.....and all this adds up to negligible effects to the amount of carbon in the atmosphere to date. Pending a miracle (fusion, immediate removal of all gas/diesel vehicles) we will see ever increasing amounts of carbon in the atmosphere and the corresponding effects.
Well that sort of depends on your definition of negligible! I was having this same conversation with someone the other day and I've become downright optimistic about climate emissions at least as far as electrical generation goes...
As for the amount of electricity produced by renewables and whether the climate impact "matters," there are a couple ways of looking at it. First, to use the US as an example, the fraction of renewables (Wind/Water/Solar) in the overall electric mix has been growing at around .75% per year for a decade (from like 6% to 14%, sth like that). USA generation is like 4,000 TWH. So compared to what we were doing previously, "new" renewables have generated like 4800 TWH in the past 10 years. Production of 4800 TWH from coal fired generation would produce ~5b tons of CO2. And current global emissions are around 10b tons/yr, so whatever "carbon budget" you accept, new renewables in the USA in the past 10 years have earned us an extra 6 months. That's not a lot, but it's not nothing, and it's only from one foot-dragging coal burnin crap country which is hardly even trying.
Or to put it a different way, 10 years ago carbon emissions were rising very rapidly. If you accept a carbon budget of, say, 1000 billion tons, it looked like we were going to crack through the budget in ~2048. Now, in 2016, it looks like emissions are at peak. World emissions have been flat for two years and there is good reason they will remain flat at close to 10b tons in 2015-16. At the present rate of emissions we have 42 years left before we hit 1000 billion tons. So compared to what things looked like a decade ago, we've gained a decade to get our shit together. That's not nothing!
Too little too late. The IPPC consensus is that atmospheric CO2 at 350 ppm is the threshold for major change - we are already at 390 ppm and rising at 2 ppm per year. And if methane is added then total current carbon levels are about 435 ppm Even if all carbon inputs stopped immediately the earth's average temperature would continue to rise for an estimated century or so.
So hurray for us , hurray for us!! We are starting to bend the curve. Yea, great. As I said, I've been attending these conferences for a decade and a half and we've blown by all the previous estimates. To seriously make a difference the US would have to immediately stop all production of carbon-fuel cars and power plants and let those run the course of life span.
I don't know where your data comes from - but the latest available report on carbon inputs in the U.S. still show us increasing 1% a year -- and the primary reason it is not greater is because of a very modest GDP increase during the recent past.
http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/pdf/2014_co2analysis.pdfSo we are making some progress -- but really, it is not making dent in the issues. China's estimates for the amount of coal reduction have proved unreliable and or downright false
BEIJING —
China, the world’s leading emitter of greenhouse gases from coal, has been burning up to 17 percent more coal a year than the government previously disclosed, according to newly released data. The finding could complicate the already difficult efforts to limit global warming.Then wait as all those new drivers in China and India come on-line.
Then there are practicalities. Wind and solar work great - when the wind blows and when the sun shines. On the west coast we have a glut of power now during the day -- that cannot be stored. Sure - maybe in a decade or two we will make some advances, and I would agree that is a great thing. But it is not going to help places like Norfolk, VA or the Florida coast, which is already experiencing sea level rise problems and infrastructure.
It's going to get worse. A lot worse. So yea, we'll make some advances that may help the planet cool back down in 150 - 300 years. But in my lifetime, your lifetime, your kids, and their grandkids. Nope. We screwed the pooch and will be paying for it in displacement, infrastructure costs, environmental degradation, and affected lives.
