before.  Including several times in this very thread.
Maybe, maybe not.  Tennessee was not quite as 'red' in 2016 as Alabama.  It's possible that some extreme-right, Bannon approved whack-job steps into the ring and wins the primary, in which case I think a moderate Dem has a shot as long as s/he avoids dead girls or live boys.

If nothing else there will be a lot of money spent on a race that the GOP was planning on ignoring.

More to the point, I wonder if more members of the GOP will announce that they've had enough and won't run for re-election. More than a few members of congress have mentioned that lately, it's not fun anymore. Who can blame them when you get public beat-downs from the president, a-la Bob Corker.
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

lbmustache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 747
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3559 on: September 27, 2017, 11:12:03 AM »
Interesting development which could influence future ACA repeal/replace bills:
Bob Corker (R-TN) is retiring and will not seek re-election.

Corker's seat was considered a highly safe for the GOP.  Now, suddenly, it's far less safe as the GOP loses the power of the incumbency.

Corker's seat, like the one in Alabama, will either go to another party loyal republican, or to a right wing extremist ala Ted Cruz.  There is essentially no chance of this retirement swinging the balance of power in the Senate, other than to maybe undermine the GOP voting block with another tea partier.

But that's just my opinion, and I've been wrong before.  Including several times in this very thread.
Maybe, maybe not.  Tennessee was not quite as 'red' in 2016 as Alabama.  It's possible that some extreme-right, Bannon approved whack-job steps into the ring and wins the primary, in which case I think a moderate Dem has a shot as long as s/he avoids dead girls or live boys.

If nothing else there will be a lot of money spent on a race that the GOP was planning on ignoring.

More to the point, I wonder if more members of the GOP will announce that they've had enough and won't run for re-election. More than a few members of congress have mentioned that lately, it's not fun anymore. Who can blame them when you get public beat-downs from the president, a-la Bob Corker.

I saw some echoes of this somewhere else too - maybe the Washington Post article on Moore's win? - that several members are strongly considering retirement in these times. Unfortunate to some degree, I'd rather have a "normal" Republican rather than some Bannon-endorsed hard-right/alt-right looney.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3560 on: September 27, 2017, 11:18:45 AM »
I saw some echoes of this somewhere else too - maybe the Washington Post article on Moore's win? - that several members are strongly considering retirement in these times. Unfortunate to some degree, I'd rather have a "normal" Republican rather than some Bannon-endorsed hard-right/alt-right looney.
I agree. Moore's win is nothing short of shocking to me, and it distresses me that someone with his views could ever rise to the role of US senator. I think many are voting for extreme candidates like him as a middle finger to the GOP, but what their longer-term impacts will be are less clear.
Like Cruz and Paul, I don't see Moore playing nicely with the more mainstream GOP.  Perhaps it will further prevent them from enacting any legislation at all.  Or conversely, he might actually get his way (or at least concessions), and pass legislation in his biblical view.
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1258
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3561 on: September 27, 2017, 02:37:08 PM »
Who opened the insane asylum ?

dividendman

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 997
  • Age: 35
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3562 on: September 27, 2017, 10:39:22 PM »
I saw some echoes of this somewhere else too - maybe the Washington Post article on Moore's win? - that several members are strongly considering retirement in these times. Unfortunate to some degree, I'd rather have a "normal" Republican rather than some Bannon-endorsed hard-right/alt-right looney.
I agree. Moore's win is nothing short of shocking to me, and it distresses me that someone with his views could ever rise to the role of US senator. I think many are voting for extreme candidates like him as a middle finger to the GOP, but what their longer-term impacts will be are less clear.
Like Cruz and Paul, I don't see Moore playing nicely with the more mainstream GOP.  Perhaps it will further prevent them from enacting any legislation at all.  Or conversely, he might actually get his way (or at least concessions), and pass legislation in his biblical view.

Moore has not risen to the role of US senator, the election isn't until december.

Monkey Uncle

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 995
  • Location: West-by-god-Virginia
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3563 on: September 28, 2017, 04:48:10 AM »
I saw some echoes of this somewhere else too - maybe the Washington Post article on Moore's win? - that several members are strongly considering retirement in these times. Unfortunate to some degree, I'd rather have a "normal" Republican rather than some Bannon-endorsed hard-right/alt-right looney.
I agree. Moore's win is nothing short of shocking to me, and it distresses me that someone with his views could ever rise to the role of US senator. I think many are voting for extreme candidates like him as a middle finger to the GOP, but what their longer-term impacts will be are less clear.
Like Cruz and Paul, I don't see Moore playing nicely with the more mainstream GOP.  Perhaps it will further prevent them from enacting any legislation at all.  Or conversely, he might actually get his way (or at least concessions), and pass legislation in his biblical view.

I'm shocked that you're shocked that a racist, bible-thumping, tea party nutcase won a Republican primary in Alabama. ;)

It will be interesting to see if the Democrats put any resources into the general election.  Seems like it might be worthwhile.  At least they could mount a "get out the vote" campaign among traditional Democratic constituencies.  Alabama's population is about 25% African-American; presumably pretty much all of those people would vote for Moore's opponent.  Perhaps many people who are still registered as Democrats but typically vote Republican in national elections might think twice before voting for Moore.
"Take this job and shove it" - David Allan Coe

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3564 on: September 28, 2017, 05:50:41 AM »
I saw some echoes of this somewhere else too - maybe the Washington Post article on Moore's win? - that several members are strongly considering retirement in these times. Unfortunate to some degree, I'd rather have a "normal" Republican rather than some Bannon-endorsed hard-right/alt-right looney.
I agree. Moore's win is nothing short of shocking to me, and it distresses me that someone with his views could ever rise to the role of US senator. I think many are voting for extreme candidates like him as a middle finger to the GOP, but what their longer-term impacts will be are less clear.
Like Cruz and Paul, I don't see Moore playing nicely with the more mainstream GOP.  Perhaps it will further prevent them from enacting any legislation at all.  Or conversely, he might actually get his way (or at least concessions), and pass legislation in his biblical view.

Moore has not risen to the role of US senator, the election isn't until december.

True.  Which is why I was careful to say "could rise to the role"...  I was expressing shock and dismay that this is the republican candidate in a deeply red state.
it could have been worded a bit more clearly though.

Quote
It will be interesting to see if the Democrats put any resources into the general election.  Seems like it might be worthwhile.  At least they could mount a "get out the vote" campaign among traditional Democratic constituencies.  Alabama's population is about 25% African-American; presumably pretty much all of those people would vote for Moore's opponent.  Perhaps many people who are still registered as Democrats but typically vote Republican in national elections might think twice before voting for Moore.
You'd better believe that this is going to become another multi-$ special election with national money pouring in on both sides. Even if its a longshot, the Dems will use this election to highlight all the things they think is wrong with this administration and this senate.  The fact that it's Moore, a fireband nut-job religious whacko who is anti-gay rights, anti-Muslim, anti-seperation of church and state plays right into their hands. They can use this election to frame the entire GOP as regressive, intolerant bigots.
Even if the Dems lose (and they probably will) the balance in the Senate will remain unchanged, yet the public image will be of the GOP stalwarts defending such a man. In contrast, all the Dems have to do present a candidate who seems a reasonable centrist and who doesn't get tripped up by scandals (and it's taking larger and larger scandals to 'move the needle' since DJT announced his candidacy).
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

GuitarStv

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9112
  • Age: 36
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3565 on: September 28, 2017, 07:56:47 AM »
I saw some echoes of this somewhere else too - maybe the Washington Post article on Moore's win? - that several members are strongly considering retirement in these times. Unfortunate to some degree, I'd rather have a "normal" Republican rather than some Bannon-endorsed hard-right/alt-right looney.
I agree. Moore's win is nothing short of shocking to me, and it distresses me that someone with his views could ever rise to the role of US senator. I think many are voting for extreme candidates like him as a middle finger to the GOP, but what their longer-term impacts will be are less clear.
Like Cruz and Paul, I don't see Moore playing nicely with the more mainstream GOP.  Perhaps it will further prevent them from enacting any legislation at all.  Or conversely, he might actually get his way (or at least concessions), and pass legislation in his biblical view.

I'm shocked that you're shocked that a racist, bible-thumping, tea party nutcase won a Republican primary in Alabama. ;)

It will be interesting to see if the Democrats put any resources into the general election.  Seems like it might be worthwhile.  At least they could mount a "get out the vote" campaign among traditional Democratic constituencies.  Alabama's population is about 25% African-American; presumably pretty much all of those people would vote for Moore's opponent.  Perhaps many people who are still registered as Democrats but typically vote Republican in national elections might think twice before voting for Moore.

https://thinkprogress.org/alabama-found-guilty-of-racial-gerrymandering-e42f48e19c40/

The GOP has a long standing solution for the black problem in Alabama.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5413
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3566 on: September 28, 2017, 08:39:27 AM »
the Dems will use this election to highlight all the things they think is wrong with this administration and this senate.  The fact that it's Moore, a fireband nut-job religious whacko who is anti-gay rights, anti-Muslim, anti-seperation of church and state plays right into their hands. They can use this election to frame the entire GOP as regressive, intolerant bigots.

It won't matter.  The congressional GOP is chock full of regressive intolerant bigots.  The regressive intolerant bigots won a 2010 wave election that put the tea party in power, and it's been all down hill from there.  I don't think they'll have any qualms at all about defending Moore.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3567 on: September 28, 2017, 08:56:57 AM »
the Dems will use this election to highlight all the things they think is wrong with this administration and this senate.  The fact that it's Moore, a fireband nut-job religious whacko who is anti-gay rights, anti-Muslim, anti-seperation of church and state plays right into their hands. They can use this election to frame the entire GOP as regressive, intolerant bigots.

It won't matter.  The congressional GOP is chock full of regressive intolerant bigots.  The regressive intolerant bigots won a 2010 wave election that put the tea party in power, and it's been all down hill from there.  I don't think they'll have any qualms at all about defending Moore.

I wasn't referring to the congressional GOP and their core base.  Trump once said he could shoot someone in Times Square and he wouldn't lose any voters - at the time it was seen as hyperbole but it seems his core base won't leave regardless.
I'm talking about the 'independent' voters that backed DJT over HRC by four points as well as the hoards of citizens just coming of age and forming their political identity. These people are going to be treated to months of commentary Moore's regressive and regressive stances on law, and top GOP figures will be hugging and shaking his hand.

Seriously, the Dems could not have asked for a better example of racial, gender and religious intolerance. All at a time when our country is steadily becoming less white, less evengelical and more accepting of non-heterosexual individuals.

I'm still appalled and slightly frightened at the prospect of such an extremest in the US Senate, but for the GOP: you reap what you sow.
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

Exflyboy

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4429
  • Age: 56
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3568 on: September 28, 2017, 09:10:59 AM »
So a repeal only bill comes back next year.. thats when they can go back to passing with just 50 votes.. Is that correct??

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3569 on: September 28, 2017, 09:37:20 AM »
So a repeal only bill comes back next year.. thats when they can go back to passing with just 50 votes.. Is that correct??
not quite.
under normal Senatorial procedures they need 60 votes (a "super majority") to end debate (the filibuster) and vote yes/no on the measure.  Up until Sept 30th they could have used the reconciliation process IF the bill does not add to the deficit because it would be viewed (bizarrely) as just a change outlays.  That option expires with the end of the fiscal year (Sept 30th)

In theory they could try to use reconciliation *again* if there is another continuing resolution after December for FY2018 and it meets all the aforementioned conditions under reconciliation (e.g. not adding to the deficit).   But that would face the same damn problems the last 3 bills have faced; freedom caucus members who won't vote for anything but a complete repeal on one end, 'moderate' GOPers who aren't willing to sell their state down the river and a united Dem front that ensures at least 48 "no"s.

...at least, that's how I understand it.  Someone please correct me if I've made a mistake somewhere.
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5413
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3570 on: September 28, 2017, 09:38:44 AM »
So a repeal only bill comes back next year.. thats when they can go back to passing with just 50 votes.. Is that correct??

It could, but they want to use next year's budget reconciliation bill to shoehorn tax "reform" through congress without a majority.  That may be even more unpopular than was gutting healthcare, so the plan is to focus on a single topic at a time.

I don't think they'll have much appetite to add anchovies to their shit sandwich.  The ACA should remain law until after the midterms, though the president can continue to sabotage the implementation by cutting subsidies, refusing to help people enroll, and sowing uncertainty in the market by continuing to threaten insurers.

farmecologist

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 242
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3571 on: September 28, 2017, 10:04:48 AM »

Honestly..this thing will never be truly 'dead' until the democrats take the house, senate, or president.   Any one of those three will pretty much put an end to it.  And any seats the dems can pick up in the senate will be very important.

I also saw that trump is willing to sign an executive order regarding health care.   Seems like he is not willing to give up on it either.   Looks to me like they are in 'death by 1000 cuts' mode now.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3572 on: September 28, 2017, 11:08:18 AM »

Honestly..this thing will never be truly 'dead' until the democrats take the house, senate, or president.   Any one of those three will pretty much put an end to it.  And any seats the dems can pick up in the senate will be very important.
Or if another half-dozen red states decide to throw in the towel and expand medicare.
but yeah... they'll keep rattling this ghost because they've built their reputations on repeal and replace.  Each time though I think their excuses ring a little more hollow, and more centrists see the cost of voting 'no' to be a bit less extreme.  I'm not sure Trump's threats carry the fear within the GOP they did just a few months ago.

I also saw that trump is willing to sign an executive order regarding health care.   Seems like he is not willing to give up on it either.   Looks to me like they are in 'death by 1000 cuts' mode now.
Yeah, this is what worries me the most.  Since they can't repeal/replace now, their strategy (which some have been very open about) is to sabbotage the law.  The calculus seems to be that the more it stumbles the lower public opinion of the ACA will go.  The risk is they hope/believe/prey that they can somehow escape all blame for actually causing the said collapse.

It will be curious to see whether the GOP continues to sabbotage more moderate members efforts at stabilizing and bolstering the ACA, as they did last week when they abruptly shelved one such effort.
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

RedmondStash

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 573
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3573 on: September 28, 2017, 11:45:57 AM »
I also saw that trump is willing to sign an executive order regarding health care.   Seems like he is not willing to give up on it either.   Looks to me like they are in 'death by 1000 cuts' mode now.
Yeah, this is what worries me the most.

I saw that too. But -- how much power does Trump have with presidential executive orders? What can he actually do? I know he thinks he can do anything, but legally, there have to be limits, or else it would be the president and not Congress creating legislation.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3574 on: September 28, 2017, 12:38:09 PM »
I also saw that trump is willing to sign an executive order regarding health care.   Seems like he is not willing to give up on it either.   Looks to me like they are in 'death by 1000 cuts' mode now.
Yeah, this is what worries me the most.

I saw that too. But -- how much power does Trump have with presidential executive orders? What can he actually do? I know he thinks he can do anything, but legally, there have to be limits, or else it would be the president and not Congress creating legislation.
Not just Trump, but the death by 1,000 cuts.

AS for what Trump can accomplish by EO - The ACA is largely implemented and overseen by the Depertment of Health and Human services (HHS). As a cabinet-level executive branch Trump nominated its secretary, Tom Price.  He can essentially direct HSS to reduce its staff and support for the marketplaces and all other aspects of the ACA.  Not unlike how the EPA can stop or reduce its enforcement of environmental infractions under Scott Pruit.
Individual state governors can further muck up the process.  It's like owning a restaurant you want to fail.  Sure you may be required to keep it open, but if the service and reliability suck enough people will get pretty pissed off.  Question is - will the GOP get blamed or Obama?  Given the sarcastic refrain of "Thanks Obama!" for literally everything I worry this may drop the popularity of the ACA more than it drops the already low favorability of the GOP
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5413
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3575 on: September 28, 2017, 12:51:05 PM »
I worry this may drop the popularity of the ACA more than it drops the already low favorability of the GOP

That may well be the long term game plan.  Make government suck so much that they fulfill their own prophesy about how much government sucks.  Drag down public support for all forms of government, since their party reputation is already garbage and they gain relative position by dragging down everyone else.

Is anyone else surprised that our ruling party appears to be actively undermining the government they control?

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3576 on: September 28, 2017, 03:42:51 PM »

Is anyone else surprised that our ruling party appears to be actively undermining the government they control?

Reminds me of a bad joke about a right-wing anti-federalist running for the US Senate
"yes sir, congress is a bunch of corrupt, no good, ineffective bureaucrats, and if you elect me to the US Senate I will show you just how corrupt, ineffective and just plain bad they can be!"
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

DarkandStormy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 485
  • Age: 28
  • Location: Midwest, USA
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3577 on: September 29, 2017, 07:08:00 AM »
GOP yesterday: We just cannot afford to ensure every American has health care.

GOP today: Here's a $2 trillion tax cut for rich people.
The Chase Trifecta:
Earn 50,000 Ultimate Rewards points with Chase Sapphire Preferred - $4k spend in 3 months.
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/6/2MOVOLZCEJ
Earn a $150 bonus with Chase Freedom Unlimited - only $500 spend needed in 3 months.
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/18/ENYF0FTS66
Earn a $150 bonus with Chase Freedom - only $500 spend needed in 3 months.
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/2/DBOP9XI9XT

Southwest Cards - Earn 40k miles for $2k spend in 3 months.
Premier -
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/224/JY2BMSDZJ2
Plus -
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/223/F3ZW8H140N

Recommended Cell Service - Google's Project Fi: https://g.co/fi/r/THK0WX

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3578 on: September 29, 2017, 07:27:28 AM »
GOP yesterday: We just cannot afford to ensure every American has health care.

GOP today: Here's a $2 trillion tax cut for rich people.

A + B = C ?
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1258
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3579 on: September 29, 2017, 07:38:36 AM »
We're not a democracy any longer.  The US has become a weird corrupt Republic where secretive donations to political candidates, gerrymandering of districts, discouraging certain voters through Voter ID laws, making voting difficult in urban areas, and destroying the opposition through lies and false media reports help to maintain single political party control. In such an environment a lunatic becomes president and legislation is pushed as a panacea for working people when in reality it's a tax cut for richest 1/10 of 1%. Not sure where this leads us.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3580 on: September 29, 2017, 07:57:36 AM »
We're not a democracy any longer.  The US has become a weird corrupt Republic where secretive donations to political candidates, gerrymandering of districts, discouraging certain voters through Voter ID laws, making voting difficult in urban areas, and destroying the opposition through lies and false media reports help to maintain single political party control. In such an environment a lunatic becomes president and legislation is pushed as a panacea for working people when in reality it's a tax cut for richest 1/10 of 1%. Not sure where this leads us.

For context, refer to history.  Sure we have major political problems to a functional democratic republic such a gerrymandering and voter supression efforts, but this country has seen - and survived - far worse. Voter intimidation frequently entailed physical violence and death threats (sometimes carried out) half a century ago. Citizens United may have opened the floodgates for super PACs and unaccountable money in politics, but at the turn of the 19th century a few monopolies and hyper-rich white men literally controlled both politicians and all media outlets available in many markets. Hired thugs broke up union strikes (violently) and for over half of our 240+ year history women, blacks, gays  and others have had far fewer rights and opportunities than they do now. American citizens of Japanese dissent were detained for years for teh simple reason that their ancestors were from Japan.

Present assaults on democracy demand outraged responses, but so far our country has held.
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1258
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3581 on: September 29, 2017, 08:39:51 AM »
Good counterpoint

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5413
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3582 on: September 29, 2017, 09:03:13 AM »
The difference between this particular assault on democracy and our previous ones is the current President.  For the very first time in our history, we have elected a President with absolutely no history of holding elected office.  He has zero relevant political experience.  And he ran on a platform of deliberately undermining the Constitution.

The party he adopted and now owns has transformed under his leadership into one that actively seeks to undermine American values, and an electoral college majority's worth of people support that goal.

American history is littered with sins, but throughout this history we held strong to the notion of helping America succeed in the world.  We didn't always go about it in the right way, but our leaders at least tried to do what they thought was best for the country.  They wanted the country to grow in size and influence and prosperity.  Donald Trump doesn't care what happens to America, he only cares what happens to Donald Trump. 

I'm not as optimistic as nereo.  This isn't just more of the same America making mistakes, this is America actively trying to self destruct.  Dismantling the American healthcare system is but one symptom of this overarching objective.

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6963
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3583 on: September 29, 2017, 10:12:35 AM »
For the very first time in our history, we have elected a President with absolutely no history of holding elected office.
Except for the other U.S. Presidents With No Political Experience.

Quote
The party he adopted and now owns has transformed under his leadership into one that actively seeks to undermine American values, and an electoral college majority's worth of people support that goal.

American history is littered with sins, but throughout this history we held strong to the notion of helping America succeed in the world.  We didn't always go about it in the right way, but our leaders at least tried to do what they thought was best for the country.  They wanted the country to grow in size and influence and prosperity.  Donald Trump doesn't care what happens to America, he only cares what happens to Donald Trump.

I'm not as optimistic as nereo.  This isn't just more of the same America making mistakes, this is America actively trying to self destruct.  Dismantling the American healthcare system is but one symptom of this overarching objective.
Perhaps, but practically this same line of reasoning was used by conservatives maligning Barack Obama.  The more things change, the more they stay the same.

tyort1

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1624
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3584 on: September 29, 2017, 10:27:18 AM »
For the very first time in our history, we have elected a President with absolutely no history of holding elected office.
Except for the other U.S. Presidents With No Political Experience.

Quote
The party he adopted and now owns has transformed under his leadership into one that actively seeks to undermine American values, and an electoral college majority's worth of people support that goal.

American history is littered with sins, but throughout this history we held strong to the notion of helping America succeed in the world.  We didn't always go about it in the right way, but our leaders at least tried to do what they thought was best for the country.  They wanted the country to grow in size and influence and prosperity.  Donald Trump doesn't care what happens to America, he only cares what happens to Donald Trump.

I'm not as optimistic as nereo.  This isn't just more of the same America making mistakes, this is America actively trying to self destruct.  Dismantling the American healthcare system is but one symptom of this overarching objective.
Perhaps, but practically this same line of reasoning was used by conservatives maligning Barack Obama.  The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Agreed!  The history of this country (from a social progress perspective), has always been the progressives pushing for change, getting a bit, and then the reactionaries (conservatives) pushing back against that change.  The bigger or faster the change, the harder the pushback.  In fact, if one were to look at the amount and rate of change since the 1960's to today, we've actually had a huge amount of change at a very fast pace (vs the historical rate of change).  That's why you're seeing this level of craziness from the right - they are being honest when they say they "want their country back".  But it's not going back, and they secretly know that, and that's what gives the edge of bitterness and the "burn it all down" mentality. 

Here's the other thing adding fuel to the fire - the flight of young people away from small/medium sized towns, towards the cities.  Not only are Millennials by far the most progressive group in American history, but they are also leaving small town America at an accelerated rate, which (along with automation and the raping of small towns by companies like Walmart) leaves those small towns in pretty dire straits, economically.  What do you do, when your future moves to the city and ain't never comin' back?  If you're a small town conservative, you get angry and rage against the machine.  And elect Donald Trump, so that he can vent your rage and make everyone suffer as you have. 
Frugalite in training.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3585 on: September 29, 2017, 12:44:59 PM »
Sol's got me thinking about whether I"m an optimist as it comes to the future of US democracy.  Perhaps I am. More specifically though, I'm pretty pessimistic about the near-term (say the next 1-4 years) but far more bullish a decade out.  Similar to what tyort1 said, I think there's a 'tick-tock' that goes on; social issues get advanced, then there's a sharp reactionary pullback from those that are duped into thinking they somehow got 'left behind'.  Generally these people aren't left behind at all, but succumb to the argument that things would be even better if not for all that leftest evil goin' on.  Anyway, I digress...
Yes, I think its going to be a constant battle to keep health care and basic rights for large swaths of americans.  Wacko idealogues like Moore will join other 'burn-it-down' extremests like Cruz and they might actually carry through on some of their promises.  BUT - I don't think its sustainable.  The GOP faced a choice after their 2012 defeat (the famous "autopsy") about whether to be a more inclusive, mainstream party (the committee's recommendation) or to continue down their plight-of-the-white-man rabbit hole. Obviously with Trump they chose the latter.  But demographics is going to bite them in the ass in the long-term. Older white Americans are going to slowly die away, which overwhelmingly voted for Trupm and have supported this latest version of the GOP.  Millennials are filling their ranks.  While they still don't vote in the percentages that boomers do, by 2020 they will cast more total votes as the ranks of the boomers start to shrink (the oldest are already in their 70s). The Millennials are overwhelmingly in favor of gay marriage and by a strong majority support universal health care, but don't care as much about SS benefits. At the same time the country is becoming more diverse overall, with white voters making up a smaller and smaller portion.
Now I'm watching the GOP as it has doubled-down on its rich white base. Every time they've supported (or failed to condemn) racists tweets will make it that much harder to woo those voters in the future. It's simply demographics - over the next few election cycles their base is going to shrink relative to the broader population. By NOT being more inclusive and by directly attacking and scapegoating minorities they're going to make it much harder to flip these voters in the future.  There's a lot of work that demonstrates that we develop our political ideologies in our 20s and once established they are very hard to shift.  Right now we've got an historically unpopular president and congress among this vital future demographic. I doubt anything the GOP does after this president will make them look favorably on the GOP.

But what about gerrymandering? Right now we've got so many house seats that are so safe it supports tea-party candidates and other extremists. But gerrymandering works both ways.  Its a wall to keep out the rising tide, but should the tide ever overtop the wall it becomes a bathtub where the water can't drain away, swamping those inside.  The 2020 census should be eye-opening for the GOP (perhaps that's why they are currently underfunding it). As tyort1 mentioned, the biggest demographic shift has been from rural to urban areas. These wonky regions that are currently safe GOP moats are going to ahve to be re-drawn after the census in several states, and its going to take a lot more square miles of rural area for each district, diluting their power. The GOP lost the popular vote in hte last election, it could be much worse in the next.

Finally, should they ever get legislative momentum going they could be destroyed by their own actions. Right now they still blame all social ills on the last President ("thanks Obama!") but that goat can only be flogged so many times. Imagine they actually pass this tax reform are repeal the ACA. Even greater income disparity and millions of uninsured will almost certainly be the result, and they'll own that. Sooner or later a recession is going to hit and with each passing month its going to be harder to believably pin it on decisions by the previous administration.

in sum: the GOP has all the power right now and things will almost certainly get worse before they get better for progressively minded individuals. But the harder the GOP works to push their agenda the worse they'll do 7+ years from now. This could be a generational game-changer for republicans, but they are so focused on the 'now' they aren't (or won't) even consider the future.
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

GuitarStv

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9112
  • Age: 36
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3586 on: September 29, 2017, 01:47:23 PM »
Sol's got me thinking about whether I"m an optimist as it comes to the future of US democracy.  Perhaps I am. More specifically though, I'm pretty pessimistic about the near-term (say the next 1-4 years) but far more bullish a decade out.  Similar to what tyort1 said, I think there's a 'tick-tock' that goes on; social issues get advanced, then there's a sharp reactionary pullback from those that are duped into thinking they somehow got 'left behind'.  Generally these people aren't left behind at all, but succumb to the argument that things would be even better if not for all that leftest evil goin' on.  Anyway, I digress...
Yes, I think its going to be a constant battle to keep health care and basic rights for large swaths of americans.  Wacko idealogues like Moore will join other 'burn-it-down' extremests like Cruz and they might actually carry through on some of their promises.  BUT - I don't think its sustainable.  The GOP faced a choice after their 2012 defeat (the famous "autopsy") about whether to be a more inclusive, mainstream party (the committee's recommendation) or to continue down their plight-of-the-white-man rabbit hole. Obviously with Trump they chose the latter.  But demographics is going to bite them in the ass in the long-term. Older white Americans are going to slowly die away, which overwhelmingly voted for Trupm and have supported this latest version of the GOP.  Millennials are filling their ranks.  While they still don't vote in the percentages that boomers do, by 2020 they will cast more total votes as the ranks of the boomers start to shrink (the oldest are already in their 70s). The Millennials are overwhelmingly in favor of gay marriage and by a strong majority support universal health care, but don't care as much about SS benefits. At the same time the country is becoming more diverse overall, with white voters making up a smaller and smaller portion.
Now I'm watching the GOP as it has doubled-down on its rich white base. Every time they've supported (or failed to condemn) racists tweets will make it that much harder to woo those voters in the future. It's simply demographics - over the next few election cycles their base is going to shrink relative to the broader population. By NOT being more inclusive and by directly attacking and scapegoating minorities they're going to make it much harder to flip these voters in the future.  There's a lot of work that demonstrates that we develop our political ideologies in our 20s and once established they are very hard to shift.  Right now we've got an historically unpopular president and congress among this vital future demographic. I doubt anything the GOP does after this president will make them look favorably on the GOP.

But what about gerrymandering? Right now we've got so many house seats that are so safe it supports tea-party candidates and other extremists. But gerrymandering works both ways.  Its a wall to keep out the rising tide, but should the tide ever overtop the wall it becomes a bathtub where the water can't drain away, swamping those inside.  The 2020 census should be eye-opening for the GOP (perhaps that's why they are currently underfunding it). As tyort1 mentioned, the biggest demographic shift has been from rural to urban areas. These wonky regions that are currently safe GOP moats are going to ahve to be re-drawn after the census in several states, and its going to take a lot more square miles of rural area for each district, diluting their power. The GOP lost the popular vote in hte last election, it could be much worse in the next.

Finally, should they ever get legislative momentum going they could be destroyed by their own actions. Right now they still blame all social ills on the last President ("thanks Obama!") but that goat can only be flogged so many times. Imagine they actually pass this tax reform are repeal the ACA. Even greater income disparity and millions of uninsured will almost certainly be the result, and they'll own that. Sooner or later a recession is going to hit and with each passing month its going to be harder to believably pin it on decisions by the previous administration.

in sum: the GOP has all the power right now and things will almost certainly get worse before they get better for progressively minded individuals. But the harder the GOP works to push their agenda the worse they'll do 7+ years from now. This could be a generational game-changer for republicans, but they are so focused on the 'now' they aren't (or won't) even consider the future.

So to summarize . . . Trump is going to make America great again!

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6963
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3587 on: September 29, 2017, 01:58:10 PM »
So to summarize . . . Trump is going to make America great again!
Yup.  Y'all come down and visit now, y'hear?

talltexan

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 982
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3588 on: September 29, 2017, 02:07:21 PM »
@ Sol...

"But at least is NOT Socialism"....:)

Actually, Sanders appearing on the scene with his single payer bill was an incredible gift to Graham-Cassidy, who basically said the alternative to their bill was "Socialism". I.e. the Sanders plan.

jim555

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1290
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3589 on: September 29, 2017, 02:54:54 PM »
Price just resigned.  Guess he got tired of trying to sabotage the ACA.

Inaya

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1341
  • Age: 32
  • Location: Chicago, IL
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3590 on: September 29, 2017, 03:06:49 PM »
So will Trump put somebody worse there, or simply not put anyone there?
My Cleverly Titled Journal: http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/cleverly-titled-journal/
My Cat's Facebook Page (yes, really): www.facebook.com/chicagotau
Tau now has an Instagram: www.instagram.com/chicagotau or #chicagotau
Ting referral ($25 credit!): https://zds8505smfe.ting.com/
Discover Card referral ($50 now and $50 after your first year! and free credit monitoring): https://refer.discover.com/s/gv3ma

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5413
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3591 on: September 29, 2017, 03:13:33 PM »
So will Trump put somebody worse there, or simply not put anyone there?

Who could be worse than the fiercest critic the ACA in Congress?  Maybe Trump's personal doctor?


Mr. Green

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1397
  • Age: 34
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3592 on: September 29, 2017, 03:22:54 PM »
Agreed!  The history of this country (from a social progress perspective), has always been the progressives pushing for change, getting a bit, and then the reactionaries (conservatives) pushing back against that change.  The bigger or faster the change, the harder the pushback.  In fact, if one were to look at the amount and rate of change since the 1960's to today, we've actually had a huge amount of change at a very fast pace (vs the historical rate of change).  That's why you're seeing this level of craziness from the right - they are being honest when they say they "want their country back".  But it's not going back, and they secretly know that, and that's what gives the edge of bitterness and the "burn it all down" mentality. 

Here's the other thing adding fuel to the fire - the flight of young people away from small/medium sized towns, towards the cities.  Not only are Millennials by far the most progressive group in American history, but they are also leaving small town America at an accelerated rate, which (along with automation and the raping of small towns by companies like Walmart) leaves those small towns in pretty dire straits, economically.  What do you do, when your future moves to the city and ain't never comin' back?  If you're a small town conservative, you get angry and rage against the machine.  And elect Donald Trump, so that he can vent your rage and make everyone suffer as you have.
I believe we are witnessing the last gasps of the "old guard." When you suffocate someone they always fight the hardest right before they die. That's what is happening.
FIRE, Take Two.

Exflyboy

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4429
  • Age: 56
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3593 on: September 29, 2017, 03:31:24 PM »
Now there is a picture of health...NOT!

The way I look at it.. I'm FIRED, fuck it.. We can live anywhere in the World and leave our money in US stock ETFs and the Healthcare Cartel will continue to pay 15% of my annual dividends. While I buy HC much cheaper somewhere else.


Bateaux

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 797
  • Location: Port Vincent
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3594 on: September 29, 2017, 03:40:48 PM »
Now there is a picture of health...NOT!

The way I look at it.. I'm FIRED, fuck it.. We can live anywhere in the World and leave our money in US stock ETFs and the Healthcare Cartel will continue to pay 15% of my annual dividends. While I buy HC much cheaper somewhere else.

Give me a heads up when it's time to bug-out. 
“Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.”
 ― Antoine de Saint Exupery-

Class of 2019

dividendman

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 997
  • Age: 35
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3595 on: September 29, 2017, 06:11:57 PM »
So will Trump put somebody worse there, or simply not put anyone there?

Who could be worse than the fiercest critic the ACA in Congress?

I fear Trump is going to answer your question very soon.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6495
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3596 on: September 30, 2017, 10:23:50 AM »

I believe we are witnessing the last gasps of the "old guard." When you suffocate someone they always fight the hardest right before they die. That's what is happening.
uhh...... you're scaring me Mr Green. Let's keep our distances, ok?
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

FIREchiefsr

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3597 on: September 30, 2017, 02:50:17 PM »
Question about the ACA exchanges:

Consider somebody very poor and currently getting free insurance through an exchange.  As I understand it, a major concern right now is that with insurance companies pulling out of the exchanges there is less competition and the remaining company (in some cases) is hiking rates to ensure profitability.  The result is that the subsidies for the plans go up, thus costing the fed more money.  The "cure" is that the fed gives money to the insurance companies so that they won't lose money and will offer lower premiums in the exchanges.  Isn't the fed paying either way?  How does the fed save money by not guaranteeing the payments to the insurance companies?   I must be missing something here.  Thanks.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2017, 03:34:59 PM by FIREchiefsr »
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

jim555

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1290
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3598 on: September 30, 2017, 03:04:54 PM »
Trump keeps talking about ending the CSRs (Cost Sharing Reductions) for the Silver plans.  As a result the rates are rising since the insurance companies are obligated to give cost sharing whether or not Trump pays them.  When all is said and done it will cost the Feds more to end the CSRs since the subsidies go up when the prices go up.  The big losers are those making >400% FPL.

So conservatives will spend more to make a point about a former president they don't like.

The insurance companies will sue and probably win and the Feds will have to pay them anyway.

FIREchiefsr

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3599 on: September 30, 2017, 03:34:16 PM »
Thanks jim555.  My understanding was that some of the companies leaving the exchanges are still selling individual policies in the same state (I assume because they have determined that the individual policy market outside of the exchanges provides a more desirable/profitable risk pool).

Other than the exchanges, are there any other parts of the ACA that are "failing?"  It seems that all of the consumer protection rules are functioning as designed, and somebody who doesn't qualify for subsidies is able to buy a policy in a competitive market.
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.