Poll

What are your odds on retiring today?

less than 10% success
172 (45%)
10% =< X < 20%
14 (3.7%)
20% =< X < 30%
10 (2.6%)
30% =< X < 40%
14 (3.7%)
40% =< X < 50%
12 (3.1%)
50% =< X < 60%
10 (2.6%)
60% =< X < 70%
20 (5.2%)
70% =< X < 80%
18 (4.7%)
80% =< X < 90%
19 (5%)
more than 90% success.
93 (24.3%)

Total Members Voted: 375

Author Topic: What are your odds on retiring today?  (Read 146922 times)

dude

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2369
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #100 on: May 05, 2016, 12:26:12 PM »
I saw that there were a lot of people here with over 90% success rates and wondered why people haven't already retired yet. So I created a companion thread asking "What percentage of portfolio success using firecalc or cfiresim do you need to hit before you pull the plug?"

I will answer you here, as I think my reasons don't relate to a calculator much if at all.  As I posted above, as long as our house sells this year, I could quit immediately and have a great likelihood of being OK financially -- if things stay roughly as they are. 

I'm working right now for the (substantial) carrot at the end of six more years, and because it isn't onerous, and because that substantial increase in money will open up many options that I couldn't consider if I quit immediately.  I suspect most people who are still working with high "success" percentages in CFiresim as-is are doing the same.

In my case, I'm six years out from an immediate pension, a supplemental FERS pension, and continued health care coverage with premium contribution by the gov't.  Those are probably reason enough to stay, but I can also save heavily over these years, which will open up many possibilities for me and my children.

If I quit immediately, my CFiresim median ending portfolio is ~$5M.  If I stay and save very conservatively (i.e., no 80% savings rates, just maxing the TSP plus match) it is ~$15M.  That's enough to start thinking about a family trust, substantial life changing charity contributions, that sort of thing.

Yep, same boat for me, though with only 3 years to go.  You'd have to be crazy (or really convinced you're gonna die really soon) to throw a benefit like that away.  It'd be akin to tearing up a multi-million dollar winning lottery ticket.

I don't know. If I were in that position, and presumably in my 50s to be eligible for that kind of immediate pension, I'm not sure that I would trade 3 or 6 years of my life for a bunch of dollars that I don't need to spend, unless I enjoyed the job. That's quite a bit of the remaining expected lifetime. The idea of having an extra $8 or $10 million at death is nice. But it won't be doing me any good. It's a generous thing to trade years of your life to give that kind of money to charity. But I wouldn't give it to relatives. I don't think that's very healthy for them. Bill Gates and Warren Buffett are also only leaving limited funds to their heirs.

Not even a question in my mind.  I could not FIRE in the style I want to if I pulled the plug today -- I'd be looking at @$30k if I did that.  No thanks.  In three years, I can collect a roughly $59,000/yr pension (COLA adjusted) plus $12,000 supplement (until I'm 62).  That's $71k without drawing a dime from investments.  Not to mention affordable, first-rate health insurance, and a survivor annuity for my wife. Yeah, that is SO WORTH three more years of my life, especially when I get 5+ weeks of vacation, all federal holidays off, and generous sick leave.  I can do the next 3 years standing on my head.  My job is easy at this point, I'm just sick of doing it -- but do it, I will.  I work with great people, have a shitload of autonomy and flexibility, and don't stress over much (except my fucking work computer being a piece of shit!). Indeed, most of my friends ask me why the hell I want to retire; they think I should go until mandatory retirement age (57) and continue to collect the big paycheck and fatten up the investment accounts.  That I will not do, barring any sort of major economic meltdown or other catastrophe. But three more measly years for that payoff, hell yes, it's a no-brainer.

It sounds like you have a really nice situation there. Of course the alternative to that huge pension and other benefits isn't that you get nothing. It's that you wait for X years to get a Y-sized pension. But I'm sure you've looked at that scenario. And it sounds like you are good with working that extra time anyway.

I'm not sure what I would do with all that money besides give it away. I don't really need more than I currently spend ($25k). I could find things to spend it on, but that would feel odd to me too.

One word -- TRAVEL.  And not staying-in-hostels travel. And travel doing the things I like to do like scuba diving (not cheap, especially on liveaboards, which is the only way to see many of the world's best reefs/dive sites) and snowboarding (also not cheap, though backcountry snowboarding is essentially free -- but I want to snowboard from sailboats in Iceland and helicopters in Alaska and backcountry lodges in British Columbia).  These things cannot be done on $25k/year.  They just can't.  I'm not judging, just saying a $25k/year lifestyle is not the kind of retirement I'm looking for, not even close. To each his own.

spud1987

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 356
  • Location: SF Bay Area
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #101 on: May 05, 2016, 12:46:23 PM »
I'm at 0% (like many others based on the poll results).

It's interesting, it seems like the bulk of responses are either 0-10% or 90% or more. One takeaway from this is that the road from a 10-90% success rate is much shorter than the total accumulation phase. For example, I've been saving for 5 years now and have roughly 650k in investable assets. However, I'm still at a 0% success rate based on my annual spending. But I expect to be FI after about 4 more years of accumulating (i.e., 90+% success rate).

For me, it makes little since to quit at a 51% success rate just because I am more likely than not to not run out of money in the next 40-50 years. Why not work an extra year to be at 90%? The negative impact from the extra year of work more than outweighs the huge negative impact of running out of money (or going back to work/cutting expenses/etc.) during retirement. This impact is even more pronounced for younger folks due to compound interest (i.e., an extra year of accumulation will turn into a much larger nest egg when you are 65).

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 18174
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #102 on: May 05, 2016, 01:01:39 PM »
I'm at 0% (like many others based on the poll results).

It's interesting, it seems like the bulk of responses are either 0-10% or 90% or more. One takeaway from this is that the road from a 10-90% success rate is much shorter than the total accumulation phase. For example, I've been saving for 5 years now and have roughly 650k in investable assets. However, I'm still at a 0% success rate based on my annual spending. But I expect to be FI after about 4 more years of accumulating (i.e., 90+% success rate).


This is true.  Another way of looking at it is like this:
If you have 11x future spending (or a WR of >8.9%) you will have a success rate of <10% for 30 year periods.
If you have 22x future spending (or a WR of ~4.4%) you will have a success rate of ≥90% for 30 year periods.

Ergo - you only need to double you savings once to go from a 10% success rate to a 90% success rate for a 30 year period.
(yes, yes, people choose periods longer than 30 years... don't forget SS, etc etc.  This is just to illustrate the point why the 'in-between' is so narrow)

Koogie

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 217
  • Location: Toronto-ish
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #103 on: May 05, 2016, 01:42:22 PM »
Have 29 x expenditures (not just needs but wants).  So there is still room to trim that amount.


So.... you're solidly in the 100% success category.  Well done!

That's based on assumptions (the 4% rule mainly).   And Life isn't static.  What are your costs/needs today aren't what they will be 20 years from now.     But, anyway, thanks !!!

Kitsunegari

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 477
  • Location: Quebec, CA
  • Penny wise, pound foolish
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #104 on: May 05, 2016, 01:59:58 PM »
Pretty much like this:

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 18174
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #105 on: May 05, 2016, 02:06:11 PM »
Have 29 x expenditures (not just needs but wants).  So there is still room to trim that amount.


So.... you're solidly in the 100% success category.  Well done!

That's based on assumptions (the 4% rule mainly).   And Life isn't static.  What are your costs/needs today aren't what they will be 20 years from now.     But, anyway, thanks !!!

Well you did say "29x expendatures (not just needs but wants)" - which led me to assume that you were talking about future expenses.  And no, I wasn't basing the 100% success on the 4% rule - just historic simulations via cFireSim.

Koogie

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 217
  • Location: Toronto-ish
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #106 on: May 05, 2016, 02:11:23 PM »
Have 29 x expenditures (not just needs but wants).  So there is still room to trim that amount.


So.... you're solidly in the 100% success category.  Well done!

That's based on assumptions (the 4% rule mainly).   And Life isn't static.  What are your costs/needs today aren't what they will be 20 years from now.     But, anyway, thanks !!!

Well you did say "29x expendatures (not just needs but wants)" - which led me to assume that you were talking about future expenses.  And no, I wasn't basing the 100% success on the 4% rule - just historic simulations via cFireSim.

Ahh....but I don't know my FUTURE needs/wants amount, only my present and ESTIMATED future amount.    Do you know your actual Future amount ?   If so, could you tell me what mine is ?!      And when I'll finally go belly up ?!     It'll make planning Super easy.....
LOL   -     Anyway, dickishness aside, thank you again.

((I am overly fiscally conservative.   I encourage others to be as well))

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 18174
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #107 on: May 05, 2016, 02:43:36 PM »

Ahh....but I don't know my FUTURE needs/wants amount, only my present and ESTIMATED future amount.    Do you know your actual Future amount ?   If so, could you tell me what mine is ?!      And when I'll finally go belly up ?!     It'll make planning Super easy.....
LOL   -     Anyway, dickishness aside, thank you again.

((I am overly fiscally conservative.   I encourage others to be as well))

I was honestly just trying to congratulate you.  Since you asked the question though, I really don't understand when people say they can't make a good prediction of future spending, because it's all basically budgeting, with the added bonus that you have a VERY good idea how much money you'll have every year (e.g. no unexpected layoffs).  Take the working years for example: Regardless of what my income is, I spend less than that. That's just our natural tendency. If I tried I could always find fancier things to spend money on, but rarely do they make me happier. At the same time, I find it really easy to forecast what we'll need to spend, +/- 5%. - I know that there are always people living on less income and less stable income then we are, so if they can live happy lives, so can we.

As for when will I finally go 'belly up' - my planning involves not allowing my 'stache to become depleted.  In terms of probability of success, there really isn't much difference between a portfolio built to last 40 years and one built to last 80.  When you start looking at simulations carefully, you'll notice that every single portfolio that fails shows stress in the first 6 years.  Not all of those which show stress in the initial years do fail, but it's a very good barometer for predicting when a storm might be ahead.  So - we can adjust. Suppose my boss came by and said "sorry, but a year from now we'll have to cut your salary by 25%" -  we would have no problem adapting. So it goes with retirement.

You say that you are fiscally conservative and you encourage others to be too.  I've been searching for what I'd call myself, and I guess I would say that I am time conservative.

MrMoogle

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1136
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Huntsville, AL
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #108 on: May 05, 2016, 03:09:47 PM »

Ahh....but I don't know my FUTURE needs/wants amount, only my present and ESTIMATED future amount.    Do you know your actual Future amount ?   If so, could you tell me what mine is ?!      And when I'll finally go belly up ?!     It'll make planning Super easy.....
LOL   -     Anyway, dickishness aside, thank you again.

((I am overly fiscally conservative.   I encourage others to be as well))

I was honestly just trying to congratulate you.  Since you asked the question though, I really don't understand when people say they can't make a good prediction of future spending, because it's all basically budgeting, with the added bonus that you have a VERY good idea how much money you'll have every year (e.g. no unexpected layoffs).  Take the working years for example: Regardless of what my income is, I spend less than that. That's just our natural tendency. If I tried I could always find fancier things to spend money on, but rarely do they make me happier. At the same time, I find it really easy to forecast what we'll need to spend, +/- 5%. - I know that there are always people living on less income and less stable income then we are, so if they can live happy lives, so can we.

As for when will I finally go 'belly up' - my planning involves not allowing my 'stache to become depleted.  In terms of probability of success, there really isn't much difference between a portfolio built to last 40 years and one built to last 80.  When you start looking at simulations carefully, you'll notice that every single portfolio that fails shows stress in the first 6 years.  Not all of those which show stress in the initial years do fail, but it's a very good barometer for predicting when a storm might be ahead.  So - we can adjust. Suppose my boss came by and said "sorry, but a year from now we'll have to cut your salary by 25%" -  we would have no problem adapting. So it goes with retirement.

You say that you are fiscally conservative and you encourage others to be too.  I've been searching for what I'd call myself, and I guess I would say that I am time conservative.
Here are some of my unknowns that make it hard to determine my future spending:
When/will I get married?
Will I have kids?
I have a medical condition, but still trying different options.  What is going to be the solution, and how much is that going to cost on ACA?
Honestly, I could see my expenses doubling in a 5-10 years depending on these answers.

I'm not saving up for double though, unless I have good reason to think double is coming.  Right now I'm saving for about 1.5x my current expenses.  I also expect to have 60 years of retirement, since I have relatives living past 90, and I expect my expenses over that time will be a little more irregular than just inflation adjusted.

It is comforting to know this can easily be my last job.

But I am giving up the next 4 years in order to get from 1x ->1.5x.  And that is guaranteed 4 years for the possibility of 60.  Some days I am tempted to YOLO and leave now.



MrGreen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4629
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Wilmington, NC
  • FIREd in 2017
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #109 on: May 05, 2016, 03:11:11 PM »
It's really surprising me that ~25% of those who responded to the poll said they could basically retire today, yet don't. Assuming "retire today" means retiring with the withdraw rate desired, I'm wondering what keeps more people working. I find it hard to believe we all like our jobs. I was one of the ones who answered that way, and I'm retiring imminently so that's just a matter of poll timing.

brooklynguy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2206
  • Age: 44
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #110 on: May 05, 2016, 03:23:42 PM »
Assuming "retire today" means retiring with the withdraw rate desired, I'm wondering what keeps more people working.

OMY Syndrome:  a malady as prevalent as it is pernicious.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 18174
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #111 on: May 05, 2016, 03:29:23 PM »
It's really surprising me that ~25% of those who responded to the poll said they could basically retire today, yet don't. Assuming "retire today" means retiring with the withdraw rate desired, I'm wondering what keeps more people working. I find it hard to believe we all like our jobs. I was one of the ones who answered that way, and I'm retiring imminently so that's just a matter of poll timing.

I've often been surprised at the people who keep working without any apparent need or desire to do so.  As brooklynguy said - OMY explains a lot of it.
I vividly remember a long thread with a poster who was in his late 50s(?) and hesitant to pull the plug on a job he no longer enjoyed.  Conservatively he had a 2.4% WR, which excluded both his and his wife's SS payments in 10 years and his pension in 2 years. It also excluded the sale of his very large house in a HCOL area - something they were definitely planning on downsizing.  Even with conservative estimates for the sale of his home, SS payments (@ 70%) and his pension he was looking at a 0.8% WR.
OMY is a powerful force. When people are making and saving a lot of money it's hard to let go of that branch. That's one of the reasons why we've laid out some firm guidelines to keep us from suffering OMY down the road.

Koogie

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 217
  • Location: Toronto-ish
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #112 on: May 05, 2016, 03:42:17 PM »
I was honestly just trying to congratulate you.
And I thank you. Again.

Since you asked the question though, I really don't understand when people say they can't make a good prediction of future spending, because it's all basically budgeting, with the added bonus that you have a VERY good idea how much money you'll have every year (e.g. no unexpected layoffs). 
And perhaps you should appreciate that a lot of people come at this from very different perspectives and with very different responsibilities. As much as MMM would try and have people believe that ER is a neverchanging nirvana, it doesn't just come down to perfect, dry mathematics.  Not that it is anyones business but my wife has a degenerative neurological condition.  I know what our expenditures are today.  Can I predict what her care costs will be  5 years from now ?  10 ?  40 ?        I don't know how old you are but trust me, life can change on a dime as you age and it rarely changes for the cheaper.   

As for when will I finally go 'belly up' - my planning involves not allowing my 'stache to become depleted.
Whereas my plan does.  I have no children and could give a shit about leaving a "legacy"     Therefore my age expectation does matter and
I want to match my spending to my lifespan (or a quick and dirty approximation of same)

You say that you are fiscally conservative and you encourage others to be too.  I've been searching for what I'd call myself, and I guess I would say that I am time conservative.
And that is a great approach too.    I keenly feel the passage of time.  You seem to as well.  Many don't.   Seems we are both ahead of the herd (in different ways).    Congrats !

MrGreen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4629
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Wilmington, NC
  • FIREd in 2017
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #113 on: May 05, 2016, 03:44:59 PM »
It's really surprising me that ~25% of those who responded to the poll said they could basically retire today, yet don't. Assuming "retire today" means retiring with the withdraw rate desired, I'm wondering what keeps more people working. I find it hard to believe we all like our jobs. I was one of the ones who answered that way, and I'm retiring imminently so that's just a matter of poll timing.

I've often been surprised at the people who keep working without any apparent need or desire to do so.  As brooklynguy said - OMY explains a lot of it.
I vividly remember a long thread with a poster who was in his late 50s(?) and hesitant to pull the plug on a job he no longer enjoyed.  Conservatively he had a 2.4% WR, which excluded both his and his wife's SS payments in 10 years and his pension in 2 years. It also excluded the sale of his very large house in a HCOL area - something they were definitely planning on downsizing.  Even with conservative estimates for the sale of his home, SS payments (@ 70%) and his pension he was looking at a 0.8% WR.
OMY is a powerful force. When people are making and saving a lot of money it's hard to let go of that branch. That's one of the reasons why we've laid out some firm guidelines to keep us from suffering OMY down the road.
So it's stockholm syndrome with a chaser of fear of the unknown. Damn, now that's a 1-2 punch. "An emotional attachment to a captor formed by a hostage as a result of continuous stress, dependence, and a need to cooperate for survival." It's the very definition of it. Makes sense.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 18174
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #114 on: May 05, 2016, 03:59:51 PM »
@ koogie:  Sorry to hear about your wife.  I wish you well.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8438
  • Age: 48
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #115 on: May 05, 2016, 04:10:38 PM »
I'm not judging, just saying a $25k/year lifestyle is not the kind of retirement I'm looking for, not even close. To each his own.
 

I'm judging.

Heliboarding and liveaboard dive boats?  Seriously?  You could also aspire to solid gold toilets and a cocaine habit, but how do you morally justify such extravagance when your neighbors are cold and hungry?

Every $500 you spend on these ridiculous leisure activities could literally save a human life.  You are quite definitely killing children by choosing to indulge your wild personal fantasies instead of supporting immunization programs or malaria nets.  There are 5 million senior citizens in America who don't have enough food to eat, people who fought for your freedoms, and you'd rather snowboard out of a helicopter than feed them?

Look, if you want to work longer than necessary to do good in the world, I totally understand.  But if you want to work longer just to waste your money on the shallowest kind of personal hedonism while other people suffer?  That seems kind of fucked up to me. 


flyingaway

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 513
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #116 on: May 05, 2016, 04:36:14 PM »
I'm not judging, just saying a $25k/year lifestyle is not the kind of retirement I'm looking for, not even close. To each his own.
 

I'm judging.

Heliboarding and liveaboard dive boats?  Seriously?  You could also aspire to solid gold toilets and a cocaine habit, but how do you morally justify such extravagance when your neighbors are cold and hungry?

Every $500 you spend on these ridiculous leisure activities could literally save a human life.  You are quite definitely killing children by choosing to indulge your wild personal fantasies instead of supporting immunization programs or malaria nets.  There are 5 million senior citizens in America who don't have enough food to eat, people who fought for your freedoms, and you'd rather snowboard out of a helicopter than feed them?

Look, if you want to work longer than necessary to do good in the world, I totally understand.  But if you want to work longer just to waste your money on the shallowest kind of personal hedonism while other people suffer?  That seems kind of fucked up to me.

What is wrong for people to earn money to "waste" on the things of their likes? So it is better to quit your job and watch TV at home all the time?

People have the right to spend money on whatever they want, as long as they earned it.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 10:04:41 PM by flyingaway »

Northwestie

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1223
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #117 on: May 05, 2016, 04:47:02 PM »
I'm not judging, just saying a $25k/year lifestyle is not the kind of retirement I'm looking for, not even close. To each his own.
 

I'm judging.

Heliboarding and liveaboard dive boats?  Seriously?  You could also aspire to solid gold toilets and a cocaine habit, but how do you morally justify such extravagance when your neighbors are cold and hungry?

Every $500 you spend on these ridiculous leisure activities could literally save a human life.  You are quite definitely killing children by choosing to indulge your wild personal fantasies instead of supporting immunization programs or malaria nets.  There are 5 million senior citizens in America who don't have enough food to eat, people who fought for your freedoms, and you'd rather snowboard out of a helicopter than feed them?

Look, if you want to work longer than necessary to do good in the world, I totally understand.  But if you want to work longer just to waste your money on the shallowest kind of personal hedonism while other people suffer?  That seems kind of fucked up to me.

Well #1) it's kinda hard to judge a person from a few posts.  Maybe this person spends money on these hobbies and also gives a bunch to the charity of his choice- beating about the head and neck isn't going to convince many people.

#2) on the relative scale, we're all doing worse than Ghandi

and #3) does it get cold up there on the moral high ground?

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 18174
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #118 on: May 05, 2016, 05:11:06 PM »
I'm not judging, just saying a $25k/year lifestyle is not the kind of retirement I'm looking for, not even close. To each his own.
 

I'm judging.

Heliboarding and liveaboard dive boats?  Seriously?  You could also aspire to solid gold toilets and a cocaine habit, but how do you morally justify such extravagance when your neighbors are cold and hungry?

Every $500 you spend on these ridiculous leisure activities could literally save a human life.  You are quite definitely killing children by choosing to indulge your wild personal fantasies instead of supporting immunization programs or malaria nets.  There are 5 million senior citizens in America who don't have enough food to eat, people who fought for your freedoms, and you'd rather snowboard out of a helicopter than feed them?

Look, if you want to work longer than necessary to do good in the world, I totally understand.  But if you want to work longer just to waste your money on the shallowest kind of personal hedonism while other people suffer?  That seems kind of fucked up to me.

What is wrong for people to earn money to "waste" on the thinks of their likes? So it is better to quit your job and watch TV at home all the time?

People have the right to spend money on whatever they want, as long as they earned it.


Statement:  People have the right to spend money on whatever they want, as long as they earned it.

I don't know if I agree with this.  Certainly there's a legal right, but is there always the moral right? What about things that destroy entire ecosystems, like buying ocean-side land in a poor country and then chopping down all the trees so the runoff kills the corals and bankrupts the local fishermen?  Is it ok to spend your money on a mega-yacht while your child dies from a treatable but very expensive disease?  What if it's your distant cousin?  Your neighbor?  Someone you've never met?  Does it matter if the person contracted the disease because they were a drug addict?
Should we ever have to weigh the good money can do for someone else vs how useful it might be to us?  If we start going down that road just about everything becomes a luxury... I live in a 900sqft apartment, but I could certainly exist in something 1/3 that size.  I own more clothes right now than many people will own their entire lifetime.  At what point does it become selfish?
I honestly don't know. 

Note; this is probably its entire thread... or series of thread.

MM_MG

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 207
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #119 on: May 05, 2016, 05:21:24 PM »
0% but cross 50% in 6-7 years.  That's better than the 10-15 I was counting on to get it up to 90-100%

Cycling Stache

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 470
  • Age: 49
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #120 on: May 05, 2016, 05:26:44 PM »
I'm not judging, just saying a $25k/year lifestyle is not the kind of retirement I'm looking for, not even close. To each his own.
 

I'm judging.

Heliboarding and liveaboard dive boats?  Seriously?  You could also aspire to solid gold toilets and a cocaine habit, but how do you morally justify such extravagance when your neighbors are cold and hungry?

Every $500 you spend on these ridiculous leisure activities could literally save a human life.  You are quite definitely killing children by choosing to indulge your wild personal fantasies instead of supporting immunization programs or malaria nets.  There are 5 million senior citizens in America who don't have enough food to eat, people who fought for your freedoms, and you'd rather snowboard out of a helicopter than feed them?

Look, if you want to work longer than necessary to do good in the world, I totally understand.  But if you want to work longer just to waste your money on the shallowest kind of personal hedonism while other people suffer?  That seems kind of fucked up to me.

No, man, I know you're a serious and valuable contributor here, but that post wasn't cool.

First, this is a blog about saving money, and achieving FI.  The idea being that many people could stop working before the "normal" retirement age and enjoy their lives, not necessarily that they are going to donate every waking hour thereafter to charity.  If they do, great, but it's a tough standard to say that's what's required.

Second, you don't get to be the arbiter of what's important and what's not, or what's valuable and what's not.  Maybe some would say having lots of kids is the key, and you're an a-hole if you don't do your part.  Some might say it's spreading the word of God, and you owe it to save people for the ever after, not just for a few meals.

What you're proposing is of course good and honorable stuff.  But you unfairly turned the post on one particular user, because you didn't agree with his particular choice of pleasures.  When someone mentions enjoying good coffee (or coffee at all), nobody jumps all over them and tells them they just killed a starving, dying baby in Africa by choosing coffee over human life.

Again, you have good posts, and strong contributions.  But this particular post wasn't fair.

forummm

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7415
  • Senior Mustachian
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #121 on: May 05, 2016, 05:41:45 PM »
I'm not judging, just saying a $25k/year lifestyle is not the kind of retirement I'm looking for, not even close. To each his own.
 

I'm judging.

Heliboarding and liveaboard dive boats?  Seriously?  You could also aspire to solid gold toilets and a cocaine habit, but how do you morally justify such extravagance when your neighbors are cold and hungry?

Every $500 you spend on these ridiculous leisure activities could literally save a human life.  You are quite definitely killing children by choosing to indulge your wild personal fantasies instead of supporting immunization programs or malaria nets.  There are 5 million senior citizens in America who don't have enough food to eat, people who fought for your freedoms, and you'd rather snowboard out of a helicopter than feed them?

Look, if you want to work longer than necessary to do good in the world, I totally understand.  But if you want to work longer just to waste your money on the shallowest kind of personal hedonism while other people suffer?  That seems kind of fucked up to me. 



I think donating all that money to charity would be great. But is it any different if he just quit today and lived on whatever his current NW and pension is vs kept working 3 years so he could splurge with the difference? No Malaria cures are created with either approach. But I guess with the splurging he's providing income for others, and likely some of that will be in lower income areas.

happy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9463
  • Location: NSW Australia
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #122 on: May 05, 2016, 05:53:22 PM »
Ignoring for the moment, the moral fracas emerging, I'm justing posting to add…cFiresim showed me exactly what I expected.  If I retire right now, and plan to live to 100, my chances are somewhere between 2-33% depend on how I deal with my mortgage. If only live to 90, chances of success improve to 40% at best.  If I retire and downsize my house, pay off the mortgage and contribute the excess to the stash, I'm up around 87% and 93% for age 90.  Good to go if I had to, which is comforting.   I'm essentially still  working semi retired for "electives" i.e. things I'd like ( I like my house!), not things I need, and waiting for my brood to leave to downsize.   Whilst appreciating Sols point about 50%, I sit with Bernstein - on 80%, believing 20% will always be out of ones control.

EnjoyIt

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1386
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #123 on: May 05, 2016, 06:34:32 PM »
100% if I cut my lifestyle.
56% if I want to keep my current lifestyle.

deeshen13

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 93
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #124 on: May 05, 2016, 07:57:27 PM »
Sol is apropos in addressing the moral indifference displayed too frequently, but like others have said, it doesn't seem like that was a necessary spot to warrant it.  There's a great old thread he started along those lines with a lot of the debate.

I do also admit an increasing frustration towards a simple question of, "What is enough"?  I look around at family, friends, colleagues, and acquaintances, and none have figured out what is enough.  The sheer abundance and gluttony all around us can be very demoralizing when juxtaposed against the agony and suffering in so much of the world.

I literally have to refrain myself everyday from saying, "God dammit, what is enough!!!"

I think that was just Sol breaking down to, "What is enough!", and dude bearing the brunt.

tobitonic

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 549
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #125 on: May 05, 2016, 08:06:48 PM »
No need for hand-wringing, guys...a general benchmark is that if you're living in the US, which most of us are, and reading this thread, which all of us are, then compared to the rest of the world, you have enough. The point where you don't have enough begins when you compare yourself to others who live in the US (or other super wealthy countries). An obvious and directly relevant example would be the desire for early retirement, which pretty much everyone here aspires to due to comparisons with MMM, ERE, YMOYL, or similar literary, online, familial, or work references.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 08:11:22 PM by tobitonic »

flyingaway

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 513
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #126 on: May 05, 2016, 10:19:47 PM »
Enough or not enough is relative. Although my number is not enough, downsizing can make it enough, or removing travel can make it enough, or adding social security can make it enough, or changing my life style can make it enough, or ....

What are your odds on retiring today? 0% because I will not get fired (low case). 100% because I do have enough (see above). This sort of questions cannot be taken too seriously. I consider such questions as exchange of ideas and opinions, and not really about specific numbers.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8438
  • Age: 48
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #127 on: May 05, 2016, 11:39:44 PM »
#2) on the relative scale, we're all doing worse than Ghandi

Don't be afraid to do something just because you can't do everything.  Perfect is the enemy of the good. 

No, man, I know you're a serious and valuable contributor here, but that post wasn't cool.

Don't let a perceived reputation discourage you from addressing the present conversation.  I neither ask for nor expect anyone's deference here.  Bash away.

Quote
The idea being that many people could stop working before the "normal" retirement age and enjoy their lives, not necessarily that they are going to donate every waking hour thereafter to charity.  If they do, great, but it's a tough standard to say that's what's required.

Tough, yes.  But virtuous?  More virtuous than quitting your job and then lighting hundred dollar bills on fire in front of homeless veterans?

I don't expect everyone to live a good life, but I'm happy to call people out for living bad ones.  There are a million different ways for you to indulge your fantasies while wasting money, but none of them are exactly moral.

Quote
Second, you don't get to be the arbiter of what's important and what's not, or what's valuable and what's not.

I never claimed to be the arbiter.  I judged, passing my personal judgment on what I think is a shitty decision.  You get to make your own judgment.  Neither of us gets to change anyone else's behavior except by their voluntary agreement.

Quote
When someone mentions enjoying good coffee (or coffee at all), nobody jumps all over them

That's funny, given how many threads about coffee I've been involved with here.  I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to dig them up.   A quick refresher: coffee is evil and you shouldn't buy it.  It's a drug and abusing it is a character flaw.

I think donating all that money to charity would be great. But is it any different if he just quit today and lived on whatever his current NW and pension is vs kept working 3 years so he could splurge with the difference?

I think you would enjoy the book "Doing Good Better" which addresses this very point in some detail.  Here's a review.  As for me, I've already outlined my plans to keep working and give away half of my income once I hit FI.

Sol is apropos in addressing the moral indifference displayed too frequently, but like others have said, it doesn't seem like that was a necessary spot to warrant it.  There's a great old thread he started along those lines with a lot of the debate.

There have been a couple, over the years, as it's a recurring theme for me.

Here a good one: your mustache might be evil.  But there have been many others, including this one from way back in 2012, one of the first topics I ever started on this forum.

But those are both old threads, so I'm not surprised to see new members raising the same questions, the same objections, making the same arguments.  I'm happy to repeat those discussions with anyone, because I think they're important and meaningful, but it sure would be easier if you'd just read that thread first.


« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 11:57:46 PM by sol »

pdxmonkey

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 364
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #128 on: May 06, 2016, 12:10:31 AM »
Somewhere between 0% ($24k per year) and 26% (14k per year, assumes paid off mortgage) to get me through 30 years which is around when I may likely start claiming SS, which is neither the soonest, nor latest possible SS age. In other words. I've still got a few years of work ahead of me as by the time the mortgage is paid off there are the last couple major maintenance items on the house that will likely come up around that time. After that, the house should be set for a good 20-30 years with only basic maintenance, barring premature failure of something.

Monkey Uncle

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1768
  • Location: West-by-god-Virginia
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #129 on: May 06, 2016, 04:43:56 AM »
It's really surprising me that ~25% of those who responded to the poll said they could basically retire today, yet don't. Assuming "retire today" means retiring with the withdraw rate desired, I'm wondering what keeps more people working. I find it hard to believe we all like our jobs. I was one of the ones who answered that way, and I'm retiring imminently so that's just a matter of poll timing.

I've often been surprised at the people who keep working without any apparent need or desire to do so.  As brooklynguy said - OMY explains a lot of it.
I vividly remember a long thread with a poster who was in his late 50s(?) and hesitant to pull the plug on a job he no longer enjoyed.  Conservatively he had a 2.4% WR, which excluded both his and his wife's SS payments in 10 years and his pension in 2 years. It also excluded the sale of his very large house in a HCOL area - something they were definitely planning on downsizing.  Even with conservative estimates for the sale of his home, SS payments (@ 70%) and his pension he was looking at a 0.8% WR.
OMY is a powerful force. When people are making and saving a lot of money it's hard to let go of that branch. That's one of the reasons why we've laid out some firm guidelines to keep us from suffering OMY down the road.
So it's stockholm syndrome with a chaser of fear of the unknown. Damn, now that's a 1-2 punch. "An emotional attachment to a captor formed by a hostage as a result of continuous stress, dependence, and a need to cooperate for survival." It's the very definition of it. Makes sense.

In my case, it's definitely fear of the unknown.  I could just not show up to work on Monday, and based on what DW and I are spending right now, or what we spent last year, in all likelihood we would be fine.  But if our spending ticked back up to what it was in 2014, our modeled success rate would drop to 79%.  There's only a $7,000 difference between today's spending level and 2014's spending level.  And those modeled success rates are just that - modeled historical outcomes.  So I'll be going back to work on Monday to keep adding to the buffer.  But I'm definitely thinking long and hard about putting in the full 2.67 MY that I've been planning on.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 25682
  • Age: 44
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #130 on: May 06, 2016, 06:47:55 AM »
#2) on the relative scale, we're all doing worse than Ghandi

Ghandi was a pretty incredible guy, and did some amazing things.  But he also made it a habit to sleep naked in bed with his (also naked) great nieces.  It's important never to idolize anyone too much . . . we're all human, we all do stupid shit.

brooklynguy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2206
  • Age: 44
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #131 on: May 06, 2016, 07:00:23 AM »
But those are both old threads, so I'm not surprised to see new members raising the same questions, the same objections, making the same arguments.  I'm happy to repeat those discussions with anyone, because I think they're important and meaningful, but it sure would be easier if you'd just read that thread first.

As we discussed in "what are your plans for your stash after you're dead?", a more recent thread in which you found yourself on the opposite side of another facet of the same debate, there's a spectrum of morality along which every decision option in any given decision can fall.  None of us can claim to have achieved the absolute pinnacle of morality, and for as long as problems continue to exist in the world the spending choices of each of us will appear to be wasteful in someone's eyes.  We should each strive to make the most moral choices possible, and consciously recognize the compromise we make when we inevitably fall short of that goal.  Perfect is the enemy of the good only if you allow the inability to achieve perfection to serve as an excuse for failing to achieve the good.  If you strive for perfection despite recognizing the impossibility of achieving it, perfect can be the facilitator of the good.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8438
  • Age: 48
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #132 on: May 06, 2016, 08:40:10 AM »
We should each strive to make the most moral choices possible, and consciously recognize the compromise we make when we inevitably fall short of that goal.

Or you could just say "fuck the poor" and go heli-skiing, because apparently that's fine too?

MishMash

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 731
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #133 on: May 06, 2016, 09:22:27 AM »
We should each strive to make the most moral choices possible, and consciously recognize the compromise we make when we inevitably fall short of that goal.

Or you could just say "fuck the poor" and go heli-skiing, because apparently that's fine too?

As someone who grew up poor, and I mean on assistance poor, and someone that constantly assists said still poor family.  You are seriously going to chagrin a person working, saving their OWN money, investing, continually learning, and working to make themselves better and more marketable from enjoying the fruits of their labor in a manner that they see fit simply because there are poor people in the world?  Wow.

You want to have a Jesus complex and give all your money, time and effort to those less fortunate, go for it, but don't judge people who chose not to do so. 

Me, I see with my family and less fortunate friends a lot of their problem is SHITTY CHOICES and piss poor planning!  That's what keeps them poor.  Oh, I have 3 kids that I can't afford but oops, I'm pregnant again and since I chose to hook up with deadbeats there is no child support.  So...give the baby up for adoption or better yet, use birth control in the first place.  Oh, I partied too hard in college, got crappy grades, then couldn't land the job needed to pay off the student loans...well damn that federal government!  It's not myyyyy fault no one will hire me with an underwater basket weaving degree and 2.0 GPA (even though we all told you from day 1 your degree would be worthless in the real world).

Frankly, I busted my ass to break the cycle in my family, I knew from the time I was 7 that I didn't want to be poor so I did everything in my power from the time I was of age (and hell even before that I was quite the lemonade stand hustler) to break it.  If I want to use my cash equity from my own labor to go heliskiing or diving for 3 weeks, I damn well for sure am going to do so and if you take that as "fuck the poor people"  Well I'll put my hand up and say yup, and I'm not going to feel even remotely guilty about it.

2Birds1Stone

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8324
  • Age: 1
  • Location: Earth
  • K Thnx Bye
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #134 on: May 06, 2016, 09:30:20 AM »
We should each strive to make the most moral choices possible, and consciously recognize the compromise we make when we inevitably fall short of that goal.

Or you could just say "fuck the poor" and go heli-skiing, because apparently that's fine too?
A bit harsh. Dude has no kids right? What if he chose heliskiing and diving over have and funding 3 kids.

Whose to say what we should spend our money on?

I agree that some things are excessive and spending for the sake of spending is not a great way to exist.....but someone who wants to engage in these activities a couple of times a year and is otherwise fairly frugal is not exactly a monster killing children.

Northwestie

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1223
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #135 on: May 06, 2016, 09:33:30 AM »
We should each strive to make the most moral choices possible, and consciously recognize the compromise we make when we inevitably fall short of that goal.

Or you could just say "fuck the poor" and go heli-skiing, because apparently that's fine too?

Oh Jesus, Mary, and Harry.   The heli-skiing dude might give a substantial portion of his take-home to charity, he could be supporting needy family members.  Whatever.  Maybe this is his one extravagance for 35 years of working.

Maybe instead of buying that EV you could have sent that money over to Africa, eh?  Time to dismount from the high horse son.


Captain FIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1336
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #136 on: May 06, 2016, 09:57:03 AM »
It's really surprising me that ~25% of those who responded to the poll said they could basically retire today, yet don't. Assuming "retire today" means retiring with the withdraw rate desired, I'm wondering what keeps more people working. I find it hard to believe we all like our jobs. I was one of the ones who answered that way, and I'm retiring imminently so that's just a matter of poll timing.

1) I prefer working a few more years to get to 100% than the risk of having to go back to work if my retirement fails.  - The retirement failure would cause me a lot of stress. 
- I would not be able to get my current job again and would likely need to take something paying less, so it'd take me longer than if I just stayed put. 
- I'd need to do a job hunt, which is not fun. 
- I'd have to pay for years of my lapsed license in order to practice again.
- I imagine it'd be painful to work again after being free.
- It's not like I can't find things to do with excess cash from reaching the certainty point of 100% if the markets do better than expected.

2) Spouse
- My spouse is highly conservative and does not agree with 4% rule (he sees "past performance is not indicative of future performance) and worries over 3 (below) more than me. 
- Divorce is expensive (and I'd like to keep him anyways)

3) Uncertainty over future expenses
- Will we have kids?  This would significantly impact expenses.
- Will one of us need to go to a nursing home/have high medical costs, that will throw off spending?
- Concerns that taxes will change (this is a high spousal worry, not mine)

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8438
  • Age: 48
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #137 on: May 06, 2016, 09:57:45 AM »
I invited this abuse so I'll try to deal with each of you in turn.

You are seriously going to chagrin a person working, saving their OWN money, investing, continually learning, and working to make themselves better and more marketable from enjoying the fruits of their labor in a manner that they see fit simply because there are poor people in the world?  Wow.

While your use of the word "chagrin" is a little nonstandard, I think I understand.  And yes, I'm totally going to do that.

You capitalized OWN money, but I fundamentally disagree with this assertion.  If you have profited from living in a stable industrialized nation, then your wealth is not your own.  Your education was publicly funded, your services are publicly funded, the infrastructure you utilize was publicly funded, your markets are publicly regulated, your national defense is publicly supplied.  You are the product of a social contract which has given you enormous privlileges, which has made your success possible in a way that you alone could never have accomplished.  So I have no problem at all with that same social contract which has made you personally so wealthy also trying to minimize the suffering of those people who have not been able to benefit it from the way you have.

Capitalism enriches a minority of the population at the expense of the rest.  Just like Pharaohs lived lives of luxury because of their thousands of slaves, you and I live live lives of luxury because of the people who live in third world poverty.  Their land provides our resources.  Their labor makes our consumer goods.  I live in a fancy house and they sleep in the dirt, and it's certainly not because I work harder than they do.  So your assertion that you are wealthy because you are somehow superior to them rings very false to me.  You are wealthy because you were fortunate to be born into a position of privilege.

And if you're not superior to them, why would you be entitled to basic human rights that they are not?  Why is your life expectancy 30 years longer, is that because you broke the cycle of poverty in your family?  Why do you have clean water to drink, and a functional power grid?  Why were you educated on the taxpayer's dime, while they are still illiterate as adults?  You're seriously going to tell me that their impoverished circumstances are because they aren't as motivated and hard working as you?

Quote
give all your money, time and effort to those less fortunate, go for it, but don't judge people who chose not to do so. 

Why not?  Passing personal judgment on shitty people is just about the only thing I CAN do.  I can't change their behavior, but I sure as hell can shake my head in disgust at their self righteous vanity and their cruel indifference.

You don't agree?  That's cool too, then you get to judge them differently than I do.  What you do NOT get to do is tell me what I get to do.  So you can just back that BS right up out of my face, thanks.  I'll judge the world as I see fit, and I expect you to do the same. 

Quote
Me, I see with my family and less fortunate friends a lot of their problem is SHITTY CHOICES and piss poor planning! 

Do you think everyone with problems has made shitty choices?  For example, I have a relative who was born with Down's Syndrome.  He will never have a regular job, or live independently.  He will never owe taxes, or raise a family.  He will always be a "burden" on society, and I'm totally fine with my tax dollars being used to support people like him.  Did he make shitty choices by being born with an extra chromosome?

If you won't condemn him to die in a gutter, then what about a person who is born to a drug-addicted single mom?  No support at home, not enough food to eat, no guidance or supervision as a child, turns to dealing to feed himself, and ends up in lockup.  He was born to bad circumstances too. 

In between those two examples are a thousand other cases of people born with less luck than you and me.  Maybe some of them deserve to freeze to death this winter, in your estimation, but I would argue that every human life has value and should be protected, regardless of the circumstances of birth.  I'm not willing to turn away from a human being who is suffering and in need, when I have the means to help them while barely inconveniencing myself, instead of buying myself a giant diamond solitaire and then shoving it up my ass just because it fulfills some childish wealth fantasy.  People who blow money on stupid shit for themselves are shoving diamonds up their asses.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8438
  • Age: 48
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #138 on: May 06, 2016, 10:13:48 AM »
A bit harsh. Dude has no kids right? What if he chose heliskiing and diving over have and funding 3 kids.

Yes, I was a bit harsh.  I thought that original post was a bit callous, and so I responded in kind.

And since you're like the third person to bring up my children as a supposed counter-argument to my condemnation of wasteful spending, I should set the record straight on that point.  I have three children.  Two of them I adopted when I got married, because their biological father is a human waste of space and I thought those kid deserved a better life than that.  The third one is my own biological child, born of the woman I love, and I have never once regretted bringing her life into this world.  I will do everything in my power to provide my kids with the absolute best chance at having successful and happy lives of their own, even to the extent that I will expend more resources on them than I will on somebody's else's starving children in Africa, because I consciously chose to bear responsibility for my kids.  After their needs are met, in money and time and love, I've devoted an ever increasing share of my life to other people, too.  There has to be a point where buying your kid a third Porsche is less moral than feeding a dying child in another country, right?

Quote
Whose to say what we should spend our money on?

You are!

Who's NOT to say what we should spend our money on?  Madison Avenue.  The Joneses.  Anyone who wants to personally profit by convincing you to give them your money.  Anyone who wants you to spend your money in ways that are contrary to your values. 

So don't listen to those people.  They'll tell you that you really do need a new SUV every three years, and you 50 inch tv is already looking dated, shouldn't you replace that yet, and oh my you ARE vacationing in the Hamptons with us this summer, aren't you?  Fuck those people.  Don't let them tell you what to do.  Think for yourself, make up your own mind. 

For me, I can't personally justify a lifetime of heliskiing as anything other than ridiculous diamonds shoved up your ass, the worst kind of hedonic adaptation run amuck.  But we each get to make our choices, so you go ahead and make sure it's a nice pink one, and use lots of lube.  Try not to think about the cold and hungry American homeless veterans in your town while you sit in your McMansion with three empty bedrooms, or the babies who died of diarrhea last year because you wanted to upgrade your yacht instead of providing clean drinking water like the kind you piss in and then flush down your toilet.

And if thinking about the harm you've done by indulging your own hedonic wealth fantasies bothers you, even a little bit?  Maybe consider using your enormous privilege to buy a slightly smaller ass-diamond next time around, and using the surplus to save the life of someone less fortunate than you.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2016, 10:27:10 AM by sol »

Eric

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4056
  • Location: On my bike
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #139 on: May 06, 2016, 10:56:28 AM »
Sol, how do you reconcile starting this thread telling everyone that they're most definitely working too long and should hurry up and retire with your latest diatribe about our moral obligations to donate our money to the needy.  Aren't these two ideals directly at odds with each other?

Don't get me wrong, I'm loving the turn this thread took, I just can't seem to follow it on the map.

dude

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2369
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #140 on: May 06, 2016, 11:29:51 AM »
I'm not judging, just saying a $25k/year lifestyle is not the kind of retirement I'm looking for, not even close. To each his own.
 

I'm judging.

Heliboarding and liveaboard dive boats?  Seriously?  You could also aspire to solid gold toilets and a cocaine habit, but how do you morally justify such extravagance when your neighbors are cold and hungry?

Every $500 you spend on these ridiculous leisure activities could literally save a human life.  You are quite definitely killing children by choosing to indulge your wild personal fantasies instead of supporting immunization programs or malaria nets.  There are 5 million senior citizens in America who don't have enough food to eat, people who fought for your freedoms, and you'd rather snowboard out of a helicopter than feed them?

Look, if you want to work longer than necessary to do good in the world, I totally understand.  But if you want to work longer just to waste your money on the shallowest kind of personal hedonism while other people suffer?  That seems kind of fucked up to me.

I don't much care what anybody thinks about it.  And your argument is ridiculous.  People with much, much more money than $25k/year can actually do something about/for the less fortunate -- just ask Bill Gates.  Not so the $25k/year ascetic.  Your rationale, taken to its logical conclusion, means that any spending in excess of bare survival is immoral.  Anyone who vacations annually, for example.  Or spends money to straighten their kids' teeth for cosmetic reasons.  Or for that matter, the entire fucking entertainment industry -- movies, games, novels, etc. etc., etc.  I call bullshit.  Thousands of years of civilization, the division of labor, and technological and social progress, and has resulted in a world where a vast swath of humanity can seek self-actualization.

I'll be sure to send postcards to this site "c/o Sol."

Northwestie

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1223
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #141 on: May 06, 2016, 11:33:30 AM »
A bit harsh. Dude has no kids right? What if he chose heliskiing and diving over have and funding 3 kids.

Yes, I was a bit harsh.  I thought that original post was a bit callous, and so I responded in kind.

And since you're like the third person to bring up my children as a supposed counter-argument to my condemnation of wasteful spending, I should set the record straight on that point.  I have three children.  Two of them I adopted when I got married, because their biological father is a human waste of space and I thought those kid deserved a better life than that.  The third one is my own biological child, born of the woman I love, and I have never once regretted bringing her life into this world.  I will do everything in my power to provide my kids with the absolute best chance at having successful and happy lives of their own, even to the extent that I will expend more resources on them than I will on somebody's else's starving children in Africa, because I consciously chose to bear responsibility for my kids.  After their needs are met, in money and time and love, I've devoted an ever increasing share of my life to other people, too.  There has to be a point where buying your kid a third Porsche is less moral than feeding a dying child in another country, right?

Quote
Whose to say what we should spend our money on?

You are!

Who's NOT to say what we should spend our money on?  Madison Avenue.  The Joneses.  Anyone who wants to personally profit by convincing you to give them your money.  Anyone who wants you to spend your money in ways that are contrary to your values. 

So don't listen to those people.  They'll tell you that you really do need a new SUV every three years, and you 50 inch tv is already looking dated, shouldn't you replace that yet, and oh my you ARE vacationing in the Hamptons with us this summer, aren't you?  Fuck those people.  Don't let them tell you what to do.  Think for yourself, make up your own mind. 

For me, I can't personally justify a lifetime of heliskiing as anything other than ridiculous diamonds shoved up your ass, the worst kind of hedonic adaptation run amuck.  But we each get to make our choices, so you go ahead and make sure it's a nice pink one, and use lots of lube.  Try not to think about the cold and hungry American homeless veterans in your town while you sit in your McMansion with three empty bedrooms, or the babies who died of diarrhea last year because you wanted to upgrade your yacht instead of providing clean drinking water like the kind you piss in and then flush down your toilet.

And if thinking about the harm you've done by indulging your own hedonic wealth fantasies bothers you, even a little bit?  Maybe consider using your enormous privilege to buy a slightly smaller ass-diamond next time around, and using the surplus to save the life of someone less fortunate than you.

Maybe you should sell your computer

brooklynguy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2206
  • Age: 44
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #142 on: May 06, 2016, 11:36:10 AM »
I'm not willing to turn away from a human being who is suffering and in need, when I have the means to help them while barely inconveniencing myself

But you are willing to do this (as is everyone else posting here).  You've drawn the line on your own personal austerity somewhere short of fancy heli-skiing trips, but you haven't renounced all the trappings of your first world life of luxury.  In the eyes of a Bangladeshi slum dweller with no access to the type of drinking water you continue to piss and shit in, do you really think your own life of enormous privilege looks any less unconscionable than that of your spendier compatriots?

You've done at least as much as anyone on this board to help folks open their eyes to the opportunity costs of their own spending choices, and the fact that those costs literally include the lives and welfare of billions of our fellow human beings.  Newcomers should realize that for all his casting of stones, sol does not pretend to be without sin.  We all have to draw our line somewhere, and no matter where we do, there is always room to improve.

Peter Singer's conclusion in one of his succinct essays on this topic helps me to reconcile my own conflicting desires to enjoy my own life and to discharge my moral obligation to do my part to improve the world at large:

Quote from: Peter Singer
In a society in which the narrow pursuit of material self-interest is the norm, the shift to an ethical stance is more radical than many people realize. In comparison with the needs of people going short of food in Rwanda, the desire to sample the wines of Australia’s best vineyards pales into insignificance. An ethical approach to life does not forbid having fun or enjoying food and wine; but it changes our sense of priorities. The effort and expense put into fashion, the endless search for more and more refined gastronomic pleasures, the added expense that marks out the luxury-car market – all these become disproportionate to people who can shift perspective long enough to put themselves in the position of others affected by their actions. If the circle of ethics really does expand, and a higher ethical consciousness spreads, it will fundamentally change the society in which we live.

dude

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2369
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #143 on: May 06, 2016, 11:46:57 AM »

For me, I can't personally justify a lifetime of heliskiing as anything other than ridiculous diamonds shoved up your ass, the worst kind of hedonic adaptation run amuck.  But we each get to make our choices, so you go ahead and make sure it's a nice pink one, and use lots of lube.  Try not to think about the cold and hungry American homeless veterans in your town while you sit in your McMansion with three empty bedrooms, or the babies who died of diarrhea last year because you wanted to upgrade your yacht instead of providing clean drinking water like the kind you piss in and then flush down your toilet.

And if thinking about the harm you've done by indulging your own hedonic wealth fantasies bothers you, even a little bit?  Maybe consider using your enormous privilege to buy a slightly smaller ass-diamond next time around, and using the surplus to save the life of someone less fortunate than you.

Ha!  Fantastic imagery!  Gotta hand it to you there.  If you truly cared about the less fortunate as much as your internet posturing suggests, Mother Theresa, you'd quit socking away all that money so you don't have to work anymore, donate it to worthy causes, and keep working on their behalf until you drop dead. That black and white world you live in must get awfully stressful on the eyes.

But whatever.  I've always valued your contributions to this forum, but you're way off base here.

I'll be in Mexico in a couple weeks on yet another hedonistic vacation, surfing, diving and generally supporting the economy of our neighbors to the south -- I'll be sure to tip a SolTM in your honor.

MishMash

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 731
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #144 on: May 06, 2016, 11:51:02 AM »
I invited this abuse so I'll try to deal with each of you in turn.

You are seriously going to chagrin a person working, saving their OWN money, investing, continually learning, and working to make themselves better and more marketable from enjoying the fruits of their labor in a manner that they see fit simply because there are poor people in the world?  Wow.

While your use of the word "chagrin" is a little nonstandard, I think I understand.  And yes, I'm totally going to do that.

You capitalized OWN money, but I fundamentally disagree with this assertion.  If you have profited from living in a stable industrialized nation, then your wealth is not your own.  Your education was publicly funded, your services are publicly funded, the infrastructure you utilize was publicly funded, your markets are publicly regulated, your national defense is publicly supplied.  You are the product of a social contract which has given you enormous privlileges, which has made your success possible in a way that you alone could never have accomplished.  So I have no problem at all with that same social contract which has made you personally so wealthy also trying to minimize the suffering of those people who have not been able to benefit it from the way you have.

Capitalism enriches a minority of the population at the expense of the rest.  Just like Pharaohs lived lives of luxury because of their thousands of slaves, you and I live live lives of luxury because of the people who live in third world poverty.  Their land provides our resources.  Their labor makes our consumer goods.  I live in a fancy house and they sleep in the dirt, and it's certainly not because I work harder than they do.  So your assertion that you are wealthy because you are somehow superior to them rings very false to me.  You are wealthy because you were fortunate to be born into a position of privilege.

And if you're not superior to them, why would you be entitled to basic human rights that they are not?  Why is your life expectancy 30 years longer, is that because you broke the cycle of poverty in your family?  Why do you have clean water to drink, and a functional power grid?  Why were you educated on the taxpayer's dime, while they are still illiterate as adults?  You're seriously going to tell me that their impoverished circumstances are because they aren't as motivated and hard working as you?

Quote
give all your money, time and effort to those less fortunate, go for it, but don't judge people who chose not to do so. 

Why not?  Passing personal judgment on shitty people is just about the only thing I CAN do.  I can't change their behavior, but I sure as hell can shake my head in disgust at their self righteous vanity and their cruel indifference.

You don't agree?  That's cool too, then you get to judge them differently than I do.  What you do NOT get to do is tell me what I get to do.  So you can just back that BS right up out of my face, thanks.  I'll judge the world as I see fit, and I expect you to do the same. 

Quote
Me, I see with my family and less fortunate friends a lot of their problem is SHITTY CHOICES and piss poor planning! 

Do you think everyone with problems has made shitty choices?  For example, I have a relative who was born with Down's Syndrome.  He will never have a regular job, or live independently.  He will never owe taxes, or raise a family.  He will always be a "burden" on society, and I'm totally fine with my tax dollars being used to support people like him.  Did he make shitty choices by being born with an extra chromosome?

If you won't condemn him to die in a gutter, then what about a person who is born to a drug-addicted single mom?  No support at home, not enough food to eat, no guidance or supervision as a child, turns to dealing to feed himself, and ends up in lockup.  He was born to bad circumstances too. 

In between those two examples are a thousand other cases of people born with less luck than you and me.  Maybe some of them deserve to freeze to death this winter, in your estimation, but I would argue that every human life has value and should be protected, regardless of the circumstances of birth.  I'm not willing to turn away from a human being who is suffering and in need, when I have the means to help them while barely inconveniencing myself, instead of buying myself a giant diamond solitaire and then shoving it up my ass just because it fulfills some childish wealth fantasy.  People who blow money on stupid shit for themselves are shoving diamonds up their asses.

I have zero issue with my tax dollars helping those in need that can't help themselves, he won't die in a gutter simply because those "industrialized" systems are in place.  However it is a totally different argument to tell people that they need to pay tax dollars AND then continue to work to help those less fortunate then themselves at the expense of their own happiness and desires.  To tell someone they shouldn't reward their own accomplishments because they should feel guilty about not helping someone less fortunate is just a plain dick move. 

In regards to publicly funded, yes I received public education in an underperforming school etc, but to say it's free is a mis statement as I, and many other high income earners on these boards, have more than paid back what was "given" to them through years of federal, state, local and property taxes.

If you want to live your life with a profound feeling of self loathing and guilt every time you save a dollar, or eat out, do something that costs money or turn the thermostat up a degree, that's fine.  Doesn't seem like a way to actually LIVE life though.  But again, you live in a free country, one that protects your right to live life as you choose and protects your "privilege".  Just realize most sane people won't agree with working like a dog for their entire life, with no reward, to support a population that either can't work, or won't get an education/job/make difficult choices to better their chances of success. 

PS, I lived in sub saharan Africa for a while doing research among the Himba and Tutsi tribes, people living in TRUE global level poverty.  Sorry, you can throw all the money you want at a problem but unless you are changing  cultural values, shit's not going to change.  And well if centuries of war have shown us anything it's that cultural and religious mumbo jumbo is next to impossible to change.  Poverty in industrialized nations is an entirely separate matter

dude

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2369
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #145 on: May 06, 2016, 12:29:25 PM »
Sol, I also can't help thinking that you must hold some scathing opinions about people who own pets, and especially those who donate to rescuing them rather than feeding homeless/poor people.

For the record, I have 1 large breed dog, and two cats.

onlykelsey

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2166
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #146 on: May 06, 2016, 12:33:55 PM »
Sol, I also can't help thinking that you must hold some scathing opinions about people who own pets, and especially those who donate to rescuing them rather than feeding homeless/poor people.

For the record, I have 1 large breed dog, and two cats.

I have a giant dog, and I think about this a lot, both from a "what should I spend my money on" and a "how much meat demand should one household really make" perspective.  My husband's vegetarian and I (pre-pregnancy) ate meat once every two weeks or so, but I once calculated my dog will eat ~1.2 tons of meat (three steer, post-processing!) in his life.

dude

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2369
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #147 on: May 06, 2016, 12:37:33 PM »
Also, did someone hack your account when you wrote this over on another thread:

All of this discussion about how you should always support the least fortunate seems counter to basic human nature.  Do you not root for anyone to win the superbowl (or world cup or whatever) just because we're all one big happy human family and no one should have to lose?  Or do you pick a team to support, knowing full well that other people will suffer if your team is victorious?  My kids are like my team, and I root for them to succeed.

Whether it's spending your money to send your kids to an Ivy League school, or supporting them when they join the Peace Corps, or buying them new clothes, or games, or sporting equipment -- every one of these is a choice to spend money on something other than feeding the poor.  You can rationalize away the degrees all you want, but the bottom line is, the opportunity cost of clothing your kids, sending them to school, or buying them anything beyond bare subsistence is necessarily that some poor kids don't get fed.   

Northwestie

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1223
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #148 on: May 06, 2016, 12:59:49 PM »
Sol, I also can't help thinking that you must hold some scathing opinions about people who own pets, and especially those who donate to rescuing them rather than feeding homeless/poor people.

For the record, I have 1 large breed dog, and two cats.

I have a giant dog, and I think about this a lot, both from a "what should I spend my money on" and a "how much meat demand should one household really make" perspective.  My husband's vegetarian and I (pre-pregnancy) ate meat once every two weeks or so, but I once calculated my dog will eat ~1.2 tons of meat (three steer, post-processing!) in his life.

I'm rescuing homeless cats and dogs so I can breed them to send over to poor people in Africa.  They can use them for pets or food - up to them.

Faraday

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1191
  • Age: 63
  • Location: NC
  • Solar Powered Slice
Re: What are your odds on retiring today?
« Reply #149 on: May 06, 2016, 01:27:19 PM »
82% spending $30k/year.

Holy Crap: I can safely FIRE when the house is paid off. Targeting that for two years from now. Awesome!

BTW: I've purposefully ignored the sims in the last two years so I would not cop a 'tude. 

NOW you done it! 'tude city, here I come!

Sol, great idea for the thread! Now if we can just keep it from devolving .....