Poll

If you are single (can use hypothetical if you are not single) what is your expected FIRE number for a single person (include up to 200k in home equity)?

400k or less
401k to 500k
501k to 600k
600k to 700k
701k or more

Author Topic: Single FIRE number  (Read 8373 times)

TempusFugit

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Re: Single FIRE number
« Reply #50 on: August 18, 2018, 01:01:46 PM »
I don't know why I'm still surprised to see so many Spendy McSpendypants-es here...

According to your profile you live in Vancouver, BC. According to numbeo the average cost for renting a one beadroom apartment close-in in Vancouver is $1,450.23 US per month. Retiring on $750K US in Vancouver seems down right frugal to me. I don't know what I'm missing?

You're missing two things:

1. Mustachians aren't supposed to be average. Paying average prices is for suckers. We're supposed to find deals and do weird things.
2. A single person does not need a large, fancy, private apartment near the downtown core. And especially not if it costs that much!

You are welcome to live your life however you want. When ... retired he had a paid off house to live in. That is way different than someone that has to pay rent for the rest of their life.

That's kind of crappy of you to put his name in that post.  The second sentence in your linked article is "Pete, who doesn’t use his last name in the media..."  Doesn't that sort of tell you his wishes on that subject?   Hopefully you meant no harm by it, but it comes of a bit passive aggressive. Like you've got some beef with the guy. 

PDXTabs

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Re: Single FIRE number
« Reply #51 on: August 18, 2018, 01:10:26 PM »
That's kind of crappy of you to put his name in that post.  The second sentence in your linked article is "Pete, who doesn’t use his last name in the media..."  Doesn't that sort of tell you his wishes on that subject?   Hopefully you meant no harm by it, but it comes of a bit passive aggressive. Like you've got some beef with the guy.

EDIT: @TempusFugit,

He went public less than 12 months later in this New Yorker article, AFAIK. It's a good read, it's actually how I found MMM.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2018, 01:25:44 PM by PDXTabs »

gerardc

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Re: Single FIRE number
« Reply #52 on: August 18, 2018, 11:25:39 PM »
Around $1-1.5M for me, NO HOUSE (perpetual renter).

I noticed most people who aim for $500k or less, do so at the start of their journey just after discovering MMM, and this gives them hope that if worse comes to shove, they can always bail in a few short years, but actually a few years later they wake up and realize $700k-$1M is a little more realistic, especially if they can achieve it relatively quickly. I was one of those!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Single FIRE number
« Reply #53 on: August 19, 2018, 05:04:45 AM »
Around $1-1.5M for me, NO HOUSE (perpetual renter).

I noticed most people who aim for $500k or less, do so at the start of their journey just after discovering MMM, and this gives them hope that if worse comes to shove, they can always bail in a few short years, but actually a few years later they wake up and realize $700k-$1M is a little more realistic, especially if they can achieve it relatively quickly. I was one of those!
I think I'm guilty too!

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DreamFIRE

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Re: Single FIRE number
« Reply #54 on: August 19, 2018, 10:59:32 AM »
Why not just ask about stash size, not net worth?  I won't be drawing down on my home to pay my expenses.  Home value is irrelevant for me.

I've already hit my target, which well in excess of the highest option available in this poll, which again, excludes my home.

Someone with $500K and a paid off house is completely different than someone with 500k and no home equity who either needs to pay a mortgage or rent.

Good for you.

Your poll question doesn't state to assume that someone has a paid off home, it says to include up to only $200K of it if you own one.  So based on the answers you get, you won't know if responders have to pay rent or not and whether they even own a home.

When you are figuring your target number, it's typical to take the 4% (SWR) by multiplying it by your invested stash, since that's the money you draw down on, and is where the 4% figure came from.  If you include $200K worth of home equity in that figure, your stash is more likely to fail to provide that.  You should exclude your home equity in that calculation, although if you were planning to downsize significantly by selling a very expensive home to relocate to LCOL, then you could make a good case for including the estimated increase in your stash through that transaction since that difference would then be part of your stash.

« Last Edit: August 19, 2018, 11:01:41 AM by DreamFIRE »

EnjoyIt

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Re: Single FIRE number
« Reply #55 on: August 19, 2018, 11:07:45 AM »
I don't know why I'm still surprised to see so many Spendy McSpendypants-es here...

Me too.  Most of the responders expected withrawal rate is more than the entire mmm family of 3.  If you retire with a 30k-40k spend rate it's not because you are mustacian, you just made a lot of money.  It's fine, but I wouldn't see much value in the blog if I were looking to live that type of lifestyle.  My spending while working is only $30k a year and that includes $7k mortgage, $4k student loans, $5k property taxes.  None of which will apply in retirement.

First let me be clear that I take zero offense at the comments. It is a legitimate point.

I think you have to consider that MMM has received a great deal of exposure in the past couple of years and many of us newbies are more (just a little) representative of the larger population than the core frugal community that constituted the community before.   Thats kind of a guess based on my personal experience.  My introduction to MMM last year was through a podcast whose core audience is most certainly not the same as MMM forums.  In a Venn diagram of the 2 audiences, i suspect only a little overlap. 

For the most part I think that there is plenty of room for people who may be on the less-frugal side of the spectrum. I dont think it is extreme, since i think the vast majority of us are still waaaay more fiscally responsible than joe q public, and we benefit from the reminders and examples we encounter here. 

MMM and his ilk have opened our eyes to possibilities that many of us werent really aware of because the culture puts blinders on us ( to match our work harness).  Getting that splash of cool water that shakes us out of it is a great thing, even if we focus more on how to leverage the investment math to reduce our time in service by 5 or 10 years rather than by 20 or 30. 

To further speculate, i think perhaps many others are like me in that bulding up the stash to ever larger levels is also a way to delay (yes) having to actually make the decision to retire and face the uncertain future. What would I do with my life?  How would i spend my days?  Especially as singletons as in this thread, perhaps it is more of a concern without spouse and children to share that time.   Once I actaully hit my FI number, I will have some soul searching to do.  Having a bigger stash target delays that decision.

Right on.  We were natural savers and investors before MMM.  What MMM did is open our eyes to the true value of money and how to spend wisely to purchase the most amount of happiness.  We are very fortunate to have worked hard in our younger years and have very profitable careers that afford us some luxuries while still having a >50% savings rate after taxes.  Our biggest expense is travel which takes up about 30-40% of our yearly budget. The next most expensive item is health insurance premiums and copays since we do not qualify for any subsidies.  3rd highest item is property tax, home owners insurance utilities and maintenance.  This last item is the only one we are considering changing as we live in a home that is just too much for us. We can afford it here but it is a waste.

TL;DR our stache is reasonably more than the 750k and our home is worth more than $200k.

gerardc

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Re: Single FIRE number
« Reply #56 on: August 19, 2018, 11:12:31 AM »
Why not just ask about stash size, not net worth?  I won't be drawing down on my home to pay my expenses.  Home value is irrelevant for me.

I've already hit my target, which well in excess of the highest option available in this poll, which again, excludes my home.

Someone with $500K and a paid off house is completely different than someone with 500k and no home equity who either needs to pay a mortgage or rent.

Good for you.

Your poll question doesn't state to assume that someone has a paid off home, it says to include up to only $200K of it if you own one.  So based on the answers you get, you won't know if responders have to pay rent or not and whether they even own a home.

When you are figuring your target number, it's typical to take the 4% (SWR) by multiplying it by your invested stash, since that's the money you draw down on, and is where the 4% figure came from.  If you include $200K worth of home equity in that figure, your stash is more likely to fail to provide that.  You should exclude your home equity in that calculation, although if you were planning to downsize significantly by selling a very expensive home to relocate to LCOL, then you could make a good case for including the estimated increase in your stash through that transaction since that difference would then be part of your stash.

I think the best, clearest way to state your situation (and also most comparable against other people who rent) is to include home equity as part of your net worth, but also impute a market value rent (in addition to property taxes) as part of your living expenses. This way, if you sell your house, you can use 4% of the proceed to rent or pay a new mortgage; if you decide to rent your house out, you'll get some return on an investment that is included in your net worth.

I think it's clearer and more realistic to impute rent/housing expenses for everyone. If you live in your own home, you still have an opportunity expense of not getting a return on your investment. Also, if you have a $200k home or a $800k home, it's a totally different situation because: (1) you'll get way different amounts of money to invest if you decide to sell or move to a different location, and (2) you're liviing more luxuriously so this should be factored in both your net worth and your expenses, for more fair comparison with renters.

wageslave23

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Re: Single FIRE number
« Reply #57 on: August 20, 2018, 07:25:33 AM »
Around $1-1.5M for me, NO HOUSE (perpetual renter).

I noticed most people who aim for $500k or less, do so at the start of their journey just after discovering MMM, and this gives them hope that if worse comes to shove, they can always bail in a few short years, but actually a few years later they wake up and realize $700k-$1M is a little more realistic, especially if they can achieve it relatively quickly. I was one of those!
I think I'm guilty too!

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

I would agree.  I'm planning on about 500k, but if when I get to that point I am working at a job that I kind of like I will probably keep working.  If I don't like my job, I will retire and test the FIRE waters.  Plus I don't look at FIRE like the decision to have kids - where once you pull the trigger you can never change your mind.  I look at it more like the decision to move to another country - if at any point you change your mind then just move back.

wageslave23

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Re: Single FIRE number
« Reply #58 on: August 20, 2018, 07:49:08 AM »
Why not just ask about stash size, not net worth?  I won't be drawing down on my home to pay my expenses.  Home value is irrelevant for me.

I've already hit my target, which well in excess of the highest option available in this poll, which again, excludes my home.

Someone with $500K and a paid off house is completely different than someone with 500k and no home equity who either needs to pay a mortgage or rent.

Good for you.

Your poll question doesn't state to assume that someone has a paid off home, it says to include up to only $200K of it if you own one.  So based on the answers you get, you won't know if responders have to pay rent or not and whether they even own a home.

When you are figuring your target number, it's typical to take the 4% (SWR) by multiplying it by your invested stash, since that's the money you draw down on, and is where the 4% figure came from.  If you include $200K worth of home equity in that figure, your stash is more likely to fail to provide that.  You should exclude your home equity in that calculation, although if you were planning to downsize significantly by selling a very expensive home to relocate to LCOL, then you could make a good case for including the estimated increase in your stash through that transaction since that difference would then be part of your stash.

Hopefully this explanation will settle this question once and for all.   If you are comparing renters to non-renters their "stash" will vary drastically because one has to pay rent.  If you want to be able to compare this apples to oranges situation, its very simple. 

All 3 scenarios live in the same size house on the same street (worth about 200k), with identical spending habits.

Scenario A: Renter
$1500 in monthly expenses excluding rent
$700 rent
Total stash needed: 2200x12x25= 660k

Scenario B: Home Owner
$1500 in monthly expenses
200k home equity
Total stash needed: 1500x12x25= 450k + 200k equity = 650K

Scenario C: Home Owner w/Mortgage
$1500 in monthly expenses excluding mortgage
$700 mortgage payment
Total stash needed: 2200x12x25= 660k

All three are living basically the same life with the same consumption levels, the only thing that is different is how they are paying for their housing.  So their net worth needed FIRE should be about the same.   Its only the same if you include home equity.  If you exclude home equity then it looks like its much easier to FIRE if you own your own home (only 450k stash compared to 660k) if this was the case everyone starting out would just buy a house but its not easier because you still need to come up with 200k to buy the house.  Or another way to look at is if person in Scenario A wanted to they could use 200k of their stash to buy a house and nothing about their situation would really change.  Vice versa for someone in scenario B. 

Obviously this is a simplified explanation and rents will not equal mortgage payments all the time or correspond with the 4% withdrawal rate of the fair market value of the home.  But in general I think this a pretty fair bench mark.   Also, some people choose to live in very expensive housing markets for personal reasons having nothing to do with FIRE.  This throws the calculations off and they could easily live someone else for less money, so the extra $500k in equity that they have is irrelevant to the discussion when comparing net worth to FIRE to the general population.  An analogy would be scenario D where this person has the exact same spending as the other three but has a rare chronic disease that costs 1000/mo in medication.  When comparing FIRE thresholds you would tell person in scenario D to ignore the 1000/mo medication for this discussion because it is not applicable to the others.

ender

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Re: Single FIRE number
« Reply #59 on: August 20, 2018, 07:51:16 AM »
Our married goal is $1M, so I guess that'd make my single goal $500k?


gerardc

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Re: Single FIRE number
« Reply #60 on: August 20, 2018, 05:41:13 PM »

+1, pretty much what I said above

We need to include paid off home in net worth and impute rent as an expense! This is the gold standard now, THE uncontested best way to account for things, no exception, no ifs or buts, end of story, thank you very much.

 

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