Author Topic: This quarantine shit’s getting real  (Read 69012 times)

OtherJen

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #350 on: May 28, 2020, 11:10:44 AM »
I have a pair of close friends who are completely anti-mask and anti-quarantine. Every single day they make facebook posts about how their freedoms are being infringed upon and the husband even posted the other day bragging about going to the grocery store without a mask on. He works at Target and has been working through the whole pandemic, so he is exposed every single day and he can't seem to understand that he is exposing others by going around without a mask on. He says if you are scared you can wear a mask but he won't be doing it. (Although he does wear one at work since he is required to. He just complains about it).

Then last week they decided to take a road trip from Denver to Mount Rushmore. They honestly don't see anything wrong with what they did. They ate every meal in restaurants and stayed in hotels. They made a million facebook posts during the trip and kept commenting on how nice it was to be in states that didn't require masks and how great it was to sit down in a restaurant to eat and to not see a mask in sight. Apparently WY, NE, and SD didn't have the same quarantine rules as CO. I just hope they didn't leave a path of infection behind them. There is a reason why the "safer at home" orders in CO say that you shouldn't travel more than 10 miles from your home or leave your county.

What selfish, childish babies. I have lost tolerance for people who are so privileged that they do not understand the difference between "essential rights" and "I want to do whatever I want, whenever and however I want, regardless of consequences." If their rights were truly infringed upon, they wouldn't be able to travel interstate or go to work at all. Good lord.

obstinate

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #351 on: May 28, 2020, 11:17:31 AM »
What selfish, childish babies. I have lost tolerance for people who are so privileged that they do not understand the difference between "essential rights" and "I want to do whatever I want, whenever and however I want, regardless of consequences." If their rights were truly infringed upon, they wouldn't be able to travel interstate or go to work at all. Good lord.
My brother sent me a link to a beautiful Twitter thread on this subject:

https://twitter.com/stephycha/status/1264707268181757952?s=21

"I dislike inconvenience and discomfort as much as the next person, but I wore a mask while giving birth to a whole-ass baby. Who are these feeble losers who whine about wearing masks to run half-hour errands? I kept the mask on while I lost 1.5 liters of blood, and for the two days I spent in recovery. I kept it on when I saw my baby in the NICU, even though it meant waiting to kiss him until we went home. But sure, you need your deep breaths in the frozen food aisle, what the fuck."

Bloop Bloop

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #352 on: May 28, 2020, 04:30:56 PM »
Everyone has different tolerance levels for personal discomfort. I can stay up 15 hours straight working - but I wouldn't expect others to make the same sacrifice.

Not everyone has the same risk/cost calculation in their heads for each situation and each sacrifice.

Personally I find wearing a mask very irritating. It fogs up my glasses too. So I don't wear one.

RetiredAt63

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #353 on: May 28, 2020, 07:58:34 PM »
Everyone has different tolerance levels for personal discomfort. I can stay up 15 hours straight working - but I wouldn't expect others to make the same sacrifice.

Not everyone has the same risk/cost calculation in their heads for each situation and each sacrifice.

Personally I find wearing a mask very irritating. It fogs up my glasses too. So I don't wear one.

Would you still avoid the irritation of a mask if you lived in a high risk area and could be infectious?  You are very privileged living in Australia right now.

SisterX

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #354 on: May 28, 2020, 08:53:35 PM »
Everyone has different tolerance levels for personal discomfort. I can stay up 15 hours straight working - but I wouldn't expect others to make the same sacrifice.

Not everyone has the same risk/cost calculation in their heads for each situation and each sacrifice.

Personally I find wearing a mask very irritating. It fogs up my glasses too. So I don't wear one.

Ah yes, God forbid you avoid killing someone else because it would fog up your glasses.

And just because YOU don't have to bear the brunt of a risk/cost analysis doesn't mean the people around you aren't forced into that. Even more so if you don't wear a mask.

I get that you're in Australia, but pushing the "masks are pointless" narrative in any way, shape, or form is unhelpful at the very least, and catastrophic at worst.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #355 on: May 28, 2020, 09:43:38 PM »
Everyone has different tolerance levels for personal discomfort. I can stay up 15 hours straight working - but I wouldn't expect others to make the same sacrifice.

Not everyone has the same risk/cost calculation in their heads for each situation and each sacrifice.

Personally I find wearing a mask very irritating. It fogs up my glasses too. So I don't wear one.

Would you still avoid the irritation of a mask if you lived in a high risk area and could be infectious?  You are very privileged living in Australia right now.

In that case I would definitely wear a mask.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #356 on: May 28, 2020, 09:44:53 PM »
Everyone has different tolerance levels for personal discomfort. I can stay up 15 hours straight working - but I wouldn't expect others to make the same sacrifice.

Not everyone has the same risk/cost calculation in their heads for each situation and each sacrifice.

Personally I find wearing a mask very irritating. It fogs up my glasses too. So I don't wear one.

Ah yes, God forbid you avoid killing someone else because it would fog up your glasses.

And just because YOU don't have to bear the brunt of a risk/cost analysis doesn't mean the people around you aren't forced into that. Even more so if you don't wear a mask.

I get that you're in Australia, but pushing the "masks are pointless" narrative in any way, shape, or form is unhelpful at the very least, and catastrophic at worst.

Everyone has to do his/her own cost/benefit analysis. If the people around me are that worried they can wear a mask and gloves, or not go outside, or do what they like. Only about 10-15% of the people around me are wearing a mask, so I guess that's the great thing about having individual choice. Pushing the "masks are imperative" narrative is just as misleading.

LifePhaseTwo

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #357 on: May 28, 2020, 09:52:05 PM »
In a pandemic, it’s not about doing our own thing; it’s about understanding how we all affect each other, and we need to behave in ways that protect ourselves and each other.

Poundwise

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #358 on: May 29, 2020, 07:43:20 AM »
Everyone has to do his/her own cost/benefit analysis. If the people around me are that worried they can wear a mask and gloves, or not go outside, or do what they like. Only about 10-15% of the people around me are wearing a mask, so I guess that's the great thing about having individual choice. Pushing the "masks are imperative" narrative is just as misleading.

Masks are much more effective at keeping contagion IN than keeping contagion OUT.  If everybody were to wear a mask when out and about, the time needed to quarantine and to wear masks at all would be shorter.   Well, Australia is happily isolated and I don't know what your covid numbers are like, so it may not be so much of an issue where you are. 

Sure is in NY, though. We're basically back to where we were when the quarantine started, and fools are running around without masks and complaining about any measures being taken to slow the reopening.  Why, if these numbers were scary enough to start a quarantine back in March, are they not so scary now, thousands of deaths later?

obstinate

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #359 on: May 29, 2020, 07:47:02 AM »
Everyone has to do his/her own cost/benefit analysis. If the people around me are that worried they can wear a mask and gloves, or not go outside, or do what they like. Only about 10-15% of the people around me are wearing a mask, so I guess that's the great thing about having individual choice. Pushing the "masks are imperative" narrative is just as misleading.

Sure is in NY, though. We're basically back to where we were when the quarantine started, and fools are running around without masks and complaining about any measures being taken to slow the reopening.  Why, if these numbers were scary enough to start a quarantine back in March, are they not so scary now, thousands of deaths later?
Bloop Bloop has consistently demonstrated an inability to understand that sometimes things you do have a chance of negatively affecting those around you, and that if everyone does those things it becomes a certainty. This is a blindness that afflicts libertarian-minded people sometimes, and I'm afraid there's no configuration of words you can put in an internet comment that can pull back the wool over the eyes.

OtherJen

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #360 on: May 29, 2020, 07:57:21 AM »
Everyone has to do his/her own cost/benefit analysis. If the people around me are that worried they can wear a mask and gloves, or not go outside, or do what they like. Only about 10-15% of the people around me are wearing a mask, so I guess that's the great thing about having individual choice. Pushing the "masks are imperative" narrative is just as misleading.

Masks are much more effective at keeping contagion IN than keeping contagion OUT.  If everybody were to wear a mask when out and about, the time needed to quarantine and to wear masks at all would be shorter.   Well, Australia is happily isolated and I don't know what your covid numbers are like, so it may not be so much of an issue where you are. 

Sure is in NY, though. We're basically back to where we were when the quarantine started, and fools are running around without masks and complaining about any measures being taken to slow the reopening.  Why, if these numbers were scary enough to start a quarantine back in March, are they not so scary now, thousands of deaths later?

This. I don't like wearing a mask either, but if it means we can move about more freely and safely in indoor spaces it seems like a fair trade-off.

Dr Kidstache

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #361 on: May 29, 2020, 08:14:10 AM »
Here are a few articles that I (more educated in vetting & interpreting pandemic info than your average bear) think are compelling and interesting.

People are trying to make decisions about their personal risk and their risk to those around them. But many people are encountering mis-/dis-information about coronavirus that impact their ability to make reasonable decisions. Here is an article from the journal Nature about the state of the coronavirus "infodemic": https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01452-z (I can post links to resources on identifying coronavirus mis-/dis-information if folks are interested)

Decision-making is fraught with cognitive biases even in the best of circumstances. During periods of high uncertainty and stress, cognitive biases are exacerbated. That's why professionals in high stress environments (like fighter jet pilots or critical care resuscitation teams for example) rely on checklists and protocols and receive training in cognitive biases. People who are attempting to make personal risk/benefit decisions are being influenced in all sorts of ways that they're not aware of. Here is an article from Knowable about our ability to make decisions during the pandemic: https://www.knowablemagazine.org/article/mind/2020/how-we-make-decisions-during-pandemic

And, for the love of all that is holy, masks are effective. Full stop. Period. 6 ft may not even be far enough apart. The duration of time in riskier environments (like anywhere indoors) directly impacts the risk of transmission. Here's a brief article from the journal Science: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2020/05/27/science.abc6197.full.pdf

In summary, don't think that you can make better decisions than public health experts, wear a mask, keep at least 6 feet distance, avoid prolonged time in indoor environments, and protect your community members who may be forced to work in risky environments or who may be more susceptible to becoming critically ill from infection.

RetiredAt63

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #362 on: May 29, 2020, 10:14:34 AM »
Thanks Dr Kidstache.  I'm wearing (and reusing, unfortunately)  an N95 mask when I shop because a cloth mask will protect others from me, but won't protect me from them.  My grocery store is really good about distancing, my Lowes not so much.

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #363 on: May 29, 2020, 11:08:56 AM »
Everyone has to do his/her own cost/benefit analysis. If the people around me are that worried they can wear a mask and gloves, or not go outside, or do what they like. Only about 10-15% of the people around me are wearing a mask, so I guess that's the great thing about having individual choice. Pushing the "masks are imperative" narrative is just as misleading.

Masks are much more effective at keeping contagion IN than keeping contagion OUT.  If everybody were to wear a mask when out and about, the time needed to quarantine and to wear masks at all would be shorter.   Well, Australia is happily isolated and I don't know what your covid numbers are like, so it may not be so much of an issue where you are. 

Sure is in NY, though. We're basically back to where we were when the quarantine started, and fools are running around without masks and complaining about any measures being taken to slow the reopening.  Why, if these numbers were scary enough to start a quarantine back in March, are they not so scary now, thousands of deaths later?
These 2 statements.  I don't understand how people JUST don't GET it.  "If you want to wear a mask to be safe."

NOOOOO.  YOU WEAR A MASK TO PROTECT ME.  I WEAR A MASK TO PROTECT YOU. DUH.

The only "cost/benefit" analysis that anyone should be doing should be with respect to COVID-19 cases in your own little area.  (Assuming that you don't have requirements to wear one.)

We are required to wear a mask in stores or restaurants or while waiting to enter either.  So that's what we do.  We have face coverings ready for if we are out walking/ running and have to pass someone closely.

If I were in NYC I'd 100% be wearing a mask.  Locally, while walking, not so much because we can social distance AND we have low rates of infection.  BUT I STILL HAVE IT READY.

kanga1622

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #364 on: May 29, 2020, 12:15:27 PM »
I have a pair of close friends who are completely anti-mask and anti-quarantine. Every single day they make facebook posts about how their freedoms are being infringed upon and the husband even posted the other day bragging about going to the grocery store without a mask on. He works at Target and has been working through the whole pandemic, so he is exposed every single day and he can't seem to understand that he is exposing others by going around without a mask on. He says if you are scared you can wear a mask but he won't be doing it. (Although he does wear one at work since he is required to. He just complains about it).

Then last week they decided to take a road trip from Denver to Mount Rushmore. They honestly don't see anything wrong with what they did. They ate every meal in restaurants and stayed in hotels. They made a million facebook posts during the trip and kept commenting on how nice it was to be in states that didn't require masks and how great it was to sit down in a restaurant to eat and to not see a mask in sight. Apparently WY, NE, and SD didn't have the same quarantine rules as CO. I just hope they didn't leave a path of infection behind them. There is a reason why the "safer at home" orders in CO say that you shouldn't travel more than 10 miles from your home or leave your county.

This is EXACTLY why our trip to the Black Hills was cancelled this summer. We wear masks to protect others more than ourselves. But I don’t want to put up with people who only care more about themselves than those they might make ill.

Body Surfer

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #365 on: May 29, 2020, 01:12:35 PM »
This is all Pelosi's fault lol

Bloop Bloop

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #366 on: May 29, 2020, 06:18:52 PM »
Everyone has to do his/her own cost/benefit analysis. If the people around me are that worried they can wear a mask and gloves, or not go outside, or do what they like. Only about 10-15% of the people around me are wearing a mask, so I guess that's the great thing about having individual choice. Pushing the "masks are imperative" narrative is just as misleading.

Sure is in NY, though. We're basically back to where we were when the quarantine started, and fools are running around without masks and complaining about any measures being taken to slow the reopening.  Why, if these numbers were scary enough to start a quarantine back in March, are they not so scary now, thousands of deaths later?
Bloop Bloop has consistently demonstrated an inability to understand that sometimes things you do have a chance of negatively affecting those around you, and that if everyone does those things it becomes a certainty. This is a blindness that afflicts libertarian-minded people sometimes, and I'm afraid there's no configuration of words you can put in an internet comment that can pull back the wool over the eyes.

The only thing I have consistently demonstrated is the ability to think critically and not lap up doomsayers' prognostications.

If I was in NYC I'd probably wear a mask. Living as I do in Australia, where the community transmission cases per day is <5 for the whole country (all other cases are relatives of known carriers, or quarantined overseas travellers undergoing checks), the chance is infinitesimally small. The government only recommends that front-line workers wear a mask. So no, I will not wear a mask. Nor do I go around everyday wearing a hi-vis jacket, even though I am sure that doing so would make me less likely to be involved in a pedestrian versus car accident (That said, if I was riding a bike, I'd wear such a jacket for sure.)

As for me not wearing a mask contributing to the risk of transmission, the risk is so infinitesimally small (because of our tiny numbers) that I don't feel it is rational or ethically justifiable that I and the vast majority of the population in the "normal risk" category be subjected to wearing a mask.

Note that none of our leaders is wearing a mask either in everyday situations so I'd say I have the utilitarian calculus right.



js82

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #367 on: May 29, 2020, 08:47:18 PM »
NOOOOO.  YOU WEAR A MASK TO PROTECT ME.  I WEAR A MASK TO PROTECT YOU. DUH.

The only "cost/benefit" analysis that anyone should be doing should be with respect to COVID-19 cases in your own little area.  (Assuming that you don't have requirements to wear one.)

We are required to wear a mask in stores or restaurants or while waiting to enter either.  So that's what we do.  We have face coverings ready for if we are out walking/ running and have to pass someone closely.

If I were in NYC I'd 100% be wearing a mask.  Locally, while walking, not so much because we can social distance AND we have low rates of infection.  BUT I STILL HAVE IT READY.

Yep.  I don't wear a mask when outside walking/cycling when I can put plenty of distance between myself and others(and am unlikely to be in the presence of the same person for more than a few seconds).  I wear a mask when I'm inside/there's a potential for greater exposure.

The cost of wearing a mask is minimal - a few dollars and minor annoyance, and the benefit on the population level is decidedly non-negligible, so I can't justify not wearing a mask in cases where there is a risk of transmission - i.e. when I'm going anywhere indoors.

The only thing that would be likely to change this calculus for me would be if I lived in an area where the infection rate was essentially nil(for example, Australia, or a rural region of the US essentially untouched by the virus).

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #368 on: June 07, 2020, 07:13:52 PM »
Those claiming there would be a massive surge as we reopen, I just hope they will admit they were wrong if/when that doesn't happen.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-spike-coronavirus-places-reopening-132442853.html

And we are now about a month into reopening things, lowest death total in over 2 months.  People sure have gotten quiet about the surge we were going to get when reopening.  I'm not getting my hopes up that they will admit they were wrong.


And here we are 8 weeks post reopening, lowest death total since March 26th.  No nationwide spikes despite mass reopening and mass protest.  Sure, there have been regional spikes, but not nationwide.  In fact, numbers continue to drop.  I don't expect the people who claimed things will spike will comment on this.


AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #369 on: June 07, 2020, 07:16:03 PM »
Those claiming there would be a massive surge as we reopen, I just hope they will admit they were wrong if/when that doesn't happen.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-spike-coronavirus-places-reopening-132442853.html

And we are now about a month into reopening things, lowest death total in over 2 months.  People sure have gotten quiet about the surge we were going to get when reopening.  I'm not getting my hopes up that they will admit they were wrong.


And here we are 8 weeks post reopening, lowest death total since March 26th.  No nationwide spikes despite mass reopening and mass protest.  Sure, there have been regional spikes, but not nationwide.  In fact, numbers continue to drop.  I don't expect the people who claimed things will spike will comment on this.



Your case rate is just starting to climb. Happy?

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #370 on: June 07, 2020, 07:18:20 PM »


Your case rate is just starting to climb. Happy?

Testing rates continue to climb.  Case rate is proportional to testing rate.  The data to watch is hospitalization rate and death rate.

Cases are actually slowly declining with slight plateau despite increased testing.

« Last Edit: June 07, 2020, 07:19:56 PM by HBFIRE »

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #371 on: June 07, 2020, 07:25:00 PM »


Your case rate is just starting to climb. Happy?

Testing rates continue to climb.  Case rate is proportional to testing rate.  The data to watch is hospitalization rate and death rate.

People get symptoms, they get tested, they get really sick, they're hospitalised and they die. That process from beginning to end takes months. MONTHS. So if you're only watching death rates, you're effectively seeing a snapshot of what things were like 1-3 months ago. Any changes will take that long to come through. I don't really know why you're having an issue here. There is a highly transmissable virus loose, with no treatment and no cure. Avoiding interaction is the only way of preventing it. Opening up interaction will increase the incidence of infection. It's simple cause and effect, and one that has been demonstrated over thousands of years. This is not rocket science. It's like a ball falling off the table and hitting the floor. Cause and effect. You seem quite keen on trying to prove the ball won't hit the floor. You're just incorrect. It's that simple.

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #372 on: June 07, 2020, 07:26:38 PM »


Your case rate is just starting to climb. Happy?

Testing rates continue to climb.  Case rate is proportional to testing rate.  The data to watch is hospitalization rate and death rate.

People get symptoms, they get tested, they get really sick, they're hospitalised and they die. That process from beginning to end takes months. MONTHS. So if you're only watching death rates, you're effectively seeing a snapshot of what things were like 1-3 months ago. Any changes will take that long to come through. I don't really know why you're having an issue here. There is a highly transmissable virus loose, with no treatment and no cure. Avoiding interaction is the only way of preventing it. Opening up interaction will increase the incidence of infection. It's simple cause and effect, and one that has been demonstrated over thousands of years. This is not rocket science. It's like a ball falling off the table and hitting the floor. Cause and effect. You seem quite keen on trying to prove the ball won't hit the floor. You're just incorrect. It's that simple.

You claimed nearly 2 months ago we should wait and see and that there would be a massive spike.  There hasn't been.  Now you're claiming to keep waiting even longer.  I'll revisit here in a few weeks to report lower numbers.

scottish

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #373 on: June 07, 2020, 08:19:06 PM »
Hey, anyone know what's up with the weekly cycle in death rates?  (i.e. every 7 days there's a new low, and then rates go back up a bit...)

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #374 on: June 07, 2020, 08:22:29 PM »
Hey, anyone know what's up with the weekly cycle in death rates?  (i.e. every 7 days there's a new low, and then rates go back up a bit...)

yes it has to do with when numbers are reported

oldladystache

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #375 on: June 07, 2020, 08:26:15 PM »
The people who report the numbers take the weekend off.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #376 on: June 07, 2020, 08:30:25 PM »
There's not going to be a second wave in the States, or UK, or Australia. That ship has sailed. We are crunching the pandemic and even these protests and the re-opening of most parts of these countries has not led to an increase in deaths. The pandemic is old news now, and we have broken the back of it.

Wrenchturner

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #377 on: June 07, 2020, 08:44:02 PM »
There's not going to be a second wave in the States, or UK, or Australia. That ship has sailed. We are crunching the pandemic and even these protests and the re-opening of most parts of these countries has not led to an increase in deaths. The pandemic is old news now, and we have broken the back of it.

I think international travel will be a large factor going forward.

SisterX

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #378 on: June 07, 2020, 08:47:28 PM »
There's not going to be a second wave in the States, or UK, or Australia. That ship has sailed. We are crunching the pandemic and even these protests and the re-opening of most parts of these countries has not led to an increase in deaths. The pandemic is old news now, and we have broken the back of it.

Please stop with this dangerous misinformation bullshit. Florida has now seen over 1000 new cases every day for the last 5 days. North Carolina has been determined to beat their personal best and keeps setting new records, over 1,100 each day for more than three days. Cases in the U.S. as a whole have been rising slowly but steadily since Memorial day. And that's with places such as NY finally getting control of it!

Stop spreading disinformation. It's not wanted here. This is not a hoax, it's not a joke. People's lives are at stake. To downplay that is despicable. It's also out of line with what every reputable epidemiologist in the world is saying.

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #379 on: June 07, 2020, 09:19:28 PM »


Please stop with this dangerous misinformation bullshit. Florida has now seen over 1000 new cases every day for the last 5 days. North Carolina has been determined to beat their personal best and keeps setting new records, over 1,100 each day for more than three days.

Again, confirmed cases are proportional to testing.  Why people continue to use it as an indicator is bewildering.   In both states, testing continues to ramp up.  Here is the data that matters.  People are tired of embellishment and fear mongering.

FL death curve: 

NC death curve:

Cases in the U.S. as a whole have been rising slowly but steadily since Memorial day

This is easy to dispute.

« Last Edit: June 07, 2020, 09:34:40 PM by HBFIRE »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #380 on: June 07, 2020, 09:56:37 PM »
There's not going to be a second wave in the States, or UK, or Australia. That ship has sailed. We are crunching the pandemic and even these protests and the re-opening of most parts of these countries has not led to an increase in deaths. The pandemic is old news now, and we have broken the back of it.

Please stop with this dangerous misinformation bullshit. Florida has now seen over 1000 new cases every day for the last 5 days. North Carolina has been determined to beat their personal best and keeps setting new records, over 1,100 each day for more than three days. Cases in the U.S. as a whole have been rising slowly but steadily since Memorial day. And that's with places such as NY finally getting control of it!

Stop spreading disinformation. It's not wanted here. This is not a hoax, it's not a joke. People's lives are at stake. To downplay that is despicable. It's also out of line with what every reputable epidemiologist in the world is saying.

It's not disinformation. The case increases are due to massively increased testing. As I said, there hasn't been any increase in deaths. Ergo, we are getting on top of the pandemic. The fact that we are getting on top of the pandemic does not mean there are not still localised clusters. That fact is so obvious that I didn't feel like it was necessary for me to point it out. The fact that we are getting on top of the virus also doesn't mean that people's lives aren't at stake or that all precautions should be thrown out the window. We have gotten on top of rabies but people still die of rabies, occasionally, and it's still a deadly disease. You are imputing into my statement things I never said, due to your own inability to comprehend natural language.

Many "reputable epidemiologists" are quite happy with our current state of opening up. E.g., New Zealand just announced that from Monday they will be going down to stage 1 restrictions with almost everything open. Australia is rapidly opening up. Many parts of the States are happily opening up.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #381 on: June 07, 2020, 09:58:32 PM »
Thank you HBFIRE for injecting some sensible statistics into the thread.

People naturally have a pessimism bias - most responsible people will plan for the worst-case outcome. So it was with the pandemic. But things are rarely as bad, or as good, as they seem at first blush.

Gremlin

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #382 on: June 07, 2020, 10:15:12 PM »
When you are looking at bold assertions and predictions, it's useful to understand how good the individual's track record is on this topic.

My train of thought is also shared by Sweden, and we'll see how it all fares in the wash up. Yes, Sweden has had more deaths but I suspect they will also have a lot less economic damage.
Kudos to Sweden for taking a balanced approach which looks at the long-term viability of suppression plus the interests of the rest of the population (jobs, economy, etc).
I still favour Sweden's approach. Yes, people have died, but its economy has stayed stable.
But less economic damage.

In a few years when all is done and dusted and people can look at this in the cold light of rationality (rather than through the lens of fear), we can assess the final death toll and economic toll, do some QALY calculations and see which approach was the preferable one.
Time will tell, Marty. Let's wait for the GDP and unemployment figures in 3, 6 and 12 months' time. At least Sweden has had the guts to be the "control" group for the rest of the world.
Sweden's top scientist admits their open wide strategy might have been sub-optimal.

Oh well, at least it was worth a go - I would concur with the view that maybe an in-between approach - harsher than Sweden but looser than New Zealand - would have been optimal. But hindsight is 20/20, and anyway in the coming months and years when we get all the death / casualty figures and the economic figures we can analyse it all and use it to better respond to the next pandemic.
So not the right strategy after all.


Since Australia's stage 2 and stage 3 restrictions have resulted in fewer deaths per capita than New Zealand's stage 4 restrictions, then we've not only saved lives but also livelihoods. Your country went in too hard, too early.
Well, NZ ... locked down harder than us, and so will, I assume, have a bigger economic bill per capita than us
Nope.  NZ have both eradicated and set themselves up for a return to economic growth faster than pretty much any other Western nation on earth.


Every country has managed to flatten the curve, with or without harsh lockdown measures.
Nope.  Not even close.  Daily cases worldwide are now 30% higher than when this statement was made and continue to climb.


Give those developing countries 1-2 more weeks and their curve will have peaked too just like everyone else's.
Nope.  None of the countries that were pointed out have flattened their curve.  In fact, all continue to set new high marks for cases every few days.


There's not going to be a second wave in the States, or UK, or Australia. That ship has sailed. We are crunching the pandemic and even these protests and the re-opening of most parts of these countries has not led to an increase in deaths. The pandemic is old news now, and we have broken the back of it.

In the words of Jim Rohn, "Accuracy builds credibility".

Bloop Bloop

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #383 on: June 07, 2020, 11:12:14 PM »
It's death numbers that matter, Gremlin, not case numbers. The reasoning has been made very clear to you in the previous posts.

As for my comments re Sweden and NZ, (1) I am right in saying that we won't know the economic versus human life toll for some time, since the figures aren't yet available and (2) as soon as Sweden's top scientist said that their approach was wrong, I pointed that out, in fact I was the first in the thread to do so.

It's easy to cherry pick posts. I could cherry pick a shit ton of posts from earlier on with people saying that an easing of lockdowns would lead to disastrous consequences - which have never arisen; it's just business as usual.

I am quite happy to admit where I got my calls wrong, because the only thing I want is a good QALY/triage-based outcome to this whole crisis. Meanwhile, others who have been warning of a "second wave" are yet to admit that the predictions never came to pass. I made a $100 bet with another forumite here that the U.S. wouldn't top 1m deaths in 18 months. So far you'd need what, another 880,000 deaths for me to have been wrong?

lemanfan

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #384 on: June 08, 2020, 11:29:32 AM »

As for my comments re Sweden and NZ, (1) I am right in saying that we won't know the economic versus human life toll for some time, since the figures aren't yet available and (2) as soon as Sweden's top scientist said that their approach was wrong, I pointed that out, in fact I was the first in the thread to do so.


As for the bolded part, can you direct me to what you read more exactly?  Since I'm Swedish, I've read and listen to much of the statements from Mr Anders Tegnell (who is the person I assume you're referring to) but I don't think he's yet said "we were wrong" that frankly.

From what I have seen, there has been two related statements, the first about that we failed our old people - most of deaths in the 80+ age group happened in the elderly care system which did not take enough measures according to most.

The other statement I saw was more recent and there he said that "If we encountered the same disease, knowing what we know today, I think we would end up doing something in the middle between what Sweden did, and what the rest of the world did."

(source of the latter: https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7487415   Sveriges Radio is sort of the Swedish NPR)

I read the tone in the latter (and in the more extensive Swedish reporting of the same interview) as a bit different from "we were wrong".  I may however have missed somethings.  I don't watch all the news all the time.  :)

Edit:  And just a day or two later he said "We still consider our strategy good".

( Source: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/tegnell-sjalvkritisk-mer-atgarder-hade-behovts  + my translation)
« Last Edit: June 08, 2020, 11:31:46 AM by lemanfan »

dougules

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #385 on: June 08, 2020, 12:06:47 PM »
There's not going to be a second wave in the States, or UK, or Australia. That ship has sailed. We are crunching the pandemic and even these protests and the re-opening of most parts of these countries has not led to an increase in deaths. The pandemic is old news now, and we have broken the back of it.

Please stop with this dangerous misinformation bullshit. Florida has now seen over 1000 new cases every day for the last 5 days. North Carolina has been determined to beat their personal best and keeps setting new records, over 1,100 each day for more than three days. Cases in the U.S. as a whole have been rising slowly but steadily since Memorial day. And that's with places such as NY finally getting control of it!

Stop spreading disinformation. It's not wanted here. This is not a hoax, it's not a joke. People's lives are at stake. To downplay that is despicable. It's also out of line with what every reputable epidemiologist in the world is saying.

It's not disinformation. The case increases are due to massively increased testing. As I said, there hasn't been any increase in deaths. Ergo, we are getting on top of the pandemic. The fact that we are getting on top of the pandemic does not mean there are not still localised clusters. That fact is so obvious that I didn't feel like it was necessary for me to point it out. The fact that we are getting on top of the virus also doesn't mean that people's lives aren't at stake or that all precautions should be thrown out the window. We have gotten on top of rabies but people still die of rabies, occasionally, and it's still a deadly disease. You are imputing into my statement things I never said, due to your own inability to comprehend natural language.

Many "reputable epidemiologists" are quite happy with our current state of opening up. E.g., New Zealand just announced that from Monday they will be going down to stage 1 restrictions with almost everything open. Australia is rapidly opening up. Many parts of the States are happily opening up.

The situation in Australia and NZ is very different from what's happening in the US.  Australia and NZ managed to stem the virus early in its trajectory, and so there are very few cases there now.  You could probably say that Australia and NZ are on top of the pandemic and in a good state to go back to mostly normal. 

The US is in a completely different spot.  New infections are declining a little overall, but there are still quite a lot of new cases every day.  To say that the US is on top of the pandemic is extremely premature at best. For one thing, it's summer up here.  It's possible it's seasonal, and if so that could have bad implications for October.  People are also still observing social distancing to some extent.  A lot of people are working remotely, and schools are closed.  If the population as a whole starts to slowly get more lax, it could take off again very easily.   

@lemanfan To what extent are Swedes observing precautions voluntarily?  That may be a big factor. 

HPstache

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #386 on: June 08, 2020, 12:10:40 PM »
There's not going to be a second wave in the States, or UK, or Australia. That ship has sailed. We are crunching the pandemic and even these protests and the re-opening of most parts of these countries has not led to an increase in deaths. The pandemic is old news now, and we have broken the back of it.

Please stop with this dangerous misinformation bullshit. Florida has now seen over 1000 new cases every day for the last 5 days. North Carolina has been determined to beat their personal best and keeps setting new records, over 1,100 each day for more than three days. Cases in the U.S. as a whole have been rising slowly but steadily since Memorial day. And that's with places such as NY finally getting control of it!

Stop spreading disinformation. It's not wanted here. This is not a hoax, it's not a joke. People's lives are at stake. To downplay that is despicable. It's also out of line with what every reputable epidemiologist in the world is saying.

It's not disinformation. The case increases are due to massively increased testing. As I said, there hasn't been any increase in deaths. Ergo, we are getting on top of the pandemic. The fact that we are getting on top of the pandemic does not mean there are not still localised clusters. That fact is so obvious that I didn't feel like it was necessary for me to point it out. The fact that we are getting on top of the virus also doesn't mean that people's lives aren't at stake or that all precautions should be thrown out the window. We have gotten on top of rabies but people still die of rabies, occasionally, and it's still a deadly disease. You are imputing into my statement things I never said, due to your own inability to comprehend natural language.

Many "reputable epidemiologists" are quite happy with our current state of opening up. E.g., New Zealand just announced that from Monday they will be going down to stage 1 restrictions with almost everything open. Australia is rapidly opening up. Many parts of the States are happily opening up.

The situation in Australia and NZ is very different from what's happening in the US.  Australia and NZ managed to stem the virus early in its trajectory, and so there are very few cases there now.  You could probably say that Australia and NZ are on top of the pandemic and in a good state to go back to mostly normal. 

The US is in a completely different spot.  New infections are declining a little overall, but there are still quite a lot of new cases every day.  To say that the US is on top of the pandemic is extremely premature at best. For one thing, it's summer up here.  It's possible it's seasonal, and if so that could have bad implications for October.  People are also still observing social distancing to some extent.  A lot of people are working remotely, and schools are closed.  If the population as a whole starts to slowly get more lax, it could take off again very easily.   

@lemanfan To what extent are Swedes observing precautions voluntarily?  That may be a big factor.

Again... see above.  New infections are a direct result of the number of tests that are performed and this count has been increasing dramatically. It should be expected that the number of new cases every day should be increasing... but since they are level or decreasing even though the tests are increasing that is evidence that things are improving.  Death count a far more accurate (though delayed) picture of what is going on currently.

mm1970

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #387 on: June 08, 2020, 01:01:35 PM »
Quote
Again... see above.  New infections are a direct result of the number of tests that are performed and this count has been increasing dramatically. It should be expected that the number of new cases every day should be increasing... but since they are level or decreasing even though the tests are increasing that is evidence that things are improving.  Death count a far more accurate (though delayed) picture of what is going on currently.

Probably location dependent.  Our local infections are increasing, but without increased testing.  I have a spreadsheet.  % of positive cases going up, # of total test results about the same., for the last month anyway.

HBFIRE

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #388 on: June 08, 2020, 01:26:59 PM »
obably location dependent.  Our local infections are increasing, but without increased testing.  I have a spreadsheet.  % of positive cases going up, # of total test results about the same., for the last month anyway.


California?  Positive % has been pretty flat at ~ 5%. 



Cases have also been relatively flat the last couple of weeks.



« Last Edit: June 08, 2020, 01:42:57 PM by HBFIRE »

lemanfan

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #389 on: June 08, 2020, 02:05:38 PM »
@lemanfan To what extent are Swedes observing precautions voluntarily?  That may be a big factor.

It varies, of course.  But from what I see most people are.  The elderly (70+) especially so.  90% of my friends and colleagues are working from home.

The bigs risk that people talk about now are crows of young people (18-25-ish).  Up until a week ago the big fear was the high school graduation which is this week (grade 12) where the kids want to party - and do party. This however is mostly limited to 100 or 200 at a time.  Since last week we have also seen crowds of thousands protesting and rioting in an american spirit in the big cities...  During the Valpurgis celebrations (last of April), my city and several other spread chicken manure in the parks where the teenagers normally party to stop them.  It didn't stop them but it moved them and then the rain made them go home :)

So drunk kids and political protests aside, people are to a large extent following the recommendations, from what I can see.

The next challenge starts soon, when people will probably migrate to rural areas for vacation. They can usually be more isolated there, but the hospital capacity in these areas is also very very limited. The official recommendation to avoid internal travel was lifted last week, but we're still obliged to socially distance and wash our hands. 

Very few, perhaps 1 in 500 that I see wear a mask.  Masks are not mandated, not even recommended for non-care workers.

mm1970

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #390 on: June 08, 2020, 02:42:12 PM »
Quote
California?  Positive % has been pretty flat at ~ 5%.

Yes, but I am speaking specifically of my county in California, not California as a whole.  It's a big state.  I worry less about all of California and more about our county + Los Angeles county.

Los Angeles % positive rate fluctuating around 8%.  However, that is still concerning:
1.  8% is high.  For opening up, we want < 8% (per state guidelines from somewhere)
2.  Recent % weekly positive rates have been 5%, but they are now creeping up closer to 10%, with decreased testing.
3.  This means total # of positive cases in LA is going up.
4.  Our county is opening up, so plenty of Angelenos are coming into town for vacation and weekend getaways.  This does not give me the warm fuzzies.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2020, 02:44:06 PM by mm1970 »

dougules

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #391 on: June 08, 2020, 03:36:56 PM »
Yes, it's very location dependent.  The overall decline comes from the improving situation in NY and NJ since they have been dominating the numbers.  Even in the places in the US where there has been an unmistakable improvement things are not under control.  It's still spreading, and it wouldn't take much for the situation to deteriorate.    It's not like the countries that have fought it back to just an occasional case here and there. 

geekette

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #392 on: June 08, 2020, 05:44:25 PM »
From our local news:  North Carolina recorded the highest one-day increase in cases over the weekend with 1,370, contributing to a total during the pandemic of nearly 36,500 as of Monday morning. North Carolina exceeded 1,000 virus-related deaths on Monday and had 740 patients currently hosptialized — also a new record.

While the number of completed tests has continued to grow robustly to more than 520,000 overall, state Health and Human Services Secretary Mandy Cohen said North Carolina now ranks among the states with the highest percentage of positive cases.

So of course the some in the state legislature want to have a packed convention in the state, with no masks or distancing required.

talltexan

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #393 on: June 09, 2020, 09:00:09 AM »
It sounds as though you're referring to the RNC convention planned this August in the state. It's one of those difficult tradeoffs, where the economic impact of bringing these people into the region is substantial, but the risk in virus spread associated with that is also substantial.

If only we had a nominee who had spent some time building credibility by making only true statements regarding the virus and the ways of mitigating it.

SisterX

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #394 on: June 09, 2020, 11:30:38 AM »
Look at that, an "alarming" rise in cases in Arizona since reopening. From the article, "Arizona has seen a rise in COVID-19 case totals and hospitalizations recently, trends Humble considers alarming. The state reported Monday that 79% of inpatient beds and 77% of ICU beds were filled, leaving 1,506 inpatient beds and 363 ICU beds open. ...Flanagan said there are signs that community spread of COVID-19 in metro Phoenix is growing beyond what was expected because of the state’s reopening plan."

Hospitalizations rise well before deaths. This is not dependent upon testing. And the person quoted, a former health director for the state, thinks they're headed for "field hospitals and/or another stay-at-home order".

Gee, I wonder which would be better? Field hospitals, or just asking people to stay home whenever possible?

jim555

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #395 on: June 09, 2020, 12:50:43 PM »
Here on Long Island, NY the cases have dropped to almost nothing and we are re-opening "phase 2" tomorrow.  People have to act properly if they want the numbers to come down.  Masks, distancing, washing, awareness is what works. 

mm1970

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #396 on: June 09, 2020, 04:40:45 PM »
Here on Long Island, NY the cases have dropped to almost nothing and we are re-opening "phase 2" tomorrow.  People have to act properly if they want the numbers to come down.  Masks, distancing, washing, awareness is what works.
But but, MUH FREEDOM.

We are moving on to partial phase 3.  So, gyms and bars but not nail salons or places that do facials, etc.  So many fucking people commenting about how people wearing masks are sheep, and stupid, and if you are worried stay home.  Uh, do you not realize that the whole point is to protect each other?  The elderly, the sick, the immuno-compromised.  That's the actual point.  Like wearing a mask will kill you.  "But it's 90 degrees today, let's see how the mask wearers stick to it." 

Look sweetie, use some critical thinking and common sense.  What we've learned over the last few months is that indoors, and airborne = much more risky than outdoors, and surface-borne.  So, wash your hands.  If you are indoors with people, wear a mask.  If you are outdoors, keep a buff or fabric around your neck, to use if you are forced to pass someone within 6'.  When outdoors, keep your distance.  It's like these people are stupid.  Or incapable of nuance, or understanding statistics and risk reduction.

SisterX

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #397 on: June 09, 2020, 05:15:39 PM »
Here's another one: Texas reporting their highest single day number of hospitalizations yet.

From the article: "Texas Department of State Health Services figures show 1,935 people were admitted as hospital patients for coronavirus-related treatment. That is up from a previous record of 1,888 on May 5.

"The department's new figures were released as Gov. Greg Abbott moves forward with a plan to open bars, restaurants, amusement parks and other businesses to 50% capacity."

Texas was also the first state (or among the first states?) to open up, so they're going to be the leading edge on this one. The fact that both their cases and their hospitalizations are going up shows that it's not just testing capacity changing things around. Expect their death rate to start ticking up again also.

Later in the article: "But even in states where officials left stringent restrictions in place, the number of newly diagnosed cases are rising. ...The pattern holds true worldwide. On Monday, the World Health Organization warned that the outbreak is worsening around the globe. The U.N. body said the world had recorded its highest daily jump of cases — 136,000. And the United States and Brazil continue to report the highest number of new cases on a daily basis with roughly 20,000 each."

I'm still not able to visit my mom in person.

MrsCoolCat

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #398 on: June 10, 2020, 12:34:11 AM »
Following. I'm just glad my DH went back to work in the office, my gym reopened at 50% capacity and my 2 yr old and 3.5 yr old and I are back to visiting my parents 2.2 miles away for help. That was the hardest, being stuck at home with 2 under 4 and a DH WFH that slacked off like a 16 yr old with the stupidest gamer habit and sleep schedule when it was just the 4 of us. Getting back in the office made him spend his time more efficiently than when he was staying home. I, in a way have, too. I get plenty of social interaction through social media, texts and my family. The kids surprisingly haven't really asked about going out I guess b/c they're so close in age. We are good. I did mourn the loss of cruises in terms of traveling. It will be a while before that happens again.


It’s really starting to sink in that quarantine and social distancing measures are going to last months into years.  Until there are treatments and a vaccine, life is going to be different.  We FIREd and moved a year ago and are generally very happy with our new circumstances.  But, I really can’t foresee going into a restaurant anytime soon, traveling, getting on a plane, or having friends over for dinner.  I’m doing okay and fully realize we have it better than many.  But, we’ve had to cancel two trips — something we were relishing in retirement.  On the upside, we’re not spending much money.  We’re planting a huge garden, which gets us outside and doing something that reaps dividends.  I had one volunteer gig I really enjoyed and really miss.  It will be a long time before we can go back.  I’m on a couple of committees at my church but am sick of Zoom meetings.  Lol.  The problem is, we’re all stuck at home so don’t have excuses.  I think I may just have to refuse meetings for a couple of weeks.  Seriously.  I think boundaries are crucial right now.

We were supposed to be on a much-anticipated trip to Europe now right now.  Now I’m just hope that we’ll be able to do it in the not too distant future.

But it’s sinking in that life is going to be altered for awhile.  How are others shifting gears and also engaging in new, meaningful activities?

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Re: This quarantine shit’s getting real
« Reply #399 on: June 10, 2020, 12:23:58 PM »
Personally I'm still nervous about returning to business as usual.  I know everyone's gotten bored with quarantining and they've decided they've had enough, they deserve a summer break, etc... What happened to shared sacrifice?

No authoritative, scientific organization has announced an end to the pandemic, so I'll still staying put as long as possible.  Yes, I miss being out there, going on vacations, visiting my mom, etc... but you gotta do what you can to stay healthy and keep others healthy.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!