Author Topic: Robots and their impact on the future  (Read 537994 times)

boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1700 on: July 10, 2018, 08:11:02 AM »
yep there are jobs we just dont have the skills to fill the jobs currently and this will continue to increase over time as we drop menial labor jobs in favor of automation - like truck drivers what marketable skill do they have - or fry cooks - they could potentially move to more upscale restaurants and be cooks.  but as we automate jobs away and more skills are required to do the new jobs employers may be forced into doing more  training and bring in people with better soft skills/EQ that have an apptitude to learn. 

So whats the outcome of this- employers may start doing testing of potential employees to understand their apptitude for learning.  In the engineering world its not uncommon to test potential hires on the skill set but a basic apptitude or IQ or EQ test could be the new norm to obtain a job since the employer will be forced to commit extra resources to training.  It may also come with a pay back clause to keep you around or you forfeit some of the cost to train you.  similar to college reimbursement plans.

I can see things going this way, too, and I worry about the folks who fall "below the line" as that line continues to rise.  Since we value work not just for earning a living, but as part of identity and a measure of value to society, the folks who are shut out are going to have hard time.  Maybe defending against this is why so-called "bullshit jobs" are on the rise?

how old are you - the millenial generation does not identify and measure value based on their profession like the previous generations did.  Most of my generation identifies with the activities and things we enjoy doing in life not who gives us the money to allow us to do those things.  So while this may be more difficult for previous generations to grasp i believe the way the younger crowd is trending the job is part of my life identity wont be a hurdle.  the hurdle will be paying those that fall below that line a UBI.

I'm a Gen X'er, so I understand what you're saying -- though I think it's risky to over-generalize.  Boomers are going to be around a long time, and they vote.  I expect them to continue to see the world through the lens of their own values, and judge those who don't conform to their view of things.  That's a significant drag against something like UBI, gov't guaranteed jobs, or even subsidized re-training.

correct thats why i said the biggest hurdle will be UBI you can include other socialist issues as well.  but thats where the hurdle will lie

TempusFugit

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1701 on: July 11, 2018, 04:48:26 PM »
Agree with what you say but the basic IQ test has been effectively outlawed as a job requirement (Supreme Court case Griggs vs. Duke Power).   An unforeseen effect was that companies couldn't test so they took a college degree in lieu of an IQ test which led to many jobs requiring degrees which do not need one, leading to increased student debt, yada, yada, yada.   However, specific knowledge tests are still allowed which allows the engineering aptitude or other job specific tests

That's exactly correct, IMO.  This is why a good percentage of 'students' in college really have no business being there.  It isn't their fault, it's that companies use a college degree (in almost anything) as a proxy for an IQ test.  Now a degree is basically a 'job license'. 

There are lots of things that fall into the category of 'unintended consequences' and this would appear to be one. 

The elimination of lower wage jobs will be another as the fight for higher a minimum wage prices those humans out of the market. Not only are the employers motivated by cost reduction in terms of automation vs human beings, but as a society we are all becoming more and more comfortable with machine interaction over human interaction anyway, which boosts sales. 

I was surprised by the results of putting those ordering terminals on the tables at fast-casual restaurants, which showed an increase in sales.  Making the ordering of dessert, etc, an impulse decision eliminates the speed bump of waiting for the server to come by and also the potential social pressure of people who might benefit from skipping a dessert feeling embarrassed to do so.

TempusFugit

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1702 on: July 11, 2018, 05:10:44 PM »
Listened to a radiolab podcast the other day that was about the Turing test and how much closer we are today to having chatbots that can pass.

https://www.wnycstudios.org/story/more-or-less-human

In some of their conclusions about why we are so much closer now to being unable to differentiate machine from person, they speculated that our interaction with technology - our phones primarily: think autocomplete, etc - is making us think and communicate more like machines rather than it being purely a matter of the machines being more able to mimic us.  Our communication curve is bending downward (or machineward) just as the machines' is bending upward. 

I thought that was an interesting possible factor.  I also think that part of the issue is that in the modern world, when we are corresponding electronically with an actual real-world human being, there's a really good chance that that person is not a native English speaker, or are from a different cultural background, and therefore we have all had to start adapting to interactions with people who have issues with our natural language and communication.  We expect some difficulties and make allowances.

Idiomatic expressions, for example, are problematic in many workplaces due to this kind of barrier.  Regional slang or references to erstwhile common cultural touchpoints is also no longer effective.  I can't make Seinfeld references in my office and expect everyone to know what I'm talking about.  I can't reference something from US culture a decade ago, like a common toy or TV show, or even political events. So my communication style has definitely changed.  It is more plain now.  It lacks the old 'flavor' that would have made it more 'human' in some ways. 

I think that was an obvious point in the context of that discussion, but I'm also (perhaps cynically) pretty sure they didn't want to mention that for obvious reasons.

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1703 on: July 12, 2018, 03:20:22 PM »
Interesting take on the robot human interaction TempusFugit.

I see the changes in communication when you communicating to my children through text.  They think it is funny that I capitalize and put punctuation. 

Younger employees tend to communicate through IM vs. face to face even if I am sitting next to them. 

Robots are going to be able to blend in fine as we are mudding up our ways of communication.

swampwiz

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1704 on: July 12, 2018, 04:00:00 PM »
What is amazing is the butterfly effect of this unfortunate death.  This could change the entire ride share future.  Uber coukd lose market share to another company with better tech.  Self driving systems will most certainly be much better now, thry have no choice but to improve.  The death of that individual could cause improvements that will save thousands of lives in the future.

The death of a pedestrian has always been expected, so had this not happened, it would have happened someplace, sometime else.

tomsang

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maizefolk

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1706 on: July 13, 2018, 09:16:26 AM »
Definitely worth the read. Also I clearly went into the wrong field: "It was by far the largest fee I had ever been offered for a talk — about half my annual professor’s salary — all to deliver some insight on the subject of 'the future of technology.'"

Quote
They started out innocuously enough. Ethereum or bitcoin? Is quantum computing a real thing? Slowly but surely, however, they edged into their real topics of concern. Which region will be less impacted by the coming climate crisis: New Zealand or Alaska? Is Google really building Ray Kurzweil a home for his brain, and will his consciousness live through the transition, or will it die and be reborn as a whole new one? Finally, the CEO of a brokerage house explained that he had nearly completed building his own underground bunker system and asked, “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?” The Event. That was their euphemism for the environmental collapse, social unrest, nuclear explosion, unstoppable virus, or Mr. Robot hack that takes everything down. This single question occupied us for the rest of the hour.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1707 on: July 15, 2018, 08:26:31 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/11/survival-of-the-richest-the-wealthy-are-plotting-to-leave-us-behind.html

Interesting take on the future.
Very worthwhile read, though suffering (and benefiting) from taking a very particular point of view on the issue.

One argument against the mantra here (stop amassing wealth once you have enough to glide through retirement) is we don't know what new products and capabilities will be on offer in e.g. 40 years. If brain uploads/potential effective immortality (ignoring the the philosophical questions for now) are available then for $5M, should we save more now just in case?

Johnez

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1708 on: July 16, 2018, 02:39:08 AM »
Interesting article on AI and the human mind:

https://aeon.co/essays/are-humans-really-blind-to-the-gorilla-on-the-basketball-court

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Deciding what is relevant and meaningful, and what is not, are vital to intelligence and rationality. And relevance and meaning continue to be outside the realm of AI (as illustrated by the so-called frame problem). Computers can be programmed to recognise and attend to certain features of the world – which need to be clearly specified and programmed a priori. But they cannot be programmed to make new observations, to ask novel questions or to meaningfully adjust to changing circumstances. The human ability to ask new questions, to generate hypotheses, and to identify and find novelty is unique and not programmable. No statistical procedure allows one to somehow see a mundane, taken-for-granted observation in a radically different and new way. That’s where humans come in.

toganet

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1709 on: July 16, 2018, 09:09:10 AM »
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-organizations-and-work/ai-automation-and-the-future-of-work-ten-things-to-solve-for

Cool article with some forecasts of how automation will impact work between now and 2030, and some recommendations on what to solve for.  For the impatient, the 10 things are:

  • Ensuring robust economic and productivity growth.
  • Fostering business dynamism.
  • Evolving education systems and learning for a changed workplace.
  • Investing in human capital.
  • Improving labor-market dynamism.
  • Redesigning work.
  • Rethinking incomes.
  • Rethinking transition support and safety nets for workers affected.
  • Investing in drivers of demand for work.
  • Embracing AI and automation safely.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1710 on: July 17, 2018, 07:14:24 PM »
Interesting article on AI and the human mind:

https://aeon.co/essays/are-humans-really-blind-to-the-gorilla-on-the-basketball-court

Quote
Deciding what is relevant and meaningful, and what is not, are vital to intelligence and rationality. And relevance and meaning continue to be outside the realm of AI (as illustrated by the so-called frame problem). Computers can be programmed to recognise and attend to certain features of the world – which need to be clearly specified and programmed a priori. But they cannot be programmed to make new observations, to ask novel questions or to meaningfully adjust to changing circumstances. The human ability to ask new questions, to generate hypotheses, and to identify and find novelty is unique and not programmable. No statistical procedure allows one to somehow see a mundane, taken-for-granted observation in a radically different and new way. That’s where humans come in.
Thanks for sharing that, the notion of the Suchbild is familiar to me but I never knew there was a word for it! It very much reminds of of Donald Hoffman's discussion on (e.g. the hard problem of consciousness [Hoffman is on for about 30 minutes but David Chalmers is also worthwhile; Daniel Dennett is funny since he acts like a total asshat as usual!]). Hoffman argues in favor of an explanation based on conscious-realism (there are only conscious agents) that perhaps can be taken to suggest that there are only Suchbilds of various conscious agents that reflect the fitness function of those agents.

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...in 2008 Chris Anderson, then editor of Wired, boldly proclaimed ‘the end of theory’, as the ‘data deluge makes the scientific method obsolete
The refutation, mentioned in the article, of this notion by Popper more than 40 years prior to Anderson's assertion is amusing and quite convincing. At work, I had "Lean Six Sigma" training that seemed to hinge a bit too much on the step Collect ALL the Data and pray it magically tells you what is wrong.

maizefolk

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1711 on: August 16, 2018, 08:34:28 PM »
A grocery store in Arizona is going to start offering home delivery of groceries using self driving cars rather than having a human do so.

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he technology is supplied by Nuro, a self-driving vehicle startup founded by two veterans of Google's self-driving car project. ... That vehicle, known as the R1, is significantly smaller and lighter than a conventional passenger car. ... A smaller, lighter vehicle would do less damage if it ever ran into something. The vehicle's maximum speed of 25 miles per hour also makes serious injuries less likely.

Less exciting or dramatic than some of the stories posted to this thread, but happening as we speak.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/08/kroger-launches-autonomous-grocery-delivery-service-in-arizona/

boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1712 on: August 17, 2018, 05:36:07 AM »
A grocery store in Arizona is going to start offering home delivery of groceries using self driving cars rather than having a human do so.

Quote
he technology is supplied by Nuro, a self-driving vehicle startup founded by two veterans of Google's self-driving car project. ... That vehicle, known as the R1, is significantly smaller and lighter than a conventional passenger car. ... A smaller, lighter vehicle would do less damage if it ever ran into something. The vehicle's maximum speed of 25 miles per hour also makes serious injuries less likely.

Less exciting or dramatic than some of the stories posted to this thread, but happening as we speak.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/08/kroger-launches-autonomous-grocery-delivery-service-in-arizona/

I would say this is super exciting. Grocery stores will essentially turn into mini warehouses and auto fill small robot cars like this in local neighborhoods.

TempusFugit

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1713 on: August 17, 2018, 07:31:40 AM »
A grocery store in Arizona is going to start offering home delivery of groceries using self driving cars rather than having a human do so.

Quote
he technology is supplied by Nuro, a self-driving vehicle startup founded by two veterans of Google's self-driving car project. ... That vehicle, known as the R1, is significantly smaller and lighter than a conventional passenger car. ... A smaller, lighter vehicle would do less damage if it ever ran into something. The vehicle's maximum speed of 25 miles per hour also makes serious injuries less likely.

Less exciting or dramatic than some of the stories posted to this thread, but happening as we speak.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/08/kroger-launches-autonomous-grocery-delivery-service-in-arizona/

I would say this is super exciting. Grocery stores will essentially turn into mini warehouses and auto fill small robot cars like this in local neighborhoods.

Almost a decade ago, I worked with a few friends and contracted with this particular grocer to develop and prototype some of their technology.  Not this particular project, mind you, but stuff that does involve replacing humans by offloading the work to the customer with a technological helper.   That project is only now being deployed across the country - and I'm sure it's much changed since my involvement. 

The interesting thing that I learned during that experience with this specific company is just how much money they spend on R&D.  What most of us would probably think of as a staid, 'old fashioned' industry is actually pushing a lot of technological boundaries.   

maizefolk

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1714 on: August 17, 2018, 07:36:34 AM »
Almost a decade ago, I worked with a few friends and contracted with this particular grocer to develop and prototype some of their technology.  Not this particular project, mind you, but stuff that does involve replacing humans by offloading the work to the customer with a technological helper.   

I'm guessing self-checkout systems?

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The interesting thing that I learned during that experience with this specific company is just how much money they spend on R&D.  What most of us would probably think of as a staid, 'old fashioned' industry is actually pushing a lot of technological boundaries.

Yeah I wouldn't have though of grocery stores has a high R&D industry, but it kind of makes sense. When a good profit margin is 3% and the industry average margin in 1%, anything that reduces your cost of doing business or lets you charge a bit more is going to have dramatic effect on your take home profits.

robartsd

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1715 on: August 17, 2018, 12:08:21 PM »
A grocery store in Arizona is going to start offering home delivery of groceries using self driving cars rather than having a human do so.

Quote
he technology is supplied by Nuro, a self-driving vehicle startup founded by two veterans of Google's self-driving car project. ... That vehicle, known as the R1, is significantly smaller and lighter than a conventional passenger car. ... A smaller, lighter vehicle would do less damage if it ever ran into something. The vehicle's maximum speed of 25 miles per hour also makes serious injuries less likely.

Less exciting or dramatic than some of the stories posted to this thread, but happening as we speak.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/08/kroger-launches-autonomous-grocery-delivery-service-in-arizona/

I would say this is super exciting. Grocery stores will essentially turn into mini warehouses and auto fill small robot cars like this in local neighborhoods.
Almost a decade ago, I worked with a few friends and contracted with this particular grocer to develop and prototype some of their technology.  Not this particular project, mind you, but stuff that does involve replacing humans by offloading the work to the customer with a technological helper.   That project is only now being deployed across the country - and I'm sure it's much changed since my involvement. 

The interesting thing that I learned during that experience with this specific company is just how much money they spend on R&D.  What most of us would probably think of as a staid, 'old fashioned' industry is actually pushing a lot of technological boundaries.   

Once grocery stores are essentially mini-warehouses, they will be consolidated to a city or regional warehouse (most chains already have a distribution center that could become the origin point for autonomous delivery). Amazon Fresh will eventually force the grocery space to either sell the grocery shopping "experience" in neighborhood stores or invest in directly competing with delivery on demand services. I do see the potential for at least two delivery brands (one focused on top quality and high customer service, the other focused on best value) in most markets. I think warehouse stores will remain serving people who are looking for saving by purchasing larger quantities at once. I can't predict what will happen to discount grocery stores - it could be that the quality of produce is low enough that their shoppers won't want to delegate the task of selecting specific items. If discount groceries shut down, "food deserts" may become even more of a problem for low income households if minimum order sizes are too high, or reliable internet access is not available to them.

boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1716 on: August 17, 2018, 01:52:41 PM »
Aldi's produce is not bad and doesn't have to be picked over. This idea that discount grocers have subpar products is hilarious. 

dougules

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1717 on: August 21, 2018, 11:05:24 AM »

dougules

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1718 on: August 21, 2018, 11:17:27 AM »
Grocery stores make a lot of money off of impulse purchases if I remember correctly.  How will automated delivery affect that?

boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1719 on: August 21, 2018, 11:37:46 AM »
Grocery stores make a lot of money off of impulse purchases if I remember correctly.  How will automated delivery affect that?

us frugal people will pay more b/c there wont be a reason to have loss leaders anymore.  I personally think the frugal chains will thrive in this environment b/c they've worked their prices down and pre packaged produce so you buy a bag of 3 green peppers or a group of this or that everything is packaged for unit pricing already and made affordable with little sales.

BrightFIRE

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1720 on: August 21, 2018, 01:16:37 PM »
Aldi's produce is not bad and doesn't have to be picked over. This idea that discount grocers have subpar products is hilarious.

Sometimes it does. But I don't find that to be unique to Aldi. My local major chain grocery often has quite terrible produce (unripe tomatoes in tomato season, rotting herbs, moldy berries), which is why I hardly ever shop there.

I personally have never liked any of the "shop for you" delivery options of fresh produce because they aren't as discerning as I am about quality/ripeness/etc.

dougules

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1721 on: August 22, 2018, 10:52:26 AM »
Aldi's produce is not bad and doesn't have to be picked over. This idea that discount grocers have subpar products is hilarious.

Sometimes it does. But I don't find that to be unique to Aldi. My local major chain grocery often has quite terrible produce (unripe tomatoes in tomato season, rotting herbs, moldy berries), which is why I hardly ever shop there.

I personally have never liked any of the "shop for you" delivery options of fresh produce because they aren't as discerning as I am about quality/ripeness/etc.

I'm not particularly impressed with Aldi's produce.  Sometimes they have good stuff, but their fruit is generally very green.  They also go for looks over flavor.  In their defense that's a very common problem even sometimes with higher end grocery stores.  It may also depend on where you are geographically. 

The point is, though, that I would not want to buy produce sight unseen.  You don't know if you're getting anything good.  A green cantaloupe and brown bananas are a bad purchase at any price. 

boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1722 on: August 22, 2018, 10:58:46 AM »
Aldi's produce is not bad and doesn't have to be picked over. This idea that discount grocers have subpar products is hilarious.

Sometimes it does. But I don't find that to be unique to Aldi. My local major chain grocery often has quite terrible produce (unripe tomatoes in tomato season, rotting herbs, moldy berries), which is why I hardly ever shop there.

I personally have never liked any of the "shop for you" delivery options of fresh produce because they aren't as discerning as I am about quality/ripeness/etc.

I'm not particularly impressed with Aldi's produce.  Sometimes they have good stuff, but their fruit is generally very green.  They also go for looks over flavor.  In their defense that's a very common problem even sometimes with higher end grocery stores.  It may also depend on where you are geographically. 

The point is, though, that I would not want to buy produce sight unseen.  You don't know if you're getting anything good.  A green cantaloupe and brown bananas are a bad purchase at any price.

i'd think this problem would remedy itself quickly with better selection to prevent returns b/c that drive up costs to the store alot.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1723 on: August 22, 2018, 07:47:28 PM »
Grocery stores make a lot of money off of impulse purchases if I remember correctly.  How will automated delivery affect that?

Online stores are getting much better at upsells and retargetting.

To mock a checkout counter with a bunch of impulse snacks, chap sticks, magazines, etc...I imagine an online store could have a pre-checkout page with a bunch of random items in a grid that could be added to the cart last minute before purchase. I don't see this on Amazon much, but try registering a domain on GoDaddy or some business cards on Vistaprint. Right before you buy, you're met with a wall of cheap personalized add-on products with 1 click to add. It works.

On retargetting - a lot of grocery shoppers change their mind when it comes to the checkout line and restocking carts of "go-backs" is a regular part of a grocery worker's job. Imagine being able to ask the customer over the course of the following weeks if they want to now buy the things they left behind. Online stores can do this.

I was in a grocery store yesterday, which has been gutted from 30 checkout stands to only 6 cashier's active during busy hours. Self checkout handles 3/4 of the customers now. I feel the grocery store experience will be gone one day, so it made me appreciate my time in there. It was weird.

boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1724 on: August 22, 2018, 07:54:17 PM »
Not having self check out has always confused me at Aldi since they package everything. Well almost there is some weight things now but it would be so much faster.  Unless they've timed it and determined their cashier's are faster bc they are really quick.

maizefolk

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1725 on: August 22, 2018, 07:58:59 PM »
Yeah, a lot of online stores seem to be masters of the "last minute offer" right as you click checkout and I suspect this could rapidly compensate for the loss of impulse purchases in the checkout lane.

Also, the median grocery store spends about 10% of net revenue on labor* being able to cut even a proportion of that spending from fewer cashiers and less employee time spent facing, cleaning up spills, restocking (as Goodidea pointed out already) etc would do wonders for profits if average margins are only 1% of revenue.

*Or maybe 13.5%? It's not clear to me if spending on benefits is a subset of spending on labor or in addition to it. Here's the source I'm using if you want to decide for yourself. http://www.workforce.com/2004/01/30/labor-and-benefits-expenses-in-supermarkets/

boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1726 on: August 22, 2018, 08:02:59 PM »
Amazon is already doing grocery delivery with now. They bought whole foods and opened warehouses near almost all metro areas. It's really a matter of time before our food comes from places like this. They have the warehouseing and logistics to do this. Aldi bought a lot of the old toys Rus stores. I don't know about you guys but I've not seen an aldi the size of a typical toys r us. Could they be prepping for the new game

TempusFugit

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1727 on: August 31, 2018, 07:41:29 AM »
Another article regarding the way our near constant interaction with algorithms and machines is affecting how we communicate with other humans as well. 

https://medium.com/s/story/how-facebook-has-flattened-human-communication-c1525a15e9aa

It should be no time at all before machines pass the Turing test, because humans are communicating more and more like machines every day.   

maizefolk

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1728 on: September 24, 2018, 07:44:34 PM »
AI is beginning to replace more service jobs around the world. This article talks about how in China a lot of front desk workers at hotels are starting to be replaced by facial recognition technology.

Quote
The bosses haven’t yet introduced facial recognition technology at the Royal Hawaiian Hotel. But from her perch behind the front desk at the pink neo-Moorish palace overlooking Waikiki Beach, Jean Te’o-Gibney can see it coming. “Marriott just rolled it out in China,” enabling guests to check into their rooms without bothering with front-desk formalities, said Ms. Te’o-Gibney, a 53-year-old grandmother of seven. “It seems they know they will be eliminating our jobs.” Similar fears simmer throughout Marriott’s vast network of hotels, the largest in the United States.
...
Unlike manufacturing workers, whose jobs have been lost to automation since as far back as the 1950s, workers in the low-wage portion of the service sector had remained until now largely shielded from job-killing technologies. Many earned too little to justify large capital costs to replace them. A typical hotel or motel desk clerk earns just over $12 an hour, according to government data; a concierge just over $13.50. And many of the tasks they perform seemed too challenging to automate. Technology is changing this calculus.

Source and full article: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/24/business/economy/hotel-workers-ai-technology-alexa.html

boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1729 on: September 24, 2018, 07:48:04 PM »
Makes complete sense. Probably saves them more than the wages. I can talk my way into perks I shouldn't receive at the front desk every time I check in esp if it's at a hotel I stay at a lot.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1730 on: December 13, 2018, 06:38:29 PM »

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1731 on: December 14, 2018, 12:02:07 PM »
https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2018/12/guns-drunks-and-rage-waymo-self-driving-vans-targeted-by-angry-arizonians/

Will automation bring out the worst in a handful of people?

People resist change.  Any change.  It is human nature.  It is likely that in our lifetimes driverless cars will become the norm and then (unfortunately) the rage is likely to be directed at "those crazies who insist on driving manually".  I for one am looking forward to driverless, on demand transportation.  I would love to get rid of my car, insurance, taxes, maintenance etc.

One thing to keep in mind as we envision this future is how are the roads going to be paid for.  This funding has to come from somewhere.  The government may start taxing rides (usage based), increase property, sales and/or income taxes, or find some other way to replace the funding lost from declining gas taxes.  The pessimist in me says that will do all of these and then still say they need more money for roads.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1732 on: December 14, 2018, 12:29:05 PM »
Please do not get drunk and shoot the robots. 

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1733 on: December 14, 2018, 12:35:26 PM »
I for one am looking forward to driverless, on demand transportation.  I would love to get rid of my car, insurance, taxes, maintenance etc.

Historically speaking, we tend to end up paying for those reduced costs in other ways.  People used to complain about the cost of keeping horses healthy and fed and groomed and housed, but we ended up paying far more to upgrade our dirt roads to pavement and spent trillions pumping oil out of the ground, not even mentioning the environmental or health consequences of our transition to the automobile.  Cars are not cheaper than horses.  They are better and more expensive.

So I expect the same sort of thing could happen with transitioning to shared autonomous cars.  Yes you'd lose your personal insurance and maintenance costs, but those same costs would get rolled into the cost of whatever sharing service replaces your personal car, plus whatever additional costs you need to pay for the superior service.

Quote
One thing to keep in mind as we envision this future is how are the roads going to be paid for.  This funding has to come from somewhere.  The government may start taxing rides (usage based), increase property, sales and/or income taxes, or find some other way to replace the funding lost from declining gas taxes.  The pessimist in me says that will do all of these and then still say they need more money for roads.

Gas taxes are a rough proxy for road costs, but unfortunately they don't scale linearly with vehicle weight so in practice individual drivers are currently subsidizing freight transport.  A more logical model would charge people by both distance traveled and weight transported over that distance, with the road maintenance portion scaled to the damage-causing weight of the vehicle.  I think construction equipment should absolutely pay a higher per-mile charge to drive on residential streets than should Miatas.  A few short weeks of regular dump truck usage can totally destroy a city street.  Our current model shares these costs with everyone, which means some people who drive big trucks pay less than they should, some people who use the roads for bicycles pay less than they should, and average daily commuters pick up the difference.

Can you envision a world where AI-controlled autonomous vehicles deliver goods and people wherever they need to go in a big-data sharing network that actually tracks fuel consumption, distance covered, and weight delivered, while simultaneously offering a sliding price scale based on what each trip actually costs?  Long haul truckers are probably going out of business in a hurry to be largely replaced with trains.  People who want giant pickups to take their kids to school are going to pay for the privilege.  Carpooling would be not only financially incentivized but automatically scheduled for you.  And all you have to do is give up the privacy to drive a dead body out to the swamp at night without anyone knowing about it.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1734 on: December 14, 2018, 12:47:01 PM »
https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2018/12/guns-drunks-and-rage-waymo-self-driving-vans-targeted-by-angry-arizonians/

Will automation bring out the worst in a handful of people?

People resist change.  Any change.  It is human nature.  It is likely that in our lifetimes driverless cars will become the norm and then (unfortunately) the rage is likely to be directed at "those crazies who insist on driving manually".  I for one am looking forward to driverless, on demand transportation.  I would love to get rid of my car, insurance, taxes, maintenance etc.

One thing to keep in mind as we envision this future is how are the roads going to be paid for.  This funding has to come from somewhere.  The government may start taxing rides (usage based), increase property, sales and/or income taxes, or find some other way to replace the funding lost from declining gas taxes.  The pessimist in me says that will do all of these and then still say they need more money for roads.

Gas taxes only pay for a fraction of the cost of roads anyway.  Unfortunately any reduction in revenue from those would just mean more drawn out of the general fund with no incentive to use less. 

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1735 on: December 15, 2018, 12:40:06 AM »
I for one am looking forward to driverless, on demand transportation.  I would love to get rid of my car, insurance, taxes, maintenance etc.

Historically speaking, we tend to end up paying for those reduced costs in other ways.  People used to complain about the cost of keeping horses healthy and fed and groomed and housed, but we ended up paying far more to upgrade our dirt roads to pavement and spent trillions pumping oil out of the ground, not even mentioning the environmental or health consequences of our transition to the automobile.  Cars are not cheaper than horses.  They are better and more expensive.

So I expect the same sort of thing could happen with transitioning to shared autonomous cars.  Yes you'd lose your personal insurance and maintenance costs, but those same costs would get rolled into the cost of whatever sharing service replaces your personal car, plus whatever additional costs you need to pay for the superior service.

Quote
One thing to keep in mind as we envision this future is how are the roads going to be paid for.  This funding has to come from somewhere.  The government may start taxing rides (usage based), increase property, sales and/or income taxes, or find some other way to replace the funding lost from declining gas taxes.  The pessimist in me says that will do all of these and then still say they need more money for roads.

Gas taxes are a rough proxy for road costs, but unfortunately they don't scale linearly with vehicle weight so in practice individual drivers are currently subsidizing freight transport.  A more logical model would charge people by both distance traveled and weight transported over that distance, with the road maintenance portion scaled to the damage-causing weight of the vehicle.  I think construction equipment should absolutely pay a higher per-mile charge to drive on residential streets than should Miatas.  A few short weeks of regular dump truck usage can totally destroy a city street.  Our current model shares these costs with everyone, which means some people who drive big trucks pay less than they should, some people who use the roads for bicycles pay less than they should, and average daily commuters pick up the difference.

Can you envision a world where AI-controlled autonomous vehicles deliver goods and people wherever they need to go in a big-data sharing network that actually tracks fuel consumption, distance covered, and weight delivered, while simultaneously offering a sliding price scale based on what each trip actually costs?  Long haul truckers are probably going out of business in a hurry to be largely replaced with trains.  People who want giant pickups to take their kids to school are going to pay for the privilege.  Carpooling would be not only financially incentivized but automatically scheduled for you.  And all you have to do is give up the privacy to drive a dead body out to the swamp at night without anyone knowing about it.

Oregon uses a weight mile tax for large vehicles although a Miata and an f250 ate both considered regular consumer vehicles and pay the same rate, not a weight mile tax. Is this not a common thing?

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1736 on: December 15, 2018, 12:52:15 AM »
It looks like weight mile taxes start at 26000 lbs here. https://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/Forms/Motcarr/9928-2018.pdf

It's also interesting that at very high weights you get a discount for having more axles. Presumably because it spreads the load better and causes less damage. Vehicles in these categories are exempt from paying tax on diesel.

It looks like only 4 states have taxes similar to this or else the terms are different enough I couldn't locate more than 4

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1737 on: December 20, 2018, 02:53:49 PM »
I for one am looking forward to driverless, on demand transportation.  I would love to get rid of my car, insurance, taxes, maintenance etc.

Historically speaking, we tend to end up paying for those reduced costs in other ways.  People used to complain about the cost of keeping horses healthy and fed and groomed and housed, but we ended up paying far more to upgrade our dirt roads to pavement and spent trillions pumping oil out of the ground, not even mentioning the environmental or health consequences of our transition to the automobile.  Cars are not cheaper than horses.  They are better and more expensive.

So I expect the same sort of thing could happen with transitioning to shared autonomous cars.  Yes you'd lose your personal insurance and maintenance costs, but those same costs would get rolled into the cost of whatever sharing service replaces your personal car, plus whatever additional costs you need to pay for the superior service.

Quote
One thing to keep in mind as we envision this future is how are the roads going to be paid for.  This funding has to come from somewhere.  The government may start taxing rides (usage based), increase property, sales and/or income taxes, or find some other way to replace the funding lost from declining gas taxes.  The pessimist in me says that will do all of these and then still say they need more money for roads.

Gas taxes are a rough proxy for road costs, but unfortunately they don't scale linearly with vehicle weight so in practice individual drivers are currently subsidizing freight transport.  A more logical model would charge people by both distance traveled and weight transported over that distance, with the road maintenance portion scaled to the damage-causing weight of the vehicle.  I think construction equipment should absolutely pay a higher per-mile charge to drive on residential streets than should Miatas.  A few short weeks of regular dump truck usage can totally destroy a city street.  Our current model shares these costs with everyone, which means some people who drive big trucks pay less than they should, some people who use the roads for bicycles pay less than they should, and average daily commuters pick up the difference.

Can you envision a world where AI-controlled autonomous vehicles deliver goods and people wherever they need to go in a big-data sharing network that actually tracks fuel consumption, distance covered, and weight delivered, while simultaneously offering a sliding price scale based on what each trip actually costs?  Long haul truckers are probably going out of business in a hurry to be largely replaced with trains.  People who want giant pickups to take their kids to school are going to pay for the privilege.  Carpooling would be not only financially incentivized but automatically scheduled for you.  And all you have to do is give up the privacy to drive a dead body out to the swamp at night without anyone knowing about it.
You don't own a horse do you? Hahaha

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1738 on: January 29, 2019, 07:18:42 PM »
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/25/technology/automation-davos-world-economic-forum.html

Some of the wealthy would like to automate nearly their entire workforce. Perhaps we'll all be working service jobs?

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1739 on: January 29, 2019, 07:32:58 PM »
I think it's quite possible to both be genuinely concerned about the impact of AI and automation replacing workers on society and at the same time be racing to automate your own workforce before your competitors automate, cut their prices 50% and drive you out of business while still making much higher profits than before they cut their prices.

Also the robots and AI are coming for service jobs too. The only long term safety from being displaced by automation is FI.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1740 on: January 29, 2019, 08:10:56 PM »
The only long term safety from being displaced by automation is FI.

I'm not sure that's the only safety.  As long as we have human beings in the economy, some of them will get paid to be human beings. 

I think that a thousand years from now people will still get paid to play live music, or dance, or fight, or fuck.  These are uniquely human activities that we value more because a human being is doing them, even when a robot can do them better.  Similarly, I suspect that there will always be some economic value in low-production handmade goods precisely because they are handmade, even if superior products manufactured by robots are cheaper. 

Now that I write it all out, I'm realizing that the unifying theme of all of these potential future human jobs is that they involve some form of art.  Woodcarvers and ballet dancers and hookers and football players must certainly be technically proficient, but it is the artistry in their work that causes people to pay money for it.  That participation by a human whose skill we admire is what makes it desirable enough that it's profitable to perform.  Watching robots do that work is much less interesting.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1741 on: February 01, 2019, 02:09:03 PM »
Now that I write it all out, I'm realizing that the unifying theme of all of these potential future human jobs is that they involve some form of art.  Woodcarvers and ballet dancers and hookers and football players must certainly be technically proficient, but it is the artistry in their work that causes people to pay money for it.  That participation by a human whose skill we admire is what makes it desirable enough that it's profitable to perform.  Watching robots do that work is much less interesting.

Nick Cave said something interesting about AI and songwriting recently:

"Of course, we go to songs to make us feel something — happy, sad, sexy, homesick, excited or whatever — but this is not all a song does. What a great song makes us feel is a sense of awe. There is a reason for this. A sense of awe is almost exclusively predicated on our limitations as human beings. It is entirely to do with our audacity as humans to reach beyond our potential."

"We are listening to Beethoven compose the Ninth Symphony while almost totally deaf. We are listening to Prince, that tiny cluster of purple atoms, singing in the pouring rain at the Super Bowl and blowing everyone’s minds. We are listening to Nina Simone stuff all her rage and disappointment into the most tender of love songs. We are listening to Paganini continue to play his Stradivarius as the strings snapped. We are listening to Jimi Hendrix kneel and set fire to his own instrument."

"What we are actually listening to is human limitation and the audacity to transcend it. Artificial Intelligence, for all its unlimited potential, simply doesn’t have this capacity. How could it? And this is the essence of transcendence. If we have limitless potential then what is there to transcend? And therefore what is the purpose of the imagination at all. Music has the ability to touch the celestial sphere with the tips of its fingers and the awe and wonder we feel is in the desperate temerity of the reach, not just the outcome."

https://www.theredhandfiles.com/considering-human-imagination-the-last-piece-of-wilderness-do-you-think-ai-will-ever-be-able-to-write-a-good-song/

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1742 on: February 03, 2019, 10:28:32 AM »
That participation by a human whose skill we admire is what makes it desirable enough that it's profitable to perform.  Watching robots do that work is much less interesting.

I think the current popularity of watching other people play video games more or less proves that this is exactly right.  The game itself could of course move and aim and jump the avatars with 100% perfect precision everytime, but nobody will sit and watch two teams of all AI fight each other in Fortnite for hours on end.  Even when if we can't see the person, know nothing about them, just the knowledge that it is in fact a person makes it more interesting

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1743 on: February 03, 2019, 10:51:55 AM »
Yet technology is reducing the need for labor in those fields too. If the average person wanted to see a play once a week in a theater that seated 3,000 people (the size of the Globe Theater in Shakespeare's era), you need a lot more actors and stage hands and ticket takers as a proportion of the total population than the number of actors, producers, grips, and editors needed for people to watch one movie/week in the comfort of their own homes. (And they'll be able to pick a movie fits their personal interest, not whatever the local theater company decides to put on). Digital technology is dropping the total person-hours of work required per hour of entertainment even further (this is part of why netflix is now able to afford to produce huge numbers of television series and movies). Hours of person-work required to produce an hour of entertainment drop even further when entertainment can be a cute member of whichever sex you are attracted to sitting in their apartment and playing video games while it streams out online.

To some extent the above trend is offset by increased consumption of entertainment. But there is a limit to how much further that can grow. The average american already spends close to 5 hours a day watching live and DVRed television and another 2-3 hours on smartphones/tablets playing games and consuming social media. Assuming we don't come up with drugs to eliminate sleep, it seems unlikely entertainment consumption could grow much more than 2x beyond what we already consume, even in a world with a UBI and absolutely no need to ever work.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1744 on: February 03, 2019, 12:31:05 PM »
Assuming we don't come up with drugs to eliminate sleep, it seems unlikely entertainment consumption could grow much more than 2x beyond what we already consume, even in a world with a UBI and absolutely no need to ever work.

Entertainment consumption doesn't need to grow by 2x in order to become 2x as profitable.  As long as people are willing to pay more to consume art (which also costs less to produce), then more art and more profit will be made.  That's the beauty of art, it's not a like a factory widget where the value is tied up in the raw materials or labor costs.

As long as there are still human beings in the system making decisions about how to allocate resources, there will continue to be competition for those resources.  I'm sure it would be baffling to the most computer literate person in 1979 that within the span of 40 years there would be a multi-billion dollar industry selling in-game items for video games.  Who's to say what crazy stuff we'll all be paying for in 40 more years? 

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1745 on: February 03, 2019, 12:48:17 PM »
More and more profit yes. But not a need for employing more and more people.

I have no doubt that in a future UBI/star trek world where nobody NEEDS to work, the people who are the very absolute best at producing entertainment/art will be able to make large fortunes.

So you're right, I should (and do) amend my previous statement to "Unless you are one of the absolute best people in the world in your chosen field, the only long term safety from being displaced by automation is FI."

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1746 on: February 03, 2019, 01:21:23 PM »
More and more profit yes. But not a need for employing more and more people.

I see now that I was misunderstanding your point.  You're thinking about the long term viability of a situation in which workers are threatened because most people have no useful work to do, potentially causing economic collapse.  I was more narrowly focused on the long term viability of a situation in which corporate profitability is threatened because most people have no useful work to do, potentially causing economic collapse. 

I was only thinking about how capitalism could continue to thrive by generating wealth through ruthless exploitation, blindly accepting that those profits would be concentrated in the hands of the few instead of the many.  Is this what financial independence does to a person?  Have I unwittingly been transformed from an advocate for the greater good of humanity into a greedy corporate stockholder who promotes the excesses of capitalism because that's how I now make my money?  That hurts.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1747 on: February 03, 2019, 01:31:43 PM »
Hahaha. Sol, I think you're put your finger on exactly the way we were talking past each other, thanks!

Yes, I'm not arguing for the doom of our economic/political/financial system. Just that we may be living in the last era where many people's labor is worth much. In a UBI/star trek world, while people will probably have enough to live on and pursue their passions, they probably WON'T have enough to save up and buy a share of the companies/capital which are making money hand over fist from their spending. Of course if we move to a future where most people's labor has little value and we DON'T also make the transition to a UBI/star trek world, then economic/political collapse is definitely back on the table.

Short of a revolution (which certainly could happen, but I don't think it is inevitable), I agree with you that I don't see much risk that companies (capital) will stop being able to produce lots of income and profit from selling people things they want in the future, regardless of whether those things are objects, entertainment or experiences.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1748 on: February 03, 2019, 07:10:49 PM »
Assuming that the majority of people continue more or less their current lifestyles and consumption, than a UBI high enough that no one needs to work will leave enough excess beyond the basic necessities that it would still be possible to save enough to invest.
The average person would complain and insist that the amount wasn't enough to live on, but the sort of person who posts on these forums would be slowly building capital even if they started with none.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2019, 07:12:55 PM by Bakari »

Bakari

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1749 on: February 03, 2019, 07:15:10 PM »
Have I unwittingly been transformed from an advocate for the greater good of humanity into a greedy corporate stockholder who promotes the excesses of capitalism because that's how I now make my money?  That hurts.

I hadn't read any of your prior posts as advocating for any particular outcome, so much as predicting it.  And you are probably right.  No moral quandary in that, any more than Rasputin predicting the revolution was the cause of it

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!