Author Topic: What comes after the ACA?  (Read 237070 times)

radram

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1550 on: March 14, 2017, 09:51:29 AM »
Murkowski, McCain and a few others are also on record saying negative things about the plan.
People vote all the time for bills that have stuff in them they do not agree with. It used to be called compromise and was a sign of strength, not weakness. Times have changed.

Do you have a quote from ANY of them that they plan to vote NO?

When push comes to shove, their only 2 choices are to do NOTHING, or do SOMETHING. I contend that doing nothing would be political suicide since many ran on kill ACA and nothing else. It was effective. They won. They absolutely can not do NOTHING. Everyone is waiting for someone to blink. Will it be the freedom caucus, or the moderate Republicans? What does history tell us?

Not that I think it's so important for a Republican to publicly oppose the AHCA right now, but since you seem so insistent on it having meaning here you go:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-issa-s-not-prepared-to-support-gop-1489427228-htmlstory.html

Darrell Issa is a 'No.'

Thank you for the link. Interesting the political pandering never ends, as he qualified it with "right now". Keeping options open. It looks like they can lose 22 more R's in the house and still pass the bill and send it to the Senate.

I do think public silence on this issue is pseudo support. There is incredible pressure to do something, and it will increase if it looks like this plan turns out to be a this or nothing kind of option.

If you don't mind, I will refrain from thoughts of "this could never happen" in politics for a while :)

Have a great day.


radram

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1551 on: March 14, 2017, 09:56:04 AM »
I agree that many Republicans will pay a political price if they don't do something. But I don't think that means they can/will be able to do something. They ran against the ACA for 6 years, but they never thought ahead to what they would do if they actually had to do something. Now that we're here, they're discovering that they will also pay a political price if they actually do do something. The problem is that the political price to be paid is not uniform. Dean Heller, Senator of Nevada, might pay a political price for repealing the ACA. A Republican House member in a deep red gerrymandered district might pay a political price if they don't repeal the ACA. So which of the forces will win out? Well, given how incredibly thin the room for error is, especially in the Senate, I think it's going to be extremely difficult to find a plan that a majority of Republicans in the House and Senate can support.
So it sounds like you are of the opinion that the R's are screwed no matter what they do. That might be true, but if it is, that is all the more reason to do something while they have the power to do so without the D's.


wenchsenior

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1552 on: March 14, 2017, 09:56:19 AM »
I think this has a decent chance to pass the House, but I'm unsure about the Senate.   

In some ways, it would be better for the GOP if it didn't pass. Then they can say We tried, the Dems are Evil, and then they refuse to fix any of the current problems with the ACA and run on how it's failing the next 4 years.  Win/win. 

Cripes, maybe they are pushing this turd sandwich of a bill HOPING it will fail?

jim555

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1553 on: March 14, 2017, 10:04:11 AM »
Trump - “It’ll be another plan. But they’ll be beautifully covered. I don’t want single payer. What I do want is to be able to take care of people.”
Beautifully covered with a blanket over their heads, yep that is great coverage.

radram

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1554 on: March 14, 2017, 10:05:48 AM »
I think this has a decent chance to pass the House, but I'm unsure about the Senate.   

In some ways, it would be better for the GOP if it didn't pass. Then they can say We tried, the Dems are Evil, and then they refuse to fix any of the current problems with the ACA and run on how it's failing the next 4 years.  Win/win. 

Cripes, maybe they are pushing this turd sandwich of a bill HOPING it will fail?

I do not think they can hold that position for just a reconciliation bill. Too many people know dems can do NOTHING to stop it.



NoStacheOhio

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1555 on: March 14, 2017, 10:10:24 AM »
I'm also wondering if any Representatives are going to skip the vote or vote "present." Especially if it's still going to pass by ~20 votes. If a handful of people in competitive districts don't vote on it, I can't imagine the party being too upset.
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/digging-out-of-a-hole/

Scortius

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1556 on: March 14, 2017, 11:02:14 AM »
The reason Senator Cotton is pushing the House to reject the bill is because he and all the other Republican senators know that voting on this bill is political suicide.  It's a political hot-potato and no one wants to touch it.  If they vote and pass it through, their constituents will see none of the changes they expected from a repeal of Obamacare.  If they don't vote it through, their constituents will be angry that their representatives spent seven years bashing Obamacare, but did nothing to back up their words once they had the power to do so.

The best case for Republican senators is that any GOP health care bill dies in the House, allowing the senators to shrug and say "It's not our fault".

Mr Mark

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1557 on: March 14, 2017, 11:51:34 AM »
It seems obvious to me that the no. 1 driver is to get rid of the extra taxes imposed on rich people and insurance companies.

To accomplish that under reconciliation means it needs to cut payments somewhere. While still keeping a fig leaf of the things many voters like - 26 yr olds on parent's cover, preexisting conditions if you maintain coverage (sounds reasonable to a reb voter) and no cut to minimum benefit package.

Ergo massive cuts to Medicaid (state problem ) and working poor. They must cut somewhere to get it through. 
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 12:09:12 PM by Mr Mark »
Mr. Mark

NESailor

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1558 on: March 14, 2017, 12:40:37 PM »
The reason Senator Cotton is pushing the House to reject the bill is because he and all the other Republican senators know that voting on this bill is political suicide. It's a political hot-potato and no one wants to touch it.  If they vote and pass it through, their constituents will see none of the changes they expected from a repeal of Obamacare.  If they don't vote it through, their constituents will be angry that their representatives spent seven years bashing Obamacare, but did nothing to back up their words once they had the power to do so.

The best case for Republican senators is that any GOP health care bill dies in the House, allowing the senators to shrug and say "It's not our fault".

The big question I have is - is the general population educated enough about the issues here to actually realize the bolded part above?  I mean, truly grasp what's going on here? 

Bottom line is - there is no such thing as better coverage / care for less money with the current crap system we have in place.  We cannot simply get rid of the ideologically unpopular pieces (individual mandate) while keeping the good pieces (no pre-existing condition exclusion) and somehow hope that magic and goodwill is going to solve the cost problem.

Republicans have been simply too successful in convincing their base that Obamacare = bad.  So much so that they can't come up with something that ideologically more acceptable while also addressing the real issues we have in our healthcare system. 

We - and I mean everyone on the left and right - need to face the truth.  Healthcare is not something that lends itself to ideologically pure solutions.  Personally, I think this is a problem more for the right leaning crowd among us but hey...
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 01:14:27 PM by NESailor »

thenextguy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1560 on: March 14, 2017, 02:57:21 PM »
I think Scortius is right Republicans probably do hope this bill dies and it works out in such a way that they can continue to bash Obama and Democrats. This might help keep them from hemorrhaging seats in the house and senate over the next couple of elections.

But if their end goal is in fact to hammer Medicaid like the new bill or its next incarnation are likely to do, then we may see them take the "hot potato" and bad press since they will have achieved their primary goal.

Paul Ryan seemed all to giddy about how close they are to being able to seriously cut and curtail Medicaid.

thenextguy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1561 on: March 14, 2017, 03:06:16 PM »
I think Scortius is right Republicans probably do hope this bill dies and it works out in such a way that they can continue to bash Obama and Democrats. This might help keep them from hemorrhaging seats in the house and senate over the next couple of elections.

But if their end goal is in fact to hammer Medicaid like the new bill or its next incarnation are likely to do, then we may see them take the "hot potato" and bad press since they will have achieved their primary goal.

Paul Ryan seemed all to giddy about how close they are to being able to seriously cut and curtail Medicaid.

Yeah, it depends on who we're talking about. Paul Ryan has such a boner for cutting Medicaid that he would probably sacrifice the House majority to achieve it. Not all of the House Republicans feel that way though.

Scortius

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1562 on: March 14, 2017, 03:09:57 PM »
I think Scortius is right Republicans probably do hope this bill dies and it works out in such a way that they can continue to bash Obama and Democrats. This might help keep them from hemorrhaging seats in the house and senate over the next couple of elections.

But if their end goal is in fact to hammer Medicaid like the new bill or its next incarnation are likely to do, then we may see them take the "hot potato" and bad press since they will have achieved their primary goal.

Paul Ryan seemed all to giddy about how close they are to being able to seriously cut and curtail Medicaid.

Yeah, it depends on who we're talking about. Paul Ryan has such a boner for cutting Medicaid that he would probably sacrifice the House majority to achieve it. Not all of the House Republicans feel that way though.

Yes, I agree.  I was talking specifically about the Senate, not the House.  House districting allows for the election of people who are much more ideologically extreme.  Many of them will be happy to 'slash and burn'.  Conversely, the senators must answer to the entire state population and will have a more difficult time toeing the line.

thenextguy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1563 on: March 14, 2017, 03:13:37 PM »
I think Scortius is right Republicans probably do hope this bill dies and it works out in such a way that they can continue to bash Obama and Democrats. This might help keep them from hemorrhaging seats in the house and senate over the next couple of elections.

But if their end goal is in fact to hammer Medicaid like the new bill or its next incarnation are likely to do, then we may see them take the "hot potato" and bad press since they will have achieved their primary goal.

Paul Ryan seemed all to giddy about how close they are to being able to seriously cut and curtail Medicaid.

Yeah, it depends on who we're talking about. Paul Ryan has such a boner for cutting Medicaid that he would probably sacrifice the House majority to achieve it. Not all of the House Republicans feel that way though.

Yes, I agree.  I was talking specifically about the Senate, not the House.  House districting allows for the election of people who are much more ideologically extreme.  Many of them will be happy to 'slash and burn'.  Conversely, the senators must answer to the entire state population and will have a more difficult time toeing the line.

Oh absolutely. I agree. I was even saying that I'm suspect if even the House is going to be on board with this. Paul Ryan doesn't scream and shout, but he has some extreme policy ideas. Right after Trump got elected he starting talking about how they would use the chance to cut Medicare. Not just Medicaid, Medicare! He was basically shut down by his own party on that.

Bateaux

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1564 on: March 14, 2017, 03:16:17 PM »
This bill is going to fail.  The ACA is going to stand and by the time the midterm elections roll around the Republicans are going to blame the Democrats for the bills failure.   The average Trump voter hasn't a clue about what's in the Ryan plan.  They will react to the talking heads on Fox and vote for their sitting Republican congressman.  Only if there if there is record turnout of Democratic voters will anything change.  Unfortunately your average Democrat doesn't care enough to show up on election day. If they would we'd have a chance for single payer health care coverage
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 03:50:17 PM by Bateaux »
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sol

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1565 on: March 14, 2017, 03:25:59 PM »
Not just Medicaid, Medicare! He was basically shut down by his own party on that.

I agree that Medicare and social security are also in the crosshairs.  They only chose Medicaid first because it's politically less costly to screw over poor peope than to screw over old people.  But just you wait.

This bill is going to fail.

No way.  Some version of it will definitely pass.  At the very least they'll repeal the individual mandate penalty and all of the taxes on rich people and ignore everything else.  But why would they ignore it when they can also dismantle Medicaid and get new abortion restrictions passed at the same time?

This bill is a conservative wet dream.  If the freedom caucus doesn't like the subsidies, they'll just leave that portion out of it and pass everything else, and declare victory.  They'll blame democrats for the GOP being unable to alter the obamacare subsidies, but by removing the taxes they'll guarantee huge deficits which they'll then blame on the (newly broken) ACA. 

That plan gives conservatives what they really want (tax breaks for the rich) and doesn't yank health insurance away from their constituents (unless they also gut Medicaid), while absolving them of all blame and still preserving their argument that the ACA is a failing disaster that they can campaign against. 
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 04:09:50 PM by sol »

Scortius

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1566 on: March 14, 2017, 03:27:50 PM »
This bill is going to fail.  The ACA is going to stand andd by the time the midterm elections roll around the Republicans are going to blame the Democrats for the bills failure.   The average Trump voter hasn't a clue about what's in the Ryan plan.  They will react to the talking heads on Fox and vote for their sitting Republican congressman.  Only if there is there is record turnout of Democratic voters will anything change.  Unfortunately your average Democrat doesn't care enough to show up on election day. If they would we'd have a chance for single payer health care coverage

Hell, I half hope that the Democrats start bluffing that they will let the bill through just to see if the Republicans scramble to find ways to keep it from moving forward.


radram

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1568 on: March 14, 2017, 04:13:49 PM »
This bill is going to fail.  The ACA is going to stand andd by the time the midterm elections roll around the Republicans are going to blame the Democrats for the bills failure.   The average Trump voter hasn't a clue about what's in the Ryan plan.  They will react to the talking heads on Fox and vote for their sitting Republican congressman.  Only if there is there is record turnout of Democratic voters will anything change.  Unfortunately your average Democrat doesn't care enough to show up on election day. If they would we'd have a chance for single payer health care coverage

Hell, I half hope that the Democrats start bluffing that they will let the bill through just to see if the Republicans scramble to find ways to keep it from moving forward.
Again, it is a bill that needs 0 democrats for passing under reconciliation rules. There is no "bluff", and in fact does not involve a single democrat AT ALL. It is filibusterer proof. They can not stop it. They can not prevent a vote. They can watch.  All they could do to influence the bill is vote yes

Have you read or seen ANYTHING that is saying the democrats have ANYTHING to do with this bill. I would love to read it.

EnjoyIt

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1569 on: March 14, 2017, 04:36:15 PM »

No way.  Some version of it will definitely pass.  At the very least they'll repeal the individual mandate penalty and all of the taxes on rich people and ignore everything else.  But why would they ignore it when they can also dismantle Medicaid and get new abortion restrictions passed at the same time?

This bill is a conservative wet dream.  If the freedom caucus doesn't like the subsidies, they'll just leave that portion out of it and pass everything else, and declare victory.  They'll blame democrats for the GOP being unable to alter the obamacare subsidies, but by removing the taxes they'll guarantee huge deficits which they'll then blame on the (newly broken) ACA. 

That plan gives conservatives what they really want (tax breaks for the rich) and doesn't yank health insurance away from their constituents (unless they also gut Medicaid), while absolving them of all blame and still preserving their argument that the ACA is a failing disaster that they can campaign against.

Sol,
For once I agree with you on this subject.  Some form of this bill will pass.  The only thing I will disagree is that the only goal for republicans are rich.  Remember only 1% maybe more of the US is "rich"  The rest of the voting republicans want to decrease their own taxes.  By decreasing their own taxes they inadvertently also decrease the taxes on the rich.  You can not have one without the other.

I too would hate to see increased abortion regulation in this bill.  Too bad the republican politicians are self serving asshats.  Unfortunately the democrats are equally self serving and asshats.

Scortius

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1570 on: March 14, 2017, 04:42:27 PM »
This bill is going to fail.  The ACA is going to stand andd by the time the midterm elections roll around the Republicans are going to blame the Democrats for the bills failure.   The average Trump voter hasn't a clue about what's in the Ryan plan.  They will react to the talking heads on Fox and vote for their sitting Republican congressman.  Only if there is there is record turnout of Democratic voters will anything change.  Unfortunately your average Democrat doesn't care enough to show up on election day. If they would we'd have a chance for single payer health care coverage

Hell, I half hope that the Democrats start bluffing that they will let the bill through just to see if the Republicans scramble to find ways to keep it from moving forward.
Again, it is a bill that needs 0 democrats for passing under reconciliation rules. There is no "bluff", and in fact does not involve a single democrat AT ALL. It is filibusterer proof. They can not stop it. They can not prevent a vote. They can watch.  All they could do to influence the bill is vote yes

Have you read or seen ANYTHING that is saying the democrats have ANYTHING to do with this bill. I would love to read it.

No, that's a good point.  I guess what I'm thinking is that I see the Republicans pushing changes through, but then turning around and blaming the Democrats when the new plan doesn't do what people think it will.  I feel that if the Republicans are going to do this, they need to own the bill, just like how the Democrats owned the ACA.  Instead I see the Republicans saying, "well, we wanted to do more, but the Democrats wouldn't let us, so it's still their fault". 

protostache

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1571 on: March 14, 2017, 04:54:34 PM »
Not just Medicaid, Medicare! He was basically shut down by his own party on that.

I agree that Medicare and social security are also in the crosshairs.  They only chose Medicaid first because it's politically less costly to screw over poor peope than to screw over old people.  But just you wait.

This bill is going to fail.

No way.  Some version of it will definitely pass.  At the very least they'll repeal the individual mandate penalty and all of the taxes on rich people and ignore everything else.  But why would they ignore it when they can also dismantle Medicaid and get new abortion restrictions passed at the same time?

This bill is a conservative wet dream.  If the freedom caucus doesn't like the subsidies, they'll just leave that portion out of it and pass everything else, and declare victory.  They'll blame democrats for the GOP being unable to alter the obamacare subsidies, but by removing the taxes they'll guarantee huge deficits which they'll then blame on the (newly broken) ACA. 

That plan gives conservatives what they really want (tax breaks for the rich) and doesn't yank health insurance away from their constituents (unless they also gut Medicaid), while absolving them of all blame and still preserving their argument that the ACA is a failing disaster that they can campaign against.

If they repeal the taxes without significantly modifying the subsidies they will almost certainly increase the deficit, which means they either have to pass a 60 vote cloture (which they can't do) or they have to include a 10 year sunset on the tax repeal portion. They can't just completely cut the subsidies, otherwise the centrists won't vote for it in either house.

desertadapted

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1572 on: March 14, 2017, 05:11:30 PM »
My suggestion/plea to the R’s (because they desperately want to hear it):  (1) scrap the AHCA; (2) keep the ACA in its entirety but scrap the mandate and replace it with a requirement of continuous coverage (subsidized as under current law), with a 200-300% penalty to get insurance if it lapses and you try to get insurance  while ill (or a smaller penalty if healthy). 

While the continuous coverage requirement may be less optimal than the mandate, the penalty for  the mandate isn’t all that substantial anyway and needs fixed.  You get your personal freedom (freedom!!!), and personal responsibility fix (stop being poor!), while keeping fundamental fairness for those less fortunate. And I bet you’d get D votes.   

Oh, and do some meaningless optical tinkering like preventing PP from getting money for abortions (who cares if it’s already the law?), to provide the required red meat.

sol

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1573 on: March 14, 2017, 06:27:48 PM »
If they repeal the taxes without significantly modifying the subsidies they will almost certainly increase the deficit, which means they either have to pass a 60 vote cloture (which they can't do) or they have to include a 10 year sunset on the tax repeal portion.

Why not?  This is precisely how the Republicans passed the "Bush tax cuts" immediately after our last Republican president took office in 2001.  They knew it would balloon deficits, but why would they care?  Tax cuts for the rich under the new administration!

History rhymes, they say.  Next up should be a new middle eastern war.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 06:39:43 PM by sol »

Iplawyer

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1574 on: March 14, 2017, 08:55:53 PM »

No way.  Some version of it will definitely pass.  At the very least they'll repeal the individual mandate penalty and all of the taxes on rich people and ignore everything else.  But why would they ignore it when they can also dismantle Medicaid and get new abortion restrictions passed at the same time?

This bill is a conservative wet dream.  If the freedom caucus doesn't like the subsidies, they'll just leave that portion out of it and pass everything else, and declare victory.  They'll blame democrats for the GOP being unable to alter the obamacare subsidies, but by removing the taxes they'll guarantee huge deficits which they'll then blame on the (newly broken) ACA. 

That plan gives conservatives what they really want (tax breaks for the rich) and doesn't yank health insurance away from their constituents (unless they also gut Medicaid), while absolving them of all blame and still preserving their argument that the ACA is a failing disaster that they can campaign against.

Sol,
For once I agree with you on this subject.  Some form of this bill will pass.  The only thing I will disagree is that the only goal for republicans are rich.  Remember only 1% maybe more of the US is "rich"  The rest of the voting republicans want to decrease their own taxes.  By decreasing their own taxes they inadvertently also decrease the taxes on the rich.  You can not have one without the other.

I too would hate to see increased abortion regulation in this bill.  Too bad the republican politicians are self serving asshats.  Unfortunately the democrats are equally self serving and asshats.

EnjoyIt - you are so wrong.  The taxes that will be repealed that are money makers are the 1% the people making over $200K have to pay extra in Medicare tax and the almost 4% in Medicare tax those making over $250K in capital gains a year have to pay in addition to the capital gains tax. 

I call people in that range rich.  Don't you?  So they are only giving tax breaks to the rich.  Period. 

EnjoyIt

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1575 on: March 14, 2017, 09:30:15 PM »

EnjoyIt - you are so wrong.  The taxes that will be repealed that are money makers are the 1% the people making over $200K have to pay extra in Medicare tax and the almost 4% in Medicare tax those making over $250K in capital gains a year have to pay in addition to the capital gains tax. 

I call people in that range rich.  Don't you?  So they are only giving tax breaks to the rich.  Period.

You are correct the ACA tax hit families making more than $250k/yr.  I do not think they are rich though.  They are comfortable, but definitely not rich.  They are also are not the 1% which people seam to think are rich.  People living in very high cost of living areas can make $250k/yr and live non-luxurious lifestyles because of the high taxes and expensive housing.

But all in all you are correct and I was wrong.  The cuts are helping the higher income earners.

Classical_Liberal

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1576 on: March 15, 2017, 04:19:38 AM »

EnjoyIt - you are so wrong.  The taxes that will be repealed that are money makers are the 1% the people making over $200K have to pay extra in Medicare tax and the almost 4% in Medicare tax those making over $250K in capital gains a year have to pay in addition to the capital gains tax. 

I call people in that range rich.  Don't you?  So they are only giving tax breaks to the rich.  Period.

You are correct the ACA tax hit families making more than $250k/yr.  I do not think they are rich though.  They are comfortable, but definitely not rich.  They are also are not the 1% which people seam to think are rich.  People living in very high cost of living areas can make $250k/yr and live non-luxurious lifestyles because of the high taxes and expensive housing.

But all in all you are correct and I was wrong.  The cuts are helping the higher income earners.

What would you consider rich?  Top 10%? Top 5%?  250K is above top 5% almost everywhere in the country.  Look here to see specifics.

AdrianC

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1577 on: March 15, 2017, 06:31:21 AM »
The taxes that will be repealed that are money makers are the 1% the people making over $200K have to pay extra in Medicare tax and the almost 4% in Medicare tax those making over $250K in capital gains a year have to pay in addition to the capital gains tax. 

I call people in that range rich.  Don't you?  So they are only giving tax breaks to the rich.  Period.

An additional 0.9 percent payroll tax on earnings and a 3.8 percent tax on net investment income (NII) for individuals with incomes exceeding $200,000 and couples with incomes exceeding $250,000.

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-tax-changes-did-affordable-care-act-make

Some might see it as a repeal of a tax increase...

Funny, all this talk claiming the "rich" are somehow "stealing" from the "poor". A family making $250K is paying a serious amount in taxes. As it should be. But we shouldn't then claim they are "stealing" from the poor.

Is "rich" based on income? Should be on net worth, but that's hard to determine publicly, so we use income as a shortcut. Doesn't always work.


protostache

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1578 on: March 15, 2017, 07:03:18 AM »
If they repeal the taxes without significantly modifying the subsidies they will almost certainly increase the deficit, which means they either have to pass a 60 vote cloture (which they can't do) or they have to include a 10 year sunset on the tax repeal portion.

Why not?  This is precisely how the Republicans passed the "Bush tax cuts" immediately after our last Republican president took office in 2001.  They knew it would balloon deficits, but why would they care?  Tax cuts for the rich under the new administration!

History rhymes, they say.  Next up should be a new middle eastern war.

They were passed in 2001 with a 10 year sunset provision set to expire in 2010. That year after GOP obstruction of any other legislation Congress passed a 2 year extension and then after more GOP obstruction Congress passed the American Taxpayer Relief Act in 2012 and President Obama signed it on January 2nd 2013. This made the cuts permanent for everyone making less than $400k/year.

The GOP does not want to give the Democrats the opportunity for rhyming obstructionism in 2027. They want these cuts to be permanent forever more so they're going to do their level best to pass them without a sunset provision.

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1579 on: March 15, 2017, 09:19:47 AM »
The GOP heath care plan: The more you need, the less you get
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKk4uwFw3oM

Exflyboy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1580 on: March 15, 2017, 09:27:27 AM »
The taxes that will be repealed that are money makers are the 1% the people making over $200K have to pay extra in Medicare tax and the almost 4% in Medicare tax those making over $250K in capital gains a year have to pay in addition to the capital gains tax. 

I call people in that range rich.  Don't you?  So they are only giving tax breaks to the rich.  Period.

An additional 0.9 percent payroll tax on earnings and a 3.8 percent tax on net investment income (NII) for individuals with incomes exceeding $200,000 and couples with incomes exceeding $250,000.

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-tax-changes-did-affordable-care-act-make

Some might see it as a repeal of a tax increase...

Funny, all this talk claiming the "rich" are somehow "stealing" from the "poor". A family making $250K is paying a serious amount in taxes. As it should be. But we shouldn't then claim they are "stealing" from the poor.

Is "rich" based on income? Should be on net worth, but that's hard to determine publicly, so we use income as a shortcut. Doesn't always work.

thenextguy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1581 on: March 15, 2017, 09:29:26 AM »
The GOP heath care plan: The more you need, the less you get
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKk4uwFw3oM

If you're Paul Ryan, that's a feature, not a bug.

Schaefer Light

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1582 on: March 15, 2017, 10:48:35 AM »
The GOP heath care plan: The more you need, the less you get
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKk4uwFw3oM

The more health care you consume, the more you should pay.  That's how it works for everything else.  Now should an older person pay 500% more?  I don't know enough about health care spending to answer that.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 10:51:47 AM by Schaefer Light »

the_fixer

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1583 on: March 15, 2017, 11:16:39 AM »
Older people cost more and use more but there is a good chance that they have paid insurance premiums for most of their life even when they were low cost and did not use much.

For example I have had good health insurance for myself and my wife since we were 19 & 20 years old and we are now in our mid 40's.

Most years I only go to the doctor for my checkup and use nothing else
My wife has asthma and uses a inhaler and goes to her yearly doctor visit and that is pretty much it

We pay a significant amount of money into insurance per year and do not use much

When we get older we will use more and that is to be expected.

Families cost more to insure yet my wife and I have always paid the same as people with 5 kids how is that fair?

The people that have had horrible health issues paid the same amount that we paid.

Is that not the point of group insurance that some people will cost more some will cost less but the group shoulders the cost?

« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 11:18:46 AM by the_fixer »

jim555

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1584 on: March 15, 2017, 12:01:04 PM »
Some states have a pure community rating for health insurance so age is not considered.  Maybe the oldsters can move to NY or VT to maximize their $4,000.

waltworks

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1585 on: March 15, 2017, 12:29:56 PM »
The more health care you consume, the more you should pay.  That's how it works for everything else.  Now should an older person pay 500% more?  I don't know enough about health care spending to answer that.

Not at all. You don't pay for your use of the roads by how much you drive, you don't pay for the military by how much you need defending, you don't pay less for our justice system if you're never going to be in court or charged with a crime, etc etc.

-W

bogart

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1586 on: March 15, 2017, 12:55:00 PM »
The more health care you consume, the more you should pay.  That's how it works for everything else.  Now should an older person pay 500% more?  I don't know enough about health care spending to answer that.

Not at all. You don't pay for your use of the roads by how much you drive, you don't pay for the military by how much you need defending, you don't pay less for our justice system if you're never going to be in court or charged with a crime, etc etc.

-W

Also worth noting that in general, the more health care you need, the less able you are to work.  Obviously that's a dramatic oversimplification and equally obviously, in some cases it's possible to plan ahead (save, invest) in ways that compensate for inability to generate earned income, but all the same. 

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1587 on: March 15, 2017, 12:55:32 PM »
The more health care you consume, the more you should pay.  That's how it works for everything else.  Now should an older person pay 500% more?  I don't know enough about health care spending to answer that.

Not at all. You don't pay for your use of the roads by how much you drive, you don't pay for the military by how much you need defending, you don't pay less for our justice system if you're never going to be in court or charged with a crime, etc etc.

-W

Minor quibble: gas taxes are intended to tie amount paid to amount of driving (and thus, road use). It's imperfect, but that's the intent.
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/digging-out-of-a-hole/

sol

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1588 on: March 15, 2017, 01:07:57 PM »
The more health care you consume, the more you should pay.  That's how it works for everything else.  Now should an older person pay 500% more?  I don't know enough about health care spending to answer that.

Not at all. You don't pay for your use of the roads by how much you drive, you don't pay for the military by how much you need defending, you don't pay less for our justice system if you're never going to be in court or charged with a crime, etc etc.

-W

Minor quibble: gas taxes are intended to tie amount paid to amount of driving (and thus, road use). It's imperfect, but that's the intent.

Walt's argument extends to all facets of government, though.  Your partial exception only proves the general rule.

Your taxes support all of the following, regardless of how much of each service you utilize, or whether you utilize it at all:

Public roads and highways
Public education
National security and intelligence agencies
Unemployment insurance
Disability insurance
Food safety
Scientific research and development
Your local police
Your local firefighters
The internet
Clean air and water
International trade agreements
WIC/TANF
Drug and alcohol treatment programs
Needle exchanges
Long term incarceration costs
Early childhood development screening
The power grid
The international space station and interplanetary robots
Congressional salaries
The US military and all of its toys

I could go on, but so can everyone else.  The point is that government exists for the express purpose of providing these services to ALL Americans, regardless of their individual need or how much they pay. 

Why should basic healthcare be any different?  In fact, it seems kind of dumb that we offer everyone food safety and clean water, to protect their health, and then let them die of preventable diseases just to protect corporate profits.  Fuck that noise, man.  Let's get this fixed.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 01:10:33 PM by sol »

Rocket

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1589 on: March 15, 2017, 01:22:18 PM »
Yes the Republicans have 52 votes for reconciliation which means that the Dems can challenge everything in the new law.  If the change doesnt directly affect the Fed Budget it wont pass.  The senate parliamentarian will then rule.  A lot of the AHCA wont pass the affects Fed budget requirement.  Its going to be messy.  This is my understanding of reconciliation at the moment.

This bill is going to fail.  The ACA is going to stand andd by the time the midterm elections roll around the Republicans are going to blame the Democrats for the bills failure.   The average Trump voter hasn't a clue about what's in the Ryan plan.  They will react to the talking heads on Fox and vote for their sitting Republican congressman.  Only if there is there is record turnout of Democratic voters will anything change.  Unfortunately your average Democrat doesn't care enough to show up on election day. If they would we'd have a chance for single payer health care coverage

Hell, I half hope that the Democrats start bluffing that they will let the bill through just to see if the Republicans scramble to find ways to keep it from moving forward.
Again, it is a bill that needs 0 democrats for passing under reconciliation rules. There is no "bluff", and in fact does not involve a single democrat AT ALL. It is filibusterer proof. They can not stop it. They can not prevent a vote. They can watch.  All they could do to influence the bill is vote yes

Have you read or seen ANYTHING that is saying the democrats have ANYTHING to do with this bill. I would love to read it.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 01:26:50 PM by Rocket »

Schaefer Light

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1590 on: March 15, 2017, 02:10:14 PM »
The more health care you consume, the more you should pay.  That's how it works for everything else.  Now should an older person pay 500% more?  I don't know enough about health care spending to answer that.

Not at all. You don't pay for your use of the roads by how much you drive, you don't pay for the military by how much you need defending, you don't pay less for our justice system if you're never going to be in court or charged with a crime, etc etc.

-W

I wasn't talking about things the government provides.  I was talking about goods and services that buyers purchase directly from sellers.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 02:13:27 PM by Schaefer Light »

skeinwinder

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1591 on: March 15, 2017, 02:26:05 PM »
"A 64-year-old making $26,500 a year would pay around $1,700 in premiums right now. Under the proposed changes, that person would pay $14,600, more than eight times more.

One big reason for that is that the new health care bill would change the gap between what young and old people will pay for their premiums. Currently, insurers can charge older enrollees three times what they charge someone younger. The Republican plan would up that from 3-to-1 to 5-to-1."

That's 14,600 for ONE 64yo. 64yo married couple? Double that. Early retired 64 yo with 57yo spouse and kids still in college? Oy.

Source:NPRhttp://www.npr.org/2017/03/15/520181569/5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan

waltworks

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1592 on: March 15, 2017, 04:02:17 PM »
I wasn't talking about things the government provides.  I was talking about goods and services that buyers purchase directly from sellers.

That's not the case for most people who either are covered through an employer, or are covered by any of the various government health care programs, though. Which is almost everyone.

-W

radram

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1593 on: March 15, 2017, 06:15:53 PM »
Yes the Republicans have 52 votes for reconciliation which means that the Dems can challenge everything in the new law.
Actually, the EXACT OPPOSITE is true in that the Dem's can challenge NOTHING.

If the change doesnt directly affect the Fed Budget it wont pass. 
I am not sure what you mean here. If you mean it needs to be budget neutral, then it can pass without the threat of filibuster under reconciliation. If it is NOT budget neutral, then it could still pass without Dem support, but it would also be possible, if not probable, that the Dem's would invoke the filibuster, preventing the vote from happening, since reconciliation rules would not apply.

A lot of the AHCA wont pass the affects Fed budget requirement. 
The AHCA bill has NOTHING in it that could not be passed with just the republicans using reconciliation. The phase 2 and phase 3 parts of the republican plan will very likely require more than just reconciliation, since they also want to change rules that do not fall under reconciliation. That might indeed get messy.



jim555

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1594 on: March 15, 2017, 06:31:34 PM »
Yes the Republicans have 52 votes for reconciliation which means that the Dems can challenge everything in the new law.
Actually, the EXACT OPPOSITE is true in that the Dem's can challenge NOTHING.
The only thing they can do is raise a procedural objection to a provision violating the Byrd Rule:

Any senator may raise a procedural objection to a provision believed to be extraneous, which will then be ruled on by the Presiding Officer, customarily on the advice of the Senate Parliamentarian. A vote of 60 senators is required to overturn the ruling. The Presiding Officer need not necessarily follow the advice of the Parliamentarian, and the Parliamentarian can be replaced by the Senate Majority Leader.[13] The Vice President as President of the Senate can overrule the parliamentarian, but this has not been done since 1975.

Since the Presiding Officer is Pence he will ignore the Parliamentarian and quash the objection.

Exflyboy

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1595 on: March 15, 2017, 08:29:28 PM »
"A 64-year-old making $26,500 a year would pay around $1,700 in premiums right now. Under the proposed changes, that person would pay $14,600, more than eight times more.

One big reason for that is that the new health care bill would change the gap between what young and old people will pay for their premiums. Currently, insurers can charge older enrollees three times what they charge someone younger. The Republican plan would up that from 3-to-1 to 5-to-1."

That's 14,600 for ONE 64yo. 64yo married couple? Double that. Early retired 64 yo with 57yo spouse and kids still in college? Oy.

Source:NPRhttp://www.npr.org/2017/03/15/520181569/5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan

Yes but at least the Government won't be telling said 64 year old he HAS to buy Health insurance.. So thats OK then!


calimom

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1596 on: March 15, 2017, 09:09:00 PM »
"A 64-year-old making $26,500 a year would pay around $1,700 in premiums right now. Under the proposed changes, that person would pay $14,600, more than eight times more.

One big reason for that is that the new health care bill would change the gap between what young and old people will pay for their premiums. Currently, insurers can charge older enrollees three times what they charge someone younger. The Republican plan would up that from 3-to-1 to 5-to-1."

That's 14,600 for ONE 64yo. 64yo married couple? Double that. Early retired 64 yo with 57yo spouse and kids still in college? Oy.

Source:NPRhttp://www.npr.org/2017/03/15/520181569/5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan

Yes but at least the Government won't be telling said 64 year old he HAS to buy Health insurance.. So thats OK then!

We certainly can't have the Republicans living in a NANNY STATE!! I mean, my god. We should at least attempt SOME illusion of Wild West butchness.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1597 on: March 16, 2017, 04:18:22 AM »
The more health care you consume, the more you should pay.  That's how it works for everything else.  Now should an older person pay 500% more?  I don't know enough about health care spending to answer that.

Not at all. You don't pay for your use of the roads by how much you drive, you don't pay for the military by how much you need defending, you don't pay less for our justice system if you're never going to be in court or charged with a crime, etc etc.

-W

Minor quibble: gas taxes are intended to tie amount paid to amount of driving (and thus, road use). It's imperfect, but that's the intent.

Walt's argument extends to all facets of government, though.  Your partial exception only proves the general rule.

Your taxes support all of the following, regardless of how much of each service you utilize, or whether you utilize it at all:

..........

Why should basic healthcare be any different?  In fact, it seems kind of dumb that we offer everyone food safety and clean water, to protect their health, and then let them die of preventable diseases just to protect corporate profits.  Fuck that noise, man.  Let's get this fixed.
I think that is still a conversation America is having - while most people support life-saving healthcare for all (which is why emergency rooms will still take someone who can't pay), and many may agree that basic healthcare could be held to the same need and provide the same benefits to the country as roads and the military, not everyone is convinced that health insurance for everyone provides benefits to the greater good that are worth the price.
Give me one fine day of plain sailing weather and I can mess up anything.

MustacheMathTM

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1598 on: March 16, 2017, 04:20:01 AM »
"A 64-year-old making $26,500 a year would pay around $1,700 in premiums right now. Under the proposed changes, that person would pay $14,600, more than eight times more.

One big reason for that is that the new health care bill would change the gap between what young and old people will pay for their premiums. Currently, insurers can charge older enrollees three times what they charge someone younger. The Republican plan would up that from 3-to-1 to 5-to-1."

That's 14,600 for ONE 64yo. 64yo married couple? Double that. Early retired 64 yo with 57yo spouse and kids still in college? Oy.

Source:NPRhttp://www.npr.org/2017/03/15/520181569/5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan

Yes but at least the Government won't be telling said 64 year old he HAS to buy Health insurance.. So thats OK then!

We certainly can't have the Republicans living in a NANNY STATE!! I mean, my god. We should at least attempt SOME illusion of Wild West butchness.
Funny how all those blue states need the money from the red states to pay for all the programs they want to implement. :D
Give me one fine day of plain sailing weather and I can mess up anything.

MustacheMathTM

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Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #1599 on: March 16, 2017, 05:07:50 AM »
"A 64-year-old making $26,500 a year would pay around $1,700 in premiums right now. Under the proposed changes, that person would pay $14,600, more than eight times more.

One big reason for that is that the new health care bill would change the gap between what young and old people will pay for their premiums. Currently, insurers can charge older enrollees three times what they charge someone younger. The Republican plan would up that from 3-to-1 to 5-to-1."

That's 14,600 for ONE 64yo. 64yo married couple? Double that. Early retired 64 yo with 57yo spouse and kids still in college? Oy.

Source:NPRhttp://www.npr.org/2017/03/15/520181569/5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan

Yes but at least the Government won't be telling said 64 year old he HAS to buy Health insurance.. So thats OK then!

We certainly can't have the Republicans living in a NANNY STATE!! I mean, my god. We should at least attempt SOME illusion of Wild West butchness.
Funny how all those blue states need the money from the red states to pay for all the programs they want to implement. :D
Funny how Republicans are happy to require hospitals to provide free emergency care to the uninsured while refusing to reimburse them for providing that care (EMTALA) but not happy to require individuals to have insurance which would reimburse the hospitals.
Be frugal and industrious, and you will be free (Ben Franklin)