Author Topic: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt  (Read 13117 times)

spokey doke

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Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« on: March 01, 2017, 08:40:22 AM »
The recent market run-up has the stache rocketing past our FI number, which has me feeling a bit giddy, even though I know it can all change dramatically any time, and even though the run-up appears to be due to things I don't otherwise support...so lots of mixed emotions right now.

Contrast this with last summer, looking at sweating out the first years of ER fearing sequence of returns risks amidst all the low growth predictions and recommendations for padding one's stache and lowering one's assumed SWR (I left my career just a bit shy of our number).

Others?

And just for the record...I plan to stay the course, of course, continue to rebalance to my AA, and keep to the mustachian lifestyle.
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Mr. Green

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2017, 08:45:07 AM »
Love run ups. The next correction/recession will be a loss of whatever percentage it turns out to be. In my mind, the higher we go the higher the starting point is for the loss, which means a higher low in the trough. The higher we go the more it pads older shares bought in at much lower prices. That's how I choose to look at it psychologically.

TheAnonOne

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2017, 08:46:47 AM »
The market might NEVER drop below today's price again. It's hard to say.

If you are worried, work a OMY and then get out but don't let your emotions get the best of you.

Also, CONGRATS ON FI. Jellies

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Itchyfeet

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2017, 09:44:31 AM »
We are less than 2 years from our planned RE date and are rocketing towards our number.

Hopefully the spurt is a permanent one.

Slee_stack

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2017, 10:59:50 AM »
Its nicer than a run down, but it doesn't much change my strategy.

If you want to dampen your outlook, use a 6mo (or more) running net worth average for your goal.  ('dampen' in an engineering sense)

bender

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2017, 11:40:56 AM »
Good post, I'm thinking the same thing.  Looking at 20%+ returns over the last 12 months feels pretty good!

spokey doke

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2017, 11:51:59 AM »
If you want to dampen your outlook, use a 6mo (or more) running net worth average for your goal.  ('dampen' in an engineering sense)

as an aside: I don't know why ^this^ (6; 12; 18 month...or more) running average isn't recommended more often, in terms of gauging when you 'hit your number'
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TheAnonOne

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2017, 11:55:28 AM »
If you want to dampen your outlook, use a 6mo (or more) running net worth average for your goal.  ('dampen' in an engineering sense)

as an aside: I don't know why ^this^ (6; 12; 18 month...or more) running average isn't recommended more often, in terms of gauging when you 'hit your number'
Right... it is ultimately a little safer to do this. Though, assuming you coasted into FI rather than blasted into it via a super fast run up you should be ok.

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bender

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2017, 01:02:41 PM »
Dampening the number can work the other way too.  If you coasted into FI with a slow and steady market then the market takes a dive a few months before your planned RE date, I wouldn't think of using the more optimistic, larger, 'dampened' number.


MDM

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2017, 01:18:42 PM »
The recent market run-up has the stache rocketing past our FI number, which has me feeling a bit giddy...even though the run-up appears to be due to things I don't otherwise support...so lots of mixed emotions right now.

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2017, 01:23:51 PM »
We are less than 2 years from our planned RE date and are rocketing towards our number.

Hopefully the spurt is a permanent one.

I'm FIRE'ing in June 2018, and am using this market run-up as a means of selling some winners, and putting the cash into "Basket 1" (3 years of cash spending needs, need to fill that sucker up within the next year).
I'm retiring in 2018, read about it at The Retirement Manifesto.

Itchyfeet

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2017, 08:33:50 PM »
We are less than 2 years from our planned RE date and are rocketing towards our number.

Hopefully the spurt is a permanent one.

I'm FIRE'ing in June 2018, and am using this market run-up as a means of selling some winners, and putting the cash into "Basket 1" (3 years of cash spending needs, need to fill that sucker up within the next year).

We will save up the cash part of our stash in the last 6 months of working. I will only be holding 6 months expenses in cash post FIRE. In a major market correction we could stretch that cash to last 12 months to delay selling anything.

TheStachery

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2017, 08:54:03 PM »
Call it a Trump bump or whatever you want. My NW has never been higher.  Hit a significant milestone today.  Drank glass of wine to mark the occasion.


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dragoncar

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2017, 09:45:52 PM »
I think a lot of people use a running average for expenses too

DeskJockey2028

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2017, 08:21:15 AM »
Last night I had a glass of scotch to celebrate! It's neat to see and I love looking at my numbers going up, up, up but it doesn't change how I operate now or how I'm going to operate a month, a year or six years from now. I'll just keep shoveling money in and making sure my investments are as balanced as I can make them.

I am rather glad that I finally kicked in money to start a Roth IRA on the 17th of last month. My baby IRA has grown so fast in the past 3 weeks! :)

bender

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2017, 11:52:15 AM »
Ran the monthly numbers last night.  Feb NW increased by more than 1 year's worth of expenses.  Hard not to get excited about that!

dragoncar

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2017, 12:34:57 PM »
Ran the monthly numbers last night.  Feb NW increased by more than 1 year's worth of expenses.  Hard not to get excited about that!

I love that, but I hate it when my monthly losses are more than 1 year's worth of savings (it's happened to me)

goateeman

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2017, 01:47:51 PM »
I don't even pay attention to this stuff.

I had a net worth of around $800k before the recession, lost $100k to a bad real estate venture.

Then had my investments go to about $500k.  I wasn't worried at all.  Now it's back and I'm at over $1 million total net worth.  Won't change my plan.

I have $100k in cash, that I plan to live on should things go sour, and leave the investments to continue growing until I quality for social security and have to spend more.

Metric Mouse

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #18 on: March 02, 2017, 09:52:20 PM »
Love run ups. The next correction/recession will be a loss of whatever percentage it turns out to be. In my mind, the higher we go the higher the starting point is for the loss, which means a higher low in the trough. The higher we go the more it pads older shares bought in at much lower prices. That's how I choose to look at it psychologically.
This is how i always look at it.
Give me one fine day of plain sailing weather and I can mess up anything.

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #19 on: March 03, 2017, 10:22:24 AM »
Love run ups. The next correction/recession will be a loss of whatever percentage it turns out to be. In my mind, the higher we go the higher the starting point is for the loss, which means a higher low in the trough. The higher we go the more it pads older shares bought in at much lower prices. That's how I choose to look at it psychologically.
This is how i always look at it.
Meh, I have a very boring look. I just don't really care what the value is. I feel more anxiety with it rising than falling for some reason.

Maybe I feel like it's all unearned and fake in some way? Who knows!

I'll keep buying, but now a few less shares a month! Boo (Though, being 50k richer than November is pretty nice)

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sol

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #20 on: March 03, 2017, 10:47:31 AM »
Based on the predictions I made back in 2011/12, the market could crash 37% today and I'd still be ahead of schedule. 

We've had a fantastic run over the past 8 years, I have no complaints about today's valuations.  We're living in the golden age of early retirements.

Mmm_Donuts

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #21 on: March 04, 2017, 02:38:28 AM »
Based on the predictions I made back in 2011/12, the market could crash 37% today and I'd still be ahead of schedule. 

We've had a fantastic run over the past 8 years, I have no complaints about today's valuations.  We're living in the golden age of early retirements.

This last part makes me nervous. When so many of us are able to retire, doesn't it start to feel like a massive bubble?

I also find myself way more tempted to spend money. We are newly and tentatively FIREd, so I'm really trying to subdue this urge. But... Our house (Toronto) has increased in value by about 30% this past year to an absolutely ridiculous amount. Our financial assets have been going up about $20k/ month the past few months. Everything is feeling very frothy, so I don't want to get used to this. But mentally I'm really fighting the urge to SPENDspendspend. Every day browsing websites for nice clothes, makeup, handbags, etc. Argh!!

Anyone else going through this? How do you deal with this urge to shop? It's very confusing because I've spent so many years deprogramming myself against consumerism. I typically hate shopping. With this kind of run-up, it feels like my old defence mechanisms are slipping away. Yet we really can't afford to loosen the reins, since we have such a long retirement ahead, and aren't through the period where sequence of returns risk matters. A crash (housing or financial markets) could be devastating, and is certain to happen at some point. I'm basically trying not to feel rich, or start acting like a rich person, because it could fall away at any moment.

nottoolatetostart

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #22 on: March 04, 2017, 06:49:25 AM »
During the 300pt gain the other day, I happened to be watching a busines network (I never watch TV during the day but this I had to see market giddiness) and one of the commentators was saying the most recent consumer optimism report was out and the last time it was this high was Summer 1996 (maybe we had summer euphoria of Atlanta games that summer). That summer. I remember we bought a personal PC and I started using AOL around that time, for what its worth.  Anyway, in 1996, Greenspan made infamous comment of 'irrational exuberance' and the market went on to have 3 more yrs of a bull run. Also, consumer optimism is on uptick (which I also heard about last month). I need more research on this

Either way, while Personal Capital reflects increase in NW, my lonely spreadsheet is just hoping and praying for a 7% annual increase over Dec 31, 2016 balances. It does not know about this year yet.....not until Jan 1, 2018.

Did buy a bottle of wine last night, but no other unusual spending.

Acorns

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #23 on: March 04, 2017, 03:58:53 PM »

I also find myself way more tempted to spend money

Anyone else going through this?

My family needs a new car, we were planning on waiting a while longer but given the recent run-up in value I'm thinking we might pull some money out of a taxable savings account and put it towards the car. My car has needed over $4,000 in repairs over the past year and I don't think it's going to last much longer and I really don't want to wait because the way things go, when the market crashes and it's a really bad time to sell is when my car will finally just die. So I don't know if that qualifies as being tempted to spend way more money than I normally would, but I figure if there's a big ticket item we need, now might be a good time to make the purchase.

Grande

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #24 on: March 04, 2017, 06:14:10 PM »
It's 10% rise in the SP500 since the election. It does feel good. When you look at your balances why wouldn't it?

Just remember the whole investing thing (at least the one I play now) is essentially junior high math with an absolute need to have your emotions well in control. You can't control the market, you only can control how you react to it.

10% math/90% emotion.

Monkey Uncle

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #25 on: March 05, 2017, 06:09:19 AM »
Any time I start to feel giddy about the run-up in the stock market, I just think about how much more health insurance is going to cost than I had originally planned.  That brings me down to earth real quick.
"Take this job and shove it" - David Allan Coe

dandypandys

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #26 on: March 05, 2017, 06:37:57 AM »
i feel excited that I only fairly recently got in on this investing stuff, and opened IRAs for hubs and I, and upped my contributions, just in time to take part in this ride upwards :)
I don't know how many years to my FI though.
What is the easiest calculator out there to use? Maybe there is no point trying to figure it all out though as what will be will be.

BlueMR2

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #27 on: March 05, 2017, 06:52:12 AM »
Looking at the historical slope, I see this more of a "catchup" to where we should be than a "runup" into a bubble.  Time will tell of course, but to me it's more of a correction for the underperformance of the last few years.  Still, I'm cautious and won't be rushing into any hasty decisions!  Run the plan!

As others have mentioned, the health care thing is the scary part.  No increase this year on my plan, but the prior 3-4 years all saw tremendous increases.  Just 10 years ago when I was out of work my insurance was $62/mo for really good coverage.  Looking at $600/mo now if I retired for coverage that's nowhere near as good.  This is not sustainable.  Sigh.  Well, somehow people mostly got along without much healthcare in the past.  A lot of dying younger, but maybe that's the future, we just can't afford to provide top notch health care to *everyone* as there just are not enough resources to go around.

BTDretire

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #28 on: March 05, 2017, 11:10:47 AM »
Seems like a bunch of humble bragging in here!
OK me to, my vanguard acount is up $63K from Jan 1st to Mar 1st.
 On the other hand, I watched the 9 months from 5-31-08 to 2-28-09,
when my Vanguard balance fell by $181,800. That was about a 40% loss.
  Maybe that will temper your giddy. :-)

Stachless

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #29 on: March 05, 2017, 11:43:40 AM »
For those of us still accumulating, its sobering to think that in the entire history of the market, nobody has ever paid more for a share of VTSAX than us.

shuffler

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #30 on: March 05, 2017, 12:52:50 PM »
For those of us still accumulating, its sobering to think that in the entire history of the market, nobody has ever paid more for a share of VTSAX than us.
Everybody has that experience.  It's nothing new or unusual.

gerardc

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #31 on: March 05, 2017, 01:11:03 PM »
Dampening the number can work the other way too.  If you coasted into FI with a slow and steady market then the market takes a dive a few months before your planned RE date, I wouldn't think of using the more optimistic, larger, 'dampened' number.

Just use the min of the last 6 months instead of the average. I.e. your stash needs to exceed your target for 6 months straight.

See this thread about how it affects your SWR:
forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/cfiresim-severely-overestimates-success-rates-for-mustachians/

Metric Mouse

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #32 on: March 06, 2017, 08:47:13 AM »
For those of us still accumulating, its sobering to think that in the entire history of the market, nobody has ever paid more for a share of VTSAX than us.
Everybody has that experience.  It's nothing new or unusual.
Right? The market spends the majority of its time at or near its all-time high.
Give me one fine day of plain sailing weather and I can mess up anything.

MustacheMathTM

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #33 on: March 06, 2017, 09:39:15 AM »
Instead of some crazy 4% rule, why not just put two year's of living expenses into a corporate bond fund, and when the market crashes withdraw from there instead.  When it recovers, sell some stocks off to replenish this fund.  I always thought the 4% rule is foolish and completely unnecessary.  It's like a number picked out of a magic rabbit hat. 
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Bateaux

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #34 on: March 06, 2017, 09:44:59 AM »
Don't let the run up change your saving or spending habits.  Even though stocks are expensive now, keep buying if you are still working.  Keep the money out of your hands and going to work.  When the bubble pops keep investing just as before, you'll be buying at a discount.   Slow and steady will smooth out the rough spots.  We eventually return to an average.  Sure it feels euphoric to watch 1000 point gains on the Dow.  It's also discouraging when it drops 5,000 in a week.  Stay the course.  Boring? Yes.  Effective? Yes.  Realize that we'll be buying the discounted shares of the panic sellers next drop.  Some of them are just buying VTSAX and paying the premium for us.
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Eric

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #35 on: March 06, 2017, 09:59:28 AM »
Instead of some crazy 4% rule, why not just put two year's of living expenses into a corporate bond fund, and when the market crashes withdraw from there instead. 

That's not mutually exclusive.  You can hold bonds while using a 4% WR.

When it recovers, sell some stocks off to replenish this fund. 

Rebalancing is a regular part of investing.  This should happen whether it's a bull or bear market.

I always thought the 4% rule is foolish and completely unnecessary.  It's like a number picked out of a magic rabbit hat.

Well then it's pretty obvious you don't know much about it.  It was chosen using historical data, not arbitrarily.  Maybe you want to read about the origins to learn a bit more? 
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

Eric

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #36 on: March 06, 2017, 10:22:47 AM »
We are less than 2 years from our planned RE date and are rocketing towards our number.

Hopefully the spurt is a permanent one.

Me too now, but I've made a slight change to my "hit number then retire" plan.  Basically, at the start of the year, I calculated that with zero market returns over the next 2 years, that I'd hit my number based on savings alone.  So I decided that I was going to work those two years no matter market performance.  That way, if this big run up continues, I will have extra padding for the next drop.  If not, then I'm prepared as well.  Of course if there's a big drop between now and then, the 2 years might get extended a bit, but then I won't feel anxious about retiring at the top.
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

Itchyfeet

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #37 on: March 06, 2017, 10:33:01 AM »
We are less than 2 years from our planned RE date and are rocketing towards our number.

Hopefully the spurt is a permanent one.

Me too now, but I've made a slight change to my "hit number then retire" plan.  Basically, at the start of the year, I calculated that with zero market returns over the next 2 years, that I'd hit my number based on savings alone.  So I decided that I was going to work those two years no matter market performance.  That way, if this big run up continues, I will have extra padding for the next drop.  If not, then I'm prepared as well.  Of course if there's a big drop between now and then, the 2 years might get extended a bit, but then I won't feel anxious about retiring at the top.

It's the sensible thing to do. I had a crap day at work, so was again thinking.... maybe I could roll the dice on a 5% WR, or cut some costs and just finish in July..... but for many reasons, including the current valuations, I came to the same damn conclusion I always do. December 2018 is the absolute earliest I can walk. December 2019 is the absolute longest I will work.

Eric

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #38 on: March 06, 2017, 10:37:02 AM »
We are less than 2 years from our planned RE date and are rocketing towards our number.

Hopefully the spurt is a permanent one.

Me too now, but I've made a slight change to my "hit number then retire" plan.  Basically, at the start of the year, I calculated that with zero market returns over the next 2 years, that I'd hit my number based on savings alone.  So I decided that I was going to work those two years no matter market performance.  That way, if this big run up continues, I will have extra padding for the next drop.  If not, then I'm prepared as well.  Of course if there's a big drop between now and then, the 2 years might get extended a bit, but then I won't feel anxious about retiring at the top.

It's the sensible thing to do. I had a crap day at work, so was again thinking.... maybe I could roll the dice on a 5% WR, or cut some costs and just finish in July..... but for many reasons, including the current valuations, I came to the same damn conclusion I always do. December 2018 is the absolute earliest I can walk. December 2019 is the absolute longest I will work.

Sucks being so reasonable sometimes.  LOL
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

Dicey

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #39 on: March 06, 2017, 11:04:41 AM »
Nice convo, lots of great comments, especially Mr.Green and goateeman. Plus Sol. Never forget about still-waters-run-deep Sol. Good stuff!

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JoJo

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #40 on: March 06, 2017, 11:57:57 AM »
I've been thinking about my 'stache and thinking I have so much, it's totally time to retire.  But then I look at the history and realize from age 30-36 my stache stayed totally flat (combination of taking 2 years off work, buying a condo at the worst possible time, and fund holdings go down during the recession despite making over 100K a year).  So from age 36 to 43, the stache as quintupled.  Just makes me weary of "easy come, easy go".


Metric Mouse

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #41 on: March 07, 2017, 06:55:03 PM »
I've been thinking about my 'stache and thinking I have so much, it's totally time to retire.  But then I look at the history and realize from age 30-36 my stache stayed totally flat (combination of taking 2 years off work, buying a condo at the worst possible time, and fund holdings go down during the recession despite making over 100K a year).  So from age 36 to 43, the stache as quintupled.  Just makes me weary of "easy come, easy go".
The way I look at this: worst case scenario your stache stays flat. Not so bad if one can live off of it without drawing it down in real terms.
Give me one fine day of plain sailing weather and I can mess up anything.

MustacheMathTM

Bateaux

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #42 on: March 09, 2017, 01:16:53 PM »
We've passed the minimum FIRE amount.  Working on safety, keeping employers health care, more elaborate spending if desired in FIRE and what we can pass on now.  Our wealth is building at $500 or more per day. It's hard to turn it off.
“Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.”
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Metric Mouse

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #43 on: March 10, 2017, 06:02:31 AM »
We've passed the minimum FIRE amount.  Working on safety, keeping employers health care, more elaborate spending if desired in FIRE and what we can pass on now.  Our wealth is building at $500 or more per day. It's hard to turn it off.
Holy smokes ! Awesome!
Give me one fine day of plain sailing weather and I can mess up anything.

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surfhb

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #44 on: March 12, 2017, 07:30:55 PM »
Based on the posts in this thread I'll assume most of you are under 40 and have been investing less than  10-15 years?    Come back and visit this thread when markets tank 40 percent or so.  ;)

EnjoyIt

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #45 on: March 12, 2017, 08:41:26 PM »
I alway get a little concerned when the market becomes too optimistic.  I prefer it when people are out there talking about a correction coming in the near future or valuations are too high.  Lets see how long the Trump rally will last and if it will outlast Trump.  To bad no one can predict the future.

Bateaux

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #46 on: March 12, 2017, 10:09:16 PM »
Based on the posts in this thread I'll assume most of you are under 40 and have been investing less than  10-15 years?    Come back and visit this thread when markets tank 40 percent or so.  ;)

Not me.  Wish I was that young I'm 48.  My estimated $500 daily NW gains are based upon a 7% return plus new dollars added in.   Hopefully I'll make more than 7% return.
“Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.”
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Stachless

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #47 on: March 13, 2017, 04:39:51 AM »
For those of us still accumulating, its sobering to think that in the entire history of the market, nobody has ever paid more for a share of VTSAX than us.
Everybody has that experience.  It's nothing new or unusual.
Right? The market spends the majority of its time at or near its all-time high.

The problem with youth is that it is wasted on the young!  For the record, it took the NASDAQ 15 years to to break the 5,000 point mark it had originally set on March 9th, 2000. 

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #48 on: March 13, 2017, 06:10:16 AM »
Based on the predictions I made back in 2011/12, the market could crash 37% today and I'd still be ahead of schedule. 

We've had a fantastic run over the past 8 years, I have no complaints about today's valuations.  We're living in the golden age of early retirements.

This last part makes me nervous. When so many of us are able to retire, doesn't it start to feel like a massive bubble?

I also find myself way more tempted to spend money. We are newly and tentatively FIREd, so I'm really trying to subdue this urge. But... Our house (Toronto) has increased in value by about 30% this past year to an absolutely ridiculous amount. Our financial assets have been going up about $20k/ month the past few months. Everything is feeling very frothy, so I don't want to get used to this. But mentally I'm really fighting the urge to SPENDspendspend. Every day browsing websites for nice clothes, makeup, handbags, etc. Argh!!

Anyone else going through this? How do you deal with this urge to shop?
It's very confusing because I've spent so many years deprogramming myself against consumerism. I typically hate shopping. With this kind of run-up, it feels like my old defence mechanisms are slipping away. Yet we really can't afford to loosen the reins, since we have such a long retirement ahead, and aren't through the period where sequence of returns risk matters. A crash (housing or financial markets) could be devastating, and is certain to happen at some point. I'm basically trying not to feel rich, or start acting like a rich person, because it could fall away at any moment.

I tend to spend that time browsing the forums here, instead of Amazon or Zappos or whatever.  :-)  Trying to be Mustachian requires you to swim upstream out in the real world, fighting a tide of commercialism.  I find the voices here -- all these people who are living happy lives on way less than everyone around me "needs" -- to be very helpful in realigning my perspective.  Plus, you know, the easiest temptation to avoid is the one that I don't even know exists.
Laugh while you can, monkey-boy

fattest_foot

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Re: Trying not to feel too giddy about the stache's growth spurt
« Reply #49 on: March 13, 2017, 09:00:06 AM »
This is going to sound an awful lot like market timing, but I had really been hoping for a recession in the last year+ or so, based on the ~7 year cycle.

We want to retire around 2024, but I don't want to go at a market peak. My thinking was that if we'd had a recession in 2015 or 2016, that means the next peak would be around a year or two prior to FIRE. The longer this goes, the more likely our FIRE date gets close to the 2nd recession in the cycle.

Then again, the longer this run up continues, it might push our FIRE date up. And maybe the next recession isn't until 2018 or 2019, and we have even less to worry about.

An actual legitimate reason for hoping for a recession sooner than later though, is that it just means more time in the market for our contributions (which I don't project increasing much year to year). The later the stock sale comes, the less time in market for those cheap shares.