Author Topic: This quarantine shit’s getting real  (Read 68810 times)

StarBright

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #400 on: June 10, 2020, 01:11:49 PM »
Personally I'm still nervous about returning to business as usual.  I know everyone's gotten bored with quarantining and they've decided they've had enough, they deserve a summer break, etc... What happened to shared sacrifice?

No authoritative, scientific organization has announced an end to the pandemic, so I'll still staying put as long as possible.  Yes, I miss being out there, going on vacations, visiting my mom, etc... but you gotta do what you can to stay healthy and keep others healthy.

Our family just started a hard two week quarantine (any shopping will be curbside pick up only) so that we can visit my parents. We can just make it there on a single tank of gas so we feel okay trying this. My kids haven't seen their grandparents since the holidays and I can tell my parents are getting depressed. Just want to put the quarantine idea out there if it makes it possible to visit your mother!

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #401 on: June 10, 2020, 01:21:01 PM »
Personally I'm still nervous about returning to business as usual.  I know everyone's gotten bored with quarantining and they've decided they've had enough, they deserve a summer break, etc... What happened to shared sacrifice?

No authoritative, scientific organization has announced an end to the pandemic, so I'll still staying put as long as possible.  Yes, I miss being out there, going on vacations, visiting my mom, etc... but you gotta do what you can to stay healthy and keep others healthy.
You can only control what you can control. Wearing a mask, social distancing, etc.  Other people, not so much. If at all. Compliance is key: we can put up all the restrictions we want. If people won’t follow them then we’re not going to get the desired end state.

LaineyAZ

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #402 on: June 10, 2020, 01:31:26 PM »
Look at that, an "alarming" rise in cases in Arizona since reopening. From the article, "Arizona has seen a rise in COVID-19 case totals and hospitalizations recently, trends Humble considers alarming. The state reported Monday that 79% of inpatient beds and 77% of ICU beds were filled, leaving 1,506 inpatient beds and 363 ICU beds open. ...Flanagan said there are signs that community spread of COVID-19 in metro Phoenix is growing beyond what was expected because of the state’s reopening plan."

Hospitalizations rise well before deaths. This is not dependent upon testing. And the person quoted, a former health director for the state, thinks they're headed for "field hospitals and/or another stay-at-home order".

Gee, I wonder which would be better? Field hospitals, or just asking people to stay home whenever possible?

As an AZ resident, I'm betting they'll make the military throw up some field hospitals vs. reverting back to Phase 1.

And another fun fact:  it's been reported that our Republican governor has not talked with the Democratic mayor of Phoenix in months on this or any other topic. He also didn't inform her that the state was going under curfew for a week (which just ended Monday 8th).  His excuse is that he's talking with the City Manager.  So yeah, we have some Trump-level political tantrum stuff happening in addition to literally being in the middle of a pandemic. 

BudgetSlasher

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #403 on: June 10, 2020, 01:31:57 PM »
Personally I'm still nervous about returning to business as usual.  I know everyone's gotten bored with quarantining and they've decided they've had enough, they deserve a summer break, etc... What happened to shared sacrifice?

No authoritative, scientific organization has announced an end to the pandemic, so I'll still staying put as long as possible.  Yes, I miss being out there, going on vacations, visiting my mom, etc... but you gotta do what you can to stay healthy and keep others healthy.

Our family just started a hard two week quarantine (any shopping will be curbside pick up only) so that we can visit my parents. We can just make it there on a single tank of gas so we feel okay trying this. My kids haven't seen their grandparents since the holidays and I can tell my parents are getting depressed. Just want to put the quarantine idea out there if it makes it possible to visit your mother!

It is a good plan, so long as everyone controls their home, trusts the others will comply, and accepts the risks (however greatly reduced they are).


I presumed that when he said cannot he was forbidden, as in she lives somewhere that has gone on lockdown and is not allowing any visitors. My grandmother lives in her own independent living apartment, but it is in a facility that has everything from full apartment to 24hr bedside nursing. They have closed the dining room (if you are not cooking your own meals they are delivered to your room), no visitors allowed in, and no residents are allowed out.

Kris

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #404 on: June 10, 2020, 01:57:09 PM »
Personally I'm still nervous about returning to business as usual.  I know everyone's gotten bored with quarantining and they've decided they've had enough, they deserve a summer break, etc... What happened to shared sacrifice?

No authoritative, scientific organization has announced an end to the pandemic, so I'll still staying put as long as possible.  Yes, I miss being out there, going on vacations, visiting my mom, etc... but you gotta do what you can to stay healthy and keep others healthy.

Yeah, I mean, places in the US are opening back up, but not because much has changed. More because people are bored and putting pressure on elected officials.

Most of my local friends are starting to go out and do stuff again. DH and I are not changing our behavior at all. We're not going to start going to restaurants, our gym, etc. etc. Not getting my hair cut, either.

Of everyone in our circle, the one friend that is doing the same as us... is an epidemiologist.

2sk22

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #405 on: June 10, 2020, 02:28:59 PM »
Here in northeastern NJ, things are slowly getting back to normal with the number of cases dropping quite rapidly. According to various online trackers, about 17% of the population of NJ has been infected (cumulatively). The resting rate has really been ramped up and it's now really easy to get tested now.

On a personal note, I myself had covid back in early April although my case was thankfully quite mild. I was in bed for about five days and but the time the test results came back as positive, I was already on the mend. I'm donating blood in a few days for antibodies in my serum.

scottish

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #406 on: June 10, 2020, 03:18:11 PM »
I went to physiotherapy today, under the new rules:

1.  2 patients in the clinic at a time.   (The other 8 beds were stacked in the corner).

2.  Patients have to wear a mask.

3.  Physiotherapist wears a mask and gloves.

4.  Physiotherapist assistant spends most of his time cleaning, disinfecting, and cleaning, anywhere a patient has been.    When I asked him how he felt about it, he said "It took so much work getting to this point, we shouldn't take any chances."

I felt pretty safe from contagion under these circumstances.

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #407 on: June 10, 2020, 03:18:32 PM »

No authoritative, scientific organization has announced an end to the pandemic

How pandemics end

"In other words, pandemics can end not because a disease has been vanquished but because people grow tired of panic mode and learn to live with a disease. Allan Brandt, a Harvard historian, said something similar was happening with Covid-19: “As we have seen in the debate about opening the economy, many questions about the so-called end are determined not by medical and public health data but by sociopolitical processes.”

mm1970

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #408 on: June 10, 2020, 06:46:35 PM »
Personally I'm still nervous about returning to business as usual.  I know everyone's gotten bored with quarantining and they've decided they've had enough, they deserve a summer break, etc... What happened to shared sacrifice?

No authoritative, scientific organization has announced an end to the pandemic, so I'll still staying put as long as possible.  Yes, I miss being out there, going on vacations, visiting my mom, etc... but you gotta do what you can to stay healthy and keep others healthy.

Yeah, I mean, places in the US are opening back up, but not because much has changed. More because people are bored and putting pressure on elected officials.

Most of my local friends are starting to go out and do stuff again. DH and I are not changing our behavior at all. We're not going to start going to restaurants, our gym, etc. etc. Not getting my hair cut, either.

Of everyone in our circle, the one friend that is doing the same as us... is an epidemiologist.
Our weekend potluck group started up again.  Soft startup. The person who sent the text is a non-vaxxer who just says "take vitamin C!"  She's also in her 60s, as his her husband.  And in fact, 2/3 of the adults in our group are in their 60s.  So...I'm pretty sure most people are bailing.  At least I know of us and 3 other families who said "not ready". 

We go grocery shopping with masks, and only about every 1.5 weeks (I finally started).  I went to the beach yesterday.  Walked there with kid #2, wore our buffs around our neck.  Walked through people to the water, dipped in our toes.  Chatted 6' from friends who were there.  Left and called husband to pick us up.  We get takeout once a week.

While friends are vacationing elsewhere...we are planning a long weekend staycation.  On Saturday - stay away from downtown.  Go kayaking (easy to physically distance).  On Sunday, get up early and go for a short hike in the back country and take a dip in the river.  By 11 am, it gets busy back there with locals who bring coolers and snacks and floaties.  Save beach days for weekdays, and in the morning.  It gets hot and busy in the afternoon.  Will probably pick the close by beach on day 1, and then a further away one on day 2 (which takes a longish walk to get to, so fewer people).  Go home for lunch (or takeout) and spend the afternoon at home reading, playing games, etc.

Everybody needs a haircut.  I may dig out the wahl cutters and give it a go on one or more boys.

Gremlin

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #409 on: June 10, 2020, 07:30:35 PM »

No authoritative, scientific organization has announced an end to the pandemic

How pandemics end

"In other words, pandemics can end not because a disease has been vanquished but because people grow tired of panic mode and learn to live with a disease. Allan Brandt, a Harvard historian, said something similar was happening with Covid-19: “As we have seen in the debate about opening the economy, many questions about the so-called end are determined not by medical and public health data but by sociopolitical processes.”

Whilst there is some element of truth to that in some cases, the key phrase is "learn to live with" the disease.  It's important to unpack what that means.  It's not a decision that can be made at an individual level when transmission in a pandemic is dependent on community behaviour.  Learning to live with the disease comes with a community-level acceptance of the risks and trade-offs required for a given level of exposure.  And there are winners and losers from every trade-off.  It doesn't come from everyone simply acting in line with an outcome that leads to them being winners as an individual.  Ultimately, everyone loses in that scenario.

And so in order to "learn to live with" the disease, you need to have, at a community/state/national level, some overarching consensus of the price you are willing to pay.  That price is not just as a one-off but ongoing.  "Learning to live with" something requires that ongoing payment.

Some communities have done this.  NZ for example.  Through some combination of exceptional leadership and providence, they have reached an overarching consensus that their version of "living with the disease" is by eradicating, maintaining exceptional test and trace practices, a willingness to aggressively isolate if needed and keeping their borders shut to other nations where the virus is out of control.  There is no doubt a cost to this.  Their tourism industry is going to feel a real dose of pain - some companies will go bust, some people's livelihoods will be decimated - but as a nation they have come to a consensus as to what "living with the virus" looks like and the NZ mantra to "be kind" is making a real difference to mitigate that pain for those most affected. 

Taiwan is a similar story, as is South Korea.  Both have taken a similar tack but with the added expectation of turbo-charged personal hygiene practices.  The needs of the community being supported by actions of its individuals, all willing to pay that price in order to "live with the disease".

In comparison, the US is deeply divided.  There is no overarching consensus as to what "living with the disease" looks like in the US and each day that consensus becomes less and less likely.  There is no communal willingness to share the pain and sufficiently support those who are likely to feel the most pain, be it economic or health (or for many scenarios, both), to mitigate the downside of whatever that consensus may look like.  Any degree of willingness that exists is only at the individual level.  You see it every day on this forum, be it in commentary around masks, social distancing, scaling up of personal hygiene practices or opening and closing of businesses/services.  You see it from your President.  Instead of genuinely "learning to live with the disease", there is instead an underlying inference that others need to "learn to live with the disease" on my terms.  And that's not the same.

"Learning to live with the disease" involves changing behaviours, it involves community acceptance and it involves paying a price.  So far the US has been unable to agree on any of these.

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #410 on: June 10, 2020, 07:39:45 PM »

"Learning to live with the disease" involves changing behaviours, it involves community acceptance and it involves paying a price.  So far the US has been unable to agree on any of these.

Interesting.  At least in my community, I'm seeing evidence of all of the above by how people are acting compared to a few months ago.  I don't think this comes about through "agreement".  It comes about through cultural behavior.  From what I can tell, the majority of people have grown exhausted from the panic and their behavior reflects this.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2020, 07:43:59 PM by HBFIRE »

Gremlin

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #411 on: June 10, 2020, 08:41:45 PM »

"Learning to live with the disease" involves changing behaviours, it involves community acceptance and it involves paying a price.  So far the US has been unable to agree on any of these.

Interesting.  At least in my community, I'm seeing evidence of all of the above by how people are acting compared to a few months ago.  I don't think this comes about through "agreement".  It comes about through cultural behavior.  From what I can tell, the majority of people have grown exhausted from the panic and their behavior reflects this.

I don't doubt that's true of a segment of the population.  Everything I see on the news and everything I read here and elsewhere suggests that's nowhere near sufficiently universal to drive the sort of consensus seen in other nations that have genuinely come to terms with living with the disease.  As you've suggested, recent actions have come about through exhaustion, rather than a collective willing acceptance to pay the price that those actions demand.  There is not a consensus in paying the price of new set of actions - that's yet to be paid - rather a rebellion against the price that was being asked previously.

I acknowledge that I could be wrong, in which case the US no longer has a health issue with coronavirus nor will there be any ongoing economic ramifications and everything's back to business as usual.  But if that's the case, there's absolutely no need for someone like you @HBFIRE to be on here spelling out various arguments as to why people need to get on with their lives and "live with the virus".  They'd already be doing so and so would you.  The fact that they aren't and you aren't is actually a fair indication that that consensus doesn't yet exist.  And the irony is that the more you try to argue otherwise, the more you're simply proving the point.

So either the problem is solved.  Or it isn't. 

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #412 on: June 10, 2020, 09:18:05 PM »
But if that's the case, there's absolutely no need for someone like you @HBFIRE to be on here spelling out various arguments as to why people need to get on with their lives and "live with the virus". 

I don't think I've done that.  I'm interested mostly in the general statistics of the virus, which is what I generally comment on.  I'm merely commenting that I think people are moving on and getting back to day to day life.  They've decided, whether right or wrong, the risk isn't worth panicking over any longer.  This appears to be what causes the end of a pandemic rather than an authoritative announcement.  This is also evidenced by the significant drop in media coverage.  The media now has bigger fish to fry.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #413 on: June 10, 2020, 10:43:46 PM »
But if that's the case, there's absolutely no need for someone like you @HBFIRE to be on here spelling out various arguments as to why people need to get on with their lives and "live with the virus". 

I don't think I've done that.  I'm interested mostly in the general statistics of the virus, which is what I generally comment on.  I'm merely commenting that I think people are moving on and getting back to day to day life.  They've decided, whether right or wrong, the risk isn't worth panicking over any longer.  This appears to be what causes the end of a pandemic rather than an authoritative announcement.  This is also evidenced by the significant drop in media coverage.  The media now has bigger fish to fry.

I think this is true. You're right that people have kind of finished with it. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean it's also finished with them. I guess we'll see how that plays out long term, but I don't think it will get the kind of coverage Covid has had up until now.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #414 on: June 10, 2020, 11:03:20 PM »

No authoritative, scientific organization has announced an end to the pandemic

How pandemics end

"In other words, pandemics can end not because a disease has been vanquished but because people grow tired of panic mode and learn to live with a disease. Allan Brandt, a Harvard historian, said something similar was happening with Covid-19: “As we have seen in the debate about opening the economy, many questions about the so-called end are determined not by medical and public health data but by sociopolitical processes.”

Whilst there is some element of truth to that in some cases, the key phrase is "learn to live with" the disease.  It's important to unpack what that means.  It's not a decision that can be made at an individual level when transmission in a pandemic is dependent on community behaviour.  Learning to live with the disease comes with a community-level acceptance of the risks and trade-offs required for a given level of exposure.  And there are winners and losers from every trade-off.  It doesn't come from everyone simply acting in line with an outcome that leads to them being winners as an individual.  Ultimately, everyone loses in that scenario.

And so in order to "learn to live with" the disease, you need to have, at a community/state/national level, some overarching consensus of the price you are willing to pay.  That price is not just as a one-off but ongoing.  "Learning to live with" something requires that ongoing payment.

Some communities have done this.  NZ for example.  Through some combination of exceptional leadership and providence, they have reached an overarching consensus that their version of "living with the disease" is by eradicating, maintaining exceptional test and trace practices, a willingness to aggressively isolate if needed and keeping their borders shut to other nations where the virus is out of control.  There is no doubt a cost to this.  Their tourism industry is going to feel a real dose of pain - some companies will go bust, some people's livelihoods will be decimated - but as a nation they have come to a consensus as to what "living with the virus" looks like and the NZ mantra to "be kind" is making a real difference to mitigate that pain for those most affected. 

Taiwan is a similar story, as is South Korea.  Both have taken a similar tack but with the added expectation of turbo-charged personal hygiene practices.  The needs of the community being supported by actions of its individuals, all willing to pay that price in order to "live with the disease".

In comparison, the US is deeply divided.  There is no overarching consensus as to what "living with the disease" looks like in the US and each day that consensus becomes less and less likely.  There is no communal willingness to share the pain and sufficiently support those who are likely to feel the most pain, be it economic or health (or for many scenarios, both), to mitigate the downside of whatever that consensus may look like.  Any degree of willingness that exists is only at the individual level.  You see it every day on this forum, be it in commentary around masks, social distancing, scaling up of personal hygiene practices or opening and closing of businesses/services.  You see it from your President.  Instead of genuinely "learning to live with the disease", there is instead an underlying inference that others need to "learn to live with the disease" on my terms.  And that's not the same.

"Learning to live with the disease" involves changing behaviours, it involves community acceptance and it involves paying a price.  So far the US has been unable to agree on any of these.

Because the risk (economic, health or otherwise) to individuals, or certain groups, can be higher/lower than for the general population, "learning to live with" the disease can mean different things for different people. Some groups might be subject to more or less onerous conditions. There might not be a consensus on which groups or which conditions those might be. And that's okay. Everyone probably has to do something to help the community, but that "something" is going to vary in intensity and duration.

Gremlin

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #415 on: June 10, 2020, 11:49:39 PM »

No authoritative, scientific organization has announced an end to the pandemic

How pandemics end

"In other words, pandemics can end not because a disease has been vanquished but because people grow tired of panic mode and learn to live with a disease. Allan Brandt, a Harvard historian, said something similar was happening with Covid-19: “As we have seen in the debate about opening the economy, many questions about the so-called end are determined not by medical and public health data but by sociopolitical processes.”

Whilst there is some element of truth to that in some cases, the key phrase is "learn to live with" the disease.  It's important to unpack what that means.  It's not a decision that can be made at an individual level when transmission in a pandemic is dependent on community behaviour.  Learning to live with the disease comes with a community-level acceptance of the risks and trade-offs required for a given level of exposure.  And there are winners and losers from every trade-off.  It doesn't come from everyone simply acting in line with an outcome that leads to them being winners as an individual.  Ultimately, everyone loses in that scenario.

And so in order to "learn to live with" the disease, you need to have, at a community/state/national level, some overarching consensus of the price you are willing to pay.  That price is not just as a one-off but ongoing.  "Learning to live with" something requires that ongoing payment.

Some communities have done this.  NZ for example.  Through some combination of exceptional leadership and providence, they have reached an overarching consensus that their version of "living with the disease" is by eradicating, maintaining exceptional test and trace practices, a willingness to aggressively isolate if needed and keeping their borders shut to other nations where the virus is out of control.  There is no doubt a cost to this.  Their tourism industry is going to feel a real dose of pain - some companies will go bust, some people's livelihoods will be decimated - but as a nation they have come to a consensus as to what "living with the virus" looks like and the NZ mantra to "be kind" is making a real difference to mitigate that pain for those most affected. 

Taiwan is a similar story, as is South Korea.  Both have taken a similar tack but with the added expectation of turbo-charged personal hygiene practices.  The needs of the community being supported by actions of its individuals, all willing to pay that price in order to "live with the disease".

In comparison, the US is deeply divided.  There is no overarching consensus as to what "living with the disease" looks like in the US and each day that consensus becomes less and less likely.  There is no communal willingness to share the pain and sufficiently support those who are likely to feel the most pain, be it economic or health (or for many scenarios, both), to mitigate the downside of whatever that consensus may look like.  Any degree of willingness that exists is only at the individual level.  You see it every day on this forum, be it in commentary around masks, social distancing, scaling up of personal hygiene practices or opening and closing of businesses/services.  You see it from your President.  Instead of genuinely "learning to live with the disease", there is instead an underlying inference that others need to "learn to live with the disease" on my terms.  And that's not the same.

"Learning to live with the disease" involves changing behaviours, it involves community acceptance and it involves paying a price.  So far the US has been unable to agree on any of these.

Because the risk (economic, health or otherwise) to individuals, or certain groups, can be higher/lower than for the general population, "learning to live with" the disease can mean different things for different people. Some groups might be subject to more or less onerous conditions. There might not be a consensus on which groups or which conditions those might be. And that's okay. Everyone probably has to do something to help the community, but that "something" is going to vary in intensity and duration.

I actually agree with that. But lack of consensus is driving what’s happening in the US right now and it’s not cost free. The World Bank is forecasting a bigger and deeper recession for the US than most other Western nations and a worse health outcome than most peer nations. All choices have costs, even the choice not to reach consensus.  The lack of consensus is proving itself to come with both a higher economic cost and a higher health cost.  As you say, that's okay.  That's the choice that's being made.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2020, 12:52:10 AM by Gremlin »

Captain Cactus

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #416 on: June 11, 2020, 12:43:21 PM »

No authoritative, scientific organization has announced an end to the pandemic

How pandemics end

As an apparently healthy looking guy with an unfortunate autoimmune condition all of this makes me even more nervous still.  Again, where's the shared sacrifice?  Everyone wants what they want and they want it now...evidently the elderly and pre-conditioned are expendable.

"In other words, pandemics can end not because a disease has been vanquished but because people grow tired of panic mode and learn to live with a disease. Allan Brandt, a Harvard historian, said something similar was happening with Covid-19: “As we have seen in the debate about opening the economy, many questions about the so-called end are determined not by medical and public health data but by sociopolitical processes.”

Whilst there is some element of truth to that in some cases, the key phrase is "learn to live with" the disease.  It's important to unpack what that means.  It's not a decision that can be made at an individual level when transmission in a pandemic is dependent on community behaviour.  Learning to live with the disease comes with a community-level acceptance of the risks and trade-offs required for a given level of exposure.  And there are winners and losers from every trade-off.  It doesn't come from everyone simply acting in line with an outcome that leads to them being winners as an individual.  Ultimately, everyone loses in that scenario.

And so in order to "learn to live with" the disease, you need to have, at a community/state/national level, some overarching consensus of the price you are willing to pay.  That price is not just as a one-off but ongoing.  "Learning to live with" something requires that ongoing payment.

Some communities have done this.  NZ for example.  Through some combination of exceptional leadership and providence, they have reached an overarching consensus that their version of "living with the disease" is by eradicating, maintaining exceptional test and trace practices, a willingness to aggressively isolate if needed and keeping their borders shut to other nations where the virus is out of control.  There is no doubt a cost to this.  Their tourism industry is going to feel a real dose of pain - some companies will go bust, some people's livelihoods will be decimated - but as a nation they have come to a consensus as to what "living with the virus" looks like and the NZ mantra to "be kind" is making a real difference to mitigate that pain for those most affected. 

Taiwan is a similar story, as is South Korea.  Both have taken a similar tack but with the added expectation of turbo-charged personal hygiene practices.  The needs of the community being supported by actions of its individuals, all willing to pay that price in order to "live with the disease".

In comparison, the US is deeply divided.  There is no overarching consensus as to what "living with the disease" looks like in the US and each day that consensus becomes less and less likely.  There is no communal willingness to share the pain and sufficiently support those who are likely to feel the most pain, be it economic or health (or for many scenarios, both), to mitigate the downside of whatever that consensus may look like.  Any degree of willingness that exists is only at the individual level.  You see it every day on this forum, be it in commentary around masks, social distancing, scaling up of personal hygiene practices or opening and closing of businesses/services.  You see it from your President.  Instead of genuinely "learning to live with the disease", there is instead an underlying inference that others need to "learn to live with the disease" on my terms.  And that's not the same.

"Learning to live with the disease" involves changing behaviours, it involves community acceptance and it involves paying a price.  So far the US has been unable to agree on any of these.

Because the risk (economic, health or otherwise) to individuals, or certain groups, can be higher/lower than for the general population, "learning to live with" the disease can mean different things for different people. Some groups might be subject to more or less onerous conditions. There might not be a consensus on which groups or which conditions those might be. And that's okay. Everyone probably has to do something to help the community, but that "something" is going to vary in intensity and duration.

I actually agree with that. But lack of consensus is driving what’s happening in the US right now and it’s not cost free. The World Bank is forecasting a bigger and deeper recession for the US than most other Western nations and a worse health outcome than most peer nations. All choices have costs, even the choice not to reach consensus.  The lack of consensus is proving itself to come with both a higher economic cost and a higher health cost.  As you say, that's okay.  That's the choice that's being made.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #417 on: June 11, 2020, 03:01:41 PM »
But if that's the case, there's absolutely no need for someone like you @HBFIRE to be on here spelling out various arguments as to why people need to get on with their lives and "live with the virus". 

I don't think I've done that.  I'm interested mostly in the general statistics of the virus, which is what I generally comment on.  I'm merely commenting that I think people are moving on and getting back to day to day life.  They've decided, whether right or wrong, the risk isn't worth panicking over any longer.  This appears to be what causes the end of a pandemic rather than an authoritative announcement.  This is also evidenced by the significant drop in media coverage.  The media now has bigger fish to fry.

I don't happen to like it, but "living with the virus" is probably how this will end up. There has been no end of PSAs and media coverage and rules and edicts with regard to masking up and social distancing.  And folks just aren't doing it in some places.  You can't fix pathologically irresponsible. 

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #418 on: June 11, 2020, 07:57:24 PM »
US Hospital Census Data.  Starting to see some similarity to market panic forecasts.


dougules

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #419 on: June 12, 2020, 11:02:57 AM »
While we've been US-focused it looks like everybody's favorite example, Sweden, is having a noticeable uptick, too.  It had the highest number of new cases in Europe outside of Russia yesterday, and that's with a pretty small population. 

lemanfan

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #420 on: June 12, 2020, 01:08:30 PM »
While we've been US-focused it looks like everybody's favorite example, Sweden, is having a noticeable uptick, too.  It had the highest number of new cases in Europe outside of Russia yesterday, and that's with a pretty small population.

Just out of curiosity, what source and what number is that?

If it refers to the number of "confirmed cases of infection", please note that Sweden just now is increasing testing for persons with mild symptoms.  Up until very recently, you could basically only get a test in (in the public healthcare system) if you either was a hospital worker/care giver or if you were ill enough to be considered for hospitalization from respiratory symptoms.

But now, testing is being increased to anyone with also mild symptoms. 

Official statistics up until June 7th is shown here:



From top to bottom:
 
The pink is positive test for care givers.
The green that increased last week are these new tests
The purple in the bottom are people hospitalized with COVID-19 (all hospitalization, not just ICU).

This basically means that we last week (week 23, june 1-7) had a 35% increase in the number of tests, and also a high number of increase in confirmed cases, mostly mild cases. We did not have an increase in hospitalizations due to the illness. Yes, it is still many cases, but increased testing affects how you should interpret the tests.  Since I'm not showing any symptoms, I still cannot get tested here in Sweden (to the best of my knowledge).

So, still many cases, and I shall not say I'm happy with the situation... but it is what it is - I would not really use the word "uptick".

Source:  https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/folkhalsorapportering-statistik/statistik-a-o/sjukdomsstatistik/covid-19-veckorapporter/senaste-covidrapporten/  taken today (june 12, 2020) and https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/globalassets/statistik-uppfoljning/smittsamma-sjukdomar/veckorapporter-covid-19/2020/covid-19-veckorapport-vecka-23-final.pdf

(sorry, Swedish sources only)

dougules

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #421 on: June 12, 2020, 03:01:33 PM »
Just out of curiosity, what source and what number is that?

If it refers to the number of "confirmed cases of infection", please note that Sweden just now is increasing testing for persons with mild symptoms.  Up until very recently, you could basically only get a test in (in the public healthcare system) if you either was a hospital worker/care giver or if you were ill enough to be considered for hospitalization from respiratory symptoms.

But now, testing is being increased to anyone with also mild symptoms. 

Thanks for the clarification.  I was just using the straight number from Worldometer.  Numbers always need some context. 

Even if it's not an actual uptick, it's still a revelation that the actual numbers are still pretty high for a country with so few people.  But you seem aware.  It's just that there are people on this side of the Atlantic who like to point to Sweden as some kind of example of social distancing being unneeded. 

(Swedish doesn't scare me.  It's close enough to English that I can navigate it with a good dose of help from Google Translate.  If it were Finnish, though, I would give up.) 

Bloop Bloop

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #422 on: June 12, 2020, 10:48:18 PM »
US Hospital Census Data.  Starting to see some similarity to market panic forecasts.



The markets would have had a lot of trouble had the fed not pumped in trillions of dollars.

I query whether bolstering the shares of rich people was worth the massive deficit that we will eventually have to pay back.

lemanfan

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #423 on: June 13, 2020, 12:18:05 AM »
Even if it's not an actual uptick, it's still a revelation that the actual numbers are still pretty high for a country with so few people.  But you seem aware.  It's just that there are people on this side of the Atlantic who like to point to Sweden as some kind of example of social distancing being unneeded. 

As a Swede, I'm quite used to having my countries choices used for various political statements in primarily the USA without people actually wanting to know the full truth, as the full complex picture may not support their thesis. And the case even was before this pandemic.

Sweden do have social distancing mandates, but a little bit less so than other countries.  The latest update was to still isolate, especially for the 70+ crowd, but internal travel up to 2 hours from your residence is no longer discouraged.  Before, we were recommended to refrain from domestic travel at all, especially to or from Stockholm.

We do have the financial effects of the pandemic - not sure if they are less than in other comparable countries.  I live in the center of a mid size city and about a third of the stores near my apartment have either closed down in a controlled fashion, folded into bankruptcy or are in some sort of bankruptcy protection. All stores and restaurants that are still open operate at a reduced time schedule and with a bare minimum staff. But the less strict lockdown may also be a way to keep up the social distancing for a bit longer than with a more strict lockdown which we have seen will sometimes create backlashes and protests.

As for the absolute numbers... yes, high, especially in some cities.  If you'd take away the 80+ age group I'm not so sure the numbers would be that different from other countries, but I don't have the energy to make the comparison for real so let's assume were harder hit than our neighbors.  Like many countries, we are pretty far from the New Zeeland situation, but also below current max ICU capacity.

The changes imposed by this situation will remain for a long long time.

(Swedish doesn't scare me.  It's close enough to English that I can navigate it with a good dose of help from Google Translate.  If it were Finnish, though, I would give up.)

Smart.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2020, 12:22:19 AM by lemanfan »

lemanfan

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #424 on: June 13, 2020, 12:37:51 AM »

Sweden do have social distancing mandates, but a little bit less so than other countries.  The latest update was to still isolate, especially for the 70+ crowd, but internal travel up to 2 hours from your residence is no longer discouraged.  Before, we were recommended to refrain from domestic travel at all, especially to or from Stockholm.


I'm behind my time... we're now (starting monday) allowed to travel freely within Sweden, but more or less discouraged to take public transport when doing so, especially for the elderly.

SisterX

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #425 on: June 13, 2020, 12:57:18 AM »
Apparently a young woman (20s, no prior health concerns) in Chicago underwent a double lung transplant due to COVID-19. The picture of her lung is incredible. If you're easily grossed out it just might make you throw up.

Also, here's a fascinating article about the patients for whom the symptoms linger for months. Many of them got sick in March and are still battling symptoms. (Here's another article.) Almost all of these people weren't sick enough to be admitted to the hospital so technically they're classified as "mild" cases.

US Hospital Census Data.  Starting to see some similarity to market panic forecasts.

Where did you get that graph? Genuinely curious, because I can't find it anywhere.

OtherJen

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #426 on: June 13, 2020, 08:01:54 AM »
Apparently a young woman (20s, no prior health concerns) in Chicago underwent a double lung transplant due to COVID-19. The picture of her lung is incredible. If you're easily grossed out it just might make you throw up.

Also, here's a fascinating article about the patients for whom the symptoms linger for months. Many of them got sick in March and are still battling symptoms. (Here's another article.) Almost all of these people weren't sick enough to be admitted to the hospital so technically they're classified as "mild" cases.

You’ve just invoked the “well, they didn’t die and that’s the only metric that counts” crowd.

(I agree with you, but good luck getting this point across. It hasn’t worked yet.)

Missy B

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #427 on: June 13, 2020, 11:17:53 PM »
Personally I'm still nervous about returning to business as usual.  I know everyone's gotten bored with quarantining and they've decided they've had enough, they deserve a summer break, etc... What happened to shared sacrifice?

No authoritative, scientific organization has announced an end to the pandemic, so I'll still staying put as long as possible.  Yes, I miss being out there, going on vacations, visiting my mom, etc... but you gotta do what you can to stay healthy and keep others healthy.

Yeah, I mean, places in the US are opening back up, but not because much has changed. More because people are bored and putting pressure on elected officials.

Most of my local friends are starting to go out and do stuff again. DH and I are not changing our behavior at all. We're not going to start going to restaurants, our gym, etc. etc. Not getting my hair cut, either.

Of everyone in our circle, the one friend that is doing the same as us... is an epidemiologist.
Our weekend potluck group started up again.  Soft startup. The person who sent the text is a non-vaxxer who just says "take vitamin C!"  She's also in her 60s, as his her husband. 

Dear Jaysus. If it were me I would defriend them now... a super-spreader event waiting to happen.
And That old saw about Vitamin C. It does sweet FA for COVID. Vitamin D might actually be very helpful in reducing cytokine storm but needs more study. Several times when I bring up Vitamin D and how most Canadians are deficient I hear 'Oh! Well I'm already taking Vitamin C'. As in, I don't need to take D, because, you know, C is also a Vitamin.

By the way, Vitamin D is why white people are white. If you live up north and you are black, you will not get enough D because your skin blocks too much UV to get a good conversion rate.
Anyway, I looked up the studies on C and COVID, and as I suspected, it does not help.

lhamo

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #428 on: June 14, 2020, 09:57:42 AM »
Several times when I bring up Vitamin D and how most Canadians are deficient I hear 'Oh! Well I'm already taking Vitamin C'. As in, I don't need to take D, because, you know, C is also a Vitamin.

I wonder how long it would take for a fake "scientific" paper that argues that if you can't get Vitamin D you can just take Vitamin C as a stand-in because they are "vitaminically adjacent" to spread via Facebook shares?  Is the R naught of such a proposition higher or lower than the Covid R naught in a given population?

MudPuppy

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #429 on: June 14, 2020, 10:29:03 AM »
D stands for Data Collection and Bill Gates added a nanochip to vitamin D supplements to track citizens.

GuitarStv

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #430 on: June 14, 2020, 10:39:21 AM »
D stands for Data Collection and Bill Gates added a nanochip to vitamin D supplements to track citizens.

C stands for Collection of Data though, so if you take vitamin C and walk near a 5G network Bill Gates can read your mind.  So, damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Disclaimer- the preceeding message is only as factually acurate as anything you might hear from the president of the US.  React accordingly.

Missy B

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #431 on: June 14, 2020, 04:37:57 PM »
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/vitamin-d-covid-19/

Vitamin D may protect from viral infection and ameliorate the symptoms of Covid-19, including the cytokine storm.

One of the recent vitamin D studies demonstrated that in 20 European countries, an association exists between low levels of vitamin D and higher numbers of Covid-19 cases and mortality. Vitamin D levels are found to be severely low for the older population in these countries, especially in Spain, Italy, and Switzerland. As these are some of the more vulnerable populations to developing Covid-19, this might play an important role in vulnerability to the disease.

Another recent Indonesian retrospective cohort study of 780 Covid-19 patients indicated that the majority of death cases had below-normal vitamin D levels and that vitamin D status was strongly associated with Covid-19 mortality.

Vitamin D has a known effect on the immune system, as previous studies have found an association between susceptibility to respiratory tract infections and low vitamin D levels.

hops

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #432 on: June 14, 2020, 07:30:03 PM »
After seeing my PCP recently for a completely unrelated reason, she wanted to go over Covid-19 precautions since I'm on immunosuppressants. As part of that conversation she went over the latest reports about vitamin D and asked to check mine, since deficiency's common in Crohn's patients. A few days later she called to say I'd need to take prescription vitamin D for three months until a recheck. It's the only pandemic tweak any of my doctors have made to my care so far (besides a routine scope being delayed).

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #433 on: June 14, 2020, 07:42:06 PM »
Today marked the lowest US covid-19 death toll since March 25th.  Amazingly, Brazil and Mexico both reported higher numbers.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2020, 07:44:16 PM by HBFIRE »

OtherJen

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #434 on: June 14, 2020, 07:51:50 PM »
Today marked the lowest US covid-19 death toll since March 25th.  Amazingly, Brazil and Mexico both reported higher numbers.

Maybe don’t get too optimistic yet.

Record spikes in new coronavirus cases, hospitalizations sweep parts of U.S.

Quote
Perhaps more troubling for health officials, many of these states are also seeing record hospitalizations - a metric not affected by increased testing.

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #435 on: June 14, 2020, 07:58:49 PM »

Maybe don’t get too optimistic yet.



Right.  However, total US tests performed are now 500K+/day as opposed to 300K/day just 2 weeks ago.  We are testing at a much higher rate and positive % is now at ~ 4-5%.  Drastically lower than it was in early April when it was 15-20%.

MudPuppy

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #436 on: June 14, 2020, 08:00:27 PM »
We’ve BEEN testing at these rates for about 6 weeks in many areas. The increase is real.

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #437 on: June 14, 2020, 08:01:19 PM »
We’ve BEEN testing at these rates for about 6 weeks in many areas. The increase is real.

It definitely varies by area, I'm referring to total US testing numbers.  We are now at 500K+, and just 2 weeks ago we were at approximately 300K tests performed/day.  Hospitalization rates though, are something to definitely monitor.

OtherJen

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #438 on: June 14, 2020, 08:01:57 PM »

Maybe don’t get too optimistic yet.



Right.  However, total US tests performed are now 500K+/day as opposed to 300K/day just 2 weeks ago.  We are testing at a much higher rate and positive % is now at ~ 4-5%.  Drastically lower than it was in early April when it was 15-20%.

Somehow, you keep missing the point about record COVID-19 hospitalizations in several states. That’s not an effect of increased testing.

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #439 on: June 14, 2020, 08:03:41 PM »

Somehow, you keep missing the point about record COVID-19 hospitalizations in several states. That’s not an effect of increased testing.

I acknowledged above that is something we will want to monitor. 

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #440 on: June 14, 2020, 08:24:01 PM »
Here is the CDC data for total US hospitalizations by week.  We are at about 1/3 of where we were at the peak and trending downward.  Obviously curves are local and can vary, but the overall US trend is continuing downward.  The media will cherry pick data to make the overall picture seem dire.  Should have a new week to update on here within the next day to see if the trend is continuing.



« Last Edit: June 14, 2020, 08:35:41 PM by HBFIRE »

SisterX

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #441 on: June 14, 2020, 10:14:34 PM »
Here is the CDC data for total US hospitalizations by week.  We are at about 1/3 of where we were at the peak and trending downward.  Obviously curves are local and can vary, but the overall US trend is continuing downward.  The media will cherry pick data to make the overall picture seem dire.  Should have a new week to update on here within the next day to see if the trend is continuing.


Is it really "cherry-picking" though? Like, if I live in L.A. then it really doesn't matter so much to me if the cases in Maine are staying flat, but it REALLY matters of the cases in my area are going up or down. Particularly if I or any of my loved ones locally have any risk factors. To say that cases and hospitalizations are going up astronomically in FL, TX, SC, etc., isn't "cherry-picking". It's reporting relevant data. Just because it doesn't fit with your narrative that "it's over, there's nothing to see here" doesn't make it not relevant to the conversation. And the attitude you have toward this, trying to run a victory lap at this point in the game, is EXACTLY why cases are starting to trend upward again pretty much everywhere. Just because you are done with taking precautions (if you ever did) doesn't mean that the virus has gone away. As of today, the US had just under 20,000 new cases and 326 new deaths (via this source). There's also very strong evidence that there is political pressure to hide the actual figures. Surprise, FL has an unknown illness that's killing more people than they're reporting died of COVID. Doesn't that seem a little strange to you? NY has at least been listing people who died without a positive test as probable COVID deaths and reporting them as such. FL and other states have not. They just have people dying at far higher than historical rates during a pandemic for no known reason. It couldn't possibly be tied to the fact that they want to put people back to work in a hurry and distract from their disastrous unemployment website, or the fact that only 8% of unemployed people in FL actually got their benefits, to make the governor look better. No one would be that heartless. Right?

SunnyDays

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #442 on: June 14, 2020, 10:25:13 PM »
Missy B - “Vitamin D levels are why white people are white.”  I think you mean melanin?

lemanfan

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #443 on: June 14, 2020, 11:20:17 PM »
Missy B - “Vitamin D levels are why white people are white.”  I think you mean melanin?

Different level on the "why", I guess?

former player

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #444 on: June 15, 2020, 02:08:41 AM »
Interesting in HBFIRE's graph that the big decline in hospitalisations has been in the 65+ group, with working age hospitalisations holding steadier.

That could be the result of older people taking more precautions?  And working age people unwilling or unable (because economic pressures) to?

(I'm assuming not all the vulnerable old people in the USA have died yet.)

Imma

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #445 on: June 15, 2020, 06:11:30 AM »
After seeing my PCP recently for a completely unrelated reason, she wanted to go over Covid-19 precautions since I'm on immunosuppressants. As part of that conversation she went over the latest reports about vitamin D and asked to check mine, since deficiency's common in Crohn's patients. A few days later she called to say I'd need to take prescription vitamin D for three months until a recheck. It's the only pandemic tweak any of my doctors have made to my care so far (besides a routine scope being delayed).

I think we've compared notes on our health issue before, I have the same condition and also pretty severe. I'm surprised you aren't already on vitamin D as in my country vitamin D is routinely prescribed for everyone with Crohn's, because there's evidence it helps fight the inflammation. So hopefully it will have a positive effect on your health! I read the same research so my healthy partner is now taking vitamin D as well, as a precaution. He isn't likely to be very deficient because he has a very light skin and we live in a northern area and goes outside every day. But this feels like one of the few things we can do to lower the risk.

From what I've heard from my doctor (who is the biggest authority in my country) users of biologicals aren't in the highest risk category when it comes to Covid-19 so I hope he's right. A 'mild' Covid infection could be pretty serious for us, but the severe reaction where the body goes into cytokine storm doesn't seem to happen in users of biologicals, since our immune system is so weak it can't attack itself. Which is why some biologicals are considered as Covid-19 meds. On one hand a medicine would be revolutionary but I would be very scared if my medication turned out to be the cure. I'd likely be low priority since I'm not going to die if I don't get my meds next week, but I could die if I couldn't get them for a year.
Hopefully my doctor is right, but we're still early in the pandemic so he has warned me to continue to behave like I am in the highest risk category just in case.

Which is easy since I work from home, but unfortunately I have heard I will likely loose my job in the fall. I'm glad my boss has already informally let me know so I have enough time to brush up my CV and get ready to find a new job, but I enjoy this job and I hate jobhunting.

By the River

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #446 on: June 15, 2020, 10:20:19 AM »
Here is the CDC data for total US hospitalizations by week.  We are at about 1/3 of where we were at the peak and trending downward.  Obviously curves are local and can vary, but the overall US trend is continuing downward.  The media will cherry pick data to make the overall picture seem dire.  Should have a new week to update on here within the next day to see if the trend is continuing.


Is it really "cherry-picking" though? Like, if I live in L.A. then it really doesn't matter so much to me if the cases in Maine are staying flat, but it REALLY matters of the cases in my area are going up or down. Particularly if I or any of my loved ones locally have any risk factors. To say that cases and hospitalizations are going up astronomically in FL, TX, SC, etc., isn't "cherry-picking". It's reporting relevant data. Just because it doesn't fit with your narrative that "it's over, there's nothing to see here" doesn't make it not relevant to the conversation. And the attitude you have toward this, trying to run a victory lap at this point in the game, is EXACTLY why cases are starting to trend upward again pretty much everywhere. Just because you are done with taking precautions (if you ever did) doesn't mean that the virus has gone away. As of today, the US had just under 20,000 new cases and 326 new deaths (via this source). There's also very strong evidence that there is political pressure to hide the actual figures. Surprise, FL has an unknown illness that's killing more people than they're reporting died of COVID. Doesn't that seem a little strange to you? NY has at least been listing people who died without a positive test as probable COVID deaths and reporting them as such. FL and other states have not. They just have people dying at far higher than historical rates during a pandemic for no known reason. It couldn't possibly be tied to the fact that they want to put people back to work in a hurry and distract from their disastrous unemployment website, or the fact that only 8% of unemployed people in FL actually got their benefits, to make the governor look better. No one would be that heartless. Right?

I think there is a lot of cherry picking of stats going on with all sides but in regards to the article there is a line. "In Louisiana, which had been one of the earlier virus hot spots, new cases were again on the rise with over 1,200 - the most there since May 21."  That is a factual statement but ignores the fact that a testing site just began reporting data to the state.  So on June 12, there were 9,861 tests and 523 cases (5.3%) reported and on June 13, there were 24,289 tests and 1,288 cases (5.3%).  (June 14, there was 336 cases but Sunday is always the lowest number each week)  This testing site that just began reporting had tests back to April 25.  The May 21 date also had another large site begin reporting.  The statewide 7 day average without the old tests is 440 with almost 10,000 actual tests given per day.   

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #447 on: June 15, 2020, 10:26:59 AM »

Just because it doesn't fit with your narrative that "it's over, there's nothing to see here" doesn't make it not relevant to the conversation.
I never stated it's over.  I'm providing the actual data and allowing everyone to draw their own conclusion.  Media driven panic is harmful.  It's important to look at the actual stats objectively.  It's similar to the stock market in a way. 

Just because you are done with taking precautions (if you ever did) doesn't mean that the virus has gone away.

You seem to make a lot of presumptions.  I've never indicated what precautions I personally take. Please don't make baseless attacks, let's keep it civil.


NY has at least been listing people who died without a positive test as probable COVID death

This is true, and is problematic in itself.  NY also tested patients who were probable Covid 19 cases (symptomatic) with a positive rate in the range of 5-30%.  With this low of a "success" rate, how can we confidently diagnose deaths as "probable" that were never tested? 

« Last Edit: June 15, 2020, 10:30:26 AM by HBFIRE »

hops

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #448 on: June 15, 2020, 10:47:22 AM »
I think we've compared notes on our health issue before, I have the same condition and also pretty severe. I'm surprised you aren't already on vitamin D as in my country vitamin D is routinely prescribed for everyone with Crohn's, because there's evidence it helps fight the inflammation. So hopefully it will have a positive effect on your health! I read the same research so my healthy partner is now taking vitamin D as well, as a precaution. He isn't likely to be very deficient because he has a very light skin and we live in a northern area and goes outside every day. But this feels like one of the few things we can do to lower the risk.

From what I've heard from my doctor (who is the biggest authority in my country) users of biologicals aren't in the highest risk category when it comes to Covid-19 so I hope he's right. A 'mild' Covid infection could be pretty serious for us, but the severe reaction where the body goes into cytokine storm doesn't seem to happen in users of biologicals, since our immune system is so weak it can't attack itself. Which is why some biologicals are considered as Covid-19 meds. On one hand a medicine would be revolutionary but I would be very scared if my medication turned out to be the cure. I'd likely be low priority since I'm not going to die if I don't get my meds next week, but I could die if I couldn't get them for a year.
Hopefully my doctor is right, but we're still early in the pandemic so he has warned me to continue to behave like I am in the highest risk category just in case.

Which is easy since I work from home, but unfortunately I have heard I will likely loose my job in the fall. I'm glad my boss has already informally let me know so I have enough time to brush up my CV and get ready to find a new job, but I enjoy this job and I hate jobhunting.

I'm sorry to hear about your job, Imma, and hope something changes that will allow you to keep it.

I've taken vitamin D at various points in the past with no measurable effect on my conditions, but I'm glad the PCP mentioned her Covid-19 concerns and ordered the labs. My GI (an esteemed IBD specialist) and rheumatologist have repeatedly stressed to keep taking biologics, along with the usual advice on staying home, wearing masks in public, and hand-washing. They're less keen on steroids and aren't prescribing them as much if there are alternatives.

Our IBD cases might be a bit different in that I've had extensive surgery and if I recall correctly, you've avoided that so far. The deficiency I struggle with the most is potassium. My diet's rich in it, I just don't absorb much of it. To avoid hospitalization for hypokalemia I use prescription potassium powder packets daily (because I don't absorb the pills, either). Dehydration is one of our chief worries, should I get Covid-19, since it happens very rapidly for j-pouch patients even when we're healthy.

Despite our best efforts to avoid hospitalization during this, I had complications and needed a minor operation a few weeks ago. The timing was accidentally close to perfect because the hospital was nearly empty, which was somewhat eerie. The C19 patients were kept far away from the rest of us and many staffers wore shields over their masks. I wore a mask whenever I could even though one of the nurses (the same one who, unprompted, shared anti-vaxxer views) said it wasn't necessary.

Imma

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #449 on: June 15, 2020, 12:04:02 PM »
@hops you're right, so far I have refused surgery. Of course dehydration from a 'mild' case can be dangerous then, even if you don't go into cytokine storm. And so is hypokalemia. I'm sorry to hear you needed surgery, hopefully you're recovering well. I also still get my biologicals every 6 weeks and hospitals are indeed a bit creepy now. In my country medical masks can only be used for Covid-19 patients and severely immunocompromised patients (chemo) as there's still a shortage, so my nurses have to treat me without a mask. That feels pretty scary, even though everyone is checked twice for symptoms and temperature before they enter hospital. I have a minor flare-up in my joints and we are indeed trying to manage that without steroids. I hate steroids anyway so I'm fine with that. I honestly haven't really noticed vitamin D being very effective either, but doctors around here are pretty strict about it.