Author Topic: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?  (Read 4552 times)

TallMike

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What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« on: June 13, 2019, 04:15:53 AM »
The MMM community and blog mean a variety of different things to each of us and sometimes different things to any one of us at different times in our lives. I certainly arrived via the financial independence focus, while also mildly intrigued by the older posts about how to weld deck railings. Eventually, I became equally, if not more, interested in the environmental and philosophical parts of the writing. The posts on Stoicism and optimism, in particular, drew me in, as did the critiques of modern news media and where they attempt to focus our attention.

Recently, in considering this, I've thought of MMM as fairly pragmatic in his optimism. He isn't saying there aren't things to worry about, just that society worries about the wrong things, and overlooks important things. I think this argument is pretty well developed in his writing, so I don't feel a need to rehash it here, but if I'm wrong, please let me know.

So, my questions are: What are the real risks in life, the ones that are important either because 1) the probability of occurrence isn't vanishingly small or 2) the consequences are somewhere between important and dire, AND because you can actually take practical steps that will impact the probability or the consequence? And, for those risks, what can you do to mitigate them? I'm not really talking about investing risk here. At times, I feel like investing risk is a distraction from other bigger picture things you can overlook, assuming you have enough baseline mustachianism up and running that you're not taking on debt, overspending, etc. Let's assume that's "dealt with" for the most part.

This is intended to be a practical exercise. I'm listing some of the big ones I've been able to identify below, but really I'm hoping to crowdsource ideas for things I could and should be doing as non-silly risk management steps. I'm keeping my list to 5 to try to focus my attention. I'm by no means convinced that these are my TOP 5, they feel like more of a random sample...


1. Long term physical health - probability: moderate to high, impact: moderate to high. - Management: exercise and diet are the big ones. This is a toughie because it requires steady, long term management, e.g. consistent exercise

2. Estate planning issues - probability: Zero or near certain, impact: zero to high. Management: get a will in place, sign it, communicate with the executor, etc. This is an example of a risk that can be relatively simple to manage, but people might overlook it. My wife and I became parents in 2009, but we didn't get our act together to get a signed will until 2018. I feel like this risk is now meaningfully managed, but what the heck took me this long?

3. Family memories and digital protections: Probability: low, impact: high. Management: Following best practices on password protections, backing up photos and saving in multiple physical locations. This might seem like an odd one to include, but I had a friend who lost all her family photos in a fire and I've always remembered the story. Similarly, stories about identity theft seem to illustrate that this has a small chance of happening, but can be devastating in its effects. I plan to spend some time in the next couple weeks figuring out if I've actually been doing the equivalent of driving with my digital seat belt off, or if this is something I don't need to worry about so much.

4. Mental/Emotional health (social isolation, meaning creation) - Probability: moderate to high, impact: moderate to high. Management: Prioritize time with my family. Invest in friendships I already have. Enjoy my dog. Look for impactful activities beyond my self and my immediate home. Read. Participate in the arts. I think the default settings of modern U.S. life can be pretty awful on this dimension (partly because so many valuable activities in this realm do not generate profits for anyone...) but some conscious attention can move the needle a great deal.

(And finally, back to the mundane...)
5. Driving accidents - Probability: low to moderate, impact: low to high. Management: Drive less. Don't drive while fatigued. Try to avoid driving when people are likely to be drunk. Teach your kids as best you can how to drive well and manage their own driving risk.

Two big risks that didn't make the list because I'm struggling to articulate meaningful, concrete steps to manage them at the individual level: these require larger-scale social and political change (which are, of course, made up of individual changes...): Climate change and Dementia

My question to the community then: What key risks have you identified as important that people tend to ignore, and what steps have you been able to take to manage them?

Monkey Uncle

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2019, 04:52:59 AM »
Great topic.  Here are a couple I thought of off the top of my head.

Medical bankruptcy (or other major impact on finances).  Probability: low to high.  Impact: high.  This one is pretty much limited to the U.S.  Theoretically, the ACA should have reduced or eliminated this problem.  But the essential components of health insurance mandated by the ACA still leave the potential for catastrophic medical bills due to high out-of-pocket limits, narrow coverage networks, limited geographic coverage, and balance billing.  Solution: make sure your insurance policy has out-of-pocket limits that you can handle and that its coverage network includes all the providers you might use and geographic areas in which you might spend time.  This is easier said than done for a lot of people because they are pretty much limited to whatever crappy plan their employer provides, or whatever ACA exchange plans are available in their area.

Expensive home repairs.  Probability: low to high.  Impact: moderate to high.  Solution: similar to the health insurance problem above, make sure to choose a homeowner's policy with out-of-pocket limits that are manageable for you.  This should be easier to do with homeowner's insurance, unless you live in a disaster-prone area.  Be aware that many expensive repairs are considered normal upkeep and are not covered by insurance (e.g., a new roof).  Make sure your finances can absorb a $10k hit every 10-20 years.

ender

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2019, 06:18:34 AM »
So, my questions are: What are the real risks in life, the ones that are important either because 1) the probability of occurrence isn't vanishingly small or 2) the consequences are somewhere between important and dire, AND because you can actually take practical steps that will impact the probability or the consequence? And, for those risks, what can you do to mitigate them? I'm not really talking about investing risk here. At times, I feel like investing risk is a distraction from other bigger picture things you can overlook, assuming you have enough baseline mustachianism up and running that you're not taking on debt, overspending, etc. Let's assume that's "dealt with" for the most part.

I agree with 1/2. Not sure I agree on the others on your list as being meaningful. For #5, I'd add the biggest risk is probably not you unless you often drive drunk or at times people drive drunk.

A risk a lot of folks seem to ignore is healthcare like @Monkey Uncle says. Another risk I would add is healthcare/end of life care for parents. Many people I know in their 50s/60s end up taking care of parents in some way. That can be a major money and time hit.

One for folks not planning on FIRE is the risk of being able to hold a job into their 50s/60s meaningfully. If I wasn't planning on FI before that point, it'd be the #1 risk I'd worry about. In some industries, there is a strong agism that would make it very difficult for someone at 60 to change jobs.

Folks here likely mitigate a lot of transient risks which are effectively $$$ risks. Basically all the things which might hit an emergency fund - short term job loss, house/car repairs, etc.

nereo

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2019, 08:19:50 AM »
I see the biggest 'risk' as being unable to adapt to changing societal circumstances, and suffering greatly because of it - be it financially, socially or even emotionally. What's more, I'd say that the probability that society will drastically change over the course of a few decades is nearly 100%.

As some examples, consider how people interact and how the world functions in 2019 compared with the 1960s, when many people who are currently entering 'traditional retirement age' grew up.  Throughout their entire education they likely never touched a computer while many learned skills essential to their jobs or lives which are now obsolete.  The extend of social networks was a literal phone-tree or in-person meetings.   Now the more resilient have mitigated this risk by lifetime learning, learning how to use computers and new job skills and how to socialize with others.  But those that resist are at risk not just of being isolated from younger generations, but also of having to hire others to do many things the rest of us consider 'basic knowledge'. Sure, they might have been able to fix the timing belt on their '72 beetle, but they need to rely on the Nerd Squad to uninstall an app on their smartphone.  Worse, those that adjust to these changes become prime targets for fraud and exploitation - which is why people over 65 are disproportionatly scammed.  It's not even limited to computers; the standards and practices of home building have changed dramatically in the last 30 years, and someone who was a carpenter may find current construction and repair projects very foreign unless s/he ahs kept up with these changes.

If it feels like this is unique to those who grew up pre-PC, it's not.  I'm relatively certain my much of my skillset now will be obsolete (and antiquated) in 25 years, and that the fundamental ways which society functions will look vastly different from today, and in ways we cannot predict now.  So my strategy to mitigate this risk is to take a life-long learning approach. 

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2019, 09:19:00 AM »




Folks here likely mitigate a lot of transient risks which are effectively $$$ risks. Basically all the things which might hit an emergency fund - short term job loss, house/car repairs, etc.

One $$risk$$ I think about that wouldn't be transient  is  changed  tax policy and increased tax rates.


fattest_foot

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2019, 10:36:41 AM »
I agree with 1/2. Not sure I agree on the others on your list as being meaningful. For #5, I'd add the biggest risk is probably not you unless you often drive drunk or at times people drive drunk.

Interesting you mention this one, because it's one I don't consider as a risk often because I typically don't leave the house after 6pm.

A few months ago, however, I saw a recent car accident (car crossed the median and hit a tree on the other side) on my way into work in the morning. I kind of forget that getting to work early in the morning overlaps with the drunks from the previous night. So now I'm thinking getting to FIRE as fast as possible is a mitigation for this. It avoids being out of the house so early that it's "late, late night."

I also often forget that there are lots of irresponsible people. Ones who likely do drugs during the middle of the day and then go for a drive. Also, not quite as irresponsible, but plenty of new drivers (teenagers) who are possible threats to my safety.

RyanAtTanagra

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2019, 10:39:32 AM »
I'll add two:

1)  Communication with your partner.  Few things will derail your life more than a divorce/life partner breakup.  And one of the biggest causes is poor communication.  Make sure you're proactively taking care of your relationship, even if everything seems fine.  Everyone agrees they should be doing this, but few actually do.

2)  Remaining open minded and fighting stubbornness as we get older.  It seems almost inevitable that as we get older we get more set in our ways.  This causes problems in so many ways (including with #1 above).  People always say 'i won't be like that', as if we know what we're going to be like when we're older.  I'm (only) turning 40 this year and I can already see it in myself.  It's a constant struggle to fight my mind closing down to new ideas and ways of doing things, and I know it's only going to get worse, which is why it's important to me to curb it as much as I can, while I can.  Not sure how to best deal with this one, though.

ctuser1

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2019, 12:42:52 PM »
"Risk" is external - by it's very definition! It's what happens to you!!

I personally feel it is better to think in terms of "options" - since that is lot more proactive. There is a large correlation between having more options, and doing more effective mitigation of when risks materialize and become issues.

Many actions you take in life either decreases or increases options:
1. Go to school and get a marketable degree - you increase your employability and hence options.
2. Move to a midwest city with much more limited set of employers for your skillset - you likely decrease options for yourself.
3. Buy a house with price < 1 year's income -> no change in options since you can move and buy another one if required.
4. Buy a house @4X income that goes underwater - options severely decreased.
5. Live a Mustachian lifestyle -> options increase a lot. You could quit your job < 40 if you want.
6. Live a Bogleheads lifestyle -> options increase a bit or remain same.
7. Actually retire early after hitting the FIRE numbers -> Options decrease a lot.
etc. etc. etc...

Explicitly mitigating or managing the risks require you to first "know" the list of risks you need to worry about, and then being able to semi-accurately estimate the impact and probability. These are not easy tasks, and especially difficult (bordering on impossible) when your "population size" is basically 1.

I personally tend to worry more about which actions are giving me more options for future as a risk management measure. If I have a lot of options in my hands, and a load of flexibility, then my ability to handle Risks that materialize becomes much better - irrespective of whether the risk is a "known known" (car needs to have oil changed every 5000 miles), "known unknown" (e.g. my washer crapped out 6 months ago. impossible to predict exactly, but very possible to plan and mitigate) or "unknown unknown".

Bottomline, don't try to enumerate and explicitly manage any except the very top risks (medical insurance, home insurance, auto insurance, liability insurance). Even in those cases, I don't do anything unusual except getting insurance. Everything else is just a matter of remaining nimble on your feet should anything bad occur!! 
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 12:47:28 PM by ctuser1 »

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2019, 01:32:16 PM »
I agree with 1/2. Not sure I agree on the others on your list as being meaningful. For #5, I'd add the biggest risk is probably not you unless you often drive drunk or at times people drive drunk.

Interesting you mention this one, because it's one I don't consider as a risk often because I typically don't leave the house after 6pm.

A few months ago, however, I saw a recent car accident (car crossed the median and hit a tree on the other side) on my way into work in the morning. I kind of forget that getting to work early in the morning overlaps with the drunks from the previous night. So now I'm thinking getting to FIRE as fast as possible is a mitigation for this. It avoids being out of the house so early that it's "late, late night."

I also often forget that there are lots of irresponsible people. Ones who likely do drugs during the middle of the day and then go for a drive. Also, not quite as irresponsible, but plenty of new drivers (teenagers) who are possible threats to my safety.

Scary too are all the distracted motorists who drive while using/playing  with electronic gizmos. I was almost hit by a fellow who, as he drove around a blind curve was looking down at  something in his lap. Luckily he was moving at only ~15 MPH.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2019, 03:58:48 PM »
The number one risk is the health risk. To paraphrase a popular line: over a long enough time horizon, the chance of survival drops to zero. The key then is to push your life expectancy  to the right side of the curve. So what are the most likely causes of death and how do you mitigate them as best you can? Answer those questions and act on the information.

onewayfamily

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2019, 10:08:03 AM »
Re: Medical bankruptcy - if any of you 'only-US-citizens' can get a European or any other western passport via parent/grandparent birth rights etc. it's worth going through the process. You'd be surprised how many European countries have these paths to citizenship. Having an additional citizenship (or multiple ones) in places like Australia, Canada, any of the EU countries and many other places gives you the benefit of universal healthcare in an emergency or chronic health situation. Hopefully you would have time and the ability to travel there but that's a separate issue. I didn't realise until recently how much peace of mind this provides us (being a non-American).

RyanAtTanagra mentioned your marriage which is a biggie that is often overlooked.

As noted by TallMike and Buffalo Chip - health risks really are the major one and luckily one that we do have a lot of control over (within the limits of randomness and bad luck). The boring causes of death are the most common - luckily a lot is known about how to mitigate and avoid/delay them.

Re: Driving risks: yes avoid drowsy driving etc. Some other pointers:
- driver's main or only focus should be driving (not talking, dealing with rowdy kids in the back, changing the podcast etc.)
- watch out for erratic drivers and avoid them
- intersections and freeways are the major hotspots for accidents
- faster driving drastically increases the risk of a crash - so slow down and even go a bit below the speed limit
- wet road conditions are very common in accident reports
- accidents are much more common at night per mile driven (~ 3x a likely apparently)
- keep both hands on the wheel at around 9:30 and 2:30 - this can help in a situation where you need to take evasive measures extremely quickly (have personal experience with this one...)
- good (unworn) tires and keeping headlights bright is smart

Some other risks/tips:
Fire: keep smoke alarms around the house and check that they work regularly, as well as fire extinguishers in easy to access/remember locations.
Drowning: be very careful with kids around water/pools - basically there must be an adult with eyes on them at all times without exception. Also - swimming lessons.

Linea_Norway

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #11 on: June 25, 2019, 05:43:20 AM »
Relationship: For people who live together, but are not married, make sure you have some contract that explisitly states who owns what. So that each partner knows his/her finances and can decide if they can stay FIREd after a breakup or when their partner dies. Ensure you have a testament that covers each other.

Risk: Loosing critical access codes or digital data. It has happend to blockchain investments where either the customer lost their key, or the owner of the company lost his (or fakes it). Solution: don't invest in vague companies. But in general, we have so much stuff electronically that we could easily loose some passwords or forget which services we use. Digital stuff might get lost. Physical stuff as well, but that is a different matter.

Population changes: If something changes big scale in society, the goverment might need to change it's tax system. E.g. if AI/robots will make many people unemployed, then the government might need to increase taxes in a whole different way then what we currently have. This might not be in your FIRE calculations. Mitigation: Make sure you overestimate a little with your FIRE budget, so that you can cut down to live off less when that is necessary.

You or your Partner disabled: You might need to change your home and deal with it. Might need to hire more services to do stuff that the disabled person use to do. Higher medical expenses and higher general expenses (adapted car, adapted home).
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 02:17:31 PM by Linea_Norway »

SunnyDays

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #12 on: June 25, 2019, 09:19:49 AM »
In my opinion, people overestimate the value of pictures, your # 3 on the list.  Most people don't really look at all the thousands of pictures they take, and often "lose the moment" just in the process of taking them.  A mental memory of the event is more important than a visual representation to me.  In about 50 years, who will even know who all those people are, or care?  Even within families.  A few good portraits are worth something, I guess, to future generations, but not all the random vacation and selfie crap.  My 2 cents.

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2019, 09:06:33 PM »
I agree with 1/2. Not sure I agree on the others on your list as being meaningful. For #5, I'd add the biggest risk is probably not you unless you often drive drunk or at times people drive drunk.

Interesting you mention this one, because it's one I don't consider as a risk often because I typically don't leave the house after 6pm.

A few months ago, however, I saw a recent car accident (car crossed the median and hit a tree on the other side) on my way into work in the morning. I kind of forget that getting to work early in the morning overlaps with the drunks from the previous night. So now I'm thinking getting to FIRE as fast as possible is a mitigation for this. It avoids being out of the house so early that it's "late, late night."

I also often forget that there are lots of irresponsible people. Ones who likely do drugs during the middle of the day and then go for a drive. Also, not quite as irresponsible, but plenty of new drivers (teenagers) who are possible threats to my safety.
It's not the drunks that will get you, it's the texters and they are out there 24/7. Then there's falling in your bathroom which seems to take out 90% of people. You're not safe anywhere!! https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/16/health/research/16statshtml'

I take the bus to work every day, travelling along two main highways.  I almost always have a window seat, and from the elevated bus seat position, you can see into all of the passenger cars and trucks on the road.  I'm continually astounded about how many people text while driving (or at least check their phones on their lap).  It's like universal.  You always hear talk of teens texting and driving, but trust me, it ain't just teens.  I'm frankly surprised there are not more accidents. 

SuperNintendo Chalmers

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2019, 09:19:01 PM »
Lots of good discussion in this thread.  For me, other than long-term health, the most salient "risk" I feel is "unrealized deferred dreams."  If you are sacrificing your present time to save money to do things later, there is a risk circumstances could prevent you from ever realizing those dreams (i.e., you croak on your last day of work and fall face first into your office good-bye cake). 

Not sure there's much to do to mitigate that except many of the things others have already mentioned--take care of yourself, make sure you are incorporating meaningful moments into your life day-to-day, etc.  The biggest mitigation is to just go do what you really want to do right now, but that opens up a whole other series of risks.

Linea_Norway

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2019, 12:34:00 AM »
I take the bus to work every day, travelling along two main highways.  I almost always have a window seat, and from the elevated bus seat position, you can see into all of the passenger cars and trucks on the road.  I'm continually astounded about how many people text while driving (or at least check their phones on their lap).  It's like universal.  You always hear talk of teens texting and driving, but trust me, it ain't just teens.  I'm frankly surprised there are not more accidents.

Isn't this forbidden by law in the US?

In Norway it became forbidden to use a cellphone while driving for about 10 years ago. People still use their phones, but not as often as before and at least they can be fined for it now.

Linea_Norway

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2019, 12:36:37 AM »
Lots of good discussion in this thread.  For me, other than long-term health, the most salient "risk" I feel is "unrealized deferred dreams."  If you are sacrificing your present time to save money to do things later, there is a risk circumstances could prevent you from ever realizing those dreams (i.e., you croak on your last day of work and fall face first into your office good-bye cake). 

This.

The chance of missing out on life is much bigger then the chance of FIRE not working out. We can always make it work somehow if we get financial challenges. But you can never get back the time you are wasting by sitting in a cubicle 40 hours a week.

FIREstache

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2019, 04:49:45 AM »
I take the bus to work every day, travelling along two main highways.  I almost always have a window seat, and from the elevated bus seat position, you can see into all of the passenger cars and trucks on the road.  I'm continually astounded about how many people text while driving (or at least check their phones on their lap).  It's like universal.  You always hear talk of teens texting and driving, but trust me, it ain't just teens.  I'm frankly surprised there are not more accidents.

Isn't this forbidden by law in the US?

In most states.  Cell phone usage while driving laws vary per state.  People commonly violate those laws.

Monkey Uncle

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2019, 04:53:02 AM »
I take the bus to work every day, travelling along two main highways.  I almost always have a window seat, and from the elevated bus seat position, you can see into all of the passenger cars and trucks on the road.  I'm continually astounded about how many people text while driving (or at least check their phones on their lap).  It's like universal.  You always hear talk of teens texting and driving, but trust me, it ain't just teens.  I'm frankly surprised there are not more accidents.

Isn't this forbidden by law in the US?

In Norway it became forbidden to use a cellphone while driving for about 10 years ago. People still use their phones, but not as often as before and at least they can be fined for it now.

It's prohibited in most states, but people do it anyway.

nereo

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2019, 07:50:53 AM »
I take the bus to work every day, travelling along two main highways.  I almost always have a window seat, and from the elevated bus seat position, you can see into all of the passenger cars and trucks on the road.  I'm continually astounded about how many people text while driving (or at least check their phones on their lap).  It's like universal.  You always hear talk of teens texting and driving, but trust me, it ain't just teens.  I'm frankly surprised there are not more accidents.

Isn't this forbidden by law in the US?

In Norway it became forbidden to use a cellphone while driving for about 10 years ago. People still use their phones, but not as often as before and at least they can be fined for it now.

It's prohibited in most states, but people do it anyway.

Ironically, I saw one study that showed how driving fatalities went UP after different municipalities banned texting and talking, because the drivers would then keep the phones in their lap (to avoid being 'seen') yet continue to text.  The result was even greater levels of distraction, as drivers were staring down into their laps rather than holding their phone up near the steering wheel.

I have no tolerance for texting while driving.  You are literally operating a multi-ton object at lethal speeds just feet from other fragile humans - if you drive drunk and kill someone you're likely to wind up with vehicular manslaughter charges and prison time. Yet by and large we treat 'distracted driving' as something lesser, where the perpetrator is more likely to lose their license and have some community service (if that).

HBFIRE

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #20 on: June 28, 2019, 04:12:26 AM »
As I get older, I've realized there are only 3 categories that really matter after the basic needs of food and shelter - Time, Health, Relationships.  Money is a tool to improve these.

I think you've already hit on the last two.  The first one is easy to take for granted and is probably the most important resource we have.  Wasting this resource is a very real risk.  I don't have any suggestions on how to manage time, just that we should be more acutely aware of how precious it is and make sure it's used as wisely as possible.  The internet, for example, while an invaluable tool is also a major time suck.  I often reflect at how much time I've wasted since it was introduced and it's a bit depressing.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 04:16:01 AM by HBFIRE »

A Fella from Stella

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2019, 05:34:47 AM »
5. Driving accidents - Probability: low to moderate, impact: low to high. Management: Drive less. Don't drive while fatigued. Try to avoid driving when people are likely to be drunk. Teach your kids as best you can how to drive well and manage their own driving risk.

In the last 18 months I have been hit 4 times. 3 times were commuting, 3 times the vehicle was totaled, and 1 time I was almost killed, but came away okay in the end - I'm walking, working out, having sex, etc.

SwordGuy

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #22 on: June 28, 2019, 10:20:53 AM »
5. Driving accidents - Probability: low to moderate, impact: low to high. Management: Drive less. Don't drive while fatigued. Try to avoid driving when people are likely to be drunk. Teach your kids as best you can how to drive well and manage their own driving risk.

In the last 18 months I have been hit 4 times. 3 times were commuting, 3 times the vehicle was totaled, and 1 time I was almost killed, but came away okay in the end - I'm walking, working out, having sex, etc.

Time for a Defensive Driving course?

A Fella from Stella

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #23 on: June 28, 2019, 11:09:18 AM »
5. Driving accidents - Probability: low to moderate, impact: low to high. Management: Drive less. Don't drive while fatigued. Try to avoid driving when people are likely to be drunk. Teach your kids as best you can how to drive well and manage their own driving risk.

In the last 18 months I have been hit 4 times. 3 times were commuting, 3 times the vehicle was totaled, and 1 time I was almost killed, but came away okay in the end - I'm walking, working out, having sex, etc.

Time for a Defensive Driving course?

Accident 1: Traffic slowed, guy was looking at phone. (totaled, but I kept the vehicle)
Accident 2: I didn't know, but my blinker was out because of accident 1, so when slowing to change into a turning lane, a kid with a heavy foot tried to shoot around me, and hit me. (totaled, and I got a new car)
Accident 3: Tiny bumper tap on parkway; the guy offered $300 in exchange to not lose the whole evening. I agreed.
Accident 4: Traffic completely stops on highway, at a spot where it frequently does as 3 lanes merge into 2. I'm sitting there about 10-20 seconds when I'm hit at full speed. According to a witness, the guy didn't hit his brakes, or swerve to miss me. According to his statement, he was "looking at his cigarettes." (totaled. Ambulance couldn't believe how well I was. The cop at the hospital looked really shaken up coming to see me. The guys at the salvage yard the next day couldn't believe I was the one in that vehicle as I went to get my stuff)

RyanAtTanagra

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #24 on: June 28, 2019, 11:19:07 AM »
5. Driving accidents - Probability: low to moderate, impact: low to high. Management: Drive less. Don't drive while fatigued. Try to avoid driving when people are likely to be drunk. Teach your kids as best you can how to drive well and manage their own driving risk.

In the last 18 months I have been hit 4 times. 3 times were commuting, 3 times the vehicle was totaled, and 1 time I was almost killed, but came away okay in the end - I'm walking, working out, having sex, etc.

Time for a Defensive Driving course?

Accident 1: Traffic slowed, guy was looking at phone. (totaled, but I kept the vehicle)
Accident 2: I didn't know, but my blinker was out because of accident 1, so when slowing to change into a turning lane, a kid with a heavy foot tried to shoot around me, and hit me. (totaled, and I got a new car)
Accident 3: Tiny bumper tap on parkway; the guy offered $300 in exchange to not lose the whole evening. I agreed.
Accident 4: Traffic completely stops on highway, at a spot where it frequently does as 3 lanes merge into 2. I'm sitting there about 10-20 seconds when I'm hit at full speed. According to a witness, the guy didn't hit his brakes, or swerve to miss me. According to his statement, he was "looking at his cigarettes." (totaled. Ambulance couldn't believe how well I was. The cop at the hospital looked really shaken up coming to see me. The guys at the salvage yard the next day couldn't believe I was the one in that vehicle as I went to get my stuff)

So all hits from behind?  As a full-time motorcyclist, always ALWAYS watch your rear view, and have an out.  You still have a lot of control over being rear ended.

ETA:  This is also why I give A LOT of distance to cars in front of me.  Not so I can stop, but so when the car in front of me slams on their brakes, I have room to slow down casually and tap my brakes to give the person behind me time to react.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 11:24:37 AM by RyanAtTanagra »

Linea_Norway

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #25 on: June 28, 2019, 11:22:54 AM »
5. Driving accidents - Probability: low to moderate, impact: low to high. Management: Drive less. Don't drive while fatigued. Try to avoid driving when people are likely to be drunk. Teach your kids as best you can how to drive well and manage their own driving risk.

In the last 18 months I have been hit 4 times. 3 times were commuting, 3 times the vehicle was totaled, and 1 time I was almost killed, but came away okay in the end - I'm walking, working out, having sex, etc.

Time for a Defensive Driving course?

Accident 1: Traffic slowed, guy was looking at phone. (totaled, but I kept the vehicle)
Accident 2: I didn't know, but my blinker was out because of accident 1, so when slowing to change into a turning lane, a kid with a heavy foot tried to shoot around me, and hit me. (totaled, and I got a new car)
Accident 3: Tiny bumper tap on parkway; the guy offered $300 in exchange to not lose the whole evening. I agreed.
Accident 4: Traffic completely stops on highway, at a spot where it frequently does as 3 lanes merge into 2. I'm sitting there about 10-20 seconds when I'm hit at full speed. According to a witness, the guy didn't hit his brakes, or swerve to miss me. According to his statement, he was "looking at his cigarettes." (totaled. Ambulance couldn't believe how well I was. The cop at the hospital looked really shaken up coming to see me. The guys at the salvage yard the next day couldn't believe I was the one in that vehicle as I went to get my stuff)

Especially number 4 is scary. A wonder that you came out in one piece and fully functional.
I often imagine this can happen when I am on a 100km/h road where the traffic suddenly stops. Last time it was myself who only saw at last moment that the two cars in front of me were suddenly going for a full stop. I was not looking at anything else than the road. I was just able to stop in time, like half a meter from the car in front of me.

A Fella from Stella

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #26 on: June 28, 2019, 12:33:18 PM »
5. Driving accidents - Probability: low to moderate, impact: low to high. Management: Drive less. Don't drive while fatigued. Try to avoid driving when people are likely to be drunk. Teach your kids as best you can how to drive well and manage their own driving risk.

In the last 18 months I have been hit 4 times. 3 times were commuting, 3 times the vehicle was totaled, and 1 time I was almost killed, but came away okay in the end - I'm walking, working out, having sex, etc.

Time for a Defensive Driving course?

Accident 1: Traffic slowed, guy was looking at phone. (totaled, but I kept the vehicle)
Accident 2: I didn't know, but my blinker was out because of accident 1, so when slowing to change into a turning lane, a kid with a heavy foot tried to shoot around me, and hit me. (totaled, and I got a new car)
Accident 3: Tiny bumper tap on parkway; the guy offered $300 in exchange to not lose the whole evening. I agreed.
Accident 4: Traffic completely stops on highway, at a spot where it frequently does as 3 lanes merge into 2. I'm sitting there about 10-20 seconds when I'm hit at full speed. According to a witness, the guy didn't hit his brakes, or swerve to miss me. According to his statement, he was "looking at his cigarettes." (totaled. Ambulance couldn't believe how well I was. The cop at the hospital looked really shaken up coming to see me. The guys at the salvage yard the next day couldn't believe I was the one in that vehicle as I went to get my stuff)

So all hits from behind?  As a full-time motorcyclist, always ALWAYS watch your rear view, and have an out.  You still have a lot of control over being rear ended.

ETA:  This is also why I give A LOT of distance to cars in front of me.  Not so I can stop, but so when the car in front of me slams on their brakes, I have room to slow down casually and tap my brakes to give the person behind me time to react.

In #2 I was sideswiped and could have looked better as I merged with the lane being available.

In 1 & 3, the highways were extremely crowded. Only in #1 did I get knocked into the vehicle in front of me.

Had I been watching the rearview in #4, I could have scooted out of the way. There was plenty of time, at least a few solid seconds that I could have registered and gunned it.

A Fella from Stella

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #27 on: June 28, 2019, 12:36:35 PM »
5. Driving accidents - Probability: low to moderate, impact: low to high. Management: Drive less. Don't drive while fatigued. Try to avoid driving when people are likely to be drunk. Teach your kids as best you can how to drive well and manage their own driving risk.

In the last 18 months I have been hit 4 times. 3 times were commuting, 3 times the vehicle was totaled, and 1 time I was almost killed, but came away okay in the end - I'm walking, working out, having sex, etc.

Time for a Defensive Driving course?

Accident 1: Traffic slowed, guy was looking at phone. (totaled, but I kept the vehicle)
Accident 2: I didn't know, but my blinker was out because of accident 1, so when slowing to change into a turning lane, a kid with a heavy foot tried to shoot around me, and hit me. (totaled, and I got a new car)
Accident 3: Tiny bumper tap on parkway; the guy offered $300 in exchange to not lose the whole evening. I agreed.
Accident 4: Traffic completely stops on highway, at a spot where it frequently does as 3 lanes merge into 2. I'm sitting there about 10-20 seconds when I'm hit at full speed. According to a witness, the guy didn't hit his brakes, or swerve to miss me. According to his statement, he was "looking at his cigarettes." (totaled. Ambulance couldn't believe how well I was. The cop at the hospital looked really shaken up coming to see me. The guys at the salvage yard the next day couldn't believe I was the one in that vehicle as I went to get my stuff)

Especially number 4 is scary. A wonder that you came out in one piece and fully functional.
I often imagine this can happen when I am on a 100km/h road where the traffic suddenly stops. Last time it was myself who only saw at last moment that the two cars in front of me were suddenly going for a full stop. I was not looking at anything else than the road. I was just able to stop in time, like half a meter from the car in front of me.

Agreed. I had a cut on my right shin, and initially thought I broke my arm, but it was nerve damage that was gone the next day.

In the AM, touched the sky, touched my toes, and couldn't believe how well I felt.

However, a night later I went to lay down and felt tremendous strain in the muscles of my neck and abdomen that last 4 days and made sleeping very uncomfortable.

A last note: The Honda Civic is built to take a hit. The trunk and bumper folded up and over the rear glass, but no glass broke. And I was hit at 60 mph standing still by a mid-size car.

DaMa

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Re: What are the real risks? And how do you manage them?
« Reply #28 on: June 29, 2019, 12:42:14 PM »
I recently heard of someone who was hit 9 times in the past 2 years -- all similar to you and none where she was at fault.  Worst part was her auto insurance rates have gone up a lot (Michigan).