Author Topic: Robots and their impact on the future  (Read 226564 times)

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #550 on: February 27, 2016, 02:11:39 PM »
Tesla test drive article.  Crazy how fast autonomous cars are coming along. 

"Tesla CEO Elon Musk said earlier this year he believed the company would be able to produce vehicles that could be "summoned" across the country without a driver, even stopping to charge along the way, in just two to three years. Notably, however, Musk said the feat would require a next-generation suite of sensors with more redundancies built in."

Also crazy cool how one day your car can't drive autonomously and the next day it is taking you on 60 mile drive.  Downloading features seems so foreign for a car. 
"Paired with adaptive cruise control, which was already active in Model S, the software update made it possible for Tesla vehicles to essentially drive themselves on the highway"

How many years until Uber doesn't need drivers? Taxis, truck drivers, UPS, etc.  I believe that this will have a huge impact on the workforce in the next decade. 

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/27/tesla-drives-itself-61-miles-were-closer-to-autono.aspx

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #551 on: March 09, 2016, 07:35:53 PM »
Robots will kill the gig economy within 20 years.
"The study predicts that logistics companies — from start-ups like Uber to tech giants like Amazon — will soon replace drivers and delivery workers with autonomous vehicles and drones. Highly skilled workers, such as lawyers and accountants — no longer guaranteed jobs at big firms — will be the new gig economy workers, the study finds."

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/09/how-robots-will-kill-the-gig-economy.html


Grid

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #552 on: March 09, 2016, 10:49:21 PM »
Pulled from one of the off-topic threads (4 matches to go!):

So this happened today...

As someone who used to play go, I am amazed. This happened way quicker than I thought. I honestly thought we were years from developing AI that could win against a top go player. Curious to see how the next four games go. /pun

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Grid

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #553 on: March 11, 2016, 08:13:03 PM »
Now 2-0 AlphaGo (link here), with another game to start in an hour (link here).

History in the making!
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #554 on: March 12, 2016, 09:22:51 AM »
Now 2-0 AlphaGo (link here), with another game to start in an hour (link here).

History in the making!

Wow!  That is crazy that AI is crushing in GO

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #555 on: March 12, 2016, 10:12:21 AM »

Tabaxus

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #556 on: March 12, 2016, 02:18:52 PM »
And this is why I want FIRE money ASAP... before the machines take er jerbs.

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #557 on: March 16, 2016, 06:37:52 PM »
How long until fast food restaurants are totally automated?  I would think within 15 years.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/carl-jr-ceo-predicts-future-203203237.html

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #558 on: March 17, 2016, 06:12:24 AM »
How long until fast food restaurants are totally automated?  I would think within 15 years.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/carl-jr-ceo-predicts-future-203203237.html

yahoo really upped there game on that one. 

More interesting than automated burger flippers I think might be connectivity of peoples personal fitness and diet trackers with the kiosk menu.  What if only options that were within your daily calorie budget were shown, or complied to your specific dietary restrictions (no pork)?  And when you ordered the tracker was updated by the kiosk with what you ordered and presumably consumed? 

Not that most of us eat fast food often, then there is the issue of having to give up all your privacy to make not over eating easier...
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #559 on: March 17, 2016, 08:03:43 AM »
How long until fast food restaurants are totally automated?  I would think within 15 years.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/carl-jr-ceo-predicts-future-203203237.html

I'd say less than that (unless you meant all fast food restaurants). I'd say automation will be prevalent within 5 years in this field, possibly less.
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #560 on: March 18, 2016, 01:44:41 PM »
How long until fast food restaurants are totally automated?  I would think within 15 years.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/carl-jr-ceo-predicts-future-203203237.html

I'd say less than that (unless you meant all fast food restaurants). I'd say automation will be prevalent within 5 years in this field, possibly less.

I was thinking that a majority of fast food restaurants would be nearly all automated in 15 years.  Obviously, automation is currently in fast food restaurants with great success.  I think the timeline is in the 5-15 year period, where we see major changes to the industry.

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #561 on: March 18, 2016, 01:47:57 PM »
Just so people don't think that AI/automation and robots is for the uneducated workers. 

http://www.businessinsider.com/high-salary-jobs-will-be-automated-2016-3

"By 2026, Nadler thinks somewhere between 33% and 50% of finance employees will lose their jobs to automation software. As a result, mega-firms like Goldman Sachs will be getting "significantly smaller.""

"The minutes-long search "‘would have taken days, probably 40 man-hours, from people who were making an average of $350,000 to $500,000 a year," says Nadler."



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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #562 on: March 18, 2016, 02:35:53 PM »
Just so people don't think that AI/automation and robots is for the uneducated workers. 

http://www.businessinsider.com/high-salary-jobs-will-be-automated-2016-3

"By 2026, Nadler thinks somewhere between 33% and 50% of finance employees will lose their jobs to automation software. As a result, mega-firms like Goldman Sachs will be getting "significantly smaller.""

"The minutes-long search "‘would have taken days, probably 40 man-hours, from people who were making an average of $350,000 to $500,000 a year," says Nadler."

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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #563 on: March 30, 2016, 09:13:40 AM »
Great article that sums up why I started this thread and why I believe it is an important topic for society.

http://techcrunch.com/2016/03/29/will-capitalism-survive-the-robot-revolution/?ncid=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Techcrunch+%28TechCrunch%29

"However, back to reality here in 2016: Whatever economic system does prevail in the next 25 years, it won’t be like anything we thought of before. Karl Marx and Adam Smith simply did not account for what indefinite robot labor would mean to a new world increasingly reliant on microprocessors and 1s and 0s for its every step forward."
« Last Edit: March 30, 2016, 09:21:28 AM by tomsang »

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #564 on: March 30, 2016, 09:37:42 AM »
Good article. Pretty well thought out, and it verbalized a few things we've mentioned in this thread. I think the author touched on the most important part of how we move forward right at the end of the article:

Quote
Whatever happens, it’s probably best to keep an open mind about the future and new economic models.

All too often (and I think this is part of why I'm so sick of most rhetoric I hear these days) there are base things that don't get questioned. Not because they are the best (or even applicable sometimes), but because it's the way it's always been done. In the article, he talked about how capitalism 'won' based on the cold war. On the rare occasion people think about it, all too often it's dismissed since it was already challenged. I could easily draw parallels to Mustachianism as the mindset that we need moving forward. Part of it is all about challenging assumptions, and now we are in a position where we are going to have to. I just hope that we don't screw things up too much before we realize that (we being humanity).
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Guses

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #565 on: March 30, 2016, 10:51:01 AM »
Just so people don't think that AI/automation and robots is for the uneducated workers. 

http://www.businessinsider.com/high-salary-jobs-will-be-automated-2016-3

"By 2026, Nadler thinks somewhere between 33% and 50% of finance employees will lose their jobs to automation software. As a result, mega-firms like Goldman Sachs will be getting "significantly smaller.""

"The minutes-long search "‘would have taken days, probably 40 man-hours, from people who were making an average of $350,000 to $500,000 a year," says Nadler."

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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #566 on: April 05, 2016, 11:12:20 AM »
5 million jobs displaced by 2020.  We are not talking about 30 years in the future, we are talking about 4 years from now.  The future is going to be pretty amazing if you have the investments in the companies displacing all of these workers.  Those with no skills, it may be challenging if we don't have a basic income system or some other program to help those that are not needed.

"Related: Technology could kill 5 million jobs by 2020
 
There's enormous sums of money being poured into such emerging financial technology. Investments in fintech has exploded to $19 billion last year from $1.8 billion in 2010, according to Citi and CB Insights. More than 70% of this investment is focused on making the customer experience better."

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/04/investing/bank-jobs-dying-automation-citigroup/index.html


theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #567 on: April 07, 2016, 04:38:42 AM »
5 million jobs displaced by 2020.  We are not talking about 30 years in the future, we are talking about 4 years from now.  The future is going to be pretty amazing if you have the investments in the companies displacing all of these workers. Those with no skills, it may be challenging if we don't have a basic income system or some other program to help those that are not needed.

"Related: Technology could kill 5 million jobs by 2020
 
There's enormous sums of money being poured into such emerging financial technology. Investments in fintech has exploded to $19 billion last year from $1.8 billion in 2010, according to Citi and CB Insights. More than 70% of this investment is focused on making the customer experience better."

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/04/investing/bank-jobs-dying-automation-citigroup/index.html

I've asked this before, but anyone have any tips of companies to invest in?

Every automation company I have researched (Vanderlande, Knapp, Schaefer, Witron) is in private ownership.

AlanStache

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #568 on: April 07, 2016, 06:47:13 AM »
5 million jobs displaced by 2020.  We are not talking about 30 years in the future, we are talking about 4 years from now.  The future is going to be pretty amazing if you have the investments in the companies displacing all of these workers. Those with no skills, it may be challenging if we don't have a basic income system or some other program to help those that are not needed.

"Related: Technology could kill 5 million jobs by 2020
 
There's enormous sums of money being poured into such emerging financial technology. Investments in fintech has exploded to $19 billion last year from $1.8 billion in 2010, according to Citi and CB Insights. More than 70% of this investment is focused on making the customer experience better."

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/04/investing/bank-jobs-dying-automation-citigroup/index.html

I've asked this before, but anyone have any tips of companies to invest in?

Every automation company I have researched (Vanderlande, Knapp, Schaefer, Witron) is in private ownership.

I keep a ok percent with IGM; ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH.  I worry some about investing in individual companies when the sector and company are based on large scale disruptions to other companies and sectors. 




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theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #569 on: April 08, 2016, 04:48:28 AM »

I keep a ok percent with IGM; ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH.  I worry some about investing in individual companies when the sector and company are based on large scale disruptions to other companies and sectors.

Thanks AlanStache! Most of the UK tech funds I've found at first glance seem to be mainly invested in Facebook and LinkedIn, but I'll have a dig around. Thanks for answering.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #570 on: April 08, 2016, 07:25:08 AM »

I keep a ok percent with IGM; ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH.  I worry some about investing in individual companies when the sector and company are based on large scale disruptions to other companies and sectors.

Thanks AlanStache! Most of the UK tech funds I've found at first glance seem to be mainly invested in Facebook and LinkedIn, but I'll have a dig around. Thanks for answering.

There will be some overlap between IGM and sp500 with google/apple/microsoft/etc.  As with all ETFs you have to check what they actually own, a "Global Emerging Markets Fund" may be 85% China.  I find morning star has good tools for showing what is within an ETF. 

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=ARCX:IGM&region=usa&culture=en-US&cur=

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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #571 on: April 08, 2016, 08:17:55 AM »
I've asked this before, but anyone have any tips of companies to invest in?
Every automation company I have researched (Vanderlande, Knapp, Schaefer, Witron) is in private ownership.

I am probably keeping it too simple in that I think every company will automate and use technology.  So I am mostly just buying mutual funds for the entire market.  My bigger question is do I work a few extra years to ensure that my family in total is on the side of owning the wealth and the rights to that wealth.  I feel like they may be impacted by the lack of careers in 20+ years and depending on how society distributes the amazing wealth of the technology it may be challenging for those that don't own society.     

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #572 on: April 08, 2016, 08:43:15 AM »
My mother gave me the line from 'The Graduate' back in "73" when I graduated high school.
 She said one word, "Robotics".
  I did pursue an electronics career, but not robotics.
 I wonder how many here are old enough to remember 'The Graduate'?

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #573 on: April 12, 2016, 11:46:14 AM »
How long until fast food restaurants are totally automated?  I would think within 15 years.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/carl-jr-ceo-predicts-future-203203237.html

I'd say less than that (unless you meant all fast food restaurants). I'd say automation will be prevalent within 5 years in this field, possibly less.
The flipping of the burger is actually the hardest part to automate. I think we're going to see the front counter/register work disappear completely in 3-5 years. Gone. That's a 20-25% reduction in staffing needs right there. Imagine how many fewer servers you'd need if you settled your own bill through a tablet at the table? The money handling is what can be automated today, so that's the job I see disappearing tomorrow.


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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #574 on: April 13, 2016, 05:57:46 PM »
This company says they can do the whole thing (grind meat, cook it, assemble it) but I can't find a video of actual burger flipping.
http://momentummachines.com/
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #575 on: April 14, 2016, 06:27:38 PM »
This company says they can do the whole thing (grind meat, cook it, assemble it) but I can't find a video of actual burger flipping.
http://momentummachines.com/

I think this was discussed awhile back, but I loved the Cofounder's comment: "Alexandros Vardakostas told Xconomy his "device isn’t meant to make employees more efficient. It’s meant to completely obviate them." Indeed, marketing copy on the company's site reads that their automaton "does everything employees can do, except better."

http://www.businessinsider.com/momentum-machines-burger-robot-2014-8

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #576 on: April 22, 2016, 05:37:44 PM »
Musk hints about developing self driving "not exactly" buses to eliminate traffic congestion.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/21/elon-musk-wants-to-solve-traffic-congestion-with-self-driving-buses.html

I think small vehicles will be autonomous in the next decade.  If you get to the point where semi sized vehicles are autonomous, then we have disrupted people involved in driving taxis, semis, home delivery vehicles, and many other uses.  3.5 million truck drivers, 250 thousand taxis, 500 thousand+ Uber/Lyft drivers, and others supporting these types of jobs. 

The need to own a car will go down significantly, when the Uber/Lyfts are using self driving cars.

Pretty cool.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #577 on: April 22, 2016, 06:29:58 PM »
How long until fast food restaurants are totally automated?  I would think within 15 years.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/carl-jr-ceo-predicts-future-203203237.html

I'd say less than that (unless you meant all fast food restaurants). I'd say automation will be prevalent within 5 years in this field, possibly less.
The flipping of the burger is actually the hardest part to automate. I think we're going to see the front counter/register work disappear completely in 3-5 years. Gone. That's a 20-25% reduction in staffing needs right there. Imagine how many fewer servers you'd need if you settled your own bill through a tablet at the table? The money handling is what can be automated today, so that's the job I see disappearing tomorrow.

Imagine at a sit down restaurant you implement a system similar to Amazon's warehouse for serving the food...and the hostess consists of taking one of those buzzer pucks but not talking to a person -> instead a display shows you which table to sit at determined by your entry of party size  into an interface.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #578 on: April 22, 2016, 08:57:55 PM »
There are restaurants in Japan where almost everything is automated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXdvY0vs1b8

For cars, I can't remember where I was reading this (probably slate) where they were using deep learning (right phrase?) on cars. Right know the issue is human unpredictability and gestures. So the car observed highway driving. Then they put the car in a 4 way stop situation. The car decided to indicate that another car should go by backing up slightly. Whoa!
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #579 on: April 24, 2016, 06:57:10 AM »
How long until fast food restaurants are totally automated?  I would think within 15 years.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/carl-jr-ceo-predicts-future-203203237.html

I'd say less than that (unless you meant all fast food restaurants). I'd say automation will be prevalent within 5 years in this field, possibly less.
The flipping of the burger is actually the hardest part to automate. I think we're going to see the front counter/register work disappear completely in 3-5 years. Gone. That's a 20-25% reduction in staffing needs right there. Imagine how many fewer servers you'd need if you settled your own bill through a tablet at the table? The money handling is what can be automated today, so that's the job I see disappearing tomorrow.

Why would you flip a burger? It's inefficient. Just run it through a salamander, hit it with heat from both sides and spit it out onto a bun. No need for this old-fashioned flipping business.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #580 on: April 25, 2016, 09:54:47 AM »
Musk hints about developing self driving "not exactly" buses to eliminate traffic congestion.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/21/elon-musk-wants-to-solve-traffic-congestion-with-self-driving-buses.html

I think small vehicles will be autonomous in the next decade.  If you get to the point where semi sized vehicles are autonomous, then we have disrupted people involved in driving taxis, semis, home delivery vehicles, and many other uses.  3.5 million truck drivers, 250 thousand taxis, 500 thousand+ Uber/Lyft drivers, and others supporting these types of jobs. 

The need to own a car will go down significantly, when the Uber/Lyfts are using self driving cars.

Pretty cool.

I am not clear why vehicle size/weight would significantly affect the difficulty of the self-driving problem (I am not a truck driver).  Presumably the sensors would be intelligently placed and the algorithms retuned for different vehicles size/engine power/weight/turning radius/etc.  Yes the insurance liability and the consequences of a 2000lb car in a crash are different than a 10000lb truck in a crash but that is not in the self driving system.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #581 on: April 25, 2016, 10:11:02 AM »
Musk hints about developing self driving "not exactly" buses to eliminate traffic congestion.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/21/elon-musk-wants-to-solve-traffic-congestion-with-self-driving-buses.html

I think small vehicles will be autonomous in the next decade.  If you get to the point where semi sized vehicles are autonomous, then we have disrupted people involved in driving taxis, semis, home delivery vehicles, and many other uses.  3.5 million truck drivers, 250 thousand taxis, 500 thousand+ Uber/Lyft drivers, and others supporting these types of jobs. 

The need to own a car will go down significantly, when the Uber/Lyfts are using self driving cars.

Pretty cool.

I am not clear why vehicle size/weight would significantly affect the difficulty of the self-driving problem (I am not a truck driver).  Presumably the sensors would be intelligently placed and the algorithms retuned for different vehicles size/engine power/weight/turning radius/etc.  Yes the insurance liability and the consequences of a 2000lb car in a crash are different than a 10000lb truck in a crash but that is not in the self driving system.

If anything self-driving semis and buses might be safer, though they will likely need a human operator on hand to 'take over' in the event of a malfunction or extremely random event (much like jumbo jets now).  But a computer will maintain perfect following distance and total awareness of all the vehicles around it, unlike many trucks I've had the misfortune to drive near.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #582 on: April 25, 2016, 12:11:45 PM »
Musk hints about developing self driving "not exactly" buses to eliminate traffic congestion.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/21/elon-musk-wants-to-solve-traffic-congestion-with-self-driving-buses.html

I think small vehicles will be autonomous in the next decade.  If you get to the point where semi sized vehicles are autonomous, then we have disrupted people involved in driving taxis, semis, home delivery vehicles, and many other uses.  3.5 million truck drivers, 250 thousand taxis, 500 thousand+ Uber/Lyft drivers, and others supporting these types of jobs. 

The need to own a car will go down significantly, when the Uber/Lyfts are using self driving cars.

Pretty cool.

I am not clear why vehicle size/weight would significantly affect the difficulty of the self-driving problem (I am not a truck driver).  Presumably the sensors would be intelligently placed and the algorithms retuned for different vehicles size/engine power/weight/turning radius/etc.  Yes the insurance liability and the consequences of a 2000lb car in a crash are different than a 10000lb truck in a crash but that is not in the self driving system.

If anything self-driving semis and buses might be safer, though they will likely need a human operator on hand to 'take over' in the event of a malfunction or extremely random event (much like jumbo jets now).  But a computer will maintain perfect following distance and total awareness of all the vehicles around it, unlike many trucks I've had the misfortune to drive near.

I don't think that it's a technological difficulty for bigger vehicles. The bigger vehicles are usually commercial. That is way more obviously disruptive than cars for personal use. Even when making the announcement of the self driving truck that mercedes is developing (fun fact: a test drive has been completed!!) they made it very clear that drivers would still be involved. There would be too much push back that would halt R&D.

Even though it's merely perspective. It's just as disruptive for self driving cars as it is for trucks. The same reason that more people focus on the pesticides on factory farms than the pesticides thrown on lawns. The technology during it's development phase will go the route of least resistance. Once most of the hurdles are overcome, and the technology is being commonly used, then it will go into the realm of commercial tech. Thinking about it, and I might write more about this later, historically it's been the other direction. New tech is used by industry first, and then trickles down to the common person. Things seem to have been reversed lately. Hmmm.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #583 on: April 26, 2016, 07:06:16 AM »
Thank You mozar for the link to automated Japanese restaurants. The vid shows us what you can achieve with conveyors and a standardised menu.

I see a future where food at automated restaurants is so cheap that it will become common, and municipalities may even provide food in such restaurants free as a municipal service. This could include schools where students could go to an automated restaurant next door at no charge. Such food could include sushi (I liked the automated sushi machines) sandwiches, vol au vents, small pastries, small pizza slices. That is, finger food.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #584 on: April 26, 2016, 07:12:22 PM »
Article on Basic Income and Robots/technology.

http://www.businessinsider.com/universal-basic-income-justifications-2016-4
"But again, robots have to be created by humans, which makes the idea that robots are in some way maximized humans an argument not that robots are good or humans are bad, but that robot-creating humans are the best."

I am not sure why the author feels that humans will be making robots.  Currently humans are barely making Teslas.  I would think that in 20 years robots will be making robots.  Why would you put a highly unqualified human in place of a Robot to make robots?  I think they author would be more accurate to state that people who own the companies would be the controllers of the universe. Basic income will most likely need to occur or people will be taking up arms as they are jobless and worthless to society.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #585 on: April 27, 2016, 07:35:15 PM »
Maybe it's because I'm tired, but I didn't understand the purpose of the article of the previous post at all. He's saying that he 1. is against basic minimum income because it will help rich people? Well yes, that is part of it. That's not a bad thing necessarily. The rich will be more likely to support it. 2. We need to grapple with how to decrease poverty and inequality which is a separate issue from automation. I agree!
3. He doesn't think that automation/robots will take all our jobs. I disagree with that. It's not that this time it's different, it's that automation is continuing it's march up the worker ladder. First dogs, then horses, manufacturing, now white collar work. I think the discussion in this thread is way ahead of this article.

But mostly I'm posting to mention a great Freakanomics podcast about the basic minimum income. They were talking about how dogs used to do so many jobs for humans, but they don't anymore. But they evolved into pets. Basically they were implying that humans will eventually become pets for robots!
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #586 on: April 28, 2016, 02:23:46 PM »
...He doesn't think that automation/robots will take all our jobs. I disagree with that. It's not that this time it's different, it's that automation is continuing it's march up the worker ladder. First dogs, then horses, manufacturing, now white collar work.


You skipped children.  Its not likely coincidence that (anti) child labor laws began to pop up just after the industrial revolution, and became universal during the great depression.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #587 on: April 28, 2016, 04:28:41 PM »
Quote
You skipped children.  Its not likely coincidence that (anti) child labor laws began to pop up just after the industrial revolution, and became universal during the great depression.

I said I was tired! Didn't mean to skip.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #588 on: May 03, 2016, 09:04:32 AM »
Quote
You skipped children.  Its not likely coincidence that (anti) child labor laws began to pop up just after the industrial revolution, and became universal during the great depression.

I said I was tired! Didn't mean to skip.

And the elderly. In the UK you had to retire at 65 for men, 60 for women until relatively recently, I think around 2010, because I remember changing company policy from 'You leave on your birthday' to, 'you can ask to stay past your birthday'. My aunt retired before the change, and wanted to continue working, but couldn't. I know in the US it is common to carry on longer, but not here. Another element of the workforce that was no longer needed, so the state pension and compulsory retirement was introduced.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #589 on: May 03, 2016, 04:22:49 PM »
Wow I've never heard of compulsory retirement.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #590 on: May 03, 2016, 07:39:04 PM »
Wow I've never heard of compulsory retirement.

Used to be a thing. Along with retirement if you were a woman who had a baby (although you were allowed to go back once the kids had left home), if you were a woman who got married (in some professions), in fact they never used to need much of an excuse at all to send you out to pasture if you were a woman. Not that long ago either, in the big scheme of things.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #591 on: May 04, 2016, 12:51:11 PM »
Robots can now carry out surgery almost unaided http://econ.st/24rmyNS

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #592 on: May 05, 2016, 04:58:23 AM »
Wow I've never heard of compulsory retirement.

Used to be a thing. Along with retirement if you were a woman who had a baby (although you were allowed to go back once the kids had left home), if you were a woman who got married (in some professions), in fact they never used to need much of an excuse at all to send you out to pasture if you were a woman. Not that long ago either, in the big scheme of things.

Yes, we went to a Concorde exhibition, and the compulsory retirement age for women flight attendants was 35! That was if you made it that far... you also had to leave upon becoming pregnant. Or was it getting married? I can't remember.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #593 on: May 05, 2016, 11:10:41 AM »
Not an overly robust article, but it has a graph of manufacturing employment to industrial robots.  Note they projected out the growth in industrial robots, but did not project out the manufacturing jobs.

Also note it took 30+ years to reach a million industrial robots and 11 years to reach 2 million and the curve is expanding so 3 million is probably 3 or 4 years after hitting 2 million.

http://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-america-robots-2016-5

"Tech disruption is negative for workers: attempts to address inequality via higher minimum wages is likely to accelerate automation in the labor force (note the sharp increase in the use of industrial robots this decade and the stagnant level of manufacturing employment – chart 3); the increased use of robots & AI may also be reducing wage expectations, thus helping to explain why household savings continue to rise."
« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 11:15:46 AM by tomsang »

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #594 on: May 10, 2016, 09:15:43 PM »
"Institutional Investor just released its annual list of the top-earning hedge fund managers, and six of the top eight are quants, or managers who rely on computer programs to guide their investing."

This is last year's data.  Those trying to compete with human involvement will be toast in the coming years.

"He basically said something to the effect of: "If your job is a purely manual job and you are just clicking buttons, you should look to upgrade your skills set now.""

http://www.businessinsider.com/quant-funds-dominate-hedge-fund-rich-list-2016-5

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #595 on: May 11, 2016, 09:54:40 AM »
"Institutional Investor just released its annual list of the top-earning hedge fund managers, and six of the top eight are quants, or managers who rely on computer programs to guide their investing."

This is last year's data.  Those trying to compete with human involvement will be toast in the coming years.

"He basically said something to the effect of: "If your job is a purely manual job and you are just clicking buttons, you should look to upgrade your skills set now.""

http://www.businessinsider.com/quant-funds-dominate-hedge-fund-rich-list-2016-5

I'm surprised there are still 2 that are not quants. I would have expected it to be 8/8. Although that led me down a rabbit hole of watching AI air hockey, and that was kind of fun.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #596 on: May 11, 2016, 08:33:10 PM »
...

I'm surprised there are still 2 that are not quants. I would have expected it to be 8/8. Although that led me down a rabbit hole of watching AI air hockey, and that was kind of fun.

I guess the AI's have yet to fully master bribery, insider trading and extortion :-)
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #597 on: May 12, 2016, 10:12:28 AM »
well, that, and the quants themselves are still programed by people. 
(that's what Jacob of Early Retirement Extreme - arguably the reason MMM got so big so quickly - un-retired to go do)

In the (probably near?) future when AI software is advanced enough to create better AI software than human minds can, then it will probably go to 8/8
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #598 on: May 12, 2016, 10:19:08 AM »
well, that, and the quants themselves are still programed by people. 
(that's what Jacob of Early Retirement Extreme - arguably the reason MMM got so big so quickly - un-retired to go do)

In the (probably near?) future when AI software is advanced enough to create better AI software than human minds can, then it will probably go to 8/8

Didn't even realize that Jacob unretired. When AI can create better AI, that is going to be awesome. Possibly end the Human Race, but awesome nonetheless.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #599 on: May 12, 2016, 10:36:43 AM »
You'll have to color me skeptical about this whole self-driving car thing.  I would certainly rather own a self-driving car, and I typically commute by motorcycle so feel it would probably be safer for me if cars were self-driving.  Then people could shove their smartphones down their throats without it being a risk to me.  But I still think there are too many details that need to be worked out that make the whole thing further off than is advertised.  Just today leaving from the gym on the Ducati I was playing through all the steps that would be required if I was commuting to work via SD car.  There just seem to be too many things that have to go right - from navigating a parking lot to collision avoidance, dealing with road markings, faded or missing lines, GPS irregularities, other people, training/licensing, etc.  Maybe it's just the engineer in me, but I have trouble envisioning this sort of thing with our current road system. 

Reusing rockets and re-landing them on a barge in the ocean?  Yeah I can wrap my head around that.  Right now I just can't get it wrapped around a real self-driving car.  I hope I'm wrong and they're adopted safely and I can ride my motorcycles without fear of distracted drivers...not buying it right now though.