Wade Pfau is doing a Reddit AMA right now - 12:30pm Eastern 10/31

[Eric]

If any of you are interested, longtime retirement researcher Wade Pfau is doing an "Ask Me Anything" question and answer session on the Reddit Financial Independence sub.  It's live right now if you want to get any questions in.

https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/79wbhb/hi_im_wade_pfau_professor_of_retirement_income_at/

[Bruinguy]

Interesting, he mentioned investing in inflation-adjusted I-Bonds at Treasury direct, which apparently you can purchase up to $10,000 per year per SSN.  Given the uncertainty of bond performance in general, I wonder whether the inflation adjustment on this makes it a good substitute?  (Acknowledging that, given the cap, implementation could take a long time.)

[Yankuba]

Re: the 4% rule:

"I am concerned about 4% being too high at the present for someone without much flexibility to reduce spending after market downturns. Reasons include: our extremely low interest rates plus high stock valuations have not been tested in the US historical data; the 4% rule has not worked internationally -- only in the US and Canada but not in 18 other countries with data back to 1900; 30 years may not be long enough any more, especially for early retirees; it is hard for investors to earn the underlying index market returns net of fees"

and

"For someone with flexibility and capacity to reduce spending as necessary, 4% isn't too high. But if spending needs to remain fairly fixed, then I think 3% gives about as much confidence as 4% historically provides with all of the other 4% rule assumptions mixed in."

[PizzaSteve]

My read is that even experts can only see the same data we see, select from the same investment options we have.  After educating ourselves, we each need to make our own risk assessment, asset allocation, expense or reward decisions, behavior assessments, etc.  Then place our bets.

No one can predict the future.  Some are optimistic, some pessimistic.  Believing strongly in stocks or the abilability of work may not impact our actual future returns or work options.  Us older forum members have seen a lot or heard first hand accounts of war, famine, or depressions.  Also boom times.  Who knows the future....no one.

One more smart data point.  Curious where these great deal annuities are.