Author Topic: Robots and their impact on the future  (Read 342622 times)

By the River

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1700 on: July 10, 2018, 08:10:08 AM »
yep there are jobs we just dont have the skills to fill the jobs currently and this will continue to increase over time as we drop menial labor jobs in favor of automation - like truck drivers what marketable skill do they have - or fry cooks - they could potentially move to more upscale restaurants and be cooks.  but as we automate jobs away and more skills are required to do the new jobs employers may be forced into doing more  training and bring in people with better soft skills/EQ that have an apptitude to learn. 

So whats the outcome of this- employers may start doing testing of potential employees to understand their apptitude for learning.  In the engineering world its not uncommon to test potential hires on the skill set but a basic apptitude or IQ or EQ test could be the new norm to obtain a job since the employer will be forced to commit extra resources to training.  It may also come with a pay back clause to keep you around or you forfeit some of the cost to train you.  similar to college reimbursement plans.

Agree with what you say but the basic IQ test has been effectively outlawed as a job requirement (Supreme Court case Griggs vs. Duke Power).   An unforeseen effect was that companies couldn't test so they took a college degree in lieu of an IQ test which led to many jobs requiring degrees which do not need one, leading to increased student debt, yada, yada, yada.   However, specific knowledge tests are still allowed which allows the engineering aptitude or other job specific tests

boarder42

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1701 on: July 10, 2018, 08:11:02 AM »
yep there are jobs we just dont have the skills to fill the jobs currently and this will continue to increase over time as we drop menial labor jobs in favor of automation - like truck drivers what marketable skill do they have - or fry cooks - they could potentially move to more upscale restaurants and be cooks.  but as we automate jobs away and more skills are required to do the new jobs employers may be forced into doing more  training and bring in people with better soft skills/EQ that have an apptitude to learn. 

So whats the outcome of this- employers may start doing testing of potential employees to understand their apptitude for learning.  In the engineering world its not uncommon to test potential hires on the skill set but a basic apptitude or IQ or EQ test could be the new norm to obtain a job since the employer will be forced to commit extra resources to training.  It may also come with a pay back clause to keep you around or you forfeit some of the cost to train you.  similar to college reimbursement plans.

I can see things going this way, too, and I worry about the folks who fall "below the line" as that line continues to rise.  Since we value work not just for earning a living, but as part of identity and a measure of value to society, the folks who are shut out are going to have hard time.  Maybe defending against this is why so-called "bullshit jobs" are on the rise?

how old are you - the millenial generation does not identify and measure value based on their profession like the previous generations did.  Most of my generation identifies with the activities and things we enjoy doing in life not who gives us the money to allow us to do those things.  So while this may be more difficult for previous generations to grasp i believe the way the younger crowd is trending the job is part of my life identity wont be a hurdle.  the hurdle will be paying those that fall below that line a UBI.

I'm a Gen X'er, so I understand what you're saying -- though I think it's risky to over-generalize.  Boomers are going to be around a long time, and they vote.  I expect them to continue to see the world through the lens of their own values, and judge those who don't conform to their view of things.  That's a significant drag against something like UBI, gov't guaranteed jobs, or even subsidized re-training.

correct thats why i said the biggest hurdle will be UBI you can include other socialist issues as well.  but thats where the hurdle will lie
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TempusFugit

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1702 on: July 11, 2018, 04:48:26 PM »
Agree with what you say but the basic IQ test has been effectively outlawed as a job requirement (Supreme Court case Griggs vs. Duke Power).   An unforeseen effect was that companies couldn't test so they took a college degree in lieu of an IQ test which led to many jobs requiring degrees which do not need one, leading to increased student debt, yada, yada, yada.   However, specific knowledge tests are still allowed which allows the engineering aptitude or other job specific tests

That's exactly correct, IMO.  This is why a good percentage of 'students' in college really have no business being there.  It isn't their fault, it's that companies use a college degree (in almost anything) as a proxy for an IQ test.  Now a degree is basically a 'job license'. 

There are lots of things that fall into the category of 'unintended consequences' and this would appear to be one. 

The elimination of lower wage jobs will be another as the fight for higher a minimum wage prices those humans out of the market. Not only are the employers motivated by cost reduction in terms of automation vs human beings, but as a society we are all becoming more and more comfortable with machine interaction over human interaction anyway, which boosts sales. 

I was surprised by the results of putting those ordering terminals on the tables at fast-casual restaurants, which showed an increase in sales.  Making the ordering of dessert, etc, an impulse decision eliminates the speed bump of waiting for the server to come by and also the potential social pressure of people who might benefit from skipping a dessert feeling embarrassed to do so.

TempusFugit

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1703 on: July 11, 2018, 05:10:44 PM »
Listened to a radiolab podcast the other day that was about the Turing test and how much closer we are today to having chatbots that can pass.

https://www.wnycstudios.org/story/more-or-less-human

In some of their conclusions about why we are so much closer now to being unable to differentiate machine from person, they speculated that our interaction with technology - our phones primarily: think autocomplete, etc - is making us think and communicate more like machines rather than it being purely a matter of the machines being more able to mimic us.  Our communication curve is bending downward (or machineward) just as the machines' is bending upward. 

I thought that was an interesting possible factor.  I also think that part of the issue is that in the modern world, when we are corresponding electronically with an actual real-world human being, there's a really good chance that that person is not a native English speaker, or are from a different cultural background, and therefore we have all had to start adapting to interactions with people who have issues with our natural language and communication.  We expect some difficulties and make allowances.

Idiomatic expressions, for example, are problematic in many workplaces due to this kind of barrier.  Regional slang or references to erstwhile common cultural touchpoints is also no longer effective.  I can't make Seinfeld references in my office and expect everyone to know what I'm talking about.  I can't reference something from US culture a decade ago, like a common toy or TV show, or even political events. So my communication style has definitely changed.  It is more plain now.  It lacks the old 'flavor' that would have made it more 'human' in some ways. 

I think that was an obvious point in the context of that discussion, but I'm also (perhaps cynically) pretty sure they didn't want to mention that for obvious reasons.

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1704 on: July 12, 2018, 03:20:22 PM »
Interesting take on the robot human interaction TempusFugit.

I see the changes in communication when you communicating to my children through text.  They think it is funny that I capitalize and put punctuation. 

Younger employees tend to communicate through IM vs. face to face even if I am sitting next to them. 

Robots are going to be able to blend in fine as we are mudding up our ways of communication.

swampwiz

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1705 on: July 12, 2018, 04:00:00 PM »
What is amazing is the butterfly effect of this unfortunate death.  This could change the entire ride share future.  Uber coukd lose market share to another company with better tech.  Self driving systems will most certainly be much better now, thry have no choice but to improve.  The death of that individual could cause improvements that will save thousands of lives in the future.

The death of a pedestrian has always been expected, so had this not happened, it would have happened someplace, sometime else.

tomsang

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maizeman

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1707 on: July 13, 2018, 09:16:26 AM »
Definitely worth the read. Also I clearly went into the wrong field: "It was by far the largest fee I had ever been offered for a talk — about half my annual professor’s salary — all to deliver some insight on the subject of 'the future of technology.'"

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They started out innocuously enough. Ethereum or bitcoin? Is quantum computing a real thing? Slowly but surely, however, they edged into their real topics of concern. Which region will be less impacted by the coming climate crisis: New Zealand or Alaska? Is Google really building Ray Kurzweil a home for his brain, and will his consciousness live through the transition, or will it die and be reborn as a whole new one? Finally, the CEO of a brokerage house explained that he had nearly completed building his own underground bunker system and asked, “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?” The Event. That was their euphemism for the environmental collapse, social unrest, nuclear explosion, unstoppable virus, or Mr. Robot hack that takes everything down. This single question occupied us for the rest of the hour.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1708 on: July 15, 2018, 08:26:31 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/11/survival-of-the-richest-the-wealthy-are-plotting-to-leave-us-behind.html

Interesting take on the future.
Very worthwhile read, though suffering (and benefiting) from taking a very particular point of view on the issue.

One argument against the mantra here (stop amassing wealth once you have enough to glide through retirement) is we don't know what new products and capabilities will be on offer in e.g. 40 years. If brain uploads/potential effective immortality (ignoring the the philosophical questions for now) are available then for $5M, should we save more now just in case?

Johnez

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1709 on: July 16, 2018, 02:39:08 AM »
Interesting article on AI and the human mind:

https://aeon.co/essays/are-humans-really-blind-to-the-gorilla-on-the-basketball-court

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Deciding what is relevant and meaningful, and what is not, are vital to intelligence and rationality. And relevance and meaning continue to be outside the realm of AI (as illustrated by the so-called frame problem). Computers can be programmed to recognise and attend to certain features of the world – which need to be clearly specified and programmed a priori. But they cannot be programmed to make new observations, to ask novel questions or to meaningfully adjust to changing circumstances. The human ability to ask new questions, to generate hypotheses, and to identify and find novelty is unique and not programmable. No statistical procedure allows one to somehow see a mundane, taken-for-granted observation in a radically different and new way. That’s where humans come in.

toganet

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1710 on: July 16, 2018, 09:09:10 AM »
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-organizations-and-work/ai-automation-and-the-future-of-work-ten-things-to-solve-for

Cool article with some forecasts of how automation will impact work between now and 2030, and some recommendations on what to solve for.  For the impatient, the 10 things are:

  • Ensuring robust economic and productivity growth.
  • Fostering business dynamism.
  • Evolving education systems and learning for a changed workplace.
  • Investing in human capital.
  • Improving labor-market dynamism.
  • Redesigning work.
  • Rethinking incomes.
  • Rethinking transition support and safety nets for workers affected.
  • Investing in drivers of demand for work.
  • Embracing AI and automation safely.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1711 on: July 17, 2018, 07:14:24 PM »
Interesting article on AI and the human mind:

https://aeon.co/essays/are-humans-really-blind-to-the-gorilla-on-the-basketball-court

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Deciding what is relevant and meaningful, and what is not, are vital to intelligence and rationality. And relevance and meaning continue to be outside the realm of AI (as illustrated by the so-called frame problem). Computers can be programmed to recognise and attend to certain features of the world – which need to be clearly specified and programmed a priori. But they cannot be programmed to make new observations, to ask novel questions or to meaningfully adjust to changing circumstances. The human ability to ask new questions, to generate hypotheses, and to identify and find novelty is unique and not programmable. No statistical procedure allows one to somehow see a mundane, taken-for-granted observation in a radically different and new way. That’s where humans come in.
Thanks for sharing that, the notion of the Suchbild is familiar to me but I never knew there was a word for it! It very much reminds of of Donald Hoffman's discussion on (e.g. the hard problem of consciousness [Hoffman is on for about 30 minutes but David Chalmers is also worthwhile; Daniel Dennett is funny since he acts like a total asshat as usual!]). Hoffman argues in favor of an explanation based on conscious-realism (there are only conscious agents) that perhaps can be taken to suggest that there are only Suchbilds of various conscious agents that reflect the fitness function of those agents.

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...in 2008 Chris Anderson, then editor of Wired, boldly proclaimed ‘the end of theory’, as the ‘data deluge makes the scientific method obsolete
The refutation, mentioned in the article, of this notion by Popper more than 40 years prior to Anderson's assertion is amusing and quite convincing. At work, I had "Lean Six Sigma" training that seemed to hinge a bit too much on the step Collect ALL the Data and pray it magically tells you what is wrong.