Author Topic: Robots and their impact on the future  (Read 168028 times)

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #400 on: August 13, 2015, 10:16:18 PM »
I still think VR will be more disruptive in the immediate future than AI

http://time.com/3986185/virtual-reality-headset/

Yeah, it's a lame article and I won't quote anything from it although people mentioned are tossing millions of USD around.  But I still hold my ground that VR will affect everyday life more pervasively in my lifetime than AI will.  And that is what is great about living today, that either outcome could be so disruptive that we mis-predicted the outcome.  Sadly, predicting outcomes is a much weaker force than affecting outcomes :)
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matchewed

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #401 on: August 14, 2015, 05:45:16 AM »
I still think VR will be more disruptive in the immediate future than AI

http://time.com/3986185/virtual-reality-headset/

Yeah, it's a lame article and I won't quote anything from it although people mentioned are tossing millions of USD around.  But I still hold my ground that VR will affect everyday life more pervasively in my lifetime than AI will.  And that is what is great about living today, that either outcome could be so disruptive that we mis-predicted the outcome.  Sadly, predicting outcomes is a much weaker force than affecting outcomes :)

AI is already affecting your everyday life, VR is not. So are you sure of that position?

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #402 on: August 14, 2015, 06:55:54 AM »
I guess we can just wait and 'see', Matthew. 

I've had a pretty damn good run being right on these things (got rich back in the 'internet' age, for instance buying Amazon IPO), so maybe I'm wrong this time, maybe it's just hubris.  At this point, it doesn't really matter...  Still, I think AI has hit a hard wall (as gene mapping and nano tech did, which are probably more trans-formative to AI, from a human-selfish perspective).  Still, I'm speculating that VR will be on a tear in 2016...  I don't know your background, so I'm not sure how I should try to back up my position, or even if you care if I do.  I'm just putting out an opinion, at the end of the day.  Until it becomes a fact. 
« Last Edit: August 14, 2015, 07:15:36 AM by EscapeVelocity2020 »
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jordanread

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #403 on: August 14, 2015, 08:09:54 AM »
I guess we can just wait and 'see', Matthew. 

I've had a pretty damn good run being right on these things (got rich back in the 'internet' age, for instance buying Amazon IPO), so maybe I'm wrong this time, maybe it's just hubris.  At this point, it doesn't really matter...  Still, I think AI has hit a hard wall (as gene mapping and nano tech did, which are probably more trans-formative to AI, from a human-selfish perspective).  Still, I'm speculating that VR will be on a tear in 2016...  I don't know your background, so I'm not sure how I should try to back up my position, or even if you care if I do.  I'm just putting out an opinion, at the end of the day.  Until it becomes a fact.

I think you are talking about AGI, while matchewed was referring to the narrow AI that we use regularly. I would agree that gene mapping and nanotech (at least insofar as longevity is concerned) would be super disruptive. The thing I like about disruptive technologies (or the potential) is that they aren't mutually exclusive. You could both be right. And I love the opinion until it's fact bit...that was great.

Tomsang, you finish that book yet?
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EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #404 on: August 14, 2015, 09:55:50 AM »
I think you are talking about AGI, while matchewed was referring to the narrow AI that we use regularly.

Geeze, you and Rebelspy are so finicky about the WBW terminology!  To me, 'AI' means true Machine Learning, as in an 'intelligence' that continues to improve itself until it surpasses human capacity, in whatever way it develops (probably much differently than our conception of 'intelligence', but also unrestricted by our using it to our own ends, like 'Siri' and 'Echo'). 

This whole segmenting of AI into 'ANI' and 'AGI' is like making a child look like they are making progress when they swim a few more feet with a paddle-board  in the endless pool that is existence.  Either we have AI or we don't';  leveraging hardware and software with the euphemism that we are creating 'neural networks' that approximate AI is deceptive.

Whew, that was fun to write!  Sorry Jordanread, didn't mean to unload on you specifically in any way, just wanted to write.
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jordanread

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #405 on: August 14, 2015, 10:40:13 AM »
I think you are talking about AGI, while matchewed was referring to the narrow AI that we use regularly.

Geeze, you and Rebelspy are so finicky about the WBW terminology!  To me, 'AI' means true Machine Learning, as in an 'intelligence' that continues to improve itself until it surpasses human capacity, in whatever way it develops (probably much differently than our conception of 'intelligence', but also unrestricted by our using it to our own ends, like 'Siri' and 'Echo'). 

This whole segmenting of AI into 'ANI' and 'AGI' is like making a child look like they are making progress when they swim a few more feet with a paddle-board  in the endless pool that is existence.  Either we have AI or we don't';  leveraging hardware and software with the euphemism that we are creating 'neural networks' that approximate AI is deceptive.

Whew, that was fun to write!

It was fun to read. And (while I can't speak for rebs) my terminology is based on the research I've done before I'd even heard of WBW. Narrow and General are accepted terms throughout the field (at least those I've had the pleasure of talking to - not here; I mean, good discussions, but that's not specifically what we're about). I can see how and why you feel that way. And while I'm just a crazy uncle, and most kid analogies go 'over my head' (seriously, they are just like dogs that can talk back :D), I can see where you are coming from. That idea, to me, explains why you feel the way you do regarding the narrow term. Without those terms, and thinking of AI as I think you do, that explains to me why you used the phrase ''hit a hard wall". With those terms in play, we are making progress. Without them, I can see how it seems that way. I actually feel similar about your statement regarding nanotech. I don't think we hit a hard wall, since for some damn reason (possibly the potential, the divide between reality and wishful thinking, and the over promising to venture capitalists) nanotech has a bad rap. We haven't made the progress that has been promised, and with the exception of a few teams, the under delivering and over promising has made for some slow public process. I'd be more than happy to discuss this further,  it makes for a great conversation, and this is the right place for it on this forum. I personally think that the incredible progress that has been made is not being recognized for what it is, because of terminology (like you mentioned and attributed to WBW). That is a super dumb reason IMHO as to why progress shouldn't happen.

Now, VR is awesome, and I think AR is amazing progress, and will be the actual way that VR is implemented.
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Albert

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #406 on: August 14, 2015, 11:06:36 AM »
Is it a necessary for general AI to surpass human intelligence to count as a "true" AI? Wouldn't just 30% (arbitrary number) and no further improvement be just as valid? 

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #407 on: August 14, 2015, 11:41:24 AM »
Thanks for being easy on me and progressing the discussion JR, I know you more intertwined in this field than I am.  While I'm not generally a 'black and white' thinker, sometimes it helps me stay out of the weeds and try to figure out what is happening.  I do see massive potential for the next generations to combine disciplines, with that now including AI;  when I graduated the next generation of geniuses were taking dual degrees in medicine and engineering so as to improve artificial hearts, joints, etc.  My Dad is living a better life because of these people (at 75 years old and his best parts are a 3 year old hip, 10 year old dental implants, and 1 year old shoulder). 

It's very exciting to imagine what is possible for us, and fills me with hope that maybe future generations won't have to stand idly by while Parkinsons and Alzheimers diseases run their course.  Of course, our morals will stand in the way of progress - is it better to have the original as it is failing, or an repaired facsimile?

So as for 'pure AI' (or AGI), at least IMHO, it's like string-theory physicists blowing their minds with each finding or possibility...  There is tremendous potential in so many directions, yet it will likely take several generations (in terms of tech, not human) to get comfortable with the onset of these new possibilities (as we currently are around GMO's, cloning, etc..  Not that that's a bad thing, but it is a thing).

Fun discussion, thanks!
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BTDretire

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #408 on: August 14, 2015, 11:47:08 AM »

When I graduated from HS 42 years ago, my mother had 'One word" for me.

 Robotics


I didn't listen.

jordanread

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #409 on: August 14, 2015, 12:39:44 PM »
Is it a necessary for general AI to surpass human intelligence to count as a "true" AI? Wouldn't just 30% (arbitrary number) and no further improvement be just as valid?

Could be, but the entire thing for me is based on whether or not the creation can create more AIs. That is the 'singularity', just due to the actual speed. If there is no further improvement, it's not what I would consider as true AGI.

Thanks for being easy on me and progressing the discussion JR [...]

You are very welcome!! This discussion is awesome, even as a thought experiment.

[...]While I'm not generally a 'black and white' thinker, sometimes it helps me stay out of the weeds and try to figure out what is happening.  I do see massive potential for the next generations to combine disciplines, with that now including AI;  when I graduated the next generation of geniuses were taking dual degrees in medicine and engineering so as to improve artificial hearts, joints, etc.  My Dad is living a better life because of these people (at 75 years old and his best parts are a 3 year old hip, 10 year old dental implants, and 1 year old shoulder). 

It's very exciting to imagine what is possible for us, and fills me with hope that maybe future generations won't have to stand idly by while Parkinsons and Alzheimers diseases run their course.  Of course, our morals will stand in the way of progress - is it better to have the original as it is failing, or an repaired facsimile?

So as for 'pure AI' (or AGI), at least IMHO, it's like string-theory physicists blowing their minds with each finding or possibility...  There is tremendous potential in so many directions, yet it will likely take several generations (in terms of tech, not human) to get comfortable with the onset of these new possibilities (as we currently are around GMO's, cloning, etc..  Not that that's a bad thing, but it is a thing).

Fun discussion, thanks!

While we could totally get into the discussion regarding college and all that, I'll just take the win ;). I'm only 30 right now, and I have no idea what your age is. This conversation, or at least the thought process behind it, is probably (at the very least 'possibly') based on our current age (not challenging you to post or link to where you did, just saying). If you aren't involved in making AGI (like Elon Musk and Stehen Hawking...who are both awesome except for that), staying out of the weeds is probably a great way to go about it. Your black and white thinking will most likely serve you well here. I will post more about your actual comment on Monday, but I'll leave you with this quote I heard from someone somewhere in my life. Your comment touched on that, and provides an interesting perspective related to the "hit a hard wall" comment as well.

Potential is another way of saying NOT.
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EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #410 on: August 14, 2015, 01:14:15 PM »
...  I'll just take the win ;). I'm only 30 right now

So for you it is a 'double win' - being formally trained in an interesting field AND being young enough to possibly witness the 'singularity'.  When I graduated, the 'one word' whispered to me was 'plastics' (hence Chemical Engineer in Houston, not so bad but also not exactly changing the world either).

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Potential is another way of saying NOT.

Or maybe just NOT YET ...  I'm still a glass half full kinda guy on these things :)
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jordanread

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #411 on: August 14, 2015, 02:51:59 PM »
...  I'll just take the win ;). I'm only 30 right now

So for you it is a 'double win' - being formally trained in an interesting field AND being young enough to possibly witness the 'singularity'.  When I graduated, the 'one word' whispered to me was 'plastics' (hence Chemical Engineer in Houston, not so bad but also not exactly changing the world either).

Quote
Potential is another way of saying NOT.

Or maybe just NOT YET ...  I'm still a glass half full kinda guy on these things :)

Oh, I'm a half glass full kinda guy too (Not yet is an amazing, incredible, and super productive way of looking at things). My opinion has always been that when ASI happens (and my optimistic nature makes me make think it's very much a when), one of two things will happen. It will be awesome, or it will kill us all. Either way, I won't care much unless things turn out well for us :=).

And I have very little formal training. However (and I have no idea why I latched on to the word "formal"), yes...I'm getting the best of all worlds. I am pretty sure I'll live more than 500 years. Or just be around for another 60/70 years.
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #412 on: August 17, 2015, 09:22:01 AM »
Interesting article on IBM's rodent brain processor.

http://www.wired.com/2015/08/ibms-rodent-brain-chip-make-phones-hyper-smart/

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #413 on: August 17, 2015, 11:04:40 AM »
Interesting article on IBM's rodent brain processor.

Don't know if you've ever read Stephen King's novel 'Cell'....   
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #414 on: August 17, 2015, 11:06:52 AM »
Interesting article on IBM's rodent brain processor.

Don't know if you've ever read Stephen King's novel 'Cell'....

I haven't.  I used to read all of his books, but haven't read one in 15 years. Is it worth the read?

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #415 on: August 17, 2015, 11:28:50 AM »
It's a lot different from his usual stuff (although King is amazing in the fact that he always seems to be writing stuff that isn't his 'usual stuff', I'm currently reading '11/22/63' and enjoying that immensely).  Cell is a pretty breezy 'summertime' read, and I'd recommend it before many other things I've come across.   Or you could just read the Wikipedia on it - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell_(novel). 

In relation to the article you linked to, the reference to 'Cell' was my thought about AI coming from the other end (reducing human AGI) until it meets machine AI in the middle...  it was a stretch, but it's only Monday.  By Friday I'll have it all figured out again :)   
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jordanread

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #416 on: August 17, 2015, 11:33:58 AM »
It's a lot different from his usual stuff (although King is amazing in the fact that he always seems to be writing stuff that isn't his 'usual stuff', I'm currently reading '11/22/63' and enjoying that immensely).  Cell is a pretty breezy 'summertime' read, and I'd recommend it before many other things I've come across.   Or you could just read the Wikipedia on it - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell_(novel). 

In relation to the article you linked to, the reference to 'Cell' was my thought about AI coming from the other end (reducing human AGI) until it meets machine AI in the middle...  it was a stretch, but it's only Monday.  By Friday I'll have it all figured out again :)

Damn you EV2020. Now I actually have to read yet another Stephen King book. I am not a big fan of most of Stephen King's books, but got hooked on the Dark Tower series. And yeah, now I'll read cell. I will blame you if it sucks though :)
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EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #417 on: August 17, 2015, 11:40:50 AM »
@JR - it's the kind of book that sticks with you because it doesn't hold your hand and explain everything (or much of anything, crazy stuff just keeps happening, like real life - but thank goodness not).  As long as you are up for that, it is a lot of fun.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #418 on: August 17, 2015, 11:52:27 AM »
@JR - it's the kind of book that sticks with you because it doesn't hold your hand and explain everything (or much of anything, crazy stuff just keeps happening, like real life - but thank goodness not).  As long as you are up for that, it is a lot of fun.

I'll read it. May be a bit before I get around to it, but it's now on my list.

Edited: to fix stupid spelling mistakes.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2015, 01:20:16 PM by jordanread »
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #419 on: August 17, 2015, 12:16:02 PM »
@JR - it's the kind of book that sticks with you because it doesn't hold your hand and explain everything (or much of anything, crazy stuff just keeps happening, like real life - but thank goodness not).  As long as you are up for that, it is a lot of fun.

I will download it on my next trip. Thanks for the recommendation.


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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #421 on: August 17, 2015, 09:00:15 PM »
That article is basically about how the wage offensive won't speed up robot powered restaurants.
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #422 on: August 17, 2015, 09:19:16 PM »
That article is basically about how the wage offensive won't speed up robot powered restaurants.

I laughed when I read those quotes from Fatburger. I don't think they want to go on record that they are going to replace all of the jobs.  They want to do it in stealth mode.  I look at what automotive, airplanes, etc. have done.  They are replacing thousands of employees per year with automation, but they are not touting that this as the public, unions, and government would not like this thrown in their face.  So they just quietly replace the jobs.

My teenage kids would rather order off an Iphone than dealing with the computer challenged cashiers.  If you can make a tasty burger without minimum wage employees, I don't see people having any issues or hesitation. 

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #423 on: August 18, 2015, 10:45:37 AM »
The article did draw some interesting parallels between the wage discussion and automation. I hadn't thought about that too much, which was a failure on my part. I usually pay attention to the studies that focus on the advances in this particular field. However, the actual advances usually come out of other industries (like so many other advances we've experienced). Even in the speculative fiction book I mentioned earlier, the actual start was in fast food.

Also, even though I don't eat out that often, I'd rather have a burger sourced well and cooked by a robot. At least that's more consistent. 
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #424 on: August 18, 2015, 02:58:01 PM »
Yep the middle class jobs are a definite target, in The Lights in The Tunnel, they look at how it is economically worth it to try to automate good paying jobs especially those that require less manipulation of the real world. 

You can make more money by automating away a lawyer or legal assistant than you can automating away a hotel maid and in the law you dont have to worry about emulating a human hand or bending over to an awkward corner of a room, more of the work and inputs are already digital.

Also it is not an all or nothing deal, if this year you can automate 6 legal assistants down to 5, then a few years latter down to 4 all the while doing more volume for less cost everyone but the out of work assistants are making more money.  Some argue that those two legal assistants would then get better jobs writing software for the bots but I find argument this unpersuasive.
I work for a law firm that has been in existence in one form or another since the 1800s.  At one time, we had about double the staff as we had attorneys.  Today, we have far fewer staff than attorneys. There are many offices in our buildings that use to house two or three secretaries, where there is now one.  I head up the accounting department, where once we had five employees.  Now I do the job with one assistant. 

Is this a good thing? It depends on your perspective.  I am concerned about all those "undereducated" people out there and what will become of them when they cannot get jobs.  I am afraid we will have rioting in the streets over it, and crime will escalate.

In general, legal assistants are not qualified to write software.  At least, the ones here are not.  Maybe it's different in New York City or Washington, DC.

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #425 on: August 22, 2015, 10:59:47 AM »
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/scott-santens/future-of-jobs_b_8011296.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

Interesting article.

"Whenever we see someone claiming new jobs are being created and will continue to be created so as to provide everyone a job, we need to look deeper and ask, "What kind of job? What are the skills required? How much does it pay for how many hours? Does it provide more security or less? What are the benefits it offers? Is the job really necessary? Does the job provide meaning to those tasked with it? Are jobs and work the same thing? Is there work to do that's more important than what the job involves? Is working in the job actually better than not working at all?""

"Those who moved into optimal jobs showed significant improvement in mental health compared to those who remained unemployed. Those respondents who moved into poor-quality jobs showed a significant worsening in their mental health compared to those who remained unemployed."

"There appears to be no happy ending to this story that doesn't involve universal basic income. So instead of continuing to ask if jobs are going to be automated in sufficient quantities to need basic income, let's instead start to increasingly ask if there's any job we can't automate so we're all more freed to live by it."

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #426 on: September 11, 2015, 02:11:13 PM »
http://www.wired.com/2015/09/get-ready-entrust-retirement-robot/

Oh the irony, workers can outsource their 401k retirement investing to automation, thereby eliminating jobs.  Pretty soon the robots will be unemployed too :)

Quote
If it works, Betterment’s 401(k) bot may help add financial adviser to the list of human jobs soon to be co-opted by smarter machines.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2015, 02:17:15 PM by EscapeVelocity2020 »
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #427 on: September 11, 2015, 04:19:38 PM »
http://www.wired.com/2015/09/get-ready-entrust-retirement-robot/

Oh the irony, workers can outsource their 401k retirement investing to automation, thereby eliminating jobs.  Pretty soon the robots will be unemployed too :)

Quote
If it works, Betterment’s 401(k) bot may help add financial adviser to the list of human jobs soon to be co-opted by smarter machines.

This was already automated. It's call the Target Retirement 20XX Fund or the LifeCycle Fund, or Vanguard's online fund recommendations based on your risk tolerance and investment goals, etc. Betterment is just branding that gets them fees.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #428 on: September 11, 2015, 04:54:48 PM »
http://www.wired.com/2015/09/get-ready-entrust-retirement-robot/

Oh the irony, workers can outsource their 401k retirement investing to automation, thereby eliminating jobs.  Pretty soon the robots will be unemployed too :)

Quote
If it works, Betterment’s 401(k) bot may help add financial adviser to the list of human jobs soon to be co-opted by smarter machines.

This was already automated. It's call the Target Retirement 20XX Fund or the LifeCycle Fund, or Vanguard's online fund recommendations based on your risk tolerance and investment goals, etc. Betterment is just branding that gets them fees.

And arguably the algorithm whic maintains a total market fund is more impressive than one which maintains an asset allocation comprised of two such funds that changes over decades.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #429 on: September 12, 2015, 07:04:28 AM »
One of the more important foreseeable improvements from robots is automated driving. Automated braking another development that is about to become standard in cars. It could be another 5 or 10 years before it's required in all new cars, but we're quietly moving towards full automation. It could save a lot of lives (and money) and increase productivity and decrease traffic, etc.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/12/business/automakers-will-make-automatic-braking-systems-standard-in-new-cars.html

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #430 on: September 12, 2015, 04:44:42 PM »
Saved lives is great of course. In addition millions of people will lose their jobs due to to automated driving.

That was a surprisingly good article from HuffPo.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #431 on: September 12, 2015, 05:08:42 PM »
Saved lives is great of course. In addition millions of people will lose their jobs due to to automated driving.

That was a surprisingly good article from HuffPo.
And more people will get jobs because of increased efficiency and car insurance rates will go way down or even be eliminated and more people will get jobs creating and improving automated driving, etc.

And it was NYT, which generally has good articles. HuffPo generally does not, outside of their specialty of sideboob.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #432 on: September 12, 2015, 05:49:41 PM »
Saved lives is great of course. In addition millions of people will lose their jobs due to to automated driving.

That was a surprisingly good article from HuffPo.
And more people will get jobs because of increased efficiency and car insurance rates will go way down or even be eliminated and more people will get jobs creating and improving automated driving, etc.

And it was NYT, which generally has good articles. HuffPo generally does not, outside of their specialty of sideboob.

There are certain people that have the education and intellect to program, create, and develop automation and technology.  Typically, those are not the taxi drivers, truck drivers, and average person.  So to say that technology will create more jobs may be true, but it may be jobs that the bottom 90% can't do.  Also, when you are wiping out 1,000 or 10,000 of jobs at a whack, it is highly unlikely that we will create that many additional technology jobs.

If technology is managed for the good, then the spoils of the bounty will be rise all boats.  Otherwise the inequality will just grow.  Fortunately, I and my family are on the right side of the line currently.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #433 on: September 12, 2015, 06:27:53 PM »
[...]
That was a surprisingly good article from HuffPo.
[...]
And it was NYT, which generally has good articles. HuffPo generally does not, outside of their specialty of sideboob.

I think mozar was referring to:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/scott-santens/future-of-jobs_b_8011296.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

Interesting article.



Saved lives is great of course. In addition millions of people will lose their jobs due to to automated driving.
[...]
And more people will get jobs because of increased efficiency and car insurance rates will go way down or even be eliminated and more people will get jobs creating and improving automated driving, etc.
[...]

That approach kind of rubs me the wrong way. I think it has to do with a more fundamental way of viewing things (which I think is the most common reason for arguments). I personally always view disruptive technologies that may lose jobs as an indicator that computers can do a better job than people. It reminds me of an article I recently read about automation in planes and the FAA. They blamed the automation and technology for pilots falling asleep and missing the landings or crashing. I take the view that we just need to get better at automating the landings. Anyway, where I was initially going with this is that one of the most common arguments or discussion points when new tech replaces jobs is about how there will be new (albeit different) jobs created based on the tech. I look at this as a way of trying to keep the old thoughts and paradigms in place even though a shift in thinking should happen. I'm still working on what solution I think would be the best, but I do truly believe that more and different job creation is not the solution.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #434 on: September 12, 2015, 07:37:41 PM »
People always feel like with disruptive technologies that "this time is different". We've always had industries get changed and lost many jobs from them. But people have always found something else to do. Maybe 98% people were farmers not long ago. Now, maybe 2% are. Tons of people used to be in the horse business. Now almost no one is. Telephone operators used to plug in the cables to make your calls. Now a computer does it. Maybe this time is different. But it never has been so far.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #435 on: September 12, 2015, 09:06:29 PM »
Quote
They blamed the automation and technology for pilots falling asleep and missing the landings or crashing.

Or that pilots should be allowed to sleep, instead of making them work back to back 12 hour shifts.

I do think its different this time. One of the reasons I think so is that work force participation peaked in 2000 and has been falling since. I don't have the stats on this, but some of the decrease in the unemployment rate over the past 7 years has been because of people giving up on looking. Our current rate is around 62% participation (so low!). I choose to interpret these facts as being related to increasing automation.

As for what to do, I actually did what the HuffPo article suggested, and signed the Basic Income petition.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #436 on: September 13, 2015, 06:30:38 AM »
Quote
They blamed the automation and technology for pilots falling asleep and missing the landings or crashing.

Or that pilots should be allowed to sleep, instead of making them work back to back 12 hour shifts.

I do think its different this time. One of the reasons I think so is that work force participation peaked in 2000 and has been falling since. I don't have the stats on this, but some of the decrease in the unemployment rate over the past 7 years has been because of people giving up on looking. Our current rate is around 62% participation (so low!). I choose to interpret these facts as being related to increasing automation.

As for what to do, I actually did what the HuffPo article suggested, and signed the Basic Income petition.

The pilots crashing issue is still human error because the pilots ignored the computer saying "STALL STALL <ALARM SOUND> STALL STALL <ALARM SOUND> STALL STALL <ALARM SOUND>". Any pilot should know what to do immediately to get out of a stall. The human training needs to be adapted to deal with the new technology so that people's reflexes incorporate a better understanding of it. We now have pilots with rusty actual flying skills because they don't need to use them because the planes fly themselves.
http://99percentinvisible.org/episode/children-of-the-magenta-automation-paradox-pt-1/

Increasing automation or increasing wealth or a trend towards RE or a trend towards single income household or... there are plenty of possibilities there.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #437 on: September 13, 2015, 08:32:23 AM »
Quote
They blamed the automation and technology for pilots falling asleep and missing the landings or crashing.

Or that pilots should be allowed to sleep, instead of making them work back to back 12 hour shifts.

I do think its different this time. One of the reasons I think so is that work force participation peaked in 2000 and has been falling since. I don't have the stats on this, but some of the decrease in the unemployment rate over the past 7 years has been because of people giving up on looking. Our current rate is around 62% participation (so low!). I choose to interpret these facts as being related to increasing automation.

As for what to do, I actually did what the HuffPo article suggested, and signed the Basic Income petition.

The pilots crashing issue is still human error because the pilots ignored the computer saying "STALL STALL <ALARM SOUND> STALL STALL <ALARM SOUND> STALL STALL <ALARM SOUND>". Any pilot should know what to do immediately to get out of a stall. The human training needs to be adapted to deal with the new technology so that people's reflexes incorporate a better understanding of it. We now have pilots with rusty actual flying skills because they don't need to use them because the planes fly themselves.
http://99percentinvisible.org/episode/children-of-the-magenta-automation-paradox-pt-1/

Increasing automation or increasing wealth or a trend towards RE or a trend towards single income household or... there are plenty of possibilities there.

Pilot skill degradation is a big problem, a middle eastern airline did a study and found that its pilots were flying for a total of like 30 seconds over 6 months, the rest of the time they the computer was flying waypoints or headings.  Requiring pilots of automated airplanes to continue flying simple single engine airplanes could go a long way in aviation safety but will never happen.

Reguarding stalls specifically, this is one of the last few 'tall poles' in commercial aviation safety.  The FAA is in the process of requiring recurrent stall training, in past airline pilots did not have to do any sort of stall work once they start flying anything with more than 4 seats (more or less).  Some of the stall related incidents were due to bad simulators and bad training and very tired crew. 

AirBus has in past activity calmed that there airplanes cant stall-this is monumentally stupid-all airfoils can stall.  AirFrance 447 changed the company line.  I have flown the 447 scenario in a full up simulator and even knowing what is happening it is VERY disorientating (half the instruments conflict with each other), still pilot error but eye opening.  In a car it would be like having the gas petal all the way down, the rpm counter at 8000, but no engine noise, the speedometer reading -3333 and total darkness out the windscreen. 
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #438 on: September 14, 2015, 04:59:31 PM »
People always feel like with disruptive technologies that "this time is different". We've always had industries get changed and lost many jobs from them. But people have always found something else to do. Maybe 98% people were farmers not long ago. Now, maybe 2% are. Tons of people used to be in the horse business. Now almost no one is. Telephone operators used to plug in the cables to make your calls. Now a computer does it. Maybe this time is different. But it never has been so far.


When most people were farmers, most people worked more or less sun up to sun down, 7 days a week - 4 on the farm, day of travel to the market, day at the market, a day of travel back (or something like that).
When the industrial revolution came around, and tractors started displacing human (and animal) labor, and the rise of cities began, workers typically worked 6-7 days a week, 60 hours if you were lucky, but more likely 80-100.


It was several decades after the rise of the (mechanical) machines that we had a major paradigm shift toward "8 for work, 8 for sleep, 8 for yourself" and this concept we all take for granted of a "weekend".

That change, where people (who weren't born into the upper class) have "free time" they can spend chatting on internet forums, that was a huge, society changing shift, which was hard fought.  People literally died for it.  Employers did everything they could to stop it.


In other words, when machines were invented, it really was different.  There really were hundreds of thousands of jobs lost, and they were never replaced with anything.  Which is why now everyone works less.  Having fewer working hours means that the same number of jobs can be divided among more people.


If robots do most jobs, and 90% are eliminated and not replaced, we could all have 4 hour work weeks, but with the same total pay (i.e. everyone would make 10x the current hourly rate).  The economy would support it.  But with our current system of economics, private property, and of course overtime laws, what would happen is we would have 95% unemployment, and the last 5% of people would work 40 hour weeks.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #439 on: September 15, 2015, 06:46:43 AM »

If robots do most jobs, and 90% are eliminated and not replaced, we could all have 4 hour work weeks, but with the same total pay (i.e. everyone would make 10x the current hourly rate).  The economy would support it.  But with our current system of economics, private property, and of course overtime laws, what would happen is we would have 95% unemployment, and the last 5% of people would work 40 hour weeks.

You seem to be saying the last time automation really look off, the long-term effects were, for the majority of working people, a reduction in working hours to the 9-5. Free time, weekends etc. Jobs were lost, and never replaced, because we all just look more leisure time. I totally agree.

But, you are saying that when it happens again it would be different because of "our current system of economics, private property". But think of last time this happened. Ownership was concentrated among a tiny tiny elite. In Victorian England, at the time of the Industrial Revolution, landowners, and then an emerging bourgeois of business owners controlled everything, including voting rights.

So I don't understand what you think is different this time around? (not being argumentative, I actually can't understand). Is it unions? Because to me, wealth seems less concentrated than it used to be (pre-industrialisation, when the Aristocracy owned everything and we were just allowed to subsistence farm their land for a cut of the crops). I should fact check though, because perhaps I'm making an assumption and wealth is now more concentrated. Maybe the difference is corporations v. aristocratic families. Is that it? Corporations can build much more wealth, whereas the Duke of Devonshire can only own so much land before he meets the boundary of the Earl of Strafford*?

*locations not historically accurate because I'm mixing up time periods, but you get the idea.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #440 on: September 15, 2015, 08:38:24 AM »

If robots do most jobs, and 90% are eliminated and not replaced, we could all have 4 hour work weeks, but with the same total pay (i.e. everyone would make 10x the current hourly rate).  The economy would support it.  But with our current system of economics, private property, and of course overtime laws, what would happen is we would have 95% unemployment, and the last 5% of people would work 40 hour weeks.

You seem to be saying the last time automation really look off, the long-term effects were, for the majority of working people, a reduction in working hours to the 9-5. Free time, weekends etc. Jobs were lost, and never replaced, because we all just look more leisure time. I totally agree.

But, you are saying that when it happens again it would be different because of "our current system of economics, private property". But think of last time this happened. Ownership was concentrated among a tiny tiny elite. In Victorian England, at the time of the Industrial Revolution, landowners, and then an emerging bourgeois of business owners controlled everything, including voting rights.

So I don't understand what you think is different this time around? (not being argumentative, I actually can't understand). Is it unions? Because to me, wealth seems less concentrated than it used to be (pre-industrialisation, when the Aristocracy owned everything and we were just allowed to subsistence farm their land for a cut of the crops). I should fact check though, because perhaps I'm making an assumption and wealth is now more concentrated. Maybe the difference is corporations v. aristocratic families. Is that it? Corporations can build much more wealth, whereas the Duke of Devonshire can only own so much land before he meets the boundary of the Earl of Strafford*?

*locations not historically accurate because I'm mixing up time periods, but you get the idea.


I'm not sure how to find data for pre-democracy empires and aristocracies (what with factoring not only inflation but exchanged rates to no-longer-in-existence-currencies - it is unlikely to have ever been much more unbalanced, because pre-industrialization there simply wasn't as much total wealth in exsistence) but we are in fact at the worst wealth inequality our nation has ever seen




The last time it was this bad, we did change the system.
We started regulating banks (Glass–Steagall, FDIC) and the stock market (SEC). 
We created the social safety net - Social Security, food stamps, and the FHA. 
This was when we outlawed child labor, instituted the 40-hour work week, and created the first minimum wage.
It was when unions started to be strong enough to have real influence.
Public Works was created, providing many major projects (the San Francisco Bay Bridge, the Lincoln Tunnel, La Guardia airport, hydroelectric dams, schools, hospitals, the nationwide electric network, etc) on the federal level.

In other words, really major reorganization of how we as a society handle economics, labor and wealth distribution.
Some of these changes lasted to this day - others have been repealed or gradually pushed back, which helped bring us back to where we were (and helped trigger our recent recession)

Obviously there was a long time between 1820 and 1920 - but the peak of the graph didn't happen overnight.  Both the technology and the effects took time to fully establish (Ford's assembly line wasn't until 1913).  Those steps 100 years after the revolution were a large part of what made the graph above peak, instead of continuing to climb.

What is different now is that while business and the rich strongly objected to those changes when they happened, a majority of ordinary middle class working Americans supported them.
Today half of Americans have principals with align with the interests of the rich - individualism over shared prosperity, and economic growth at all costs (regardless of how the benefits of that growth are distributed).  I don't think, politically, something equivalent to the New Deal could happen today.

This time part of the run up of concentration of wealth is due to computers (along with political changes giving corporations and banks more freedom, repealing Glas-Stegal, encouraging outsourcing as "free trade", etc).
But so far robots have only been able to take fairly menial jobs.

We've still got some time before we get to 100 years from when this new revolution started
Its probably just a coincidence that the graph starts going back up the same year that the TRS-80, Commodore PET, and Apple II came out, but it is certainly a funny one to underline my argument!
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #441 on: September 20, 2015, 08:46:25 AM »
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #442 on: September 20, 2015, 12:31:11 PM »
Automation management and over reliance on automation have been an important topic in airline training for many years. It's getting a lot of attention but to some extent it's common sense. If you're overloaded trying to program the automation, turn it off, fly the plane, and let the non flying pilot sort it out.

The "children of the magenta" video is great.

Pilot skill degradation is a big problem, a middle eastern airline did a study and found that its pilots were flying for a total of like 30 seconds over 6 months, the rest of the time they the computer was flying waypoints or headings.  Requiring pilots of automated airplanes to continue flying simple single engine airplanes could go a long way in aviation safety but will never happen.

Reguarding stalls specifically, this is one of the last few 'tall poles' in commercial aviation safety.  The FAA is in the process of requiring recurrent stall training, in past airline pilots did not have to do any sort of stall work once they start flying anything with more than 4 seats (more or less).  Some of the stall related incidents were due to bad simulators and bad training and very tired crew. 

AirBus has in past activity calmed that there airplanes cant stall-this is monumentally stupid-all airfoils can stall.  AirFrance 447 changed the company line.  I have flown the 447 scenario in a full up simulator and even knowing what is happening it is VERY disorientating (half the instruments conflict with each other), still pilot error but eye opening.  In a car it would be like having the gas petal all the way down, the rpm counter at 8000, but no engine noise, the speedometer reading -3333 and total darkness out the windscreen.
I know some airlines have more restrictive policies on automation use than others. At my airline the autopilot is only required above FL 200 (that's approximately 20,000 ft above sea level for non pilots). That time is basically the boring, fly straight ahead part of the flight. Many will hand fly up to that altitude while hand flying on descent widely varies. I don't think anyone would be close to 30 seconds in a day much less six months.

Stall training has been required at every recurrent training for the eight years I've been in the industry, though the philosophy changed after Colgan 3407. No longer is anyone training to power out of it with minimum altitude loss. There's much more emphasis on lowering the nose which is a good change.

I'm not sure Airbus ever said their aircraft cannot be stalled, just that it wouldn't under normal operating conditions (normal flight control laws). When the instruments on Air France 447 failed the aircraft reverted to a more basic control law without stall protection and perhaps one of the pilots did not understand this. I agree that it's a very disorienting situation.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #443 on: September 20, 2015, 04:18:17 PM »
I think some of the example they provide will not hold up 10+ years down the road.  There have been studies where people feel like robots are more empathetic than humans.  If you have to pay a premium to use a human I think people would skip the salesperson, etc.  Interesting concept though.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-to-keep-your-job-in-a-world-of-automation-122831704.html#
The sales person in a shop might get replaced because they get so much
customers and their time go to calculating food prices etc.

However I work currently in marketing/sales and I think you are dead wrong if you can replace a top salesman or saleswomen with a robot... specially if there is face to face interaction live and not through a computer screen.

In fact human connection jobs are in fact likely to last next 100 years at least! However can you program a robot to be more emphatic? Yes, but it is extremely expensive to create an exact human looking robot with high AI. In addition top salesmen or saleswomen can also fake emotions though no doubt many emotions are true also and in the long turn it is best if everyone is happy the customer and salesperson.

I want to post this again:
I'm a controls engineer that programs robots and PLC's I also do computer and web programming. I've had a older coworker mention that it's our job to take out other people's jobs. While that's true, I've worked in a lot of mostly empty buildings that used to be crammed full, I think people get stuck in this thought that a job becoming obsolete doesn't create jobs at the same time.
No body would be silly enough to get pissy today about the invention of the cotton gin removing tons of jobs, we've all found other jobs. It's the same in the computerized industrial world. If computers take the pressure of human processing, we as a culture just freed up a ton of manpower to do other things.

I would say there is a growing disparity in job types, generally either technical or not and paid semi ok or not. and there is a exponential growth difference between the .1%ers and us. This could be contributed to computers possibly.

Job's becoming obsolete though is one of the big reasons I try to use to convince friends and family save and invest more. I've heard many stories of people going from $80k/year to $40k or less with next to nothing saved.
Good post I agree with you though I live in Europe and use euro currency I must say sure true logic.

I am an IT engineer and what job do I have now? Nothing even remotely related to IT and it is part time but the pay is fairly decent and it involves marketing/sales face to face human interaction.

I don't complain since I rent 3 apartments to other people and don't live on rent myself the income together with my part time job is good. I have worked for many years in iT before, but nowadays IT is among the top unemployed groups in my country.

Now robots can replace a lot and have already done in the industry/automation field but those harder to replace is customer service the pleasure factor.

When will robots replace the human interaction i.e soft touch meetings I use in marketing&sales every lawful nice touch to get the customer?

Let me give a more extreme example in my country prostitution is legal as it should be. When will robots replace prostitutes? My guess that will not happen for next 100 years because creating an exact human looking robot is possible, but extremely expensive. We will instead have an increase in human interaction jobs and prostitutes who work since the other jobs have been gradually replaced with robots.

Well of course I don't know for sure about next 100 years, but in prostitution field most customers want real humans and not robots. Oh I have seen documentary about today's sex robots, but they  are not even near same level as elite prostitutes in my country and the western world.

Safe sex with Robots? Maybe, but today's deaths due to HIV happen mostly to people who don't treat it because there exist very effective medicine vs HIV and do not even try to compare that to an aggressive and lethal cancer.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2015, 04:24:52 PM by Landlord2015 »

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #444 on: September 21, 2015, 07:33:08 AM »

...
I know some airlines have more restrictive policies on automation use than others. At my airline the autopilot is only required above FL 200 (that's approximately 20,000 ft above sea level for non pilots). That time is basically the boring, fly straight ahead part of the flight. Many will hand fly up to that altitude while hand flying on descent widely varies. I don't think anyone would be close to 30 seconds in a day much less six months.

Stall training has been required at every recurrent training for the eight years I've been in the industry, though the philosophy changed after Colgan 3407. No longer is anyone training to power out of it with minimum altitude loss. There's much more emphasis on lowering the nose which is a good change.

I'm not sure Airbus ever said their aircraft cannot be stalled, just that it wouldn't under normal operating conditions (normal flight control laws). When the instruments on Air France 447 failed the aircraft reverted to a more basic control law without stall protection and perhaps one of the pilots did not understand this. I agree that it's a very disorienting situation.

Yes things very more than most outsiders would think between airlines flying the same airplanes and in the US/west vs else where.

Airbus did not put it in a press release but it was in a 'public' industry forum. 

Your stall training is it to shaker/pusher/warring/etc or actually into stall; there is still a margin before proper stall break when you are at shaker/pusher?  I have talked to experienced pilots that have said shaker is stall - no it is not.  Minimizing altitude loss is (unless the trees are already big) f-ing stupid, high altitude stalls can take thousands of feet to recover from.  Most/all commercial aircraft training sims do not model stall/post stall aerodynamics correctly, what I have seen out in the wild is wrong to the point of negative training when you get past shaker/pusher/warring.  The sims show benign and controllable aircraft, where they really are anything but.

447: When it dropped into its degraded mode that pilot was flying a plane he had spend extremely few hours (minutes?) flying and it is extremely sensitive to pilot inputs. 
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #445 on: September 21, 2015, 09:30:21 AM »

Your stall training is it to shaker/pusher/warring/etc or actually into stall; there is still a margin before proper stall break when you are at shaker/pusher?  I have talked to experienced pilots that have said shaker is stall - no it is not.  Minimizing altitude loss is (unless the trees are already big) f-ing stupid, high altitude stalls can take thousands of feet to recover from.  Most/all commercial aircraft training sims do not model stall/post stall aerodynamics correctly, what I have seen out in the wild is wrong to the point of negative training when you get past shaker/pusher/warring.  The sims show benign and controllable aircraft, where they really are anything but.

447: When it dropped into its degraded mode that pilot was flying a plane he had spend extremely few hours (minutes?) flying and it is extremely sensitive to pilot inputs.

Our simulator training involves recovery at shaker in most cases, with usually one held until the pusher activates. If you get to the pusher you still aren't stalled, but you have to try to get there. It takes effort to actually stall when the controls are actively trying to prevent it. We also practice high altitude recovery yearly. As you said, it's usually around 4,000 feet to properly recover. Just messing around with extra time at the end of a session I've seen how the simulator models a stall and I don't believe it. It seems far too benign for a swept wing jet.

I don't have a problem with teaching recovery at the shaker and not going to a full stall because I don't want pilots getting used to the shaker being activated. I want the instinct when it activates to be immediately lowering the nose. I always thought it was a little strange when instructing in light aircraft that we taught over and over recovery from actual stalls and just told our students "good job, but remember, when you're out on your own recover at the first sign of an impending stall like buffeting or the horn activating." We do a great job of desensitizing student pilots to the cues of an impending stall while we practice full stalls and slow flight (stall horn blaring for minutes on end).

Really, it's amazing that something so basic is one of the remaining "tall poles" as you put it. I can think of three off the top of my head in the last decade that have to do with automation and pilots simply not flying the plane and monitoring airspeed. Both Turkish 1951 and Asiana 214 would have been prevented if the crew had simply turned off the automation and flown the airplane once things started looking off. Air France 447 would have been prevented with very, very basic airmanship but was probably due to a misunderstanding of the automation and it's protections and a breakdown in CRM that prevented the other crew members from recognizing the error on pilot was making until it was too late.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #446 on: September 21, 2015, 09:50:59 AM »
Now I almost feel bad for mentioning the pilots and automation bit. This thread kind of went all off kilter. So I'll try to bring it back on topic. I didn't realize we had so many aerospace related people here.

So it seems that everyone is kind of in agreement with the FAA, in that automation in airplanes have a tendency to reduce either the pilot skill, or the pilot training. So one could draw a line blaming our current implementation of automation to failures. So do all of you think that we need less automation in airplanes, or better automation and remove the human from the equation?
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AlanStache

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #447 on: September 21, 2015, 10:38:48 AM »
Now I almost feel bad for mentioning the pilots and automation bit. This thread kind of went all off kilter. So I'll try to bring it back on topic. I didn't realize we had so many aerospace related people here.

So it seems that everyone is kind of in agreement with the FAA, in that automation in airplanes have a tendency to reduce either the pilot skill, or the pilot training. So one could draw a line blaming our current implementation of automation to failures. So do all of you think that we need less automation in airplanes, or better automation and remove the human from the equation?

IF we are to have a carbon based pilot at the pointy end then they need to be well trained and know how to turn the computer off and FLY THE DAMN PLANE.  ELSE we need to be be putting more energies into more automation (end-to-end) with less reliance on carbon.  There will always be someone with a smart uniform and nice hat that tells you the weather sitting in the cockpit but long term they will be doing less and less, IMHO.

"Just messing around with extra time at the end of a session I've seen how the simulator models a stall and I don't believe it. It seems far too benign for a swept wing jet."  100%.  Problem is how many pilots see that messing around think that is real and dont fear the stall as they should.

Yep you have to fight to get past the pusher, you should not get into full stall but it has been done... Idea is that pilots should see what is there and have some experience with it.  What I have seen is that pilots would train past shaker/pusher/etc into full stall then before exiting the sim do one or two with proper 'recover at shaker' technique. 

"So one could draw a line blaming our current implementation of automation to failures."  I think that 'blame' goes to far.  Remember US commercial aviation is so safe it is almost hard to calculate failure rates!  But we do know we have some problem areas that are related to human interaction and dependence on automation and that we have some pilots who have trouble with flying the damn airplane.  (yes I know how scary that that last sentence sounds, but go reread the third sentence.) 

Edit: Sorry for going so far OT.  And if I did make you a bit afraid to fly know that I am literally right now heading to the airport for work travel. 
« Last Edit: September 21, 2015, 10:40:20 AM by AlanStache »
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #448 on: September 21, 2015, 10:54:03 AM »
Now I almost feel bad for mentioning the pilots and automation bit. This thread kind of went all off kilter. So I'll try to bring it back on topic. I didn't realize we had so many aerospace related people here.

So it seems that everyone is kind of in agreement with the FAA, in that automation in airplanes have a tendency to reduce either the pilot skill, or the pilot training. So one could draw a line blaming our current implementation of automation to failures. So do all of you think that we need less automation in airplanes, or better automation and remove the human from the equation?

IF we are to have a carbon based pilot at the pointy end then they need to be well trained and know how to turn the computer off and FLY THE DAMN PLANE.  ELSE we need to be be putting more energies into more automation (end-to-end) with less reliance on carbon.  There will always be someone with a smart uniform and nice hat that tells you the weather sitting in the cockpit but long term they will be doing less and less, IMHO.

"Just messing around with extra time at the end of a session I've seen how the simulator models a stall and I don't believe it. It seems far too benign for a swept wing jet."  100%.  Problem is how many pilots see that messing around think that is real and dont fear the stall as they should.

Yep you have to fight to get past the pusher, you should not get into full stall but it has been done... Idea is that pilots should see what is there and have some experience with it.  What I have seen is that pilots would train past shaker/pusher/etc into full stall then before exiting the sim do one or two with proper 'recover at shaker' technique. 

"So one could draw a line blaming our current implementation of automation to failures."  I think that 'blame' goes to far.  Remember US commercial aviation is so safe it is almost hard to calculate failure rates!  But we do know we have some problem areas that are related to human interaction and dependence on automation and that we have some pilots who have trouble with flying the damn airplane.  (yes I know how scary that that last sentence sounds, but go reread the third sentence.) 

Edit: Sorry for going so far OT.  And if I did make you a bit afraid to fly know that I am literally right now heading to the airport for work travel.

Didn't make me afraid to fly at all. I hate living my life in fear. As far as my blame comment goes, I was thinking more along the lines of how the FAA viewed it. I never said anything about who is actually at fault, but who gets the blame, that's all. And don't sweat going OT, it's still somewhat related, and actually provides a good insight as to views/fears on automation in this specific industry. Interestingly enough, there will be/is less discussion or thought out arguments when it comes to automation in consumer vehicles. :-)
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AlanStache

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #449 on: September 21, 2015, 01:29:18 PM »
...

Didn't make me afraid to fly at all. I hate living my life in fear. As far as my blame comment goes, I was thinking more along the lines of how the FAA viewed it. I never said anything about who is actually at fault, but who gets the blame, that's all. And don't sweat going OT, it's still somewhat related, and actually provides a good insight as to views/fears on automation in this specific industry. Interestingly enough, there will be/is less discussion or thought out arguments when it comes to automation in consumer vehicles. :-)

You should be afraid to fly-it is f-ing scary-thing can kill you in painful ways! :-)  I am scared to fly, it is largely knowledge of statistics that lets me get on an airplane :-)

It is a bit like investing after you read the prospectus on an sp500 eft; your gut reaction is to run in the other way but hopefully your brain can over power it and let you buy the market for the long term.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2015, 01:38:16 PM by AlanStache »
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