Author Topic: Robots and their impact on the future  (Read 167456 times)

Metric Mouse

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #700 on: June 30, 2016, 07:48:51 AM »
AI beats fighter pilot:

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/06/ai-downs-fighter-pilot.html

The universe of things humans can do better than software/robotics is rapidly declining each day

That's incredible. Chess or Go is one thing - piloting an aircraft in combat situations is an incredible leap forward.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #701 on: June 30, 2016, 08:01:00 AM »
AI beats fighter pilot:

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/06/ai-downs-fighter-pilot.html

The universe of things humans can do better than software/robotics is rapidly declining each day

That's incredible. Chess or Go is one thing - piloting an aircraft in combat situations is an incredible leap forward.

In a simulation.  But yeah, super cool.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #702 on: June 30, 2016, 08:08:10 AM »
AI beats fighter pilot:

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/06/ai-downs-fighter-pilot.html

The universe of things humans can do better than software/robotics is rapidly declining each day

That's incredible. Chess or Go is one thing - piloting an aircraft in combat situations is an incredible leap forward.

In a simulation.  But yeah, super cool.

I thought that too. How much can a computer 'game' a computer? And then my overactive imagination gives me nightmares where Yamaha's Motobot is chasing me down the street on an R1...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4asCK8yamb0
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #703 on: June 30, 2016, 08:26:22 AM »
It sounds like a big part of the AIs advantage was in reaction time. From the article

Quote
...an average human visual reaction time of 0.15 to 0.30 seconds..

So in some ways piloting a fighter plane is playing to the same strength of AI as High Frequency Trading. In these types of roles, the computer doesn't have to be smarter than a human being, or cheaper than a human being, if it can usually guess the same answer as a human but do it a split second faster, over time it's going to win by a lot. It's still early in the morning for me so I cannot think of a lot of other examples of these types of roles but I'm sure many more are out there.

And it sounds like in this case the performance gap is only gonna get bigger once they start building planes solely for AI and aren't designed with the constraint of having to keep G forces low enough to not kill a human pilot.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #704 on: June 30, 2016, 12:46:23 PM »
I expected all this to be some stupid setup in Microsoft flight sim where the AI was given perfect global knowledge and just out fast-twitched a human and then the media exaggerated a headline.  This was not the case.  What they did was actually more impressive than what the headline indicated.

They are using a relatively "simple" AI setup and Fuzzy systems, this means that the AI is working in therms that are relatable to a human, ie the AI natively works with how "defensive" or "offensive" it should be or what are its current tactical goals. 

The engagements were not just 1-1 Top Gun style where the AI pulled 9-gs to win, the engagements were also beyond visual range.  The UAV the AI was flying was also flight dynamics-wise comparable to its adversaries aircraft, the AI was using shorter ranged weapons also the linked paper below says that realistic sensor models and sensor fuson was done, sensors are a big thing here.  The program was funded by AFRL (http://www.wpafb.af.mil/AFRL/). 

I strongly recommenced you read the full write up and not just the headlines.
http://www.omicsgroup.org/journals/genetic-fuzzy-based-artificial-intelligence-for-unmanned-combat-aerialvehicle-control-in-simulated-air-combat-missions-2167-0374-1000144.pdf

While the AI running at high frame rates definitely helped (the authors say so) the AI "thought", it did not just brute force 10,000,000 possible outcomes and pick the best (Chess AI historically has done a brute force method). 

Re: "its in a simulation": we can make damn good aircraft simulations and it sounds like these people made an honest attempt to make a good one for them to fight within.

TLDNR: What they did is probably cooler and way better than what you think they did based on headlines.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #705 on: June 30, 2016, 04:10:50 PM »
sobering news :(
https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/tragic-loss


By coincidence, I was pondering the liability question this morning.

In our overly litigious society, who's gonna be left holding the bag when someone sues?

by default, I guess the manufacturer or AI supplier will be part of the lawsuit.

Should they be held liable or not?

I guess it may be for the courts to decide.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #706 on: July 01, 2016, 04:30:12 AM »
sobering news :(
https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/tragic-loss


By coincidence, I was pondering the liability question this morning.

In our overly litigious society, who's gonna be left holding the bag when someone sues?

by default, I guess the manufacturer or AI supplier will be part of the lawsuit.

Should they be held liable or not?

I guess it may be for the courts to decide.

This made the morning news in the UK today.  I am sure that luddites will cite it as the reason driverless cars are unsafe.

I am sure most people on here will appreciate, however, that though once in over 130 million miles the computer missed a light coloured trailer against a bright sky, in 130 million miles with a human behind the wheel, far more things have been missed by motorist's vision.

Hell, at the weekend, I almost backed into my own husband, and had it not been for the warning beeps I would have (albeit at 5 miles an hour).

It's very sad news. I still believe, in the long run, driverless cars will be much safer, though never infallible.

Liability is a difficult one. Without the autopilot engaged, it sounds as though the outcome would have been the same. Neither the auto-pilot nor the driver saw the trailer, one would assume, as no brakes were applied at all. So I don't see how it's any different to a normal road accident, and unless it was a  mechanical failure, the manufacturer would not usually be held responsible. Also, it sounds like the person pulling the trailer pulled out without enough time to clear the carriageway. The right of way was to the Tesla, in my understanding, and if you are going to cross a carriageway - especially pulling a trailer - you need to be sure you are across it before anything already on the road arrives at that point.

But as I said, very sad news for everyone involved.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #707 on: July 01, 2016, 05:38:19 AM »
re Tesla crash:  I wonder/hope that the NTSB will take a page out of the FAA's hand book and record this incident as something that other manufactures will have to test to and be expected to demonstrate that they can identify and resolve the situation.  This can get into big government creating stupid rules but going back to the FAA the US has insanely few commercial airplane fatalities in part because regulations make airlines & pilots learn from past incidents. 
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Metric Mouse

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #708 on: July 01, 2016, 06:15:53 PM »
re Tesla crash:  I wonder/hope that the NTSB will take a page out of the FAA's hand book and record this incident as something that other manufactures will have to test to and be expected to demonstrate that they can identify and resolve the situation.  This can get into big government creating stupid rules but going back to the FAA the US has insanely few commercial airplane fatalities in part because regulations make airlines & pilots learn from past incidents.

Probably. Would be an applicable system - very few accidents, high risk environment, ever improving standards.  I read there was a portable DVD player in the car; investigators are trying to determine if it was on at the time of the crash. This could explain why no breaks were applied.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2016, 09:19:42 PM by Metric Mouse »
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #709 on: July 01, 2016, 07:06:22 PM »
re Tesla crash:  I wonder/hope that the NTSB will take a page out of the FAA's hand book and record this incident as something that other manufactures will have to test to and be expected to demonstrate that they can identify and resolve the situation.  This can get into big government creating stupid rules but going back to the FAA the US has insanely few commercial airplane fatalities in part because regulations make airlines & pilots learn from past incidents.

Probably. Would be an applicable system - very few accidents, high risk environment, ever improving standards.  I read there was a portable DVD player in the car; investigators are trying to determine if it was on at the time of the crash. This could explain why no breaks were applied.

Engineers aren't allowed to take breaks either....

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #711 on: July 07, 2016, 05:52:49 AM »
Uber Hires a Robot To Patrol Its Parking Lot and It's Way Cheaper Than a Security Guard

Wow. It definitely looks like a page was taken out of Bill Gates' book. Don't sell it, license it (or in this case, rent it).
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #713 on: July 07, 2016, 06:42:39 PM »
I sometimes think that AI is a 'flavor of the month' topic; intriguing speculation.  There have been some impressive tangible advances (self driving cars, and now self driving cars that crash from time to time), but it is a long road to serfdom...

On the flip side, consumer-ready VR will probably come back in to 'flavor of the month' this fall.  AI obviously has a bigger (unknowable) potential (like nano tech and genetics), but VR will get humanity close to the ER / Matrix 'affordable life of ease and servitude' sooner.  For the next generation, I worry more about the bio-exploits exposed by VR and what a disruption that will be, than I worry about the sci-fi dystopian transformations some predict from advances in AI. 

But that's just me extrapolating the present.  'Real history' is made in leaps that aren't readily predicted.  Maybe unlimited cheap clean energy transforms the planet, or Trump becomes president... it's always fun to be an armchair futurist, or follow the 'professionals' http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2016/06/kevin_kelly_on_1.html
« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 08:30:28 PM by EscapeVelocity2020 »
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #714 on: July 07, 2016, 07:58:23 PM »
, I worry more about the bio-exploits exposed by VR and what a disruption that will, than I worry about the sci-fi dystopian transformations some predict from advances in AI. 


I imagine there's likely to be some overlap there.
If there is ever a VR that's realistic enough that one can't easily tell the difference from that and RL, seems likely that AI will be involved in creating the environment, and that AI research will be involved in making the interface (we'd have to have a decent model of how the brain and neurons work to blend them seemless into hardware)
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EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #715 on: July 07, 2016, 08:34:08 PM »
, I worry more about the bio-exploits exposed by VR and what a disruption that will, than I worry about the sci-fi dystopian transformations some predict from advances in AI. 


I imagine there's likely to be some overlap there.
If there is ever a VR that's realistic enough that one can't easily tell the difference from that and RL, seems likely that AI will be involved in creating the environment, and that AI research will be involved in making the interface (we'd have to have a decent model of how the brain and neurons work to blend them seemless into hardware)

That's probably the scariest version of AI yet, being that we are such limited species (although we do tend to think quite highly of ourselves with our Donald Trump billionaire presidential candidates and such :)
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theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #716 on: July 08, 2016, 01:44:00 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/08/police-bomb-robot-explosive-killed-suspect-dallas


(On my phone and can't get it to link. If anyone is able to fix it please go ahead).

I have no comment except that everything about this situation is sad and scary.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #717 on: July 08, 2016, 05:25:58 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/08/police-bomb-robot-explosive-killed-suspect-dallas


(On my phone and can't get it to link. If anyone is able to fix it please go ahead).

I have no comment except that everything about this situation is sad and scary.

And that is the first thing I read about this Dallas situation. I am not a fan of the police doing this, but now I need to look more into this.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #718 on: July 09, 2016, 10:13:15 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/08/police-bomb-robot-explosive-killed-suspect-dallas


(On my phone and can't get it to link. If anyone is able to fix it please go ahead).

I have no comment except that everything about this situation is sad and scary.

And that is the first thing I read about this Dallas situation. I am not a fan of the police doing this, but now I need to look more into this.

I had not heard about the robot aspect of this.  My first thought is that if police do this once or twice every few years in similar situations it is probably fine but if it becomes standard to use a robot blow up a homes door before a search warrant that probably is a problem. 

Read Peter Singers Wired for War several years ago, highly recommend.  Might be a little dated now but very intelligent discussion of war and 'robots'.
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #719 on: August 25, 2016, 12:15:05 PM »
Interesting information on the Universal Basic Income and Robots.  I think we will see more discussions of this in the next 3-5 years.

http://futurism.com/images/universal-basic-income-answer-automation/

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #720 on: August 25, 2016, 12:31:15 PM »
Interesting information on the Universal Basic Income and Robots.  I think we will see more discussions of this in the next 3-5 years.

http://futurism.com/images/universal-basic-income-answer-automation/

As much as I hate infographics to get points across, they are effective. My brain is currently dealing with some 4 hour-work-week-esque, combined with polyculture, combined with Universal Basic Income in order to make something awesome.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #721 on: August 25, 2016, 12:39:10 PM »
As much as I hate infographics to get points across, they are effective. My brain is currently dealing with some 4 hour-work-week-esque, combined with polyculture, combined with Universal Basic Income in order to make something awesome.

Actually, I had the same thought.  The information was not earth shattering, but the story through the infographics actually helped. 

theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #722 on: August 26, 2016, 05:23:05 AM »
Interesting that the Swiss electorate voted against UBI.

Since reading this thread I have started noting how many people I know have the kind of 'non-jobs' we were talking about earlier. You know, "Deputy Vice Engagement Facilitator" and things.

Seriously, a large percentage of my friends are not really achieving or producing anything, they are just busy being busy. It's interesting to me that corporations are prepared to pay for it.

I suppose people expect more. At my old school, for example, where we just had a school nurse who's room you lay down in until a parent collected you, know they have a 'pastoral support worker' and two nurses. There are also more stratas of teachers - heads of year, coordinator of pastoral care etc. Where we just had head and deputy head of school.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #723 on: August 26, 2016, 08:46:41 AM »
Interesting that the Swiss electorate voted against UBI.

Since reading this thread I have started noting how many people I know have the kind of 'non-jobs' we were talking about earlier. You know, "Deputy Vice Engagement Facilitator" and things.

Seriously, a large percentage of my friends are not really achieving or producing anything, they are just busy being busy. It's interesting to me that corporations are prepared to pay for it.

I suppose people expect more. At my old school, for example, where we just had a school nurse who's room you lay down in until a parent collected you, know they have a 'pastoral support worker' and two nurses. There are also more stratas of teachers - heads of year, coordinator of pastoral care etc. Where we just had head and deputy head of school.

There will inevitably be some who object in principle to the idea of getting "something for nothing", but I think one big concern in Switzerland was that a UBI would attract a flood of economic migrants.

Quote
Luzi Stamm, a member of parliament for the right-wing Swiss People's Party, opposed the idea. "Theoretically, if Switzerland were an island, the answer is yes. But with open borders, it's a total impossibility, especially for Switzerland, with a high living standard. If you would offer every individual a Swiss amount of money, you would have billions of people who would try to move into Switzerland."
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theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #724 on: August 26, 2016, 08:59:23 AM »
I read that quote too, but I don't really understand the economic migrant argument. Surely you can just limit who receives it? Or is the point that it then won't be 'universal' and therefore won't achieve the basic aims? Yeah, I'm guessing that's it now I've had words with myself. It will just create a new class of poor immigrants instead.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #725 on: August 26, 2016, 09:48:11 AM »
i dont get how this doesnt just lead to inflation.  how can you take what was 0 dollars as the bottom income and raise it to 10000 dollars and not create artifical inflation.  demand for goods will go up for those earning under 100k b/c now they have more disposable income.  and those without income will now have income to buy things.  therefore driving the price of goods with larger demand b/c now everyone has more disposable income. except the top end making over 100k AGI.  can some explain how pumping more money into an economy to increase spending power doesnt result in inflation.  i'm not an economist. but to collect the revenue to pay out such a wage would be through some kind of tax which would then drive up the cost of whatever that tax was.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #726 on: August 26, 2016, 01:07:08 PM »
i dont get how this doesnt just lead to inflation.  how can you take what was 0 dollars as the bottom income and raise it to 10000 dollars and not create artifical inflation.  demand for goods will go up for those earning under 100k b/c now they have more disposable income.  and those without income will now have income to buy things.  therefore driving the price of goods with larger demand b/c now everyone has more disposable income. except the top end making over 100k AGI.  can some explain how pumping more money into an economy to increase spending power doesnt result in inflation.  i'm not an economist. but to collect the revenue to pay out such a wage would be through some kind of tax which would then drive up the cost of whatever that tax was.

There probably would be some inflation, but for the most part you are just redistributing from the 1% down to the 99%.  Many of these folks would be on welfare and other programs that are paid for by the 1%.  Liquidity in the system tends to create more wealth overall.  When I get a raise, it goes into my investment accounts.  When someone who is just getting by gets $10k, they most likely will spend the money on necessities and other goods which stimulates the economy. 

The real issue is in the coming decade(s) we are going to have a large chunk of people that have zero skills to do anything productive.  Driving a truck, moving a box from one end of a warehouse to the other, riveting on a plane, doing legal research, preparing tax returns, etc. will be completely automated.  So either you have to support those people or find a way to dispose of them.  The UBI, provides everyone a safety net. 

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #727 on: August 26, 2016, 01:22:51 PM »
For at least a decade we are going to have people sitting in the driverless cars and trucks, ready to take control if necessary. They will also need to prevent vandalism and clean up after the messy passengers and the drunk passengers that vomit or have accidents. This will be a new minimum wage job.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #728 on: August 26, 2016, 01:27:19 PM »
i dont get how this doesnt just lead to inflation.  how can you take what was 0 dollars as the bottom income and raise it to 10000 dollars and not create artifical inflation.  demand for goods will go up for those earning under 100k b/c now they have more disposable income.  and those without income will now have income to buy things.  therefore driving the price of goods with larger demand b/c now everyone has more disposable income. except the top end making over 100k AGI.  can some explain how pumping more money into an economy to increase spending power doesnt result in inflation.  i'm not an economist. but to collect the revenue to pay out such a wage would be through some kind of tax which would then drive up the cost of whatever that tax was.

there is an answer written on reddit, but it sounds inconclusive.
where UBI has been tried, there has not been massive inflation.
https://www.reddit.com/r/basicincome/wiki/index#wiki_wouldn.27t_basic_income_just_cause_inflation.3F

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #729 on: August 26, 2016, 01:57:17 PM »
i dont get how this doesnt just lead to inflation.  how can you take what was 0 dollars as the bottom income and raise it to 10000 dollars and not create artifical inflation.  demand for goods will go up for those earning under 100k b/c now they have more disposable income.  and those without income will now have income to buy things.  therefore driving the price of goods with larger demand b/c now everyone has more disposable income. except the top end making over 100k AGI.  can some explain how pumping more money into an economy to increase spending power doesnt result in inflation.  i'm not an economist. but to collect the revenue to pay out such a wage would be through some kind of tax which would then drive up the cost of whatever that tax was.

there is an answer written on reddit, but it sounds inconclusive.
where UBI has been tried, there has not been massive inflation.
https://www.reddit.com/r/basicincome/wiki/index#wiki_wouldn.27t_basic_income_just_cause_inflation.3F

i'm not saying massive inflation in the short term but over time one would think inflation would occur
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boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #730 on: August 26, 2016, 01:59:45 PM »
i dont get how this doesnt just lead to inflation.  how can you take what was 0 dollars as the bottom income and raise it to 10000 dollars and not create artifical inflation.  demand for goods will go up for those earning under 100k b/c now they have more disposable income.  and those without income will now have income to buy things.  therefore driving the price of goods with larger demand b/c now everyone has more disposable income. except the top end making over 100k AGI.  can some explain how pumping more money into an economy to increase spending power doesnt result in inflation.  i'm not an economist. but to collect the revenue to pay out such a wage would be through some kind of tax which would then drive up the cost of whatever that tax was.

There probably would be some inflation, but for the most part you are just redistributing from the 1% down to the 99%.  Many of these folks would be on welfare and other programs that are paid for by the 1%.  Liquidity in the system tends to create more wealth overall.  When I get a raise, it goes into my investment accounts.  When someone who is just getting by gets $10k, they most likely will spend the money on necessities and other goods which stimulates the economy. 

The real issue is in the coming decade(s) we are going to have a large chunk of people that have zero skills to do anything productive.  Driving a truck, moving a box from one end of a warehouse to the other, riveting on a plane, doing legal research, preparing tax returns, etc. will be completely automated.  So either you have to support those people or find a way to dispose of them.  The UBI, provides everyone a safety net.

tax returns should go away and we should go to a sales tax based economy and eliminate an entire branch of the govt.  that alone may create enough savings for the govt to fund this entire UBI plan. but if they ever make it and there is an income limit to receive it you can bet in FIRE ill try to get under that to take free money.

edit ... mybad it is estimated to cost the economy 409B so about half what the estimated UBI needs to be.  the actually organization costs 12.5B to run.  the rest is a cost to the economy b/c of a ridiculously complex system.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2016, 02:01:43 PM by boarder42 »
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #733 on: August 26, 2016, 08:10:08 PM »
In case some of you dont read slashdot

...you should fix that.  :)
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #734 on: August 27, 2016, 04:13:26 PM »

tax returns should go away and we should go to a sales tax based economy and eliminate an entire branch of the govt.  that alone may create enough savings for the govt to fund this entire UBI plan. but if they ever make it and there is an income limit to receive it you can bet in FIRE ill try to get under that to take free money.

edit ... mybad it is estimated to cost the economy 409B so about half what the estimated UBI needs to be.  the actually organization costs 12.5B to run.  the rest is a cost to the economy b/c of a ridiculously complex system.

Sales tax based taxes is very regressive.  It would be a boon for the 1%.  Income inequality would increase exponentially.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #735 on: August 27, 2016, 04:47:32 PM »

tax returns should go away and we should go to a sales tax based economy and eliminate an entire branch of the govt.  that alone may create enough savings for the govt to fund this entire UBI plan. but if they ever make it and there is an income limit to receive it you can bet in FIRE ill try to get under that to take free money.

edit ... mybad it is estimated to cost the economy 409B so about half what the estimated UBI needs to be.  the actually organization costs 12.5B to run.  the rest is a cost to the economy b/c of a ridiculously complex system.

Sales tax based taxes is very regressive.  It would be a boon for the 1%.  Income inequality would increase exponentially.

You might be right. I haven't crunched the numbers, or extrapolated out to think more of it. I do like the idea of taxes being based on consumption, though.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #736 on: August 27, 2016, 05:19:46 PM »

tax returns should go away and we should go to a sales tax based economy and eliminate an entire branch of the govt.  that alone may create enough savings for the govt to fund this entire UBI plan. but if they ever make it and there is an income limit to receive it you can bet in FIRE ill try to get under that to take free money.

edit ... mybad it is estimated to cost the economy 409B so about half what the estimated UBI needs to be.  the actually organization costs 12.5B to run.  the rest is a cost to the economy b/c of a ridiculously complex system.

Sales tax based taxes is very regressive.  It would be a boon for the 1%.  Income inequality would increase exponentially.

You might be right. I haven't crunched the numbers, or extrapolated out to think more of it. I do like the idea of taxes being based on consumption, though.

I vote income based. Help adjust for rampart income inequality in this country.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #737 on: August 29, 2016, 07:39:22 AM »

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #738 on: August 29, 2016, 07:57:12 AM »
AI beats fighter pilot:

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/06/ai-downs-fighter-pilot.html

The universe of things humans can do better than software/robotics is rapidly declining each day

That's incredible. Chess or Go is one thing - piloting an aircraft in combat situations is an incredible leap forward.

In a simulation.  But yeah, super cool.

I thought that too. How much can a computer 'game' a computer? And then my overactive imagination gives me nightmares where Yamaha's Motobot is chasing me down the street on an R1...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4asCK8yamb0

My last job was building combat flight simulators for various military uses around the world.  Robots beating a pilot aren't surprising to me.  I'd argue that it's simpler to build a good fighter pilot simulator than it is to drive around on roads.  There's very little to run into up in the air, it's not as crowded.  An AI controlled plane can pull higher Gs without blacking out too.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #739 on: August 29, 2016, 03:35:35 PM »
In case some of you dont read slashdot

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/08/26/amazon-is-piloting-teams-with-a-30-hour-work-week/
I wonder how those employees feel about the 25% pay cut.

Pretty sure you volunteer for the 75% hours, 75% pay (but full benefits) in this pilot.  So they probably feel pretty good?
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #740 on: August 30, 2016, 11:57:43 AM »
http://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-hate-interacting-with-people-2016-8?r=UK&IR=T

"Millennials like not seeing people," Puzder said. "I've been inside restaurants where we've installed ordering kiosks ... and I've actually seen young people waiting in line to use the kiosk where there's a person standing behind the counter, waiting on nobody."

My teenage son is like this. He would rather not deal with the incompetent humans.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #741 on: August 30, 2016, 01:52:53 PM »
I don't find the humans incompetent, it's more that they want me to interact with them. No, I dont want to talk about the weather. Ugh.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #742 on: August 30, 2016, 02:38:54 PM »
In case some of you dont read slashdot

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/08/26/amazon-is-piloting-teams-with-a-30-hour-work-week/
I wonder how those employees feel about the 25% pay cut.

Pretty sure you volunteer for the 75% hours, 75% pay (but full benefits) in this pilot.  So they probably feel pretty good?
I didn't realize they were letting people volunteer for this.  I do wonder what will happen in the long run, though.  If Amazon sees this as a positive, I have a feeling they're going to make a lot of folks go to this schedule (and reduce their pay).

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #743 on: August 30, 2016, 02:57:48 PM »
In case some of you dont read slashdot

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/08/26/amazon-is-piloting-teams-with-a-30-hour-work-week/
I wonder how those employees feel about the 25% pay cut.

Pretty sure you volunteer for the 75% hours, 75% pay (but full benefits) in this pilot.  So they probably feel pretty good?
I didn't realize they were letting people volunteer for this.  I do wonder what will happen in the long run, though.  If Amazon sees this as a positive, I have a feeling they're going to make a lot of folks go to this schedule (and reduce their pay).

And if people don't want that, they'll go elsewhere.  And if Amazon is losing good devs, they'll do what they need to in order to be competitive.

I think this is the opposite of what you're thinking--Amazon isn't doing this to save money--they're doing it as a BENEFIT for people who want a better work-life balance.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #744 on: August 30, 2016, 02:59:23 PM »
http://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-hate-interacting-with-people-2016-8?r=UK&IR=T

"Millennials like not seeing people," Puzder said. "I've been inside restaurants where we've installed ordering kiosks ... and I've actually seen young people waiting in line to use the kiosk where there's a person standing behind the counter, waiting on nobody."

My teenage son is like this. He would rather not deal with the incompetent humans.

Classic millennial click bait.

I understand the sentiment though. It is nothing against humans. It's just easier to convey what you want to a machine a lot of the time.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #745 on: August 31, 2016, 02:03:11 PM »
Just read the article. It says that 30% of millenials would rather go through the drive through than order through a person. I'm confused. Now, I haven't been through a drive-thru in a long while, but isn't there a person with a headset?
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #746 on: September 01, 2016, 09:53:15 AM »

tax returns should go away and we should go to a sales tax based economy and eliminate an entire branch of the govt.  that alone may create enough savings for the govt to fund this entire UBI plan. but if they ever make it and there is an income limit to receive it you can bet in FIRE ill try to get under that to take free money.

edit ... mybad it is estimated to cost the economy 409B so about half what the estimated UBI needs to be.  the actually organization costs 12.5B to run.  the rest is a cost to the economy b/c of a ridiculously complex system.

Sales tax based taxes is very regressive.  It would be a boon for the 1%.  Income inequality would increase exponentially.

You might be right. I haven't crunched the numbers, or extrapolated out to think more of it. I do like the idea of taxes being based on consumption, though.

I vote income based. Help adjust for rampart income inequality in this country.


Wealth based would go even farther in that regard, wealth inequality is larger than income
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #747 on: September 01, 2016, 12:43:35 PM »
When I was in Norway, I became fond of the ideal of taxing things you don't want citizens to do too much of (like cigarette taxes, soda tax, fast food tax, etc.).  In theory, it should be used to equalize externalities (like taxing fuel to help offset the costs to deal with polluition, wear and tear on roads, etc.).  But like all good ideas, government can't be trusted to even do a half-reasonable job.  Next best thing is taxing consumption.  I struggle to understand the point of taxing earned income, other than it being an established practice.  But like many vestigal practices, this one is ripe for an overhaul.  Maybe this 'Robotic Revolution' (or the workplace revolution in general, with more freelancers, micro-business hustlers, on-demand / Uber-type 'employees') will be the catalyst. 
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #748 on: September 01, 2016, 02:24:30 PM »

tax returns should go away and we should go to a sales tax based economy and eliminate an entire branch of the govt.  that alone may create enough savings for the govt to fund this entire UBI plan. but if they ever make it and there is an income limit to receive it you can bet in FIRE ill try to get under that to take free money.

edit ... mybad it is estimated to cost the economy 409B so about half what the estimated UBI needs to be.  the actually organization costs 12.5B to run.  the rest is a cost to the economy b/c of a ridiculously complex system.

Sales tax based taxes is very regressive.  It would be a boon for the 1%.  Income inequality would increase exponentially.

You might be right. I haven't crunched the numbers, or extrapolated out to think more of it. I do like the idea of taxes being based on consumption, though.

I vote income based. Help adjust for rampart income inequality in this country.


Wealth based would go even farther in that regard, wealth inequality is larger than income

Interesting point. Tax the 'stache - this would probably work better than pure income based. Thank you.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #749 on: September 01, 2016, 03:04:04 PM »
In case some of you dont read slashdot

...you should fix that.  :)

I do now. Thanks.
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