Author Topic: Robots and their impact on the future  (Read 237609 times)

matchewed

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #900 on: October 23, 2016, 06:35:24 AM »
It will be a very very long process for robots to actually replace most common jobs. and we have at least 2-3 generations of time for the society to adapt. New jobs will come out, and wealth distribution will shift towards to new jobs.

I think that you may be wrong on this one.

Yeah. Are there new jobs opening up that need a human more than anything else?

No. Most new jobs now require a human and a brain.

A lot of the reason why jobs kept replacing the lost jobs in the past, say the industrial revolution, is that when jobs (for example the need for everyone to be on a farm) converted to more automated activities, there were still many jobs where the primary need was a human. Where the skillset of that human was less important.

That is not the case now. If you are an unskilled human, there are not many new jobs and new industries being created for you. In fact most of your options are being actively removed.
I'd argue the 2-3 generations was the part of the post I most disagreed with.

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Yeah I'm not sure how the wealth distribution will hash out. Too many variables for me to really form a solid opinion on. I can see it going so many ways. But the 2-3 generations? Probably less than 1 is closer to the truth.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #901 on: October 23, 2016, 09:08:09 PM »
Yeah I'm not sure how the wealth distribution will hash out. Too many variables for me to really form a solid opinion on. I can see it going so many ways. But the 2-3 generations? Probably less than 1 is closer to the truth.

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Knaak

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #902 on: October 25, 2016, 12:55:05 PM »
'Driverless' beer run; Bud makes shipment with self-driving truck

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Anheuser-Busch hauled a trailer loaded with beer 120 miles in an autonomous-drive truck, completing what's believed to be the first commercial shipment by a self-driving vehicle.

boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #903 on: October 25, 2016, 01:45:40 PM »
'Driverless' beer run; Bud makes shipment with self-driving truck

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Anheuser-Busch hauled a trailer loaded with beer 120 miles in an autonomous-drive truck, completing what's believed to be the first commercial shipment by a self-driving vehicle.

279Billion miles are driven by trucks annually.  at 28cents per mile for the low end of the avg truck driver pay. that pulls 78B dollars out of the hands op "professional drivers"  which according the article there are 3.6MM class 8 trucks if we assume only one driver per truck(which is probably low) thats over 1% of the population now jobless and those 78B are going to uber and the companies no longer using drivers b/c i'm sure the autonoumous truck will come at a discount to the human driver.
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sol

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #904 on: October 25, 2016, 01:55:14 PM »
279Billion miles are driven by trucks annually.  at 28cents per mile for the low end of the avg truck driver pay. that pulls 78B dollars out of the hands op "professional drivers"  which according the article there are 3.6MM class 8 trucks if we assume only one driver per truck(which is probably low) thats over 1% of the population now jobless and those 78B are going to uber and the companies no longer using drivers b/c i'm sure the autonoumous truck will come at a discount to the human driver.

How is this different from the old argument that tractors were going to put farm hands out of work?

As has already been pointed out in this thread, were TRYING to remove those menial jobs from the economy.  Nobody seriously believes we would be better off if 50% of the population were still farmers. 

This whole argument that automation/robots/AI is somehow bad for the economy because of job losses seems contrary to the entire history of human technological innovation.  We are all better off as a result of these changes, even the horse manure shovelers who were put out of work.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 01:58:15 PM by sol »

boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #905 on: October 25, 2016, 02:14:21 PM »
279Billion miles are driven by trucks annually.  at 28cents per mile for the low end of the avg truck driver pay. that pulls 78B dollars out of the hands op "professional drivers"  which according the article there are 3.6MM class 8 trucks if we assume only one driver per truck(which is probably low) thats over 1% of the population now jobless and those 78B are going to uber and the companies no longer using drivers b/c i'm sure the autonoumous truck will come at a discount to the human driver.

How is this different from the old argument that tractors were going to put farm hands out of work?

As has already been pointed out in this thread, were TRYING to remove those menial jobs from the economy.  Nobody seriously believes we would be better off if 50% of the population were still farmers. 

This whole argument that automation/robots/AI is somehow bad for the economy because of job losses seems contrary to the entire history of human technological innovation.  We are all better off as a result of these changes, even the horse manure shovelers who were put out of work.

my comment wasnt meant to be that the AI is bad ... but as all of this is automated away and we continue to make more humans with nothing for them to do as a job ... we will have to pay them living wages to just be alive. and there is nothing wrong with that. but it needs to start happening or we just need to darwinize the financial side of life and live off survival of the fittest... those are really the only choices.
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AlanStache

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #906 on: October 25, 2016, 02:15:44 PM »
I was wondering who would post the uber truck story :-)

But I wonder how this will affect air pollution, sure self driving truck will be more fuel efficient but at reduced costs I wonder if more miles will be driven and result in more pollution?  If this increase in drive miles displaces air-cargo it is probably a net reduction in air pollution but if it comes from trains then it is probably a net loss.  Or if the reduced costs increase demand for trucking then more miles will be driven too.  But if delivery companies could make significantly more efficient routes because you no longer had the artificial constant of the driver needing to get home maybe fewer miles would be driven... Lot of moving parts to this analysis. 
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Guses

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #907 on: October 25, 2016, 02:58:47 PM »


But I wonder how this will affect air pollution, sure self driving truck will be more fuel efficient but at reduced costs I wonder if more miles will be driven and result in more pollution?  If this increase in drive miles displaces air-cargo it is probably a net reduction in air pollution but if it comes from trains then it is probably a net loss.  Or if the reduced costs increase demand for trucking then more miles will be driven too.  But if delivery companies could make significantly more efficient routes because you no longer had the artificial constant of the driver needing to get home maybe fewer miles would be driven... Lot of moving parts to this analysis.

Hmmm... Yes, quite so indeed. What you are proposing is a Jevons paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox.

Assuming that trucks no longer need drivers, maybe they could be significantly improved in terms of efficiency and aerodynamics since they no longer need to protect a cushy human inside?

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #908 on: October 25, 2016, 03:31:37 PM »


But I wonder how this will affect air pollution, sure self driving truck will be more fuel efficient but at reduced costs I wonder if more miles will be driven and result in more pollution?  If this increase in drive miles displaces air-cargo it is probably a net reduction in air pollution but if it comes from trains then it is probably a net loss.  Or if the reduced costs increase demand for trucking then more miles will be driven too.  But if delivery companies could make significantly more efficient routes because you no longer had the artificial constant of the driver needing to get home maybe fewer miles would be driven... Lot of moving parts to this analysis.

Hmmm... Yes, quite so indeed. What you are proposing is a Jevons paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox.

Assuming that trucks no longer need drivers, maybe they could be significantly improved in terms of efficiency and aerodynamics since they no longer need to protect a cushy human inside?

thanks for the link, had heard if it before but did nto know the name

Aerodynamics, probably cant make radical improvements, you are pulling a really big box after all.  But a small mpg increase x 24 hours per day x millions of vehicles would add up. 
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rocketpj

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #909 on: October 25, 2016, 05:20:46 PM »
I'm curious about the follow-on effects of automated trucks and trucking.  Every truck that has a human driver has to start and stop somewhere close to a place that driver can live or sleep. What, if any, efficiencies will come from removing that factor, combined with the relatively lower cost of land outside of cities etc?

Give the trucks the ability to load and unload themselves (which should be pretty simple, at worst we have automated forklifts moving standardized pallets etc).  It isn't many steps until a massive warehouse and shipping hub has maybe 1 employee (who monitors things to flag when repairs are needed).  There is a pulp mill in my town that currently employs a lot of the adults in the area.  If it is still open 30 years from now it will probably have no more than a half dozen people working on a given day.

We can bemoan the loss of those jobs (as if any form of employment is somehow sacred and must be protected), but it will be more productive to figure out how to make the most of all those people that will be/are constantly being displaced.

ender

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #910 on: October 25, 2016, 06:10:27 PM »
How is this different from the old argument that tractors were going to put farm hands out of work?

As has already been pointed out in this thread, were TRYING to remove those menial jobs from the economy.  Nobody seriously believes we would be better off if 50% of the population were still farmers. 

This whole argument that automation/robots/AI is somehow bad for the economy because of job losses seems contrary to the entire history of human technological innovation.  We are all better off as a result of these changes, even the horse manure shovelers who were put out of work.

I'm unconvinced that it is always better to automate and remove menial types of jobs.

As a society, I think there is tremendous value in a large percentage of the population working at jobs where they feel productive and as though they are contributing to society. There is a point where the more menial jobs get automated the more difficult the outcome becomes. In many regards, this feels much better in Europe, where the combination of social programs as well as less income disparity makes it more possible to provide an income on jobs which would be difficult to subsist on in the USA.

It's possible we are way past this point already. As a software engineer, my concern is more "what if there are huge percentages of the population which are worthless in the job market?" and the implications that has on people in general.

sol

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #911 on: October 25, 2016, 06:46:21 PM »
I'm unconvinced that it is always better to automate and remove menial types of jobs.

Does your argument extend to people who pick cotton?

Quote
As a software engineer, my concern is more "what if there are huge percentages of the population which are worthless in the job market?" and the implications that has on people in general.

If we handle it correctly, I think the implication will be that we've successfully obliterated poverty.  A world in which technology has the ability to provide everyone with basic necessities, without anyone having to work for it, is pretty close to the utopian paradise humanity has always envisioned for itself.  Call it a post-scarcity society, if you like. 

Even in a world where everything we need is so abundant that nobody has to suffer by going without basics like food and shelter and education and good health, I'm sure there are some puritanical Americans who will argue that suffering is meritorious.  I will not be one of them.

Which isn't to say I don't favor hard work.  I totally understand the MMM mindset that there are personal rewards to be found in undertaking difficult tasks.  I just don't think any of those tasks should be life or death situations, when we live in world that already grows more than enough food for everyone yet still watches children wither and die of malnutrition. 

If robots can dig all of our ditches for us, I wouldn't stop anyone from digging if that's what they want to do, but neither would I compel anyone to dig in order to eat. 

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #912 on: October 25, 2016, 10:47:53 PM »

But I wonder how this will affect air pollution, sure self driving truck will be more fuel efficient but at reduced costs I wonder if more miles will be driven and result in more pollution?  If this increase in drive miles displaces air-cargo it is probably a net reduction in air pollution but if it comes from trains then it is probably a net loss.  Or if the reduced costs increase demand for trucking then more miles will be driven too.  But if delivery companies could make significantly more efficient routes because you no longer had the artificial constant of the driver needing to get home maybe fewer miles would be driven... Lot of moving parts to this analysis.


presumably it would be easier to automate trains than trucks, so eliminate those operator costs too, presumably train would still be a cheaper way to move cargo along routes with preexsiting tracks, just like now.


Assuming that trucks no longer need drivers, maybe they could be significantly improved in terms of efficiency and aerodynamics since they no longer need to protect a cushy human inside?


I don't think that makes up a significant amount of truck mass or shape


Aerodynamics, probably cant make radical improvements, you are pulling a really big box after all.  But a small mpg increase x 24 hours per day x millions of vehicles would add up.


There are actually really significant gains possible, however its a totally independent factor from whether a human drives it:
http://www.airflowtruck.com/


its real, exists now, its been moving freight across the country for 4 years now, averages more than 100% more mpg than the average long haul semi truck on the road (13.4 vs 6.5)
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Metric Mouse

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #913 on: October 27, 2016, 12:26:19 AM »

But I wonder how this will affect air pollution, sure self driving truck will be more fuel efficient but at reduced costs I wonder if more miles will be driven and result in more pollution?  If this increase in drive miles displaces air-cargo it is probably a net reduction in air pollution but if it comes from trains then it is probably a net loss.  Or if the reduced costs increase demand for trucking then more miles will be driven too.  But if delivery companies could make significantly more efficient routes because you no longer had the artificial constant of the driver needing to get home maybe fewer miles would be driven... Lot of moving parts to this analysis.


presumably it would be easier to automate trains than trucks, so eliminate those operator costs too, presumably train would still be a cheaper way to move cargo along routes with preexsiting tracks, just like now.


Assuming that trucks no longer need drivers, maybe they could be significantly improved in terms of efficiency and aerodynamics since they no longer need to protect a cushy human inside?


I don't think that makes up a significant amount of truck mass or shape


Aerodynamics, probably cant make radical improvements, you are pulling a really big box after all.  But a small mpg increase x 24 hours per day x millions of vehicles would add up.


There are actually really significant gains possible, however its a totally independent factor from whether a human drives it:
http://www.airflowtruck.com/


its real, exists now, its been moving freight across the country for 4 years now, averages more than 100% more mpg than the average long haul semi truck on the road (13.4 vs 6.5)

Would it be cheaper to load trains, unload trains, load trucks and then deliver by trucks? I mean, that's what we do now, but if trucks could become 100% more efficient, I'm not sure trains have that much more room to improve.  Wouldn't it be easier to load trucks and have them deliver the goods directly where they need to go? A line of trucks, drafting off each other down the highway at speed, merging and splitting off as needed, could be about as efficient as a train, no?
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boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #915 on: October 27, 2016, 08:37:32 AM »
man those last 3 paragraphs are awesome. 
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #916 on: October 27, 2016, 09:09:09 AM »
Would it be cheaper to load trains, unload trains, load trucks and then deliver by trucks? I mean, that's what we do now, but if trucks could become 100% more efficient, I'm not sure trains have that much more room to improve.  Wouldn't it be easier to load trucks and have them deliver the goods directly where they need to go? A line of trucks, drafting off each other down the highway at speed, merging and splitting off as needed, could be about as efficient as a train, no?


trucks would have to improve by about 350% to compete with trains, 130 ton-miles per gallon vs 475. 


Long shoreman are also being replaced by robots, automated ports will making loading and unloading cheaper, and possibly more efficent
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #917 on: October 27, 2016, 10:54:13 AM »
As anybody seen this?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/17/technology/ibm-is-counting-on-its-bet-on-watson-and-paying-big-money-for-it.html?_r=3

Very interesting.  The area that is most mind boggling is the growth.  Going from a half a billion today, to $6 billion in four years to $17 billion in six years is crazy for one company.  Maybe it is crazy, but I think the message is the rate of change will not be like the past. It will be amazing for the world as long as the spoils are shared with all members or you are in the category where the spoils are coming to you.

mozar

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #918 on: October 30, 2016, 12:20:43 PM »
Because I enjoy it when other people post videos, here is a robot arm piloting a plane.
http://newatlas.com/robot-alias-darpa-cessna-caravan/45973/
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boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #919 on: October 30, 2016, 06:31:16 PM »
Because I enjoy it when other people post videos, here is a robot arm piloting a plane.
http://newatlas.com/robot-alias-darpa-cessna-caravan/45973/

That's a poor use of a human like arm. To pilot a plane all steering and controls could much more effectively just be computer controlled vs using a robotic arm to supplement the human input to a computer.
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Bakari

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #920 on: October 30, 2016, 09:15:11 PM »
Because I enjoy it when other people post videos, here is a robot arm piloting a plane.
http://newatlas.com/robot-alias-darpa-cessna-caravan/45973/

That's a poor use of a human like arm. To pilot a plane all steering and controls could much more effectively just be computer controlled vs using a robotic arm to supplement the human input to a computer.


All steering and controls already are controlled by computer.
I don't think that was the point.
Much like how the DARPA robot challengers had to drive a little car.  Obviously robot cars exist, and they don't use humanoid robots behind a wheel, but there is a lot of potential value from a single robot that can do many different things.  Part of that is manipulating objects in a human based world
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P9geWwi9e0
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #921 on: October 30, 2016, 10:02:33 PM »

boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #922 on: October 31, 2016, 06:30:26 AM »
Because I enjoy it when other people post videos, here is a robot arm piloting a plane.
http://newatlas.com/robot-alias-darpa-cessna-caravan/45973/

That's a poor use of a human like arm. To pilot a plane all steering and controls could much more effectively just be computer controlled vs using a robotic arm to supplement the human input to a computer.


All steering and controls already are controlled by computer.
I don't think that was the point.
Much like how the DARPA robot challengers had to drive a little car.  Obviously robot cars exist, and they don't use humanoid robots behind a wheel, but there is a lot of potential value from a single robot that can do many different things.  Part of that is manipulating objects in a human based world
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P9geWwi9e0

i would think spending time focusing on things that need a human like arm would make more sense than things easily automated with out a human at all. but thats just my take.
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AlanStache

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #923 on: November 01, 2016, 10:04:37 AM »
re: http://newatlas.com/robot-alias-darpa-cessna-caravan/45973/

At first I thought that was dumbest thing ever.  Then I thought about it a bit and could see the application for retrofitting aircraft.  In many (most/nearly all..?) existing aircraft there is no common computer box that connects everything on-board.  The only place something could control the fuel pumps, cabin pressurization, radios, and flight path is in the cockpit using the physical switches.  Changing out computer boxes is very hard, adding software to existing flight systems is very hard because of regulations, limited computing power, vendors no longer supporting devices and shit just being really old.  Yes many aircraft already have a software box that can fly way points but almost certainly the only 'API' is physical buttons.

The other hassle is that even for a given type of aircraft there can be different manufactures under the hood who made the autopilot and flight systems or they were updated at different times.  So you may have 20 Boeing 767 you want to turn into UAV's but some run Windows XP, some run Win 95, some run Win 10, some run Mac OS8 etc.  They probably all function 98% identically at the pilot level but can be radically different under the hood where if you wanted to add some new remote pilot system you would have to make +6 unique systems.  The economics here get really stupid to make one-off custom systems to interface directly into each 'OS'; or you could make a common "robo-pilot" like in the linked article that takes advantage of where they all already are nearly identical. 

Flying a plane is much more than moving the yoke around, if you want to turn a plane into a remotely piloted aircraft (or 100% automated for that matter) you need to be able to affect all on board systems. 

"why not just gut all the electronics and put in new fancy ones that talk to everything": That would require re-certification with the FAA and that is VERY expensive.  Also your system would still need to talk with the 10 different engine control computers (among others) that are in the fleet so you would still be doing custom work on 10/20/30 year old computers/software.

Is the "robo-pilot" a good idea when building a new UAS from the ground up? No.  Could it be a good idea for retrofitting existing aircraft?  Maybe.

When the MythBusters need to make a car remotely controlled they dont go into the onboard computers, they put actuators on the wheel/brake/gas, this is the same thing. 
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #924 on: November 01, 2016, 11:10:15 AM »
This local company buys a traditional manned General Aviation model and adds the equipment for it to be optionally piloted. 

http://www.aurora.aero/centaur/
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #925 on: November 02, 2016, 10:19:22 AM »
Interesting article/video.  The company actually added employees, but they also increased production by 55%.  The areas that they added employees were forklift drivers and other positions that will most likely be automated in the future.   Their competition is probably being wiped out which is losing employees overall in the industry.  This is the wave of the future.  The future is going to be amazing.  The whole point is understanding where we are going and understanding that the laws, taxation, and benefits provided by government may need to be revamped to account for the fact that human labor will not be needed or severely limited in the future. Should those that own the companies/technologies control everything or is there a moral need to share the wealth?

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/02/robot-takeover-in-food-manufacturing-extends-to-a-delicate-job-egg-handling.html

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #926 on: November 05, 2016, 07:12:16 PM »
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/elon-musk-robots-jobs-government-181956572.html

Musk stating that ""There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation," says Musk to CNBC. "Yeah, I am not sure what else one would do. I think that is what would happen."

"People will have time to do other things, more complex things, more interesting things," says Musk. "Certainly more leisure time."

Basic Income will become a bigger topic as automation wipes out more and more jobs in the next decade. 

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #927 on: November 05, 2016, 08:22:11 PM »
I hope so.

The pain in the meantime will be unfortunate.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #928 on: November 05, 2016, 08:45:00 PM »
DeepMind, Master of Go, takes on video game Starcraft

I regularly watch professional Starcraft eSports, so I'm really looking forward to this, some day.  :D
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Metric Mouse

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #929 on: November 06, 2016, 12:51:42 AM »
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/elon-musk-robots-jobs-government-181956572.html

Musk stating that ""There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation," says Musk to CNBC. "Yeah, I am not sure what else one would do. I think that is what would happen."

"People will have time to do other things, more complex things, more interesting things," says Musk. "Certainly more leisure time."

Basic Income will become a bigger topic as automation wipes out more and more jobs in the next decade.

Such is progress. I'd like to see how he defines 'complex, interesting and lesiure' though.  Has this been true throughout history, say, in the past century and a half or so, where automation has really changed human life?  Or are we just doing different, boring, simple things with our time, having replaced work with other daily tasks that aren't strictly leisure.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #930 on: November 06, 2016, 05:41:47 AM »
I hope so.

The pain in the meantime will be unfortunate.

yes there will be a lot of pain, but i do have some issues with the fact that for a large majority it will have been somewhat self inflicted due to spending habits.  my guess is maybe 20-30% of the jobs eliminated couldnt have done anything else and were scraping by on the minimum.  but the rest will scream bloody murder while they had been a trucker pulling in over 100k and spending it all.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #931 on: November 06, 2016, 08:53:50 AM »
professional Starcraft eSports,


OMG, I remember that game, from so many years ago (I played the original a lot when it came out)
professional??
That's really a thing????
Like, people get paid to play it?


I'm also a little surprised computers can't already beat human players, just due to the speed of being able to manipulate multiple game elements.  I.e., if I have a huge colony going on, I can only select one soldier or worker or building (or group thereof) at a time, so if two or three or seven things finish what they were working on at once, I can only give each one new tasking one at a time, wasting time in a game that is all about efficiency.  How do they bring the computer to a human like level of control, so that the only difference is strategy in a real-time game?
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #932 on: November 06, 2016, 02:51:23 PM »
professional Starcraft eSports,


OMG, I remember that game, from so many years ago (I played the original a lot when it came out)
professional??
That's really a thing????
Like, people get paid to play it?


I'm also a little surprised computers can't already beat human players, just due to the speed of being able to manipulate multiple game elements.  I.e., if I have a huge colony going on, I can only select one soldier or worker or building (or group thereof) at a time, so if two or three or seven things finish what they were working on at once, I can only give each one new tasking one at a time, wasting time in a game that is all about efficiency.  How do they bring the computer to a human like level of control, so that the only difference is strategy in a real-time game?

Yep totally a thing, especially in South Korea. Think professional sports player level of fame.

Yes you can develop AI which just does thing faster, that is easy but there are still limitations on what the AI can do for a very complex game like Starcraft 2. Linky

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #933 on: November 06, 2016, 05:53:11 PM »
professional Starcraft eSports,


OMG, I remember that game, from so many years ago (I played the original a lot when it came out)
professional??
That's really a thing????
Like, people get paid to play it?

Oh yeah.  It's not a great living, but the top pros can make decent money.  It's a bit up in the air right now, as the proleague just dissolved (something that's been around 10+ years), but Starcraft has been the longest running eSport in the world, since about 1999 (and SCII, starting in 2010).

You might enjoy looking up old brood war replays on YouTube for nostalgia.  :P

Search "boxer starcraft" or "starcraft rush" and stuff like that if you have a few hours you want to waste.  :)
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #934 on: November 17, 2016, 03:34:11 PM »
http://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2016/06/30/are-we-headed-for-automated-luxury-communism/#6a48e51f43dc

https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/mar/18/fully-automated-luxury-communism-robots-employment

This is an interesting concept.  I assume there would remain certain professions that would be performed by real humans.  I don't know if this type of society would keep the concept of money as we know it.  I also suspect that it wouldn't work without some sort of population control, which would be kind of scary.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #935 on: November 17, 2016, 06:16:11 PM »
I also suspect that it wouldn't work without some sort of population control, which would be kind of scary.


Ultimately, that's going to be true no matter what - infinite growth is simply not possible.
It might not be enough forever, but free on-demand access to birth control and sterilization would go a long way, without having to mandate a China style 1-child rule.  Fully half of all pregnancies were "unplanned", and that's in an the advanced rich first world nation of the United States.


Places with significantly higher birth rates usually have some combination of needing kids to provide cheap labor to the family, using kids as a form of retirement plan, and/or a high risk that a baby won't survive to adulthood.  In a world with so much prosperity that money is obsolete, presumably all societies would be at least as advanced as America today, and if there is no longer any "3rd world", than the birth rate in currently third world nations would eventually drop to first world levels.  Add in free (and permanent if desired) birth control, that rate halves.
Half the US birth rate would be less than replacement levels, and the world population would gradually decrease.

Bonus: each person can consume more, and the world environment can still support it indefinitely, the fewer total people there are!
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Metric Mouse

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #936 on: November 18, 2016, 09:56:04 AM »
I also suspect that it wouldn't work without some sort of population control, which would be kind of scary.


Ultimately, that's going to be true no matter what - infinite growth is simply not possible.
It might not be enough forever, but free on-demand access to birth control and sterilization would go a long way, without having to mandate a China style 1-child rule.  Fully half of all pregnancies were "unplanned", and that's in an the advanced rich first world nation of the United States.


Places with significantly higher birth rates usually have some combination of needing kids to provide cheap labor to the family, using kids as a form of retirement plan, and/or a high risk that a baby won't survive to adulthood.  In a world with so much prosperity that money is obsolete, presumably all societies would be at least as advanced as America today, and if there is no longer any "3rd world", than the birth rate in currently third world nations would eventually drop to first world levels.  Add in free (and permanent if desired) birth control, that rate halves.
Half the US birth rate would be less than replacement levels, and the world population would gradually decrease.

Bonus: each person can consume more, and the world environment can still support it indefinitely, the fewer total people there are!

There's some interesting Ted Talks that speculate that 'infinite growth' of the population is unlikely to occur, and that our population is already leveling off, and will naturaly hit a cap.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #937 on: November 22, 2016, 04:10:58 AM »

Ultimately, that's going to be true no matter what - infinite growth is simply not possible.
It might not be enough forever, but free on-demand access to birth control and sterilization would go a long way, without having to mandate a China style 1-child rule.  Fully half of all pregnancies were "unplanned", and that's in an the advanced rich first world nation of the United States.


In the UK all contraception is free and on demand. Sterilisation for women is not as simple - I know someone who requested it and was told to come back in a few years, as it's irreversible and they would hate to do it on someone who changed their mind, but I'm not sure how forceful she was about it. I know lots of men (I would say most in my circle) who got / get a vasectomy (free, obvs) when their 'family is complete'.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #938 on: November 22, 2016, 09:51:56 AM »

Ultimately, that's going to be true no matter what - infinite growth is simply not possible.
It might not be enough forever, but free on-demand access to birth control and sterilization would go a long way, without having to mandate a China style 1-child rule.  Fully half of all pregnancies were "unplanned", and that's in an the advanced rich first world nation of the United States.


In the UK all contraception is free and on demand. Sterilisation for women is not as simple - I know someone who requested it and was told to come back in a few years, as it's irreversible and they would hate to do it on someone who changed their mind, but I'm not sure how forceful she was about it. I know lots of men (I would say most in my circle) who got / get a vasectomy (free, obvs) when their 'family is complete'.


And in fact it looks like the birth rate for women born in the UK (at about 1.7) is in fact lower than the US (1.9) and well below the world average (2.5)
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #940 on: December 05, 2016, 01:30:25 PM »
Amazon trying to improve self checkout.


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/05/amazon-go-store-wont-replace-humans--but-it-could-improve-dreadful-self-checkout-investor-says.html

I've been telling my wife grocery stores (and really all retail stores) should do this for years.  Of course, I hate waiting in line.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #941 on: December 05, 2016, 01:39:05 PM »
Amazon trying to improve self checkout.


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/05/amazon-go-store-wont-replace-humans--but-it-could-improve-dreadful-self-checkout-investor-says.html

I've been telling my wife grocery stores (and really all retail stores) should do this for years.  Of course, I hate waiting in line.

it will happen just a matter of changing the system thats been inplace for a long time.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #942 on: December 05, 2016, 02:14:12 PM »
Amazon trying to improve self checkout.


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/05/amazon-go-store-wont-replace-humans--but-it-could-improve-dreadful-self-checkout-investor-says.html

And the accompanying video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrmMk1Myrxc

I'm sure this is in no way related to the recent push to increase minimum wage of unskilled labor...
« Last Edit: December 05, 2016, 04:49:09 PM by bryan995 »

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #943 on: December 05, 2016, 10:51:08 PM »
Sometimes the solution to too much technology

involves going back to nature

and using it...

to destroy technology

:-)

http://www.popsci.com/eagles-attack-drones-at-police-command
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #944 on: December 05, 2016, 10:56:59 PM »
Guys, seriously, just relax about the robots. Drink some wine. Enjoy yourselves. Before an AI creates nanofactories that pull our atoms apart from our bodies.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #945 on: December 05, 2016, 11:12:00 PM »
Guys, seriously, just relax about the robots. Drink some wine. Enjoy yourselves. Before an AI creates nanofactories that pull our atoms apart from our bodies.

I was eagerly awaiting your contribution to this thread. Wine != Rum. Just sayin.

Sometimes the solution to too much technology

involves going back to nature

and using it...

to destroy technology

:-)

http://www.popsci.com/eagles-attack-drones-at-police-command

That was so fucking awesome. Thanks.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #946 on: December 07, 2016, 04:01:08 AM »
Sometimes the solution to too much technology

involves going back to nature

and using it...

to destroy technology

:-)

http://www.popsci.com/eagles-attack-drones-at-police-command

I watched this video twice just to see the bald eagle scenes.
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #947 on: December 07, 2016, 08:33:11 AM »
Sometimes the solution to too much technology

involves going back to nature

and using it...

to destroy technology

:-)

http://www.popsci.com/eagles-attack-drones-at-police-command

Those are pretty small drones.  I would be worried about the birds with bigger ones.  I think it would be pretty epic if someone had drones at the White House and a swarm of Bald Eagles came out and took them out, preferably with patriotic music playing.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #948 on: December 07, 2016, 02:54:06 PM »
Sometimes the solution to too much technology

involves going back to nature

and using it...

to destroy technology

:-)

http://www.popsci.com/eagles-attack-drones-at-police-command

Those are pretty small drones.  I would be worried about the birds with bigger ones.  I think it would be pretty epic if someone had drones at the White House and a swarm of Bald Eagles came out and took them out, preferably with patriotic music playing.
the "America Fuck Yea" song from the movie team america comes to mind.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #949 on: December 07, 2016, 03:18:09 PM »
Comments from UTC ceo to Jim Crammer re Carrier Jobs/Trump/Mexico.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceo-united-technologies-just-let-231538059.html

TLDR: Mexico has quality workers, US workers dont want the Carrier jobes.  We will replace the US workers with robots.
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