What Black Swan Events Occurred To You?

[John Galt incarnate!]

I've thought the following black swan events could occur.

1. An asteroid could strike Earth resulting in the death of 3-4 billion people.

2. Terrorists could detonate a thermonuclear bomb  in a major city such as Paris, New York City, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, or London.

3. Terrorists could attack a major city with a radiation weapon rendering it uninhabitable..

4. Terrorists could poison the water supply for major cities.


I know about the bubonic plague and "Spanish flu" but I've not thought a similarly widespread pandemic could reoccur.

[soccerluvof4]

I've thought the following black swan events could occur.

1. An asteroid could strike Earth resulting in the death of 3-4 billion people.

2. Terrorists could detonate a thermonuclear bomb  in a major city such as Paris, New York City, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, or London.

3. Terrorists could attack a major city with a radiation weapon rendering it uninhabitable..

4. Terrorists could poison the water supply for major cities.


I know about the bubonic plague and "Spanish flu" but I've not thought a similarly widespread pandemic could reoccur.

Often thought about our water supply being contaminated

Terrorists attacking by small plane or numerous bombs a huge sporting arena

Pandemic like we have now or being released intentionally by terrorists or a Goverment trying to destroy us.

Some major Cyber-attack spontaneously on major network structures like the airlines , banking systems etc..

Dont quote me on this but I believe we have in place ways to blowup asteroids before they can get to close to earth.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

I've thought the following black swan events could occur.

1. An asteroid could strike Earth resulting in the death of 3-4 billion people.

2. Terrorists could detonate a thermonuclear bomb  in a major city such as Paris, New York City, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, or London.

3. Terrorists could attack a major city with a radiation weapon rendering it uninhabitable..

4. Terrorists could poison the water supply for major cities.


I know about the bubonic plague and "Spanish flu" but I've not thought a similarly widespread pandemic could reoccur.

Often thought about our water supply being contaminated

Terrorists attacking by small plane or numerous bombs a huge sporting arena

Pandemic like we have now or being released intentionally by terrorists or a Goverment trying to destroy us.

Some major Cyber-attack spontaneously on major network structures like the airlines , banking systems etc..

Dont quote me on this but I believe we have in place ways to blowup asteroids before they can get to close to earth.

Um.... nope.

The little ones would be near impossible to hit and stop, and the large ones are..... bigger than you think

https://www.boredpanda.com/size-of-asteroids-alvaro-gracia-montoya/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic

Here's a nice near miss that wasn't that long ago. They didn't see it. Even if they did, it was more than 300 feet across and travelling fairly fast.....

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/asteroid-nasa-near-miss-earth-emails-2019-ok-a9113846.html

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

When I was a kid in Seattle, Mt St Helens happened. Stuff related to that happened.

A while ago Christchurch, NZ fell down from earthquakes while I was in it. Stuff related to that happened.

Now we're in a frickin global pandemic and stuff related to that is happening.

Not sure I believe in 'black swan events' anymore. Anything can happen anytime. I'm sooooo going full doomsday prepper after the lockdown.

[Michael in ABQ]

I've thought the following black swan events could occur.

1. An asteroid could strike Earth resulting in the death of 3-4 billion people.

2. Terrorists could detonate a thermonuclear bomb  in a major city such as Paris, New York City, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, or London.

3. Terrorists could attack a major city with a radiation weapon rendering it uninhabitable..

4. Terrorists could poison the water supply for major cities.


I know about the bubonic plague and "Spanish flu" but I've not thought a similarly widespread pandemic could reoccur.

Dont quote me on this but I believe we have in place ways to blowup asteroids before they can get to close to earth.

Quoted, and nope. It takes months if not years to get anything launched into space and even then mostly to orbits within 100 - 25,000 miles. I seriously doubt we could do much unless we knew it was coming years out. It doesn't take a very large asteroid to create the same effect as a nuclear bomb. The one that exploded over Russia 7 years ago was about half a megaton equivalent and was only about the size of a small office building - around 60-70 feet in diameter. But the last one larger than that was over a hundred years earlier - and both hit relatively unpopulated areas in Russia. So the odds of one hitting a major metro area are quite small - but it could definitely be as devastating as a nuclear bomb.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor


I think some sort of large-scale cyber attack or computer virus that specifically targeted the financial industry would be a pretty devastating black swan event. After all, what is most of our wealth but some information on a Vanguard computer system? What would happen if all of that became corrupted - or the electronic links between banks where billions flow back and forth every day could no longer be trusted?

Also, a large solar flare that disrupted the power grid and potentially destroyed or damaged a lot of electronics.


I think a localized event like the destruction of a single city by a nuclear bomb or some other cause wouldn't have the same effect as something systemic that affected large areas - aka our current pandemic. If a major city was destroyed you'd have the resources of the rest of that country and the world that are basically untouched. But right now - supply chains and movement of people are disrupted worldwide.

[reeshau]

I've thought the following black swan events could occur.

1. An asteroid could strike Earth resulting in the death of 3-4 billion people.

2. Terrorists could detonate a thermonuclear bomb  in a major city such as Paris, New York City, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, or London.

3. Terrorists could attack a major city with a radiation weapon rendering it uninhabitable..

4. Terrorists could poison the water supply for major cities.


I know about the bubonic plague and "Spanish flu" but I've not thought a similarly widespread pandemic could reoccur.

Often thought about our water supply being contaminated

Terrorists attacking by small plane or numerous bombs a huge sporting arena

Pandemic like we have now or being released intentionally by terrorists or a Goverment trying to destroy us.

Some major Cyber-attack spontaneously on major network structures like the airlines , banking systems etc..

Dont quote me on this but I believe we have in place ways to blowup asteroids before they can get to close to earth.

Um.... nope.

The little ones would be near impossible to hit and stop, and the large ones are..... bigger than you think

https://www.boredpanda.com/size-of-asteroids-alvaro-gracia-montoya/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic

Here's a nice near miss that wasn't that long ago. They didn't see it. Even if they did, it was more than 300 feet across and travelling fairly fast.....

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/asteroid-nasa-near-miss-earth-emails-2019-ok-a9113846.html

Actually, yup.

https://www.space.com/40943-nasa-asteroid-defense-plan.html

Of course, this is a plan, and hasn't been put to the test yet.  But NASA is scheduled to launch an actual test next year.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_Asteroid_Redirection_Test

The strategy isn't destruction--there is plenty of space out there.  A mere redirection of the asteroid from its collision course is all that's needed.  And the farther away you detect an asteroid, the smaller the nudge you need to make a difference.

But even in the case of that 300-footer, we have weapons in the current arsenal that could destroy them.  (again, not practically tested, but based on laboratory .

https://www.space.com/39971-asteroid-destruction-nuclear-bomb-study.html

Early detection is the key.  But of course, the larger ones are easier to detect, and from further away.  In my first article posted, it was estimated (in 2018) that 95% of asteroids had been identified.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

I've thought the following black swan events could occur.

1. An asteroid could strike Earth resulting in the death of 3-4 billion people.

2. Terrorists could detonate a thermonuclear bomb  in a major city such as Paris, New York City, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, or London.

3. Terrorists could attack a major city with a radiation weapon rendering it uninhabitable..

4. Terrorists could poison the water supply for major cities.


I know about the bubonic plague and "Spanish flu" but I've not thought a similarly widespread pandemic could reoccur.

Often thought about our water supply being contaminated

Terrorists attacking by small plane or numerous bombs a huge sporting arena

Pandemic like we have now or being released intentionally by terrorists or a Goverment trying to destroy us.

Some major Cyber-attack spontaneously on major network structures like the airlines , banking systems etc..

Dont quote me on this but I believe we have in place ways to blowup asteroids before they can get to close to earth.

Um.... nope.

The little ones would be near impossible to hit and stop, and the large ones are..... bigger than you think

https://www.boredpanda.com/size-of-asteroids-alvaro-gracia-montoya/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic

Here's a nice near miss that wasn't that long ago. They didn't see it. Even if they did, it was more than 300 feet across and travelling fairly fast.....

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/asteroid-nasa-near-miss-earth-emails-2019-ok-a9113846.html

Actually, yup.

https://www.space.com/40943-nasa-asteroid-defense-plan.html

Of course, this is a plan, and hasn't been put to the test yet.  But NASA is scheduled to launch an actual test next year.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_Asteroid_Redirection_Test

The strategy isn't destruction--there is plenty of space out there.  A mere redirection of the asteroid from its collision course is all that's needed.  And the farther away you detect an asteroid, the smaller the nudge you need to make a difference.

But even in the case of that 300-footer, we have weapons in the current arsenal that could destroy them.  (again, not practically tested, but based on laboratory .

https://www.space.com/39971-asteroid-destruction-nuclear-bomb-study.html

Early detection is the key.  But of course, the larger ones are easier to detect, and from further away.  In my first article posted, it was estimated (in 2018) that 95% of asteroids had been identified.

It's still nope. That's just a pie in the sky pet project in an underfunded, single nation agency. Like you've pointed out, it's never been put to the test even slightly. It's about as effective as SETI's current hunt for alien life. Nice idea, might be effective in 100 years time with better technology...... but probably not. Lab modelling is worth zip. Look at all the covid modelling going on now. At the end of the day no one has any idea how it will actually play out.

What's the bet they find alien life now, like tomorrow? I mean I've just poured scorn on black swan events AND finding alien life. Gotta happen now!

[reeshau]

I've thought the following black swan events could occur.

1. An asteroid could strike Earth resulting in the death of 3-4 billion people.

2. Terrorists could detonate a thermonuclear bomb  in a major city such as Paris, New York City, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, or London.

3. Terrorists could attack a major city with a radiation weapon rendering it uninhabitable..

4. Terrorists could poison the water supply for major cities.


I know about the bubonic plague and "Spanish flu" but I've not thought a similarly widespread pandemic could reoccur.

I find it interesting that you as largely focused on terrorists as a cause-- small, external group.  I think there are many potential equivalent ecological disasters that could happen from entirely different causes.  I think that looking at potential causes in an open way is an important part of planning for and mitigating these large events.

So, things like:

Major flooding from intensifying climate events (i.e. hurricanes or other storms)  things like multiple "500 year floods" happenng within a decade or two signal to me we need to update our expectations.

Water supply issues that are the culmination of long-standing, unsustainable practices:  water table depletion, waste leeching into drinking water, etc.  (Many of my neighbors in SE Michigan had to drill new wells in the last 5 years)

Or something along the line of Love Canal ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Canal ) or Centralia ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_mine_fire )  No external characters needed.

[reeshau]

It's still nope. That's just a pie in the sky pet project in an underfunded, single nation agency. Like you've pointed out, it's never been put to the test even slightly.

I appreciate the tongue-in-cheek nature of the rest of your reply,  it it's hardly pie-in-the-sky.  DART has a launch date, a vehicle, and a target.  The test will begin next year, and we will find out the validity of the plan in 2022.

https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/dart

[gaja]

All local and regional governments have risk analysis, at least in Europe. Depending on where they are located, the normal risks to consider are
-landslides
-large storms
-tsunami (ours are usually triggered by rock falls in narrow fjords)
-accidents at chemical plants
-large road or railway accidents
-boats running ashore
-water borne diseases
-breaks in electricity and/or water supply
-trouble in getting hold of food, medicines, or other important goods (especially things we import)
-earthquakes

and of course:
-pandemic. That one is on the list for every municipal risk assessment. We knew it would come, we just didn't know when. Global travels, destruction to natural habitats, and climate change, has increased the probability.

All of the municipalities in Norway have plans for these events (although some of the detailed plans are a bit out of date), and they have trained for them. Terrorist attacks are also part of the list, but they are very rare outside large cities, so usually not in the red part of the risk assessment form. The same with meteors hitting earth. The probability for that is much lower than for pandemics and floods, so spending local resources on worrying about that makes little sense. Spending national/international resources on finding solutions of course a good idea.

[Michael in ABQ]

I've thought the following black swan events could occur.

1. An asteroid could strike Earth resulting in the death of 3-4 billion people.

2. Terrorists could detonate a thermonuclear bomb  in a major city such as Paris, New York City, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, or London.

3. Terrorists could attack a major city with a radiation weapon rendering it uninhabitable..

4. Terrorists could poison the water supply for major cities.


I know about the bubonic plague and "Spanish flu" but I've not thought a similarly widespread pandemic could reoccur.

I find it interesting that you as largely focused on terrorists as a cause-- small, external group.  I think there are many potential equivalent ecological disasters that could happen from entirely different causes.  I think that looking at potential causes in an open way is an important part of planning for and mitigating these large events.

So, things like:

Major flooding from intensifying climate events (i.e. hurricanes or other storms)  things like multiple "500 year floods" happenng within a decade or two signal to me we need to update our expectations.

Water supply issues that are the culmination of long-standing, unsustainable practices:  water table depletion, waste leeching into drinking water, etc.  (Many of my neighbors in SE Michigan had to drill new wells in the last 5 years)

Or something along the line of Love Canal ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Canal ) or Centralia ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_mine_fire )  No external characters needed.

Are these really unexpected events though?

I think this pandemic is something that, while anticipated in theory, was not as well planned for in reality. SARS hit in 2003, then Avian flu was a big deal about 15 years ago right after SARS. Then in 2009 swine flu was the big thing. Check out Google Trends - swine flu searches dwarfed anything for avian flu - albeit more people were using Google by 2009. If you look through present day that huge spike in 2009 is barely a blip compared to people searching about COVID-19 or pandemic.

[Michael in ABQ]

Here's my black swan events.

- Discovery of intelligent alien life, especially if they discover us

- Major solar flare or similar astronomical event

- Artificial intelligence created and causes havoc - aka Skynet scenario

- Major cyber-attack focused on financial systems

- Revolution/civil war in China that overthrows the communist party

- One-time event that causes a multi-foot rise in sea levels - i.e. massive Antarctic ice shelf collapses into the ocean - volcanic event in Greenland or Antarctica rapidly melts a huge amount of glaciers, etc.

[Buffaloski Boris]

When I was a kid in Seattle, Mt St Helens happened. Stuff related to that happened.

A while ago Christchurch, NZ fell down from earthquakes while I was in it. Stuff related to that happened.

Now we're in a frickin global pandemic and stuff related to that is happening.

Not sure I believe in 'black swan events' anymore. Anything can happen anytime. I'm sooooo going full doomsday prepper after the lockdown.

I'm coming to a similar point of view.  You can plan for all sorts of reasonably foreseeable events by making sure that you have supplies necessary to carry on.  In the end, though, stuff happens. Make sure you have enough food and water and multiuse supplies for a month or more, be financially diversified, have cash available (bank and currency) and stop worrying about it. 

[former player]

When I was a kid in Seattle, Mt St Helens happened. Stuff related to that happened.

A while ago Christchurch, NZ fell down from earthquakes while I was in it. Stuff related to that happened.

Now we're in a frickin global pandemic and stuff related to that is happening.

Not sure I believe in 'black swan events' anymore. Anything can happen anytime. I'm sooooo going full doomsday prepper after the lockdown.

I'm coming to a similar point of view.  You can plan for all sorts of reasonably foreseeable events by making sure that you have supplies necessary to carry on.  In the end, though, stuff happens. Make sure you have enough food and water and multiuse supplies for a month or more, be financially diversified, have cash available (bank and currency) and stop worrying about it.

Interestingly actual cash has become pretty useless here, as many shops are practicing social distancing by requiring the use of contactless payment cards - the limit on these has been raised from £20 to £45.

[Fishindude]

Haven't heard anything about zombies mentioned here?
According to Hollywood that is a serious potential threat.

[RetiredAt63]

When I was a kid in Seattle, Mt St Helens happened. Stuff related to that happened.

A while ago Christchurch, NZ fell down from earthquakes while I was in it. Stuff related to that happened.

Now we're in a frickin global pandemic and stuff related to that is happening.

Not sure I believe in 'black swan events' anymore. Anything can happen anytime. I'm sooooo going full doomsday prepper after the lockdown.

I'm coming to a similar point of view.  You can plan for all sorts of reasonably foreseeable events by making sure that you have supplies necessary to carry on.  In the end, though, stuff happens. Make sure you have enough food and water and multiuse supplies for a month or more, be financially diversified, have cash available (bank and currency) and stop worrying about it.

Interestingly actual cash has become pretty useless here, as many shops are practicing social distancing by requiring the use of contactless payment cards - the limit on these has been raised from £20 to £45.

Same here, our tap limit has gone from $100 to $250.

[Caoineag]

I am surprised no one has really mentioned the super volcanoes. One of those will go again just maybe not in our lifetimes. We have had regular volcanoes disrupt things so a massive one blowing would cause major issues.

[fuzzy math]

Most of my more horrifying thoughts revolve around the Earth's magnetic poles flipping or the planet falling out of orbit. Massive flooding/ shifting of oceans, or temperature shifts causing it to be uninhabitable... Power grid lasts for a short while then we all freeze to death. Or we all drown. Sometimes I think about the massive expected Pacific NW earthquake causing all life west of the Cascade mountains to be swept away.

[PurpleYogurt]

I am surprised no one has really mentioned the super volcanoes. One of those will go again just maybe not in our lifetimes. We have had regular volcanoes disrupt things so a massive one blowing would cause major issues.

I've thought about a super volcano as well. You're right devastating issues if it happened.

[Clever Name]

Most of my more horrifying thoughts revolve around the Earth's magnetic poles flipping or the planet falling out of orbit. Massive flooding/ shifting of oceans, or temperature shifts causing it to be uninhabitable... Power grid lasts for a short while then we all freeze to death. Or we all drown. Sometimes I think about the massive expected Pacific NW earthquake causing all life west of the Cascade mountains to be swept away.

The poles are going to flip at some point, and it will happen pretty quickly by geological standards, but it won't be sudden on a human timescale. It will definitely cause some issues for us eventually (especially with navigation) but it wouldn't really effect the oceans.

There is no chance whatsoever that the planet will "fall out of orbit" in our lifetime or even the next 1000 generations, unless it's hit by an enormous meteor or something. And if we're hit by a meteor big enough to threaten our orbital stability we'll all be dead before we need to worry about the orbit anyway.

[happyfeet]

A massive EMP - read a crazy book about it - fiction - called  "One Second After" -

[RetiredAt63]

I lived in southwestern Quebec in 1998.  Who would have thought that 3 ice storms would hit in 5 days, and a huge region would lose power for weeks, in January with bitter cold temps?  That was our Black Swan. 

Anyone with even a casual interest in geology knows that climate changes, glaciers/ice ages come and go, sea levels rise and fall,  continents split and meet, volcanism ebbs and flows, and the odd cosmic body lands.  Usually the time scales are long enough that we don't notice the trends. What we grow up with is our "normal".

[wenchsenior]

I am surprised no one has really mentioned the super volcanoes. One of those will go again just maybe not in our lifetimes. We have had regular volcanoes disrupt things so a massive one blowing would cause major issues.

This has always been my personal fave.

[partgypsy]

I am surprised no one has really mentioned the super volcanoes. One of those will go again just maybe not in our lifetimes. We have had regular volcanoes disrupt things so a massive one blowing would cause major issues.

This has always been my personal fave.

yeah, the area around Yellowstone. Do think it's odd no one is mentioning man induced global climate change. Body count is certainly high enough (specially when you take about species extinction rate far above baseline. Just not flashy enough? Not something we can run screaming from?

[wenchsenior]

I am surprised no one has really mentioned the super volcanoes. One of those will go again just maybe not in our lifetimes. We have had regular volcanoes disrupt things so a massive one blowing would cause major issues.

This has always been my personal fave.

yeah, the area around Yellowstone. Do think it's odd no one is mentioning man induced global climate change. Body count is certainly high enough (specially when you take about species extinction rate far above baseline. Just not flashy enough? Not something we can run screaming from?

I wouldn't count that as a black swan b/c it's absolutely predictable, and some of the effects can be modeled decades in advance. 

[John Galt incarnate!]

yeah, the area around Yellowstone. Do think it's odd no one is mentioning man induced global climate change. Body count is certainly high enough (specially when you take about species extinction rate far above baseline. Just not flashy enough? Not something we can run screaming from?

In 2020,  man-induced climate change is a reality that comes as no surprise to me; thus, I do not consider it a black swan event.

 


wikipedia
Black_swan_theory

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often

[John Galt incarnate!]

A massive EMP - read a crazy book about it - fiction - called  "One Second After" -

I've heard about the book.

[Just Joe]

I've frequently thought about technology and supply chain failures. Then this virus came onto the world stage. its been interesting but in a dark way. I feel really bad about all the families who have lost someone.

This is yet another event that shows how fragile our economy is. Add in there a fictional supply chain collapse and technology failure such as an EMP event or hackers who damage mission critical things such as power generation, water supply, or fossil fuel delivery - with winter weather mixed in for fun - and things would get dicey.

We live in a semi-rural area near a smallish town. If people's income's are damaged long enough a portion of the people who live here will find something to make a dollar. Years ago when I first moved here it was petty theft - shoplifting, people stealing lawn mowers and trailers, people breaking into cars.

I'd prefer not to revisit that period. We've worked to sure make sure everything stays locked up better. Normally we could leave the cars unlocked, a random door or window could be unlocked and likely nothing would happen.

[js82]

The ones that most came to mind as plausible(as in, non-neglegible probability that they could happen during my lifetime) to me prior to this event, in relative order of likelihood(in my mind):

1a. Pandemics
1b. Pandemics... of the plant variety - something that ravages a staple food crop(wheat, soy, or rice) on a large scale

2. Electronic warfare on a massive scale - think going after the power grid or crippling information/financial systems

3. Revolution of a major world power (At this point, US or China)

4. not a full-scale nuclear war, but an EMP-style attack - and the crippling aftermath that could result from that


I think #3/4 are substantially less likely than #1/#2 - #1 is already happening, and Electronic warfare is already happening on a more limited scale - but the prospects of a big international conflict playing out in cyberspace to a larger extent than physical battlefields is something that has fairly substantial likelihood of happening during our lifetimes.

Not listed but relevant: AI Breakthroughs(hyper-intelligent AI breaking free of our control and running amok).  I just don't have a good enough read on the probability of this - and I'm not sure any amount of preparation is going to matter if an AI with superhuman intelligence decides that it wants to run the show.

[pressure9pa]

I'm not sure the average person understands just how non-remarkable these "remarkable" events are.  Let's just say there are 20 types of events that cause major disruptions to the way of you life in your area.  (In reality there are no doubt more.)  Let's say that each would happen once every 500 years.  I think the human mind is conditioned to believe that 1 in 500 = impossible.  However, if there are 20 independent possibilities for this disruption, your chances of having at least one of them occur this year are 3.9%.  Now we're talking about a real number.  Your chances of hitting one of them this decade is about one in three.  However, our minds still just conclude "impossible".

[Alchemisst]

A lot of people have been calling this event a black swan, which it is not, as Nassim Taleb (Who coined the term and wrote the book "The black swan" has mentioned several times, he also predicted a pandemic in the book.

https://mothership.sg/2020/04/covid-19-black-swan/

https://youtu.be/Tb2pXXUSzmI

[js82]

A lot of people have been calling this event a black swan, which it is not, as Nassim Taleb (Who coined the term and wrote the book "The black swan" has mentioned several times, he also predicted a pandemic in the book.

https://mothership.sg/2020/04/covid-19-black-swan/

https://youtu.be/Tb2pXXUSzmI

Taleb's desire to have everyone adhere to his "official" definition of what constitutes a black swan event isn't really germane to the topic at hand.  His definition of "if you can imagine it happening, it's not a black swan" is operationally useless.

The more germane discussion around this topic is not the "we couldn't see that coming" problem - it's that humans are remarkably bad at dealing with low-probability, high-severity events - particularly when the probability is low enough that the data set isn't big enough to have any predictive power.  We call things "500 year" events, but in most cases our data set isn't large enough to truly say what the real frequency of such an event is with that degree of certainty.  And hence, our ability to balance the present and future is hampered because while we know the future event *could* happen, we don't have a good read on how likely it truly is.

[MrThatsDifferent]

I’m not sure, I think a Black Swan event should be what we can’t predict. Most of the things people have mentioned are possible, and therefore there should be plans and countermeasures. This is to me the greatest tragedy of Covid 19, we should have seen this coming. Countries should have been prepared with a plan. Because of the insane ego of the president, the US took too long to take this seriously and now look at what’s happening. A real Black Swan, we’d never see coming and have no possible defense for. I’m not sure what that would be though (although there are lots of things we might not have defenses for, but most things we’d be prepared for, and few, outside of another war or meteor sending a dust cloud or uncontained pandemic should have a global reach).

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

I’m not sure, I think a Black Swan event should be what we can’t predict. Most of the things people have mentioned are possible, and therefore there should be plans and countermeasures. This is to me the greatest tragedy of Covid 19, we should have seen this coming. Countries should have been prepared with a plan. Because of the insane ego of the president, the US took too long to take this seriously and now look at what’s happening. A real Black Swan, we’d never see coming and have no possible defense for. I’m not sure what that would be though (although there are lots of things we might not have defenses for, but most things we’d be prepared for, and few, outside of another war or meteor sending a dust cloud or uncontained pandemic should have a global reach).

Maybe the combination of Trump and a global pandemic is the real black swan.

[stclurker]

A massive EMP - read a crazy book about it - fiction - called  "One Second After" -

That is an excellent book, as are the sequels, one year after and the final day

[Telecaster]

Taleb's desire to have everyone adhere to his "official" definition of what constitutes a black swan event isn't really germane to the topic at hand.  His definition of "if you can imagine it happening, it's not a black swan" is operationally useless.

The more germane discussion around this topic is not the "we couldn't see that coming" problem - it's that humans are remarkably bad at dealing with low-probability, high-severity events - particularly when the probability is low enough that the data set isn't big enough to have any predictive power.  We call things "500 year" events, but in most cases our data set isn't large enough to truly say what the real frequency of such an event is with that degree of certainty.  And hence, our ability to balance the present and future is hampered because while we know the future event *could* happen, we don't have a good read on how likely it truly is.

That's actually a pretty good description of a what a Black Swan is.  Taleb calls it "tail risk."  In theory, the risk is so far out on the probability curve that the risk can be safely discounted.  But in reality, we don't really know what the risks are or how to properly calculate them. 

For purposes of discussion, I call black swans the "zombie apocalypse."  There will be some unforeseen thing that screws up your plans.  The key is to realize there is some unforseen actor out there. 

And it appears to me that many posters here get that, as witnessed in the 4% rule threads.  4% of course being the historic worst case.  Almost everyone advocates having the ability to cut expenses and/or go back to work and/or use a lower WR.