Author Topic: Robots and their impact on the future  (Read 227903 times)

matchewed

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1550 on: August 31, 2017, 06:40:57 AM »
In Germany they use mopeds, which makes a lot more sense than cars too.

What, in the States, pizzas are delivered by car?!

Yep. Chalk it up to the car industry developing the infrastructure through the government. Less planes trains more automobiles.

theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1551 on: August 31, 2017, 07:08:06 AM »
In Germany they use mopeds, which makes a lot more sense than cars too.

What, in the States, pizzas are delivered by car?!

Yep. Chalk it up to the car industry developing the infrastructure through the government. Less planes trains more automobiles.

Mopeds still use the roads though, so they are dependent on the same automobile infrastructure. It just seems like a lot of petrol to waste, and much slower, since cars can't skip traffic the way a bike can.

maizeman

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1552 on: August 31, 2017, 07:40:56 AM »
Apparently there are a number of startups developing much smaller robots for food delivery, although to my eye, they look like they'd be feasible in extremely dense urban centers (although that's a bias you see with the business models of a lot of startups coming out of SFO).

Starship is one example:

https://www.recode.net/2017/1/18/14306674/starship-robot-food-delivery-washington-dc-silicon-valley
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toganet

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1553 on: August 31, 2017, 07:52:04 AM »
Interesting article I came across yesterday on this topic: https://qz.com/1064679/a-new-t-shirt-sewing-robot-can-make-as-many-shirts-per-hour-as-17-factory-workers/

From the article:

Quote
...in a completely automated production line, the cost of human labor works out to about $0.33 per shirt. For context, to produce something like a denim shirt in Bangladesh, you might pay about $0.22 in labor costs, according to an estimate from the Institute for Global Labour and Human Rights. That same labor would be $7.47 in the US, putting the labor cost for Tianyuan Garmentsí American-made shirt about on par with one of the cheapest labor markets in the world.

Quote
Understandably, the rise of automated sewing has raised concerns that it could displace countless low-wage garment workers in Asia in the coming decades. Last year, the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimated that around 64% of textile, clothing, and footwear workers in Indonesia could eventually be replaced by robots. In Vietnam the number was 86%, and in Cambodia, 88%. The report noted that workers could get better wages if governments and employers start preparing them for new high-tech jobs. If they donít, the consequences could be dire.

I didn't see a mention of the number of jobs the new factory would create.

maizeman

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1554 on: August 31, 2017, 08:07:30 AM »
The article mentions you need one human handler per robot, and they're installing 21 production lines. Add in a couple folks for management/HR/IT and let's call it 25 total jobs created. 
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aspiringnomad

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1555 on: September 03, 2017, 12:46:17 AM »
Apparently there are a number of startups developing much smaller robots for food delivery, although to my eye, they look like they'd be feasible in extremely dense urban centers (although that's a bias you see with the business models of a lot of startups coming out of SFO).

Starship is one example:

https://www.recode.net/2017/1/18/14306674/starship-robot-food-delivery-washington-dc-silicon-valley

I just had a delivery bot scoot by me in DC the other day. Fourth or fifth I've seen, all with handlers keeping a close eye on them. This one had the longest "leash" I've seen so far, as the handler was walking at least 30 feet behind it. It navigated around some hedges that were poking out onto the sidewalk quite deftly.

AlanStache

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1556 on: September 04, 2017, 07:34:20 AM »
I just looked it up and Amazon announced Drone Delivery in Dec 2013 (first mentioned in this thread in Jan 2014).  In my area over that last 6 months Amazon has started using independent human contract drivers to directly deliver packages.  Drones seem so obvious and simple but there many practical obstacles.  Jeff Bezos has been funding a rocket company at $1 Billion / year for many years and they are much further along in getting a payload to orbit than Drone Delivery is to getting a toothbrush 20 miles. 
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theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1557 on: September 04, 2017, 07:48:52 AM »
Apparently there are a number of startups developing much smaller robots for food delivery, although to my eye, they look like they'd be feasible in extremely dense urban centers (although that's a bias you see with the business models of a lot of startups coming out of SFO).

Starship is one example:

https://www.recode.net/2017/1/18/14306674/starship-robot-food-delivery-washington-dc-silicon-valley

I just had a delivery bot scoot by me in DC the other day. Fourth or fifth I've seen, all with handlers keeping a close eye on them. This one had the longest "leash" I've seen so far, as the handler was walking at least 30 feet behind it. It navigated around some hedges that were poking out onto the sidewalk quite deftly.

Wow! It will be interesting to see how they overcome theft issues (both of the contents and the robot).

Kriegsspiel

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1558 on: September 04, 2017, 10:50:28 AM »
Yea definitely something to consider. I think once you take into consideration the vastly improved accuracy that robots have shown in other tests, lethal force becomes much more acceptable due to the near-elimination of collateral damage among the civilian population. Obviously it would be more efficient to leave the kill decision to the robot instead of having to beam some sort of visual to a command center for a human to consider. The big choice is whether to actually arm the delivery drone itself, or to have an armed swarm/escort accompany it (or both). I think you could really go either way. I'm pretty psyched to see how the escalation between the delivery-drones and the bandit-drones develops.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1559 on: September 04, 2017, 04:34:29 PM »
In Germany they use mopeds, which makes a lot more sense than cars too.

What, in the States, pizzas are delivered by car?!

Yep. Chalk it up to the car industry developing the infrastructure through the government. Less planes trains more automobiles.

Mopeds still use the roads though, so they are dependent on the same automobile infrastructure. It just seems like a lot of petrol to waste, and much slower, since cars can't skip traffic the way a bike can.


Americans just really don't do mopeds, at all.  Country had lots of space and fairly low density at first, and fell into car culture.  Motorcycles are considered a (dangerous) recreational vehicle.  Scooters, maybe a few college students in dense cities.  Mopeds?  Basically non-existent.


I did once get a pizza delivery by skateboard once, in Berkeley
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pdxmonkey

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1560 on: September 04, 2017, 10:54:11 PM »
The legal definition of a moped in Oregon limits them to 30 mph. Arterial roads often have 45 mph speed limits which means people doing 50... Grocery stores tend to new on arterials. Doing 20 mph less than surrounding traffic is generally going to be somewhat unsafe. Motorcycle would likely be safer because you can go the same speed as other traffic which should in theory be less likely to result in an accident.

So yeah. Nobody uses mopeds. I only know one person in my life who owned one and if I remember that was in middle school so they couldn't even legally drive it.

theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1561 on: September 05, 2017, 02:56:52 AM »
Love the phrase "bandit-drones"!

I'm currently reading an historical novel with lots of highwaymen and bandits. Everything old is new again.

Optimiser

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1562 on: September 05, 2017, 09:13:36 AM »
I just sold my scooter yesterday. It was perfect for town I lived in, but I work in the next town over now and there is no way to get there without going on roads with 45mph limits. I sold it to a student who was really excited to be able to ride it school.

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1563 on: September 15, 2017, 01:30:04 PM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2017/09/14/this-silicon-valley-startup-wants-to-replace-lawyers-with-robots/?utm_term=.716d86e350dc

"In the past two years, automation and artificial intelligence tools have become sophisticated enough to influence professionals and white collar work. Administrative assistants, radiologists, financial advisers ó and now lawyers ó have all become the targets of such software."

"JP Morgan recently marshaled an army of developers to build software that can do in seconds what it took lawyers 360,000 hours to do previously, the company said."




AlanStache

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1564 on: September 15, 2017, 01:48:41 PM »
...
"JP Morgan recently marshaled an army of developers to build software that can do in seconds what it took lawyers 360,000 hours to do previously, the company said."

I assumed that a light bulb changing robot was invented ages ago :-)
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Optimiser

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1565 on: September 15, 2017, 02:24:59 PM »
"JP Morgan recently marshaled an army of developers to build software that can do in seconds what it took lawyers 360,000 hours to do previously, the company said."

This is quite impressive assuming that:
A) Lawyers were previously the best at doing whatever this thing is
B) This thing is something worth doing

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1566 on: September 22, 2017, 08:48:11 AM »
Putin is scared about Robots eating us...  Does he know something? At first I thought it was a translation error.  Like technology is going to eat us alive when it comes to jobs.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4909172/Putin-reveals-fears-robots-one-day-eat-us.html

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1567 on: September 22, 2017, 09:46:02 AM »
Putin is scared about Robots eating us...  Does he know something? At first I thought it was a translation error.  Like technology is going to eat us alive when it comes to jobs.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4909172/Putin-reveals-fears-robots-one-day-eat-us.html

Wow, of all the things I worry about with AI, being eaten is bizarre.  I guess the reasoning goes that humans eat things like chickens and cows, but beyond that the logic breaks down.  Enslave us, shoot us, imprison us in virtual reality, cause unemployment, drive over us, turn us in to helpless consumers with weaponized advertising - sure, lots of reasonable possibilities, but eat us?  If it wasn't Putin, I'd think the guy was completely bonkers.
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OurTown

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1568 on: September 22, 2017, 09:53:24 AM »
It's like "Troll 2" but with robots.

Bakari

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1569 on: September 22, 2017, 09:58:41 AM »
Granted it made no sense - the very premise violates the most basic law of thermodynamics - but being eaten by robots was the backstory of the incredible popular "Matrix" movie series.


Remember?  Nuclear war or something blots out the sun,  so there is no longer any energy input, so the machines create human farms so they can extract energy from us.  How do we get the energy to continue to live?  Why, they feed us other humans of course!  That's not circular at all...


The entire fantasy land of the matrix itself was because humans apparently spontaneously die when in lifelong sensory deprivation.  And creating an interconnected detailed fantasy world is obviously a much better solution than just using, say, algae as a perpetual motion style energy source.


Maybe Putin just saw "The Matrix" for the first time.
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Bakari

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1570 on: September 22, 2017, 10:04:59 AM »
Anything I've said here useful or interesting?  Find a lot more of my thoughts here: http://randomthoughts.fyi

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1571 on: September 22, 2017, 10:51:30 AM »
Granted it made no sense - the very premise violates the most basic law of thermodynamics - but being eaten by robots was the backstory of the incredible popular "Matrix" movie series.

Remember?  Nuclear war or something blots out the sun,  so there is no longer any energy input, so the machines create human farms so they can extract energy from us.  How do we get the energy to continue to live?  Why, they feed us other humans of course!  That's not circular at all...

The entire fantasy land of the matrix itself was because humans apparently spontaneously die when in lifelong sensory deprivation.  And creating an interconnected detailed fantasy world is obviously a much better solution than just using, say, algae as a perpetual motion style energy source.

Maybe Putin just saw "The Matrix" for the first time.

Yeah, using Humans as an energy source was a logical error debunked by Futurama!  https://youtu.be/wSVlOAocn8E?t=3m40s  Surely Putin has someone on his staff that can inform him of this before he goes off the rails.
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GuitarStv

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1572 on: September 22, 2017, 11:06:25 AM »
C'mon, cut Putin some slack.  How many folks does he regularly come into contact with that you think would openly disagree with him no matter how crazy he sounds on an issue?  He's doing pretty well for his situation . . .

:P

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1573 on: September 24, 2017, 09:32:26 PM »
Yeah, using Humans as an energy source was a logical error debunked by Futurama!  https://youtu.be/wSVlOAocn8E?t=3m40s  Surely Putin has someone on his staff that can inform him of this before he goes off the rails.


holy crap, that makes so much sense!  Now I want to actually see that again, and the rest of them!
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1574 on: October 07, 2017, 07:35:20 PM »
http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2017/10/05/study-public-fears-growing-dominance-of-robots/


"White collar workers see tech as something positive that helps them get ahead and has improved their opportunities for career advancement, giving them agency to do their jobs better, make more money and get promotions. When we asked the same questions of working class folk, you donít get the same sense that itís something that is helpful to them or improves access to career opportunities.

He said that ďthe American public does not buy the notion that it will be good for everyone.Ē Americans believe that ďa small number of people [will] do well and everyone else loses their jobs to the robots.Ē It turns out, they may be right."


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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1575 on: October 07, 2017, 09:15:12 PM »
I'll have to look up the references, but an AI caucas was just formed.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1576 on: October 11, 2017, 10:39:29 PM »
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with a kid.
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1577 on: October 14, 2017, 04:08:31 PM »
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/google-pledges-1-billion-prepare-153900399.html

Google appears to be providing serious money to address this issue. I need to dig in more to see what it means.

mozar

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1578 on: October 14, 2017, 07:40:38 PM »
I walked into my manager's office last week and on his screen was a powerpoint presentation about how the office is planning on automating 20 to 90 percent of activities. He must have seen my eyes get big because he then clicked out of it.
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1579 on: October 16, 2017, 09:52:25 AM »
I walked into my manager's office last week and on his screen was a powerpoint presentation about how the office is planning on automating 20 to 90 percent of activities. He must have seen my eyes get big because he then clicked out of it.

Wow!  That would be a bit unsettling.  Would you be on the team to implement said change or are you looking for other outside opportunities?

mozar

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1580 on: October 16, 2017, 07:32:26 PM »
Quote
Wow!  That would be a bit unsettling.  Would you be on the team to implement said change or are you looking for other outside opportunities?

I'm definitely not looking for a new job. I don't feel like hopping again, especially so close to FIRE.

Even though I wasn't supposed to see that yes I am on the team to implement change. There is a member on my team whose sole job is to automate and we work together (he automates something, I write the new process). The office has tried and failed to automate but has failed miserably so we are the consultants who have come in to "improve" things.
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