Author Topic: What comes after the ACA?  (Read 349840 times)

OurTown

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3500 on: September 22, 2017, 11:24:44 AM »
With climate change, Alaska might be downright comfortable.

tyort1

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3501 on: September 22, 2017, 11:31:10 AM »
I'm with Sol.  I'm fed up with the ignorance of the average red state voter.   They never research anything, they never study cost increase trends that started decades before O-Care.  They refuse to accept that single payer would be more cost-effective vs for profit insurance.  Screw them!  Pass the shit and let them suffer.  I'm allocating between 500k and 1M to my FIRE kitty just for future health care costs.  These knuckle dragging idiots haven't got two nickels to rub together and they support tax cuts for the 1%.

Why is this at all surprising?

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Exflyboy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3502 on: September 22, 2017, 11:41:11 AM »
Ok I'm thinking or emigrating again.. I emigrated here.. I've made my money.. I think I'm done!

where can I find a link to that above info??.. Notice it came from "Fox Business"..

tyort1

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3503 on: September 22, 2017, 11:51:19 AM »
Ok I'm thinking or emigrating again.. I emigrated here.. I've made my money.. I think I'm done!

where can I find a link to that above info??.. Notice it came from "Fox Business"..

The data from Fox is from 2012, but things haven't changed much in the last 5 years:

https://wallethub.com/edu/most-educated-states/31075/

The problem is The South.  The armpit of America.  The South has been an albatross around the neck of the rest of us since the beginning of this country.  I say this as someone born and partly-raised in Texas, with tons of family still there. 
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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3504 on: September 22, 2017, 12:02:55 PM »

protostache

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3505 on: September 22, 2017, 12:04:37 PM »
It might be over, folks. McCain is a solid "no" on Graham-Cassidy. He does say he might vote yes on something like it if it were the product of regular order, but I sort of think he put that in there because Graham is one of his oldest friends. There's no way something like Graham-Cassidy would come out of regular committee hearings and markup.

We'll see if more senators make statements, but with Paul and McCain as solid "no"s and Collins and Murkowski leaning that way I can't see McConnell putting it on the floor next week.

We'll also see soon enough what the reconciliation instructions are in the 2018 budget resolution. It's of course possible to put instructions in for a bill that both repeals ACA and does tax reform, whatever that means, but it would be incredibly difficult.

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3506 on: September 22, 2017, 12:16:08 PM »
It might be over, folks. McCain is a solid "no" on Graham-Cassidy. He does say he might vote yes on something like it if it were the product of regular order, but I sort of think he put that in there because Graham is one of his oldest friends. There's no way something like Graham-Cassidy would come out of regular committee hearings and markup.

We'll see if more senators make statements, but with Paul and McCain as solid "no"s and Collins and Murkowski leaning that way I can't see McConnell putting it on the floor next week.

We'll also see soon enough what the reconciliation instructions are in the 2018 budget resolution. It's of course possible to put instructions in for a bill that both repeals ACA and does tax reform, whatever that means, but it would be incredibly difficult.
Is McCain a "no" or could he possibly be an abstain?  He is clear that he won't vote in favour of Graham-Cassidy but not quite so clear that he will be voting against.
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Exflyboy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3507 on: September 22, 2017, 12:22:53 PM »
I think this farce is as good as dead.. Of course the GOP could still stop funding subsidies and effectively kill the ACA anyway.. But thats a battle for another day.

protostache

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3508 on: September 22, 2017, 12:48:02 PM »
It might be over, folks. McCain is a solid "no" on Graham-Cassidy. He does say he might vote yes on something like it if it were the product of regular order, but I sort of think he put that in there because Graham is one of his oldest friends. There's no way something like Graham-Cassidy would come out of regular committee hearings and markup.

We'll see if more senators make statements, but with Paul and McCain as solid "no"s and Collins and Murkowski leaning that way I can't see McConnell putting it on the floor next week.

We'll also see soon enough what the reconciliation instructions are in the 2018 budget resolution. It's of course possible to put instructions in for a bill that both repeals ACA and does tax reform, whatever that means, but it would be incredibly difficult.
Is McCain a "no" or could he possibly be an abstain?  He is clear that he won't vote in favour of Graham-Cassidy but not quite so clear that he will be voting against.

In this case I don't think the distinction matters. The Democrats and Independents have 48 "no"s, Paul is a definite "no" and Collins is almost certainly a "no". If McCain abstains, that means there are 50 "no"s to 49 "aye"s. Pence doesn't get to step in because there's no tie to break.

Exflyboy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3509 on: September 22, 2017, 12:59:50 PM »
Lets hope all the "no's" stick to their guns.

Luck12

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3510 on: September 22, 2017, 01:15:19 PM »
I don't trust Paul to vote no despite all the bluster.  Call Collins and Murkowski offices. 

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3511 on: September 22, 2017, 03:24:04 PM »
I think this farce is as good as dead.. Of course the GOP could still stop funding subsidies and effectively kill the ACA anyway.. But thats a battle for another day.

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sol

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3512 on: September 22, 2017, 05:00:55 PM »
I think this farce is as good as dead.. Of course the GOP could still stop funding subsidies and effectively kill the ACA anyway.. But thats a battle for another day.

Never turn your back on a zombie.

Put two in the head.  In this case, it better be three.

FireLane

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3513 on: September 22, 2017, 07:48:12 PM »
I'm with Sol.  I'm fed up with the ignorance of the average red state voter.   They never research anything, they never study cost increase trends that started decades before O-Care.  They refuse to accept that single payer would be more cost-effective vs for profit insurance.  Screw them!  Pass the shit and let them suffer.  I'm allocating between 500k and 1M to my FIRE kitty just for future health care costs.  These knuckle dragging idiots haven't got two nickels to rub together and they support tax cuts for the 1%.

I'm with you on this. I'm a high earner, and I'd gladly pay more in taxes if it allowed this country to have some sort of reasonable universal coverage plan, like, you know, every other industrialized nation in the world.

But it looks like red America doesn't want that. Well, to hell with them, then, and let them have what they voted for. I don't know why they're so determined to screw themselves over so badly, but I no longer want to save them from their own stupidity. If they want to suffer and die just so they can give me more money, I'll take it.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3514 on: September 22, 2017, 09:05:35 PM »
I don't think Murkowski can be bribed into voting for this repeal/replace because it could bite her later.  Another bill could be enacted to no longer provide Alaska with special ACA subsidies that none of the other states get. If Murkowski voted for repeal/replace, she would have no allies to prevent a future bill from removing the special status that Alaska would enjoy.

So this means 3 Republican no votes, Murkowski, Collins and McCain.  Dead in the water.

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3515 on: September 22, 2017, 09:14:16 PM »
The republicans/tea party should be cursing the name of Joe Miller tonight. If he hadn't denied Murkowski the republican nomination in 2010 she'd probably still be in the position of most deep red state republicans today, more afraid of a primary from the right than losing their reelection bid in the general. But because of Joe Miller, Murkowski knows she can run against both republican AND democratic nominees, as a write-in candidate with a hard to spell name, and still get re-elected in Alaska.

The neither the republican establishment nor the tea party/trump wing of the party can credibly put any pressure on her at this point.
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sol

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3516 on: September 22, 2017, 11:07:20 PM »
The neither the republican establishment nor the tea party/trump wing of the party can credibly put any pressure on her at this point.

It's almost like the entire underpinnings of the republican ideology fall apart when representatives are allowed to represent the people who elected them instead of the party itself.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3517 on: September 22, 2017, 11:41:07 PM »
Honestly, I just hope Americans realize that next week we will be treated to a seminal event in modern political history.  If Republicans cave to terrible policy to meet a deadline and save their hide (exposed by Trump continually lambasting them for having 7 years to come up with a 'better' healthcare plan), then we are at a turning point, Trump or not.

However, if Republicans can show that they are actually a party of ideals and stand up against this, then maybe we are still a true democracy.  Maybe there is hope that politicians, by nature of politics at least, are willing to stand up for what is best for their constituents long term.  Whether they can actually do the hard work of crafting a bipartisan proposal that gets public support is a whole other issue, but it would be quite refreshing to see that be the goal.
Transitioning to FIRE'd albeit somewhat cautiously...

jim555

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3518 on: September 23, 2017, 04:59:45 PM »
The people are not going to put up with going back to 2009 health insurance.  The Repubs should embrace the ACA and make it work since it may stave off a worse (in their eyes) single payer scheme.  The ACA is very Republican really.  Their party has been taken over by idealogues who are disconnected from real world consequences of their hideous philosophy.  They should be thanking those who voted against the "repeal", they just saved the Repubs from themselves.

Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and now the ACA are entrenched and they are going to have to learn live with it and make it work.

BuildingFrugalHabits

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3519 on: September 23, 2017, 05:28:21 PM »
The people are not going to put up with going back to 2009 health insurance.  The Repubs should embrace the ACA and make it work since it may stave off a worse (in their eyes) single payer scheme.  The ACA is very Republican really.  Their party has been taken over by idealogues who are disconnected from real world consequences of their hideous philosophy.  They should be thanking those who voted against the "repeal", they just saved the Repubs from themselves.

Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and now the ACA are entrenched and they are going to have to learn live with it and make it work.

Well said, my thoughts exactly.

nereo

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3520 on: September 25, 2017, 05:59:12 AM »
The GOP sweetens the pot for both Alaska and Maine, hoping to secure votes from Collins and Murkowski.
They'll need both if McCain stays a no (seems definite) and Paul votes no as well (who the hell knows with Paul).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/new-version-of-health-care-bill-will-help-alaska-and-maine--home-of-two-holdout-senators/2017/09/25/24697f62-a188-11e7-b14f-f41773cd5a14_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_healthcare-730a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.b61b14abf198
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OurTown

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3521 on: September 25, 2017, 06:40:59 AM »
Okay, so how about every other Republican from every other state withhold support until his/her state gets a bribe too?

nereo

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3522 on: September 25, 2017, 07:02:33 AM »
Okay, so how about every other Republican from every other state withhold support until his/her state gets a bribe too?
Yeah, that's the risk whenever you start offering sweetheart deals to individual members in exchange for their vote.
in this case it helps the GOP that both Maine and Alaska are small states (funding-wise). In their calculus, adding a couple $B to two holdouts is worth the cost, and won't cause larger states to make similar demands.

Still irks me that a senator might consider voting for something he/she knows would be bad for the coutnry at large but "ok" for his/her own constituants simply because they get a rider attached.  If it smells bad at its core, some pork on top still means its bad at the core.
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AdrianC

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3523 on: September 25, 2017, 07:05:44 AM »
The people are not going to put up with going back to 2009 health insurance. 

Wish I had your faith in the people.

Seems to me that many/most people agree with Kellyanne Conway: "If they are able-bodied and they want to work, then they'll have employer-sponsored benefits like you and I do."

She makes my blood boil.

nereo

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3524 on: September 25, 2017, 07:15:36 AM »

Wish I had your faith in the people.

Seems to me that many/most people agree with Kellyanne Conway: "If they are able-bodied and they want to work, then they'll have employer-sponsored benefits like you and I do."

I have held about a dozen jobs and worked for a half-dozen companies over the previous ~2 decades. I've only had employer-sponsored health care at two of those jobs.  For all the rest I've either been labeled an 'independent contractor' or worked for a company that was too small to offer benefits (e.g. my last company had 7 full time employees).  BIL has serious chronic health problems and works in media production. From what I hear, non-freelance jobs in that sector are like unicorns.  Lately his central focus has been finding a job that has health care benefits - no small challenge and requires giving up enormous flexibility, pay and moveability.

tl/dr: people who say things like 'if you want to work you'll hae employer-sponsored benefits' don't get the modern economy.  It was far worse pre-2009, which is where the GOP seems to want to take us.
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AdrianC

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3525 on: September 25, 2017, 11:15:27 AM »
tl/dr: people who say things like 'if you want to work you'll hae employer-sponsored benefits' don't get the modern economy.  It was far worse pre-2009, which is where the GOP seems to want to take us.
Preachin' to the choir. I've been self-employed/free-lance/FIRE since 1999. I see more and more people doing what I've been doing.

At some point we might become an important voting block. About 4% of the US population was covered by Obamacare in 2017 (not including Medicaid), and another 3% with non-group cover outside of Obamacare.

sol

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3526 on: September 25, 2017, 11:35:30 AM »
The newest republican version of repeal and replace is worse than the last version, in the sense of deeper funding cuts and more people being uninsured and more loss of patient protections like coverage for pre-existing conditions.

But it still has the support of most republican senators.  John McCain and Rand Paul and Ted Cruz and Mike Lee are all publicly opposed.  Murkowski and Collins are on the fence but both appear to be leaning against it, while weighing their principles against the bill's bribery for their individual state markets.

In order to pass this, McConnell needs to flip four of these six people.  I think McCain and Murkowski are lost causes because of missing political leverage, but the other four could absolutely turn on a dime when it comes time to turn the thumb screws.  Cruz and Lee have no principles anyway.  I think Collins can be bought.  And I think Paul is only opposing it for show, and not-so-secretly wants to vote for it.

Nevermind that every single medical/insurance/patient lobby opposes it.  Nevermind that approximately 80% of the country and 54% of republicans oppose it.  They may still pass it anyway, and if they do I suspect the House would jump at the chance to rubber stamp it and Trump's celebratory press conference will probably have dancing girls in the Rose Garden.

protostache

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3527 on: September 25, 2017, 12:03:59 PM »
The newest republican version of repeal and replace is worse than the last version, in the sense of deeper funding cuts and more people being uninsured and more loss of patient protections like coverage for pre-existing conditions.

But it still has the support of most republican senators.  John McCain and Rand Paul and Ted Cruz and Mike Lee are all publicly opposed.  Murkowski and Collins are on the fence but both appear to be leaning against it, while weighing their principles against the bill's bribery for their individual state markets.

In order to pass this, McConnell needs to flip four of these six people.  I think McCain and Murkowski are lost causes because of missing political leverage, but the other four could absolutely turn on a dime when it comes time to turn the thumb screws.  Cruz and Lee have no principles anyway.  I think Collins can be bought.  And I think Paul is only opposing it for show, and not-so-secretly wants to vote for it.

Nevermind that every single medical/insurance/patient lobby opposes it.  Nevermind that approximately 80% of the country and 54% of republicans oppose it.  They may still pass it anyway, and if they do I suspect the House would jump at the chance to rubber stamp it and Trump's celebratory press conference will probably have dancing girls in the Rose Garden.

Paul Ryan already said he's ready and willing and able to take it up and pass it in 18 hours.

Exflyboy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3528 on: September 25, 2017, 12:11:55 PM »
I don't get a good feeling about this at all.. Hopefully it was just something I ate!

sol

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3529 on: September 25, 2017, 12:21:58 PM »
One positive aspect of this whole conundrum is that it has finally revealed the GOP position more clearly to people who previously wanted to vote republican.

People were unhappy with American healthcare, and the GOP effectively focused that discontent on the ACA.  They promised to make health care better by repealing it.

But then every single one of their proposals tried to make it worse, instead of better.  People are still unhappy about American healthcare, but they at least like having it.  The GOP doesn't really care about healthcare, they care about shrinking federal spending on healthcare.  They want to make healthcare worse for Americans in order to support their small government philosophy.  All of those promises about improved care and better prices were just bad smokescreen for their underlying goal of slashing federal spending on health benefits for American citizens.  This third proposal follows the first two failed proposals in promising to fuck up the entire American healthcare system in the name of tax cuts.  "Screw sick people, we have to reduce spending so we can cut taxes on rich people."

I think that message is finally filtering down to all of those reluctant Trump voters who were angry about the status quo.  Turns out the GOP doesn't care about them, and isn't trying to improve things for them.

It's the flip side of the 37 repeal and replace bills they passed under Obama while trying to score political points.  Keep restating the same message with more votes, but in this case the message is "we don't really want you to have health insurance, we just want tax cuts for rich party donors."
« Last Edit: September 25, 2017, 12:24:55 PM by sol »

Exflyboy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3530 on: September 25, 2017, 12:28:20 PM »
Exactly which is why there should be an IQ test before you get a vote... Just my (not so) Humble opinion.

thenextguy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3531 on: September 25, 2017, 02:35:52 PM »
Exactly which is why there should be an IQ test before you get a vote... Just my (not so) Humble opinion.

Yeah, that won't be abused or anything.

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3532 on: September 25, 2017, 03:51:28 PM »
Exactly which is why there should be an IQ test before you get a vote... Just my (not so) Humble opinion.

Yeah, that won't be abused or anything.
Hey, Frank's a Brit from our old days of a homogenous society with a decent level of basic public education for all.  No racial or class bias intended.
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thenextguy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3533 on: September 25, 2017, 04:35:07 PM »
Susan Collins is formally a "no." With her and McCain against, it seems extremely unlikely there will be enough votes. Rand Paul has come out against, but I'm not sure I trust him. Still, they'd need to flip either Paul or Murkowski (AK) to get the votes. Very unlikely.

nereo

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3534 on: September 25, 2017, 04:52:35 PM »
The Senate has admitted defeat on the latest iteration.  Orrin Hatch said he doubts they will bring it to the floor for a vote. Meanwhile, the hearings on the bill continue... bizarre.


ETA: fixed link
« Last Edit: September 25, 2017, 05:05:17 PM by nereo »
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thenextguy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3535 on: September 25, 2017, 04:58:22 PM »
The Senate has admitted defeat on the latest iteration.  Orrin Hatch said he doubts they will bring it to the floor for a vote. Meanwhile, the hearings on the bill continue... bizarre.[/url]

Check that link.

nereo

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3536 on: September 25, 2017, 05:05:47 PM »
The Senate has admitted defeat on the latest iteration.  Orrin Hatch said he doubts they will bring it to the floor for a vote. Meanwhile, the hearings on the bill continue... bizarre.[/url]

Check that link.
serves me right participating on multiple threads.
(link fixed)
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Exflyboy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3537 on: September 25, 2017, 05:15:29 PM »
Thank God!

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3538 on: September 25, 2017, 08:41:06 PM »
hip hip hoorayyy  !!!!

tyort1

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3539 on: September 25, 2017, 08:49:19 PM »
Good lord, Republicans are like the Keystone Cops of modern politics. 
Frugalite in training.

jim555

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3540 on: September 25, 2017, 10:07:48 PM »
I wouldn't celebrate yet, wait until 12:01am Oct 1st.  Never turn your back on a zombie! 

Mr Mark

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3541 on: September 26, 2017, 04:44:10 AM »
I wouldn't celebrate yet, wait until 12:01am Oct 1st.  Never turn your back on a zombie!

+1

Fingers crossed tho'!
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nereo

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3542 on: September 26, 2017, 05:53:31 AM »
I wouldn't celebrate yet, wait until 12:01am Oct 1st.  Never turn your back on a zombie!
we need a countdown clock.
At least one senior GOP senator is still calling for a floor vote.  not sure the reasoning there, either there's a faint hope it still may pass (unlikely) or they want to have their voting record say they voted for a repeal (likely) but they were stymied by obstructionist democrats who refuse to tear down their signature, popular law and that guy who got himself captured.
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thenextguy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3543 on: September 26, 2017, 08:25:53 AM »
I wouldn't celebrate yet, wait until 12:01am Oct 1st.  Never turn your back on a zombie!

I'd be hesitant to celebrate even then. There is some talk about using next year's reconciliation bill to do tax reform and health care. I know there's a lot of Senators against that plan, but you never know what might happen.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/26/16361250/obamacare-repeal-deadline-september-30
« Last Edit: September 26, 2017, 08:34:59 AM by thenextguy »

nereo

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3544 on: September 26, 2017, 09:12:41 AM »
I wouldn't celebrate yet, wait until 12:01am Oct 1st.  Never turn your back on a zombie!

I'd be hesitant to celebrate even then. There is some talk about using next year's reconciliation bill to do tax reform and health care. I know there's a lot of Senators against that plan, but you never know what might happen.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/26/16361250/obamacare-repeal-deadline-september-30

I'm a bit hazy on how that would work, but as I understand it they would first need to pass another budget resolution (the current one extends into December) before attempting another 'repeal' bill under reconciliation.  If that's the case I don't see how they could do this before the holidays (at the earliest).

One interesting aspect is that any attempt to go this route will become increasingly mired in the 2018 mid-term elections. If I were up for re-election I don't think I would want to poke this hornets nest a third (fourth?) time right when I"m trying to line up donors and build support.  Might as well give democrats a whip and say "here, flog me for a few more weeks, would ya?"
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sol

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3545 on: September 26, 2017, 09:25:32 AM »
If they can't find the votes to pass ACA repeal under reconciliation this year, why do they think it will be any easier to simultaneously pass repeal AND tax reform under reconciliation next year?

I think they're going to have to wait until after the midterms, and hope some of the no votes get primaried (or die of brain cancer).

OurTown

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3546 on: September 26, 2017, 09:50:36 AM »
I have a great idea!  Maybe people should vote in accordance with their own economic interests.

ixtap

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3547 on: September 26, 2017, 10:12:24 AM »
I have a great idea!  Maybe people should vote in accordance with their own economic interests.

Most people don't have a good enough grasp of economics to do so. A large percentage of the population sees economically successful people and assume that those successful people will run things in a way that makes the voter successful, as well.

I was told a couple of weeks ago that the problem with most politicians is that they are greedy and corrupt and the problem with Bernie Sanders is that he wasn't smart enough to make a fortune.

Exflyboy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3548 on: September 26, 2017, 10:24:10 AM »
Maybe the sick feeling I have right now goes back to the election when everybody and his dog was predicting a Hilary win.. If the giant Orangutan can get elected then passing this POS so called healthcare reform should be a cake walk by comparison.. How many people do they have to bribe after all?

protostache

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #3549 on: September 26, 2017, 10:30:02 AM »
I have a great idea!  Maybe people should vote in accordance with their own economic interests.

Who do you mean by "people" here? The GOP senators are voting (or would be) according to their economic interests. Senators and representatives live and die by their donors in these tempestuous post-Citizens United days. Their donors want ACA repealed and are threatening to withhold funds if they don't get it.