Author Topic: To Buy EV or Not  (Read 5014 times)

Cmdm

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To Buy EV or Not
« on: December 29, 2021, 11:28:15 AM »
I am very torn about getting an EV vehicle.  In 2019 I sold my 10 year old Toyota Matrix for a 2018 Honda CRV (growing family/moved to snowy area).  I paid for it in full and really like it.  It gets solid gas mileage and I feel safe in it, plus I paid a reasonable price for the trim package. I also took into serious consideration the resale value of a Honda vs a similar Kia or Hyundai.  The goal was to keep this vehicle as long as possible--was hoping to have it at least 15 years, and maybe let it be my 3 year old's first car given the reliability of a Honda. HOWEVER, now with EV vehicles seeming to really be taking off I am concerned that if I hold on to it even a couple more years it is going to lose almost all of its value.  I live in WA which is implementing laws to ban ICE vehicles.  With the vehicle shortage it looks like I can actually get more than what I paid for it in 2019.  (Paid 27k, they are selling for 30K in my area).  My research is indicating the shortage of vehicles will be ending soon as supply chains are picking up.  Basically I am just really worried if I hold onto the Honda it will have no resale value in a few years and I will be forced to use a significant amount of savings to pay for an EV.  On the flip side, I am a firm believer in keeping vehicles for a long time and not needing to keep of with the Joneses.  Any thoughts?
« Last Edit: December 29, 2021, 11:31:59 AM by Cmdm »

Nick_Miller

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #1 on: December 29, 2021, 11:37:53 AM »
Well we just bought a 2022 CRV and we plan to keep it for 15 years. I don't understand how yours would "lose all value." I read a brief article about the ICE issue in your state, and the article indicated that it wouldn't pass until 2030 at the earliest, and that even then it would only ban new sales of ICE vehicles, not outlaw possession of existing ones. I would hazard a guess that plenty of folks will be buying ICE vehicles all the way up to 2030, and thus they'd be on the road until 2045 or longer? Maybe gas stations will slowly, over the next decade or two, decline in numbers, but that's still a long game and the EV infrastructure is not in place yet.

Granted, this is an odd situation you're in, given the proposed bill, but why not just drive your 2018 into the ground? It's not like the state is going to seize your CRV and the ban is only on new vehicles, so you'd likely have healthy private sector demand for your used 2018, especially from anyone wanting to 'ride out the ban' as long as they can. Just my thoughts.


Cmdm

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #2 on: December 29, 2021, 11:48:34 AM »
Thank you for your input.  I was being a little extreme/exaggerating when I said "lose all value".  Realistically now I can sell for $30K, but I think in 5 years I'd be very lucky to get half of that.  I'm mostly worried the CR-V will depreciate much quicker than I anticipated.  There is also  part of me that really wants an EV vehicle to save on gas and be more environmentally friendly I am worried the longer I wait the less I will have to put towards the other vehicle.  But then again...I  hate the idea of this whole keeping up with the Joneses/getting an EV cause everyone is.

chemistk

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2021, 11:57:58 AM »
Why not just plan to drive the car for next 10-15 years and not worry about external factors that you don't have control over?

There's no guarantee that supply chains are going to resolve soon, nor that they'll resemble what they did at the end of 2019.

Even if EV supply exponentially increases, we're still going to be getting new ICE vehicles for the next couple decades. There's just not enough capacity to build EV's at the level needed to completely supplant the ICE demand.

And even still, if somehow that does occur, existing ICE vehicles aren't going to be banned anywhere in the US other than maybe in the center of major cities + ultra progressive localities. New ICE's might be prohibited, but used sales will truck on long after EV's take up a significant portion of the new car market.

Finally, EV's make up a hilariously small percentage of the vehicles on the road today. If your social circle seems to be getting EV's at a faster rate than the general populace, just go for a drive on a major road and you'll see that EV's are still very rare. There's a lot of marketing and public discourse about them because they're the hot new thing.

If you sell it now, you're not going to be able to realize the profit if you have to turn around and buy another car. If anything, you're better off holding onto it for the next few years, selling it (for what will still be a good price), and buying a good condition used EV. 

joe189man

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2021, 12:01:40 PM »
why are you worried about resale on a nearly 20 year old vehicle, 15 years from now?

If you want an EV just do it

FINate

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2021, 12:11:35 PM »
As others have said, this is a strange thing to worry about. It's the ICE version of "top is in" market timing.

Also, it seems likely that new EV prices will decline over the next 10-20 years as battery and charging technology improves, with lower cost and longer range vehicles hitting the market. This will almost certainly put severe downward pressure on existing EV values.

Besides, ICE is not going away any time soon, with or without bans in 2030. Passenger cars will likely transition to mostly EV, but the range and charging problem for larger vehicles to haul and tow is a long way off. And yes, I know about the Tesla Semi, which is great for certain narrow use cases. Basically, gas stations aren't going away anytime soon.

Sibley

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2021, 12:14:26 PM »
What's your electrical situation look like? Can you put a 240 volt charger in?

I think you're overestimating a future drop in value. The average age of vehicles on the road in the US is around 12 years old. Which means there's a LOT of really old vehicles out there. It's going to take decades to work all the ICE vehicles through the system, and that's assuming there's 100% adoption of EV. Which there won't and can't be any time soon.

The electrical grid in the US simply can't handle all EV vehicles. It's too old, poorly maintained, and strained. Look at what happened in TX last winter - that entire mess was preventable with regular maintenance (and people smart enough to turn the water off). Until there's some substantial work done on the grid, any efforts to ban ICE is laughable. Of course, politicians aren't known for intelligence, so someone is going to do it and they're going to get crucified when the inevitable problems crop up.

And that's not factoring in the very practical issue of all the older homes out there with less than 200 amp electric service. I CAN'T install a EV charger at my home without also upgrading my service, which would also mean replacing the electric box. (and realistically, I need to rebuild the garage but that's more of an individual issue.) So for me to buy an EV I also have to include the costs of some hefty electrician bills (plus a garage). I would guess that at least 80% of my the housing in my entire region is in the same situation. That's what happens when the median age of the housing stock in the county is about 40 years old (https://eyeonhousing.org/2021/06/the-aging-housing-stock-4/). Then you have plenty of areas without dedicated parking, so how are those people going to install chargers if they don't have a garage or dedicated spot? And we certainly don't have widespread public charging options in place yet. (Apartment complexes, high rise housing, large chucks of any major city like NY, Chicago, San Fran, etc.) I'm not digging into rural areas because I don't know the specific issues, but I'm sure there's there's some serious problems to work out.

In short: Chill.

Paper Chaser

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2021, 12:17:49 PM »
The original plan was to keep it for at least 15 years and then give it to your kid. In that scenario, depreciation doesn't matter. It's going to bottom out while you own it anyway, and at that point you'll have gotten 15 years of use out of it.

There's no guarantee that an EV will depreciate less than an ICE. The only EVs that have held their value reasonably well until now are Teslas. At least some of that is due to lack of supply of desirable EVs, but as Tesla's produciton continues to increase, and other automakers actually make competitive EVs that people want, it's anybody's guess how they'll depreciate moving forward. It's entirely possible that you could buy an EV now and it would be super outdated in 5-10 years and see massive depreciation too if a new battery chemistry comes out, or the software that it relies on is no longer supported, etc. Modern cars, and especially EVs are often compared to smartphones, and nobody puts much value on old smartphones.

Is the desire for an EV primarily driven by finances or environmental concerns?

Cmdm

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2021, 12:30:18 PM »
To the guy who said "In short: chill" you are so right, lol.  As much as I want to be a good steward of my money and stay on the FIRE path I too sometimes get distracted by fancy shiny new things.  There are so many cool new cars coming out that I am getting distracted from what I know is sensible.  Thank you all for your replies.  I am going to keep my CR-V for a while longer. It is the smarter choice, particularly considering I drive very little and don't spend a ton of gas. Plus I need a larger car for strollers/car seats ect and the majority of the EV's vehicles are on the smaller side.  I appreciate you all knocking some sense into me.

KungfuRabbit

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2021, 01:48:59 PM »
I have no regrets buying my Tesla, though it had nothing to do with saving money or maximizing value of my old Subaru.  It's just an insanely fun car to drive and it makes me happy. 

There are lot of great reasons to buy one, along the lines of acceleration, handling, lack of noise, super safe, high tech feel, etc.  However, money is not on that list. 

If you are considering buying a $50k EV vs a $50k ICE car then yes, the EV is a better choice financially due to cheaper fuel costs, less maintenance, and likely better resale value.  But buying a $50k EV because your current $30k ICE may or may not lose half of its value over the next 5 years is a bit silly. 

Also, Tesla's holding resale value is a bit of a unique combination of variables.  I could literally sell my model 3 for more than I paid for it currently, because list price of the car has gone up / they are short supply and there are buyers that don't want to wait months / and there is functionally zero depreciation within a model 3 (within reasonable mileage / damage).  However, in your 5 year timeline Tesla will be making 3-5 million cars per year using better technology (structural battery pack, etc) than my car, so there will be minimal wait to get a better car = boom instant depreciation.   

GodlessCommie

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2021, 02:07:06 PM »
Trying to time the car market is kind of like trying to time the stock market: you may get lucky, you may not, but on average timers will lose. It's even worse due to high transaction cost, worse availability of data, and huge regional varioations.

We've been driving EVs since the first Leaf came on the market. Both my wife and I love it. Charging infrastructure, model selection, range - everything got so much better since then.

If you want to drive an EV, by all means go for it. I bet you'll love it. But the reason you describe is probably not the most solid one.

mastrr

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2021, 02:16:17 PM »
Personally, I'd just keep your current vehicle if you are happy with it.  It looks like the ban is going to potentially happen in 2030 and it's not like the resale value will completely diminish for a reliable Honda.  Conservative states will still have a market for gas cars and national outlets like Carmax will buy it back.  I think you can't go wrong either way as long as you don't justify selling your Honda for $32k and buying an EV for $50k.  If I were in your shoes I'd want it to be close to an even swap dollar wise.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2021, 03:03:31 PM »
Just for a point of comparison, in the US cars made after 1975 use unleaded gasoline, but leaded gasoline remained available for the better part of two decades. Considering how much longer cars last these days, and there being some significant advantages of ICE over EV, I would expect gasoline to be available for at least a similar time period (probably longer) after ICE vehicles stop being made.

K_in_the_kitchen

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #13 on: December 29, 2021, 03:17:52 PM »
I go through this in my brain every now and then -- and always come back to waiting on the EV.

We have a compact car and a campervan.  Because used car prices were insane this summer, we had son #1 take the car to university (in another state), which leave DH and I the campervan only.

Every now and then it seems unworkable, although clearly it has worked, so what it really has been at times is inconvenient.  When that happens I look at new and used cars, and since we would be buying something, the EV makes more sense from an environmental perspective.

But it doesn't make sense for other reasons, one being that whatever we buy will likely flow down to son #2 summer 2023.  It's rather complicated, but post graduation son #1 will be living with us again and we can share the nice car he currently has (which wasn't given to him).  Son #2 is planning to move out with roommates as soon as he can after graduation.  He also delayed getting his license year after year when it didn't make financial sense since he would have few opportunities to drive.  Knowing that whatever car I might buy right now will almost certainly go to son #2, I don't plan to spend a lot of money on it.  I also think that an older, low range EV is a terrible choice as the only car for a young adult.

DH thinks we should look at an electric scooter for me to use on short errands (Vespa type with a comfy seat) when I would like to have a car.  Not an e-bike -- I had one and it didn't work for me.  I need easy entry, plenty of stability, and a lack of pressure in sensitive areas.

alienbogey

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #14 on: December 29, 2021, 04:04:21 PM »
A few more factors:

•  We also live in WA, which is blessed with the lowest electricity rates in the country.  My calculations before we bought our 2017 Bolt was that we would be saving 10 cents per mile for fuel over the 25mpg minivan the Bolt replaced.  That was based on $3/gallon gas.  We have 44,000 miles on the Bolt so, easy math, we've saved over $4,400 on fuel.

•  That's approximately 8 $50 oil changes avoided, so chalk up another $400 or so saved.

•  After incentives the Bolt cost us $26,000 out of pocket.  18.5% of the cost of the car has been recouped in fuel and oil change savings alone.  At approximately 250,000 miles the car will have paid for itself compared to a 25mpg dinomobile.

•  As the car ages and adds miles it's far less likely to need extensive repairs than an ICE car.  Far fewer moving parts, fewer consumables, etc.  My 2017 research came up with a Top 10 list of the most common car repairs.  An electric car has none of the items on that list.

•  An electric's main consumables are tires, windshield wipers, and washer fluid.  (Brakes will likely last longer than the car because they're almost never used.)

Having said all that, would it make dollar & sense to replace your veteran ICE car with a new electric?  I'm guessing not in the short term, maybe in the medium, yes in the long term.

Another factor is that electrics are improving so rapidly that if you're not in a hurry then it might be better to wait and watch as performance improves across the board.  We've been so happy with our Bolt that we nearly pulled the trigger on a Tesla Model Y this fall, then found out upgrades are expected the first of the year, then saw a list of all the other new electrics coming out in 2022.  So, we'll wait and continue to enjoy the Bolt.

I, too, think that ICE vehicles will hold normal values for a while yet but, eventually, they will fade away.

In our personal circumstances (detached garage with Level II charger, the way we drive, etc) for us to ever buy another ICE car would be a waste of time and money.

YMMV

RedmondStash

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #15 on: December 29, 2021, 05:54:20 PM »
I also live in the Pacific Northwest, and I bought a 2013 Nissan Leaf back in 2018. It's been a wonderful educational experience; I've learned a ton about EVs, maintenance, battery strategies, etc. I love not going to gas stations to fill up, and the minimal service work that I need done on it. I don't love the 50-mile 100%-charge range it has now, but I knew what I was getting into when I bought such an early model. At some point, I plan to upgrade to a much newer EV, but I'm in no hurry, since this is spouse's & my second car. (One thing I've learned is to hold out for a 250-plus-mile range next time.)

My advice is to forget about the $$ side and figure out what you most want to be driving right now. Remember that just as ICE vehicles may drop in value over time, the cost of EVs should also come down over time too, so that could end up being a wash. You really don't know the future. And if you're a stock market investor, you also don't know how your investments will do over that time period, and thus what % of your stash you'd end up spending on an EV when you eventually buy, compared to today.

It's all unknowns.

I do think keeping your current car and planning to drive it into the ground is a sound strategy. Depreciation is meaningless if you don't plan to sell.

Fishindude

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #16 on: December 29, 2021, 06:44:53 PM »
In my opinion, the only reason to buy an EV is because "you simply want one" for personal environmental beliefs, etc.

There are quite a number of new gasoline engine cars that are can be purchased and operated quite economically, quite possibly cheaper than an EV.   The Hondas, Toyotas, etc. are pretty proven and bullet proof.   
If you're getting 30 mpg or better which is common for many cars, and drive 10-15,000 miles annually like most, you don't have very high operating costs.   

There are also some drawbacks to EV's such as installing a charging station at home, availability of charging stations at work, on the road, etc. and range of travel between re-charges.

Hadilly

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2021, 12:02:44 AM »
One of my parents made the really interesting suggestion that we consider leasing an EV rather than buying because the rate of technical development is so fast that leasing for three years would be better. We have two older ICE cars that still work and charging isn’t ideal  where we live, so I don’t know we will do it anytime soon.

vand

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #18 on: December 30, 2021, 04:50:35 AM »
This sounds like a straightforward case of grass is always greener to me.

Cars are depreciating assets - best just get used to that fact and get on with appreciating what your current vehicle does for you. Don't worry about the powerplant. Gasoline isn't going away anytime soon. You current car does the job, and if EVs didn't exist I'm sure you still would be very happy with it, right? EVs have their own issues which are glossed over today because they're still new and shiny.

Its generally accepted that in any transition it is the early adopters pay a premium for not always the best product. By the time all new cars are EVs then the products be better and cheaper, and also the charging infrastructure be better. I'm personally happy to let other people drive the changes that need to be made and make the switch when it becomes an automatic no-brainer.

Paper Chaser

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #19 on: December 30, 2021, 04:58:58 AM »
A few more factors:

•  We also live in WA, which is blessed with the lowest electricity rates in the country.  My calculations before we bought our 2017 Bolt was that we would be saving 10 cents per mile for fuel over the 25mpg minivan the Bolt replaced.  That was based on $3/gallon gas.  We have 44,000 miles on the Bolt so, easy math, we've saved over $4,400 on fuel.

•  That's approximately 8 $50 oil changes avoided, so chalk up another $400 or so saved.

•  After incentives the Bolt cost us $26,000 out of pocket.  18.5% of the cost of the car has been recouped in fuel and oil change savings alone.  At approximately 250,000 miles the car will have paid for itself compared to a 25mpg dinomobile.

I'm sorry to be picky, but just for the sake of clarity, EV owners in Washington state pay an extra annual fee of $225 to offset the lack of fuel taxes collected. These fees vary by location, but are becoming increasingly common and need to be factored into any financial calculations when considering an EV purchase. Not sure how many years you've owned the Bolt, but it's possible that you have over $1000 in EV related expenses during your ownership that isn't being accounted for here. And you don't seem to have accounted for electrical/charging costs. I'm not doubting that the EV might still be cheaper, but when those extra costs are factored in, the difference isn't quite as great.

ericrugiero

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #20 on: December 30, 2021, 08:26:46 AM »
I don’t think the current price premium on vehicles really changes anything for you. Your plans are long term and not affected by a relatively short spike in prices. You could sell at a premium right now but then you need to buy at a premium which cancels out the benefit. ICE vehicles aren’t going away any time soon and I can’t see a bigger price drop in them than in electric.

It could still make sense to evaluate whether an electric vehicle makes more sense than you current vehicle but don’t switch because of a predicted price collapse.

gooki

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #21 on: December 30, 2021, 11:26:22 AM »
If you're going to do it, now is the time.

1. You get a good price for your current vehicle.
2. Wait times on EV orders are manageable.

If you think supply chains are tight now, you don't want to see what it'll be like for EVs in 2-4 years as US demand goes exponential.

If if you're not going to do it now, then follow the original plan and wait another 8-13 years.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2021, 11:27:54 AM by gooki »

TomTX

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #22 on: December 30, 2021, 01:01:32 PM »

The electrical grid in the US simply can't handle all EV vehicles. It's too old, poorly maintained, and strained.

Good thing we will have decades as EVs gradually replace the existing fleet. Power companies were actually getting worried about drops in demand due to better efficiency.

In addition, as long as you're not charging at peak - the grid has plenty of capacity. How do you get people to charge off peak? Time of use pricing. Proven at scale.

Quote
Look at what happened in TX last winter - that entire mess was preventable with regular maintenance (and people smart enough to turn the water off).

The TX Icepocalypse had nothing to do with EVs, nor "turning the water off" - it was caused by cheapskate power and NG producers who failed to winterize, despite being given detailed recommendations from FERC a decade ago. A small portion of wind power also froze up, but overall wind overproduced compared to the baseline ERCOT projection for that timeframe. Coal, natural gas and nuclear were the real culprits - they claim reliability, then fall over when needed.

Of course there's corruption and an extra $11B in profits for the fossil fuel companies from scalping-level prices. Texas GQP ensured nothing would be done against them, just ensuring that consumers will pay the bill over time. They got millions in donations from the fossil fuel companies after the legislative session ended and no meaningful response or reform was passed. $5M to the governor alone.

In short, the grid problems in Texas are a political and crony capitalism issue.

Though I did shut off the water at the meter and drained the lines prior to the real cold setting in.

SYNACK

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #23 on: December 30, 2021, 01:36:26 PM »
I have a 21 year old car so looking to get a new one in the next a 12-18 months. Not in a hurry since mine still works. And I've been thinking about if I should go for an EV when the time comes. However:
- They are too shiny compared to my 21 year old car
- They are too aerodynamic
- They don't make any noise. Just think of the pedestrians around you!
- No smell or fumes. What? then how am I going to tell if the thing is running or the engine is warm enough?
- And the worse it is missing important parts. No oil or tranny or even a radiator. What were they thinking when they made this thing.
- Oh and what are the fine folks at Jiffy Lube gonna do without oil changes and handling all that waste? and the stinky gas station down the road? and the nice oil companies like Chevron? don't you feel bad for them?

Oh, yeah I'm definitely getting an EV :-)

Ron Scott

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #24 on: December 30, 2021, 02:23:57 PM »
I will never buy another non-EV.

IMO todays cars last forever (sold my 21 year-old 4Runner because she complained) but whatever.

Next one’s a Tesla.

Let’s do this. Let’s move on.

alienbogey

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #25 on: December 30, 2021, 03:43:26 PM »
A few more factors:

•  We also live in WA, which is blessed with the lowest electricity rates in the country.  My calculations before we bought our 2017 Bolt was that we would be saving 10 cents per mile for fuel over the 25mpg minivan the Bolt replaced.  That was based on $3/gallon gas.  We have 44,000 miles on the Bolt so, easy math, we've saved over $4,400 on fuel.

•  That's approximately 8 $50 oil changes avoided, so chalk up another $400 or so saved.

•  After incentives the Bolt cost us $26,000 out of pocket.  18.5% of the cost of the car has been recouped in fuel and oil change savings alone.  At approximately 250,000 miles the car will have paid for itself compared to a 25mpg dinomobile.

I'm sorry to be picky, but just for the sake of clarity, EV owners in Washington state pay an extra annual fee of $225 to offset the lack of fuel taxes collected. These fees vary by location, but are becoming increasingly common and need to be factored into any financial calculations when considering an EV purchase. Not sure how many years you've owned the Bolt, but it's possible that you have over $1000 in EV related expenses during your ownership that isn't being accounted for here. And you don't seem to have accounted for electrical/charging costs. I'm not doubting that the EV might still be cheaper, but when those extra costs are factored in, the difference isn't quite as great.

Not sorry to be picky in turn but, just for the sake of clarity, EV owners in Washington state pay an extra annual fee of $150 (not $225) to offset fuel taxes not collected.  Link:  https://www.dol.wa.gov/vehicleregistration/fees.html

<<And you don't seem to have accounted for electrical/charging costs.>>

I guess I wasn't clear enough when I said "My calculations before we bought our 2017 Bolt was that we would be saving 10 cents per mile for the cost of fuel (electrons) over the 25mpg (gas) minivan the Bolt replaced.  That was based on $3/gallon gas."  (Words in parenthesis added to quote for clarity)

I guess I could have added that, besides the $3/gallon gas I was also using the $.0785 per kilowatt hour of my local utility.  The result was, as I said, a $.10 per mile saving for fuel for our Bolt compared to our old mini van. 

Note:  Current Washington state gas prices average $3.86/gallon (Link:  https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/)  My electric utility rates haven't changed since 2017.

"I'm not doubting that the EV might still be cheaper, but when those extra costs are factored in, the difference isn't quite as great."

Yes, I failed to include the $150/year electric vehicle surcharge which started with our (I think) 2020 registration, so you can subtract $300 from the total savings that I was attempting to broadly outline.

I have no doubt whatsoever that an EV is going to be significantly cheaper to operate in the long run than its ICE equivalent.




« Last Edit: December 30, 2021, 03:45:06 PM by alienbogey »

Midwest_Handlebar

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #26 on: December 30, 2021, 06:08:10 PM »
Why not split the difference and get a 2nd generation Chevy Volt? I got a 2017 Volt in August and love it. 90% of our millage is electric and expect to have it 10+ years.

Pretty good article from a week ago: https://www.autoblog.com/2021/12/23/chevy-volt-best-used-car-opinion/
« Last Edit: December 30, 2021, 06:10:13 PM by Midwest_Handlebar »

Paper Chaser

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #27 on: December 30, 2021, 06:16:24 PM »
A few more factors:

•  We also live in WA, which is blessed with the lowest electricity rates in the country.  My calculations before we bought our 2017 Bolt was that we would be saving 10 cents per mile for fuel over the 25mpg minivan the Bolt replaced.  That was based on $3/gallon gas.  We have 44,000 miles on the Bolt so, easy math, we've saved over $4,400 on fuel.

•  That's approximately 8 $50 oil changes avoided, so chalk up another $400 or so saved.

•  After incentives the Bolt cost us $26,000 out of pocket.  18.5% of the cost of the car has been recouped in fuel and oil change savings alone.  At approximately 250,000 miles the car will have paid for itself compared to a 25mpg dinomobile.

I'm sorry to be picky, but just for the sake of clarity, EV owners in Washington state pay an extra annual fee of $225 to offset the lack of fuel taxes collected. These fees vary by location, but are becoming increasingly common and need to be factored into any financial calculations when considering an EV purchase. Not sure how many years you've owned the Bolt, but it's possible that you have over $1000 in EV related expenses during your ownership that isn't being accounted for here. And you don't seem to have accounted for electrical/charging costs. I'm not doubting that the EV might still be cheaper, but when those extra costs are factored in, the difference isn't quite as great.

Not sorry to be picky in turn but, just for the sake of clarity, EV owners in Washington state pay an extra annual fee of $150 (not $225) to offset fuel taxes not collected.  Link:  https://www.dol.wa.gov/vehicleregistration/fees.html

Yes, I failed to include the $150/year electric vehicle surcharge which started with our (I think) 2020 registration, so you can subtract $300 from the total savings that I was attempting to broadly outline.

If you look at the table in your link, a bit down from the $150 "Electric Car Fee" there's a $75 "Transportation Electrification Fee" shown. It was my understanding that all EV owners paid that in addition to the $150 fee (hence my $225 claim):

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/washingtons-hybrid-and-electric-car-owners-find-a-75-fee-in-their-new-car-tab-bills/

https://www.geekwire.com/2019/washington-state-embraces-new-fees-electric-vehicles-pursuit-greener-transportation/


I really don't mean to argue about your specific situation too much, I just wanted to make the larger point that EV costs will vary a ton based on location, and there can be many things that are easily overlooked (like multiple EV fees in the same state). It's highly individual. In some places, where EVs are incentivized by local governments, and annual fees are low, and electricity is cheap, they're quite a bit cheaper than an efficient ICE. But in locations with high fees, lack of incentives, and or expensive electricity the gap may not be so great. It's more than just not paying for fuel and oil changes. A prospective buyer needs to be aware of these things for their location when doing potential ownership calculations as you have.

Sibley

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #28 on: December 30, 2021, 06:24:48 PM »

The electrical grid in the US simply can't handle all EV vehicles. It's too old, poorly maintained, and strained.

Good thing we will have decades as EVs gradually replace the existing fleet. Power companies were actually getting worried about drops in demand due to better efficiency.

In addition, as long as you're not charging at peak - the grid has plenty of capacity. How do you get people to charge off peak? Time of use pricing. Proven at scale.

Quote
Look at what happened in TX last winter - that entire mess was preventable with regular maintenance (and people smart enough to turn the water off).

The TX Icepocalypse had nothing to do with EVs, nor "turning the water off" - it was caused by cheapskate power and NG producers who failed to winterize, despite being given detailed recommendations from FERC a decade ago. A small portion of wind power also froze up, but overall wind overproduced compared to the baseline ERCOT projection for that timeframe. Coal, natural gas and nuclear were the real culprits - they claim reliability, then fall over when needed.

Of course there's corruption and an extra $11B in profits for the fossil fuel companies from scalping-level prices. Texas GQP ensured nothing would be done against them, just ensuring that consumers will pay the bill over time. They got millions in donations from the fossil fuel companies after the legislative session ended and no meaningful response or reform was passed. $5M to the governor alone.

In short, the grid problems in Texas are a political and crony capitalism issue.

Though I did shut off the water at the meter and drained the lines prior to the real cold setting in.

I don't think you understood my post, but thanks for explaining in much greater detail exactly why what I said was correct.

bryan995

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #29 on: December 31, 2021, 05:40:38 AM »
If you care about depreciation, nothing even comes close to a Tesla model 3/Y.  Just for that fact alone, it may even  be the “cheapest car to operate”. An 04 Honda Accord with the 6 disc changer in the trunk being a close second :)

We live in CA on a TOU plan with both solar and home batteries. Our cost to drive let alone our cost to run the home is absurdly low.

Filling the battery with 260 miles of range costs something like $4 at night.

I agree that we may be entering peak gas / ‘stupid’ car times.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2021, 05:43:51 AM by bryan995 »

vand

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #30 on: December 31, 2021, 06:18:19 AM »
I have a 21 year old car so looking to get a new one in the next a 12-18 months. Not in a hurry since mine still works. And I've been thinking about if I should go for an EV when the time comes. However:
- They are too shiny compared to my 21 year old car
- They are too aerodynamic
- They don't make any noise. Just think of the pedestrians around you!
- No smell or fumes. What? then how am I going to tell if the thing is running or the engine is warm enough?
- And the worse it is missing important parts. No oil or tranny or even a radiator. What were they thinking when they made this thing.
- Oh and what are the fine folks at Jiffy Lube gonna do without oil changes and handling all that waste? and the stinky gas station down the road? and the nice oil companies like Chevron? don't you feel bad for them?

Oh, yeah I'm definitely getting an EV :-)

All true. However don't forget to plug it in every night.

Midwest_Handlebar

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #31 on: December 31, 2021, 06:18:43 AM »
You have to think about the additional opportunity cost of having another $30k tied up in a Tesla though. We looked at a Tesla Model 3, but you don't save much buying used and new are now $45k+. With the additional sales tax, insurance costs, and being able to invest another $30K vs a $15k Volt, I couldn't justify the difference.

scottish

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #32 on: January 02, 2022, 01:19:07 PM »
I have a 21 year old car so looking to get a new one in the next a 12-18 months. Not in a hurry since mine still works. And I've been thinking about if I should go for an EV when the time comes. However:
- They are too shiny compared to my 21 year old car
- They are too aerodynamic
- They don't make any noise. Just think of the pedestrians around you!
- No smell or fumes. What? then how am I going to tell if the thing is running or the engine is warm enough?
- And the worse it is missing important parts. No oil or tranny or even a radiator. What were they thinking when they made this thing.
- Oh and what are the fine folks at Jiffy Lube gonna do without oil changes and handling all that waste? and the stinky gas station down the road? and the nice oil companies like Chevron? don't you feel bad for them?

Oh, yeah I'm definitely getting an EV :-)

All true. However don't forget to plug it in every night.

Synonyk, you live in a rural area, don't you?    Do you see a range problem?

My vehicle will be 18 in the spring so I'm starting to look for a replacement as well.    One of our leisure activities is to drive out to a cottage, sometimes in the winter.    Recharging when we get there is probably necessary in the winter, if not in the summer.   If the power was out, well that would be a problem.

Don't get me wrong, I think electric solutions are better than gasoline solutions.   I'm pretty sure an EV isn't yet a good match for long drives in remote areas...

Abe

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #33 on: January 02, 2022, 09:07:13 PM »
I'd say if a common drive of yours is within 80% of the maximum range and there's no fast chargers along the route, I'd worry a bit.

If neither of those apply, I wouldn't worry. Worst-case scenario is you forgot to charge fully before your long trip, and would have to drive to a hotel or friend's house that has a regular plug.

If the power goes out often enough to worry about charging an electric car, then I'd agree a plug-in hybrid is probably better. 

alsoknownasDean

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #34 on: January 02, 2022, 10:37:47 PM »
It's certainly a good time to sell a used car, but what if the price of new EVs falls significantly in the next few years?

I've started to think that I'll just keep my current gas guzzler until I can justify spending on an EV. Problem is that new ones are expensive and I don't trust the batteries on used ones (especially as I'd really like a range of at least 400km/250mi).

2sk22

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #35 on: January 03, 2022, 03:57:00 AM »
It's certainly a good time to sell a used car, but what if the price of new EVs falls significantly in the next few years?

I've started to think that I'll just keep my current gas guzzler until I can justify spending on an EV. Problem is that new ones are expensive and I don't trust the batteries on used ones (especially as I'd really like a range of at least 400km/250mi).

With ICE cars, we have a pretty good understanding of what to expect as cars get older  so the used car market is organized around these issues to some extent. The economics of used EVs is an interesting topic and I don't think there is any clarity as yet. On the one hand, there are many fewer moving parts in an EV on the other hand there is a chance of the battery going bad.

I think there is likely going to be a market developing for remanufactured battery packs. Only a few cells often die in a battery pack and it does not make sense to condemn the whole pack for a few dead cells. This will depend on how much labor will be needed to fix batteries.

sonofsven

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #36 on: January 03, 2022, 08:06:49 AM »
It's certainly a good time to sell a used car, but what if the price of new EVs falls significantly in the next few years?

I've started to think that I'll just keep my current gas guzzler until I can justify spending on an EV. Problem is that new ones are expensive and I don't trust the batteries on used ones (especially as I'd really like a range of at least 400km/250mi).

With ICE cars, we have a pretty good understanding of what to expect as cars get older  so the used car market is organized around these issues to some extent. The economics of used EVs is an interesting topic and I don't think there is any clarity as yet. On the one hand, there are many fewer moving parts in an EV on the other hand there is a chance of the battery going bad.

I think there is likely going to be a market developing for remanufactured battery packs. Only a few cells often die in a battery pack and it does not make sense to condemn the whole pack for a few dead cells. This will depend on how much labor will be needed to fix batteries.
[/b]

I think that's an area that will grow and change. I use cordless Makita tools all day, and you don't simply show up for work with one set of batteries and work til they're dead and put them on the charger, you have extra batteries. Obviously a 5ah Makita battery is much different than a 1200 lb Tesla battery, but could you break that down into 12 100# battery packs, or 24 50# packs? Improving the usability of the batteries and charging system would be huge, for example a home solar array that charges one battery during the day while you're using the other, and you swap them out each evening.
Or maybe just a Makita car that takes 100 Makita batteries, I'd buy that.

scottish

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #37 on: January 03, 2022, 09:36:53 AM »
I'd say if a common drive of yours is within 80% of the maximum range and there's no fast chargers along the route, I'd worry a bit.

If neither of those apply, I wouldn't worry. Worst-case scenario is you forgot to charge fully before your long trip, and would have to drive to a hotel or friend's house that has a regular plug.

If the power goes out often enough to worry about charging an electric car, then I'd agree a plug-in hybrid is probably better.

In some ways a plugin hybrid is the worst - it has all the complexity of a gasoline engine + an electric engine + a special transfer case to marry the two!


YttriumNitrate

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #38 on: January 03, 2022, 09:52:30 AM »
I guess I wasn't clear enough when I said "My calculations before we bought our 2017 Bolt was that we would be saving 10 cents per mile for the cost of fuel (electrons) over the 25mpg (gas) minivan the Bolt replaced.  That was based on $3/gallon gas."  (Words in parenthesis added to quote for clarity) ... I have no doubt whatsoever that an EV is going to be significantly cheaper to operate in the long run than its ICE equivalent.
I believe the ICE equivalent to the Chevy Bolt would be the Chevy Sonic. The MSRP of the Sonic is ~$16,750 while the Bolt is closer to $31,500. The Bolt has EV tax credits, so a reasonably estimate would be the Bolt is ~$10k more. The Sonic gets about 30 MPG, or about 13 cents a mile off $4 gas. Electricity is about 3 cents per mile, so figure 10 cents per mile savings with the Bolt. It would take 100,000 miles of fuel to recoup the initial price difference. Many places (e.g. Sound Transit RTA district) impose a fee based on original MSRP, which can tack on an extra ~$150 in addition to the EV vehicle fee. Maintenance might end up being less for an EV, but we don't really have a large fleet of 15 year old EVs out there to draw data from.

My current guess is that for someone driving 20k+ miles a year, the Bolt would beat the Sonic in price, at 10k mile a year, it would be a bit of a toss-up, and at 5k miles a year the Sonic beats the Bolt.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2022, 09:56:24 AM by YttriumNitrate »

sonofsven

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #39 on: January 03, 2022, 10:08:02 AM »
I guess I wasn't clear enough when I said "My calculations before we bought our 2017 Bolt was that we would be saving 10 cents per mile for the cost of fuel (electrons) over the 25mpg (gas) minivan the Bolt replaced.  That was based on $3/gallon gas."  (Words in parenthesis added to quote for clarity) ... I have no doubt whatsoever that an EV is going to be significantly cheaper to operate in the long run than its ICE equivalent.
I believe the ICE equivalent to the Chevy Bolt would be the Chevy Sonic. The MSRP of the Sonic is ~$16,750 while the Bolt is closer to $31,500. The Bolt has EV tax credits, so a reasonably estimate would be the Bolt is ~$10k more. The Sonic gets about 30 MPG, or about 13 cents a mile off $4 gas. Electricity is about 3 cents per mile, so figure 10 cents per mile savings with the Bolt. It would take 100,000 miles of fuel to recoup the initial price difference. Many places (e.g. Sound Transit RTA district) impose a fee based on original MSRP, which can tack on an extra ~$150 in addition to the EV vehicle fee. Maintenance might end up being less for an EV, but we don't really have a large fleet of 15 year old EVs out there to draw data from.

My current guess is that for someone driving 20k+ miles a year, the Bolt would beat the Sonic in price, at 10k mile a year, it would be a bit of a toss-up, and at 5k miles a year the Sonic beats the Bolt.

I found much the same when I did the numbers comparing a diesel to gas work truck when I was doing a lot of miles yeats ago. You need to drive a lot to make the diesel pencil out. I put 307K on a 7.3 powerstroke, then sold it.

Paper Chaser

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #40 on: January 03, 2022, 11:50:59 AM »
I'd say if a common drive of yours is within 80% of the maximum range and there's no fast chargers along the route, I'd worry a bit.

If neither of those apply, I wouldn't worry. Worst-case scenario is you forgot to charge fully before your long trip, and would have to drive to a hotel or friend's house that has a regular plug.

If the power goes out often enough to worry about charging an electric car, then I'd agree a plug-in hybrid is probably better.

In some ways a plugin hybrid is the worst - it has all the complexity of a gasoline engine + an electric engine + a special transfer case to marry the two!

A PHEV is just a regular hybrid with a bigger battery. Regular hybrids are rarely ridiculed for being overly complex. In the right situation, the ICE in a PHEV is just along for the ride while the majority of miles driven are done using only the EV powertrain. If a modern ICE lasts 100k miles of constant use in a regular vehicle before needing major service, that could easily be 200k+ miles in a PHEV.

You can have an ICE in a PHEV for edge cases, or you can have unused battery capacity in a BEV for edge cases. Both go unused the majority of the time, so it comes down to what you'd rather have on board for your edge cases.

AccidentialMustache

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #41 on: January 03, 2022, 02:47:52 PM »
I believe the ICE equivalent to the Chevy Bolt would be the Chevy Sonic. The MSRP of the Sonic is ~$16,750 while the Bolt is closer to $31,500. The Bolt has EV tax credits, so a reasonably estimate would be the Bolt is ~$10k more. The Sonic gets about 30 MPG, or about 13 cents a mile off $4 gas. Electricity is about 3 cents per mile, so figure 10 cents per mile savings with the Bolt. It would take 100,000 miles of fuel to recoup the initial price difference. Many places (e.g. Sound Transit RTA district) impose a fee based on original MSRP, which can tack on an extra ~$150 in addition to the EV vehicle fee. Maintenance might end up being less for an EV, but we don't really have a large fleet of 15 year old EVs out there to draw data from.

My current guess is that for someone driving 20k+ miles a year, the Bolt would beat the Sonic in price, at 10k mile a year, it would be a bit of a toss-up, and at 5k miles a year the Sonic beats the Bolt.

The sonic is a lot smaller than the bolt is. The bolt is really close in size to a Honda Fit. The Bolt is fancier, but not substantially so. We have a 2009 Fit and test drove the Bolt. I *really* *really* *really* wanted to get a Bolt. I love the size my Fit is, but the Bolt's fast-charge isn't that fast and they got swept up in the use car price rise (I'd seen 14k (pre-mass-recall), they're more like 18-20k now). Add the recall in (I'm on a cul-de-sac and literally would have nowhere to park, much less charge under those parameters) and we ended up with a Mach E instead.

A Fit, tech'd up to closer to the Bolt would have been $20-22k+ new, back when they sold them here.

But if you came up to me with an EV-fit with the range, similar-or-better fast charging, and some of the get-up-and-go, I might "downgrade" into it -- especially if the Mach E ends up with a near-flat depreciation curve like Tesla Ys are. Don't get me wrong, the Mach E is a fantastic EV... but its too big. I don't really know where the nose, side, or rear are, while I do in the Fit. Maybe time will change that, I have been driving said Fit for 12+ years now.

scottish

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #42 on: January 03, 2022, 05:05:55 PM »
I'd say if a common drive of yours is within 80% of the maximum range and there's no fast chargers along the route, I'd worry a bit.

If neither of those apply, I wouldn't worry. Worst-case scenario is you forgot to charge fully before your long trip, and would have to drive to a hotel or friend's house that has a regular plug.

If the power goes out often enough to worry about charging an electric car, then I'd agree a plug-in hybrid is probably better.

In some ways a plugin hybrid is the worst - it has all the complexity of a gasoline engine + an electric engine + a special transfer case to marry the two!

A PHEV is just a regular hybrid with a bigger battery. Regular hybrids are rarely ridiculed for being overly complex. In the right situation, the ICE in a PHEV is just along for the ride while the majority of miles driven are done using only the EV powertrain. If a modern ICE lasts 100k miles of constant use in a regular vehicle before needing major service, that could easily be 200k+ miles in a PHEV.

You can have an ICE in a PHEV for edge cases, or you can have unused battery capacity in a BEV for edge cases. Both go unused the majority of the time, so it comes down to what you'd rather have on board for your edge cases.

Or you can just have a gasoline engine...   I can see the value for a hybrid if you're doing a lot of city driving.     But that was my original point - electric/hybrids don't sound like a good choice for long drives in a cold climate like Canada.    Anyone know how much the cabin heater shortens the range?


Abe

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #43 on: January 03, 2022, 05:28:00 PM »
I'd say if a common drive of yours is within 80% of the maximum range and there's no fast chargers along the route, I'd worry a bit.

If neither of those apply, I wouldn't worry. Worst-case scenario is you forgot to charge fully before your long trip, and would have to drive to a hotel or friend's house that has a regular plug.

If the power goes out often enough to worry about charging an electric car, then I'd agree a plug-in hybrid is probably better.

In some ways a plugin hybrid is the worst - it has all the complexity of a gasoline engine + an electric engine + a special transfer case to marry the two!

A PHEV is just a regular hybrid with a bigger battery. Regular hybrids are rarely ridiculed for being overly complex. In the right situation, the ICE in a PHEV is just along for the ride while the majority of miles driven are done using only the EV powertrain. If a modern ICE lasts 100k miles of constant use in a regular vehicle before needing major service, that could easily be 200k+ miles in a PHEV.

You can have an ICE in a PHEV for edge cases, or you can have unused battery capacity in a BEV for edge cases. Both go unused the majority of the time, so it comes down to what you'd rather have on board for your edge cases.

I had a PHEV Prius and put maybe 1000 miles on the engine over 30k of driving. In the end I realized there is no scenario where I'd drive far enough to worry about range in a regular electric vehicle, so traded it in for a 240 mile range full electric SUV. However, if the choice is using an electric vehicle for 360 days of the year and a small engine for 5 days versus an engine 365 days because you're worried about the vacation, then just get a PHEV. They combine two very reliable and proven technologies into one unit. Not a big deal.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2022, 05:29:54 PM by Abe »

AccidentialMustache

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #44 on: January 03, 2022, 05:38:48 PM »
Or you can just have a gasoline engine...   I can see the value for a hybrid if you're doing a lot of city driving.     But that was my original point - electric/hybrids don't sound like a good choice for long drives in a cold climate like Canada.    Anyone know how much the cabin heater shortens the range?

As with everything, "it depends" -- what temperature inside and out, is your vehicle equipped with a heat pump or just electric resistance heat, and are you mostly using a heated seat/wheel or mostly using blown air?

A 20-30% reduction in range is a pretty common estimate.

Syonyk

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #45 on: January 03, 2022, 07:06:58 PM »
Since I think I was hailed by more-or-less name, in response to a not-me posting, and I haven't zeroed the system left logged in here yet...

The electrical grid in the US simply can't handle all EV vehicles. It's too old, poorly maintained, and strained.

Not really a big issue.  You can play with the numbers how you want, but most methods end up with about a 25% increase in annual power consumption.  However, the grid is sized for peak power, so for the vast majority of the year, the surplus capacity is there to handle quite a bit of EV charging.  The average US daily driving is on the order of 30 miles, which works out to around 10kWh on an electric vehicle - not a huge increase in capacity compared to typical electrical use.  You can also, with workplace charging, charge them during the late morning and early afternoon, which for large parts of the year is peak solar production (and a bit of a lull in grid demand - afternoon loads haven't picked up yet, morning loads are over).  Fleet vehicles and trucking add some demand, but that's going to be in places already generally sized for high demand, and if you look at demand charge rates, a warehouse operating during the day and charging during the night is actually going to be just fine.  You pay separate for kWh and peak power delivery on an industrial demand rate schedule, so charging will probably help reduce average power costs per kWh for those facilities.  And, again, you can do some daytime charging, depending on how the routes are set up.

Plus, since these changes are going to take 20 years to happen (we don't have the production capacity to replace all new vehicles with EVs today even if we wanted to), the power grid will be expanded out, distributed energy resources will help reduce peak demand on transmission lines, etc.

There are plenty of points of concern for EVs, but the power grid just isn't one.  That 25% increase is about what one would expect anyway on the power grid, and various efficiency improvements have been reducing peak demand over time anyway, so... go do the math on cobalt or lithium if you want to find a useful tree to bark up. ;)

Quote
And that's not factoring in the very practical issue of all the older homes out there with less than 200 amp electric service. I CAN'T install a EV charger at my home without also upgrading my service, which would also mean replacing the electric box.

You can't spare 20A @ 240V? That's more than enough to handle almost all regularly passenger EV driving (~100 miles of range in 8h of charging), and you can do it on 12AWG wire.  Ignore the people who say that unless you can charge 300 miles in 8 hours, an EV is useless, and go look at how many miles you actually drive.  Figure about 3 miles/kWh delivered, and math out how many hours at what rate you need to charge your car during downtime.  Most people are home for more than 8 hours, and I know a number of people, ourselves included, who have done an awful lot of EV miles on 12A/120V before getting a 240V charging circuit installed.  You don't need a 90A charger for most driving, unless you're literally filling your current vehicle tank once or more a day.  At that point, the cost delta between EV miles and gas miles is so great that you may as well upgrade the service, it'll be cheaper than $4/gal gas just about everywhere.

Quote
Then you have plenty of areas without dedicated parking, so how are those people going to install chargers if they don't have a garage or dedicated spot? And we certainly don't have widespread public charging options in place yet. (Apartment complexes, high rise housing, large chucks of any major city like NY, Chicago, San Fran, etc.)

My preferred solution, which I've written about in the past, is "Slow, Dumb Charging," in which you just have a bunch of unmetered 20A charging stalls scattered about, because it's cheaper to do that and add $15/mo to the parking spot rental or something than it is to put in the multi-thousand dollar, $50/unit/month management fee, revenue grade ChargePoint units that allow you to do cost recovery.  The EVSE I installed at our church runs on donations, and it's literally cheaper to give the power away than to do a lot with trying to do billing for power.  Though I've failed to get a solar array up there yet.  Maybe this next year...

Quote
I'm not digging into rural areas because I don't know the specific issues, but I'm sure there's there's some serious problems to work out.

... no?  If you have a grid connection, you can make an EV work fine for the bulk of daily driving, unless you're doing literally hundreds of miles a day of driving.  And even then, you probably can make it work.

In most rural areas, having multiple vehicles is pretty common, so replacing one of them with a mid-range EV covers the bulk of driving trips into town and such while still leaving other vehicles for that which the EV might not handle (typically trailers or winter duty - there's nothing that can tow a serious trailer in the EV market yet, and nobody seems to be promising anything of the sort any time soon - 10k lb tow rating, with explicit support for a gooseneck or 5th wheel hitch would be a good start there, and, yes, I know what the Cybertruck is rated, and no, I don't want to hang 14k off a receiver because I'm not dumb).

Keep the miles off the gassers, wear out the EV.  Works fine.

I have no regrets buying my Tesla, though it had nothing to do with saving money or maximizing value of my old Subaru.  It's just an insanely fun car to drive and it makes me happy.

o.O

*checks the forum he's on and scratches his head*

One of my parents made the really interesting suggestion that we consider leasing an EV rather than buying...

Yes, yes, leasing a new car is a great and exceedingly wise investment as opposed to the horrors of buying and having to suffer through not getting rid of the car in three years or whatever the lease term is...

The best part is that once you're done with your ancient, beat up, absolute crap pile three year old car, you can turn it in and do it all over again and make the wise decision to lease another one!

Seriously, what the fuck happened to this forum?  Leasing brand new cars?  Did I stumble into Boggleheads, or "Tell Me How Wise My Luxury Clown Car Purchase Is dot com"?

Let me offer better advice.

If you typically drive 20-25 miles a day or less, buy a used Gen 1 Volt with lower miles, plug it in on 120V or 240V/20A (it won't charge past 13A), and worry about the replacement in 5-8 years.

If you drive 30-40 miles a day or less, buy a used Gen 2 Volt and do the same thing.

You can still drive them across country, they cover the bulk of your driving miles on battery, and if you don't have quite enough charge, no big deal, you've got a gas engine.  Just plug them in at home and you're fine.  And you've not gone through the stupidity of leasing a new car (sorry, sorry, the wise, enlightened financial decision to lease brand new technology that tracks you everywhere, but, hey, might change the UI randomly overnight before your morning commute).

Synonyk, you live in a rural area, don't you?    Do you see a range problem?

...

Don't get me wrong, I think electric solutions are better than gasoline solutions.   I'm pretty sure an EV isn't yet a good match for long drives in remote areas...

Our Gen 1 Volt averages around 200 miles per gallon of gas used in regular driving, which was the plan.  It covers round trips into both towns we regularly go to on battery for most of the year, though uses a bit of gas in the winter (sometimes for heat, sometimes for range).  We can do cross country trips on gas, and if we're doing 100 miles out to the middle of nowhere, we just burn some gas.  It's about 33-34mpg on gas for longer trips, so not quite as good as a Prius, but all the electric miles mean we still use radically less gas.

We could do just about everything we do without trouble on a long range pure EV as well, I just don't care to spend the money on one yet.  We'll probably get a battery-replaced Bolt at some point in the years to come once our kids need a car, but that's another 8 years off, so... I'll see.  It works totally fine for us.

If you do live out in the real middle of nowhere, a long range BEV you can charge at home and do your long town trips in saves an awful lot of money over a gas or diesel solution as well.

Again, just not seeing the actual issue here.

In some ways a plugin hybrid is the worst - it has all the complexity of a gasoline engine + an electric engine + a special transfer case to marry the two!

Yeah, those Priuses, unreliable turds that are constantly broken and demanding transmission parts!

(a very large rolleyes goes here)

The transmission in a typical PHEV or hybrid is rather a lot simpler than anything in a pure gas vehicle these days.  A modern automatic, for fuel economy reasons, is typically 7-10 speeds, and an awful lot of clutches and bands to accomplish that.  A hybrid or PHEV transmission is far fewer moving parts, far fewer wearing parts, and have repeatedly proven to be "not a problem in practice."

The "complexity" of a gasoline engine is a well established engineering practice, and most reasonable modern gas engines will do 200k+ miles on minimum maintenance - most will do further, but people are just dying for an excuse to "have to buy a new car" after that point, it seems, so it's rare to see too many over 300k, but most will do it if given the chance.  A PHEV will generally put far fewer miles on them than it would as a pure gas car because of all the electric miles.  If we put 200k miles on our Volt at the rate we burn fuel, that works out to around 1000 gallons of gas, or about 35k miles on the gas engine.  It'll still have the cylinder honing marks at that point!

I can't imagine you'd be too terribly concerned about a new gas car blowing up before 50k miles, would you?

But with EV production limited by battery capacity, you can build 4-6 PHEVs for the batteries that go into a single long range electric, so it works out quite a bit better there.

I get that the supposed "complexity" of the PHEVs is a talking point about how the "simplicity" of a pure EV is worth leasing a brand new one (technology upgrades, you know), but if you look at Consumer Reports and such, the TCO for pure EVs and PHEVs is right about the same, and the reliability ends up overlapping as well.  You get all the nice perks of electric in terms of reduced engine maintenance (we change the oil every 2 years, I expect to never need brake pads, etc), and still have quite a bit more capability as well.  I can find gas stations in the middle of nowhere.  I can't find DC fast chargers out there yet.

I put 307K on a 7.3 powerstroke, then sold it.

I have 115k on my 7.3.  ;)

GodlessCommie

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #46 on: January 03, 2022, 07:26:06 PM »
Or you can just have a gasoline engine...   I can see the value for a hybrid if you're doing a lot of city driving.     But that was my original point - electric/hybrids don't sound like a good choice for long drives in a cold climate like Canada.    Anyone know how much the cabin heater shortens the range?

But that's a different issue, isn't it? The original point you made was that PHEVs were overly complex. That really isn't the case - as said above, they are just hybrids with a bigger battery and some power electronics for charging. And hybrids, by now, are a tried and true technology. They make ICE cars more reliable, not less, by shaving peak load from the engine, and allowing it to operate in a more gentle cycle.

I can't answer your question about cold climate driving. Consider, though, that no matter how much the range drops, you'll still have the ICE to keep you going.

An unusual tidbit to share: last spring, when Russians hacked a pipeline operator, I had a trip that I had to make. I ended up finding gas where I needed it, and charged more for the peace of mind than out of necessity. But had I not, I had chargers mapped out, and would have made it on electricity alone. Granted, the trip would be uncomfortably long - no fast-charging a PHEV - but it would still be much faster than sitting with an empty tank.

Paper Chaser

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #47 on: January 04, 2022, 04:09:22 AM »
I'd say if a common drive of yours is within 80% of the maximum range and there's no fast chargers along the route, I'd worry a bit.

If neither of those apply, I wouldn't worry. Worst-case scenario is you forgot to charge fully before your long trip, and would have to drive to a hotel or friend's house that has a regular plug.

If the power goes out often enough to worry about charging an electric car, then I'd agree a plug-in hybrid is probably better.

In some ways a plugin hybrid is the worst - it has all the complexity of a gasoline engine + an electric engine + a special transfer case to marry the two!

A PHEV is just a regular hybrid with a bigger battery. Regular hybrids are rarely ridiculed for being overly complex. In the right situation, the ICE in a PHEV is just along for the ride while the majority of miles driven are done using only the EV powertrain. If a modern ICE lasts 100k miles of constant use in a regular vehicle before needing major service, that could easily be 200k+ miles in a PHEV.

You can have an ICE in a PHEV for edge cases, or you can have unused battery capacity in a BEV for edge cases. Both go unused the majority of the time, so it comes down to what you'd rather have on board for your edge cases.

Or you can just have a gasoline engine...   I can see the value for a hybrid if you're doing a lot of city driving.     But that was my original point - electric/hybrids don't sound like a good choice for long drives in a cold climate like Canada.    Anyone know how much the cabin heater shortens the range?

Standard hybrids will often achieve better fuel economy on long highway trips than PHEVs, but there are tons of variables that impact that stuff so it's almost a case by case basis. Same is true for how much HVAC use will shorten the range. It seems like 30-40% less range is common with EVs in cold weather, but some of that is due to the actual temps and some is due to HVAC use.

HVAC use and cold weather shortens the range of an ICE too. The only difference is that you can quickly and easily refuel an ICE. That's an advantage of a PHEV or basic hybrid over a full EV. You get some advantages of electrification but you can still rely on the existing infrastructure when you need it. Maybe someday EV charging infrastructure will be more dependable and widespread, but for the time being I think hybrids and PHEVs are a great solution for pretty much any use case.

SYNACK

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #48 on: January 04, 2022, 09:29:01 PM »
I was on a long road trip earlier in the fall and passed through a lot of farm country and I wondered, wouldn't be neat if farmers got into EV for their tractors and farming machinery?  hear me out for a minute. Not because EV is cleaner and greener but I bet more reliable engines, and easier to charge than transporting all the diesel to them would make it interesting? feels to me that running power lines to them is simpler. And the government can probably subsidize solar farms in their communities to lower the cost of charging. Yeah it would have to compete with the existing tractors and the farming machinery but I wonder if cheaper electricity and easier to get to would make a difference...

Although I have a feeling that change is really hard for farmers for a lot of reasons. But change can start slow and word of mouth might be a good way to move it forward.

Syonyk

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Re: To Buy EV or Not
« Reply #49 on: January 04, 2022, 10:40:10 PM »
HVAC use and cold weather shortens the range of an ICE too. The only difference is that you can quickly and easily refuel an ICE. That's an advantage of a PHEV or basic hybrid over a full EV. You get some advantages of electrification but you can still rely on the existing infrastructure when you need it. Maybe someday EV charging infrastructure will be more dependable and widespread, but for the time being I think hybrids and PHEVs are a great solution for pretty much any use case.

Most of the PHEVs will use the gas engine for heat as well in the winter.  The Gen 1 Volts originally used it below 25F, though the late-2012s and later give you the option for 15F and 35F.  The Gen 2s give you more options, some allowing you to set it down to 0F or below - the larger battery helps.

Heating is more or less "free" off an ICE - it's a waste product, so you just have to pick which radiator you circulate it through.  Yet another advantage of PHEVs over pure EVs...

I was on a long road trip earlier in the fall and passed through a lot of farm country and I wondered, wouldn't be neat if farmers got into EV for their tractors and farming machinery?

No.  It would be a waste of perfectly good batteries, mostly.  Batteries are best for things used regularly, in daily use, and ideally you want to use a decent chunk of the capacity on a regular basis for effective utilization of their life.  I know I sound like a broken record, but a PHEV doing 35 miles a day on battery, covering all the daily driving on 60-70% of the pack capacity, is a far better use of batteries than a 300 mile range car regularly doing 35 miles, and hauling the rest of the batteries around for the occasional long trip.  If you don't have consistent charging, or are regularly doing longer trips, the long range pack might be nice, but in terms of "we are mostly battery capacity limited," building 5 mid-range PHEVs for the cells that would go into one long range EV is going to be an awful lot more useful for pretty much whatever metric you care about other than "I want a $100k luxury car that accelerates off the line like a motorcycle."  That requires a big battery pack to source the amps needed, and in exchange you get to pay more in tire costs than most reasonably efficient gas cars pay in fuel costs.

I live overlooking a bunch of farm fields.  My son has amazing eyesight and is currently obsessed with tractors and other heavy machinery, so I'm quite aware every time anything is moving out in the fields below us, out to about three miles.

The equipment will show up, and then run 18+ hour days to do [whatever that bit of equipment does], late into the night with lights.  They'll shut down at 10PM and be going again at 6AM, until the work is done.  Then the equipment goes down the road, does the same thing, and then goes and sits in one of the ag storage lots or sheds until next year when it's needed again.  You'd need HUGE battery packs and megawatt-class fast charging to be able to do anything remotely like that, and hundreds of kWh per tractor to be able to run the sort of power output it runs for 18 hours, charge overnight, repeat.  If you are able to do some fast charging throughout the day, you might get away with less, but it's still going to sit for 11 months of the year for a typical bit of machinery, and get used nearly 24/7 the other month.  It's an awful way to use batteries when you're supply limited.

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hear me out for a minute. Not because EV is cleaner and greener but I bet more reliable engines, and easier to charge than transporting all the diesel to them would make it interesting? feels to me that running power lines to them is simpler.

An electric powertrain operating at 300+hp continuously is going to have some challenges, and it's not like a modern diesel engine falls apart every 50 hours.  With some regular maintenance (generally done during the time they're not running hard), they run for thousands of hours between overhauls/replacement.  I might not buy a 5000 hour engine for a working farm, but it wouldn't bother me for a property tractor.  I've no idea what's on my gas tractor, but it's 80 years old, and I doubt the engine has been rebuilt in that time.  I'm quite certain it's not been rebuilt on our 90 year old car.

"Easier to charge than transporting all the diesel."  That really depends on if you have power lines of any real substance around the farm fields, and if you can tap them.  If you look at the power lines in a lot of rural areas, out past the farm fields and handful of homes, you'll see single phase lines - not even three phases carried through.  Just a hot and neutral at 10-15kV.  They carry more than enough power for the homes, but aren't going to be able to put in MW class fast charging stations, and even if you could, the transformer costs and demand charges for something like that are enough to make $5/gal diesel look like an absolute bargain.

A 100g tank of diesel at 38kWh (thermal) per gallon is 3800kWh, and run through a ~35% efficient engine, gets you around 1330kWh mechanical out.  That's roughly a 1500kWh battery pack (handwaving a bit), and it doesn't take more than a few minutes to pump 100 gallons of diesel out of a transfer tank or trailer.  If you can even get a MW class charger, that's 1.5 hours vs about 5 minutes, and see above, MW class fast chargers aren't something you can just drop in anywhere.  A 20A/240V charging circuit can fit in most homes for overnight charging, a MW class fast charger is an absolute expensive pain in the rear to get installed.

Again, I guarantee it's easier to put a 250 gallon diesel tank (2k lbs) in the back of a pickup and go fill a tractor in a field than it is to put high speed charging equipment scattered everywhere that's only used a month or so of the year.  You could centralize the charging equipment, but now you're having to roll equipment down the road to go charge every day or two, and if it's a central point, you'll have even more stuff charging, so you'll need 5+MW of charging station - even harder to get off the power lines in farm country.

If you're going to pick on agriculture for GHG emissions, tractor diesel is pretty far down the list.  We know how to do agriculture without it, but it looks like 90% or so of the population involved in farming, not MWh class battery packs in tractors.  You'd likely be far, far better off just running B80 biodiesel blends in tractors.  Soy biodiesel is decent stuff, and not subject to the sort of "Is it actually energy positive?" debates that corn ethanol is.  It wouldn't take that much land for each farmer to grow most of their own biofuel crops to run the rest of their land.

You might find some gains by doing cable tools again for various bits of field maintenance, where you have equipment that can drag a plow back and forth, but it still takes
an awful lot of power to run a big plow through a field.  You'll find all sorts of support from me for some of the lower equipment style farming systems - biodynamic is some interesting techniques - but you can't just wish away reality here.

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And the government can probably subsidize solar farms in their communities to lower the cost of charging. Yeah it would have to compete with the existing tractors and the farming machinery but I wonder if cheaper electricity and easier to get to would make a difference...

The solar farms or lack thereof have almost nothing to do with the cost of fast charging infrastructure.  Go sit down with one of your local power company "high power" demand schedules and play with the numbers.  You pay separately for kWh and for peak kW, and a low utilization, high power use like a farm field fast charger is going to be staggeringly expensive to run.  Far, far more so than diesel, and you probably have to pay for the transformers to get it installed in the first place.  If your goal is spending millions to save a thousand, it might be doable, but it's a rather absurd place to focus at the moment.

I would love to see more distributed solar farms out in rural areas (it's far easier and more useful to put 20x 2MW farms scattered around than to site and get the grid infrastructure for a single 40MW facility, though the 40MW facility is probably cheaper in the end), but they've almost nothing to do with fast charging systems.  You might site a fast charger with them, since if it's a 2MW facility it'll have the grid connect for that kind of power, but they're not going to be frequent enough to be particularly useful for farming.

You can make the electricity free and I'm fairly certain it won't pencil out by the time you have to buy MWh class packs for infrequent use.  Lithium batteries have a calendar life as well as a cycle life, so "not using it" doesn't magically mean it will last 80 years.  It'll still be toast long before then even if it doesn't get a single cycle.

If you were able to build an entire line of equipment that used the same battery pack and wasn't painful to swap between devices, it might make a hair more sense, but there's a reason you don't see power pods being swapped between farm equipment.  And with the staged use through various fields, you still would probably need to power most of the equipment during the spring and fall.

On the topic of solar farms, if you want to contribute to rural solar, I'm accepting donations that will go directly to rural solar infrastructure (homeowner installed)... I've installed mine, and there's quite a bit of interest in similar stuff, but with lower incomes, dropping $30k on equipment is a bit harder for some people.  100% of donations will go directly to solar installs in the southwest Idaho area.

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Although I have a feeling that change is really hard for farmers for a lot of reasons.

Part of it is because John Deere has kicked every single one of them in the nuts, repeatedly, over the past decade.  The computerized and DRM-locked crap that Deere has been shipping is a horror show to repair, needs OEM dealer techs who tend to be busy during planting and harvest season, requires OEM parts, and then Deere's gone and had strikes at their factories that mean that not only can't you get the part to work without the proper laptop, you can't even get the part in the first place.

There's been a rush in some areas towards older tractors that can be rebuilt and maintained indefinitely, and out in my area, farmers have never gone away from it.  I see some newer stuff for the big plowing jobs, but a lot of the smaller fields and lighter jobs are done on older tractors.  I still see stuff from the 60s-80s working fields, and it's doing a fine job of it as far as I can tell.  There are still a ton of Ford N series tractors (1939-1955 or so) rolling around as property tractors, and I'm fairly certain I've seen one or two still working a field, though they may have been the 1950s Jubilee series - it's hard to tell them apart from a distance.

But the same logic that means I'm not buying an electric property tractor applies to farm tractors.  They're used very heavily, for short periods of time (relatively speaking), then sit idle for long periods.  My tractor will sit for a month, then get used 5-6 hours in a bad winter's day of snow clearing.  That's just not a good spot for electrics yet, and it's unclear it will ever be (compared to biodiesel and similar).  $10/gal syngas or paying for atmospheric carbon capture is cheaper, by far.  Or I can just crush and spread basalt, but I lack a rock crusher and want to build a greenhouse with my rock.

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But change can start slow and word of mouth might be a good way to move it forward.

"Hey, you should buy something that doesn't exist, and will cost you huge sums of money, and cost you more to operate and maintain than you current stuff, but, look, it will almost certainly come loaded with all sorts of DRM that makes current Deere equipment look maintainable!" isn't going to win any farmers out here over.

"Get an electric or PHEV for trips into town" makes a ton of sense for farmers.  An electric pickup, if they can tow decently, makes sense.  Electric tractors, to the best of my knowledge, simply don't yet, and may not ever.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!