Author Topic: Robots and their impact on the future  (Read 363345 times)

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5302
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #850 on: October 14, 2016, 02:54:46 PM »
Also, using a handheld device (phone etc) is illegal in the UK. The penalties are not as strong as for drink driving but I think they should be and will only increase.


Handheld devices are illegal in most states here too.  The problem is, the danger isn't from having a hand off the wheel (most cars are now automatics, but when they were stick shifts no one was crashing because of having a hand off the wheel!)
The danger is from the distraction of the conversation itself.  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/29/AR2010012900053.html handsfree devices are just as bad as, yet bluetooth phone connections are actually built in to cars.  It would be like a car coming with a built in beer cooler.

More precisely: A beer cooler with a straw that leads to the driver's mouth so that his hands would still be able to remain on the steering wheel.  . . . that solves the problem entirely!

The '57 Cadillac had a built in bar.  A 60-year old car could be pretty mustachian. Base price looks like $30k though.

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 27197
  • Age: -999
  • Location: Traveling the World
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #851 on: October 14, 2016, 07:13:03 PM »
My grandmother just died at the age of 93.  She was raised plucking chickens and building fires and carrying buckets of water from a well, when women weren't allowed to go to school.  She died in the age of self driving cars and tinder swiping and a female presidential candidate and fucking robots on other planets. 

How different do you think the world will be by the time your kids are that age?

We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with two kids.
If you want to know more about me, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (occasionally) blog at AdventuringAlong.com.
You can also read my forum "Journal."

PizzaSteve

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 505
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #852 on: October 15, 2016, 10:33:21 AM »
+1.  I think I read long ago that even in olden times humans "commuted" and that with our new tech we have increased the distance we commute rather than reducing the amount of time spent commuting.

Also I am fairly sure I am in worse physical shape since buying a home with a yard I maintain.  There are plenty of weekends where after a number of hours of yard work I am to tired to lift weights, or I dont go for a bike ride because I want to start on the yard work before it gets to hot or before the sun goes down.  Is this worth a 4k$ machine.  No.  But way back when homes did not come with dishwashers or hotwater heaters, maybe some day homes will come with a yard-bot built into the home and home price.   It is 100% possible to be in better physical shape while using tools designed to save labor-these let you shift how you use your time and energy.

Ditto to the Sol kudos.

In terms of commute times, I currently work in a field where this is studied extensively and interestingly, commutes to work have been relatively stable going deeply back into history.  Whether walking, on horse, streetcar, rail, or driving...humans seem to build their communities with a consistent distribution of housing cost vs income from wages vs time separation from employment.

Some factors to consider are whether the wealthy want to live near the poor, whether we preserve our social class structures that enforce that, and the amount if prestige associated with space.  Think NYC vs the Hamptons vs the Midwest.  In farm country people create space from neighbors and work, by choice. In NYC, fewer options exist, but people choose between a cramped studio closer to work or more space out in the commuter rail....
« Last Edit: October 15, 2016, 10:38:37 AM by PizzaSteve »

theadvicist

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1455
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #853 on: October 17, 2016, 03:59:31 AM »
Also, using a handheld device (phone etc) is illegal in the UK. The penalties are not as strong as for drink driving but I think they should be and will only increase.


Handheld devices are illegal in most states here too.  The problem is, the danger isn't from having a hand off the wheel (most cars are now automatics, but when they were stick shifts no one was crashing because of having a hand off the wheel!)
The danger is from the distraction of the conversation itself.  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/29/AR2010012900053.html handsfree devices are just as bad as, yet bluetooth phone connections are actually built in to cars.  It would be like a car coming with a built in beer cooler.


Well, in the UK, most cars are still manual, so that would mean potentially two hands off the wheel! Whilst I do think the conversation might be the significant distraction, and handsfree doesn't solve that, not allowing hand held devices does mean that people can't text and drive. Easier to prosecute, easier to spot and police etc. There's more to phones in driver's hands than conversations.

I can't wait for self-driving cars and for this all to be moot. Just like I can't imagine sending my husband down a mine everyday knowing he might not come out, I hope our grandchildren can't comprehend that we were willing to risk our lives driving.

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5302
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #854 on: October 17, 2016, 07:42:04 PM »
Also, using a handheld device (phone etc) is illegal in the UK. The penalties are not as strong as for drink driving but I think they should be and will only increase.


Handheld devices are illegal in most states here too.  The problem is, the danger isn't from having a hand off the wheel (most cars are now automatics, but when they were stick shifts no one was crashing because of having a hand off the wheel!)
The danger is from the distraction of the conversation itself.  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/29/AR2010012900053.html handsfree devices are just as bad as, yet bluetooth phone connections are actually built in to cars.  It would be like a car coming with a built in beer cooler.


Well, in the UK, most cars are still manual, so that would mean potentially two hands off the wheel! Whilst I do think the conversation might be the significant distraction, and handsfree doesn't solve that, not allowing hand held devices does mean that people can't text and drive. Easier to prosecute, easier to spot and police etc. There's more to phones in driver's hands than conversations.

I can't wait for self-driving cars and for this all to be moot. Just like I can't imagine sending my husband down a mine everyday knowing he might not come out, I hope our grandchildren can't comprehend that we were willing to risk our lives driving.

This is an interesting analogy.  I hope the future is this bright!

Schaefer Light

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1085
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #855 on: October 18, 2016, 06:23:07 AM »
I can't wait for self-driving cars and for this all to be moot. Just like I can't imagine sending my husband down a mine everyday knowing he might not come out, I hope our grandchildren can't comprehend that we were willing to risk our lives driving.
I think the difference is that driving a car can be (and is) a pleasurable experience for many people.  I doubt too many workers enjoy going into a mine, though.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7333
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #856 on: October 18, 2016, 08:31:25 AM »
I think the difference is that driving a car can be (and is) a pleasurable experience for many people.  I doubt too many workers enjoy going into a mine, though.

Sure, but riding horses was fun too.  And some people still do it for fun.  But it's no longer a required life skill, and horse riding fatalities are WAY down as a result.

AlanStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1777
  • Age: 39
  • Location: South East Virginia
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #857 on: October 18, 2016, 10:17:58 AM »
I think the difference is that driving a car can be (and is) a pleasurable experience for many people.  I doubt too many workers enjoy going into a mine, though.

Sure, but riding horses was fun too.  And some people still do it for fun.  But it's no longer a required life skill, and horse riding fatalities are WAY down as a result.

Do the Amish have cup holders in there buggies so they can take a morning coffee on the commute? /joking

2lazy2retire

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 292
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #858 on: October 18, 2016, 01:09:05 PM »
I can't wait for self-driving cars and for this all to be moot. Just like I can't imagine sending my husband down a mine everyday knowing he might not come out, I hope our grandchildren can't comprehend that we were willing to risk our lives driving.
I think the difference is that driving a car can be (and is) a pleasurable experience for many people.  I doubt too many workers enjoy going into a mine, though.

About as many who think driving is pleasurable I guess, roll on driver less UBER

Bakari

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1783
  • Age: 38
  • Location: Oakland, CA
  • Veggie Powered Handyman
    • The Flamboyant Introvert
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #859 on: October 18, 2016, 05:23:27 PM »
Do the Amish have cup holders in there buggies so they can take a morning coffee on the commute? /joking


don't know, but in Indiana they have hitching posts in the parking lot of WalMart for the Mennonites and other Luddites who shopped there.
Whom the Amish sometimes refer to as "NRA" - for "Not Really Amish"

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5302
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #860 on: October 18, 2016, 08:13:17 PM »
Do the Amish have cup holders in there buggies so they can take a morning coffee on the commute? /joking


don't know, but in Indiana they have hitching posts in the parking lot of WalMart for the Mennonites and other Luddites who shopped there.
Whom the Amish sometimes refer to as "NRA" - for "Not Really Amish"

Are they closer or further to the door than the bike racks?

brooklynmoney

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 420
  • Location: Crooklyn
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #861 on: October 18, 2016, 09:45:48 PM »
Did anyone see the SNL skit on robots this weekend? I feel like it so sadly but so accurately portrays the stae of robots and AI today.

tomsang

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1085
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #862 on: October 18, 2016, 09:56:51 PM »

Grid

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 463
  • Age: 5
  • I kept dreaming of a world I thought I'd never see
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #863 on: October 19, 2016, 12:33:28 AM »
Do the Amish have cup holders in there buggies so they can take a morning coffee on the commute? /joking


don't know, but in Indiana they have hitching posts in the parking lot of WalMart for the Mennonites and other Luddites who shopped there.
Whom the Amish sometimes refer to as "NRA" - for "Not Really Amish"

Are they closer or further to the door than the bike racks?

That's the real question!  Haha.

Schaefer Light

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1085
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #864 on: October 19, 2016, 06:39:00 AM »
I can't wait for self-driving cars and for this all to be moot. Just like I can't imagine sending my husband down a mine everyday knowing he might not come out, I hope our grandchildren can't comprehend that we were willing to risk our lives driving.
I think the difference is that driving a car can be (and is) a pleasurable experience for many people.  I doubt too many workers enjoy going into a mine, though.

About as many who think driving is pleasurable I guess, roll on driver less UBER
Not in NASCAR country.  Seriously, driving a scenic road can be a lot of fun as long as there's not too much traffic.  Even if I didn't have to go anywhere, I'd still get out for a drive (during non-peak hours) a few times a week.  I also like the feeling of being in control of the vehicle.  There's a reason why people get into motorsports.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2016, 06:42:07 AM by Schaefer Light »

tomsang

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1085
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #865 on: October 19, 2016, 10:24:53 AM »
I can't wait for self-driving cars and for this all to be moot. Just like I can't imagine sending my husband down a mine everyday knowing he might not come out, I hope our grandchildren can't comprehend that we were willing to risk our lives driving.
I think the difference is that driving a car can be (and is) a pleasurable experience for many people.  I doubt too many workers enjoy going into a mine, though.

About as many who think driving is pleasurable I guess, roll on driver less UBER
Not in NASCAR country.  Seriously, driving a scenic road can be a lot of fun as long as there's not too much traffic.  Even if I didn't have to go anywhere, I'd still get out for a drive (during non-peak hours) a few times a week.  I also like the feeling of being in control of the vehicle.  There's a reason why people get into motorsports.

I could see there being closed roads or tracks for manually driven cars. Similar to horse trails.  People can ride their horses on designated trails, but can not ride them on freeways for safety.

AlanStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1777
  • Age: 39
  • Location: South East Virginia
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #866 on: October 19, 2016, 10:51:57 AM »
Robot pilots may someday fly passenger and cargo planes

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ROBOT_PILOT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-10-18-14-26-17

Did not read the full article but it is talking about replacing one of the two pilots.  I am not sure this is a good idea unless the AI would be as good at cross checking the human as the current other human is.  Before many actions a pilot will confirm with the other pilot that they are about to flip the correct switch.  Also pilots have been VERY opposed to any form of video recording in the cockpit so they might not want this as it would likely keep records of what they did.  I think it is also sort of assumed that large cargo planes will move towards being unmanned even to the point of retrofitting existing fleets but passengers would not be comfortable with no one up front.

2lazy2retire

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 292
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #867 on: October 19, 2016, 12:29:39 PM »
Robot pilots may someday fly passenger and cargo planes

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ROBOT_PILOT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-10-18-14-26-17

Did not read the full article but it is talking about replacing one of the two pilots.  I am not sure this is a good idea unless the AI would be as good at cross checking the human as the current other human is.  Before many actions a pilot will confirm with the other pilot that they are about to flip the correct switch.  Also pilots have been VERY opposed to any form of video recording in the cockpit so they might not want this as it would likely keep records of what they did.  I think it is also sort of assumed that large cargo planes will move towards being unmanned even to the point of retrofitting existing fleets but passengers would not be comfortable with no one up front.

Funny when we talk about replacing pilots with AI, meanwhile the aviation business are not capable of tracking a flight path in real time - can't find a plane after 2 f@cking years, maybe get that sorted first ;).

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5302
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #868 on: October 19, 2016, 12:38:44 PM »
Robot pilots may someday fly passenger and cargo planes

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ROBOT_PILOT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-10-18-14-26-17

Did not read the full article but it is talking about replacing one of the two pilots.  I am not sure this is a good idea unless the AI would be as good at cross checking the human as the current other human is.  Before many actions a pilot will confirm with the other pilot that they are about to flip the correct switch.  Also pilots have been VERY opposed to any form of video recording in the cockpit so they might not want this as it would likely keep records of what they did.  I think it is also sort of assumed that large cargo planes will move towards being unmanned even to the point of retrofitting existing fleets but passengers would not be comfortable with no one up front.

Funny how people whose jobs are about to be replaced by robots fight against the idea..

AlanStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1777
  • Age: 39
  • Location: South East Virginia
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #869 on: October 19, 2016, 12:45:35 PM »
...
Funny when we talk about replacing pilots with AI, meanwhile the aviation business are not capable of tracking a flight path in real time - can't find a plane after 2 f@cking years, maybe get that sorted first ;).

https://flightaware.com/live/map  There is some delay in the feed and sometimes tracks get dropped.  But this is more a function of the piping from ground based reporting stations -> FAA computers -> FA.com or terrain blocking line of sight.

ender

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4306
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #870 on: October 19, 2016, 12:49:45 PM »
A large percentage of flying already is done by autopilots anyways.

Not to mention any micro optimizations happening.

2lazy2retire

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 292
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #871 on: October 19, 2016, 01:01:50 PM »
...
Funny when we talk about replacing pilots with AI, meanwhile the aviation business are not capable of tracking a flight path in real time - can't find a plane after 2 f@cking years, maybe get that sorted first ;).

https://flightaware.com/live/map  There is some delay in the feed and sometimes tracks get dropped.  But this is more a function of the piping from ground based reporting stations -> FAA computers -> FA.com or terrain blocking line of sight.

Ah that pesky piping, that would explain why there was bit of confusion as wheter the plane was in Kazakhstan or the south pacific :)

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5302
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #872 on: October 19, 2016, 02:50:42 PM »
...
Funny when we talk about replacing pilots with AI, meanwhile the aviation business are not capable of tracking a flight path in real time - can't find a plane after 2 f@cking years, maybe get that sorted first ;).

https://flightaware.com/live/map  There is some delay in the feed and sometimes tracks get dropped.  But this is more a function of the piping from ground based reporting stations -> FAA computers -> FA.com or terrain blocking line of sight.

Ah that pesky piping, that would explain why there was bit of confusion as wheter the plane was in Kazakhstan or the south pacific :)

Yes, it is reasonable to track every single aircraft in the planet in real-time, with a zero error rate.

Love Flightaware though.

Bakari

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1783
  • Age: 38
  • Location: Oakland, CA
  • Veggie Powered Handyman
    • The Flamboyant Introvert
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #873 on: October 19, 2016, 08:09:16 PM »
A large percentage of flying already is done by autopilots anyways.

Not to mention any micro optimizations happening.


technically, I'm pretty sure the computer does 100% of the actual steering in large aircraft. "Fly by wire".  None of the controls are connceted to the alerions and rudder in anyway, the pilot inputs merely tell the computer what the goal is, the computer decides how to achieve it.
Our midsize coast guard boats are the same way, there is no throttle and no tiller, just a couple of joysticks and a computer controlled electro-hydraulic steering system.




Clearly we have the technology already today to make it 100% AI, considering all the fully autonomous drones already in existence.  Just a difference in size, mainly.  That, and perception.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2016, 08:11:27 PM by Bakari »

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7854
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #874 on: October 20, 2016, 05:45:51 AM »
https://www.tesla.com/autopilot/?utm_campaign=GL_AP_101916&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social

i dont remember who described the world in which cars arent owned and just summoned when needed.  but Tesla appears to be on the edge of making this happen.  They even are going to muscle out uber and lyft it appears by not allowing you to use their self driving function on any network other than the tesla network. 

It truly is amazing to me what one company with a vision has done to get us miles ahead of where we were just 4 years ago.  i mean to think you can use self drive tech to go anywhere in the country for road trips etc. from 2 years from now on is pretty incredible. 

on the note of the topic of this thread this will be completely devastating to the entire transportation industry as we know it. 

cab driver - gone
limo drivers - gone
black car service drivers - gone
uber drivers - gone
lyft drivers - gone
delivery drivers - gone to some extent (we cant expect people to walk out of their front door to pick up chinese or pizza thats just incredibly too much work /s)
bus driver - gone

drunk driving - gone


tomsang

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1085
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #875 on: October 20, 2016, 08:16:21 AM »
https://www.tesla.com/autopilot/?utm_campaign=GL_AP_101916&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social

i dont remember who described the world in which cars arent owned and just summoned when needed.  but Tesla appears to be on the edge of making this happen.  They even are going to muscle out uber and lyft it appears by not allowing you to use their self driving function on any network other than the tesla network. 

It truly is amazing to me what one company with a vision has done to get us miles ahead of where we were just 4 years ago.  i mean to think you can use self drive tech to go anywhere in the country for road trips etc. from 2 years from now on is pretty incredible. 

on the note of the topic of this thread this will be completely devastating to the entire transportation industry as we know it. 

cab driver - gone
limo drivers - gone
black car service drivers - gone
uber drivers - gone
lyft drivers - gone
delivery drivers - gone to some extent (we cant expect people to walk out of their front door to pick up chinese or pizza thats just incredibly too much work /s)
bus driver - gone

drunk driving - gone

That is where Amazon's drone technology will take the pizza or package from the main vehicle to the front door.  All payment will be taken care of so there will not be a need for a person delivering the pizza or anything else.  Most likely the main vehicle will have extra condiments in case you failed to order them online.

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7854
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #876 on: October 20, 2016, 08:22:48 AM »
https://www.tesla.com/autopilot/?utm_campaign=GL_AP_101916&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social


delivery drivers - gone to some extent (we cant expect people to walk out of their front door to pick up chinese or pizza thats just incredibly too much work /s)


That is where Amazon's drone technology will take the pizza or package from the main vehicle to the front door.  All payment will be taken care of so there will not be a need for a person delivering the pizza or anything else.  Most likely the main vehicle will have extra condiments in case you failed to order them online.

good call.  i mean we have to create a living wage vs creating worthless work.  i've come around on this idea as the tech keeps coming out.  just think of the cab drivers in NYC thats 52k people out of work now. and we havent even gotten into uber or the black car services that would no longer need operators.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7333
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #877 on: October 20, 2016, 10:52:47 AM »
just think of the cab drivers in NYC thats 52k people out of work now.

Adding 52k people to the unemployment rolls in NYC will barely make a dent in the unemployment rate in a city that big, plus self-driving cars will create a bunch of new jobs to replace some (but not all) of the ones that were lost.  At least in the short term some humans will still have to manage the fleet, clean the vehicles inside and out, do the maintenance and refueling, spot check quality control by going for rides, and a thousand other little things that are currently done by drivers but that an AI won't be able to manage yet.

And as an added bonus, there are a few hundred pedestrians and cyclists struck and killed by vehicles in NYC every year, including a bunch by taxi drivers.  You might argue that replacing human drivers will cause a few thousand people to need to find new jobs, but it will also cause a few hundred people to not be accidentally murdered.  Maybe that's a fair trade.

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7854
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #878 on: October 20, 2016, 11:47:17 AM »
just think of the cab drivers in NYC thats 52k people out of work now.

Adding 52k people to the unemployment rolls in NYC will barely make a dent in the unemployment rate in a city that big, plus self-driving cars will create a bunch of new jobs to replace some (but not all) of the ones that were lost.  At least in the short term some humans will still have to manage the fleet, clean the vehicles inside and out, do the maintenance and refueling, spot check quality control by going for rides, and a thousand other little things that are currently done by drivers but that an AI won't be able to manage yet.

And as an added bonus, there are a few hundred pedestrians and cyclists struck and killed by vehicles in NYC every year, including a bunch by taxi drivers.  You might argue that replacing human drivers will cause a few thousand people to need to find new jobs, but it will also cause a few hundred people to not be accidentally murdered.  Maybe that's a fair trade.

i know its a small percentage but thats just one small sector being automated.  yes it will be forthe overall good of humankind but doesnt take back from the fact that as we make baby steps into automation we need to be making baby steps into how we are compensating those with out a job, or one day the world of have nots will be much larger than the world of haves and anarchy will reign.

acroy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1705
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Dallas TX
    • SWAMI
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #879 on: October 20, 2016, 12:21:35 PM »
How about robots and their impact on the present?
Nice new BMW's being manufactured by the finest German craftsmen, er, robots!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpwkT2zV9H0

tomsang

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1085
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #880 on: October 20, 2016, 02:29:52 PM »
A long, but great video about AI/technology and the impact on professionals. 

Lots of great thoughts on morality and ethics as it relates to technology and the future.  The Q&A is interesting as well at about 45 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp5_1QPLps0


theadvicist

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1455
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #881 on: October 21, 2016, 04:02:36 AM »

Adding 52k people to the unemployment rolls in NYC will barely make a dent in the unemployment rate in a city that big, plus self-driving cars will create a bunch of new jobs to replace some (but not all) of the ones that were lost.  At least in the short term some humans will still have to manage the fleet, clean the vehicles inside and out, do the maintenance and refueling, spot check quality control by going for rides, and a thousand other little things that are currently done by drivers but that an AI won't be able to manage yet.


I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I don't think refueling will be an issue for long - electric cars will just plug themselves in.

davisgang90

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1140
  • Location: Roanoke, VA
    • Photography by Rich Davis
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #882 on: October 21, 2016, 04:46:58 AM »
A long, but great video about AI/technology and the impact on professionals. 

Lots of great thoughts on morality and ethics as it relates to technology and the future.  The Q&A is interesting as well at about 45 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp5_1QPLps0
One of the first things the guy introducing says that he learned from the book is that "We are safe, because we are creative, dexterous and do many things that machines won't do".  If he's joking it is black comedy.  If he is not joking he is obtuse!

Edited to add.
Looks like is was the former, black comedy!
« Last Edit: October 21, 2016, 04:49:53 AM by davisgang90 »

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7854
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #883 on: October 21, 2016, 06:10:38 AM »

Adding 52k people to the unemployment rolls in NYC will barely make a dent in the unemployment rate in a city that big, plus self-driving cars will create a bunch of new jobs to replace some (but not all) of the ones that were lost.  At least in the short term some humans will still have to manage the fleet, clean the vehicles inside and out, do the maintenance and refueling, spot check quality control by going for rides, and a thousand other little things that are currently done by drivers but that an AI won't be able to manage yet.


I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I don't think refueling will be an issue for long - electric cars will just plug themselves in.

tesla already has stations where the cars get plugged in autonomously

2lazy2retire

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 292
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #884 on: October 21, 2016, 06:16:52 AM »
just think of the cab drivers in NYC thats 52k people out of work now.

Adding 52k people to the unemployment rolls in NYC will barely make a dent in the unemployment rate in a city that big, plus self-driving cars will create a bunch of new jobs to replace some (but not all) of the ones that were lost.  At least in the short term some humans will still have to manage the fleet, clean the vehicles inside and out, do the maintenance and refueling, spot check quality control by going for rides, and a thousand other little things that are currently done by drivers but that an AI won't be able to manage yet.

And as an added bonus, there are a few hundred pedestrians and cyclists struck and killed by vehicles in NYC every year, including a bunch by taxi drivers.  You might argue that replacing human drivers will cause a few thousand people to need to find new jobs, but it will also cause a few hundred people to not be accidentally murdered.  Maybe that's a fair trade.

Now you have put a bunch of doctors and nurses out of work also - have you heart man :)
« Last Edit: October 21, 2016, 07:22:53 AM by 2lazy2retire »

tomsang

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1085
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #885 on: October 21, 2016, 09:26:04 AM »
just think of the cab drivers in NYC thats 52k people out of work now.

Adding 52k people to the unemployment rolls in NYC will barely make a dent in the unemployment rate in a city that big, plus self-driving cars will create a bunch of new jobs to replace some (but not all) of the ones that were lost.  At least in the short term some humans will still have to manage the fleet, clean the vehicles inside and out, do the maintenance and refueling, spot check quality control by going for rides, and a thousand other little things that are currently done by drivers but that an AI won't be able to manage yet.

And as an added bonus, there are a few hundred pedestrians and cyclists struck and killed by vehicles in NYC every year, including a bunch by taxi drivers.  You might argue that replacing human drivers will cause a few thousand people to need to find new jobs, but it will also cause a few hundred people to not be accidentally murdered.  Maybe that's a fair trade.

Now you have put a bunch of doctors and nurses out of work also - have you heart man :)

Earlier on in this thread we discussed that autonomous cars would cause less accidents and therefore there would be less organs to harvest.  So unless we can grow organs in the lab or 3d printer, we will have an organ donor problem.  Black market for organs may be the way to go for families that have no ability to make a living and are starving to death.

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7854
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #886 on: October 21, 2016, 09:47:53 AM »
just think of the cab drivers in NYC thats 52k people out of work now.

Adding 52k people to the unemployment rolls in NYC will barely make a dent in the unemployment rate in a city that big, plus self-driving cars will create a bunch of new jobs to replace some (but not all) of the ones that were lost.  At least in the short term some humans will still have to manage the fleet, clean the vehicles inside and out, do the maintenance and refueling, spot check quality control by going for rides, and a thousand other little things that are currently done by drivers but that an AI won't be able to manage yet.

And as an added bonus, there are a few hundred pedestrians and cyclists struck and killed by vehicles in NYC every year, including a bunch by taxi drivers.  You might argue that replacing human drivers will cause a few thousand people to need to find new jobs, but it will also cause a few hundred people to not be accidentally murdered.  Maybe that's a fair trade.

Now you have put a bunch of doctors and nurses out of work also - have you heart man :)

Earlier on in this thread we discussed that autonomous cars would cause less accidents and therefore there would be less organs to harvest.  So unless we can grow organs in the lab or 3d printer, we will have an organ donor problem.  Black market for organs may be the way to go for families that have no ability to make a living and are starving to death.

seems like survival of the fittest minus the black market part(richest).  who would have thought all these tech advancements would lead us back towards darwinism.

AlanStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1777
  • Age: 39
  • Location: South East Virginia
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #887 on: October 21, 2016, 09:55:57 AM »
just think of the cab drivers in NYC thats 52k people out of work now.

Adding 52k people to the unemployment rolls in NYC will barely make a dent in the unemployment rate in a city that big, plus self-driving cars will create a bunch of new jobs to replace some (but not all) of the ones that were lost.  At least in the short term some humans will still have to manage the fleet, clean the vehicles inside and out, do the maintenance and refueling, spot check quality control by going for rides, and a thousand other little things that are currently done by drivers but that an AI won't be able to manage yet.

And as an added bonus, there are a few hundred pedestrians and cyclists struck and killed by vehicles in NYC every year, including a bunch by taxi drivers.  You might argue that replacing human drivers will cause a few thousand people to need to find new jobs, but it will also cause a few hundred people to not be accidentally murdered.  Maybe that's a fair trade.

Now you have put a bunch of doctors and nurses out of work also - have you heart man :)

Earlier on in this thread we discussed that autonomous cars would cause less accidents and therefore there would be less organs to harvest.  So unless we can grow organs in the lab or 3d printer, we will have an organ donor problem.  Black market for organs may be the way to go for families that have no ability to make a living and are starving to death.

Organ trafficking is already a real thing.  Was there a European country that recently changed to opt-out of there national organ donation system; where the US is opt-in?

Bakari

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1783
  • Age: 38
  • Location: Oakland, CA
  • Veggie Powered Handyman
    • The Flamboyant Introvert
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #888 on: October 21, 2016, 10:40:06 AM »
And as an added bonus, there are a few hundred pedestrians and cyclists struck and killed by vehicles in NYC every year, including a bunch by taxi drivers.  You might argue that replacing human drivers will cause a few thousand people to need to find new jobs, but it will also cause a few hundred people to not be accidentally murdered.  Maybe that's a fair trade.

Now you have put a bunch of doctors and nurses out of work also - have you heart man :)


Remember the Watson computer that could beat the best human Jepordy! players?
While it can be adapted to many things, one of the first goals and real world applications was/is assisting human medical experts in making diagnosis and treatment recommendations.
Right now of course it is always with human oversight, and humans make the final call, just like the first driver AI always have a human with a steering wheel.  Its mostly because we aren't comfortable with it.  Give it 2 or 3 years, Watson will replace all advice nurses.




come to think of it, it might just be able to figure out alternatives to organ replacement better than humans, thereby reducing the need for a steady supply of trauma victims
Not that that wouldn't be a worthwhile trade off anyway - the number of people who die in car accidents far exceeds the number who die in car accidents, were registered as organ donors, had their vital organs survive the crash intact, were in a place where organs could be successfully harvested in time, were a match for someone in need, and had the transplant go successfully.


On average, 82 people die each day in car crashes (US), while 18 die from not getting a transplant.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2016, 10:46:47 AM by Bakari »

JumpInTheFIRE

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 94
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #889 on: October 21, 2016, 11:56:16 AM »
just think of the cab drivers in NYC thats 52k people out of work now.

Adding 52k people to the unemployment rolls in NYC will barely make a dent in the unemployment rate in a city that big, plus self-driving cars will create a bunch of new jobs to replace some (but not all) of the ones that were lost.  At least in the short term some humans will still have to manage the fleet, clean the vehicles inside and out, do the maintenance and refueling, spot check quality control by going for rides, and a thousand other little things that are currently done by drivers but that an AI won't be able to manage yet.

And as an added bonus, there are a few hundred pedestrians and cyclists struck and killed by vehicles in NYC every year, including a bunch by taxi drivers.  You might argue that replacing human drivers will cause a few thousand people to need to find new jobs, but it will also cause a few hundred people to not be accidentally murdered.  Maybe that's a fair trade.

Well, in August NYC had a labor force of 4.1M and 223,177 unemployed, for a 5.4% unemployment rate.  If you added 52k people to the unemployed side, it would cause the rate to jump to 6.6%.  A 1.2% increase in unemployment seems significant to me, and that's just for the taxi drivers -- there are many other driving jobs that are threatened as well.

Data from https://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/LSLAUS.shtm

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5302
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #890 on: October 21, 2016, 09:08:59 PM »
just think of the cab drivers in NYC thats 52k people out of work now.

Adding 52k people to the unemployment rolls in NYC will barely make a dent in the unemployment rate in a city that big, plus self-driving cars will create a bunch of new jobs to replace some (but not all) of the ones that were lost.  At least in the short term some humans will still have to manage the fleet, clean the vehicles inside and out, do the maintenance and refueling, spot check quality control by going for rides, and a thousand other little things that are currently done by drivers but that an AI won't be able to manage yet.

I would like to imagine that a vehicle that is capable of finding my driveway and getting me to the theater on-time will be able to manage docking itself in a charging station. There are fucking vacuum cleaners that can manage that as we speak. As a fully automated fleet would require far fewer cars than currently on the road, there would be less need for cleaners and mechanics than there is currently. Almost no jobs would be 'created' by removing drivers and reducing the number of cars on the road.  Are their quality control people that take random rides in taxis now?

And 52K people (in one city) is not a small number. Figuring unemployment benefits of $20K per year - that's 1 Billion dollars of budget that needs to be covered, not to mention the loss of tax base.

Revolutionize is right...

manandsea

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 2
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #891 on: October 21, 2016, 11:31:51 PM »
It will be a very very long process for robots to actually replace most common jobs. and we have at least 2-3 generations of time for the society to adapt. New jobs will come out, and wealth distribution will shift towards to new jobs.

matchewed

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4260
  • Location: CT
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #892 on: October 22, 2016, 06:28:44 AM »
It will be a very very long process for robots to actually replace most common jobs. and we have at least 2-3 generations of time for the society to adapt. New jobs will come out, and wealth distribution will shift towards to new jobs.

I think that you may be wrong on this one.

ender

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4306
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #893 on: October 22, 2016, 08:34:38 AM »
It will be a very very long process for robots to actually replace most common jobs. and we have at least 2-3 generations of time for the society to adapt. New jobs will come out, and wealth distribution will shift towards to new jobs.

I think that you may be wrong on this one.

Yeah. Are there new jobs opening up that need a human more than anything else?

No. Most new jobs now require a human and a brain.

A lot of the reason why jobs kept replacing the lost jobs in the past, say the industrial revolution, is that when jobs (for example the need for everyone to be on a farm) converted to more automated activities, there were still many jobs where the primary need was a human. Where the skillset of that human was less important.

That is not the case now. If you are an unskilled human, there are not many new jobs and new industries being created for you. In fact most of your options are being actively removed.

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 27197
  • Age: -999
  • Location: Traveling the World
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #894 on: October 22, 2016, 04:08:49 PM »
It will be a very very long process for robots to actually replace most common jobs. and we have at least 2-3 generations of time for the society to adapt. New jobs will come out, and wealth distribution will shift towards to new jobs.

I think that you may be wrong on this one.

Yeah. Are there new jobs opening up that need a human more than anything else?

No. Most new jobs now require a human and a brain.

A lot of the reason why jobs kept replacing the lost jobs in the past, say the industrial revolution, is that when jobs (for example the need for everyone to be on a farm) converted to more automated activities, there were still many jobs where the primary need was a human. Where the skillset of that human was less important.

That is not the case now. If you are an unskilled human, there are not many new jobs and new industries being created for you. In fact most of your options are being actively removed.
I'd argue the 2-3 generations was the part of the post I most disagreed with.

Old time is still a flying.
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with two kids.
If you want to know more about me, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (occasionally) blog at AdventuringAlong.com.
You can also read my forum "Journal."

Bakari

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1783
  • Age: 38
  • Location: Oakland, CA
  • Veggie Powered Handyman
    • The Flamboyant Introvert
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #895 on: October 22, 2016, 06:18:02 PM »
It will be a very very long process for robots to actually replace most common jobs. and we have at least 2-3 generations of time for the society to adapt. New jobs will come out, and wealth distribution will shift towards to new jobs.

I think that you may be wrong on this one.

Yeah. Are there new jobs opening up that need a human more than anything else?

No. Most new jobs now require a human and a brain.

A lot of the reason why jobs kept replacing the lost jobs in the past, say the industrial revolution, is that when jobs (for example the need for everyone to be on a farm) converted to more automated activities, there were still many jobs where the primary need was a human. Where the skillset of that human was less important.

That is not the case now. If you are an unskilled human, there are not many new jobs and new industries being created for you. In fact most of your options are being actively removed.


I'm not convinced that all the old jobs were ever replaced.
If, in farming days, people start helping contribute at age 7 or 8, and work until they are 70+ or whenever they can no longer walk, and they are working 12 hours a day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year, then, compared to today were people work from maybe 20 to 60, 40 hours a week, that means 1/3 as many jobs will support the population.


At the same time, 14 million people on SSI (under 65) aren't even counted as "unemployed", because you have to be actively seeking a job to be unemployed. The rate is officially 5%, but in actuality over a third (37%) of all adults don't have jobs (includes retirees, early retirees, stay-at-home parents, students, etc).
I have no source to back it up, but my guess would be that a few generations ago the labor force participation rate would have been closer to 80-90%.


So that means another 1/2 of jobs disappear and are never replaced.


It may just LOOK like new jobs have always come up, because our standards of employment have changed.  It wasn't by coincidence that the 40 hour work week movement came after the industrial revolution and finally became law immideatly after the Great Depression

davisgang90

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1140
  • Location: Roanoke, VA
    • Photography by Rich Davis

matchewed

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4260
  • Location: CT
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #897 on: October 23, 2016, 06:35:24 AM »
It will be a very very long process for robots to actually replace most common jobs. and we have at least 2-3 generations of time for the society to adapt. New jobs will come out, and wealth distribution will shift towards to new jobs.

I think that you may be wrong on this one.

Yeah. Are there new jobs opening up that need a human more than anything else?

No. Most new jobs now require a human and a brain.

A lot of the reason why jobs kept replacing the lost jobs in the past, say the industrial revolution, is that when jobs (for example the need for everyone to be on a farm) converted to more automated activities, there were still many jobs where the primary need was a human. Where the skillset of that human was less important.

That is not the case now. If you are an unskilled human, there are not many new jobs and new industries being created for you. In fact most of your options are being actively removed.
I'd argue the 2-3 generations was the part of the post I most disagreed with.

Old time is still a flying.
Yeah I'm not sure how the wealth distribution will hash out. Too many variables for me to really form a solid opinion on. I can see it going so many ways. But the 2-3 generations? Probably less than 1 is closer to the truth.

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5302
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #898 on: October 23, 2016, 09:08:09 PM »
Yeah I'm not sure how the wealth distribution will hash out. Too many variables for me to really form a solid opinion on. I can see it going so many ways. But the 2-3 generations? Probably less than 1 is closer to the truth.

The good part about this gamble is that we will be alive to see if you're right or wrong!

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7854
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #899 on: October 25, 2016, 01:45:40 PM »
'Driverless' beer run; Bud makes shipment with self-driving truck

Quote
Anheuser-Busch hauled a trailer loaded with beer 120 miles in an autonomous-drive truck, completing what's believed to be the first commercial shipment by a self-driving vehicle.

279Billion miles are driven by trucks annually.  at 28cents per mile for the low end of the avg truck driver pay. that pulls 78B dollars out of the hands op "professional drivers"  which according the article there are 3.6MM class 8 trucks if we assume only one driver per truck(which is probably low) thats over 1% of the population now jobless and those 78B are going to uber and the companies no longer using drivers b/c i'm sure the autonoumous truck will come at a discount to the human driver.