When I initially started typing out this post, it wound up all over the place. So I went back to the drawing board to make it a bit more coherent. I know some of this has been said before (even by me), but it all goes together, so I’ll repeat myself.
As far as self-driving electronic vehicle adoption, my guess is that will not be as quick as we would like. There are two main reasons I can think of for this. The American culture is a bit too car-centric (like cars = freedom) for people to just give up that ‘freedom’ and be at the whim of software. There are also a lot of older cars on the road that are cheap and/or well-maintained. Shit, until last September, I spent the last 5 years driving a $400 1988 Sentra for a 90 mile round trip commute. And it
still runs! There is also a generational thing. People who grew up with that freedom=cars=American marketing campaigns in general seem to be more attached to that concept. On these forums, for the most part, cars are viewed more like shackles.
Now, the other thing that was mentioned was legislation. I’m in the camp that logic will eventually dictate that it’s too unsafe to have human drivers in high-speed/high-traffic situations, and legislation will follow. Not soon, but eventually. Self-driving cars are in a pretty interesting place. I’ve never seen something so widespread, but there are some similar situations I can think of. Namely, new recreational drugs and drones. There is a delay when new drugs come out (or something starts being used as drugs) before they are considered controlled. Salvia and the associated extracts is an example. One used to order it online and have it mailed to you. That has changed in quite a few states so far. Also, when drones became widely available, there weren’t any guidelines or rules for them, so it was pretty much a free for all. Now, legislation and FAA rules have been introduced. I suspect that these rules were implemented primarily due to public outcry based on perception and visibility (and possibly a touch of jealousy). So we’re actually in a similar spot with self-driving cars. People talk about how long it will take legislation to catch up, but what is missed sometimes is that there is (or wasn’t) legislation that even
touched on self-driving cars, which is why they were able to start testing them without special permission. Which is why Teslas have autopilot functionality that can update often. The only rules for that software are self-imposed. Nothing was on the books at all originally, and since it’s not as visible as drones, I doubt there will be huge outcry for legislation, and even if legislation does happen, I doubt it will be enforced (think of the anti-texting while driving laws).
Now, one thing that I've seen that addresses some of the first concerns is a project that The Boring Company is working on, with the uninspired and redundant name of 3D Tunnels. From a
TED talk that Elon Musk gave, he showed
this mockup of what it would be like. The thing I like about this is that it would not necessitate purchasing a new car, and yet it could (and should) be using sustainable energy, without sacrificing that sense of freedom. A cool idea as a stop-gap (not that I think it will happen fast enough, but still a cool idea).