Tony Robbins: Market Timer

[Stachless]

My peoples:

I came across this article / interview with Tony Robbins, he of giant-toothed infomercial fame, and was somewhat shocked on how explicit of a  market-timer he is:

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/sectorwatch/tony-robbins-says-this-is-how-to-get-rich-when-the-market-tanks/E720A46F-98FB-4E21-B2AC-F2A03F0E9120.html?mod=MW_story_top_stories

What is to be believed here?  I know many younger folks have mostly only seen the upside to investing, but downsides are quite real as well.  If there is the pullback that "everyone" is expecting will it mark another great transfer of wealth in our time?  Other than 'stay the course' (180' opposite from Mr. Robbins) I'm not sure what to think here.

Its very rare that 'this time is different' is actually true but what if it is and more importantly what if a whole bunch of people (not including you) are positioned for it? 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts!!

[iamlindoro]

My thought is that any claim is only as good as the actual hard data that backs it up.  Unless ol' Tony can point to data that indicates market timers are more successful than they are not, it's worthless advice.

To support my own position, I offer the following data from Vanguard:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/investingtruths/investing-truth-about-emotion

Specifically, the section titled "Market-timing and performance chasing can be a drag on returns," where the performance of market timers across ten different categories is compared to the market/category. In every case, the market timers lagged the market itself.

[NorthernBlitz]

I thought his tips in the video seemed pretty reasonable.

His points seemed to be:
1) Save more and invest in stock ownership / automate this so you aren't tempted to dip into savings
2) Pick an asset allocation
3) Minimize fees
4) Own US stocks

There's some "downturn is an opportunity" type comments throw in, but my bet is that's just a behavioral device because many millennials (who the video is specifically targeted to) are reluctant to buy stocks because they lived through 2008 in their formative years. And, since he talks about allocations, these could just be comments about rebalancing.

Ultimately, I don't think this video is "how to invest" but more "you should put some time into learning how to invest". In that light, I think his tips are pretty reasonable.

[iamlindoro]

I thought his tips in the video seemed pretty reasonable.

I'm embarrassed to admit that I didn't actually watch the video and just took it on face value that it endorsed market timing. I actually agree with you that the advice offered was by and large pretty standard-fare Mustachian/Boglehead.  A downturn in the market *is* an opportunity, in that by staying the course through a correction, you supercharge your future returns.

[TheAnonOne]

I thought his tips in the video seemed pretty reasonable.

I'm embarrassed to admit that I didn't actually watch the video and just took it on face value that it endorsed market timing. I actually agree with you that the advice offered was by and large pretty standard-fare Mustachian/Boglehead.  A downturn in the market *is* an opportunity, in that by staying the course through a correction, you supercharge your future returns.

Right as long as you are not WAITING for the downturn to invest.

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[talltexan]

Didn't watch the video, but I recall Robbins endorsing something called an "all-seasons portfolio" (that I think was popularized by Ray Dalio). It resembles the golden butterfly but with more subtle fine-tuning of the proportions to (i am guessing) heavy back-testing.